UK retail sales Preview: Black Friday online sales keep traditional sales weak ahead of Christmas

• Total UK retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% m/m in November with core sales excluding motor fuel sales seen rising 0.2% m/m as the trend from online sales madness on Black Friday indicate changing mood. 
• November UK retail sales are expected to confirm a soft tone of the final quarter regardless of the inflation-adjusted wages rising 1.0% y/y.
• The internet sales are on the rise while High Street shopping stall amid Brexit uncertainty peaking.

The total UK retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% over the month in November with core retail sales stripping the basket off motor fuel sales expected to rise 0.2% m/m, the Office for National Statistics is expected to report on Thursday, December 20 at 8:30 GMT.

When compared to a year ago, the total retail sales are seen decelerating to 1.9% y/y in November from 2.2% y/y in October while core retail stripping the gauge off motor fuel sales are expected to decelerate to 2.3% y/y from 2.7% y/y in the previous month.

November retail sales are characterized by the changed structure of sales with online sales outpacing the traditional High Street performance proving the digital age of new millennium. 

Only a mild pickup in the UK retail sales in November after fall in October was indicated by the report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) in cooperation with KPMG that monitored the retail sales between October 28 and November 24 this year to find retail sales increased by 0.5% on a like-for-like basis from November 2017, when they had increased 0.6% from the preceding year.

“This month cemented Black Friday as an increasingly digital event, with a record one-in-every-three-pounds of non-food purchases made online during the month. Black Friday week itself was bigger than last year but did little to lift the overall pace of spending, with sales growth in November falling to its lowest rate in seven months,” Helen Dickinson, the chief executive in British Retail Consortium noted in November report. 

The UK consumer confidence was weak since the Brexit referendum back in June 2016 but extended the fall as the Brexit uncertainty is peaking in recent months. The retail shoppers are therefore anxiously expecting the seasonal Christmas sales to save the quarter in the year full of ups and downs in sales.