Trying to make it!

This journal is the beginning of my attempt to become a consistently profitable trader. I look forward to posting more regularly and hope that I can be of help to some of you and also hope that opening this thread and posting my trades helps me be more disciplined.

Background
I have a mechanical engineering degree and worked my first three years out of college as a product engineer. Not too long into that job I realized that was not what I wanted to do with my career. After months of debating I left in March 2009 to pursue a full time trading career. I've now been trading from home for over a year, with mostly inconsistent results. Thus far I have not been able to master the discipline aspect needed to be successful. So that is what I am trying to do with this thread. Improve my discipline and eliminate account crippling trades.

Strategy
I am a day trader and rarely leave positions open overnight. I mainly trade the EU and UJ as well as E-mini and Crude oil futures. I will chart the four of those instruments each morning and develop a trading plan. In addition to technical analysis I use macroeconomic data to supplement my trade plans.

Technical Analysis
I start my technical analysis with daily charts. Then I move down to hourly charts. Finally I move to 15 minute charts. I plot support, resistance, and trendlines. I do not typically use any other indicators. Sometimes I fine tune entries and exits on 1 or 5 minute charts.

Fundamental Analysis
I use all news, macroeconomic data, earnings data, etc. to form an opinion of which direction I feel the market is headed. I try not to jump on momentum and trade during important releases, rather, I use the data to help form longer term views.

Here is what my setup looks like on my 2nd monitor.

Each weekend I go through the charts of many currency pairs, stock market indicies, treasury markets, and energy futures and update my charts. I will document any notes I take on this thread as well as any potential setups that catch my eye.

Each morning I quickly scan through the various charts, update them, and take notes documenting potential setups. I will also share my notes on this thread most mornings.

Each trade I make I plan on fully documenting here as well. Winners, losers, breakeven.... each setup I take. I do not recommend anybody blindly follows my trades. First of all, my trades do not always result in a profit. Second of all, I do not believe it is possible to become a successful trader blindly following others.

I'm taking a long position at 85.41 on the UJ. I plan on getting out of this trade before the US markets close tomorrow. Technically the pair is at the bottom trendline of a steep downwards wedge and approaching November low of 84.82 and due for a bounce soon. Fundamentally I expect some momentum going into Japanese rate decision Monday night. My stop is at 84.98.

There are no major events or releases scheduled for the US day session today. I expect it to be a pretty slow and uneventful day as investors will be waiting for the fed announcement tomorrow afternoon.

In my weekly analysis I have found a few potential setups for the week. Natural gas is almost to the bottom trendline of a triangle and has support above 4.40 then at 4.29. I may look to go long at some point if a setup occurs. Gold is hanging on the bottom trendline of an ascending wedge. If it falls below last weeks low of 1155.60 I may look to enter short. Crude oil looks like it may be breaking out on the weekly chart. I am long-term very bullish on oil and hold a good portion of my IRA in a couple of energy stocks. And the final thing I am watching closely is the S&P500 which is forming a possible right shoulder on a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. This is a long-term pattern though and will not affect my trading at this point.

The UJ trade is working out so far and continues to look pretty good. I will be out before the end of the day because although the Japanese will probably leave rates unchanged tonight, the pair will probably be pretty volatile. Stop loss moved up to 85.53 to lock in 12 pips so far.

As the U.S. session ends a rather boring session, I'm closing my UJ trade at 85.85 for a 44 point gain. Trade statistics:

Instrument: USD/JPY
Style: Bottom of descending wedge bounce + momentum into news release.
Profit/Loss: +44 point
Max Drawdown: -11 point

I'm also getting interested in Natural Gas. Took a big hit today, will evaluate tomorrow.

Today will probably be similar to yesterday, slow and boring into the Fed announcement. Futures and risk assets are mostly down at thre moment as worries about the economic recovery continue.

I'm looking at a potential short on the EUR/USD as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and looks weak. UJ is showing continued strength from yesterday, but if the market sells off it will have trouble staying up. Oil and the emini are down, but I don't expect much either way until the afternoon.

I am long on futures contract of Natural Gas at 4.311. Tried to drop below yesterday's low and failed, and I'm expecting a float up. Stop loss below todays low at 4.283.

This is kind of a risky trade here on NG, I'm watching it closely on the 1 minute chart. I'm going to keep moving my stop up quickly. I'm moving it to 4.315 right now.

Wow, that was quick. Stopped out, 4.314.

Instrument: NG
Style: Countertrend. Stop below daily low.
Profit/Loss: +3 points
Max Drawdown: -5 points

Alright, Short EU 1.3097. Stop loss placed at 1.3105.

Half of EU short off at 1.3082. Stop to 1.3101.

Out the rest at 1.3080. Usually I trail the stop, but in this case I'm just taking it off because it isn't as weak as I'd like.

Instrument: EUR/USD
Style: Short on continuation of downtrend.
Profit/Loss: +16 points
Max Drawdown: -2 points

Wow, oil really spiked. I enjoy trading oil, but sometimes I have no clue why it does what it does. Very dangerous if you don't know what you're doing, and I often don't know what I'm doing.

Natural gas keeps on moving up. I guess I should've relied on my stop loss and let it run a bit. My main problem is I second guess trades way too much. To be honest, I probably shouldn't have even taken that trade. There was really no setup, it was a 50/50 shot that it goes up or down.

Markets are down pretty big this morning. Bank of England lowered its recovery forecasts, Asia and Europe are pretty much all down.

UJ hit it's November 2009 low that it has been targeting for some time and has bounced off it.

Natural gas is hanging on the edge of a cliff. Tried to break below 4.27 this morning but failed and has since recovered.

I do not expect a broad based selloff today. Actually I think we may see the markets recover a bit. My first trade today I'm long crude oil at 79.31. Stop at 78.99 for the moment.

Well, I got suckered into a fake breakout and got kicked out of that trade quickly. I still expect oil to rebound soon here around 79 into the open.

Instrument: CL
Style: Breakout of downwards wedge.
Profit/Loss: -33 points
Max Drawdown: -33 points

Oil is just hanging around 79. I'm not going to do anything until the open of the market or a little after though. Still feeling weak. Waiting for signs of a bounce, but probably will not happen till close to 10:00.

Long CL 78.95. Expecting a little rally here.

Out even.... moved my stop to B/E. Oil might take off here, but might spike down. Will buy on spike down.

Long CL 78.91. Looking for rebound into inventory data at 10:30. Will be out before then. If you trade crude oil, you know what happens every Wednesday at 10:30.

Stop below low at 78.7.