Waller: Good economic arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months that you could lower policy rate

post: *FED'S WALLER: INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT POLICY IS WELL POSITIONED *WALLER: POLICY HELPED RAPID INFLATION IMPROVEMENT IN LAST YEAR post: WALLER: CANNOT NOTE FOR SURE IF FED HAS DONE ENOUGH; DATA OVER NEXT COUPLE MONTHS WILL HOPEFULLY TELL WALLER: 'ENCOURAGED' BY SIGNS OF MODERATING ECONOMIC GROWTH WALLER: INFLATION STILL TOO HIGH, TOO EARLY TO NOTE IF SLOWING WILL BE SUSTAINED WALLER: PREMATURE TO RELY…Waller: Something Appears to Be Giving Last month, I gave a speech entitled "Something's Got to Give."1 That message was prompted by the fact that we were observing strong economic growth and employment data in the third quarter, while simultaneously seeing a clear moderation in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. While this was good news for employment growth, the pace of real economic activity seemed inconsistent with continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goal of 2 percent inflation. It seemed clear to me then that something had to give— for inflation to continue falling to our 2 percent target, the economy needed to slow from its torrid third-quarter pace. If it did not cool off, then it was likely that progress on inflation would stop or even reverse. So, what remained to be seen was whether the economy would cool or inflation would heat up. I am encouraged by what we have learned in the past few weeks—something appears to be giving, and it's the pace of the economy. Data for October indicated an easing in economic activity, and forecasts for the fourth quarter show the kind of moderation that is more in keeping with progress on lowering inflation. In addition, after watching core PCE inflation increase in September from its summer lows, the latest data showed inflation moving in the right direction in October, albeit gradually. While I am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand, inflation is still too high, and it is too early to say whether the slowing we are seeing will be sustained. But I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent. That said, there is still significant uncertainty about the pace of future activity, and so I cannot say for sure whether the FOMC has done enough to achieve price stability. Hopefully, the data we receive over the next couple of months will help answer that question. Let's start by updating the picture on economic activity. The initial estimate was that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a vigorous 4.9 p

post: Fed’s Bowman Favours Rate Hikes If Inflation Progress Stalls - To Closely Watch Data To Assess Appropriate Policy Path - Sees Risk Of Energy Prices Hurting Inflation ImprovementsBowman: Reflections on the Economy and Monetary Policy It is a pleasure to join you this morning in Salt Lake City for the Utah Banker and Business Leader Breakfast.1 I find great value in engaging with and learning from the experiences and perspectives of those who are directly engaged in the economy—businesses and consumers, and those who support economic activity by providing access to financial services through the broader financial system. These experiences help provide context for the economic and financial data that we rely upon for our economic analyses. I look forward to learning about how your businesses—and the clients and communities you serve—are navigating the current economic and financial conditions. Since joining the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System five years ago this week, the U.S. economy has experienced a number of unique economic challenges. In my remarks today, I will include some of my observations on a number of economic developments that our economy has experienced during that time. I will also consider the monetary policy actions taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in response to these developments and conclude by highlighting several uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook and how they affect my views about appropriate monetary policy going forward. Prominent among these uncertainties are whether supply-side improvements will continue to reduce inflationary pressures; the extent to which the demand for goods, services, and labor will come into better balance with supply given the current setting of monetary policy; and the level at which the federal funds rate will be consistent with the FOMC's inflation and maximum-employment goals in the longer run. The Post–Financial Crisis Economy and Monetary Policy Five years ago, monetary policymakers faced a post: Fed's Bowman: 'Quite Possible' Will Need Fed Policy Rate At Higher Level Than Pre-Pandemic To Foster Low, Stable Inflation - Could See Limited Future Gains In Labor Force Participation