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Securing the Soft Landing
The U.S. economy distinguished itself in 2023 and 2024, achieving growth rates of 2.5%–3%, while DM peers largely stagnated at 0%–1%. U.S. productivity has also outpaced DM peers since the pandemic. In our April 2024 Cyclical Outlook, “Diverging Markets, Diversified Portfolios,” we identified two main drivers: • Fiscal policy: A larger cumulative fiscal stimulus since 2021 has led to greater private wealth accumulation in the U.S., which has taken longer to dissipate. • Monetary policy: The pass-through of higher interest rates to households has been slower in the U.S., largely due to the existing stock ... (full story)