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  #48761  
Old Nov 26, 2009 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspeakman View Post
Missed that one - staring me in the face - zooming out see a break out from a wedge? (Newbie still learning)

Thanks

JS
Hey JS

Yeah this was a pretty clean easy breakout of a very tight wedge. Many of us played a break or a sell near the 150 area. This is how I played it. You could have a fairly tight stop like Rzczefx did as well. He held his much more long. I took profit way earlier


Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.


Take care all
Mike
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  #48761  
Old Nov 26, 2009 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspeakman View Post
Missed that one - staring me in the face - zooming out see a break out from a wedge? (Newbie still learning)

Thanks

JS
Hey JS

Yeah this was a pretty clean easy breakout of a very tight wedge. Many of us played a break or a sell near the 150 area. This is how I played it. You could have a fairly tight stop like Rzczefx did as well. He held his much more long. I took profit way earlier


Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.


Take care all
Mike
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  #48787  
Old Nov 27, 2009 3:19am
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
here it's a question to everyone who can help and they know about it.

Can somebody explain markets behavior from the last days, it's seems that on all the majors there was extreme moves,with some high momentum.

it's this because of the holidays!!

I have read an article that it's saying that on the last years, on thanksgiving the range on all the markets where bellow 100 pips.

it will be really nice if someone can explain this.

thanks and wish you the best!
The thing about holiday markets are they are more illiquid. That is just a fact b/c you have less participants. So that can mean nothing happens b/c no one wants to get involved, or it means less money can push the markets around. So the latter occured and when the train got a moving it kept on moving

Mike
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  #48787  
Old Nov 27, 2009 3:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
here it's a question to everyone who can help and they know about it.

Can somebody explain markets behavior from the last days, it's seems that on all the majors there was extreme moves,with some high momentum.

it's this because of the holidays!!

I have read an article that it's saying that on the last years, on thanksgiving the range on all the markets where bellow 100 pips.

it will be really nice if someone can explain this.

thanks and wish you the best!
The thing about holiday markets are they are more illiquid. That is just a fact b/c you have less participants. So that can mean nothing happens b/c no one wants to get involved, or it means less money can push the markets around. So the latter occured and when the train got a moving it kept on moving

Mike
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  #48820  
Old Nov 27, 2009 12:38pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
There's more to this longer time frames gig than meets the eye.

The great aspect about trading those longer time frames is instilling that ability to wait for the best trades and, once in one, to wait out a trades various "noise" phases . If you can do that (i.e not checking back every hour on a daily or weekly trade), you've developed a great skill that will work with ALL time frames later on. If you need to watch certain levels in between, then set alerts.

That ability to wait for the correct opportunities is a good one to have.
bingo

Most trade the lower timeframes and have poor decision making abilities b/c they haven't been able to grasp the material to make those decisions faster. The daily instills a lot of qualities that will help you on the lower timeframes if one ever decides to venture that way. The discipline it takes to just be able to close your charts down everyday cause there are no great trades will take you much further on that quality alone then most will ever get too.

Still recovering from a food hangover

Mike
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  #48821  
Old Nov 27, 2009 12:40pm
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Originally Posted by Area51 View Post
Hi Mike.

That makes sense. But from there what happens? Is the market now out of kilter from where it would normally have been. Will the preceding direction, sentiment return.
I know you cannot answer that for sure but I guess that if the recent moves are aberrations would it be reasonable to expect some form of normality to return?

I imagine the answer is really to wait and see. As you have pointed out in the past, there is no rush!

A51
Hey A

I think this is all part of a normal market as every year we have the same holidays etc. We see this happen around new years/xmas etc. The market is always going to do what it wants. PA still worked more then fine even in these illiquid markets the last few days. Monday will be back to business and traders will resume what they look for(whatever that may be) just as they did before turkey day. We don't have to do anything but do the same as well

Mike
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  #48820  
Old Nov 27, 2009 12:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
There's more to this longer time frames gig than meets the eye.

The great aspect about trading those longer time frames is instilling that ability to wait for the best trades and, once in one, to wait out a trades various "noise" phases . If you can do that (i.e not checking back every hour on a daily or weekly trade), you've developed a great skill that will work with ALL time frames later on. If you need to watch certain levels in between, then set alerts.

That ability to wait for the correct opportunities is a good one to have.
bingo

Most trade the lower timeframes and have poor decision making abilities b/c they haven't been able to grasp the material to make those decisions faster. The daily instills a lot of qualities that will help you on the lower timeframes if one ever decides to venture that way. The discipline it takes to just be able to close your charts down everyday cause there are no great trades will take you much further on that quality alone then most will ever get too.

Still recovering from a food hangover

Mike
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  #48821  
Old Nov 27, 2009 12:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Area51 View Post
Hi Mike.

That makes sense. But from there what happens? Is the market now out of kilter from where it would normally have been. Will the preceding direction, sentiment return.
I know you cannot answer that for sure but I guess that if the recent moves are aberrations would it be reasonable to expect some form of normality to return?

I imagine the answer is really to wait and see. As you have pointed out in the past, there is no rush!

A51
Hey A

I think this is all part of a normal market as every year we have the same holidays etc. We see this happen around new years/xmas etc. The market is always going to do what it wants. PA still worked more then fine even in these illiquid markets the last few days. Monday will be back to business and traders will resume what they look for(whatever that may be) just as they did before turkey day. We don't have to do anything but do the same as well

Mike
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  #48827  
Old Nov 27, 2009 4:04pm
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Originally Posted by R Richards View Post
Can you folks tell me if i am looking at this chart right. I am on the daily chart on the cable. It has a nice long pin bar forming. It has retraced to the 50% fib, and the 1.6300 round number. This appears to ba a fairly solid support. This also looks like a swing low. It would look to me to be an A+ trade as i understand you folks.
Hey Richard

Yeah just be careful since this isn't really a great swing low. It is more minor swing low. Also what is worrying me about a lot of these bars that they might just barely close within the prior bar at the very low of it. That is always a caution sign for me to at least if I do play one to play it tight.

I just marked up a chart to show visually the difference of the swing points.

Best
Mike
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  #48827  
Old Nov 27, 2009 4:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R Richards View Post
Can you folks tell me if i am looking at this chart right. I am on the daily chart on the cable. It has a nice long pin bar forming. It has retraced to the 50% fib, and the 1.6300 round number. This appears to ba a fairly solid support. This also looks like a swing low. It would look to me to be an A+ trade as i understand you folks.
Hey Richard

Yeah just be careful since this isn't really a great swing low. It is more minor swing low. Also what is worrying me about a lot of these bars that they might just barely close within the prior bar at the very low of it. That is always a caution sign for me to at least if I do play one to play it tight.

I just marked up a chart to show visually the difference of the swing points.

Best
Mike
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  #48846  
Old Nov 29, 2009 1:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
one more....

Yes breakout and pullbacks are one of my bread and butter. It is simplistic yet encompasses everything we do here.




Mike
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  #48858  
Old Nov 29, 2009 12:46pm
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Hey C

I agree with you that the only one even worth looking at would be usd/jpy(which I am still on the fence about thus not trading). Also just to clarify technically speaking the e/u is a pin. As long as the open and close are within the prior bar then it is a pin like that. But again as you said the locations are horrible.

This was my response to some of these xxx/jpy pairs in the pf

This is a follow up to SLs Post and Aarons. I really don't like any of the xxx/jpy bars. They all closed extremely weak to me. Yes the usd/jpy had the best close of them all. I just don't like the way the bars have that weak close. Being they all occurred on a holiday week and on a friday has me a bit uneasy just like SL and Tia. If we had say the 85 round number running through the upper portion of the bar that would give me a better way to play it without having the need to have a potential full bar loss as I could cut out earlier. But if it breaks the high and reverses it would be hard to find a point to just cut out. I am going to pass on these and simply watch the lower timeframes on the jpy pairs. For example 145 on the gbp/jpy is not far off. Great spot to watch for a long or short.

Best
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Concept View Post
Well I have noticed a lot of PB's on Friday and all that jazz. I am going to go through each one of the ones that I see and weed out the good from the bad.

EU: This from what I have been reading is not even a PB at all, because the right eye didn't close inside the left eye. Would not even think of trading this just because of the horrible location as well.

USDCHF: Pretty much the same thing going on here as the EU. Only difference here is that the bar closed right on a Support line. Is it going to hold? I don't know. What I do know is that I...
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  #48865  
Old Nov 29, 2009 1:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I have 2 questions:

Is the pinbar on the daily GBP CHF a valid pinbar?
It seems to satsisfy criteria of pinbar and is on FIB retracement(I think)

Secondly:

I'ved tried putting a buy stop above the bar and each time (on FXPro, metatrader 4) it is telling me market is closed so cannot be executed.

Can someone be kind enough to explain how to place an order when market is closed?

Thank You in Advance
Hey Peter

Technically yes it is valid, but look how small the nose is and barely protruding away from the low of the prior bar. This would be a less then stellar bar. Also try zooming your charts out a bit . When we are that zoomed in things look more significant then they are.

As for placing an order. If the market is closed then you won't be able to on an mt4 broker or depending on your brokers rules. You must wait till the market opens and the broker resumes trading.

Best
Mike
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  #48846  
Old Nov 29, 2009 1:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
one more....

Yes breakout and pullbacks are one of my bread and butter. It is simplistic yet encompasses everything we do here.




Mike
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  #48858  
Old Nov 29, 2009 12:46pm
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Hey C

I agree with you that the only one even worth looking at would be usd/jpy(which I am still on the fence about thus not trading). Also just to clarify technically speaking the e/u is a pin. As long as the open and close are within the prior bar then it is a pin like that. But again as you said the locations are horrible.

This was my response to some of these xxx/jpy pairs in the pf

This is a follow up to SLs Post and Aarons. I really don't like any of the xxx/jpy bars. They all closed extremely weak to me. Yes the usd/jpy had the best close of them all. I just don't like the way the bars have that weak close. Being they all occurred on a holiday week and on a friday has me a bit uneasy just like SL and Tia. If we had say the 85 round number running through the upper portion of the bar that would give me a better way to play it without having the need to have a potential full bar loss as I could cut out earlier. But if it breaks the high and reverses it would be hard to find a point to just cut out. I am going to pass on these and simply watch the lower timeframes on the jpy pairs. For example 145 on the gbp/jpy is not far off. Great spot to watch for a long or short.

Best
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Concept View Post
Well I have noticed a lot of PB's on Friday and all that jazz. I am going to go through each one of the ones that I see and weed out the good from the bad.

EU: This from what I have been reading is not even a PB at all, because the right eye didn't close inside the left eye. Would not even think of trading this just because of the horrible location as well.

USDCHF: Pretty much the same thing going on here as the EU. Only difference here is that the bar closed right on a Support line. Is it going to hold? I don't know. What I do know is that I...
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  #48865  
Old Nov 29, 2009 1:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I have 2 questions:

Is the pinbar on the daily GBP CHF a valid pinbar?
It seems to satsisfy criteria of pinbar and is on FIB retracement(I think)

Secondly:

I'ved tried putting a buy stop above the bar and each time (on FXPro, metatrader 4) it is telling me market is closed so cannot be executed.

Can someone be kind enough to explain how to place an order when market is closed?

Thank You in Advance
Hey Peter

Technically yes it is valid, but look how small the nose is and barely protruding away from the low of the prior bar. This would be a less then stellar bar. Also try zooming your charts out a bit . When we are that zoomed in things look more significant then they are.

As for placing an order. If the market is closed then you won't be able to on an mt4 broker or depending on your brokers rules. You must wait till the market opens and the broker resumes trading.

Best
Mike
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  #48897  
Old Nov 30, 2009 2:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Normally, you want to trade a 2-bar pattern when a third bar completes the setup. You get your two matching lows with a higher close, then enter when the next bar breaks it.

You are asking whether it is okay to trade using just one bar and what you think 'might' happen, rather than 3 confirmed moves.

...
Joe knows

Yeah I all too often see new traders get excited that a pinbar is forming. Things can change so fast. If you notice at the end of an hour money comes in and out which can change those bars. ALWAYS wait for the close, it will save your butt all too often


Mike
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  #48897  
Old Nov 30, 2009 2:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Normally, you want to trade a 2-bar pattern when a third bar completes the setup. You get your two matching lows with a higher close, then enter when the next bar breaks it.

You are asking whether it is okay to trade using just one bar and what you think 'might' happen, rather than 3 confirmed moves.

...
Joe knows

Yeah I all too often see new traders get excited that a pinbar is forming. Things can change so fast. If you notice at the end of an hour money comes in and out which can change those bars. ALWAYS wait for the close, it will save your butt all too often


Mike
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  #48932  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
sighting....
ahh i can watch Dan grow as a trader before my eyes

This is what traders do. They have trade plans and then they trade it. They have things that work and they repeat it. They don't just sit down see a bar and buy and sell with not a clue what to do next. This is the beauty with this stuff. Is that you never quite have it licked but you always seem to get just a bit better as time goes by

Mike
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  #48933  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:39pm
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Awesome and this is what James should be so proud of what he started here. Passing the legacy on!

Awesome man, keep it up and keep us updated.

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wamo View Post
I first started reading this thread in October. After a good bit of reading I decided to put the J16 method to the test and began my three-month trial starting November 1. Today marks the end of the first month, and the results are staggering for me.

I have been trading for the past fifteen years (mostly stocks and stock options) without ever having much success or consistency. I believe my biggest problems were psychology, risk management and lack of a trading plan - all BIG problems most traders have. I found that following the James16 method...
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  #48939  
Old Nov 30, 2009 2:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Hi All,

I would like to start plotting price pivots.
Any advice on their use and the practicalties of setting them up?

Mant Thanks

P
Hey P

Try these for starters

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084


Best
Mike
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  #48947  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Mike,

Just wanted to ask. When one is starting off like me its very easy to get overwhelmed by the amount of info that one needs to absorb and can easily end up wondering aimlessly in circles.

Do you suggest a sequence of skills or stages that must be mastered before going onto the next stage?

Is there something I can start with now so as to make my time in the PF more profitable?

P
Hey Peter

I always say start with a piece at a time. Start with learning to read the bars. Then learning to read a great bar from a decent bar. Then learn to identify support and resistance. Start practicing drawing PPZs. Usually I will say to people start with just pinbars at A+ swing highs and lows nothing else. Then slowly add Outside bars. Then add other things as you get comfortable. Most people try to do too much at once. It is a slow and steady race and where you will be in 3-4 months from now you can't even imagine from where you are at now. Then 3-4 months after that etc. A good summary is posted here by Josh

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Good for reference points and the main concepts. Find a concept and then keep studying as much as you have to.

Hope that helps
mike
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  #48948  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Do you set your stop loss as far away as I did using support and resitance. I know there isnt a science to this I just am curious how people positions size and set the SLs for Gaps knowing that they almost alwasy close. Any help is appreciated. THAnks!

Attachment 370442
I personally use an equity stop. That is a fixed % amount I am willing to lose. It isn't a hard stop. Depends on how the pair is moving and how I want to scale in. Usually the stop is 3% range, but rarely do I get to that point. Often I end up scaling in and pulling profit much sooner. Bigger volatility pairs I allow for more room and less volatility pairs I scale in quicker. It is a lot of feel for me personally on gap plays

Best
Mike
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  #48949  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
There's plenty of programmes, not sure which ones are the right ones for James system.

Any help welcome+++
Try this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=pivot+points

Mike
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  #48932  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
sighting....
ahh i can watch Dan grow as a trader before my eyes

This is what traders do. They have trade plans and then they trade it. They have things that work and they repeat it. They don't just sit down see a bar and buy and sell with not a clue what to do next. This is the beauty with this stuff. Is that you never quite have it licked but you always seem to get just a bit better as time goes by

Mike
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  #48933  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:39pm
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Awesome and this is what James should be so proud of what he started here. Passing the legacy on!

Awesome man, keep it up and keep us updated.

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wamo View Post
I first started reading this thread in October. After a good bit of reading I decided to put the J16 method to the test and began my three-month trial starting November 1. Today marks the end of the first month, and the results are staggering for me.

I have been trading for the past fifteen years (mostly stocks and stock options) without ever having much success or consistency. I believe my biggest problems were psychology, risk management and lack of a trading plan - all BIG problems most traders have. I found that following the James16 method...
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  #48939  
Old Nov 30, 2009 2:19pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Hi All,

I would like to start plotting price pivots.
Any advice on their use and the practicalties of setting them up?

Mant Thanks

P
Hey P

Try these for starters

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084


Best
Mike
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  #48947  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Mike,

Just wanted to ask. When one is starting off like me its very easy to get overwhelmed by the amount of info that one needs to absorb and can easily end up wondering aimlessly in circles.

Do you suggest a sequence of skills or stages that must be mastered before going onto the next stage?

Is there something I can start with now so as to make my time in the PF more profitable?

P
Hey Peter

I always say start with a piece at a time. Start with learning to read the bars. Then learning to read a great bar from a decent bar. Then learn to identify support and resistance. Start practicing drawing PPZs. Usually I will say to people start with just pinbars at A+ swing highs and lows nothing else. Then slowly add Outside bars. Then add other things as you get comfortable. Most people try to do too much at once. It is a slow and steady race and where you will be in 3-4 months from now you can't even imagine from where you are at now. Then 3-4 months after that etc. A good summary is posted here by Josh

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Good for reference points and the main concepts. Find a concept and then keep studying as much as you have to.

Hope that helps
mike
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  #48948  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Do you set your stop loss as far away as I did using support and resitance. I know there isnt a science to this I just am curious how people positions size and set the SLs for Gaps knowing that they almost alwasy close. Any help is appreciated. THAnks!

Attachment 370442
I personally use an equity stop. That is a fixed % amount I am willing to lose. It isn't a hard stop. Depends on how the pair is moving and how I want to scale in. Usually the stop is 3% range, but rarely do I get to that point. Often I end up scaling in and pulling profit much sooner. Bigger volatility pairs I allow for more room and less volatility pairs I scale in quicker. It is a lot of feel for me personally on gap plays

Best
Mike
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  #48949  
Old Nov 30, 2009 3:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
There's plenty of programmes, not sure which ones are the right ones for James system.

Any help welcome+++
Try this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=pivot+points

Mike
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  #49014  
Old Dec 1, 2009 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by countmybones View Post
Hi guys, I am starting to demo based on what I read on this thread. I spotted this pin bar on the monthly NZDUSD, which happened two months ago. Looks like it happend during an uptrend and there are some empty space on the left. Could it be a good long term short? Thanks.

Hey Count

It could be a potential sign of weakness finally showing up. We have that first pin that barely triggered, and then that second semi looking pin. This could be a sign that we are finally going to get some kind of retrace here.

Best
Mike
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  #49017  
Old Dec 1, 2009 1:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ekling View Post
Im watching this pair as it is creating a DHLC at some resistance. I know the bar have not closed yet but IF it do close as a DHLC would it be considered an ok trade?

This is what i see:

- Nice resistance just above with tons of bar lows
- Downtrend
- Below huge round number 1.0000
- Pair is on its way to ATL (400 pips down)
- Potentional DHLC (if it close when its looking as it do right now)
- Few trouble areas before ATL
- Bearish strenght because of friday pinbar

What do you guys say? Mike?
Hey EK

While I do believe 1.0 is a great level to be looking for trades I would be careful here. Firstly you are trading right into that first low. Now a lot of time price retests that area before a bounce so these trades work out. But a DBHLC would not be strong enough to do this for me. I would like to see a much large BEOB engulfing a wider range to trade this area as a continuation. One such occurred on the Eur/USD which I missed(MBT feed). It was nearly a similar situation but with a much better trigger(consistracy pointed this one out I missed).

Remember we normally want these bars at swing highs. I do trade these as continuations as part of my intraday, but as many will tell you that I am very ultra picky about doing so and there is a lot of criteria that has to meet. This is b/c of the tricky spot it can often put you in.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #49014  
Old Dec 1, 2009 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by countmybones View Post
Hi guys, I am starting to demo based on what I read on this thread. I spotted this pin bar on the monthly NZDUSD, which happened two months ago. Looks like it happend during an uptrend and there are some empty space on the left. Could it be a good long term short? Thanks.

Hey Count

It could be a potential sign of weakness finally showing up. We have that first pin that barely triggered, and then that second semi looking pin. This could be a sign that we are finally going to get some kind of retrace here.

Best
Mike
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  #49017  
Old Dec 1, 2009 1:31pm
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Originally Posted by ekling View Post
Im watching this pair as it is creating a DHLC at some resistance. I know the bar have not closed yet but IF it do close as a DHLC would it be considered an ok trade?

This is what i see:

- Nice resistance just above with tons of bar lows
- Downtrend
- Below huge round number 1.0000
- Pair is on its way to ATL (400 pips down)
- Potentional DHLC (if it close when its looking as it do right now)
- Few trouble areas before ATL
- Bearish strenght because of friday pinbar

What do you guys say? Mike?
Hey EK

While I do believe 1.0 is a great level to be looking for trades I would be careful here. Firstly you are trading right into that first low. Now a lot of time price retests that area before a bounce so these trades work out. But a DBHLC would not be strong enough to do this for me. I would like to see a much large BEOB engulfing a wider range to trade this area as a continuation. One such occurred on the Eur/USD which I missed(MBT feed). It was nearly a similar situation but with a much better trigger(consistracy pointed this one out I missed).

Remember we normally want these bars at swing highs. I do trade these as continuations as part of my intraday, but as many will tell you that I am very ultra picky about doing so and there is a lot of criteria that has to meet. This is b/c of the tricky spot it can often put you in.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #49154  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:46pm
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
I'm trying to figure out why the EURCAD 4H PB failed. Fortunately I had my sell order under the round number and it never triggered, but here's what I saw on the 4H chart:

1) diverge on the rsi
2) fib confuence
3) nice looking shape on the fib
4) with the trend on the daily

HOWEVER, I also saw

1) above a round number (1.5800) / strong support
2) against a a decent looking counter PB on the daily chart resting on the EMA.

My inclination is that as expected, the daily was more powerful (as that PB broke exactly as it should have)

Comments?
Hey Frank

This one technically never triggered the low. Remember a bar is not valid until it breaks the low. But with that said, look at how small t his bar looks in relation to the bars around it. On the h4 timeframe does this bar really stand out to you as having some serious power of sellers behind it? Remember we have to think about why these bars should work. Size is one easy way to visually tell us a story.

Best
Mike
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  #49155  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:53pm
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Originally Posted by countmybones View Post
Hi Mike, thanks for taking your time to reply. When you said the first pin that barely triggered, did you mean that the price did not drop significantly after the pin? Perhaps something like this first picture? Besides that, do you mind to explain what you meant by a "semi looking pin"? It looks like a pin to me, with long nose and small body.

Looking at the weekly chart, I think the first two blue boxes can be considered as one bearish outer bar? While the third is a beob.

Thanks.
Hey CMB

Yes after that first pin formed, price just barely triggered the low. A fast hard break is always a better sign of strength of course. The second bar is not technically a pin as it has a lower low then the previous bar and the nose does not stick above the high. This is only a bar that has a pin'esque shape, not actually a pin. But again visually show some weakness with the prior bar as well.

As for the second chart. The third blue box is a beob that is correct. The other 2 boxes. If you mean you combine all the bars from the first bar in box 1 to the last bar in box 2 to make a BEOB then yes, but that is stretching it for me.

Best
Mike
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  #49157  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:58pm
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Hey Perch

After you have a trade plan and know what you are looking for scanning your charts for setup takes very little time.

For example if you are on the daily charts, you would check your charts once a day at the daily close looking for the things one follows in their method and shut them down. It takes me roughly 5-10 mins to go through all my charts once a day. Of course the more new the longer it usually takes, but this is just to give you an idea. One doesn't need to overly study a chart for 4 hours a day, usually that is trying to find reasons to trade instead of letting the trades come to you.

If you can't check your charts once a day everyday usually it is best to go up a timeframe and trade only the weekly. I think it would greatly effect your variance in a poor way to check the daily only 3/5 days a week. Not that it is wrong. But if time is a factor hoping up a timeframe is always a good idea. This would mean you would only need to check your charts once a week on the weekly. And yes if you are not at your computer when the bar triggers one just simply puts a buy or sell stop(limit) at the areas they are looking to trade. Example, a weekly pin shows up to go short. You place a sell stop below the bar and then let it do its thing. Of course then you have to decide what style of trade mgmt is right for you. Some people do set and forgets. More like to manage their trades a bit more hands on, but that again comes down to the trader.

As for profitable EA. Of course their are , but I think you are wasting your time this early on. I would save that for down the road if that is something you want to pursue. You ahve a better chance at writing a profitable EA with a much better understanding of the market. Most people run those crappy backtest MT4 things and curve fit their systems and then get creamed. An EA should still be exploiting an edge.

Hope this helps
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by perch View Post
Sorry if this is just a basic question - but I am struggling at the moment.

How much time (in hours or specify otherwise) should a beginner put in studying charts?

I find at best I am very inconsistent - I can put in 4-6 on a sunday studying both charts(looking for pins and other possible area's of interest)...
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  #49164  
Old Dec 3, 2009 3:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipBadger View Post
Hey everyone,

I'm new here. I've read your thread and visited the PF for a month so I know what it's about. I'd like to pick the brains of some of you here with a question. I know you trade "price action" based on the candle formations such as a PB, OB, IB, etc.. I also know that newbies are supposed to stick to the larger TF charts. My question is have any of you ever thought about how the "bars" change from...

Hey Pip

Some people will look at the makeup of their bar. For example I think Bundyraider will dissect the lower timeframes of the bar he is looking at. So if he sees a big 1hr he might drop down and see how it formed. For example did price shoot up hard on the 15min and back down real quick and all of that causing it. Or did price move up and trickle down slow. This can give you some idea of the strength of what is taking place. For example a very hard and fast rejection can be a signal that a very large order came into the market and we can piggy back off that. I think I do this a bit subconsciously from watching so many charts, but for the most part I stick to a chart is a chart, and think of the price bars themselves as simply the trigger point and my focus is on location, location, location.

Just my views of course
Mike
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  #49186  
Old Dec 3, 2009 11:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shephrd View Post
Hey mbqb11,

Thanks for all of your great trading insights. In the Guest Material section of the James16 Group site, you did a great video. In this video you mention the possibility of making another video that goes into greater detail about your method of catching the beginning of a trend and successfully managing the trade through to the completion of the trend days or even weeks later. Did you ever do this video? If so, then where can I find it? If you did not do this video would you mind sharing your trade management method here? I'm very interested...
Hey Shephrd

My exit methods are based on each individual trade situation. They vary greatly. For some more insights this post might help you

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36491

The times I will really hold on are on major major reversals. These are huge bars or the perfect bar in the perfect location.

Hope that post helps give you more of an idea

Mike
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  #49154  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
I'm trying to figure out why the EURCAD 4H PB failed. Fortunately I had my sell order under the round number and it never triggered, but here's what I saw on the 4H chart:

1) diverge on the rsi
2) fib confuence
3) nice looking shape on the fib
4) with the trend on the daily

HOWEVER, I also saw

1) above a round number (1.5800) / strong support
2) against a a decent looking counter PB on the daily chart resting on the EMA.

My inclination is that as expected, the daily was more powerful (as that PB broke exactly as it should have)

Comments?
Hey Frank

This one technically never triggered the low. Remember a bar is not valid until it breaks the low. But with that said, look at how small t his bar looks in relation to the bars around it. On the h4 timeframe does this bar really stand out to you as having some serious power of sellers behind it? Remember we have to think about why these bars should work. Size is one easy way to visually tell us a story.

Best
Mike
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  #49155  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by countmybones View Post
Hi Mike, thanks for taking your time to reply. When you said the first pin that barely triggered, did you mean that the price did not drop significantly after the pin? Perhaps something like this first picture? Besides that, do you mind to explain what you meant by a "semi looking pin"? It looks like a pin to me, with long nose and small body.

Looking at the weekly chart, I think the first two blue boxes can be considered as one bearish outer bar? While the third is a beob.

Thanks.
Hey CMB

Yes after that first pin formed, price just barely triggered the low. A fast hard break is always a better sign of strength of course. The second bar is not technically a pin as it has a lower low then the previous bar and the nose does not stick above the high. This is only a bar that has a pin'esque shape, not actually a pin. But again visually show some weakness with the prior bar as well.

As for the second chart. The third blue box is a beob that is correct. The other 2 boxes. If you mean you combine all the bars from the first bar in box 1 to the last bar in box 2 to make a BEOB then yes, but that is stretching it for me.

Best
Mike
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  #49157  
Old Dec 3, 2009 12:58pm
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Hey Perch

After you have a trade plan and know what you are looking for scanning your charts for setup takes very little time.

For example if you are on the daily charts, you would check your charts once a day at the daily close looking for the things one follows in their method and shut them down. It takes me roughly 5-10 mins to go through all my charts once a day. Of course the more new the longer it usually takes, but this is just to give you an idea. One doesn't need to overly study a chart for 4 hours a day, usually that is trying to find reasons to trade instead of letting the trades come to you.

If you can't check your charts once a day everyday usually it is best to go up a timeframe and trade only the weekly. I think it would greatly effect your variance in a poor way to check the daily only 3/5 days a week. Not that it is wrong. But if time is a factor hoping up a timeframe is always a good idea. This would mean you would only need to check your charts once a week on the weekly. And yes if you are not at your computer when the bar triggers one just simply puts a buy or sell stop(limit) at the areas they are looking to trade. Example, a weekly pin shows up to go short. You place a sell stop below the bar and then let it do its thing. Of course then you have to decide what style of trade mgmt is right for you. Some people do set and forgets. More like to manage their trades a bit more hands on, but that again comes down to the trader.

As for profitable EA. Of course their are , but I think you are wasting your time this early on. I would save that for down the road if that is something you want to pursue. You ahve a better chance at writing a profitable EA with a much better understanding of the market. Most people run those crappy backtest MT4 things and curve fit their systems and then get creamed. An EA should still be exploiting an edge.

Hope this helps
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by perch View Post
Sorry if this is just a basic question - but I am struggling at the moment.

How much time (in hours or specify otherwise) should a beginner put in studying charts?

I find at best I am very inconsistent - I can put in 4-6 on a sunday studying both charts(looking for pins and other possible area's of interest)...
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  #49164  
Old Dec 3, 2009 3:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipBadger View Post
Hey everyone,

I'm new here. I've read your thread and visited the PF for a month so I know what it's about. I'd like to pick the brains of some of you here with a question. I know you trade "price action" based on the candle formations such as a PB, OB, IB, etc.. I also know that newbies are supposed to stick to the larger TF charts. My question is have any of you ever thought about how the "bars" change from...

Hey Pip

Some people will look at the makeup of their bar. For example I think Bundyraider will dissect the lower timeframes of the bar he is looking at. So if he sees a big 1hr he might drop down and see how it formed. For example did price shoot up hard on the 15min and back down real quick and all of that causing it. Or did price move up and trickle down slow. This can give you some idea of the strength of what is taking place. For example a very hard and fast rejection can be a signal that a very large order came into the market and we can piggy back off that. I think I do this a bit subconsciously from watching so many charts, but for the most part I stick to a chart is a chart, and think of the price bars themselves as simply the trigger point and my focus is on location, location, location.

Just my views of course
Mike
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  #49186  
Old Dec 3, 2009 11:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shephrd View Post
Hey mbqb11,

Thanks for all of your great trading insights. In the Guest Material section of the James16 Group site, you did a great video. In this video you mention the possibility of making another video that goes into greater detail about your method of catching the beginning of a trend and successfully managing the trade through to the completion of the trend days or even weeks later. Did you ever do this video? If so, then where can I find it? If you did not do this video would you mind sharing your trade management method here? I'm very interested...
Hey Shephrd

My exit methods are based on each individual trade situation. They vary greatly. For some more insights this post might help you

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36491

The times I will really hold on are on major major reversals. These are huge bars or the perfect bar in the perfect location.

Hope that post helps give you more of an idea

Mike
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  #49249  
Old Dec 4, 2009 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
they call me dr love !!!!!!
ROFLLLLL
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  #49279  
Old Dec 6, 2009 4:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
just curious why do most of you guys trade forex over stocks?
or do you guys trade stocks too?

lets say you do master the J16 method and get good at it, you will probably be pulling in 1-3% ROI monthly like most PF members (don't think you can pull 20%+ month after month, for 3 years+.. that is just unrealistic..), which is very good, you might be averaging 20%+ ROI per year.

now lets just say you buy and held some stocks for a year, you could also have a very good chance of making 10%, or 20%+ ROI (assuming you held it for 1year+ you only pay...
I think it is just a comfortablility factor. Many people trade everything that moves. At the end of the day it is whatever is pulling in money for you. I think a lot of us agree that a chart is a chart, which means it is all about opportunities that fit your method. No matter what you trade you still will experience all that positives and negatives(drawdowns, variance etc).

Best
Mike
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  #49284  
Old Dec 6, 2009 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davema View Post
My biggest problem is what's between my ears. Good luck to you.
Take care,
Dave
Ain't it the truth
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  #49289  
Old Dec 6, 2009 4:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Thoughts on EJ Monthly Inside bar? (Daily chart also attached)
Hey A,

Remember not an inside bar till the month is over, still a lot of days left :P

Mike
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  #49294  
Old Dec 6, 2009 6:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
LOL

I was looking at this like I look at my daily charts around 4:45... (5:00 close) when the next bar has not formed! Thanks for the heads up mbq
been there done that
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  #49298  
Old Dec 6, 2009 9:57pm
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Haven't touched a weekly timeframe in a loooong time
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  #49249  
Old Dec 4, 2009 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
they call me dr love !!!!!!
ROFLLLLL
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  #49279  
Old Dec 6, 2009 4:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
just curious why do most of you guys trade forex over stocks?
or do you guys trade stocks too?

lets say you do master the J16 method and get good at it, you will probably be pulling in 1-3% ROI monthly like most PF members (don't think you can pull 20%+ month after month, for 3 years+.. that is just unrealistic..), which is very good, you might be averaging 20%+ ROI per year.

now lets just say you buy and held some stocks for a year, you could also have a very good chance of making 10%, or 20%+ ROI (assuming you held it for 1year+ you only pay...
I think it is just a comfortablility factor. Many people trade everything that moves. At the end of the day it is whatever is pulling in money for you. I think a lot of us agree that a chart is a chart, which means it is all about opportunities that fit your method. No matter what you trade you still will experience all that positives and negatives(drawdowns, variance etc).

Best
Mike
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  #49284  
Old Dec 6, 2009 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davema View Post
My biggest problem is what's between my ears. Good luck to you.
Take care,
Dave
Ain't it the truth
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  #49289  
Old Dec 6, 2009 4:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Thoughts on EJ Monthly Inside bar? (Daily chart also attached)
Hey A,

Remember not an inside bar till the month is over, still a lot of days left :P

Mike
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  #49331  
Old Dec 7, 2009 1:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wh1zz0 View Post
Gold and silver showing almost the same thing (only difference is Gold looks better as silver looks close to a ppz)... 700 pips SL

Are you in this Gold trade Mike?
Hey Whizz yes I am it is bouncing at the prior bars low for now, but I am just going to let this develop. Don't worry about the sl. It is all relative and just position size correctly !

Mike
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  #49294  
Old Dec 6, 2009 6:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
LOL

I was looking at this like I look at my daily charts around 4:45... (5:00 close) when the next bar has not formed! Thanks for the heads up mbq
been there done that
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  #49298  
Old Dec 6, 2009 9:57pm
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Haven't touched a weekly timeframe in a loooong time
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  #49341  
Old Dec 8, 2009 12:29am
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Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question for the Seniors Re:PPZ lines

I sent this to James, but I know he's a busy guy.

How many plot out their PPZs and wait for price to come to them, and how many look for good bars and then look for the PPZ around them? I've been having a bit of an issue lately with having zones on my chart. What is better? Most of the uncluttered charts I see on here posted by the senior members leads me to believe you look for PPZ after seeing PA, but I believe it is taught the other way around? (I also see the touch trades and guys taking mediocre bars...
I think the newer someone is the more they should have these zones pre plotted. This will help combat the trader who sees any old bar and then proceeds to curve fit it to make it work. I personally don't have them plotted. I am very big on round numbers. For this reason I have those on my charts which always gives me a general scope to put each market into. I then work off there as trades meet my criteria, and go through the major and minor ppzs once in a trade for mgmt.

Again this is how I go about it

Mike
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  #49343  
Old Dec 8, 2009 1:07am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
i like that round number indicator but with so many pairs it chews up your cpu speed i find and it becomes annoying. I have a brand new computer to with plenty of power but still chews it up.
Thats weird matt, it doesn't really use much juice on my end. I run 3-4 mt4s all with it as well. And Ontop have my platforms for trading, excel , etc open.

Mike
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  #49349  
Old Dec 8, 2009 2:57am
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Originally Posted by pmn100 View Post
Had the same issue. You're using the wrong indicator. There are two, one must be badly written, the other is fine. You want to use the one called Grid_v1_0.ex4 (attached). The other one (roundnumbers.ex4) should really be deleted from the attachments here but not sure thats possible.
Great! Yes I use the grid one too

Mike
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  #49331  
Old Dec 7, 2009 1:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wh1zz0 View Post
Gold and silver showing almost the same thing (only difference is Gold looks better as silver looks close to a ppz)... 700 pips SL

Are you in this Gold trade Mike?
Hey Whizz yes I am it is bouncing at the prior bars low for now, but I am just going to let this develop. Don't worry about the sl. It is all relative and just position size correctly !

Mike
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  #49341  
Old Dec 8, 2009 12:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question for the Seniors Re:PPZ lines

I sent this to James, but I know he's a busy guy.

How many plot out their PPZs and wait for price to come to them, and how many look for good bars and then look for the PPZ around them? I've been having a bit of an issue lately with having zones on my chart. What is better? Most of the uncluttered charts I see on here posted by the senior members leads me to believe you look for PPZ after seeing PA, but I believe it is taught the other way around? (I also see the touch trades and guys taking mediocre bars...
I think the newer someone is the more they should have these zones pre plotted. This will help combat the trader who sees any old bar and then proceeds to curve fit it to make it work. I personally don't have them plotted. I am very big on round numbers. For this reason I have those on my charts which always gives me a general scope to put each market into. I then work off there as trades meet my criteria, and go through the major and minor ppzs once in a trade for mgmt.

Again this is how I go about it

Mike
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  #49343  
Old Dec 8, 2009 1:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
i like that round number indicator but with so many pairs it chews up your cpu speed i find and it becomes annoying. I have a brand new computer to with plenty of power but still chews it up.
Thats weird matt, it doesn't really use much juice on my end. I run 3-4 mt4s all with it as well. And Ontop have my platforms for trading, excel , etc open.

Mike
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  #49349  
Old Dec 8, 2009 2:57am
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Originally Posted by pmn100 View Post
Had the same issue. You're using the wrong indicator. There are two, one must be badly written, the other is fine. You want to use the one called Grid_v1_0.ex4 (attached). The other one (roundnumbers.ex4) should really be deleted from the attachments here but not sure thats possible.
Great! Yes I use the grid one too

Mike
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  #49383  
Old Dec 8, 2009 9:59am
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Originally Posted by yarin View Post
I trade it as a breakthrough trade:
1.break of storng SR line(the yellow one in this case)
2.pullback to the SR line.
3.price make a priceaction pattern on the SR line(pinbar)

I remember mike talk about this kinde of trades on his J16 vid.
Hey Yarin,

You have the general concept of breakout + pullback right, but here are the things I would personally like to see.

A more concrete pattern as opposed to a single line or ppz. Now ppz are fantastic and I use them more then probably anything else. But when looking for a direct spot of a breakout and pullback, I find actual breakout patterns to be the strongest in their ability to hold on price action(esp price action which is less then stellar). That is if the breakout pattern area is very significant and we find one correctly we will have a great point to pinpoint the potential pullback. On PPZ which is what your yellow line is more we are focused more on a "zone" or area. The second thing I would like to see is a better bar then that one. Just something a little bit more significant. But the main point is the first point I made.

Let me know if that makes sense and of course this is just how I do things
Mike
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  #49384  
Old Dec 8, 2009 10:04am
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Originally Posted by MattW View Post
Mike, I know you like breakout trades. What do you make of the CADCHF 4hour?
9666 looks like an interesting area with some recent history...
Hey Matt

You have a wedge of sorts forming up with a bias to the downside for a break. I would most likely pass unless it was a clear break as I am not in love with that ascending trendline. I would be more interested in the parity level of 1.0 as this has been nice to watch. Can anyone spot the 4bar low higher close off that level

Mike
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  #49392  
Old Dec 8, 2009 3:01pm
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Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
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  #49403  
Old Dec 8, 2009 4:55pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Good evening guys,

I have a trade on the EUR GPY that's gone in my direction. It has already moved to my target of Take Profit but the move is such a dominant one that I want to leave a proportion of the money remain in the trade. I'm demoing on FXPro.

Can anyone tell me how to actually take some money off the table and continue with the rest. I mean the actual execution of theorder.

I have alraedy moved my stop loss.

Much obliged.

P

Hey P

Just open your terminal and go to your open trade. Right click the trade and go to close trade. Then when that next window comes up change the volume. So if you opened 2 lots, change it to 1 lot. then click close. It will then close half

Best
Mike

dan got it first !
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  #49407  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:43pm
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Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Attachment 375496
Hi All

Got my eye on CadJpy on the 4H at the moment. A pin has formed on the 4H (FxPro) at the 8300 level.

Pros:
Close of Pin looks good ( above 8300 )
Confluence with 50% fib from recent swing low to high
8300 appears to have been an important area over the last year

Cons
Pin is not very long
No clear trend recently on Daily
Marked areas a concern

Probably not going to trade this as i would have preferred to see a bigger Pin and more space but would like to hear any comments.
Hey LJ

Personally when I see small little bars like this I never even bother. It was after a strong move down towards the end of the day. My thought process would be simply profit taking and end of the day wrap up. That creates this small bar, but to me doesn't give us a significant idea of strong bullish order flow. Do these work? Sure. Do they fail? More so IMO

Just my views
Mike
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  #49408  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:44pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I have a question regarding M.Averages.

I've only read the first 200 and the last 100 pages so I'm not sure if it has been answered before.

Are MA's used as part of PPZ?

Are there particular MA's to use? ie simple vs exp and what no

I noted when I used MA's that as you go from one TF to another (I've only used 365 as I heard it mentioned here) the proximity of the bars to the MA varies. Does that mean that you put specific MA in specific TF's only?

Sorry if I'm asking too much. I understand that some info may be limited to PF and I have...
Hey Peter

The most common and basic MAs used here are the 365 and 150 emas. Their are some faster MAs some use for other things, but those are the most basic. THey are not magic, just like any MA is not. But they can help with confluence. For example the first time price moves through the 365 and pullsback to it for example. Say that 365 lines up with a PPZ round number etc. Just gives us strong clues of what areas may or may not hold.

Best
Mike
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  #49383  
Old Dec 8, 2009 9:59am
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Originally Posted by yarin View Post
I trade it as a breakthrough trade:
1.break of storng SR line(the yellow one in this case)
2.pullback to the SR line.
3.price make a priceaction pattern on the SR line(pinbar)

I remember mike talk about this kinde of trades on his J16 vid.
Hey Yarin,

You have the general concept of breakout + pullback right, but here are the things I would personally like to see.

A more concrete pattern as opposed to a single line or ppz. Now ppz are fantastic and I use them more then probably anything else. But when looking for a direct spot of a breakout and pullback, I find actual breakout patterns to be the strongest in their ability to hold on price action(esp price action which is less then stellar). That is if the breakout pattern area is very significant and we find one correctly we will have a great point to pinpoint the potential pullback. On PPZ which is what your yellow line is more we are focused more on a "zone" or area. The second thing I would like to see is a better bar then that one. Just something a little bit more significant. But the main point is the first point I made.

Let me know if that makes sense and of course this is just how I do things
Mike
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  #49384  
Old Dec 8, 2009 10:04am
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Originally Posted by MattW View Post
Mike, I know you like breakout trades. What do you make of the CADCHF 4hour?
9666 looks like an interesting area with some recent history...
Hey Matt

You have a wedge of sorts forming up with a bias to the downside for a break. I would most likely pass unless it was a clear break as I am not in love with that ascending trendline. I would be more interested in the parity level of 1.0 as this has been nice to watch. Can anyone spot the 4bar low higher close off that level

Mike
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  #49392  
Old Dec 8, 2009 3:01pm
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Originally Posted by Matiasfx View Post
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  #49411  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:50pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Chart eg AUD CAD

On 4 hourly chart the bars are hitting the 365 ema and therefore could serve as support to bounce off

However on the daily chart the bars are far away.

So which TF do you'listen to'?
I keep all my analysis independent of one and another for timeframes. This helps cut down on analysis paralysis and over analyzing. Always keep it simple.

Again just my views though
Mike
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  #49428  
Old Dec 9, 2009 2:23am
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
Hey Mike, this brings an interesting point; does that mean you plot your S/R levels independently too?

I identify big round numbers on the weekly and that's it, even if I'm trading on the 4H. However, I've noticed I might be better off plotting them on the daily too, as to get a more accurate alignment. Thanks in advance!

Hey Frank

I don't depend entirely on a round number. It is again more just a framework. So I am always looking for major and minor s/r. I don't neccesarily plot every little support and resistance. I tend to note it as I am looking to get into a trade, or a trade progresses. So for example I don't care about a very minor s/r flip, but I will note if I am actually in a trade as opposed to using it to trade off. I don't do things like plot s/r from the weekly and trade off that the daily/4hr etc. I look at the s/r on each timeframe by itself, and believe you can make all your decisions on that one timeframe. For example, I posted about getting in the gold weekly pin. The thought process is simple. it is big pin, divg, round number, etc. Then I go into where is it likely to go, both major and minor areas, and then I decide how to proceed with trade mgmt.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #49403  
Old Dec 8, 2009 4:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Good evening guys,

I have a trade on the EUR GPY that's gone in my direction. It has already moved to my target of Take Profit but the move is such a dominant one that I want to leave a proportion of the money remain in the trade. I'm demoing on FXPro.

Can anyone tell me how to actually take some money off the table and continue with the rest. I mean the actual execution of theorder.

I have alraedy moved my stop loss.

Much obliged.

P

Hey P

Just open your terminal and go to your open trade. Right click the trade and go to close trade. Then when that next window comes up change the volume. So if you opened 2 lots, change it to 1 lot. then click close. It will then close half

Best
Mike

dan got it first !
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  #49407  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Attachment 375496
Hi All

Got my eye on CadJpy on the 4H at the moment. A pin has formed on the 4H (FxPro) at the 8300 level.

Pros:
Close of Pin looks good ( above 8300 )
Confluence with 50% fib from recent swing low to high
8300 appears to have been an important area over the last year

Cons
Pin is not very long
No clear trend recently on Daily
Marked areas a concern

Probably not going to trade this as i would have preferred to see a bigger Pin and more space but would like to hear any comments.
Hey LJ

Personally when I see small little bars like this I never even bother. It was after a strong move down towards the end of the day. My thought process would be simply profit taking and end of the day wrap up. That creates this small bar, but to me doesn't give us a significant idea of strong bullish order flow. Do these work? Sure. Do they fail? More so IMO

Just my views
Mike
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  #49408  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I have a question regarding M.Averages.

I've only read the first 200 and the last 100 pages so I'm not sure if it has been answered before.

Are MA's used as part of PPZ?

Are there particular MA's to use? ie simple vs exp and what no

I noted when I used MA's that as you go from one TF to another (I've only used 365 as I heard it mentioned here) the proximity of the bars to the MA varies. Does that mean that you put specific MA in specific TF's only?

Sorry if I'm asking too much. I understand that some info may be limited to PF and I have...
Hey Peter

The most common and basic MAs used here are the 365 and 150 emas. Their are some faster MAs some use for other things, but those are the most basic. THey are not magic, just like any MA is not. But they can help with confluence. For example the first time price moves through the 365 and pullsback to it for example. Say that 365 lines up with a PPZ round number etc. Just gives us strong clues of what areas may or may not hold.

Best
Mike
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  #49411  
Old Dec 8, 2009 5:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Chart eg AUD CAD

On 4 hourly chart the bars are hitting the 365 ema and therefore could serve as support to bounce off

However on the daily chart the bars are far away.

So which TF do you'listen to'?
I keep all my analysis independent of one and another for timeframes. This helps cut down on analysis paralysis and over analyzing. Always keep it simple.

Again just my views though
Mike
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  #49428  
Old Dec 9, 2009 2:23am
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
Hey Mike, this brings an interesting point; does that mean you plot your S/R levels independently too?

I identify big round numbers on the weekly and that's it, even if I'm trading on the 4H. However, I've noticed I might be better off plotting them on the daily too, as to get a more accurate alignment. Thanks in advance!

Hey Frank

I don't depend entirely on a round number. It is again more just a framework. So I am always looking for major and minor s/r. I don't neccesarily plot every little support and resistance. I tend to note it as I am looking to get into a trade, or a trade progresses. So for example I don't care about a very minor s/r flip, but I will note if I am actually in a trade as opposed to using it to trade off. I don't do things like plot s/r from the weekly and trade off that the daily/4hr etc. I look at the s/r on each timeframe by itself, and believe you can make all your decisions on that one timeframe. For example, I posted about getting in the gold weekly pin. The thought process is simple. it is big pin, divg, round number, etc. Then I go into where is it likely to go, both major and minor areas, and then I decide how to proceed with trade mgmt.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #49495  
Old Dec 9, 2009 4:07pm
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Originally Posted by Pip Pride View Post
Sorry for a total noobie question, and I have tried to search for an answer. I was wondering how candlestick or price action works when different brokers, banks people etc are working off different time frames.

For instance, I have two demo accounts one on GMT and the other is on GMT+1. So when I'm looking at a daily candle closed on one, the other is still forming and the same for 4h candles. This puts everything out of sync, right? So how can you base a trade on something that is so arbitrary and random?
Hey Pip

This throws people initially. But here is my outlook. Firstly price is still price. That is every movement is still happening across the board. The only difference is how those price ticks are aggregated for us visually. This is why location as LVG said, trumps everything. I always like to see the price bars are the trigger points more then anything.


Best
Mike
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  #49499  
Old Dec 9, 2009 7:10pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Guys I'm hooked on this damned forex thing.
I go through my daily working just waiting for the time to get back on the screen.

Anyways I've decided to set up a sort of virtual office to cement my commitment in the form of a lap top dedicated to trading only.


are there minimum requirements that the laptop should have
The only real requirements is that it is good enough for you . It would be frustrating if things ran slow and what not. I personally have two PCs. My trading station is 3 screens and fast enough that I can run all my platforms trading programs without worrying. Then my second PC is simply 2 monitors and for everything else. It makes life easier, but it won't make one a profitable trader, so if you are comfortable with what you got that is all that matters

Mike
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  #49500  
Old Dec 9, 2009 7:11pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Are there brokers that allow you to trade from anywhere in the world?

How do you get some of the profits from the broker account to your account in your country? I s it a simple transaction? (you know for when I start making millions!)
All my brokers are in the US, so it is just wire transfers. Most will let you know what countries they do and do not accept. For the most part it is straightforward just a matter of transfering funds.

Best
Mike
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  #49519  
Old Dec 10, 2009 3:16am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey mike this one looks ugly right???
Do you mean in terms of a breakout and pullback?

If so then that trendline is way to steep for me when I am looking to do a pullback trade.

Sorry if I missed your question

Mike
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  #49495  
Old Dec 9, 2009 4:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pip Pride View Post
Sorry for a total noobie question, and I have tried to search for an answer. I was wondering how candlestick or price action works when different brokers, banks people etc are working off different time frames.

For instance, I have two demo accounts one on GMT and the other is on GMT+1. So when I'm looking at a daily candle closed on one, the other is still forming and the same for 4h candles. This puts everything out of sync, right? So how can you base a trade on something that is so arbitrary and random?
Hey Pip

This throws people initially. But here is my outlook. Firstly price is still price. That is every movement is still happening across the board. The only difference is how those price ticks are aggregated for us visually. This is why location as LVG said, trumps everything. I always like to see the price bars are the trigger points more then anything.


Best
Mike
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  #49499  
Old Dec 9, 2009 7:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Guys I'm hooked on this damned forex thing.
I go through my daily working just waiting for the time to get back on the screen.

Anyways I've decided to set up a sort of virtual office to cement my commitment in the form of a lap top dedicated to trading only.


are there minimum requirements that the laptop should have
The only real requirements is that it is good enough for you . It would be frustrating if things ran slow and what not. I personally have two PCs. My trading station is 3 screens and fast enough that I can run all my platforms trading programs without worrying. Then my second PC is simply 2 monitors and for everything else. It makes life easier, but it won't make one a profitable trader, so if you are comfortable with what you got that is all that matters

Mike
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  #49500  
Old Dec 9, 2009 7:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Are there brokers that allow you to trade from anywhere in the world?

How do you get some of the profits from the broker account to your account in your country? I s it a simple transaction? (you know for when I start making millions!)
All my brokers are in the US, so it is just wire transfers. Most will let you know what countries they do and do not accept. For the most part it is straightforward just a matter of transfering funds.

Best
Mike
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  #49554  
Old Dec 10, 2009 11:52am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Yea you got it right.

So a steep Trend Line means a strong trend and you don't want to go against it??
yep you got it Plus it is just tough to find good PA off such a steep trendline that would warrant a trade. So it sort of does that for you.

Best
Mike
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  #49519  
Old Dec 10, 2009 3:16am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey mike this one looks ugly right???
Do you mean in terms of a breakout and pullback?

If so then that trendline is way to steep for me when I am looking to do a pullback trade.

Sorry if I missed your question

Mike
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  #49563  
Old Dec 10, 2009 5:03pm
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Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Took the Nat Gas Outside bar last night.

Outside bar, swing high, Round number, PPZ, down trend, some space. It entered, went 20 pips (my EA was set for 30) and turned around and ran.
It did give me some chance to profit, no doubt, but certainly movd the other way quick. Something to think about next time.

Any thoughts on the bar? It followed my rules, only thing I see is it could have had more space. I do see the PPZ now (White line) that it hit, but I expected it to go a little bit lower before seeing trouble.
Hey At

I would say safely that your sell order should have gone under 4.8 to confirm break past that number. Again everyone uses different buffers but that would be my take from the look of it. Especially since it was in that sideways market. In fact I would be more likely to take the BUOB that has formed even though it is at a swing high b/c it is trading away from all that mess.

Mike
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  #49554  
Old Dec 10, 2009 11:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Yea you got it right.

So a steep Trend Line means a strong trend and you don't want to go against it??
yep you got it Plus it is just tough to find good PA off such a steep trendline that would warrant a trade. So it sort of does that for you.

Best
Mike
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  #49563  
Old Dec 10, 2009 5:03pm
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Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Took the Nat Gas Outside bar last night.

Outside bar, swing high, Round number, PPZ, down trend, some space. It entered, went 20 pips (my EA was set for 30) and turned around and ran.
It did give me some chance to profit, no doubt, but certainly movd the other way quick. Something to think about next time.

Any thoughts on the bar? It followed my rules, only thing I see is it could have had more space. I do see the PPZ now (White line) that it hit, but I expected it to go a little bit lower before seeing trouble.
Hey At

I would say safely that your sell order should have gone under 4.8 to confirm break past that number. Again everyone uses different buffers but that would be my take from the look of it. Especially since it was in that sideways market. In fact I would be more likely to take the BUOB that has formed even though it is at a swing high b/c it is trading away from all that mess.

Mike
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  #49622  
Old Dec 11, 2009 3:05pm
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markets have been very choppy if you ask me(aside from a few pairs). This is still my only trade thus far this month and I am going to hold it and see how next week shapes up. I guess it was a good time to catch the flu since I don't need to be in front of the charts with these markets.
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  #49622  
Old Dec 11, 2009 3:05pm
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markets have been very choppy if you ask me(aside from a few pairs). This is still my only trade thus far this month and I am going to hold it and see how next week shapes up. I guess it was a good time to catch the flu since I don't need to be in front of the charts with these markets.
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  #49660  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:37pm
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Originally Posted by TitiX View Post
Hello to everyone on the thread,
Hey Bud welcome
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  #49661  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:38pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Hi Bee, from prior posts from the seniors... the one that keeps coming up is "Pring on Price". There might have been another one, but I can't think of it off the top of my head.

Have a great week.

-- Danny
I have read a lot of books. Pring on Price patterns is the only book I ever recommend from a technical standpoint. I even sent someone on the boards my copy cause I think it overstayed its welcome on my desk :P
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  #49662  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:39pm
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Originally Posted by herry_winandi View Post
what about this quadruple high break ? also on my fxpro server the gchf 4hr not showing pinbar..
Hey Henry

This is a GREAT example of a multiple bar high breakout. Very well spotted.

Mike
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  #49663  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:40pm
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Originally Posted by herry_winandi View Post
there's a pin bar, 61% fibo, and also double low.. is that a valid double low ?
I would only call that next bar an inside bar. To be a valid double bar low on the 4hr it would have to be to the pip for me. I also would never use that to trade, I would rather trade it based on the pin(which I would cancel order if next bar doesn't break as that is how I do it). Some might still see if the IB breaks though.

Best
Mike
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  #49677  
Old Dec 14, 2009 12:29am
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Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hi guys,

Why you guys do not consider the EURCAD pin bar, it has less resistence on top compare to GBPCAD.

PippingM
Do you mean the daily pin from thursday?
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  #49680  
Old Dec 14, 2009 12:41am
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Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hello Mike,

Yes, I mean the Friday Pin on EURCAD.

It seems has more potential than GBPCAD.


PippingM
My response to someone about the eur/cad was that I didn't like this bar for a few reasons. Firstly if you zoom back a bit the market is extremely choppy. What this usually means is price is going to bounce at the very first trouble area(first blue box). Now this doesn't mean it won't continue on but what it does is put one in a bit of an awkward spot. A move to b/e at that point is nearly a guarantee of a stop out at b/e since it is so close. A close out their is barley profit, and holding and taking any kind of loss would hurt. Now a much bigger bar would give more confidence to get to the higher blue box trouble area. Again, these are just my opinions.

Best
Mike
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  #49660  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TitiX View Post
Hello to everyone on the thread,
Hey Bud welcome
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  #49661  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Hi Bee, from prior posts from the seniors... the one that keeps coming up is "Pring on Price". There might have been another one, but I can't think of it off the top of my head.

Have a great week.

-- Danny
I have read a lot of books. Pring on Price patterns is the only book I ever recommend from a technical standpoint. I even sent someone on the boards my copy cause I think it overstayed its welcome on my desk :P
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  #49662  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herry_winandi View Post
what about this quadruple high break ? also on my fxpro server the gchf 4hr not showing pinbar..
Hey Henry

This is a GREAT example of a multiple bar high breakout. Very well spotted.

Mike
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  #49663  
Old Dec 13, 2009 2:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herry_winandi View Post
there's a pin bar, 61% fibo, and also double low.. is that a valid double low ?
I would only call that next bar an inside bar. To be a valid double bar low on the 4hr it would have to be to the pip for me. I also would never use that to trade, I would rather trade it based on the pin(which I would cancel order if next bar doesn't break as that is how I do it). Some might still see if the IB breaks though.

Best
Mike
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  #49705  
Old Dec 14, 2009 1:26pm
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Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hi Guys,

It is so typical choppy days before Christmas.

There are still some price action that could make us some pips. Anyway, as long as our capital are protected, even BE trade are still winners.
Yep this is very common with Holiday trading. Markets are so whippy and dead I am still holding my gold shorts, but I am not looking to get involved when things are like this. Things can turn and chop you out real quick

Mike
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  #49715  
Old Dec 14, 2009 4:27pm
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Hi

Anyone looking at USD/CAD at the moment. I believe there may be a potential short on here on the 4h and daily, though there is choppy price below. But I'm new here, and would like to see some one with more experience in J16 give it a proper J16 evaluation.
Hey Pip Pride

This is winding up real tight. I will never trade within a wedge this tight. I always wait for the breakout opportunity outside this wedge(which is right on the 1.05 which I especially like.


Mike
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  #49720  
Old Dec 14, 2009 6:34pm
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Hi, Danny.
Thank you very much for your comments and advise.
I appreciate it very much.
Hey MM

I missed your post b/c of the delay for the new members screening.

1hr inside bars are super super tricky. I like how you pieced the information together, but this is real tough with inside bars. I would stick to the pins/outside bars initially. I feel the learning curve there is much faster.

Also a general rule are the more bar highs/lows in a row/area the better. Especially on such a low timeframe. I wouldn't put too much though into a 2bar low on the hourly as they happen often. Now if it was a 8-10 bar low you got something. I like to find multiple bar highs/lows on daily/weekly, those can be very very strong.

Just some thoughts and welcome to the thread
Mike
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  #49759  
Old Dec 15, 2009 1:12pm
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Originally Posted by dobe_r_man View Post
Here is a pic of the new addition to the family on December 21st.
adorable!
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  #49760  
Old Dec 15, 2009 1:52pm
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Originally Posted by djmanu View Post
Hi guys,
Look at EURUSD Daily at a very nice Weekly/Daily PPZ + round nr 1.045, waiting for PA there ...
Any thought about it ?
It sure is I am watching this area as well as most would know about me and my Round numbers


Mike
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  #49769  
Old Dec 15, 2009 8:41pm
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Originally Posted by tyler812 View Post
I'm looking to go long above 90.00: Two bar reversal on weekly, bullish MACD divergence, and trendline violation/breakout.
yeah here are a few scenarios I could see playing out. Love these areas


Mike
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  #49773  
Old Dec 15, 2009 9:17pm
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
I thought this was going to be a good run, but it took me out... I know it's within a range, but this was at the bottom with a nice looking PB. comments?
Hey Frank

From my style of trading. That bar is rather small, but even more importantly to me is how price never broke the high the next bar, and it seems barely nudged the high on that recent bar. That lack of momentum would keep me out of a smaller timeframe trade like the 4hr personally.

Best
Mike
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  #49785  
Old Dec 15, 2009 11:13pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
T
What I wanted when I started was the reassurance of figures, statistics and probabilities. I wanted rules. I wanted "see a 4h pinbar at the 150EMA, pull the trigger". What I hated was when my trade failed and a senior said "well given the weekly trend I wouldn't have done that". Because I wanted a system with quantifiable rules that could be operated by a robot. I wanted it to be a science.

It's just not.
Nice Aaron

This is probably what stops most people. They want it to be 2+2=4. It is the most frustrating I see for people when they post up a trade and hear all the reasons why one person doesn't like it and why one person might. They can't wrap their heads around the fact that it isn't necessarily a black and white answer or rarely is.

It does take time for sure.

Mike
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  #49799  
Old Dec 16, 2009 2:30am
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Hi All,

look at these 4H pin bars. I do not like ACAD and AU as they show the dirrection up and IMO the trend may be down. But I like EA, although it does not seem to be proven by the next bar at the moment.

Which of these three are AA set ups in your opinion?

Attachment 380059

Attachment 380061

Attachment 380062

Hey Zoli

I personally don't like any of these really here are my reasons.

The eur/aud isn't a pin as the open and close are both not within the previous bar. The other two I don't like personally since it was followed by large down moves and then small pins trying to reverse those moves. They can work but those are good only with very tight mgmt. I just think there are much better spots to get ones hard earned money in at

Best
Mike
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  #49838  
Old Dec 16, 2009 12:19pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
how about this scenario:
1.44pf, 1.48xx and then... 1.42 ?
.
This would make the most sense :P
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  #49839  
Old Dec 16, 2009 12:20pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
O give me a daily pin!
That agrees with tha trend!

Hope I got a runner here. SL at the top of the BEOB. BEOB off 1.70. Short 1.6970.


K.I.S.S.
Nice kiss!

I had a pending order here as well but it expired after the hour didn't break the low as per my rules

Hope you catch a nice runner.


Mike
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  #49844  
Old Dec 16, 2009 12:46pm
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Thanks Mike. If this ends up a daily pin waddya think? Are we gonna be ridin' the same train?

K.I.S.S.
Hey Kiss

It would be too small of a bar for me as a daily pin but it would be nice if you are holding it from a smaller timeframe like this. Just due to how choppy the markets are overall I was only looking for a quick hit move off the hourly

Best
Mike
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  #49880  
Old Dec 16, 2009 4:35pm
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Originally Posted by BullsAndBear View Post
Hi guys,

just started studying. so my chart time as far as this method starts now. I was wondering does anyone use this PA method to trade anything other than forex. I thought about demoing some commodities as well. what are your favorite markets to trade?

thx
bulls
Welcome BANDB

Yep you can use this stuff on any type of security out there. Price is universal and it is a beautiful thing

Mike
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  #49889  
Old Dec 16, 2009 6:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
The Markets; A Paradox; Human Intervention:

Who Made that a Pinocchio Bar?

I wanted to build my own house but I know nothing about foundations so I hired the pros to look after that bit.
Then I built the house of my (actually my Wife's) dreams on top of it.

Anyone see a problem there?

I actually did build my wife's house of her dreams but I didn't let anyone else have any say on how it should go.
(I've supervised the construction of over 1,000 homes for other people)

So What?
Here's what.
There is no joining in half way through because you...
this is why I love ya B
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  #49915  
Old Dec 17, 2009 12:48am
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Originally Posted by Revcatze View Post
Hello, i'm new here

i'm halfway through james' videos and it really inspire me
i more than often mess up my trades and as by now, busted 60% of my $6000 investment
now looking to get it back, slowly...(i know i had been very very reckless)

i'm 21 years old indonesian,
nice to meet you all.

anyway, enough of me, i need some help actually, i am now watching EUR/USD H1, and i kinda not confident with my analysis, can you help me? is the pinbar and the target i made with my chart is at the right place?

Attachment 380679

sorry for the noob...
Hey Rev

Welcome to the thread and your story is not somthing many here are unfamiliar with . I hope you will go straight to demo as there is no need to lose our hard earned money while we learn.

None of those bars on your charts are pins. The first bars are too small to be considered much of anything but indecision and waiting bars. And that last bar we want to see the close way up high on the bar and a nice long nose protruding out.

Here on my chart I marked some pins for you to see. There are some more on here but wanted to give you a wide range of examples. The better ones are the first 3. Remember big long noses and big bars

Hope this helps and welcome

Mike
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  #49919  
Old Dec 17, 2009 1:38am
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Originally Posted by Revcatze View Post
yeah, went back to demo to practice, i can be confident in demo without the thought of losing my dying investment ^^

oh, i get it, so a pin bar is something that looks almost similiar to a doji with a long shadow which is in the direction of the trend?
and the 1st target when i take my position there is determined by the closest support/resistance?
It is similar but it has a much longer tail in the opposite direction of where price is going. Pinocchio bar is if it is lying to you is where the name comes from.

As for targets, the first s/r area is a good trouble spot to watch, but targets, exits are highly dependent on the trader. I like to look at each trade and determine the best course of action

Best
Mike
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  #49921  
Old Dec 17, 2009 2:12am
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Originally Posted by Treefingers View Post
Hi,

Would do you guys make of this BUOB for a breakout on the 1hr usd/chf.

I'm looking at the longer time frames showing s/r at the 1.045 level that has been tested twice on the 1h


Appreciate your thoughts.
Hey Tree

Remember we want to see BUOBs at swing lows, this is up at a swing high point. Generally trading into that new high can be very dangerous. Taking out that new high is where new sellers often sit. Best to stick to trading these bars in the prime locations especially when new.

I hope that helps
Mike
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  #49982  
Old Dec 17, 2009 10:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobe_r_man View Post
Yeah, I know they are part of the business and I will get them (drawdowns)....
as Jim always says, what is stopping most people is what is in between their ears.

It is the truth. You have those that get to high when they are winning, to down when they are losing. The best traders I know are the ones who emotions are in check. They understand this is a variance game we are playing. When you can find yourself being overly emotional about a scenario try to identify that moment like you did find out why and then try to some how put it behind you and continue to do what is working for you. I find the more you face something then the next time it doesn't pop its head out as much, and the next even less. I don't know anyone who doesn't have some sort of emotions. Even those with fully mechanical systems must deal with the good and bads.

Mike
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  #49983  
Old Dec 17, 2009 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Silver sell off in 2 min?

K.I.S.S.
and take my gold with it
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  #50039  
Old Dec 17, 2009 3:56pm
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
I've spent the entire day backtesting and I've already realized one thing, I need to learn how far to place my pending orders as to not have them activate too early! I've lost several trades that way. I know Mike mentioned how far he places his pending order but I cannot find the post... I also remember reading that some traders like to place them over/under round numbers... comments and suggestions welcomed!

This backtesting process is a great way to know where you stand in your knowledge of the material too!
Hey Frank

It isn't a set number exactly. I am always looking to place it beyond a round number(if going long), or beyond a recent high etc. Generally it might break down like this

1 hr- 7-15pips
4hr - 10 -20pips
daily 15-25 pips
weekly 20-40 pips

Something like that in general

Mike
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  #50049  
Old Dec 17, 2009 5:16pm
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Originally Posted by wh1zz0 View Post
Mike I bet you're very happy with your short position on gold or are you out? .. I closed mine too soon.. what a wuss..
yep still holding here , will move my stop at weeks end. I have standing take profit at 1075.35 now

Mike
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  #50058  
Old Dec 18, 2009 2:25am
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Originally Posted by ekling View Post
I decided to keep my short trade open and let it run for a while because i think it has potential to drop more. This pullback to the trendline and forming of a pinbar was exactly what i wanted to see. I will move my stop to above that pinbar for now with a guarantee +1% trade.
This is how we read price like a book. Well done !

Mike
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  #50092  
Old Dec 18, 2009 3:44pm
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Originally Posted by Jams View Post
Hi @ all in this very nice forum!

This is my forst post here and I would like to thank you all for your great work here.

I?m pretty new in FX and I was one of those that thaught that I had to trade the 1 minute chart... after reading the whole thread of Jacko and then watching all the free stuff on the James16 homepage and beginning to read this huge thread I now know what I have to do.

Learn the basics, be patient, trade the 1 week/daily chart, be patient ;-)

And I hope that I can do that, with your help!!

P.S.: Yesterday I made I nice trade...
Welcome Jams

Putting a sell stop below 1.5 would have been a great play. 1.5 was being protected by the govt and finally gave way and it was an explosion. As you can imagine many types of orders sat below this level and I regret not being more proactive with this pair and selling there personally

Again welcome to our little corner

Mike
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  #50108  
Old Dec 19, 2009 12:52pm
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Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
First of all, I would like to thank James and all the other seniors for making the thread what it is!

I have been a breakeven trader at best until I started to apply the techniques outlined here....
Hey Stef

Glad to hear you are making some headway towards profitablity. 2 months isn't a lot like you said, but it sure is a start. In a year from now imagine where you can be

I use BO+ pullback in 98% of my breakout trading as you will probably begin to see if you go through my posts. It really helps the confidence level when you identify a pattern and watch price perform exactly as you expect.

As for moving stop to b/e I know their are a few EAs out there,

This might do the trick

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=47845

Best
Mike
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  #50144  
Old Dec 20, 2009 9:36pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Before anyone jumps with an answer, let me ask you, why would you want to trade market like this?
You will get killed 98% times and your account will go down in value with a lightning speed.

We've got dozens of good markets to trade and at any given time there are always few ,that trend nicely. It's the easiest money. I would spend my energy to capitalize on them first, if I was just starting out...

On the other side, those who master sideways market, ..will never look back...
.
prob best post in a lot of pages recently
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  #50184  
Old Dec 21, 2009 12:19pm
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hmmmm, no need to beg the mkt to break in ur favour
also bearish btw
lets see how it playys out
very nice breakout pattern, just wish it wasn't dec 21 lol. Not going to open any new trades personally. Just letting the gold position play out


Mike
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  #50191  
Old Dec 21, 2009 3:35pm
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Originally Posted by Jams View Post
What do you think about this one?

Short entry at around 1,4240 with Stop at 1,4370 and first target the 50 fib!? I know the Pin is not the best looking one and not even on the swing low. What do you think? Could this be a good trade?
Hey Jams

Careful this is just an inside bar(range of the bar is within the prior bar range).

I am not all that thrilled about it to be honest, there just isn't much information one way or the other.

Best
Mike
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  #50203  
Old Dec 21, 2009 9:16pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Have a question regarding these semi-pins off weekend gaps (yellow arrow). If it happens on any day other than Monday, there is no gap and therefore we get a pin.

Do you guys treat this as a pin bar? I'm not trading this because of the location, but the shape of the bar interests me.

Thanks guys.

-- Danny
Hey Danny

You can't really look at it as a pin since it isn't a pin. The gap dynamic is part of the market and thus should be treated separate. Gaps are a whole beast in themselves, and I wouldn't try to dig into it in that regards personally.

Best
Mike
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  #50210  
Old Dec 21, 2009 11:22pm
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Originally Posted by BullsAndBear View Post
So on the close of that second bar, you put a buy stop 10 pips above that bar so if price takes out the high of that bar you are in a trade. do i got it? And vice versa on a double or triple top lower close.
Yep you git it B&B. Technically a bar is not valid until price breaks above the high/low. Taking a retrace vs a break vs a open on close is just all style. They all have drawbacks and advantages. One way is not greater then the other in the end. It is only a matter of what works for the trader.

Best
Mike
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  #50233  
Old Dec 22, 2009 11:35am
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Gold weekly pin hit my take profit. 1 trade this month. Taking the rest of the year off from trading for sure
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  #50240  
Old Dec 22, 2009 12:41pm
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Originally Posted by BullsAndBear View Post
Hey Mike going back 4 peaks on that chart looks like another playable pin bar to the downside. Was wondering if you played that one as well. BTW congrats on you're last play of the year being a winner.

bulls
Hey Bulls

Nope that bar size is too small for me. I like to stick with the larger bars that show much more strength

Thanks
Mike
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  #50258  
Old Dec 22, 2009 4:14pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Beautiful stuff, mike.

May i ask how did you play that pin? SL above the nose? No partial TPs, I believe.

Nos

EDIT: Probably your initial stop was that yellow line. Really nice trade.
Hey Nos

My initial stop was above the pin as it always is for me. No partial take profits. The orange line is where I moved my stop at the beginning of this week and the red is my full take profit area.

Best
Mike
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  #50259  
Old Dec 22, 2009 4:14pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Great trade Mike! I shorted and shorted gold until I left for Colorado for skiing. One of these days I'll get myself right and hold these until they give up all the move. Congrats again!

K.I.S.S.
Had it not been for the holidays/new years, I prob would still be holding this, but I just think it's a good time to close and enjoy the rest of this time

Mike
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  #50260  
Old Dec 22, 2009 4:19pm
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Originally Posted by Glenborrell View Post
Hi everyone,

Quite new here and have been learning heaps so a massive thanks to everyone who has contributed....
Hey Glen

Welcome back, most come full circle end up in some form of "price" type trading.

Usd/chf is interesting. We have great divergence, running up into a round number. This is an IDEAL area I look for trades. Here are the cons. TIME OF YEAR. This is the biggest. Coming into xmas/new year. You would have to do a lot to get me into a trade. I am not even going to touch the markets. They are so thin that even the most ideal conditions can warrant wacky behavior simply b/c how thing liquidity tends to run now. This to me trumps any and everything that PA might show. It is just common sense in my book. When I see people trying to nit pick all these trades this time of year it really shows impatience to me more then anything(again this is a general comment I have made the last week or so about all trades). The smallish pin you see is showing we are gassing a bit, but due to the strong up move, I would never trade those. That is trying to pick a top. I want a true LARGE bar of exhaustion off this area. That would be super ideal. For example a lot of times you see this stall out at the round number + divergence. Then you get a final push higher, to induce buyers and clear out stops before you finally get the large exhaustion true reversal bar. Those are my bread and butter

Best
Mike
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  #50266  
Old Dec 22, 2009 4:56pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Can you dig this one for 2010?
Yes I can sir, or a bounce either way I don't hold to many biases cause I always get in my own way when I do

Best
Mike
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  #50280  
Old Dec 22, 2009 6:45pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Thanks for the answer, Mike.

By the looks of it, it seems close to a 1R trade. Did you risk more than usual because of fact of being weekly based?

(just trying to figure out how you handle these ones)
Hey Nos

Yep it was close, just 1% per trade is my standard. In line with "just another trade" mentality

Best
Mike
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  #50323  
Old Dec 23, 2009 11:48am
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Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Hi Mike,

I noticed that you used TL in the same "format" as Raczek did recently: using Highs (or Closes) rather than Lows. What's the trick? MANY THANKS!
Hey Fx007

Not quite sure what you mean here. In that post I was simply showing divergence of price moving higher and MACD moving lower.

Sorry if I missed your question here let me know
Mike
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  #50332  
Old Dec 23, 2009 3:47pm
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Originally Posted by 4X=0 View Post
is this divergence spotted correctly?

Attachment 383488
yep sure is

Mike
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  #50354  
Old Dec 24, 2009 11:31am
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A very Merry Xmas and happy Holidays to all my friends old and new here! Most of us will never meet yet I feel like I know so many of you so well

Get away from the charts and enjoy this time! For those that can't, I know the feeling too LOL


Mike
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  #50373  
Old Dec 26, 2009 1:45pm
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Hope everyone had an amazing Holiday!

Have a VERY safe and happy new year!


Mike
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  #50422  
Old Dec 28, 2009 5:25pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Between Xmas & Ainsley's Birthday Party, Rieley's young Sister{she's 2 today.} I have managed to squeeze in a moment or two to keep up with the Forum.

You guys that are Trading have Steel in the nether regions.

If you feel that you Must do this, can I suggest that Next Year, you Open a new Demo account to Trade The Holidays. I think it is the only answer you would consider to be true.

Trade for 47 weeks & Gamble for 5...
I 30000% agree with B here. For those trading during these times, just ask yourself if you are trading for the right reasons, or trading to be in it.

Hope you are having some great bday/holidays with the young ones B
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  #50446  
Old Dec 29, 2009 12:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hova View Post
looking at the attached chart, what would you say to this one ?

Its the EUR/CAD daily chart.
The last candle is today, so oyu could review it on your chart.
The PinBar is on a SwingLow.

Of course im long 10 pips above the PB (demo) SL is almost touched, what to do next ?
Close order and go short ?
*confused*

Do i miss anything ?
Hey Hova

In my opinion the problem was with going long on that pinbar. Notice that large run down on this pair, and then you get a very small pinbar. This is like trying to catch a falling knife with such a small bar. When price is really moving we need to especially look for large bars to reverse. Often what happens is you get some profit taking, or some small buying which gives a very small poor pin like this. The high breaks and it turns right around. I avoid these at all costs. As for the BEOB, also remember we want those at swing highs, so we wouldn't want to be trading that on its own either.

Take care
Mike
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  #50448  
Old Dec 29, 2009 12:33pm
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Thanks 4 your thoughts, i will kepp that in my mind.

My question was, if that was a pinbar you would take and 2 days later you see that BEOB, would you close or partclose ?

best thread on FF btw.

rgds
Hey Hova,

That is a super tough question to outright answer. It is entirely situational on what else is going on. If I enter a perfect A+ pinbar, it doesn't reach a trouble area, and forms a huge BEOB taht is nearly hitting my stop, I am just going to keep my stop where it is and let the trade play out as closing for nearly a full loss, or getting hit for a full loss isn't really going to matter to me if I can potentially gain some back.

Really tough to answer as a theoretical question though as each situation I could end up with a different answer

Glad you are enjoying the thread

Mike
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  #50533  
Old Dec 30, 2009 2:00pm
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Attachment 385139

Am I just seening what I want to see and just... ?
oooorrr....???
Your input is highly appreciated Senseis.....

Thank you...!!!
Hey Investor

Few notes here. The biggest one for me is that it is jan 29, tomm is the last trading day of the year before the new year holiday. This means so many normal participants are no where to be found. Thus lower liquidity and thus more erratic price movements. IMO trading around this time is more near flipping a coin. Next remember we MUST wait for the bar to close before it is a pin. This could slowly trickle down and then you will be in a bar before the pin is even formed. Don't fear missing a move, I promise there will be enough good ones not to have to worry. As for the bar itself, for me it is nothing much to get excited for. We recently had a very strong move down, a brief stall and now this would be a very small pin in heavy traffic. If this had a much much longer nose protruding below that previous low we might have something. Now will this potentially work? Well the first trouble area is around 1.4377 since price is in traffic, so we might get tehre, or higher. The key though is this worth really risking our 1,2,3% on at this time of the year. You could get a few different answers from people, but mine would be stay aside and wait for the clearer signals

Have a happy new year

Mike
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  #50547  
Old Dec 30, 2009 4:42pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
what, what, where, what did I miss? Oh, no.. lol.

I'm no sensei, but I'll gladly take your money.

Stop sweating and have some champagne instead....
Trying to catch 5000lbs falling gorilla?.....

Wait for meaningful pullback and go with a trend after liquidity comes back to normal in the new year.
Lot's of space till 25....




Pssst Mike.., don't you need some cash for the New Year's party?

haha yeah I do! champagne aint cheap here
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  #50549  
Old Dec 30, 2009 4:48pm
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I agree with Mike but I must have done the Rumplestiltskin thing or something. jan 29 !!! Tell me it isn't so because I wanted to be back Trading by then...
ahahahaha I am already in party mode I guess, sorry guys! DEC 29! LOL
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  #50553  
Old Dec 30, 2009 6:28pm
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Here is what I look for. If this wasn't the last day before new years, I would sure be trading this one. Large BUOB engulfing a range of bars and a round number with a very strong close


Mike
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  #50555  
Old Dec 30, 2009 6:48pm
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yeah well, i thought about that too....but why risk dec. so well done performance ?
Stop would be 280 pips, very large if you consider a 5k demo acc. so let it go.

the toughest thing is not to trade
Hey Hova

be sure to read up on position sizing. No matter what your stop size is we can control and keep our risk the same. If you risk 1% per trade, your stop can be 50 pips or 500 pips and the risk not change. Shoot me a PM if you don't know this and I will find some links for you

Best
Mike
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  #50557  
Old Dec 30, 2009 8:11pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Question regarding trade management for you Mike. As you say, it's all hypothetical because of time of year, but if this was a normal day and you took it, what would be your plan at that first trouble area in blue? Move to break even? or watch? Seems like an awfuly close first trouble area so I would be curious to know your thoughts.

And best wishes for the new year to everyone who reads and frequents this thread.
I probably wouldn't do anything at that first marked area, but watch and see how price reacts. Ideally i would want price to break up or not get heavily rejected and then look to trail under a recent bar low etc. More then likely I would have a full take profit not too much higher though since this pair has been relatively choppy. Again this would probably be a watch and trail type situation at least initially.

-Mike

also i should make mention that the 1.6 sits up high on the bar which I love. Really helps to have that area to protect and defend with and use as the battle line so to speak
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  #50584  
Old Jan 1, 2010 1:47pm
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Hi!

First of all Happy New Year to everyone!

Im a new member to this forum, well i've been following this thread for about a month now and decided to reigster to FF.

I've been trading on demo since August 08 and recently opened my first real account.

Like i said before i followed this thread the for last month and you guys have taught me a lot. With every new post i learn something new, so i would like to thank you all, especially James16 who created this thread which helps new useres like me to learn how to trade profitably.
welcome PP glad to hear you are doing well

happy new year to you too

Mike
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  #50585  
Old Jan 1, 2010 1:50pm
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Hi Guys,
I am trading daily PB's. I am having a bit of trouble "trading with the trend". If I am looking at the daily chart and price is in an upwards trend, but is, for example, downwards on the weely chart. What would I define as the trend to "trade with"?

Another problem is that I think I am putting too many s&r lines on my charts, resuting in me taking PB set-ups off weaker s&r lines. How can I dilute these to show the best? Is there a point where there are too many s&r lines on a chart?

All help appreciated.
I really like keeping it simple with the trend. If price is going up or moving from bot left to top right you are trending up. I also like to keep trends and timeframes independent. You can have an uptrend on the 4hr and a downtrend on the daily etc. I focus on one timeframe at a time and don't let the others cloud my judgment too much.

As for s/r and too many lines. I always say start of with the clear obvious areas. And slowly work your way towards using the smaller areas for trading or trade mgmt. Always start from the easiest and don't try to do too much at once. I think this is the best way forward IMO. For example take the biggest most obvious bars at the best areas. I think too many people in general, just try to trade and trade and do too much.

Keep it simple in the new year
Mike
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  #50588  
Old Jan 1, 2010 2:44pm
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Hello mike, my chart standard for now is a horizontal line drawn on every round number counting in increments of 100 pips. Also drawn are weekly PPZ's based on the last 300 or so weekly bars. Is this a good standard? Too much? Thanks.
Hey Dan

You are going to have a lot of lines on your charts. I personally do keep lines at every 500 pips of big round numbers. This is a personal preference. 100 would be too many lines for me to have looking at my charts. As for how many weekly bars, I really don't give it a set number too me it is just a look.

Best
Mike
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  #50618  
Old Jan 3, 2010 3:53pm
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May I ask a simple question.

What is the difference between buy stop and buy limit, or sell stop and sell limit?

P
Hey Peter

A buy stop is above current market price(and is just a market order all stop orders are market orders).

A buy limit is buying below market price.

A sell stop is selling below market price(or for example say we are selling short on a break below a bearish pin we would place a sell stop below the low).

A sell limit , is selling above market price.

Limit order is getting the price you want OR better. Where as the stop orders are market price and you get ANY price just get me in the market.

Best
Mike
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  #50620  
Old Jan 3, 2010 4:11pm
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Thanks Mike.

I have another question if you don't mind.

What is normal, mini and micro account? Is it related to how much each pip is valued?

P
Standard = 10$ per pip
Mini = 1$ per pip
Micro = 10cents per pip

Best
Mike
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  #50624  
Old Jan 3, 2010 4:26pm
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I also realize that my involvement with the thread is a one way process, ie, I am only taking and not giving. Therefore a heartfelt thanks for taking the trouble to answer. (Mike and others)
ah but that is where you are wrong. By asking questions you are giving b/c others need those answers too

Mike
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  #50659  
Old Jan 4, 2010 12:58pm
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Originally Posted by ninreznor View Post
Is there a preferred time of when to open/close the daily bars? As of now mine open/close at Midnight CST. I would prefer not having to be up so late to have to enter a trade.

Would the bars o/c at say 6:00 am CST affect James' trading methods?
Hey Nin

Most of us tend to use what we are comfortable with. So generally speaking from 5pm-8pm est is where most of us land. I like to have an earlier close, close to NY close, so I use a 5pm one.

Best
Mike
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  #50674  
Old Jan 4, 2010 5:14pm
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Originally Posted by nickypon View Post
sorry, forgot the chart
Too tight of an area for me to play in personally(although many love this for a quick hit).

But I love how the .9k mark is right in the middle there. Gives us a lot of options for breakout plays as well as straight PA area

Mike
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  #50675  
Old Jan 4, 2010 5:17pm
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Originally Posted by ninreznor View Post
I have another question. I understand what a pin bar is but is a pin bar not a pin bar until both eyes are completed? In James pdf on the PB's he advocated entering the PB 10 pips below the low/high of the PB. What happens if the 2nd eye retraces 75% of the PB? Say on a bearish PB it goes 20 pips below the PB low right at the opening of the daily bar and then goes up 75% up the PB where u now have two bars extending way past the original eye. Do you no longer have a PB?
Hey Nin

Those PDFs were made by someone who reads this thread, they are unofficial for sure.

We do not have to wait for the second eye to form. The bar after the pin is going to be our trigger bar most of the time. So after our pin forms say to go short, we would place our order below that pin. Now you can also play it on a retrace or on the close but that gets a bit more advanced and I would advocate waiting till you can play them the traditional way first. A pin is also not valid until the low breaks(for a bearish pin).

Take care
Mike
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  #50676  
Old Jan 4, 2010 5:18pm
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Originally Posted by relict07 View Post
Hi everyone

After reading this thread for the past month, I finally mustered up the courage to post on this thread (Everybody sounds so advanced)

One question I have is about demoing. I want to get extra practice in, and I was wondering if there is a computer program that allows you to trade past data like a normal demo account (with a faster time) other than just pressing F12 on meta4 and writing down on paper.

Thank You Everyone for this thread especially Jim and Mike, I love all of your posts.
Welcome Relict and happy new year hope to see you posting more
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  #50773  
Old Jan 5, 2010 12:58pm
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Originally Posted by est1958 View Post
can we consider that it pinbar ---
Hey EST

If we combined all those bars we would get a 9hr pinbar. Many people do this, because they know that the price bars are merely the trigger and it is LOCATION that is the most important. I would caution against this in your early stages and sticking to looking for the traditional one bar patter that James teaches as the pin. This will prevent a lot of overtrading that combining all bars can lead to without a further understanding of the best areas to trade them out.

Take care
Mike
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  #50785  
Old Jan 5, 2010 2:14pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Another one of my kindergarden questions:

Different pairs have different no. of decimals points.
Is a pip always the last decimal point?

P
Hey P

No for some pairs they track to another decimal for fractions.

Pairs like euro 1.4555 format the last is the pip. But if you ever see 5 decimals that last place is a fraction of a pip to give more accuracy to where price is. So if price has gone from 1.4555 to 1.4556 it went up 1 pip.

So then for a pair like usd/jpy 90.55, the 5 in that would be the "pip". But if it is 90.556 the 6 is a fraction and the 5 is still your pip. Basically the 4th decimal or the second after the period . So 90.55 to 90.56 is up 1 pip.

Mike
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  #50822  
Old Jan 5, 2010 8:35pm
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Originally Posted by Treefingers View Post
At what point would a trend become a reverisle of major trend. e.g the aud/usd has been in bear trend from Mid Nov after a long uptrend?

Hope that makes sense
This little retracement would never make me think the uptrend is over. As long as price is predominately moving from the bot left to the top right I am thinking uptrend until that changes. Or a very extreme major reversal point gets put in where we could potentially call a top. The good thing is we really don't need to decipher when it changes to be correct most of the time.

Best
MIke
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  #50825  
Old Jan 5, 2010 9:06pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
That's a very small bar following a very big bar, heading into some heavy traffic.
yeah agreed. I think these bars aren't very much to get excited over. Maybe eventually some people get to the point they know how to be nimble. But if you aren't profitable, I think these should be avoided all the time, simply b/c the easier ones are around the corner

Mike
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  #50869  
Old Jan 6, 2010 1:42pm
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Originally Posted by ninreznor View Post
I keep hearing talk of PPZ but I dont know what it means. Can someone elaborate?
hey Nin

PPZ= Price Pivot zone

It is a flip between support and resistance

This should get you started
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Best
Mike
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  #50887  
Old Jan 6, 2010 5:59pm
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Thanks Dan and B(you crack me up dude)



all kudos to the big guy for creating a place where we feel comfortable to share and prosper together
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  #50896  
Old Jan 6, 2010 8:05pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Hey Jim, (Jarroo) are you still with us or have you moved beyond?
yes I have been trying to get in touch with him. I hope everything is ok and he is just on vacation
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  #50897  
Old Jan 6, 2010 8:06pm
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Originally Posted by pinero_fx View Post
Hey,

This is a great thread. I'm picking up so much and this seems to be a great place to learn.

I was reding through the thread and I saw a post where there was a great index of crucial posts in the thread...I think it was by jduester, but now I cannot for the life of me find it again.

Can someone link me please?

Thanks.
Welcome pine
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  #50920  
Old Jan 6, 2010 11:07pm
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Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hi all,

ECHF 4hr Pinbar

1. Important PPZ at 1.4800
2. Strong Divergence,
3. Nice pin bar size

First trouble area: 1.4850.

Do you guys like it?

PM
Hey PM

This one isn't horrible, I just don't like the time of day it occurred. Except for the divergence we don't have much reason as to why it is getting held up. I think Jarroos "fast break" or cut out would be in play on this one.

Mike
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  #50927  
Old Jan 7, 2010 12:12am
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Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hello Mike,

I found 1.4800 is a strong support when I look at weekly chart and it does show quite some resistence around year 2002 and as support around 2009. Do you think it ok to consider the ppz is strong enough? I just found it could be a good support, can you share your view point on this?

Thanks!

PM
Hey PM

I don't really see 1.48 as all that significant to be honest. Not that it might not hold, but my frame of reference for this size of a pin on the h4 is going to be relative to what has recently took place, which is a sharp hard fall. So I don't really want to call a bottom based on a 4hr pinbar of that size that formed at a bad time of day. For me these can lead to trouble where you see a slight rebound before a new move lower.

Again that is just how I read into things

Mike
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  #50982  
Old Jan 7, 2010 11:55am
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Hi Hova,

We want our pin bars to be nice and prominent, when scrutinizing pin bars always compare the size of the pin bar with the preceding bars. For the pin bar to be of any real value it must at least be as long as the preceding bars.

You can clearly see those large BEBs formulating that bear run, we want a super super good pin bar to convince us to beat the odds of going against such a dominant trend, and any such bar will have to be sufficiently bigger then the bar you pointed out.

cheers.

EDIT: chart 1: real chart...
bookmark this post folks, this will save you months of headaches
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  #50991  
Old Jan 7, 2010 1:02pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
So when the order enters, if the price moves 1 pip so does the stop loss. Is this correct?
yep every pip it goes in your favor, SL moves up 1 pip.
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  #51009  
Old Jan 7, 2010 4:42pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
Hi Mike,

Not sure you'll read this but I thought I'd ask anyway.

I remember reading on the thread about how new traders go through a series of stages, like stages of development.

Can you expand on that?

P
phew that would be a huge rant. I wish I could find a post of mine and also another post someone made(may have been diallist) about this topic.

Basically the stages are huge and numerous but I will try to be brief and general.

Most people start of green as the grass, trying everything under the sun. Putting every indicator on the chart etc. I am going to skip this rant b/c if you are here reading this I believe you are past that or close to it.

Then comes the absorption period. Reading and reading and just learning. But learning is not doing. But this phase is absolutly necessary. The need to learn and knowing there is MORE out there. This is usually when we first say. Sh%t. There is more to this then I thought. Maybe I better buckle up. This is hugely important. Many are at this stage reading this thread. I know this part, it is exciting, yet very straining.

Then comes the action part. You start to put the pieces together. Not in a very coherent way. This is usually the person(keep in context of this thread), who sits down opens their chart at their convenience, sees any old pinbar(b/c hey I read a few pages about it over at j16) and fires off. They might win they might lose. This person is ahead of the very first stage, but they still have no idea how much more work comes in.

Remember each stage lasts very different for each person. Sometimes we move up and down the ladder too, not uncommon. Next is the stage where the "trader" from above says "wow there is more then just finding a pin". They scratch their heads, get fed up usually. Try not to believe it. Maybe even go back to some fancy indicator. Leave price for awhile but if smart enough return to realize for hopefully the last time. There is NO holy grail and it still takes work(see having a business mentality). This person gets back to studying, digging deeper. Re-reading material that they see some glimmer of light from.

Now that trader gets back to it. They start to develop a PLAN. WHOO! This person I am very excited for b/c you gave yourself a chance. They realize this is a game of probabilities, they need money mgmt, get their head right, and have some method to the madness. This can be a very very long stage. Most people it is. Some get lucky and fast track this to some profitable trading. I think of this as the b/e stage.

The stages beyond this differ. Some people just need to fix a few things(usually mental) to get things right. Some just are over trading, not being patient(which funny enough I just wrote a little "rant" over on the PF maybe I will post in supplement to this). ETC etc. This stage continues with learning, we never stop learning and growing and developing as a trader. Some will get to this point(or at each stage), realize it wasn't what they expected and quit. No big deal. This isn't life and death. If you gave yourself a chance and decide it isn't for you, there are a million other things out there I am sure you can and will be great at. I could prob go on and on here about different things, but I think you get the idea.

This is extremely rough idea of what "stages" their are. I just type what I have on my mind so I probably will come back and add somethings or take away. I just wanted to give you something to chew on.

Mike
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  #51011  
Old Jan 7, 2010 4:46pm
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Originally Posted by PeterPan View Post
I make one good trade. Then I'm taken over by enthusiasm and I make 3 bad trades.

Thank God I'm on demo.

ok man some people are going to want to punch me b/c I know my rants are long. But I will post this other one I just made today. This was the patience one I said I put in the PF.

Please remember these are just my thoughts and don't take anything personal anyone.


_____________________________

I probably will go over a few topics that are almost psychological and I will preface them all by saying. If you have not yet spent a great deal of time in fijis corner, you are doing yourself the biggest disfavor I know. Most people think once you have the tools you can become a good trader. This is false. The tools are one component. It is not a myth that so many people you probably look up to say things like "it is what is b/w your ears that stops so many" or "I knew what to do for so long but I got in my own way" etc etc.

So I can just tell you be patient but what does that mean. Well I will talk about my own patience and how my trading evolved.

I can remember a point where I was more or less breaking even with certain things. It was very frustrating to have good days followed by bad days, and Friday would come and I would be no better off then Monday. Deep down I knew it was my lack of patience. A decent setup would appear(based on my methods at the time) and I would trade it. I knew it wasn't the best but thought it was good enough. It probably still was good enough. The problem is when you take enough of the "decent" setups that two things happen.

1. You mismanage these trades and you end up taking more losers. What I mean is that while the trades might still be good enough for some, you still have to manage them properly. I believe at the time I wasn't good enough to do this.

2. The variance of losing/winning comes in. What happens is maybe in the long run taking these decent trades you can come out on top, but the short term variance of losing is so psychologically detrimental that I found it not worth it.

Losing traders always ask me if I had to do it ALL over again what would I do. Part of me always wants to say I would do everything the same. Because the journey no matter how rough or bad some of it was , was still what makes you who you are. But of course if I could go all the way back I wish I would do certain things different. One of the biggest things I wish I could have understood is how RIDICULOUSLY important patience is. When you sit down and if you feel any butterflies feelings of I HAVE TO BE IN, anything like that you are simply not in the right state of mind. This makes you short term results oriented. IMO this is a bad thing. Now of course we are human and are feelings will come out(they still do for me, I am not going to lie). But there is a difference when you get to the point that you recognize it and shake it off fast, vs someone who is just so high on trading it distracts them from what their bigger goals should be(or even might be).

So maybe that is all repetitive, and I think to some degree there will be people reading this saying, "yeah I need to stop doing this or that, and tighten the screws". But the fact was for me until I literally said I WILL BE MORE PATIENT. And had it as the priority every time I sat down I was not. I still believe I need to be more patient and picky. Many of you know I don't trade a very large account yet. I am fine with this as my goals are treating this as a business and planning for the future. I want to be prepared for the days when my account is huge. I think everything James say is true and have experienced it even with my growth. So are you preparing for your future? Or are you still doing things to stunt your growth. If you know the answer then ACT on the answer. Sure it isn't instantaneous but I guarantee you will see improvement and you build from there.

I cringe sometimes when I see some people doing the same things over and over. They will then come back and say I KNOW I NEED TO DO XYZ. Yet they continue to not. I always say you either beat yourself up long enough and quit or you beat yourself up and change. Even small changes are better then none. I get the must psyched when those few people msg me about how they are now battling with the fact they have gotten so picky. The reason being is b/c I know they have a chance at this. B/C sure they wont be increasing their accounts by wild % every month, but they can grow that way. It is very hard not to make money on the very best bars. I think most of us agree on that. So why doesn't everyone losing build from that point?

So why am I talking about this now. Well a lot has to do with the last few months, both for my trading and others. When holidays run around we can usually trade less(which is what almost every trader I respect I see do), or we continue to trade just to trade. Then after the holidays we have that urge to get back in it. Believe me I do. I almost feel lazy from the holidays, sluggish from all the beer and food. But just pulling the trigger doesn't equate to the +EV we are looking for in the long run. Pulling the trigger to our methods will. My goal for this year, to become even more picky. Will i sacrifice ROI%. Most definitely. I did last year, and the year before. But will I gain a lot more for the future of my business? I know I will.

So are you being patient?
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  #51012  
Old Jan 7, 2010 4:47pm
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ok now I am winded and sick of myself for a bit
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  #51031  
Old Jan 7, 2010 9:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by row View Post
i have been following this forum for a while but never post before and just by reading whats here i have learn so much and i am seriously thinking about joining james16 private forum as well. I was just now looking at the aud/usd and i remember mike said that your reversal bar should be about the same size as the previous bars given its a strong trend.......looking at the daily bar for aud/usd i was wondering if that is a good pin bar for a short.
Hey Row welcome to our little spot

here was my response to someone else regarding this bar

This is one of those bars again that most people are probably going to take or be tempted to take. I can see some people coming out as losers, some b/e and some winners. I will not be trading this as I don't see a real reason for a reversal here and the size of the bar with that makes me not very interested. I agree the prior bars low or into the .9100 area(remember not to the pip) it should make. But I would also treat this as if it doesn't break hard or breaks and retraces too much to get out. Again lack of confluence just has me not all that interested with that size bar.

Again just based on my methods
Mike
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  #51037  
Old Jan 7, 2010 9:51pm
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I know you are a busy man mike but just want to ask you a quick question when looking for confluence do you just look to your imediate left?.......how far to your left do you look for confluence? if you are looking for a reversal bar where would be a good location ?
Hey Row

Tough question to give a one line answer too. Generally speaking I am more concerned with the more recent action. Say last 200 bars or so, but that doesn't mean I don't look further back, and or even less then that. I know that doesn't really give a great answer. If you have specific examples be sure to post I can be more specific in regards to what I see personally

Best
Mike
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  #51047  
Old Jan 7, 2010 10:12pm
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Originally Posted by marcelnyo View Post

My question is a specific one, back then from my own prespective, it's hard to believe that account size changes will affect one's trade, although it's starting to make sense now from the "what we want to do and what we've found good at doing are two very different things" mind frame, would you mind sharing some of your experience with this one Mike? maybe you can finally make me clear my head although from my post it seems like I'm answering my own question...

Thanks a Lot

M.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Btw, if you don't mind me asking, how does decreasing your ROI% line up with your long term goals? Don't quite get that one.

I am going to answer both of these in one. Most people who have a higher ROI have a higher Drawdown and thus a higher fluctuating in equity curve. My goal is to grow and smooth that curve out. As my account has grown the fluctuations can feel more harsh b/c this is where $ and size of account do matter. Everyone says that $ shouldn't change what you do, and yes this is true. But at 10$ a pip or 1000$ a pip things change. When you are trading 1$ a pip things don't seem all that bad one way or the other. You can deal with that 20-30% drawdown. But when you are trading 100$ a pip, that 20-30% drawdown starts becoming some serious money. So while I don't want people to trade based on money, at the same time the logistics of things sometimes change. So sacrificing ROI for a smoother curve is fine in my book. There are different ways to smooth your curve out(having variety of methods, different investments outside forex, etc).

Just some more thoughts, and I appreciate all the nice comments but just want to say again these are my thoughts and that is all

Mike
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  #51048  
Old Jan 7, 2010 10:16pm
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Originally Posted by row View Post
Take a look at this gbp/chf daily chart mike are those area good confluence and the bar with the arrow below i thought that was a good PA bar for a long unless i miss something
Hey Row

You are close here. What I see is strong pressure to the downside, then we consolidated, broke out and pulled back. Notice where price stalled right at former breakout area. Trading the BUOB long is trading into all this mess here. Now if this same BUOB had a much lower low I would consider trading it as it would have fully tested the flow under the 1.65 area where we had the most recent up move. But because of that lack of testing underneath + trading into this area, it is a pass. Finally and maybe most important is the date of the bat 12/30. Trading the day before the last day of the year is more or less gambling in my eyes.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #51049  
Old Jan 7, 2010 10:17pm
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Originally Posted by Flem26 View Post
Oh and to answer your question, yeah I think so. Haven't taken a trade all year. Interested to see how the big boys play this news noise in the morning . . .
I think it will set things off and set the tone to get the action going for the coming weeks At least hopefully volatility picks up

And same here

Mike
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  #51106  
Old Jan 8, 2010 1:54pm
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Originally Posted by takingthepip View Post
A Happy New Year to All from Icebound Ireland!

It's been 3 months since I started with the J16 thread and I'm pleased to say that my account was slightly ahead at the end of the year by around 5% simply by becoming more selective and patient and only taking Pinbar setups on higher timeframes.

(I think that justifies changing my subtitle from "Beginner" to "Breaking Even").



I'm still making silly mistakes though.

A rush of blood to my head saw me taking 4 losing H4 PB trades in one day which brought me back to just below break even...
AWESOME!!
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  #51107  
Old Jan 8, 2010 1:54pm
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Originally Posted by ppfx View Post
mike i think that everyone on this forum is dying to read wisdoms you write for instance when i see that you have written something i take my time, concentrate and read carefully what you say and thank you very much for taking your time and helping new traders to become more successful

Thank you very much and have a great weekend
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  #51113  
Old Jan 8, 2010 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Hey Mike... why is J16 in the commercial forum?
Mr T ! MY MAN!

Long time no see bud.

B/C Jim offers a service they decided we should be in a forum with those offering any type of service instead of recognizing that FF was pretty much built with J16 as a staple attracting traders. No time to be upset on a friday though many new traders still gaining from the j16 footprints!

Happy new year bud and hope all is well

Mike
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  #51117  
Old Jan 8, 2010 11:23pm
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Originally Posted by relict07 View Post
As a newb who recently joined in, I've read about Merlin being the "Grand Maestro" of FF and was wondering what happened to him?

It looked like as if he just vanished into thin air after building up this great forum since early part of the decade.
Merlin is a bright man, buy low, SELL high

I miss him for sure and thank him for so much. Not to long ago it was a different atmosphere that I was sure as hell lucky to step into at the right time. Thankfully we still have some old timers floating around here(but miss the big guns smjones, darkstar, merlin and the others).
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  #51121  
Old Jan 9, 2010 4:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Wow - I've been busy this week and missed this....
Thank you sir

If it brings you to come out and post here then it was worth it
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  #51164  
Old Jan 10, 2010 4:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
I would like some feedback on my analysis of Silver to go long.

The setup is a dblhc off a round number.

Pros:
Matching bar lows
Off PPZ
Off 18.00 Round Number
In direction of long-term trend (not shown)

Cons:
Minor traffic to the left

I expect it to get to the 18.90 area before running into trouble.

Did I get this right? Would you take/not take this trade?

Thanks.

-- Danny
Hey Danny

We want to play these bars at swing lows, this is a swing high point. Look for this at a swing low and they are much easier to play.

Hope everyone had a nice weekend I know James did with the Cowboys, but he has to face my Vikings now

Mike
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  #51170  
Old Jan 10, 2010 6:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
For those of us who don't need constant trading action.........
Weekly BEOB
Daily BEOB..........1.5116 target.
I am with you Bryan I like this one too. I am not quite that optimistic with my target though :P

Mike
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  #51171  
Old Jan 10, 2010 6:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
is a 20 point sunday gap open too small to trade?


EDIT: on E/U
Way to small for me. You are playing with very little room for error

Mike
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  #51172  
Old Jan 10, 2010 6:29pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Thanks Mike... I remember James had some charts in his early posts using them as continuation patterns. I see now this is more advanced stuff, so I'll need to focus on the basics.

Great games this weekend if you love underdogs. Everyone have a great week... and many pips.

-- Danny
Yeah I play them both ways, but IMO they are much more difficult to learn as continuations initially and I think the traditional way is easier to pick up.

Again just in my view though

Mike
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  #51175  
Old Jan 10, 2010 7:02pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Mike, if I may ask, why do you like this one that much? Both daily and weekly BEOB are not at swing highs (where we like to see them )
This one would be a continuation play away from the 1.6500 ppz, and a break of the low would be a break of a two bar low. Playing it conservative. Also strong down trend, + a bunch of recent BEOBs. Again a lot is based on the round number, trend, move away from PPZ, and break of the TBL. I don't usually talk continuations in this thread I just think it makes it difficult for people to learn the basics first

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #51228  
Old Jan 11, 2010 1:15pm
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Originally Posted by ekling View Post
I would like some feedback on this trade i took a few hours ago. Its sort of a breakout trade on the EURUSD. Price is atm in this mini range between 365 and 150 MA (blue box). Right above the box we also have round number 1.45000. The overall trend is still up. I decided to try enter on a pullback on the 4 hour chart.
Second bar after breakout was a pinbar and i went long a couple of pips above it. First trouble area should be around the 1.46 and the next one just below the 1.47. TP at 1.4670 in case there will be a sharp move today. Otherwise i...
Hey ekling

That bar is an inside bar not a pinbar. Remember a pin needs to have the nose protruding away from the low of the prior bar. This is a bit hasty IMO. I think you have found an excellent area(that I am watching quite closely to). But to me a bar like this doesn't really give us much information. What would be nice(if you want to play a continuation) would be if we had a huge buob that tested the upper range of that boxed consolidation and then closed above 1.45. Just be patient for better bars and you will be fine

Best
Mike
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  #51294  
Old Jan 12, 2010 5:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gasgas View Post
I see guys trading here...Me still waiting for a first valid trade in 2010. Can one become to picky?
I don't think so

I just took a trade on eur/gbp, very large BEOB + divergence + Big Round number

Quick profit


Mike
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  #51360  
Old Jan 12, 2010 2:09pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Not any better then yourself or anybody in this thread, trust me.

We just might process information differently....., for now.




No, the other talked about why, when and how......
I'll check rac's archives when time permits.
There are much better vids (by Jim & Mike) on j16 site in a guest section.
we'll get Mark to do some more videos one of these days
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  #51361  
Old Jan 12, 2010 2:10pm
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Originally Posted by Bocajunior View Post
Hey folks,
It's not forex but a stock chart of Procter Gamble. A real nice pin! At a PPZ and 60.00 round number.

Cheers
Boca
Yep was talking to someone about that, real nice!

Mike
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  #51362  
Old Jan 12, 2010 2:15pm
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Originally Posted by hijackxx View Post
Nice one, Mike. A quick question, do you wait for price to break the low of BEUB before you enter, or do you directly trade at the open of the next bar? Thanks.

Mairza
Hey Mairza

It was a few pips below the low

Best
Mike
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  #51364  
Old Jan 12, 2010 2:17pm
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I know this is off topic, but does anyone have a way to contact Jarroo. It has been very long and this is not like him. Maybe someone has a personal email he has not answered PMs on here or the PF and I am worried at this point
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  #51514  
Old Jan 14, 2010 12:38am
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Originally Posted by altrader View Post
I'm just wondering if someone could please have a lot at the image below and try to see how to handle this conflict of signals and how the James16 method would deal with it.
Hey Al

Careful here, on that second bar. For it to be a DBLHC the close must be HIGHER then the previous bars high. As for conflicting signals, it really depends on the type of trade. For me if I believe strongly enough I will probably not let it discourage but I may move my stop down and reduce my risk on the trade.

Best
Mike
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  #51517  
Old Jan 14, 2010 1:32am
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Originally Posted by altrader View Post
Thanks for your detailed response Mike. I'm new to this thread and see that there is so much information to go through.

Cheers
Altrader
yep grab a coffee :P Welcome
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  #51587  
Old Jan 14, 2010 8:03pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Sorry I didn't get back to you right away Aaron. I had some time off this Thankgiving and Christmas. Catching up with Family, Friends and . . . . . . . . Life.

I's goood to be back.

Wow, I got some reading to do. lol


Jim
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  #51589  
Old Jan 14, 2010 8:11pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Tell me you took this classic, A+, golden, GOLD Weekly PB, Mike.

This one was a rare Mike "yes" in my book.

Its good to be back brother.
sure did that is ABC j16 right there
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