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EF5 Aug 21, 2019 1:25pm | Post# 21

{quote} This leads me to my kicker. Try not to let the academics hold you back from testing something. It is certainly an intimidating set of players in the market but there is no better way to learn how shave off your own gains than by experimenting in a smart way. I can tell that you have studied natural gas and have a good background to draw from so if you are not already testing a trading strategy why not start?
I was specifically talking about weather models using machine learning. If so, they'll evolve over time and whatever edge that might exist will change. If the relationship isn't static it just adds a degree of difficulty, not saying I won't try it!

Any interest in trying to trade the storage data that is released tomorrow?
Nah, I need to put together a forecasting model first. It won't be ready in time for tomorrow, but maybe next week.

Ll1979 Aug 21, 2019 3:07pm | Post# 22

{quote} I was specifically talking about weather models using machine learning. If so, they'll evolve over time and whatever edge that might exist will change. If the relationship isn't static it just adds a degree of difficulty, not saying I won't try it! {quote} Nah, I need to put together a forecasting model first. It won't be ready in time for tomorrow, but maybe next week.
Interesthing stuff guys keep us in the loop.

Meanwhile some beainfood:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...oduction-focus

tradestar1 Aug 21, 2019 10:56pm | Post# 23

Keep your heads on square boys and girls,
Natural gas inventories tomorrow at 7:30 AM PDT...........

EventsTrader Aug 21, 2019 11:51pm | Post# 24

Great thread here. Subscribed!

Keep your heads on square boys and girls, Natural gas inventories tomorrow at 7:30 AM PDT...........
Yessir! I'm looking for shorting opportunities. Prices haven't been this low since 2016. Until I start hearing that winter will be early or colder than usual, I think downward price pressures persist.

Check out the preview for the storage data: Natural Gas Storage - Aug 22nd Preview. Other views and insights are always welcomed and appreciated.

michaelpelly Aug 22, 2019 8:11am | Post# 25

Keep in mind that NGAS is falling couple months consecutively. I expect wild moves next couple weeks - probably downward pressure - but short lived. No trend goes forever.

demontrade Aug 22, 2019 8:23am | Post# 26

Excellent thread here. While I don't trade Nat Gas hugely after having burnt my fingers way back when Nat gas was crushed by the Amaranth saga.

michaelpelly Aug 22, 2019 8:34am | Post# 27

For the last 2.5 years Im trading only commodities (primarily US oil, NGAS and Copper) while applying simple rule - buy as low as it goes and ride out the upward move. It happens 1-2 times per year but it pays out very well.

What usually is unknown is the reversal point - this is were most of the wise-ass comments comes. The simple fact is - you do not know. No one knows. And until it is a fact - half of the long trend is gone. Just select a price and try each dip with small risk.

Ll1979 Aug 22, 2019 10:37am | Post# 28

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (60B) in August 16: Actual (59B)

Ll1979 Aug 23, 2019 2:04am | Post# 29

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helgastrxd Aug 23, 2019 6:03pm | Post# 30

For the last 2.5 years Im trading only commodities (primarily US oil, NGAS and Copper) while applying simple rule - buy as low as it goes and ride out the upward move. It happens 1-2 times per year but it pays out very well. What usually is unknown is the reversal point - this is were most of the wise-ass comments comes. The simple fact is - you do not know. No one knows. And until it is a fact - half of the long trend is gone. Just select a price and try each dip with small risk.
You are a nat gas AND a copper guy? Sounds like a man with some specialized skills.

I'm curious, which have you been more profitable with in the past few years?

michaelpelly Aug 24, 2019 9:33am | Post# 31

{quote} You are a nat gas AND a copper guy? Sounds like a man with some specialized skills. I'm curious, which have you been more profitable with in the past few years?
US oil :-)

Im not specialist in gas and copper - just trying to buy commodities that were suppressed for couple (3-6) months. I even do no keep capital in the markets all the time - only when monthly reversal opportunities start to show.

Currently - I think that NGAS futures show good potential next couple weeks.

EF5 Aug 24, 2019 2:50pm | Post# 32

{quote} US oil :-) Im not specialist in gas and copper - just trying to buy commodities that were suppressed for couple (3-6) months. I even do no keep capital in the markets all the time - only when monthly reversal opportunities start to show. Currently - I think that NGAS futures show good potential next couple weeks.
Interesting, so am I right to think your trading is based on mean reversion?

michaelpelly Aug 25, 2019 7:49am | Post# 33

{quote} Interesting, so am I right to think your trading is based on mean reversion?
Yes, I do only reversal speculations - usually on weekly/monthly chart pattern (but mostly just by the price levels) - try to keep it as simple as it can go.

helgastrxd Aug 25, 2019 8:27am | Post# 34

{quote} Yes, I do only reversal speculations - usually on weekly/monthly chart pattern (but mostly just by the price levels) - try to keep it as simple as it can go.
Ah ok, now I understand. I have quite a bit of respect for that type of approach. You can make enough money for years in a matter of months but not also not see a trading opportunity for as long. It takes a lot more discipline than most people realize too.

Ll1979 Aug 29, 2019 11:35am | Post# 35

UNITED STATES EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE CHANGE MEETS FORECASTS (60B) IN AUGUST 23
29 August 2019, 17:30

Ll1979 Aug 30, 2019 1:58am | Post# 36

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C8H18 Aug 30, 2019 3:24pm | Post# 37

Nice find chief! I bookmarked this news source

helgastrxd Sep 2, 2019 9:33pm | Post# 38

I have a pretty strong feeling that long NatGas is going to be the trade for the remainder of this year. It only becomes a matter of timing the trades.

Ll1979 Sep 7, 2019 3:56am | Post# 39

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helgastrxd Sep 9, 2019 2:35pm | Post# 40

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NG is up 18% over the past 30 days and about 10% of the 18% is since the start of September. NG is still the place to be until this momentum runs its course.
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