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  • Fed shrugs off downturn concerns in latest minutes

    From thehill.com

    Despite recent concerns among business leaders that the economy may enter a contraction some time in the next six months, U.S. central bankers see the economic outlook as fundamentally healthy. The minutes of the latest meeting by the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee show bankers to be confident in the U.S. economic situation over the current time horizon. “Most survey respondents did not appear to be concerned about an economic downturn in either the near or medium term,” the Fed’s September meeting minutes read. Central bankers observed that views of financial market participants on the path of ... (full story)

Quoting Vancarbon
I do know there’s some serious leverage being used to keep these markets elevated into the election. Quite a political statement
There's always a big north binge prior to a much bigger dump, just taking the opportunity to pump atm. That bit never changes. Q3 earnings are the likely excuse but do think they're going to disappoint as it moves further into earnings season, and bear more reliable witness to the "real" state of the US economy.

Watching NZD and AUD for the buying spree, loading up short cover ahead of the dump. NZD has retraced to the 61.8 fib and finding good support (so far).
DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} There's always a big north binge prior to a much bigger dump, just taking the opportunity to pump atm. That bit never changes. Q3 earnings are the likely excuse but do think they're going to disappoint as it moves further into earnings season, and bear more reliable witness to the "real" state of the US economy. Watching NZD and AUD for the buying spree, loading up short cover ahead of the dump. NZD has retraced to the 61.8 fib and finding good support (so far).
The next general retraction on the US stocks will be around december, because that's how markets usually move.
Also the mutual funds movements are still on half, so there's a few more months to go.
Chase your dreams, because nobody will do it for you.
Quoting SupCnR
{quote} The next general retraction on the US stocks will be around december, because that's how markets usually move. Also the mutual funds movements are still on half, so there's a few more months to go.
But this isn't any ordinary year. November election, Trump tariffs if he gets in. That will affect all markets.
DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
There is no conspiracy to inflate stocks pre-election. Nobody has the kind of equity with which to game the market in this way, and, even if they did, they would be variously opposed by all the other gamers who'd like to try. It's an efficient market that works off the age-old human principles of greed and fear. Greed is in a long reign and Fear makes only very brief cameo appearances. For the past many months/years the primary risk destination world-wide has been US equities. Massive Chinese stimulus may unsettle that but I'd say only briefly. Falling UST yields will do the same, but only to a certain extent. And the potential for further uptrend in US equities will remain as long as there is massive liquidity ($6 trillion in US mm funds is only a piece of the pie) looking for yield and there is no real macro countertrend in the form of US recession. The latter will come, along with who knows what else the future will hold. For the time being, all you really need to know in this market is: btfd.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
There is no conspiracy to inflate stocks pre-election. Nobody has the kind of equity with which to game the market in this way,.
I'm looking at this, you just know it's going to plug at some point.
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DODGERS World Series Champions '24 !!!! YESSSS
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} I'm looking at this, you just know it's going to plug at some point. {image}
Yes, I'm waiting. Rolling put spreads again tomorrow. If you can't get a pullback in October of an election year, though, then idkwtf....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} But this isn't any ordinary year. November election, Trump tariffs if he gets in. That will affect all markets.
The tariffs Biden kept in place or the new tariffs Biden implemented earlier this year?
Quoting The Fool
There is no conspiracy to inflate stocks pre-election. Nobody has the kind of equity with which to game the market in this way, and, even if they did, they would be variously opposed by all the other gamers who'd like to try. It's an efficient market that works off the age-old human principles of greed and fear. Greed is in a long reign and Fear makes only very brief cameo appearances. For the past many months/years the primary risk destination world-wide has been US equities. Massive Chinese stimulus may unsettle that but I'd say only briefly....
oh yes, its a fee market working efficiently
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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    From federalreserve.gov|Oct 9, 2024|8 comments

    The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Nominal Treasury yields declined notably over the period, driven by weaker-than-expected data releases—especially the July employment report in early August—and policy communications that were seen as affirming expectations that a reduction in policy restraint would begin at this meeting. The decline in nominal yields over the period was primarily attributable to lower expected real yields, but measures of inflation compensation declined as well. Broad equity prices finished the period modestly higher, while credit spreads had come off the very tight levels seen earlier this year but were still narrow by historical standards. Overall, risky asset prices were compatible with continued economic expansion. The manager also discussed the brief episode of elevated market volatility in early August. That episode saw some large moves in U.S. and foreign equity indexes, equity-implied volatilities, the dollar–yen exchange rate, and Treasury yields. These sharp moves appeared to be the result of a rapid unwinding of some speculative trading positions induced by unrelated events—such as the unexpectedly inflation-focused communications from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in late July and the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report in early August—and amplified by technical and liquidity factors. All told, the unwinding process was contained, and market functioning recovered relatively quickly. Turning to policy expectations, the manager noted that the market-implied policy rate path shifted down materially. At the time of the September meeting, the modal path for the federal funds rate implied by options prices was consistent wit post: *FED: 'SOME' OFFICIALS WOULD HAVE PREFERRED QUARTER-POINT CUT *FED: 'SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY' BACKED HALF-POINT RATE CUT post: FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL PARTICIPANTS AGREED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION HAD DIMINISHED. post: FED MINUTES: SEVERAL DISCUSSED IMPORTANCE OF COMMUNICATING QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING COULD CONTINUE FOR 'SOME TIME' EVEN AS RATES ARE REDUCED

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