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Ll1979 Jul 11, 2019 2:41am | Post# 2521

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Oil prices to rise in H2 2019 on supply disruption risks - ANZ
11 July 2019, 09:29

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) analysts expect oil prices to edge higher in the second half of this year on a potential supply disruption.
Key Quotes:
“OPEC+ is sticking with its production cuts deal.
Production is falling in Iran and Venezuela and risk of supply disruptions is rising in the Middle East.
Together these should see the oil market balance tightening in H2 2019.
US shale companies have been pulling back on drilling, could limit growth in output from shale in near term.
Slowing global economic growth will still see demand growing more than 1mb/d.
We believe the market's focus will soon shift from a focus on softer demand to looking at supply disruption risks. This should see prices back above USD70/bbl in H2 2019.”
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timingchain Jul 11, 2019 5:03pm | Post# 2522

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A downturn after a big advance, but how deep will it go?
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Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 2:10am | Post# 2523

WTI: BULLS HOLD REINS NEAR 7-WEEK TOP AMID COMMODITY RALLY
12 July 2019, 07:56

 

  1. Greenback decline pleases commodity buyers including WTI.
  2. Supply crunch, geopolitical tension offer additional strength to the upside momentum.
  3. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts and China trade data awaited for fresh direction.

Despite having fewer fresh catalysts to follow, WTI remains on the bids near 7-week tops as it trades at $60.50 ahead of the Europe market’s open on Friday.
Overall commodity basket run-up on the back of the US Dollar (USD) weakness can be spotted as a reason for the energy benchmark’s latest strength. Adding to the momentum could be the likely UK-Iran tension after the British oil tanker was stopped by Iranian guards in the Persian Gulf. On the background, supply cut extension by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and some other non-OPEC oil producers, jointly called as OPEC+, continue to flash output crunch worries.

The USD has recently been under pressure after the US Federal Reserve officials openly favor Fed rate cuts while citing downside risks to the inflation expectations.
Commodities have an inverse relationship with the USD and hence a decline in the greenback can well be witnessed by an uptick in commodity basket.

Against the move is the US-China trade stalemate that raises the doubts over the future energy demand.
Moving on, monthly trade balance data from China and weekly release of the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts will be on the black gold traders’ radar. While China data is expected to portray an improvement in trade balance and may escalate the present oil run-up, further fall in the US oil rig counts from 788 prior can offer an additional reason to the bulls.

Technical Analysis
FXStreet Analyst Ross J Burland spots convergence of daily moving average to cite $57.80 as the key support:
Bulls continue to commit and the price drifts higher on the 60 handle. On the downside, the familiar 20, 50 and 200 Experiential Moving Averages fall in line as potential support around 57.80. Then, below the weekly lows at 56.77, the 52 handle and then the 14th Jan 50.41 lows ahead of the 26th November lows at 49.44 are a target.


Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 4:07am | Post# 2524

IEA: OPEC supply cuts do not change the fundamental outlook of an oversupplied market
12 July 2019, 11:27

The International Energy Agency (IEA) - in its monthly oil market report released this Friday, maintained its 2019 Oil demand growth estimate at 1.2 million bpd (mbpd) and at 1.4 mbpd for 2020.
Key points:
• Consumption proved far weaker than expected, the outlook for 2020 is also deteriorating.
• OPEC supply cuts do not change the fundamental outlook of an oversupplied market.
• OPEC may need to reduce output to the lowest in 17 years to balance the market.
• Global oil stockpiles swelled surprisingly during the first half of 2019.

Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 4:42am | Post# 2525

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Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 6:06am | Post# 2526

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Taking a long on EU
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Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 6:32am | Post# 2527

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Taking a long on EU {image}
killed with a small loss
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Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 7:36am | Post# 2528

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WTI @ crucial levels
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Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 9:00am | Post# 2529

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shorted WTI @ 60.234
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detector Jul 12, 2019 10:52am | Post# 2530

{quote} killed with a small loss {image}
Courage to be honest Li, you'll get the next one, hope your well, have I missed much, sitting on a loss with EU, currently long, looks like I'll be switching brokers, was stuck in the Dow last night we spoke, I couldn't close it neither could they, eventually got out of the position, had a similar with a WTI trade, price froze and never knew a thing, scary!!, D

detector Jul 12, 2019 10:57am | Post# 2531

Closed EU and sold the DOW 27208

detector Jul 12, 2019 11:01am | Post# 2532

Staying out WTI for the mo, the chart says one thing, the price is taking advantage of the unrest,D

Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 11:04am | Post# 2533

{quote} Courage to be honest Li, you'll get the next one, hope your well, have I missed much, sitting on a loss with EU, currently long, looks like I'll be switching brokers, was stuck in the Dow last night we spoke, I couldn't close it neither could they, eventually got out of the position, had a similar with a WTI trade, price froze and never knew a thing, scary!!, D
Hi D! Stuck in trades then it's time to leave the broker

Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 11:05am | Post# 2534

Staying out WTI for the mo, the chart says one thing, the price is taking advantage of the unrest,D
Waiting for the break else i will kill it and take my loss

detector Jul 12, 2019 11:08am | Post# 2535

{quote} Hi D! Stuck in trades then it's time to leave the broker
Yea too risky, good advive
I broke my rule and shorted WTI 60.25, believing in my charts today,

detector Jul 12, 2019 11:19am | Post# 2536

EU going back up, sure they wait for my exit and raise the price

Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 11:26am | Post# 2537

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seems like wti locked in the area below
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detector Jul 12, 2019 11:32am | Post# 2538

Find it hard to believe the Dow volume, (If the indicator is to be believed) seems so scarce it would hold and go beyond a new high, "Buy the highs" yeah but this never goes on forever or does it, haven't seen any major correction, the past few weeks of 100-250 point drop is nothing compared to a very while back when this was a regular and daily occurrence, or is this my parallel universe

Ll1979 Jul 12, 2019 11:38am | Post# 2539

Find it hard to believe the Dow volume, (If the indicator is to be believed) seems so scarce it would hold and go beyond a new high, "Buy the highs" yeah but this never goes on forever or does it, haven't seen any major correction, the past few weeks of 100-250 point drop is nothing compared to a very while back when this was a regular and daily occurrence, or is this my parallel universe
With the Us indices bad news is good news

detector Jul 12, 2019 11:48am | Post# 2540

{quote} With the Us indices bad news is good news
I'ts like the action movie, seeing the rope strands tearing one strand at a time, that's the one, Cliffhanger


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