Investors are 'dramatically overestimating' an oil glut, Carlyle's Jeff Currie says

New U.S. biofuels data. Biomass-based diesel products are making up an increasing share of the total distillate fuel oil consumed in the United States. Beginning this month, we will publish forecasts for several new series that better capture how biofuels are being consumed and the share of total distillate fuel oil they account for. We expect that although U.S. total distillate fuel oil consumption will fall slightly this year to average 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), biofuels will account for 9% (360,000 b/d) of that consumption, up from 8% last year and 5% in 2022. • New propane retail price data. Also starting this month, we will be publishing monthly retail propane price forecasts by region. In our forecast, the U.S. average retail propane price for the upcoming heating season (November–March) averages $2.50 per gallon (gal), which would be unchanged from last winter. Prices for this winter range from an average of $3.35/gal on the East Coast to $2.00/gal in the Midwest, both of which are similar to last winter. • Crude oil prices. Despite a drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to $73 per barrel (b) on September 6, we expect ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories will push prices back above $80/b this month. More oil will be taken out of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24) that we previously expected because OPEC+ announced that they will delay production increases until December. Those increases had been set to start in October. Although market concerns over economic and oil demand growth, particularly in China, have increased, causing oil prices to fall, OPE post: #OOTT | EIA STEO Current Yr Crude F'cast (Bpd) Sep: 13.25M (prev 13.23M) - Forward Yr Crude F'cast (Bpd): 13.67M (prev 13.69M) - Current Yr Dry NatGas F'cast (Bcf/d): 103.37 (prev 103.26) - Forward Yr Dry NatGas F'cast (Bcf/d): 104.76 (prev 104.64) https://t.co/lrkVjEBv5L pic.twitter.com/Q3D3f72x2K U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent crude oil prices will return to above $80 per barrel this month, after dipping to $73 per barrel on September 6. In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year. Market concerns over economic growth and oil demand have increased, but EIA expects that global oil reserves will begin to decline as OPEC+ production cuts result in global oil consumption exceeding global oil production. OPEC+ member countries announced last week that they will be delaying production increases until December. Those increases were initially set to begin next month. "We expect that oil prices will be pushed upward in the coming weeks and months as global oil consumption outpaces production," said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. "There are uncertainties in the market, including demand growth in China and supply disruptions in the Middle East, that could push prices higher or lower in the short term."