US consumer confidence declines in July

Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.2 percent; goods increased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4). table The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts (table 2). The $57.6 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected an increase of $53.1 billion in spending for services and an increase of $4.5 billion in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were other services (led by international travel) and housing and utilities (led by housing). Within goods, the largest contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical and other medical products) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by information processing equipment). These increases were partly offset by decreases in motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) and gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.5U. post: 3-month annualized core PCE inflation was 2.3% in June, the lowest since December The 6-month annualized rate was 3.4%, the highest in a year (but still below the 4.0% rate of one year earlier)PCE inflation slips to 2.5% in June - BEA Overall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June, adding to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index slipped to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% the prior month. Economists had expected the figure to climb to 2.5%. Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, the year-on-year "core" gauge, widely known as the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, remained at 2.6%, unchanged from the May figure. It was seen slowing to 2.5%. Month-on-month, the headline figures came in at 0.1%, while the "core" monthly release rose 0.2%, both as expected. While U.S. gross domestic product data, released earlier this week, showed healthy growth in the second quarter of the year, the widely-watched consumer price index fell in June for the first time in four years. That cooler-than-expected report set off a rotation in equities and cemented market expectations that the Fed is primed to cut rates inOverall U.S. inflation cooled as expected in June, adding to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September The broadly weak trend of US macro data was jolted yesterday by a hotter than expected GDP print - which prompted a hawkish shift in rate-cut expectations. This morning, the doves get another chance for some 'bad news' (disinflation) to support their 'we must cut' narrative (that Dudley et al. have exposed). The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - instead came in slightly hotter than expected, rising 2.6% YoY (vs +2.5% YoY exp). The headline PCE dipped to +2.5%... chart Under the hood, durable goods deflation continues to drag Core PCE lower while Services costs continue to rise... chart Even more notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM, which saw YoY rise to 3.43%... which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels...