Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. -- Stephen Hawking
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: trend > bias | 2,699 Posts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% / FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 / Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture.
I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!!
So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish...
Thank you for sharing
I know the CFTC has yet to catch up to where they ought to be but in my opinion we are close enough to extract meaningful opinions about future trends in the markets.
For example, Asset managers in the CHFUSD as of the 12th of February reached an all-time net bearish position size (Traders in Financial Futures data dates back to 2006). Since the USDCHF is relatively high,in future reports I suspect there will be a reduction in their accumulated Shorts in accordance with a reduction in price. I didn't see anything meaningful TO ME in the Legacy Report aside from a slight build in Non-Commercial positions since early January (+4k Long,+9k Short CHFUSD).
Any of you have an opposing view or reason for concern?
For example, Asset managers in the CHFUSD as of the 12th of February reached an all-time net bearish position size (Traders in Financial Futures data dates back to 2006). Since the USDCHF is relatively high,in future reports I suspect there will be a reduction in their accumulated Shorts in accordance with a reduction in price. I didn't see anything meaningful TO ME in the Legacy Report aside from a slight build in Non-Commercial positions since early January (+4k Long,+9k Short CHFUSD).
Any of you have an opposing view or reason for concern?
Figured I may as well post some of my notes on the EURUSD with more of a focus on the Traders In Financial Futures report:
Net positions seem to paint a bearish picture : 
So what do you all think? Am I overlooking something? Could we see a break out of this "choppy" market lower?
I do see some cause for concern on the Legacy report side of things. Mainly a build of short positions in the two most recent reports bringing them to a level in my eyes that makes them both more likely for removal and contradictory to my idea. On the other hand I'm seeing a removal of Short Hedges by Commercials and a steady addition of Longs(Had a large net increase on the 12th's report) which would supports my thoughts.
Regardless, I'll be looking for continued supporting signs either Fundamentally or within the data before I add on to my existing short positions.
Net positions seem to paint a bearish picture :
So what do you all think? Am I overlooking something? Could we see a break out of this "choppy" market lower?
I do see some cause for concern on the Legacy report side of things. Mainly a build of short positions in the two most recent reports bringing them to a level in my eyes that makes them both more likely for removal and contradictory to my idea. On the other hand I'm seeing a removal of Short Hedges by Commercials and a steady addition of Longs(Had a large net increase on the 12th's report) which would supports my thoughts.
Regardless, I'll be looking for continued supporting signs either Fundamentally or within the data before I add on to my existing short positions.
Annotated Daily Gold Chart up until the 19th of Feb
I'm curious as to whether or not Gold stalls temporarily where it's at now due to Non-Commercial buying support. Looks as though Gold is now in the same "zone" that was first used to rapidly accumulate Long positions by Non-Commercials during the 22-29th of January. We could see a rally from here but with the rate Commercials were selling at the top, I wouldn't be bullish long-term.
I'm curious as to whether or not Gold stalls temporarily where it's at now due to Non-Commercial buying support. Looks as though Gold is now in the same "zone" that was first used to rapidly accumulate Long positions by Non-Commercials during the 22-29th of January. We could see a rally from here but with the rate Commercials were selling at the top, I wouldn't be bullish long-term.
XAUUSD and why I'm not as bearish as in my previous post.
Over the past few weeks we have seen increase in dovishness among a few Central Banks (BOC ,FED ,ECB, BOJ) which could potentially push more money into gold.
Within the latest release of the data what has really piqued my interest and subsequent lessening of opinion is what the Commercials have done with their positions or rather, their rate of liquidation. From the 12th to 19th Commercials added in 54k Shorts during a period of what would become the most recent high in price but since then, they have removed close to 100k of those Short positions (See the table below).
Please keep in mind that for the image below the coloring of the cells is for the most part arbitrary. Only the shade matters by helping to identify how many Standard deviation above or below average a change is.
Non-Commercial side of things:
Given the context of what is going on regarding Monetary Policy and an overall slowdown in growth (especially in China) this most recent shift in net positioning making Commercials Net 60k long more contracts than the previous release has me more concerned with how much pressure is placed on the long side in the face of their Short liquidation. On the other hand the same can be said of Non-Commercials but with the liquidation of Longs instead. (As a side note: any preferences for who to follow when there are large changes in positioning?)
Coloration rules still apply below. 
Net position Chart:
For now, Net positioning still points towards a shift into a bearish market but given the movement in price after the 5th of March, whether it be as a result of NFP expectations , US-China negotiations or some other factor, it still remains to be seen if this bearish trend in positioning will continue. I guess we'll find out on Friday. 
Anyone have any input?
Over the past few weeks we have seen increase in dovishness among a few Central Banks (BOC ,FED ,ECB, BOJ) which could potentially push more money into gold.
Within the latest release of the data what has really piqued my interest and subsequent lessening of opinion is what the Commercials have done with their positions or rather, their rate of liquidation. From the 12th to 19th Commercials added in 54k Shorts during a period of what would become the most recent high in price but since then, they have removed close to 100k of those Short positions (See the table below).
Please keep in mind that for the image below the coloring of the cells is for the most part arbitrary. Only the shade matters by helping to identify how many Standard deviation above or below average a change is.
Non-Commercial side of things:
Given the context of what is going on regarding Monetary Policy and an overall slowdown in growth (especially in China) this most recent shift in net positioning making Commercials Net 60k long more contracts than the previous release has me more concerned with how much pressure is placed on the long side in the face of their Short liquidation. On the other hand the same can be said of Non-Commercials but with the liquidation of Longs instead. (As a side note: any preferences for who to follow when there are large changes in positioning?)
Coloration rules still apply below.
Net position Chart:
For now, Net positioning still points towards a shift into a bearish market but given the movement in price after the 5th of March, whether it be as a result of NFP expectations , US-China negotiations or some other factor, it still remains to be seen if this bearish trend in positioning will continue. I guess we'll find out on Friday.
Anyone have any input?
XAUUSD and why I'm not as bearish as in my previous post. Over the past few weeks we have seen increase in dovishness among a few Central Banks (BOC ,FED ,ECB, BOJ) which could potentially push more money into gold. Within the latest release of the data what has really piqued my interest and subsequent lessening of opinion is what the Commercials have done with their positions or rather, their rate of liquidation. From the 12th to 19th Commercials added in 54k Shorts during a period of what would become the most recent high in price but since then,...
hellow MoshiM we need to your analysis everydays,learing cot analysis
best regard
thisara1
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In the most recent release of the Traders in Financial Traders version of the COT report there was a large surge in spread contracts by dealers in the AUD bringing them up to 14k (2STD Above average). In the past, surges like this were usually accompanied by a change in trend shortly thereafter. Keeping in mind that this group is already 88% Long, net 61k contracts (43% of Non-Spread Open Interest), and >80 % on a 3Y index of previous positions; it is possible that the AUDUSD may begin a shift into a bullish market.
That said, it is entirely possible that I'm just making excuses to go long and that this is nothing more than an anticipation of contract expiry on the 18th.
Overall Gross positions for Dealers are not anywhere near extremes (ratio of longs to shorts is interesting though). The same cannot be said for Asset Managers. Short Positions for this group have breached into 2STD above average raising the likelihood of liquidation. Meanwhile their longs have been slightly reduced.
Asset Managers currently make up the bulk of net speculative open interest in the AUD were net -35k contracts as of the 12th of March. For comparison, Leveraged Funds are at -11k.
The Legacy report for the AUD doesn't provide the strongest of evidence for my idea but still points towards a more highly valued AUD at some point in the future with their net positions still within the upper 10% of all prior + a significant number of Longs when compared to shorts. I will note however that if the current trend in positioning continues I would certainly be bearish.
It was mentioned in one of Lowe's recent speeches that increases in employment and wage growth would be crucial for Australia's expansion, so if this week's economic releases for the AUD and USD end up creating more positive sentiment surrounding the AUDUSD, I will be using that opportunity to start building up long positions (AUDJPY may be a better choice).
That said, it is entirely possible that I'm just making excuses to go long and that this is nothing more than an anticipation of contract expiry on the 18th.
Overall Gross positions for Dealers are not anywhere near extremes (ratio of longs to shorts is interesting though). The same cannot be said for Asset Managers. Short Positions for this group have breached into 2STD above average raising the likelihood of liquidation. Meanwhile their longs have been slightly reduced.
Asset Managers currently make up the bulk of net speculative open interest in the AUD were net -35k contracts as of the 12th of March. For comparison, Leveraged Funds are at -11k.
The Legacy report for the AUD doesn't provide the strongest of evidence for my idea but still points towards a more highly valued AUD at some point in the future with their net positions still within the upper 10% of all prior + a significant number of Longs when compared to shorts. I will note however that if the current trend in positioning continues I would certainly be bearish.
It was mentioned in one of Lowe's recent speeches that increases in employment and wage growth would be crucial for Australia's expansion, so if this week's economic releases for the AUD and USD end up creating more positive sentiment surrounding the AUDUSD, I will be using that opportunity to start building up long positions (AUDJPY may be a better choice).
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