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DislikedI just opened a short on WTI at current price 54.40$, looking towards 52$Ignored
WTI moved in for a positive close on Thursday following a sharp sell-off that took out the prior day's lows only to attract hungry bulls again which left spot prices close to overnight highs. Investors are trying to second guess that outcome of trade talks that are ongoing between the US and China, with hot to cold headlines creating volatility in the market based on supply and demand fears. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are meeting with China President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, but the sentiment is not so positive following a WSJ and Bloomberg report that there are road bumps along the way.
Trade war talks hit a bump in the road
A major concern in markets is over corporate governance and structural reform, such as intellectual property protection, and, equal market access , which the US requires of any counterpart in a trade deal with China, something which is unlikely to get over the line and of which could seriously jeopardise any agreement being made before Trump's tariff deadline kicks in on March 1st. Previous reports in the week suggested that Trump was in-fact considering a 60-day extension of the deadline if talks continued to progress, lending support to the upside case for the price of oil and risk sentiment in general. However, the US and China "have made little progress so far" during talks in Beijing, according to a WSJ report and a more recent Bloomberg story. Corporate governance is "an extremely sensitive issue that is seen as a non-starter for Chinese leaders," the Bloomberg story argued, adding, "The hurdles raise questions about whether negotiators can meet Trump’s criteria for pushing back the March 1 deadline for more than doubling tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods".
However on the other hand, there are more recent headlines from the South China Morning Post, citing sources, that acknowledges that said road bump, but also reports that, "in the latest round of talks underway in Beijing, both sides also are discussing the possibility of the US' removing the 10 per cent punitive tariffs it has imposed on US$200 billion of Chinese products, while leaving the 25 per cent tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese products unchanged."
Supply cuts add to upside case
However, lending support to the upside comes with Saudi Arabia, pledging earlier this week to cut output further in the coming months, according to the Financial Times that was citing oil minister Khalid al-Falih. The oil minister said the Saudis would cut an additional 500,000 barrels a day to take production to 9.8 million barrels a day in March. Russia also claims to be accelerating required cuts under the latest OPEC+ agreement. Alexander Novak, the Russian energy minister, said that February output levels should see a decline of about 150,000 barrels a day relative to December. Adding to the upside case, involuntary declines from Iran and Venezuela are also likely to underpin a bull market.
WTI levels
Despite the advance, bulls still have not crossed the line and need the price to close and hold above 54.50 for prospects of the 56 handle and placement back into the rising wedge once the recent highs at 55.89 are broken, targeting 60. Otherwise, the technical outlook remains bearish while below the rising wedges support line. However, the rise above the 23.6% Fibo retracement is encouraging. On the flip side, a break of 51.50 and the 27th Jan fractal low will open a run to 50.63 as the last defence for 50 the figure, and 7th Jan swing high at 49.96. On the wide, the bottom of the prior trend is down at 42.54 (top of reverse H&S head).
DislikedHi All, Is anyone trading OIL-WTI? I did a complete search and couldn't find any thread dedicated to WTI trade. Any good strategy or EA for this is most welcome. I am a learner trader only and not an expert to provide any method... VelliIgnored
Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are hovering the $56.00 mark today, a tad lower than earlier 2019 tops near $56.30.
WTI up on USD-selling, trade hopes
The rally in crude oil remains well and sound on Monday, moving further north of the $56.00 mark per barrel, or fresh yearly highs.
In fact, prices of the WTI are extending the upside momentum since monthly lows in the vicinity of the $51.00 mark seen on February 11, always on the back of rising expectations of a positive outcome from the US-China trade talks, which are expected to resume this week in Washington.
Furthermore, the ongoing turmoil around Venezuelan output (or rather absence of it) plus comments from Saudi officials stressing the country could curb its output further is also sustaining the up move in prices.
Additional news around crude oil noted the OPEC cut its forecasts for the demand of its crude oil following prospects of slowing economy, while the EIA now sees US oil production ticking higher to 13.2 mbpd in 2020 (from 12.9 mbpd in the previous report).
What to look for around WTI
Hopes of a US-China trade deal have lent extra oxygen to crude oil prices in past sessions and this should remain a key driver in the very near term ahead of this week’s negotiations. On the broader picture, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production, US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports and the so-called ‘Saudi Put’ should keep a firm floor under crude prices.
WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.70% at $56.13 facing the next hurdle at $56.24 (2019 high Feb.18) ahead of $57.05 (100-day SMA) and then $58.00 (high Nov.16 2018). On the downside, a breakdown of $53.82 (10-day SMA) would aim for $51.15 (low Feb.11) and finally $51.11 (55-day SMA).
Disliked{quote} Roundnrs 100 and 50s are good levels to watch so for example 100.50 101 etc. But the best is to look for important S&R also try not to use tiny stops that was my first error with crude because it has a huge volatility sometimes you nail your entries to the pip. But i found out that my stops where sometimes to smal and i get stopped out and then soon after it it whent my direction. And yes like makingpips sayed it is a great market BUT!! you most observe it for sometime otherwise it will eat you alife. Also keep track of the volatilty on...Ignored
WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) stalled its minor correction from three-month tops of 56.73 in Asia and from there the bulls regained poise, now driving the rates back towards the YTD highs.
The black gold is seen extending the bounce from just ahead of the 56 handle, despite mild risk-off action in the European markets, as the sentiment around oil remains underpinned by the increased hopes of the US-China trade resolution heading into a fresh round of US-China trade talks this week.
Meanwhile, collaborating to the upbeat tone in the barrel of WTI are the expectations of tighter oil markets led by the OPEC output cuts, which are already underway. Further, the US sanctions against petroleum exporters Iran and Venezuela also continue to offer support to the oil bulls.
The immediate focus now remains on the US weekly crude supplies data due on the cards later today at 2130 GMT as markets await the outcome of the US-Sino trade talks for the next direction on the prices.
WTI Technical Levels
Overview:
Today Last Price: 56.37
Today Daily change: -0.01 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.02%
Today Daily Open: 56.38
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 53.95
Daily SMA50: 51.31
Daily SMA100: 55.74
Daily SMA200: 62.82
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 56.75
Previous Daily Low: 56.13
Previous Weekly High: 56.22
Previous Weekly Low: 51.56
Previous Monthly High: 55.48
Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 56.51
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 56.37
Daily Pivot Point S1: 56.09
Daily Pivot Point S2: 55.8
Daily Pivot Point S3: 55.47
Daily Pivot Point R1: 56.71
Daily Pivot Point R2: 57.04
Daily Pivot Point R3: 57.33
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate is trading on the defensive so far today, coming down to the sub-$56.00 area after clinching fresh YTD peaks in the $56.30 area at the beginning of the week.
WTI looks to trade developments, weekly supplies
Prices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil are returning to the negative ground for the first time after five consecutive daily advances, including fresh yearly peaks in the $56.30/35 band (February 18).
Trade concerns appear to have re-emerged today following the likelihood of 25% tariffs on US imports of EU cars, as per latest news, all ahead of the start of another round of US-China trade talks in Washington due later today.
Moving forward, the API and the EIA will report on US crude oil stockpiles on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, while Baker Hughes will release its US oil-rig count on Friday (+3 prev.).
What to look for around WTI
Hopes of a US-China trade deal have lent extra oxygen to crude oil prices in past sessions and this should remain a key driver in the very near term, although the likeliness of a trade dispute between the US and the EU carries the potential to remove some headwinds from the upbeat sentiment. On the broader picture, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production, US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports and the so-called ‘Saudi Put’ should keep a firm floor under crude prices for the time being.
WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is down 1.12% at $55.36 and a breakdown of $53.99 (10-day SMA) would aim for $53.68 (21-day SMA) and finally $51.15 (low Feb.11). On the flip side, the next up barrier emerges at $56.31 (2019 high Feb.18) seconded by $56.86 (100-day SMA) and then $58.00 (high Nov.16 2018).
DislikedForming top or bulls still running? Keltner bands w EMA20 (magenta) & WMA50 (green). {image}Ignored
DislikedUSOUSD forms Inverted Head and shoulder pattern in a daily time frame chart. I would suggest to execute a long position with a SL -51.45 and TP – 59.90. {image}Ignored