Analyzing Natural Gas: Breakout Potential and Price Targets

tweet at 4:12pm: *RBNZ Gov Orr: Rates Are Restrictive, Well Above Neutral tweet at 4:13pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION ARE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. tweet at 4:14pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: WE CAN CHANGE ASSESSMENT IF NEEDED AS NEW DATA EMERGES. tweet at 4:27pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: ALWAYS RETAIN POLICY OPTIONALITY.

tweet at 6:37pm: Fitch Places United States’ ‘AAA’ on Rating Watch Negative tweet at 6:37pm: Fitch: US’ ‘AAA’ Rating Watch Negative Reflects Increased Political Partisanship That is Hindering Resolution to Raise or Suspend Debt Limit tweet at 6:39pm: Fitch: Still expecting a resolution to debt limit before x-date, higher risks that debt limit won't be raised/suspended. Brinkmanship among factors that signal downside risks -BBG tweet at 6:40pm: Fitch: Would Expect US Country Ceiling to Remain at ‘AAA’ Even in Scenario of a Debt DefaultFitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt). Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the x-date. However, we believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the x-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations. The brinkmanship over the debt ceiling, failure of the U.S. authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden signal downside risks to U.S. creditworthiness. Debt Limit Reached: The U.S. reached its $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, 2023, and the Treasury began taking extraordinary measures in order to avoid breaching the ceiling. The Treasury has stated that these extraordinary measures could be exhausted as early as June 1, 2023. The cash balance of the Treasury reached USD76.5 billion as of May 23 and sizeable payments are due June 1-2, meaning that the x-date could arrive as the Treasury indicated and before an agreement is reached or finalized with votes in the House and Senate. X-Date Approaching: The failure to reach a deal to raise or suspend the debt limit by the x-date would be a negative signal of the broader governance and willingness of the U.S. to honor its obligations in a timely fashion, which would be unlikely to be consistent with a 'AAA' rating, in Fitch's view. Prioritization of debt securities over other due payments after the x-date would avoid a default. Similarly, avoiding default by non-conventional means such as minting a trillion-dollar coin or invoking the 14th amendment is unlikely to be consistent with a 'AAA' rating and could also be subject to legal challenges.