Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Quiet Into the Weekend

Natural gas markets continue to chop around between the 200 day EMA on the bottom and the 50 day EMA on the top, as we hang on to the $2.60 region. That being said, there is a significant uptrend line just underneath that could offer support right along with the 200 day EMA, so if we were to break below that I think that could kick off the massive selling. You could even go so far as to call this a bearish flag, but that is probably using a little bit of artistic license to get there.

NATGAS Video 05.04.21

If we were to break above the 50 day EMA it could open up a move towards the $2.75, $2.85, and then possibly even $3.00. I am looking to fade anything that gets near those levels and forms a long way to the upside. Temperatures have dipped in the United States for the short term, but let us face it, we are getting very close to warmer temperatures on a consistent basis, and that spells negativity for a market that is oversupplied to begin with. I am simply waiting for an opportunity to fade rallies or to sell the breakdown when it occurs. The idea of buying natural gas is something that I have no interest in doing, although I recognize there can be the occasional buying opportunity based upon the weather report for the next week or so. Those are short-term moves; the longer-term moves are most certainly going to be to the downside between now and fall. With that, it is a little bit of patience that will be needed to profit from this market.

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