Daily Commentary
 | 11/12/2017

New RBNZ Governor and NZD/USD spikes

• Mr. Adrian Orr has been named new RBNZ Governor for a term of 5 years. The appointment ended any uncertainty about RBNZ’s new governor and the kiwi reacted positively to the news. Mr. Orr will be governing RBNZ for a transitional period as the bank will be given a dual mandate, for inflation as well as employment, instead of the single mandate for inflation which it had until now. On the kiwi side of the pair, the NZD/USD could be influenced further from incoming fresh data from China this week.

• NZD/ USD rose by roughly 30 pips on the news during the Asian morning, however it remained within the boundaries of the sideways movement since the 24th of October with the upper limit being set at 0.7000 (R3) and the lower limit at 0.6700 (S3). Should the good news continue we could see the pair breaking the 0.6920 (R1) support limit and aim for the 0.6950 (R2). In case the bears take the driver’s seat the pair could break the 0.6870 (S1) barrier and aim for the 0.6820 (S2) support zone.

US Dollar recovering

• The US Dollar recovered since Friday’s minor hit after the release of the employment report. Moving forward, the market is expecting Wednesday’s rate decision from the FED. A rate hike is widely expected, to 1.5% from 1.25% currently. The course of the USD may be influenced by incoming financial data such as the US CPI and PPI for November due to be released tomorrow Tuesday, one day ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

• EUR/USD on Friday rose by about 22 pips on the release of the employment report and continued to trade on slightly higher grounds. Our opinion is that the pair remains on a sideways movement (Upper limit: 1.1960 (R3), Lower limit: 1.1550 (S3) ) which began on the 14th of November. Should the bulls take the reins the pair could break the resistance level of 1.1820 (R1) and aim the 1.1880 (R2) resistance zone. Should the bears take the driver’s seat the pair could break the 1.1725 (S1) barrier and aim for another test at 1.1680 (S2).

Today’s highlights:

• From Norway we get the CPI rate for November

• Speakers: Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy (08:00 GMT)

• As for the rest of the week on Tuesday we get UK’s CPI figure for November, on Wednesday we get the Fed interest rate decision, US CPI for November and UK’s unemployment Rate and average weekly earnings for October, on Thursday we get the BoE rate decision, the ECB rate decision, Australia’s Unemployment rate for November, Germany’s and Eurozone’s preliminary manufacturing PMIs for December, UK and US Retail sales for November and finally on Friday we get Japan’s Tankan large manufacturers index for Q4 and US Industrial Production for November.

EUR/USD

• Support: 1.1725 (S1), 1.1680 (S2), 1.1550 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.1820 (R1), 1.1880 (R2), 1.1960 (R3)

NZD/USD

• Support: 0.6870 (S1), 0.6820 (S2), 0.6700 (S3)

• Resistance: 0.6920 (R1), 0.6950 (R2), 0.7000 (R3)