Volume Profile, Supply/Demand, entry levels

Let's start with a standard introduction.

ME
I made my first trade about 20years ago (22btw). It was before the 9/11.
OVer the time I was not trading every single day, and I also left many times with some years away for many reasons. In total let's say I spent 40% of this time in trading and 60% in doing something else.
This, of course, isn't really important since I believe that everyday there is something new happening out there. Experience in trading matters maybe only in better understanding if a market is more likely to go in a direction or in the other, based on many informations.

MY PLATFORM
I trade using JForex (Dukascopy) since many years. Reason is simple: I like the functionality it gives me.
There are many platforms and many other good brokers of course.

MY TRADING
My main difficult in trading was and still is about finding a strategy.
I guess I reached a good level but in the same time I suspect there is still some adjustments required.

I like clean charts.

I personally believe the main thing to do in trading is to know what concerns an instrument. I need to know what the world consider as important news to trade that instrument. So if the world considers important a war to blindly buy OIL no matter what the price, I will probably doing the same otherwise I will be selling somenthing that the whole world keeps buying.

LESSONS LEARNT

1. Market is always right
There is no such a simple and straightforward thing out there in life. Remember.
Market will be moving up and down and what really matters is knowing what is moving an instrument and understanding where are the main important areas where buy or sell.

2. A chart is a visual representation of a market
Reading a chart means reading what are price moves over a period of time. That's it. You can decide to read whatever calculation and trasformation you prefer, but this is not gonna change the meaning of a chart.

3. You guess, you die
Really, I lost thousands $ by following a guess, because of an idea, because of bias. Stop guessing what could happen next, we are nobody to know. Yes... you can guess it right sometimes but that's not what makes the money and worst of all if you keep guessing and following your guess, you will only be able to read what confirms your idea. (There is a lot of studies confirming this).

4. What matters to me, doesn't really need to matter also to you.
If you pick any chart and show it to 10 persons and ask them “what would you do?” you will probably receive 10 different views. Sometimes it is good if someone has your same view, but that's just chance and doesn't make your idea better indeed you could be both wrong.


Now that introduction is done let's move forward.

Edit 03/02/2024
Starting from today I am going to reactivate this thread.
I need a place where post my study, my plans, my trades. Anyone is allowed to post in here, as long as the study is based on volumes/price action/S&D or call it whatever you prefer (SMC…).
The idea of this thread is to share analysis about where are main levels to look for a trade, on any instrument and timeframe.

I mostly trade Cable and Oil.
Sometimes Usd Jpy
over the times I could trade other instruments depending on markets develops.

First 4 pages are old. There could be some interesting info but my new treading concept starts from page 4
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-levels?page=4

Let's start with simple things.
This is USD/CAD last 15days chart:


There is clearly a move down from 1.32 to the actual 1.28
I will use this chart to put inside the first main study (Volume Profile).



In this chart I drawn it to read the whole last week data and what comes out is there is important volume in the area between 1.2870 and 1.2900.
Looking at the chart the area some important clues:
1. Price going through the POC area
2. POC acting as supply (resistance)
3. Price again reaching resistance
4. Price not really moving down
5. Price still in resistance

As you can see, I consider support and resistances as areas.

The question is: can I bring those moves and trade them profitably?


There must be an additional factor. I found it a good one with RSI Divergences.
As you can see in previous chart there were this week 4 or 5 possible trades on both sides short and long.
If there is a good divergence with RSI near important volumes areas, a reaction is more likely to happen.

Let me show better what I read.
Still about previous example let's see what happened at point 1 and 2


1. So, price broke last week's POC. End of day, slow volatility.
2. Asia session keeps on selling the instrument moving it down to previous low
3. EU session kind of a double bottom near 1.2820 and clear bullish divergence: it's a buy with SL 1.28 and TP 1.2860-70 (approx 60pips)
4. NY session bouncing price above the broken yesterday's POC which now is more likely to be support (demand). It's a buy SL 1.2850 TP 1.29 (approx 30-40pips)
5. End of day, price unable to move higher, rising wedge against resistance (supply prev week POC) and bearish divergence with RSI: it's a clear short with SL 1.2920 target at least 2850

Days like this happens many times. I just picked what happened in that day in this instrument but I could show tens of examples.

I by the way trade mainly in

OIL WTI
US 500
USD/CAD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD

I simply like these instruments and find them good based on my ability to read them.

USD/JPY
Approaching important area better seen in daily


At the moment price is not showing important reaction. Not even a reaction btw


Will be looking if goes lower to catch some buy opportunities. First good thing would be to see it breaking the hourly channel

USD/CAD
So far volumes shows both last and this week main area is 2860-2880
Interesting increasing volumes near and below the 2800.


Considering USD strength, there could be soon a change in this instrument.

OIL
Last week's POC provides important supply atm (1)
Market, for what I see, is boiling something around this area under 100 with important moves (2) + (3) up but also strong moves down. A great mover indeed.


looking for how develops this area during NY. There could be entry short

USDCAD
buy via the Asia -poc



nice room

Thank you

And yes.... I missed this entry was having lunch

Never mind, the important thing is that you saw it.

Also noticed 2 more things
1. there is already a thread about volume profile... .didn't see it!
2. I don't like a lot sessions' POC. For example today's move in UCad above asia poc 2807

do you trade them and find reliable?

I think your approach and the way you describe it is great.
I will have a look from time to time.
keep it up, everything is right so far.

Thank you
Will check my self also the other thread

EDIT: this was a reply to kette, don't know why the browser set it as new post

US500
I wonder if can go higher


Those 2 lines and gray box come from end of May and June 2022


NY session is moving. Let's see if a trade comes before week and month ends.

First step came. Market broke the hourly channel.
Not yet a good trade setup. Will wait patiently. I have to work on patience.

Bought 1contract oil. Bullishness
scary entry 99.25
stop @be already.
should break higher than 100.25 to reach eventually more higher
target atm previous week high.

reason why I entered such a scary long in OIL

Price behavior.
Look at the chart... Previous attempts at supply were weak.
Today the move is clearly pushing to break it over and keep moving forward up.
This is just how to perceive markets, no matter what indicators say.
Sometimes it works this way.

sl @BE + 4
slippage sometimes in this instrument fills later
even the entry I clicked when price 99.10 but fast move + slippage filled me .15higher

OIL
100.60 till 101 important supply could come and stop it

That GAP seen in the chart above is nothing more than my broker switching from one contract expiry to another