Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 2% to more than a one-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for cooler weather, especially in the northeastern part of the U.S. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 5.4 cents, or 2%, at $2.61 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:49 a.m. EDT (13:49 GMT), its lowest level since Aug. 7. The contract fell nearly 5% on Tuesday. Although the weather in the lower 48 states is forecast to remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 31, it will be significantly milder during that period and heading into September than recently, especially in the heavily populated Northeast region. That is pulling back expectations for any late-season power sector demand for cooling, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 104.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.6 bcfd next week. These numbers were higher from Tuesday's forecast. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states was 101.8 bcfd so far in August, matching the reading in July, and not far from a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.4 bcfd so far in August, mainly due to reductions at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu facility in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Market participants were keeping a close watch on any updates on possible strikes at Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities that would lead to supply disruptions. Gas prices in Europe were down 3.45 euros at 37.40 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1421 GMT. Woodside Energy said "positive progress" was being made on wage disputes at Australia's largest LNG facility even as a union alliance said key differences remained ahead of further talks next Wednesday. The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023 - ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar - as higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 11 Aug 4 Aug 11 average Forecast Actual Aug 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 34 29 21 41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,064 3,030 2,516 2,766 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.8% 11.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.61 2.66 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.17 12.73 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) -- 14.73 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 3 2 1 5 6 U.S. GFS CDDs 224 228 200 186 178 U.S. GFS TDDs 227 230 201 191 184 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week Five-Year Week Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.9 101.5 101.7 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.1 7.1 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 109.2 108.6 108.9 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.9 6.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.3 12.5 12.8 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 47.5 49.1 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 82.6 84.2 86.0 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.2 104.9 106.6 92.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Jul 28 Jul 21 Wind 7 7 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 6 5 5 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 45 45 45 46 Coal 19 19 20 20 19 Nuclear 17 17 17 16 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.65 2.74 Transco Z6 New York 1.44 1.46 PG&E Citygate 6.26 6.36 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.37 1.28 Chicago Citygate 2.46 2.51 Algonquin Citygate 1.52 1.56 SoCal Citygate 8.17 7.22 Waha Hub 2.33 2.51 AECO 2.70 2.77 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 31.00 27.75 PJM West 34.50 46.25 Ercot North 360.75 750.00 Mid C 117.75 350.00 Palo Verde 332.00 225.00 SP-15 342.50 234.75 (Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)