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  • The US Employment Situation -- August 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. Both the unemployment ... (full story)

Added at 8:33am

  • U.S. payrolls grew by 142,000 in August, less than expected

    From cnbc.com

    The U.S. economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a slowing labor market while also clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this month. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, down from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. The labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor ... (full story)

Big miss and a massive downward revision to Payrolls... AGAIN! You can't make this shit up. US is officially in recession at this point.

u6 unemployment rate to nearly 8% now...
Hard times ahead, rate deductions will only bring temporary relief.
NFP good from last month. So, lets have a jump!
previous revised to 89k from 114, now @ 142k, with unemployment @4.2. not bad.
chaos is just unknown order
0.5 set inc
25bps still i believe so.
Very mixed. Worst case scenario for the Fed if they want to cut by 50 bps. Not much slowing in the labor market coupled with higher wage inflation.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.1 million unemployed people. These figures have changed little over the past month, suggesting stability in the broader labor market.

Wages continue to rise, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% (14 cents) in August to $35.21. Over the past 12 months, wages have risen by 3.8%, reflecting steady income growth amid a tightening labor market.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, driven by gains in construction (+34,000) and health care (+31,000). Despite being lower than the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the past year, these figures reflect ongoing strength in key sectors.

Last month's print was revised lower to 89K. That might be the story here.

Manufacturing employment fell by 24,000, driven by a decline of 25,000 jobs in durable goods industries. This reflects ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector, with little net employment growth over the past year.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting Luxyus
previous revised to 89k from 114, now @ 142k, with unemployment @4.2. not bad.
Full-time workers: -438K
Part-time workers: +527K

Please tell me what are you smoking? and where can I get this from, this is a disaster with u6 at nearly 8% it hasn't been this high since 80s where there was double digit inflation and recession.
so most likely no rate cut this month?
sorry im still learning..
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Quoting MatTrader101
Big miss and a massive downward revision to Payrolls... AGAIN! You can't make this shit up. US is officially in recession at this point. u6 unemployment rate to nearly 8% now...

And you're "who" exactly declaring recession?
Quoting brewokz
so most likely no rate cut this month? sorry im still learning..
The Fed will either cut by 25bps or 50bps in September. So, 99.99% that the Fed will cut.
Quoting Guest
{quote} And you're "who" exactly declaring recession?
A guy that can read economic data
Great data. trump and putin crying.
NFP downward revision. Came very bad both NFP and ADP readings. Both are very low decline, I saw it after a lot of years. Job market collapse so badly GDP will greatly affect in the US economy for the long term. FED rate cut should start in series maintain 25,50, 75 bps....and then Flat. USD will maintain bearish in long term. Charming pair Gold and Bitcoin will maintain bullish trend. Now Bitcoin is time break out higher high to maintain long cycle. we may call it bull run and it will be maintained. from now we can see Bitcon hammering until it breaks out higher high.
Quoting brewokz
so most likely no rate cut this month? sorry im still learning..
100% chance of a cut this month is currently baked into the market....and has been since June. The unknown is (and has been) the size of that cut. It has fluctuated on each big data dump/news event. Yesterday, there was a 60/40 shot at a 25/50 bp cut. After today's NFP, that has shifted to 65/35. On August 5th, the big down day in the markets, the chance was 15/85 (yes, 85% thought a 50bps was coming according to the fed futures).

Nearly as important is how MANY cuts (and over what period). The link below will help guide you on the actual numbers (they are derived from the /zq futures contract).

The big unknown (to everyone, don't let any on here or elsewhere fool you) is what the market will do based on the numbers released. One firm might say "bad news is bad" because the cut has to be larger. and the FED is behind. Another could say "bad numbers are good" because the FED cut CAN be larger to help right the ship. While another could say "bad numbers are bad" because the FED can't cut 50 without freaking out the markets and yet they are slow to do this so we think a recession is coming....and so on.

Price action is really the only thing you can rely upon here........but, if you are trading very short-term, that is usually a "lagging" indicator in terms of taking a position BEFORE a big news event.

To help you follow this real time: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

Best of luck on your trading journey! Advice: If you are just starting out, stay SMALL (relative to your bankroll of course) in these volatile times. People get wiped out jumping into markets at the wrong time (most of us have been there...maybe multiple times). Only trade what you can afford to lose. Once it becomes easier for you, you can ramp up the risk to suit your needs/tastes. Also remember: if your time horizon is long enough, the US equity markets want to go higher.....(eventually)
i bet next FOMC for 25bps. No sense for 50bps. The Fed need to keep inflation on progress and labor market stay health. This is case for soft landing. We only need to know how many cuts till december the Fed gonna take.
Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting Ftmofx
NFP downward revision. Came very bad both NFP and ADP readings. Both are very low decline, I saw it after a lot of years. Job market collapse so badly GDP will greatly affect in the US economy for the long term. FED rate cut should start in series maintain 25,50, 75 bps....and then Flat. USD will maintain bearish in long term. Charming pair Gold and Bitcoin will maintain bullish trend. Now Bitcoin is time break out higher high to maintain long cycle. we may call it bull run and it will be maintained. from now we can see Bitcon hammering until it...
Are you are proposing a return to 0% interest rates (and a fast return at that)??? If so....yikes.

If you were just saying a 25, then 50, then 75, then wait....that's different, but would still be a "yikes"-worthy comment.
Quoting EventsTrader
Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.
dont think so man
chaos is just unknown order
Quoting EventsTrader
Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.
They can't do 50 bps cut, otherwise it will be a black swan event and stock market crash.

it will be 25bps will a revised forecast for 3 more cuts this year.
i dont smell "recession" on this point. Why the Fed have to reduce rate by 50bps? Market expectation is too high.
Quoting EventsTrader
Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.
I am with you and Cat. FED isn't going to rock the boat here. Markets got ahead of themselves. It happens. The FED is ALWAYS going to seem "late to the party" because they don't want to be cutting too early. Data has to look 'bad' before they can make a move (otherwise, hiking later REALLY shows a lack of conviction that 'scares the children', as they say).

25 in Sept and likely thereafter.....but the pace (number/frequency) and terminal rate will be what the market cares about now.
[quote=Luxyus;14989596]previous revised to 89k from 114, now @ 142k, with unemployment @4.2. not bad.[/quote

I agreed with you. NOT A BAD RESULTs The average hourly & unemployment rate are also good
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} They can't do 50 bps cut, otherwise it will be a black swan event and stock market crash. it will be 25bps will a revised forecast for 3 more cuts this year.
I agree on the 25bps, but I am not sure if you can call something that sits at a 35% expected occurrence today (and 85% chance on August 5th.....though, that was whacky for obvious reasons) can be considered a black swan event.

The black swan event would have been a completely unexpected 50/75 bps cut last week for no planned reason.
59% for 50bps right. are you kidding me right now hello fedwatch tool.
Quoting Catalyst24
59% for 50bps right. are you kidding me right now hello fedwatch tool.
Oh, wow, those just updated then.....5 minutes ago it was 35% (after the number), down from 40% yesterday.

I guess I have to do my own math off the /zq from now on.
Quoting ffghost
{quote} I am with you and Cat. FED isn't going to rock the boat here. Markets got ahead of themselves. It happens. The FED is ALWAYS going to seem "late to the party" because they don't want to be cutting too early. Data has to look 'bad' before they can make a move (otherwise, hiking later REALLY shows a lack of conviction that 'scares the children', as they say). 25 in Sept and likely thereafter.....but the pace (number/frequency) and terminal rate will be what the market cares about now.
Agreed but here's the disconnect which is the MARKETS.

The markets are indicating a 100bps by the end of the year. In my opinion I don't see that at this moment unless data really deteriorates in the following months. So what happens if the cuts that the markets anticipated don't happen like the projections say?

The FED looks like they'll take the slow approach in cutting. They'll probably cut 25bps and look at the scenery and gauge the data moving forward.

It's all shaping up to be an interesting end of the year honestly.
The solution is (x).
Quoting ffghost
{quote} I agree on the 25bps, but I am not sure if you can call something that sits at a 35% expected occurrence today (and 85% chance on August 5th.....though, that was whacky for obvious reasons) can be considered a black swan event. The black swan event would have been a completely unexpected 50/75 bps cut last week for no planned reason.
Foreign-born workers: +635K in August
Native-born workers: -1.325 MILLION in August

The more you read the data released the worst it gets for the US.

Absolute disaster, and if the data continues to print poorly I can imagine emergency cuts coming potentially.

Also Yields are reverting, massive signal that a recession is coming within 6 - 12 months time frame, I believe US is already in recession.
Williams is speaking and seems like it's a political event. Waller is speaking at 11am. Then, we have CPI next week.

If Waller doesn't provide guidance I'd be surprised. And I agree that this is nuts! Basically 50/50! There couldn't be any more uncertainty heading into the Fed blackout period. Not normal.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
The inability of the US economy to create more jobs reflects the power of US dollars which conversely affect the gold metal market price
that will disaster for US if The Fed choose to cut by 50bps. i know the unemployment is the Fed focus right now but with 50bps, okay labor market will happy with that decision in short term and then we will face inflation back to +3%. even with 5.5% it so hard to pressing the inflation back to 2% and now ppl looks crazy with 50bps.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Foreign-born workers: +635K in August Native-born workers: -1.325 MILLION in August The more you read the data released the worst it gets for the US. Absolute disaster, and if the data continues to print poorly I can imagine emergency cuts coming potentially. Also Yields are reverting, massive signal that a recession is coming within 6 - 12 months time frame, I believe US is already in recession.
I haven't read the full report to understand the numbers, but could that have something to do with the fact that kids who held summer jobs (16-21) are going back to school starting in August? They'd show up as fewer workers but NOT on the unemployment list as new recipients.

FED watch has futures back to a 50/50 flip now. The percentages of that thing are as wild as the /zb and /6j have been this morning
Quoting Catalyst24
that will disaster for US if The Fed choose to cut by 50bps. i know the unemployment is the Fed focus right now but with 50bps, okay labor market will happy with that decision in short term and then we will face inflation back to +3%. even with 5.5% it so hard to pressing the inflation back to 2% and now ppl looks crazy with 50bps.
Remember, the shift to a 50 bps cut is the knee-jerk reaction to the data (like 85% expectation that popped back in August). If the markets really bake in 50 after next week's #s, then look out if only a 25 comes. Until then, I kind of treat these like a presidential poll after a major political event: the numbers suggest a temporary rise/fall but need to stabilize before they become meaningful to the next event.
still dovish .... so how to cut rates for this month .... so very bad
Follow price direction
It certainly looks as though the equity markets aren't willing to pop through yesterday's close though (and the /nq has spent the past 30 minutes consolidating under a resistance TL). The open will be interesting in 10 minutes.

Quick: everyone go out and buy 500 /nq contracts right now and trigger some stops!
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Full-time workers: -438K Part-time workers: +527K Please tell me what are you smoking? and where can I get this from, this is a disaster with u6 at nearly 8% it hasn't been this high since 80s where there was double digit inflation and recession.
cohiba, want to taste?
chaos is just unknown order
GOLD still in sideways tf H1 ..... so better price down for false break 2470.74 , then going up more continuation up trend (2646.24 as target)
Follow price direction
Warren Buffett Dumping more BofA Stock I think he smells recession ready to be served
Bad things is bad. We have to accept it. Dont fall in trap. For stability the USD what is next. It will give up fall buy within few minutes
Quoting ffghost
{quote} I agree on the 25bps, but I am not sure if you can call something that sits at a 35% expected occurrence today (and 85% chance on August 5th.....though, that was whacky for obvious reasons) can be considered a black swan event. The black swan event would have been a completely unexpected 50/75 bps cut last week for no planned reason.
ye if you are informed enough to be here you can be informed enough to know a black swan is an event with no probability even assigned to it by a market. They are unknown unknowns at the tail. Rate cuts are known unknowns.
Everyone is smeling recesion. Buy the dip.
I would love for you to be right (and so would my account balance)....but............there just doesn't seem to be a bottom in (yet). No real technical reason to do so (which is what would be needed in the absolute absence of good fundamental data). Trend still solidly lower (as is clearly being stated by this morning's rout....).

There's a case to be made for the /nq[u24] having just retraced 61.8% (strong fib @ 18614) of it the 8/8 lows to 8/22 highs, but that's a fairly weak argument in the face of such downward pressure.
Nasdaq down >2% on what arguably was a Goldilocks NFP. I was hoping for something less ambiguous. But markets showing their hand, par for the last week or so, ready to turn bearish at the drop of a hat. You could say: it's September. I'd bet we will see markets tiptoeing around until the FOMC. After they cut on 9/18, I wouldn't bet too hard against BTFD. But, a decent pullback of at least 10% would put us at SnP 5,000 +/- from the recent ath. So, as usual, I'll have trades on to catch bear moves lower and hedge trades for bull action. I could see markets tanking on a 25bps cut, not a 50. Or, tanking on a 50 cut, not a 25. No way for the Fed to thread that needle, really. So, flip a coin....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I don't follow the yen too much, but that CB week with FOMC and Bank of Japan back-to-back promises to be something to watch and trade hard if you like that kind of thing...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Updated Fed Watch chance of 50bps falls to 23%
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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