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michaelpelly Feb 3, 2019 8:18am | Post# 1

Natural gas trading
 
Watch for good long entries on Natural Gas - especially if price breaks below 2.5

BreakDaStops Feb 3, 2019 9:23am | Post# 2

Watch for good long entries on Natural Gas - especially if price breaks below 2.5
What if price will stay at 2.5 for a .. let say half a year?

kuroro001 Feb 3, 2019 9:37am | Post# 3

Lets be more patient

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post11958125

michaelpelly Feb 3, 2019 10:02am | Post# 4

{quote} What if price will stay at 2.5 for a .. let say half a year?
Did you ever seen a commodity price to stay exactly at 2.5 for 6 months?! Iím not seeing such scenario for 8 years of trading. Worst case - it will oscillate between 1.5 and 2.5 for couple months - that is 40% price fluctuation. Even with 1:1 leverage is a lot of price movement thus a profit opportunity.

Why people does post such nonsense here?

Does anyone actually trade here?!

kuroro001 Feb 3, 2019 10:12am | Post# 5

{quote} Did you ever seen a commodity price to stay exactly at 2.5 for 6 months?! Iím not seeing such scenario for 8 years of trading. Worst case - it will oscillate between 1.5 and 2.5 for couple months - that is 40% price fluctuation. Even with 1:1 leverage is a lot of price movement thus a profit opportunity. Why people does post such nonsense here? Does anyone actually trade here?!
He probably wanted to say price was oscillating near 2.5 for half a year, and its true

Between 2,6 and 3....but still a lot of money to be made if you are not a swing trader

BreakDaStops Feb 3, 2019 10:36am | Post# 6

{quote} Did you ever seen a commodity price to stay exactly at 2.5 for 6 months?! Iím not seeing such scenario for 8 years of trading. Worst case - it will oscillate between 1.5 and 2.5 for couple months - that is 40% price fluctuation. Even with 1:1 leverage is a lot of price movement thus a profit opportunity. Why people does post such nonsense here? Does anyone actually trade here?!
Why would you buy at 2.5 when it may fall couple of months to 1.5?

What I'm saying is what your catalyst to buy natural gas?

michaelpelly Feb 3, 2019 10:40am | Post# 7

{quote} Why would you buy at 2.5 when it may fall couple of months to 1.5? What I'm saying is what your catalyst to buy natural gas?
It may drop, it may spike to 3.5 for a week.

My catalyst is quite simple - it is called price speculation (the basics for all trading).

A commodity has intrinsic value - it is mined, transported, etc... and when price is close to multi year lows, unless someone invents practical cold fusion next 6 months on a large scale - I bet everything the gas price will be above 1.2-1.5 for the next 3-5 years.

hilmy83 Feb 3, 2019 11:03am | Post# 8

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i'd put a buy at 2. seems like where there is most demand there. it's a nice round number rejected in the past. but i think the most it'll get to is fluctuate to $4. that's $20,000 profit lets say 4-6 months if not longer for 1 contract.

i'd stick to NQ lol...

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m3rlin Feb 3, 2019 12:14pm | Post# 9

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{quote} .Did you ever seen a commodity price to stay exactly at 2.5 for 6 months. A commodity has intrinsic value - it is mined, transported, etc...
yes true, but what if that intrisec value is not the true value? what if the rest of the crowd or smart money don't want to buy/sell at that value?

your catalist is price speculation but it's seems that in fact you don't know to much about speculation.

did you even hear about Rhodium?
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michaelpelly Feb 3, 2019 12:54pm | Post# 10

Discussion is about natural gas. A very needed commodity with a lot of geopolitical factors that would require to keep the prices up.

I guess if we go deep enough in stupid examples we can put as trading example - mmmmm, letís say - the smell of my underwear before morning shower - like what is the average disgustness per year :-).

hilmy83 Feb 3, 2019 1:30pm | Post# 11

Discussion is about natural gas. A very needed commodity with a lot of geopolitical factors that would require to keep the prices up. I guess if we go deep enough in stupid examples we can put as trading example - mmmmm, letís say - the smell of my underwear before morning shower - like what is the average disgustness per year :-).
that made me lol

m3rlin Feb 3, 2019 3:20pm | Post# 12

Discussion is about natural gas...
did you know that over the last 20 years, 90% of the time nat gas prices have been above2.70 and is a seasonal commodity?
first part of question is statistical fact, second one is character of the instrument.

p.s. i was long NG from september to december, what about you? no price for you below 2.5

BreakDaStops Feb 4, 2019 2:01am | Post# 13

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that made me lol
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helgastrxd Aug 15, 2019 12:21am | Post# 14

{quote} did you know that over the last 20 years, 90% of the time nat gas prices have been above2.70 and is a seasonal commodity? first part of question is statistical fact, second one is character of the instrument. p.s. i was long NG from september to december, what about you? no price for you below 2.5
Nat gas traders are all part weathermen.

Goat Aug 16, 2019 2:14am | Post# 15

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Wow up 2% on the day. I need to start trading these EPA numbers.
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EF5 Aug 19, 2019 3:03pm | Post# 16

{quote} Nat gas traders are all part weathermen.
Do you know which weather model traders tend to follow? GFS and Euro?

I've always had a thing for meteorology so trading nat gas is right up my alley.

helgastrxd Aug 20, 2019 12:01am | Post# 17

{quote} Do you know which weather model traders tend to follow? GFS and Euro? I've always had a thing for meteorology so trading nat gas is right up my alley.
I'll just say that the Euro models are more accurate and usually worth the wait. I'll also admit I only really dig into the gritty details of the winter weather forecasts in the northeast US. The impact of a change to expectations for a mild winter to a severe one or vice versa can really make things interesting.

I always caution people about relying solely on the most popular methods when trading anything though. It is often not advisable to do the same thing everyone else does because you often end up a follower in the markets. Bigger money can be made by making a move or trade that is different than others and puts you ahead of the curve. The easiest way to make a confident move against the crowd is to notice relationships that other people don't.

EF5 Aug 20, 2019 12:39pm | Post# 18

{quote} I'll just say that the Euro models are more accurate and usually worth the wait. I'll also admit I only really dig into the gritty details of the winter weather forecasts in the northeast US. The impact of a change to expectations for a mild winter to a severe one or vice versa can really make things interesting.
Thank you, thatís great info!

I always caution people about relying solely on the most popular methods when trading anything though. It is often not advisable to do the same thing everyone else does because you often end up a follower in the markets. Bigger money can be made by making a move or trade that is different than others and puts you ahead of the curve. The easiest way to make a confident move against the crowd is to notice relationships that other people don't.
I totally agree actually.

The reason I ask which models traders watch is to know what theyíre making trading decisions based on. There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.

EF5 Aug 20, 2019 12:57pm | Post# 19

The reason I ask which models traders watch is to know what theyíre making trading decisions based on. There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.
Come to think of it, this might be a tricky proposition. I bet some of these models are using machine learning so any edge thatís found wonít be very reliable.

I still find the concept very interesting so Iím going to look into it regardless.

helgastrxd Aug 21, 2019 11:33am | Post# 20

{quote} There could be an edge in scrutinizing where models differ, like if the Euro says one thing and CMC says another and I know the CMC is slightly more reliable under the circumstances.
I agree. I think it is as simple as you have to know the characteristics of the tools in your box and the more nuances that you know the better off you are.

Personally I will never know as much as I would like to by pure study alone. To take my analogy a bit farther, no matter how long I study the differences between a Phillip and flat head screwdriver I will never feel knowledgeable until I have tested them both on various screws etc with my bare hands. This is why I like to do a lot of testing in the markets with small sums of money before taking on real trades of a similar nature.

{quote} Come to think of it, this might be a tricky proposition. I bet some of these models are using machine learning so any edge that’s found won’t be very reliable. I still find the concept very interesting so I’m going to look into it regardless.
This leads me to my kicker.

Try not to let the academics hold you back from testing something. It is certainly an intimidating set of players in the market but there is no better way to learn how shave off your own gains than by experimenting in a smart way. I can tell that you have studied natural gas and have a good background to draw from so if you are not already testing a trading strategy why not start?

Any interest in trying to trade the storage data that is released tomorrow?


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