UK CPI Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, a temporary pause in the disinflationary process

UK CPI Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, a temporary pause in the disinflationary process

From fxstreet.com

We expect both headline inflation and core to have rebounded by 0.1pp in January to 4.1% and 5.2%, respectively. But don’t worry. This is just a temporary blip in the disinflation process. Primarily, the increase is driven by a base effect in the services component due to a sharp decline in air fares and a tripling in its weight in January 2023. Along with airfares possibly causing some surprises again this year, cultural services inflation may reverse the upside surprise in December, but we believe this should be offset by stronger restaurant inflation. Relative to the BoE, we see a stronger rebound in services ... (full story)

Unchanged. I think good GBP

The rate cut is eminent in the UK

Core CPI and CPI is unchanged. The rate cut is not possible

I think GBP is fighting it battle , it will drag itself to it own direction.

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