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Four Bank of England scenarios for markets this Thursday
Financial markets reckon Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is a 50:50 call between the first 25bp rate cut and another ‘on hold’ decision. We’re leaning towards a cut, though we agree nothing is for certain. We know that this week’s decision will hinge on a handful of committee members who felt the June decision was “finely balanced”. We’ve heard very little from officials since the general election was called in June, and that means it’s tricky to gauge how they are interpreting the recent upside news on services inflation. This metric has come in well above the BoE’s most recent forecasts, but ... (full story)