Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices consolidated on Thursday, forming an inside day which is a sign of indecision. This movement followed an inline report from the Department of energy which showed that natural gas inventories rose by 20 Bcf. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to become cooler than normal for most mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved sideways, forming an inside day as the high was lower than the prior days high and the low was higher than the prior days low. Prices continue to create a bear flag continuation pattern. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Support is seen near the March lows at 2.35. Momentum is flat. The fast stochastic is printing near the signal line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram has a flat trajectory which points to additional consolidation.

Inventories Rise In Line with Expectations

Natural gas in storage was 1,784 Bcf as of Friday, April 2, 2021, according to the EIA. This rise in stockpiles represents a net increase of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 20 bcf build, according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 235 Bcf less than last year at this time and 24 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,808 Bcf. At 1,784 Bcf, the total working gas is within the five-year historical range.