Informations Rapides · 30 April 2024 · n° 106

GDP grows moderately (+0.2%) in Q1 2024  Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2024

In Q1 2024, gross domestic product (GDP) increased moderately in volume terms* (+0.2% after +0.1% in the previous quarter).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) bounced back and contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+0.4 points after 0.0 points in Q4 2023), due to the acceleration in household consumption (+0.4% after +0.2%) and the rebound of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.3% after ‑0.9%).

Conversely, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth fell to zero in Q1 2024 (0.0 points after +1.0 point). Indeed, imports were slightly back on the rise (+0.2% after ‑2.3%), while exports increased by 0.5% after +0.4%.

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter. It stood at ‑0.2 points after ‑0.9 points in Q4 2023.

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).

Total production (goods and services) continued to rise in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.3% after +0.2% in the previous quarter).

Manufacturing industry production declined slightly (‑0.1% after ‑0.1%): production in transport equipment decreased due to supply issues (‑4.4% after +1.1%), as did production in coking and refining, due to the closure of a refinery at the beginning of the year (‑3.8% after ‑1.8%). However, production rebounded sharply in food industry (+4.1% after ‑1.2%).

Construction production was stable (0.0% after ‑0.6%).

The production of market services accelerated this quarter (+0.8% after +0.1%), driven by the rise of production in information-communication (+1.5% after +0.5%), business services (+1.2% after 0.0%), trade (+0.6% after 0.0%) and transport services (+1.0% after +0.2%).

Household consumption rose more sharply in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.4% after +0.2%). Household purchases of goods were almost stable this quarter (+0.1% after ‑0.5%), driven by food consumption (+0.5% after ‑1.0%) and energy consumption (+0.7% after ‑2.3%), while conversely, spending on transport equipment, particularly new cars, dropped (‑3.5% after +3.0%).

Household consumption of services was up by 0.7% this quarter, at a similar rate to the previous quarter (+0.8%). It was driven by the acceleration in consumption of transport services (+2.1% after +1.6%) and of accommodation and catering services (+1.5% after +0.3%).

Total GFCF rebounded in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.3% after -0.9%), due to a rise in GFCF in manufactured goods (+0.8% after ‑1.1%) and in market services (+0.5% after ‑0.8%). The rebound in investment in market services was fuelled by investment in information and communication, which was back on the rise (+2.2% after ‑0.6%). Conversely, investment in real estate services was still dropping (‑8.6% after ‑5.2%), as was investment in legal, scientific, technical, administrative and support services (‑0.7% after ‑0.8%).

Concerning manufactured products, investment stood up sharply in transport equipment (+1.5% after ‑0.7%) and, more moderately, in capital goods (+0.2% after ‑1.6%) and in the “other manufactured products” (+0.7% after ‑0.8%).

Construction investment was almost stable this quarter (‑0.1% after ‑0.9%).

Foreign trade made a zero contribution to GDP growth in Q1 2024 (0.0 points, after +1.0 point in the previous quarter).

Imports rose slightly this quarter (+0.2% after ‑2.3%). They were driven by imports of manufactured goods (+0.4% after ‑2.8%), especially imports of refined oil (+18.1% after ‑7.7%) and transport equipment (+1.2% after ‑3.5%). Conversely, imports of capital goods continued to decline (-2.1% after -2.7%).

Exports remained dynamic in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.5% after +0.4%). They were fuelled by the rebound of exports of “other manufactured products” (+2.9% after ‑0.3%) and by a sharp rise in exports of agricultural products (+14.9% after +0.2%), while exports of capital goods declined (-2.6% after +0.1%). Exports of services were almost stable (+0.1% after ‑0.8%).

Inventory changes contributed again negatively to GDP growth this quarter: ‑0.2 points, after ‑0.9 points in Q4 2023.

The estimate of GDP growth has not been revised (after rounding) in the fourth quarter of 2023 but has been reviewed upwards by 0.1 points in the third quarter of 2023: it therefore stood at +0.1% in Q3 2023. In detail, the contribution of foreign trade has been revised upwards by 0.2 points in the third quarter and by 0.1 points in the fourth quarter due to revisions in the balance of payments for services. Contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) has been revised downwards by 0.1 points in Q3 2023 and upwards by 0.1 points in Q4 2023. The revised contribution of inventory changes offsets part of these revisions over the two quarters.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated.

The quarterly national accounts will be revised on the next release (31 May 2024), as a result of the integration of the annual accounts (2021 definitive, 2022 semi-definitive and 2023 provisional, as well as all accounts in 2020 base, since 1949), released at the same time. Moreover, the estimation models for the quarterly accounts will be review as every year when the detailed figures for the first quarter are released.