- WTI extends previous day’s pullback from multi-week high, holds lower grounds of late.
- Clear downside break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, bearish MACD signals favor Oil sellers.
- Convergence of 50-SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement puts a floor under the Oil price.
- Recovery needs validation from $79.40 to convince buyers.
WTI crude oil remains on the back foot at around $74.75 during Monday’s Asian session, extending the previous day’s U-turn from an 11-week high.
That said, the black gold reversed from the multi-week top the previous day amid an overbought RSI (14) line. The pullback move dragged the quote below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of April-May downside and convinced the energy sellers to keep the reins. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals.
However, the near 50.0 levels of the RSI (14) line and convergence of the 50-SMA, as well as the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, close to $73.90 by the press time, can restrict further downside of the energy benchmark.
In a case where the WTI bears dominate past $73.90, an ascending support line from late June, close to $73.50 at the latest, will be the last defense of the Oil buyers.
On the contrary, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the latest peak, respectively near $76.10 and $77.20, limit the short-term upside of the WTI price.
Following that, a horizontal area comprising levels marked since April 03, near $79.05-40, appears a tough nut to crack for the Oil buyers to cross before retaking control.
Overall, WTI crude oil is likely to witness further downside but the room towards the south appears limited.
WTI: Four-hour chart
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Trend: Further weakness expected
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