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-   -   Nat Gas anyone? (https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=942505)

DonPato Nov 6, 2019 10:53am | Post# 161

... I've market the 2.5313 handle as a key support handle for now following the breakout above it on the daily...
I will be watching this level with great interest. I'm almost considering a short at the current level, but think that may be a "sucker's bet". Looking at my above post I am definitely seeing some exhaustion in buying interest here at the "two spot nine" handle

LloydOz Nov 6, 2019 12:12pm | Post# 162

{quote} I will be watching this level with great interest. I'm almost considering a short at the current level, but think that may be a "sucker's bet". Looking at my above post I am definitely seeing some exhaustion in buying interest here at the "two spot nine" handle
Yeah, momentum slowing down.. That doesn't mean much except what you say - its a bit sleepy after such a sprint. Is having a bit of a sit, crossing her legs, lighting a ciggie and checking for messages. May be a prudent opportunity to clinch profits on any remaining..

What happens then is not foretold by my lunar observations or circadian rhythm disorder. I may bite myself if she decides to do that gapping thing again. But there ya go.

vpn Nov 6, 2019 3:00pm | Post# 163

Hello Friends... Just a small heads up for all you who are currently holding long on Nat Gas. I'm starting to read some buying exhaustion at the current levels. Buyers are piling on here but I don't see price responding as before. While price IS still rising it is not rising nearly as fast in response to Delta buying inflows at practically every price level today. While I am not yet convinced price will fall (yet), I am paying some close attention to the order flow. A large round of net selling at this level will signal a drop in price...so far...
Thanks DP. Currently looking to buy but I'll make sure to double check my signals.

nastynatty Nov 6, 2019 4:30pm | Post# 164

{quote} Yeah, momentum slowing down.. That doesn't mean much except what you say - its a bit sleepy after such a sprint. Is having a bit of a sit, crossing her legs, lighting a ciggie and checking for messages. May be a prudent opportunity to clinch profits on any remaining.. What happens then is not foretold by my lunar observations or circadian rhythm disorder. I may bite myself if she decides to do that gapping thing again. But there ya go.

Quite the visual there, bud . I've closed all my positions while she decides where she wants to go next!

DonPato Nov 6, 2019 5:09pm | Post# 165

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Interesting...how things change in just a few hours. When I posted earlier today here Buying was dominant but seemingly exhausting. Take a look at how it looks now at the end of the same day:
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Clearly longs have take profits on their positions and the resulting selling has pushed price lower. I imagine price will drop tomorrow and into the rest of the week. What a difference in just a few hours.

nastynatty Nov 7, 2019 4:12pm | Post# 166

Interesting...how things change in just a few hours. When I posted earlier today here Buying was dominant but seemingly exhausting. Take a look at how it looks now at the end of the same day: {image} Clearly longs have take profits on their positions and the resulting selling has pushed price lower. I imagine price will drop tomorrow and into the rest of the week. What a difference in just a few hours.
Looks like you are right! I think this downturn has some legs to run this week. Will see how it starts tomorrow and move accordingly.

DonPato Nov 7, 2019 5:54pm | Post# 167

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Looks like you are right! I think this downturn has some legs to run this week. Will see how it starts tomorrow and move accordingly.
Looks like the shorts that were in the market all summer have all stopped out and there seems unwillingness to buy above the 2.90 level. but as seems clear there is some willingness to buy as soon as price gets close to the gap. Yesterday I called shorts a "sucker's bet" and that still may be the case but last night as I was looking at this I decided to risk a small portion of the 985 pips I got on the way up to see if I could make a few on the way down. So I am into a small short position using a tight stop and we'll see if Friday or next Monday won't fill the gap. I guess we should cross our fingers.
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heispark Nov 7, 2019 9:02pm | Post# 168

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Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD.
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See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383

LloydOz Nov 7, 2019 11:55pm | Post# 169

I'm now following the Jan 2020 NG contract. Two factoids that are in all probability a coincidence.

The high of 17 Sep was exceeded by two tenths of a cent.

The high of 31 Oct was 2.826. Low of 7 Nov was 2.829. Gap filled? Not strictly, but phew.

I am relatively new to NG, but I think that despite everything (all the stuff about news), it is an interesting market to chart - textbook stuff.

Edit. But the gap was filled from the day before. The air space from the day after is actually far from being filled. Nobody talks about such nuances. This is why I prefer maths rather than charts.

LloydOz Nov 8, 2019 12:08am | Post# 170

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD. {image} See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383
Technically you are correct, of course. Patience is a virtue. Your broker may not like you very much.

Gotta remember that "large" speculators were nevertheless short around 200,000 contracts recently when it was near its lows. Now, that's folk with very deep pockets (read - other peoples money).

EventsTrader Nov 8, 2019 1:11am | Post# 171

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1.
I'd be surprised if it did happen, but I wouldn't say it can't. Highly unlikely.

Super attractive RR. Am I wrong?
This is a very good point. Risk/Reward is very high closer around $2. Solid advice right there.

deuce Nov 8, 2019 6:31am | Post# 172

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD. {image} See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383

You are correct. Most won't trade this way because it is boring to them.

The great thing about trading commodities is that they will not go to zero. Build a position buying low. Be patient and don't chase price. You don't have to use margin in futures just keep the notional of your position below account cash.

Robert1991 Nov 8, 2019 7:30am | Post# 173

Hello everyone! I'm also new to this thread and also new on NG but...I've done a little research before entering... I've bought NG on 26.08.2019 because of Dorian hurricane. Got out from trade on 09.09.2019. Then I entered again when climate has changed, a little cooler then expected on 09.10.2019 and got out at first target on 30.10.2019. So far so good, for me, NG it's a very promising trading opportunity, even if it's moving slow . Trade safe!

demontrade Nov 8, 2019 7:41am | Post# 174

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD. {image} See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383
You're correct but you will see when NG is near $2, then the sentiment would be such that it would be almost impossible for most to end up buying, as Fundamentals would be terrible. The one who holds his nerve and has adequate margin, is bound to make money.

LloydOz Nov 8, 2019 7:54am | Post# 175

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD. {image} See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383
Hey, I just checked something. There are NG contracts years out, like at least a decade. There is an open interest of 25 in each of Mar and Apr 2027, so there ya go. They are about 3 bucks or less, although that would depend on who ya talking to. I dare anyone to try it!

heispark Nov 8, 2019 7:57am | Post# 176

{quote} You're correct but you will see when NG is near $2, then the sentiment would be such that it would be almost impossible for most to end up buying, as Fundamentals would be terrible. The one who holds his nerve and has adequate margin, is bound to make money.
The key is low leverage and patience. Because there is production cost of gas, it cannot go down such low price. One thing to note is roll over cost in futures. Even considering this cost, I think it can be very profitable.

heispark Nov 8, 2019 9:00am | Post# 177

Short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publica...v=38dd815e66db

auricforecas Nov 8, 2019 12:19pm | Post# 178

{quote} Planned track was rising... As stated for example here: 1, 2, 3 (or if you search m posts by keyword "NGAS"). And thx for the update I am not currently trading NGAS themselves, but I do track it... it got my attention... From the energy I am currently in the WTI...
Well nice man... finally it paid off... even though I was not actively trading it, but was checking actual vs analysis.. And glad it took off (or at least recovered for that hole.. We were waiting for quite some time for this... For the future I do not make any prediction, specially this (consolidation) period... in other markets at least.. But am impressed that it was not all for naught... "play/work-ing" with its prediction Thx to DonPato for the additional moral confidence/support

heispark Nov 8, 2019 8:44pm | Post# 179

Whenever NG drops to near $2, just buy it. It cannot go below $1. In Futures, when you buy one contract, $2->$1 is $10000 move. If your margin can afford this, you're almost guaranteed to make huge money. Super attractive RR. Am I wrong? For position trading, ETF or Futures have lower trading cost than CFD. {image} See also: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12373383
Why Leveraged ETFs Are Not a Long-Term Bet
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...al-gas.337650/

Ll1979 Nov 9, 2019 2:59am | Post# 180

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