Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher Despite Rise in Production

Natural gas prices rebounded for a second straight session after moving into the red early, ahead of the EIA inventory report. Expectations are for a 109 Bcf build in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the United States for the next 8-14 days. There 1-storm currently in the Atlantic near the Caribbean that has a small chance of each becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Production moved higher in Q3.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher bouncing at an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 5.29. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.68. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. Short-term momentum is also negative as the fast stochastic generated a sell signal.

The EIA estimates that dry natural gas production averaged 93.3 Bcf per day in the United States during the third quarter of 2021, up from 91.6 Bcf per day in the first half of 2021. Production in the forecast rises to an average of 94.0 Bcf per day during the winter.