(Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest nuclear plant is likely to resume generation this year after more than a decade offline, part of a revival of the technology that will help ease Japanese power costs, according to BloombergNEF. 

Tokyo Electric Power Co. will start output from the No. 7 unit at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa facility in October under a base-case scenario, BNEF analysts including Mariko O’Neil and Yumi Kim said in the research group’s inaugural report on Japan’s power market, published Monday. It will be the first time Tepco will operate a nuclear reactor under safety rules implemented after the meltdowns at its Fukushima Dai-Ichi facility in 2011, which led Japan to halt all its atomic generation.

Japan has sought to accelerate the restart of reactors to reduce power costs, ensure stable supply and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Tepco last month won approval to load fuel into the reactor in Niigata prefecture and the government has urged local officials to grant the necessary permissions for its restart. 

Read More: Nuclear Power’s Revival Reaches Home of Last Meltdown

The Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant has seven units with a total capacity of about 8 gigawatts. The restart of No. 7 is part of a series that would see five reactors across the nation back online by 2025, a pace that would still fall short of government targets to have nuclear make up about a fifth of the power mix by 2030, BNEF said.  

“The current schedule would require Japan to nearly double its active nuclear capacity between the end of 2025 and 2030,” the analysts said. “The shortfall left by delays in the nuclear restart program will largely be met by gas generation.”

Monthly average electricity prices are set to fall 11% in 2024 from a year earlier, as demand remains sluggish and the nuclear restarts and new wind and solar generation boost supply, according to the report. 

  • Japan’s next-day electricity price was 8.7 yen/kWh on Monday, down 24% from a week earlier when it was 11.4 yen/kWh, according to the Japan Electric Power Exchange
  • Widespread areas of the country are expected to see sunny and/or cloudy weather this week, according to Japan Meteorological Agency
    • Temperatures in Tokyo and Osaka may rise as high as 28C, which could heighten cooling demand
  • A gas-fired unit at Kashima Kyodo Thermal Power Plant, operated by Kashima Kyodo Electric Power Co., saw an unplanned outage on Sunday due to fuel adjustment measures, according to a listing on JEPX; unit is expected to restart on Monday
  • Mayor of Genkai, a town located in Saga Prefecture in the south, said the municipality will accept an initial survey for choosing a final disposal site for nuclear waste, according to NHK report on Friday
  • Baseload Tokyo power for May delivery on EEX settled at 11.07 yen/kWh on Friday, down 5.5% from previous week
    • June contract at 13.3 yen/kWh, down 2.5%
  • Other Japan power market related news:
    • J-Power to Decommission 5 Coal Power Plants by FY2030 (May 9)

(Updates with details of Japan power market figures from Monday)

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