Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Brent and WTI Crude oil in uptrends testing key resistance levels. A break above could fuel a 5% rally higher. Medium-term falling trendlines broken
Brent Crude oil is testing the resistance at around 83. A close above could fuel another move higher towards 87-88.
However, a few days of range trading between 78 and 83 could be seen before next attempt to break higher.
To reverse the bullish picture a close below 78.19 is needed.
From the weekly chart Brent has broken above its upper medium-term falling trendline. The declining 55 weekly Moving Average will provide some resistance but no strong resistance until around 87-88.
WTI is testing resistance at around 79.18. A close above is likely to send WTI to test resistance at around 83.50.
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 73.84 .
Medium-term (weekly chart) WTI has closed above upper falling trendline and seems on course to test the 83.50 resistance. The declining 55 Moving Average will provide some resistance, however.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.