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  • The US Employment Situation -- July 2024

    From bls.gov

    The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in ... (full story)

Added at 8:35am

  • Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

    From cnbc.com

    Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation barometer, increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%. Stock market futures added to losses following the report while Treasury ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:32am Aug 2, 2024 8:32am
Software landing..... here it comes
  • #2
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:32am Aug 2, 2024 8:32am
  •  Trader#8DB7
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Thar she blows !!
  • #3
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:34am Aug 2, 2024 8:34am
Something tells me USD might try to do a run-up move with this bad data.
The solution is (x).
  • #4
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:34am Aug 2, 2024 8:34am
Liquidation playinggg hard! Trade safely brothers
  • #5
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:34am Aug 2, 2024 8:34am
still DOVISH .... no cut rates in September
Follow price direction
  • #6
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:35am Aug 2, 2024 8:35am
Quoting hesron
still DOVISH .... no cut rates in September
Not? No they should have cut yesterday
  • #7
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:35am Aug 2, 2024 8:35am
Strong dollar is expected since no rate cut soon
  • #8
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:35am Aug 2, 2024 8:35am
Big cuts incoming
  • #9
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:36am Aug 2, 2024 8:36am
Quoting Banditten
{quote} Not? No they should have cut yesterday
we will see .... but depend on all data from USD = no cut rates in September
Follow price direction
  • #10
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:38am Aug 2, 2024 8:38am
  •  Trader#CE55
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
There's more data on the way, but this NFP report literally cements rate cut in September. If decision was tomorrow, then Fed would be cutting rates.
  • #11
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:40am Aug 2, 2024 8:40am
Quoting hesron
{quote} we will see .... but depend on all data from USD = no cut rates in September
Which data does not support a cut? All numbers are to the trashcan. Distegard the GDP hwhich will be revisor down and remember the dual mandate.
  • #12
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:44am Aug 2, 2024 8:44am
US can afford it, EU can't. Soft landing or not.
  • #13
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:44am Aug 2, 2024 8:44am
  •  Trader#A1FB
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
25 bps or 50 bps which is it for you
  • #14
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:46am Aug 2, 2024 8:46am
Overall weak report regarding the labor market, especially when considering the back revisions. Wage inflation isn't as weak as the m/m indicates.


Health Care sector added 55,000 jobs in July, with gains in home health care services (+22,000), hospitals (+20,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Construction: Added 25,000 jobs, continuing the trend with an average gain of 19,000 per month over the past year.

Government increased by 17,000 jobs.

Average Hourly Earnings, despite being below expectations on the month, up 3.6% y/y.


Total nonfarm payrolls for May and June was revised down by a combined 280,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market might not have been as strong as initially reported.

114,000 in July, below the average monthly gain of 215,000 over the past 12 months.

The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 346,000 to 4.6 million, suggesting an increase in underemployment.

Social Assistance added 9,000 jobs, slower than the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the past year.

Employment in the information sector declined by 20,000 jobs in July, showing a significant sectoral weakness.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #15
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:47am Aug 2, 2024 8:47am
Rate cut on September is almost confirm... After generate liquidity we will see big dump on DXY
  • #16
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:47am Aug 2, 2024 8:47am
  •  Trader#262E
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Now it is clear that the September cut will be at least 50 BP. Other economic data does not matter to fed only inflation and jobs. Jobs alone is reason to cut 50 BP.
  • #17
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:49am Aug 2, 2024 8:49am
  •  Trader#CE55
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Also, ISM Services PMI on Monday which should come out around 47, way below expectation of 51. Not good folks... not good.
  • #18
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  • Aug 2, 2024 8:50am Aug 2, 2024 8:50am
Sahm-rule has just signalled the start of the recession.

3-month average is 4,13 (may-jul 24) which is 0,50 above lowest 3-month average in the last 12 months, which was 3,63 (jul-sep 23).

Letting covid aside, the last time it happened was in Apr 2008 and before that in Jun 2001. We all know what happened after that in both mentioned cases.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
  • #19
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  • Aug 2, 2024 9:00am Aug 2, 2024 9:00am
  •  Trader#CE55
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
102Y Spread almost uninverted now (100% correct track record for calling recessions). -0.09 as it stands now. The data is so bad that even the stocks tanked even though this means September rate cut is coming. It was THAT bad! Stocks should recover, however it'll take some time.
  • #20
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  • Aug 2, 2024 9:03am Aug 2, 2024 9:03am
25 bps rate cut on the table in the September meeting. Although inflation did not come 2% leveling but very cooling which expected range. US economy is vulnerable due to the high FED rate held by the central Bank for a long time. US firms can not carry the interest rate as a load for long and they hang in live support. Not only the labor market with their wages, but all sectors are affected for this. They need interest rate cut immediately
  • #21
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  • Aug 2, 2024 9:24am Aug 2, 2024 9:24am
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
50 BPS is now on the table for Sept.
  • #22
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  • Aug 2, 2024 9:31am Aug 2, 2024 9:31am
25 bps cut already in markets in Sep. Powell risks market crash if he does not follow big money players. Any more cut/pause/ hike are inflation dependent. Dual mandate.

Happy Trades To You!
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #23
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  • Aug 2, 2024 9:49am Aug 2, 2024 9:49am
Quoting Guest
25 bps or 50 bps which is it for you
I am going with 0.75 lolzzz
  • #24
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  • Aug 2, 2024 10:21am Aug 2, 2024 10:21am
Black Swan
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #25
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  • Aug 2, 2024 10:27am Aug 2, 2024 10:27am
about time it finally implodes, enough with this BS, this thing has been running on hopes, dreams and unicorns
  • #26
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  • Aug 2, 2024 10:44am Aug 2, 2024 10:44am
Why is Gold dropping?
  • #27
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  • Aug 2, 2024 10:53am Aug 2, 2024 10:53am
Gold dropping only for price manipulation
Follow price direction
  • #28
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:00am Aug 2, 2024 11:00am
Odds of Fed Sept rate cut at 100%. 35% odds of 25bps, 65% odds of 50bps.
  • #29
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:01am Aug 2, 2024 11:01am
Quoting hesron
Gold dropping only for price manipulation
Could you ellaborate more?
  • #30
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:14am Aug 2, 2024 11:14am
Quoting hesron
Gold dropping only for price manipulation
This is beyond Manipulation!!!
  • #31
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:20am Aug 2, 2024 11:20am
  •  Trader#4821
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Horiyomy
{quote} This is beyond Manipulation!!!
my guy, there is no reason. it’s overbought. it’s mostly a speculative asset. it’s industrial use is diminished in a slowing global economy. its common use is diminished when rich people’s portfolios take a hit, like right now. its already at an all-time high and it fully priced in everything, so now its time to reprice.
  • #32
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:31am Aug 2, 2024 11:31am
Quoting Guest
{quote}my guy, there is no reason. it’s overbought. it’s mostly a speculative asset. it’s industrial use is diminished in a slowing global economy. its common use is diminished when rich people’s portfolios take a hit, like right now. its already at an all-time high and it fully priced in everything, so now its time to reprice.
no .... that is pure price manipulation ..... and most big trader in risk now
Follow price direction
  • #33
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  • Aug 2, 2024 11:37am Aug 2, 2024 11:37am
I can say both of you are making Sense....Thanks, Buddie.
  • #34
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  • Aug 2, 2024 12:10pm Aug 2, 2024 12:10pm
Did you know that this data is just a survey?
lol
  • #35
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  • Aug 2, 2024 12:15pm Aug 2, 2024 12:15pm
Quoting Spik
Sahm-rule has just signalled the start of the recession. 3-month average is 4,13 (may-jul 24) which is 0,50 above lowest 3-month average in the last 12 months, which was 3,63 (jul-sep 23). Letting covid aside, the last time it happened was in Apr 2008 and before that in Jun 2001. We all know what happened after that in both mentioned cases. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
And yet Claudia Sahm rejects the notion that we are in a recession: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com.../112147523.cms
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sahm.png Size: 76 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #36
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  • Aug 2, 2024 12:18pm Aug 2, 2024 12:18pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} And yet Claudia Sahm rejects the notion that we are in a recession: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com.../112147523.cms {image}
But does it matter? Its a trend and it has been for a while. Wheter a recession or not doesnt matter. What matters is that economy is not as strong as somebody thought.
  • #37
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  • Aug 2, 2024 12:24pm Aug 2, 2024 12:24pm
Quoting Banditten
{quote} But does it matter? Its a trend and it has been for a while. Wheter a recession or not doesnt matter. What matters is that economy is not as strong as somebody thought.
No it doesn't matter. Just another silly rule that doesn't take into account any context.

As far as the equity market goes there is a ton of cash on the sidelines just waiting to scoop us good deals.

In addition, there is a large percentage of home woners who have 100s of thousands of dollars in equity in their homes with tons of leverage at their disposal. Furthermore, if/when the FED cuts it just makes money cheaper for large institutions to.....you guessed it....buy more equities
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #38
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  • Aug 2, 2024 12:47pm Aug 2, 2024 12:47pm
Quoting mvp77
Did you know that this data is just a survey? lol
If it is a survey, then it is a manipulated survey

Now more revision for past months when the reaction would have been so much more different, it may mean that USD would not have been this elevated if it has reported the right figures at those time.

20% revision is a damn bad or intentional dishonesty
  • #39
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  • Aug 2, 2024 1:06pm Aug 2, 2024 1:06pm
If it is really first time claims, following this amount, assuming this survey only say about full-time workers, 133m full-time workforce will vanish in next 500 weeks. 10years huh, buy USD.
Binds move with curiousity, may the risk rebates
  • #40
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  • Aug 4, 2024 1:18pm Aug 4, 2024 1:18pm
I still try to understand how to interpret these news,
  • #41
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  • Aug 5, 2024 9:40am Aug 5, 2024 9:40am
Quoting Spik
Sahm-rule has just signalled the start of the recession. 3-month average is 4,13 (may-jul 24) which is 0,50 above lowest 3-month average in the last 12 months, which was 3,63 (jul-sep 23). Letting covid aside, the last time it happened was in Apr 2008 and before that in Jun 2001. We all know what happened after that in both mentioned cases. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
Good analysis. In addition, all major recessions (with the exception of COVID) in the past were preceded by a negative 10Y2Y spread, which ended in a recession 1-2 years later. The 10Y2Y spread turned negative in June 2022. This is only a matter of time.
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