Energy EXCH (https://www.energyexch.com/forum.php)
-   Interactive Trading (https://www.energyexch.com/forumdisplay.php?f=137)
-   -   Nat Gas anyone? (https://www.energyexch.com/showthread.php?t=942505)

DonPato Aug 21, 2019 11:02am | Post# 1

Nat Gas anyone?
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hello all, starting this new thread on trading natural gas. I don't know if any of you out there are interested in this commodity but I have found it on my current broker (CFD broker) so I image it is spot prices. While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts. I have very similar tools that I use to trade this intrument so I thought I'd open this thread to see if there is any interest here...anyone?
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 140 KB

DonPato Aug 21, 2019 11:08am | Post# 2

Just a quick comment to explain the above charts. On the left a weekly chart with tick volume displayed and a (extrapolated) delta volume indicator. On the upper right a daily price chart in the same set up as the weekly chart, and on the lower right a delta volume chart showing daily volume (buying and/or selling) at each price level.

My analysis as this point is that this commodity (after grinding lower most all year) has finally burned out the selling and while there is mild interest in buying most of this buying is profit taking. I haven't yet seen any real buying interest to send prices significantly higher. That being said, I have a long position on that is slightly positive and a second long (lower of the two seen here) waiting to be filled when (if) sellers test their luck at the lows again.

Ef5 Aug 21, 2019 11:23am | Post# 3

I'm pretty new to energy, but so far I've found nat gas to be by far the most interesting since it's kind of a play on weather. I'm working on putting together a strategy now.

While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts.
Have you looked at trading the QG contract? It's 1/4th the size of NG so that might be a better option. I plan on trading it at first while I'm learning the instrument better.

DonPato Aug 21, 2019 11:28am | Post# 4

... Have you looked at trading the QG contract? It's 1/4th the size of NG so that might be a better option. ...
I haven't yet...I will look into it although I may have to ask for an upgrade in my cbo feed. Right now I'm using simple globex. I'll check it out though thanks.

helgastrxd Aug 21, 2019 11:45am | Post# 5

Hello all, starting this new thread on trading natural gas. I don't know if any of you out there are interested in this commodity but I have found it on my current broker (CFD broker) so I image it is spot prices. While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts. I have very similar tools that I use to trade this intrument so I thought I'd open this thread to see if there is any interest here...anyone? {image}
Nat gas is a very unique commodity, I'm interested.

Inventory data is released tomorrow, would be fun to see what you think about the price movement before, during and after that news.

C8H18 Aug 22, 2019 3:14pm | Post# 6

1 Attachment(s)
Hi Don!

This looked like a scary trade today.
Click to Enlarge

Name: natural gass.jpg
Size: 77 KB

Any luck? How did things turn out?

Ef5 Aug 22, 2019 4:23pm | Post# 7

Hi Don! This looked like a scary trade today. {image} Any luck? How did things turn out?
Weird reaction today. It almost looked like one big market order fired off and then NG went right back down. Glad I didn't participate in this one!

Ef5 Aug 22, 2019 6:28pm | Post# 8

1 Attachment(s)
I did some research on the weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage Change today. I found out the EIA actually publishes the 5y historical average storage levels. I decided to plot 2019 weekly storage changes against the 5y averages and saw they're remarkably close! I think this might be my baseline for the model I'm working on.

Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 45 KB

helgastrxd Aug 22, 2019 10:51pm | Post# 9

I did some research on the weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage Change today. I found out the EIA actually publishes the 5y historical average storage levels. I decided to plot 2019 weekly storage changes against the 5y averages and saw they're remarkably close! I think this might be my baseline for the model I'm working on. {image}
I like it. Let the forward tests and tinkering begin.

MzansiObi Aug 26, 2019 3:24am | Post# 10

So his is where everyone has been having fun?!?


Nice thread Don, looking forward to reading and sharing some ideas and thoughts on here.....

DonPato Aug 26, 2019 10:23am | Post# 11

So his is where everyone has been having fun?!? Nice thread Don, looking forward to reading and sharing some ideas and thoughts on here.....
If you like range trading this is where its at...Ranging for the last 18 days. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe this range will break anytime soon...have at it!!

DonPato Aug 26, 2019 10:27am | Post# 12

1 Attachment(s)
My long is still hanging in there...however languishing it looks.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 51 KB
I'm seeing what I term to be a "stable" range. buying at the bottom...selling at the top...spikey around the edges. Just not a whole lot to say...

Most of the market is this way right now. Summer doldrums with no real serious money at work. This is (I think) why the market is reacting so strongly to every little tweet and twitter, that comes out of the mouth of politicians and G7 reports. So little volume at play in the markets, it doesn't take much to cause something to happen.

MzansiObi Aug 26, 2019 11:42am | Post# 13

{quote} If you like range trading this is where its at...Ranging for the last 18 days. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe this range will break anytime soon...have at it!!
lol agreed, we will take advantage of this range while it holds......had pending buy order that was just missed. Will look to sell the range ceiling. Will catch the next one

DonPato Aug 27, 2019 9:49am | Post# 14

1 Attachment(s)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 52 KB
This market reminds of an old Sonny and Cher song..."The Range goes on..."

Inserted Video


**Wait!! Did I just show my age??

EventsTrader Aug 28, 2019 11:48pm | Post# 15

The EIA will release its latest storage figures and the market will likely get rocked. Check this week's preview: Natural Gas Storage - Aug 29th Preview

Be ready! Good luck fellow traders!

DonPato Aug 29, 2019 3:58pm | Post# 16

1 Attachment(s)
Odd...Nat Gas storage was quite a bit less than expected. And while we did get a nice rise in price, All I'm seeing on the order flow is selling at the end of the day. Even the buying was a bit "unenthusiastic". I have moved my stop up to BE.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 55 KB

DonPato Sep 4, 2019 12:15pm | Post# 17

1 Attachment(s)
My Nat Gas position has advanced nicely and price is nearing the last major top. Buying continues into the top but it is starting to look like the buying is exhausting. I won't know yet for a day or two, but if I see any selling take over I will take my profit on this trade.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 122 KB

EventsTrader Sep 5, 2019 12:25am | Post# 18

My Nat Gas position has advanced nicely and price is nearing the last major top. Buying continues into the top but it is starting to look like the buying is exhausting. I won't know yet for a day or two, but if I see any selling take over I will take my profit on this trade. {image}
Very impressive entry. Nice job DonPato!

I just posted a preview ahead of tomorrow's Natural Gas storage data. I'm sitting it out. Due to the EIA petroleum data shortly afterwards, any move will have limited potential for any follow through.

Full preview here: Natural Gas Storage - Sept 5th Preview

DonPato Sep 5, 2019 9:54am | Post# 19

1 Attachment(s)
{ Very impressive entry. Nice job DonPato! I just posted a preview ahead of tomorrow's Natural Gas storage data. I'm sitting it out. Due to the EIA petroleum data shortly afterwards, any move will have limited potential for any follow through. Full preview here: Natural Gas Storage - Sept 5th Preview
Thank you Events Trader for your words of encouragement....it has been a difficult summer. We are about an hour away from the Nat Gas numbers release, and I am seeing (as I would anticipate) some selling ahead of that announcement which has stalled the advance. (Circles in yellow) I don't anticipate taking any action on this trade until after today is in the books...but lately I have regretted these types of decisions, as price seems to change from every twit and twitter, that comes across the white house "squawk box". So I guess we'll see what happens. I have my stop at just barely break even...and I cannot see any logical swing point to place it under to preserve some profit...so I will just grit my teeth and wait...

At least this trade won't lose.
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 51 KB

DonPato Sep 5, 2019 10:37am | Post# 20

1 Attachment(s)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 55 KB
The Nat Gas numbers were just released and showed a greater than expected supply. Consequently selling has increased, and price is responding. I have moved my stop up to lock in at least 150 pips. It is the closest I can make it without choking off the trade. Price has now fallen to the level where the majority of buying occurred yesterday. If we drop down below this level today or tomorrow I will most likely exit and keep what has been made.


© Energy EXCH