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Natural gas trading

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  • Post #101
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  • Oct 10, 2019 10:31am Oct 10, 2019 10:31am
  •  Ll1979
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,931 Posts
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 98B, above expectations (97B) in October 4
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
 
1
  • Post #102
  • Quote
  • Oct 10, 2019 12:05pm Oct 10, 2019 12:05pm
  •  demontrade
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 98 Posts
Nat Gas today had a biggish impact even tho the data was largely in line with expectations:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: 1.png
Size: 30 KB
 
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  • Post #103
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  • Oct 10, 2019 12:08pm Oct 10, 2019 12:08pm
  •  LloydOz
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2019 | 784 Posts
Quoting Ll1979
Disliked
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 98B, above expectations (97B) in October 4
Ignored
This was, I think, anticipated, and well known, and therefore already built into the price. The 1 B difference from expectations is of little or no consequence in the scheme of things.

Yet another reason why I don't pay much attention to day to day news, or it becomes analysis paralysis.
 
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  • Post #104
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  • Oct 10, 2019 12:15pm Oct 10, 2019 12:15pm
  •  LloydOz
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2019 | 784 Posts
Quoting demontrade
Disliked
Nat Gas today had a biggish impact even tho the data was largely in line with expectations: {image}
Ignored
I think we'll have to agree to disagree - as I write, a few cents? The days trading range is about average, so far. Might be more yet to come after people have time to scratch their heads a bit and other stuff that people do over the next day or so. This is not uncommon.
 
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  • Post #105
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  • Oct 10, 2019 3:58pm Oct 10, 2019 3:58pm
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
{quote} This was, I think, anticipated, and well known, and therefore already built into the price. The 1 B difference from expectations is of little or no consequence in the scheme of things. Yet another reason why I don't pay much attention to day to day news, or it becomes analysis paralysis.
Ignored
I'm thrilled you decided to jump in this thread LloydOz! I noticed that you are a pure tech trader (for your sanity ) I totally get it!

Do you have any charts or trades that you may share? It would be awesome to see how you see things from the longer view, tech perspective. ☺

How long have you been trading? Thanks again and welcome Lloyd! You are appreciated
 
 
  • Post #106
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  • Oct 11, 2019 12:28am Oct 11, 2019 12:28am
  •  LloydOz
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2019 | 784 Posts
Quoting C8H18
Disliked
{quote} I'm thrilled you decided to jump in this thread LloydOz! I noticed that you are a pure tech trader (for your sanity ) I totally get it! Do you have any charts or trades that you may share? It would be awesome to see how you see things from the longer view, tech perspective. ☺ How long have you been trading? Thanks again and welcome Lloyd! You are appreciated
Ignored
Thankyou, you are too kind.

I do take notice of the news, can't help it - like that NG storage picture on the previous page was most interesting and "explains" things - but it does not affect my trading. I have post-grad qualifications in economics and can see through much of the fairly one dimensional analysis provided on that front by commentators. Of course I have views as to what "should" happen, but that thinking usually burns holes in the wallet.

Been learning now for about 30 years and its what is rubbish is what is important to know. Oh, where do I start on that? Forecasting methods are off limits for me, having critically analysed them and found them utter tosh (except in hindsight). They make my three remaining neurons hurt.

I have "long term" charts. They aren't much good for trading day to day - a filter. For trading I use some quite simple indicators, highly modified so you won't see them in any books. I have not shared any pics yet and will try to learn how.
 
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  • Post #107
  • Quote
  • Oct 11, 2019 3:30am Oct 11, 2019 3:30am
  •  C8H18
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Noob | 125 Posts
Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
{quote} Thankyou, you are too kind.
Ignored
I took a screenshot of that statement, which I shall present to my wife, the next time she tries to accuse me otherwise!

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
I do take notice of the news, can't help it - like that NG storage picture on the previous page was most interesting and "explains" things - but it does not affect my trading.
Ignored
Thank you for sharing your perception of importance and relevance.

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
I have post-grad qualifications in economics and can see through much of the fairly one dimensional analysis provided on that front by commentators. Of course I have views as to what "should" happen, but that thinking usually burns holes in the wallet.
Ignored
I knew it, in regard to your economic education!

Minimizing the reliance on the minute to minute fundamentals, is starting to become a common theme that I'm continually running into. It appears that all of the advanced traders eventually gravitate towards the tech-side of trading.

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
Been learning now for about 30 years and its what is rubbish is what is important to know.
Ignored
Woah! That's some serious time chief! I'm slowly piecing "it" together. One of my main fears is building the foundational fundamentals of experience on rubbish, and then having to tear it down, but then still being left with reminisces of the rubbishness in my foundation. Un-learning bad habits can be more painful then learning the habit anew!

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
Oh, where do I start on that? Forecasting methods are off limits for me, having critically analysed them and found them utter tosh (except in hindsight). They make my three remaining neurons hurt.
Ignored
Ok Lloyd!...It's clear you have far more neurons than 3! But I totally get it. We definitely don't want to put unnecessary/hogwash, loads on our cognition.

I REALLY and seriously only have 4 connecting neurons (2 of which fight each other all the time) so I'm taking that wisdom to heart!

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
I have "long term" charts. They aren't much good for trading day to day - a filter. For trading I use some quite simple indicators, highly modified so you won't see them in any books.
Ignored
This is another theme I'm starting to believe (which you are solidifying) is the simplicity aspect.

Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
I have not shared any pics yet and will try to learn how.
Ignored
There's no rush!

Really, thank you Lloyd, for sharing your boundless experience and wisdom. I've learned a substantial amount, from you and you've only made 5 posts!

I've got to hit the sack now, as it's been a long day, but I'll surely be following your posts and catching you around. It's been a pleasure! Have a spectacular weekend if I'm unable to hop-on tomorrow!
 
 
  • Post #108
  • Quote
  • Oct 11, 2019 3:32am Oct 11, 2019 3:32am
  •  Ll1979
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,931 Posts
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
 
1
  • Post #109
  • Quote
  • Oct 12, 2019 9:33am Oct 12, 2019 9:33am
  •  Ll1979
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,931 Posts
Natural gas COT report
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ng cot report.png
Size: 34 KB
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
 
1
  • Post #110
  • Quote
  • Oct 12, 2019 10:26am Oct 12, 2019 10:26am
  •  LloydOz
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2019 | 784 Posts
Quoting Ll1979
Disliked
Natural gas COT report {image}
Ignored
Thanks for that - I have due respect for COT when it registers extreme short levels amongst the specs (green line), like about 200,000 in NG like it did in August - then, I watch my technical things a bit more closely for a buy. Just increases the bayesian probabilities a bit, that's all. Others interpret it differently, possibly even opposite.

Know that it is positions as at close Tuesday, reported on Friday. Just sayin'.
 
3
  • Post #111
  • Quote
  • Oct 15, 2019 8:03am Oct 15, 2019 8:03am
  •  Ll1979
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,931 Posts
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41673
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
 
1
  • Post #112
  • Quote
  • Oct 15, 2019 12:24pm Oct 15, 2019 12:24pm
  •  nastynatty
  • | Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Member | 172 Posts
Quoting LloydOz
Disliked
{quote} Thanks for that - I have due respect for COT when it registers extreme short levels amongst the specs (green line), like about 200,000 in NG like it did in August - then, I watch my technical things a bit more closely for a buy. Just increases the bayesian probabilities a bit, that's all. Others interpret it differently, possibly even opposite. Know that it is positions as at close Tuesday, reported on Friday. Just sayin'.
Ignored
Right there with ya! It can be useful to me at particular times or with particular data but is not omnipotent. It is nice to know how the market has been feeling.
 
 
  • Post #113
  • Quote
  • Oct 15, 2019 12:42pm Oct 15, 2019 12:42pm
  •  LloydOz
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Oct 2019 | 784 Posts
Hmm, there are two Nat Gas threads trotting along, and I just posted in Nat Gas Anyone?. Being newbie I get confused easy.
 
 
  • Post #114
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jun 10, 2021 8:01pm Jun 10, 2021 8:01pm
  •  Olgatrading
  • | Joined May 2021 | Status: Junior Member | 5 Posts
US Natural Gas prices are choppy, the spread can be wide, and swaps do take a toll, but as this chart shows, rewards are there if you are willing to trust the indicators and hold.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: NGASH4.png
Size: 60 KB
 
 
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