Oil and Natural Gas

NG finished the week with the lowest ATR that I have seen.

NG went up 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced two break even trades and two winning trades. Please note that the last arrow is probably a false signal since the FxBay MACD is positive so it's likely that the last red candle will reverse.

NG went down 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced only one winning trade. As expected yesterday the last arrow was a false signal since the FxBay MACD was positive and stayed positive as the next brick was positive.

NG went down 1¢ today with an average ATR that again produced only one winning trade. It also looks like that the downtrend will continue at the opening of the new session as the FXBay MACD is negative.

NG went up 2¢ today with an average ATR that produced 1 winning trade and 2 break even trades.

NG went down 9¢ today with a higher than average ATR that produced no new trade except the continuation trade from Friday.

NG went down 6¢ today with a higher than average ATR that produced 1 nice short trade.

NG went up 6¢ today with an average ATR that produced an average short trade at the end of the session. Better would have been the continuation long trade from yesterday.

NG went up 1¢ today with a very low ATR that produced no trades. A very unusual flat trading day.

NG went down 1¢ today with a low ATR that produced 1 nice short trade.

NG went up 5¢ today with a slightly low ATR that produced 1 short trade not counting the trade that started at the beginning of the session which would have been a nice 6 ticks trade.

NG went up 7¢ today with average ATR that produced 1 nice long trade of 6 ticks and a small short trade.

NG ended up with the same price today as yesterday with an average ATR that produced 1 short trade.

Hi Hutch,

I've downloaded your Half Trend strategy and I'm very excited to test it.
I have one question though: you often write about the ATR in your posts.
Does it in any way influence your trading or the brick size you use, or do you just post it out of interest (since a high ATR means volatility which means higher likelihood of moving markets)?

Or is it because the indicator (Half Trend) gives more bad signals in lower ATR environments?

cheers, bippo

The Half Trend TT is immune to the ATR and also to the Renko brick size but sometimes it gives a bad signal. In the first picture below the signal should have been on the previous brick so it was a bad signal. On the other hand, since we enter into a trade at the opening of the next brick and the brick was in the wrong direction the bad signal had no effect since I didn't take that trade. Unless you have a lot of time on your hand I cannot recommend trading Natural Gas. Best is to trade high ATR GBP pairs or CFDs but CFDs are dangerous because of the high tick values. Trading low ATR pairs with low Renko bricks size can also be profitable depending on your time zone. I wasn't awake at 1 a.m. today to enter into the USDCAD trade.

Hi Bippo. In addition to the post above you may want to take a look at these charts. EURUSD 5 pips Renko and EURUSD 2 pips Renko. As you can see trading low ATR pairs is a lot more profitable using small Renko bricks.

NG went up 4¢ today with average ATR that produced a long trade of 4 ticks and a very small short trade.