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Natural gas trading

Quoting demontrade
NG just had a sharp fall and a small recovery. Anyone knows why? {image}
I was scanning over some headlines and saw something about the IEA being confident "Saudi Arabia will keep oil market well supplied" around that time?

This NatGas trade would be long play, buying dips. We know prices will eventually rise through the winter, from a historical perspective!

What has me concerned is if global production increases and overcompensates for the charades occurring in the Middle East, that there may be too much supply this winter, digging into our profits?
My Medicine Return Today: na
Quoting C8H18
{quote} I was scanning over some headlines and saw something about the IEA being confident "Saudi Arabia will keep oil market well supplied" around that time? This NatGas trade would be long play, buying dips. We know prices will eventually rise through the winter, from a historical perspective!
Thanks dude! That may be it then.

Quoting C8H18
What has me concerned is if global production increases and overcompensates for the charades occurring in the Middle East, that there may be too much supply this winter, digging into our profits?
I agree here and if that happens, prices would fall even from current depressed levels.
UNITED STATES EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE CHANGE CAME IN AT 102B, ABOVE FORECASTS (89B) IN SEPTEMBER 20
26 September 2019, 17:30
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting demontrade
{quote} Thanks dude! That may be it then. {quote} I agree here and if that happens, prices would fall even from current depressed levels.
Exactly!

Quoting Ll1979
UNITED STATES EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE CHANGE CAME IN AT 102B, ABOVE FORECASTS (89B) IN SEPTEMBER 20 26 September 2019, 17:30
Thank you Ll1979! We can always count on you for the important up to speed, fundamental/breaking news! It really helps to keep track of the events of the day, when trying to play catch-up!

Attached Image


Conclusion: supply overcompensation....? LOL!?
My Medicine Return Today: na
I would also concur with some of you here that are expecting the rise... due to the reasons mentioned...
But I must add that the market seem to be distorted aka "not working".. at least in my book.
If we seek the previous/historic correlations to some FX pairs.. it is just switching completely from (even) plus to minus 50%+... or something...
If this trends continue I must say that I do not see the market atm... But we could be back on the track by the end of next week or I must seriously re-analyse the situation, but will not do so till at least the next week is over... Because we could still consider all this as a "slight" detour, but if it will hold for the (whole) next week, things might be different... Still optimistic atm, so NGAS still UP in my book atm
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: 932.8%
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
I expect NGAS picking up next week, if not.. I might better stay out of this market...
BTW my reference point is eurusd rebounding (to like at least .10599).. if it is not... I might be blind atm (meaning not seeing the market atm)
Will sure as hell be interesting next week... NGAS up would be my bet atm!
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: 932.8%
Brain food

https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...on-outweighing
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting auricforecas
I expect NGAS picking up next week, if not.. I might better stay out of this market... BTW my reference point is eurusd rebounding (to like at least .10599).. if it is not... I might be blind atm (meaning not seeing the market atm) Will sure as hell be interesting next week... NGAS up would be my bet atm!
NGAS not picking up atm... yet... I do not blame it because other market(s) (my controlling/reference market is eurusd) is/are in correction atm, If I'm right anyway...
So until NGAS stall to rebound/climb again... I will be out of the market... Also, because I do not like to pay SWAPS at BUY (LONG) positions... Still optimistic for it though... Just awaiting better entry conditions... I believe we will have a better overview by the end of this week or beginning of the next.

What are your thoughts about it people?
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: 932.8%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} NGAS not picking up atm... yet... I do not blame it because other market(s) (my controlling/reference market is eurusd) is/are in correction atm, If I'm right anyway... So until NGAS stall to rebound/climb again... I will be out of the market... Also, because I do not like to pay SWAPS at BUY (LONG) positions... Still optimistic for it though... Just awaiting better entry conditions... I believe we will have a better overview by the end of this week or beginning of the next. What are your thoughts about it people?
You could try future based CFDs (no swaps) you might pay rollover though. I am in the process of opening an futures account which offers tight spread and no rollovers as well the only downside to energy futures is the fact that you need a big amount of starting capital to maintain max risk percentage.

Waiting for the inventory numbers to evaluate further steps (inventory numbers were hugh last week).
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} You could try future based CFDs (no swaps) you might pay rollover though. I am in the process of opening an futures account which offers tight spread and no rollovers as well the only downside to energy futures is the fact that you need a big amount of starting capital to maintain max risk percentage. Waiting for the inventory numbers to evaluate further steps (inventory numbers were hugh last week).
Interesting... would much prefer the SPOT so I can link TE to it.. but still, tnx for the tip, will think about it. But I do not like CFDs for some (tax) reasons But hey, some (potential) profits might overcome that
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: 932.8%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Interesting... would much prefer the SPOT so I can link TE to it.. but still, tnx for the tip, will think about it. But I do not like CFDs for some (tax) reasons But hey, some (potential) profits might overcome that
I am not familiar with ETFs seen other traders use UGAZ & DGAZ for trading natural gas
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting auricforecas
I expect NGAS picking up next week, if not.. I might better stay out of this market... BTW my reference point is eurusd rebounding (to like at least .10599).. if it is not... I might be blind atm (meaning not seeing the market atm) Will sure as hell be interesting next week... NGAS up would be my bet atm!


Quoting Ll1979
Brain food https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...on-outweighing
Thank you bringing this write-up to the table! That was really in-depth look into the current situation with Natgas! I am ashamed to admit I was geeking out on the stocks, stats and weather! It was a buffet!

This echos pretty much the same theme (which we were speculating days after the Saudi attacks): Natural Gas Futures Continue to Deteriorate as Production ‘Much Too Strong’ and Cash Dips

Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I am not familiar with ETFs seen other traders use UGAZ & DGAZ for trading natural gas
The ETFs look awfully interesting as well as enticing! In the seekingalpha you shared, the author name dropped several which gives me some nice homework :

 

  1. The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which is the unleveraged 1x ETF that tracks the price of natural gas
  2. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL)
  3. ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (KOLD)
  4. UNG's leveraged exposure ETFs, the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)
  5. UNG's high-beta leveraged inverse ETFs, the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN (DGAZ)


Auricforecas do have any experience with ETFs or ETNs?

...In related news, I hate to say it, but we need some whitewalkers... asap!

My Medicine Return Today: na
Nat Gas appears to be headed towards its former resistance and now support level of 2.329

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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (105B) in September 27: Actual (112B)
3 October 2019, 17:30
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting Ll1979
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (105B) in September 27: Actual (112B) 3 October 2019, 17:30
Strong recovery after that today!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/429...-latest-trends
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting nastynatty
{quote} Strong recovery after that today!
With some big volume it recpvered yesterday. Today H4 chart indicates it's still to soon to buy.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} With some big volume it recpvered yesterday. Today H4 chart indicates it's still to soon to buy. {image}
I guess winter is coming!
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I guess winter is coming! {image}
About time I mean... markets came closer to what they "should be" this week... but not quite there yet... It somewhat hinted where they should be...
Extrapolating markets from this week.. I think we might get a clue for this month.. So I expected NGAS to start recovering... I expect it to recover some/much more by the end of next week... when I hope markets will be back on track, at least for the whole OCT.. because after that... there might be some major decisions published that might affect every market... Something going on I suspect... They have been postponing some decision, specially central bank ones (+some international (trading) situations)... for the whole summer and now some fall...
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: 932.8%
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