Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Continues but Overdue for a Correction

Natural gas blasted through potential resistance at the 200-Day MA on Thursday to hit a new trend high of 2.575. Resistance then kicked in leading to an intraday pullback. That high completed a rising ABCD pattern where the CD leg was 200% of the advance in the AB leg of the pattern. The 200-Day MA is at 2.46 and natural gas continues to trade above that price level at the time of this writing. A daily close above the 200-Day line indicates that the uptrend may have more to go.

Can Strength Continue?

Certainly, today’s bullish price action is a sign of strength as natural gas recently busted through three price zones that could have seen resistance, especially the 200-Day line. However, can demand remain strong enough to take out today’s high and keep rising? That remains to be seen.

Rally Extended

The current rally is extended and closer to a top than it has been. As of today’s high, natural gas is up by 62.7% from the April 25 swing low at 1.58. That makes the current rally the largest on a percentage basis since the initial trend low from February 2023. Nevertheless, if the 200-Day MA can continue to act as support, the price of natural gas has a chance of continuing its rise. The next higher target zone is at 2.68 to 2.70. Those price levels are the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a 127.2% extension of a 51.8% measured move (purple arrows) that matches the rally beginning in August 2023, respectively. The high target is the top blue dashed falling channel line.

Drop Below 2.39 Should Lead to Deeper Pullback

A decisive drop below the 200-Day MA may provide an initial indication that a retracement may be coming. But a drop below today’s low of 2.39 will provide a clearer short-term bearish signal. Potential support from the 20-Day MA is down at 2.07. Higher price levels to watch on the way down are marked on the chart in black right extended lines from prior swing highs and lows. They include 2.31, 2.23, and 2.17. Fibonacci levels will be added on the chart if a retracement begins.

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