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To hike or not to hike? Bank of England’s great dilemma
On May 11, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to raise its key interest rate for the 12th time in a row, bringing it to 4.5%. At its latest meeting, the BoE stated that it would stay the course to ensure that inflation returned to 2%, and did not rule out further hikes if there are signs of persistent inflation. The latest figures show a slowdown in headline inflation, from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April, but core inflation reached its highest level in 30 years. The UK, which is often considered as a bridge between the United States (US) and Europe, now finds itself between the two’s different hiking cycles. The US ... (full story)
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Texas factory activity remained relatively flat in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched down from 0.9 to -1.3, with the near-zero reading suggestive of little change in output from last month. Other measures of manufacturing activity showed declines in May. The new orders index has now been in negative territory for a year and pushed down further from -9.6 to -16.1. The growth rate of orders index also fell, declining 10 points to -20.7, its lowest value since mid-2020. The capacity utilization index moved down from 3.9 to -4.9, while the shipments index was unchanged at -3.0. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in May. The general business activity index dropped six points to -29.1, its lowest reading in three years. The company outlook index pushed down seven points to -22.3, also a three-year low. The outlook uncertainty index retreated to 13.4, a reading below average. Labor market measures suggest continued employment growth but flat work hours. The employment index ticked up two points to 9.6, slightly above its average reading. Twenty-three percent of firms noted net hiring, while 13 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index inched up to -0.9. Price pressures dropped further below normal levels, and wage pressures also eased but remained elevated. The raw materials prices index fell six points to 13.8, further below its average reading of 27.8. The finished goods prices index fell eight points to 0.4, with the near-zero reading suggestive of flat selling prices. The wages and benefits index declined 13 points to 25.0, a reading now only slightly above its average of 21.0. Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity were mixed in May. The future production index rebounded from 3.0 to 12.0, while the future general business activity index remained negative, edging up to - post at 10:36am: Dallas Fed: "We are seeing all indications of a continued slide in demand (three quarters now)." "Business is slowing down. That is certain" "There is nothing encouraging on the horizon. The war on fossil fuels and higher interest rates continue to make things worse."
post at 10:24am: ECB'S CENTENO DOESN'T SEE RISKS OF MONETARY POLICY OVERSHOOTING post at 9:58am: <EUR=>:*ECB'S CENTENO: SPAIN CPI READING SHOWS EUROPE INFLATION EASING post at 9:58am: *ECB'S CENTENO: REVERSAL OF SUPPLY SHOCK SHOULD SLOW INFLATION
Currency markets were choppy on Tuesday as the dollar hit a 10-week high against peers and a six-month top versus the yen before Japanese officials gave their currency a nudge, as ...
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EURUSD is seeing some relief today, breaking above a 4-hour descending channel I discussed in Saturday’s Weekly Forex Forecast. It isn’t surprising, given how aggressive the ...
The euro area’s markets could see “stressed liquidity” due to heightened economic uncertainty, monetary policy normalization and tighter financial conditions, according to the ...
post at 1:13pm: Fed’s Barkin: Looking For Signs That Demand Is Falling post at 1:14pm: RICHMOND FED'S BARKINQ&A/NABE: REPEATS, NEED TO BRING DEMAND DOWN AND ITS 'PLAUSIBLE STORY' THAT RATE HIKES, OTHER FACTORS, HAVE SOFTENED DEMAND; WAITING TO SEE DATA THAT CONFIRMS THAT ' #Barkin #FederalReserve post at 1:15pm: FED'S BARKIN: IT IS HARD TO COUNT ON RATE HIKES TO DO ALL WORK ON INFLATION. post at 1:17pm: FED'S BARKIN: SOME PARTS OF THE ECONOMY APPEAR TO BE COOLING, OTHERS REMAIN VIBRANT. post at 1:21pm: FED'S BARKIN: THERE IS MORE WILLINGNESS AMONG BUSINESSES TO TRY TO INCREASE PRICES, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DEMAND FALLS.
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- Posted: May 30, 2023 11:10am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 1,921