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Price Action & Fundamentals with Smart Money 76 replies

Trading Smart Money 2 replies

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  • Post #641
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  • Oct 29, 2018 11:24am Oct 29, 2018 11:24am
  •  v2vboni
  • Joined Sep 2015 | Status: ob-la-di, ob-la-da, life goes on | 2,053 Posts
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Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. -- Stephen Hawking
  • Post #642
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  • Nov 7, 2018 9:12am Nov 7, 2018 9:12am
  •  openyoureyes
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: trend > bias | 2,699 Posts
Quoting Dunstan
Disliked
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% / FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 / Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture.
I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!!
So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish...
Ignored
On point!!!
Thank you for sharing
  • Post #643
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  • Nov 12, 2018 3:38am Nov 12, 2018 3:38am
  •  Dunstan
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 410 Posts
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 28%, SS - 20% /
FTG Score / D -20.5, W 12.0, M 34.7 /
We saw a bullish cot change signal, but the extreme is still bearish. This, combined with a -20.5 daily FTG score suggests to me that we may neglect the change signal and focus our attention on the larger picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 178 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.9, W -0.5, M -14.3 /
The picture remained the same in the past two weeks since my last post… The bullish extreme is in place, prices should head north in the medium/long term.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 85, LS – 86 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -61.3, W -11.3, M -12.4 /
Although bullish extreme grew larger, the HUGE daily FTG score pushes me towards the assumption that price will continue to fall.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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  • Post #644
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  • Dec 23, 2018 3:40am Dec 23, 2018 3:40am
  •  Dunstan
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 410 Posts
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 27%, LS – 30% /
FTG Score / D -16.9, W -30.2, M -43.6 /
Huge bearish cot change signal which brings expectations of lower prices in the short run… still, I’d say that we shouldn’t forget about the all-time bullish extreme which caused the recent rallies --> it is still in place… On the other hand we see greater weaknesses in the future from FuturesTradingGuides: Monthly FTG score at -43.6, weekly scores are also significant… Sum: I may step aside from this market and search for more clearer opportunities.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 154, SS – 73 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -6.6, W 13.4, M -6.8 /
My focus is purely on the cot report here, since FTG scores are more or less in neutral zone for me… Looking at the 5-year chart it becomes clear that we are headed towards the end of this decline. I am not suggesting to exit current short positions / enter long, since throughout my years of experience I have seen multiple examples of extremes widening to greater and great levels for many weeks/months… If I had to bet, I’d say there is a large chance this will happen here, but (!) the warning signs are here.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -33.4, W -5.2, M 39.5 /
Huge bullish extreme suggesting higher prices coming, still… -33.4 daily FTG scores pull me back from entering yet. The monthly scores definitely support the picture painted by the cot report. Sum: we may see a shift in the trend happening the next couple of months.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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  • Post #645
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  • Dec 24, 2018 5:20am Dec 24, 2018 5:20am
  •  dispersion
  • | Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 144 Posts
COT is a lagging data, you suggest to bet on past trends? Doesn't work probably since 1990s
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  • Post #646
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  • Dec 24, 2018 5:56pm Dec 24, 2018 5:56pm
  •  MoshiM
  • | Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Member | 40 Posts
Quoting dispersion
Disliked
COT is a lagging data, you suggest to bet on past trends? Doesn't work probably since 1990s
Ignored
Do you even know what COT data represents?
  • Post #647
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  • Dec 24, 2018 6:19pm Dec 24, 2018 6:19pm
  •  AndrewThor
  • | Joined Jul 2018 | Status: Member | 18 Posts
Quoting MoshiM
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{quote} Do you even know what COT data represents?
Ignored
Obv not
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  • Post #648
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  • Feb 8, 2019 8:10am Feb 8, 2019 8:10am
  •  rkr81
  • Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 296 Posts
Why is COT data not updated after 31st dec? any reason
Part time trader
  • Post #649
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  • Feb 8, 2019 8:51am Feb 8, 2019 8:51am
  •  Dunstan
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 410 Posts
Quoting rkr81
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Why is COT data not updated after 31st dec? any reason
Ignored
Hi rkr81,

I'm sure you know that due to government shutdown, CFTC was not publishing the reports... they've just started to issue them, here you can find a schedule for the new releases: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7864-19

All the best,
Dunstan
  • Post #650
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  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2019 9:11am Feb 8, 2019 9:11am
  •  rkr81
  • Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 296 Posts
Quoting Dunstan
Disliked
{quote} Hi rkr81, I'm sure you know that due to government shutdown, CFTC was not publishing the reports... they've just started to issue them, here you can find a schedule for the new releases: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7864-19 All the best, Dunstan
Ignored
Thank you Mr. Dunstan. I dint know about shutdown.
Part time trader
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