Press Gross domestic product stagnates in the 4th quarter of 2019

No further growth of German economy at year-end

Press release No. 045 of 14 February 2020

Gross domestic product (GDP), 4th quarter of 2019
0.0% on the previous quarter (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+0.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)
+0.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) did not continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with the third quarter of 2019 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After a dynamic start in the first quarter (+0.5%) and a decline in the second quarter (-0.2%) there had been a slight recovery in the third quarter of the year (+0.2%). According to the latest calculations based on new statistical information, that recovery was 0.1 percentage points stronger than had been communicated in November 2019. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the resulting GDP growth was 0.6% for the year 2019 (both price and seasonally adjusted).

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Household and government final consumption expenditure slowed down

Compared with the previous quarter, there were mixed signals regarding domestic demand (after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment). After a very strong third quarter, the final consumption expenditure of both households and government slowed down markedly. Trends diverged for fixed capital formation. While gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was down considerably compared to the third quarter, fixed capital formation in construction and other fixed assets continued to increase.

Exports slightly down, imports up

The development of foreign trade slowed down the economic activity in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports were slightly down on the third quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment, while imports of goods and services increased.

Year-on-year comparison showing slower economic growth at year-end

In a year-on-year comparison, economic growth decelerated towards the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the price adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% on the fourth quarter of 2018 (calendar-adjusted: +0.4%). A higher year-on-year increase of 1.1% had been recorded in the third quarter of 2019 (calendar-adjusted: +0.6%).

Statistical carry-over effect of +0.1% at the end of 2019

According to the current state of calculation, there was a small statistical carry-over effect of +0.1% at the end of 2019. The statistical carry-over effect is the rate of GDP change which would be obtained for 2020 if the price, seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP in all quarters of 2019 just remained unchanged compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.

The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2019 was achieved by 45.5 million persons in employment, which was an increase of roughly 300,000, or 0.7%, on a year earlier.

Price-adjusted gross domestic product, price adjusted
 Unadjusted figures Figures according to X13
Seasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-adjusted 1Calendar-effect
2015 = 100% 22015 = 100% 32015 = 100% 2% 2
1 For years the calendar-adjusted values are identical with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
2 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
3 Change on the previous year or previous quarter in %.
qtr = quarter
2018106.351.5106.491.5106.491.50.0
2019106.950.6107.130.6107.130.60.0
20181st qtr105.281.6106.180.1105.302.3-0.7
2nd qtr105.752.5106.590.4105.662.10.4
3rd qtr106.691.1106.48-0.1107.091.10.0
4th qtr107.660.9106.700.2107.900.60.3
20191st qtr106.240.9107.210.5106.361.0-0.1
2nd qtr105.69-0.1106.95-0.2106.000.3-0.4
3rd qtr107.881.1107.160.2107.760.60.5
4th qtr107.970.3107.190.0108.380.4-0.2

 

Price-adjusted domestic product at current prices
 Unadjusted figuresSeasonally and calendar-adjusted
figures according to X13
EUR billionChange in %1EUR billionChange in %2
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year.
2 Change on the previous year or previous quarter.
qtr = quarter
20183,344.3703.13,348.8773.1
20193,435.7602.73,441.5832.8
20181st qtr819.2603.2828.5210.3
2nd qtr827.6604.0835.6940.9
3rd qtr836.9602.3838.3840.3
4th qtr860.4902.8846.2780.9
20191st qtr843.6303.0853.9790.9
2nd qtr845.1102.1856.4480.3
3rd qtr864.0103.2862.0260.7
4th qtr883.0102.6869.1300.8
Comparison between previous and new figures:
price-adjusted gross domestic product

  

New resultPrevious result
chain index
(2015 = 100)
Change
in %1
chain index
(2015 = 100)
Change in %1
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures
1 Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: Change on the previous year or the previous quarter in %.
Unadjusted figures: Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
qtr = quarter
2019107.130.6107.140.6
20191st qtr107.210.5107.200.5
2nd qtr106.95-0.2106.94-0.2
3rd qtr107.160.2107.030.1
4th qtr107.190.0xx
Unadjusted figures
2019106.950.6106.960.6
20191st qtr106.240.9106.240.9
2nd qtr105.69-0.1105.69-0.1
3rd qtr107.881.1107.761.0
4th qtr107.970.3xx

More detailed results will be released by the Federal Statistical Office on 25 February 2020. At that time, the results in interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german) will be updated too.

A long time series with quarterly results on the gross domestic product starting with the first quarter of 1970 is available here.

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