Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices where nearly unchanged on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 98 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal during the next two weeks, according to NOAA. There are no tropical cyclones expected to form in the Atlantic during the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices consolidated, forming an inside day with resistance seen near the May highs at 3.2. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.06. Short-term momentum whipsawed and moved higher as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is flat but turning positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

U.S. Natural gas production continues to increase.

According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell slightly by 0.4% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.2% compared with the previous report week to 92.6 Bcf per day, the highest weekly average since the second week of April 2020. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 13.5% from last week.