North America Goes Back to Losing Rigs

Many thanks for the introduction, Terry. It is a pleasure to be here this evening. Let me also add my thanks to you, Minette. You have been a strong and clear voice for British farming throughout your term as President of the National Farmers’ Union. What a time it has been. Costs have been rising sharply. Trading arrangements and farm support have been changing. Summer droughts have been followed by winter floods. It is no small job to confront all of those challenges. I would like to spend my time this evening talking about food price inflation. To set the scene, I will start by showing a chart with the evolution of overall consumer price inflation over the past five years. Chart 1 shows how inflation (the white line) fell below the Bank’s 2% target in the first year of the pandemic before it started to rise above the target in the second half of 2021, reaching a peak of 11.1% in October 2022. It shows how inflation has since come down significantly again, to 4.6% in the latest data for October published last week. In the shaded area, it shows how we expect it to remain around this level for the remainder of the year. In our forecast, it then continues to fall back towards the 2% target over next year. Last week’s data release was good news. It means that we are on track to bring inflatio post: BOE GOV. BAILEY: IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO BE THINKING ABOUT RATE CUTS. post: <GBP=>: *BOE'S BAILEY: INFLATION RISK FROM FOOD PRICE INFLATION AHEAD *BOE'S BAILEY: MIDEAST EVENTS ADD TO UPSIDE ENERGY PRICE RISKS ? *BOE'S BAILEY: CONCERNED ABOUT SECOND ROUND EFFECTS ON FOOD post: BoE’s Bailey: The Labour Market, Despite Softening Recently, Remains Tight And Wage Inflation Remains Elevated post: BOE GOV. BAILEY: THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE’S LATEST PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT MONETARY POLICY IS LIKELY TO NEED TO BE RESTRICTIVE FOR QUITE SOME TIME YET.