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  #45039  
Old Oct 1, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
the charts
Hey Ezz

Notice on the eur/cad how choppy and messy things have been overall not only for a long time but also in the recent(orange line area). All that choppy mess means tough trading into, because price has shown over and over again a reason to chop around it. Now we had a big BEOB off the 1.6 big ppz. Which for some would be enough to trade through . Not for me on a pair like this. Space basically shows you how far to the trouble zones, or the likely zones. I marked the space area off in blue. Notice everytime space runs out we hit a bigger trouble area. This doesn't mean other things within that space can't give our trades trouble or should be overlooked. But it helps put things in perspective.

Best
Mike
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  #45045  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I took all three of these trades myself (against GBP) on the pins, and got stopped out on all three. I know in this thread it's generally discussion of future and current trades, but for the life of me, I don't see any "reason" they all reversed. It's bothering me and would really appreciate some feedback. Is it just a 3x bad read against 3 other currencies (USD, EUR, CHF)? Just one of the times that a good read goes bad? Someone, please shed some light on this for me?
Hey Alyehoud

I assume you are talking about the daily bars, so let me break them down for you.

Gbp/chf - Not at a swing high where want these bars. This is at a swing low, and sitting above the 1.65. This would be a continuation pin which I personally never play and not taught by j16. If one is going to sell this we can see the low of the pin is right above 1.65 sell would have to go below that. This barely broke and any sort of buffer would keep you out of this trade. High has not been taken out so this is not invalidated yet.

Eur/gbp - again this is at a swing high, no space created. We want a bullish pin at a swing low. When you trade them at these very swing highs you are trading right into trouble everytime(see blue box). Small bar also = no trade
Low has not broken yet so this is still alive technically speaking.

gbp/usd - the best of all the continuation pins since it closed under the 1.600 level and could be looked at as a breakout + pullback typep trade. Again this is not where we want pins. We want bullish pins at swing high points this is a swing low point which means we are trading right into trouble.

Hopefully you can see these are all at the wrong place j16 style. If not let me know

Best
Mike
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  #45039  
Old Oct 1, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
the charts
Hey Ezz

Notice on the eur/cad how choppy and messy things have been overall not only for a long time but also in the recent(orange line area). All that choppy mess means tough trading into, because price has shown over and over again a reason to chop around it. Now we had a big BEOB off the 1.6 big ppz. Which for some would be enough to trade through . Not for me on a pair like this. Space basically shows you how far to the trouble zones, or the likely zones. I marked the space area off in blue. Notice everytime space runs out we hit a bigger trouble area. This doesn't mean other things within that space can't give our trades trouble or should be overlooked. But it helps put things in perspective.

Best
Mike
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  #45045  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I took all three of these trades myself (against GBP) on the pins, and got stopped out on all three. I know in this thread it's generally discussion of future and current trades, but for the life of me, I don't see any "reason" they all reversed. It's bothering me and would really appreciate some feedback. Is it just a 3x bad read against 3 other currencies (USD, EUR, CHF)? Just one of the times that a good read goes bad? Someone, please shed some light on this for me?
Hey Alyehoud

I assume you are talking about the daily bars, so let me break them down for you.

Gbp/chf - Not at a swing high where want these bars. This is at a swing low, and sitting above the 1.65. This would be a continuation pin which I personally never play and not taught by j16. If one is going to sell this we can see the low of the pin is right above 1.65 sell would have to go below that. This barely broke and any sort of buffer would keep you out of this trade. High has not been taken out so this is not invalidated yet.

Eur/gbp - again this is at a swing high, no space created. We want a bullish pin at a swing low. When you trade them at these very swing highs you are trading right into trouble everytime(see blue box). Small bar also = no trade
Low has not broken yet so this is still alive technically speaking.

gbp/usd - the best of all the continuation pins since it closed under the 1.600 level and could be looked at as a breakout + pullback typep trade. Again this is not where we want pins. We want bullish pins at swing high points this is a swing low point which means we are trading right into trouble.

Hopefully you can see these are all at the wrong place j16 style. If not let me know

Best
Mike
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  #45039  
Old Oct 1, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
the charts
Hey Ezz

Notice on the eur/cad how choppy and messy things have been overall not only for a long time but also in the recent(orange line area). All that choppy mess means tough trading into, because price has shown over and over again a reason to chop around it. Now we had a big BEOB off the 1.6 big ppz. Which for some would be enough to trade through . Not for me on a pair like this. Space basically shows you how far to the trouble zones, or the likely zones. I marked the space area off in blue. Notice everytime space runs out we hit a bigger trouble area. This doesn't mean other things within that space can't give our trades trouble or should be overlooked. But it helps put things in perspective.

Best
Mike
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  #45045  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:05pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I took all three of these trades myself (against GBP) on the pins, and got stopped out on all three. I know in this thread it's generally discussion of future and current trades, but for the life of me, I don't see any "reason" they all reversed. It's bothering me and would really appreciate some feedback. Is it just a 3x bad read against 3 other currencies (USD, EUR, CHF)? Just one of the times that a good read goes bad? Someone, please shed some light on this for me?
Hey Alyehoud

I assume you are talking about the daily bars, so let me break them down for you.

Gbp/chf - Not at a swing high where want these bars. This is at a swing low, and sitting above the 1.65. This would be a continuation pin which I personally never play and not taught by j16. If one is going to sell this we can see the low of the pin is right above 1.65 sell would have to go below that. This barely broke and any sort of buffer would keep you out of this trade. High has not been taken out so this is not invalidated yet.

Eur/gbp - again this is at a swing high, no space created. We want a bullish pin at a swing low. When you trade them at these very swing highs you are trading right into trouble everytime(see blue box). Small bar also = no trade
Low has not broken yet so this is still alive technically speaking.

gbp/usd - the best of all the continuation pins since it closed under the 1.600 level and could be looked at as a breakout + pullback typep trade. Again this is not where we want pins. We want bullish pins at swing high points this is a swing low point which means we are trading right into trouble.

Hopefully you can see these are all at the wrong place j16 style. If not let me know

Best
Mike
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  #45039  
Old Oct 1, 2009 12:26pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
the charts
Hey Ezz

Notice on the eur/cad how choppy and messy things have been overall not only for a long time but also in the recent(orange line area). All that choppy mess means tough trading into, because price has shown over and over again a reason to chop around it. Now we had a big BEOB off the 1.6 big ppz. Which for some would be enough to trade through . Not for me on a pair like this. Space basically shows you how far to the trouble zones, or the likely zones. I marked the space area off in blue. Notice everytime space runs out we hit a bigger trouble area. This doesn't mean other things within that space can't give our trades trouble or should be overlooked. But it helps put things in perspective.

Best
Mike
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  #45045  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:05pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I took all three of these trades myself (against GBP) on the pins, and got stopped out on all three. I know in this thread it's generally discussion of future and current trades, but for the life of me, I don't see any "reason" they all reversed. It's bothering me and would really appreciate some feedback. Is it just a 3x bad read against 3 other currencies (USD, EUR, CHF)? Just one of the times that a good read goes bad? Someone, please shed some light on this for me?
Hey Alyehoud

I assume you are talking about the daily bars, so let me break them down for you.

Gbp/chf - Not at a swing high where want these bars. This is at a swing low, and sitting above the 1.65. This would be a continuation pin which I personally never play and not taught by j16. If one is going to sell this we can see the low of the pin is right above 1.65 sell would have to go below that. This barely broke and any sort of buffer would keep you out of this trade. High has not been taken out so this is not invalidated yet.

Eur/gbp - again this is at a swing high, no space created. We want a bullish pin at a swing low. When you trade them at these very swing highs you are trading right into trouble everytime(see blue box). Small bar also = no trade
Low has not broken yet so this is still alive technically speaking.

gbp/usd - the best of all the continuation pins since it closed under the 1.600 level and could be looked at as a breakout + pullback typep trade. Again this is not where we want pins. We want bullish pins at swing high points this is a swing low point which means we are trading right into trouble.

Hopefully you can see these are all at the wrong place j16 style. If not let me know

Best
Mike
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  #45051  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Fully agree.
Also, do you know anyone who is as picky as Mike??
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  #45056  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:44pm
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Answers below

Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I'm not sure how I managed to miss that - no continuation pins? Theoretically you should be able to get more out of a continuation pin than a fade, unless you get in on the trend-change pin, no? What's the logic?
Depends on the situation, anything and everything can/can not give pips. Playing as continuation again it comes down to location which is tougher to get the hang of then playing them as James16 teaches at swing highs and lows. My recommendation is to only play them as j16 teaches prior to expanding that.

Quote:
All three of the pins I played, on the dailies, were continuations pins.

And, just to verify what your saying versus what I've been reading from a pdf set posted in the first quarter of the thread on pinbars - you set the SL to 100% of the bar? I've been generally using ~61.8% as it seems to recommend, too conservative? Sometimes I've been using the high of the previous bar, or even any strong S/R lines. I've honestly had good results until now, but I got absolutely killed on these three trades so I needed to see why.
That pdf is not official j16. That was created by someone who reads this thread long ago. So please refer to james16 posts specifically for his method. Most people read that to get a gist of what it is we do.

A pin is not valid till its low or high breaks. And a pin is not invalidated until its low or high breaks. I always set my stop above the high or below the low of a pinbar. If you want to use the 61.8 I am not going to say it is wrong if it is tested and proven to work for you.

Quote:
And a third thing that I've read conflicting info on which may have contributed to this blunder - to officially be a true pinbar, does it have to open and close within the previous bar's open/close, or anywhere within the body, including shadows?
The open and close must only be within the prior bar anywhere. I prefer it within the prior bars body

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45051  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:27pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Fully agree.
Also, do you know anyone who is as picky as Mike??
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  #45056  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:44pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Answers below

Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I'm not sure how I managed to miss that - no continuation pins? Theoretically you should be able to get more out of a continuation pin than a fade, unless you get in on the trend-change pin, no? What's the logic?
Depends on the situation, anything and everything can/can not give pips. Playing as continuation again it comes down to location which is tougher to get the hang of then playing them as James16 teaches at swing highs and lows. My recommendation is to only play them as j16 teaches prior to expanding that.

Quote:
All three of the pins I played, on the dailies, were continuations pins.

And, just to verify what your saying versus what I've been reading from a pdf set posted in the first quarter of the thread on pinbars - you set the SL to 100% of the bar? I've been generally using ~61.8% as it seems to recommend, too conservative? Sometimes I've been using the high of the previous bar, or even any strong S/R lines. I've honestly had good results until now, but I got absolutely killed on these three trades so I needed to see why.
That pdf is not official j16. That was created by someone who reads this thread long ago. So please refer to james16 posts specifically for his method. Most people read that to get a gist of what it is we do.

A pin is not valid till its low or high breaks. And a pin is not invalidated until its low or high breaks. I always set my stop above the high or below the low of a pinbar. If you want to use the 61.8 I am not going to say it is wrong if it is tested and proven to work for you.

Quote:
And a third thing that I've read conflicting info on which may have contributed to this blunder - to officially be a true pinbar, does it have to open and close within the previous bar's open/close, or anywhere within the body, including shadows?
The open and close must only be within the prior bar anywhere. I prefer it within the prior bars body

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45051  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:27pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Fully agree.
Also, do you know anyone who is as picky as Mike??
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  #45056  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:44pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
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Answers below

Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I'm not sure how I managed to miss that - no continuation pins? Theoretically you should be able to get more out of a continuation pin than a fade, unless you get in on the trend-change pin, no? What's the logic?
Depends on the situation, anything and everything can/can not give pips. Playing as continuation again it comes down to location which is tougher to get the hang of then playing them as James16 teaches at swing highs and lows. My recommendation is to only play them as j16 teaches prior to expanding that.

Quote:
All three of the pins I played, on the dailies, were continuations pins.

And, just to verify what your saying versus what I've been reading from a pdf set posted in the first quarter of the thread on pinbars - you set the SL to 100% of the bar? I've been generally using ~61.8% as it seems to recommend, too conservative? Sometimes I've been using the high of the previous bar, or even any strong S/R lines. I've honestly had good results until now, but I got absolutely killed on these three trades so I needed to see why.
That pdf is not official j16. That was created by someone who reads this thread long ago. So please refer to james16 posts specifically for his method. Most people read that to get a gist of what it is we do.

A pin is not valid till its low or high breaks. And a pin is not invalidated until its low or high breaks. I always set my stop above the high or below the low of a pinbar. If you want to use the 61.8 I am not going to say it is wrong if it is tested and proven to work for you.

Quote:
And a third thing that I've read conflicting info on which may have contributed to this blunder - to officially be a true pinbar, does it have to open and close within the previous bar's open/close, or anywhere within the body, including shadows?
The open and close must only be within the prior bar anywhere. I prefer it within the prior bars body

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45051  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:27pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Fully agree.
Also, do you know anyone who is as picky as Mike??
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  #45056  
Old Oct 1, 2009 1:44pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
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Answers below

Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
I'm not sure how I managed to miss that - no continuation pins? Theoretically you should be able to get more out of a continuation pin than a fade, unless you get in on the trend-change pin, no? What's the logic?
Depends on the situation, anything and everything can/can not give pips. Playing as continuation again it comes down to location which is tougher to get the hang of then playing them as James16 teaches at swing highs and lows. My recommendation is to only play them as j16 teaches prior to expanding that.

Quote:
All three of the pins I played, on the dailies, were continuations pins.

And, just to verify what your saying versus what I've been reading from a pdf set posted in the first quarter of the thread on pinbars - you set the SL to 100% of the bar? I've been generally using ~61.8% as it seems to recommend, too conservative? Sometimes I've been using the high of the previous bar, or even any strong S/R lines. I've honestly had good results until now, but I got absolutely killed on these three trades so I needed to see why.
That pdf is not official j16. That was created by someone who reads this thread long ago. So please refer to james16 posts specifically for his method. Most people read that to get a gist of what it is we do.

A pin is not valid till its low or high breaks. And a pin is not invalidated until its low or high breaks. I always set my stop above the high or below the low of a pinbar. If you want to use the 61.8 I am not going to say it is wrong if it is tested and proven to work for you.

Quote:
And a third thing that I've read conflicting info on which may have contributed to this blunder - to officially be a true pinbar, does it have to open and close within the previous bar's open/close, or anywhere within the body, including shadows?
The open and close must only be within the prior bar anywhere. I prefer it within the prior bars body

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45083  
Old Oct 1, 2009 6:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I totally agree.

He's explanations is how I started and its why I'm still trading profitable today.

Although I may drift to my own style of trading now and again (lol) but Mike's teachings and examples are the best foundation to learn and understand what we do here.

His posts are a must read. (All Of Them)

Jim
you all humble me thank you but all credit to the big guy J16, none of this without him. I fwd my thank yous to him

Mike
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  #45083  
Old Oct 1, 2009 6:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I totally agree.

He's explanations is how I started and its why I'm still trading profitable today.

Although I may drift to my own style of trading now and again (lol) but Mike's teachings and examples are the best foundation to learn and understand what we do here.

His posts are a must read. (All Of Them)

Jim
you all humble me thank you but all credit to the big guy J16, none of this without him. I fwd my thank yous to him

Mike
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  #45083  
Old Oct 1, 2009 6:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
Resident Elmer Fudd
 
Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I totally agree.

He's explanations is how I started and its why I'm still trading profitable today.

Although I may drift to my own style of trading now and again (lol) but Mike's teachings and examples are the best foundation to learn and understand what we do here.

His posts are a must read. (All Of Them)

Jim
you all humble me thank you but all credit to the big guy J16, none of this without him. I fwd my thank yous to him

Mike
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  #45083  
Old Oct 1, 2009 6:04pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I totally agree.

He's explanations is how I started and its why I'm still trading profitable today.

Although I may drift to my own style of trading now and again (lol) but Mike's teachings and examples are the best foundation to learn and understand what we do here.

His posts are a must read. (All Of Them)

Jim
you all humble me thank you but all credit to the big guy J16, none of this without him. I fwd my thank yous to him

Mike
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  #45094  
Old Oct 1, 2009 11:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfharper View Post
Hey Mike,
I got kinda lost on the bold statements above. I'm pretty green on pa and have been trying to learn as quickly as I can...could you please explain a bit more on the above.

Also, I'm thinking about joining "the group," but I don't have a fast internet connection...I am able to download the guest videos, and the webinars I could probably review after they were done and if there were recorded to video...but doubt I would be able to attend. Do you think it would be still valuable to join?
Hey jf

What I was getting at, is that pinbar although technically a pin by itself was at a poor location. We want to see that bar at a swing low, instead of where it was near a swing high.

Notice the area marked in blue with swing low. This is where we want to see a bullish pin bar indicating a long. The area we were at had a great bearish pin at a swing high point.

Some swing points are better then others. We have main swing points and minor swing points. Just like major PPZ and minor PPZ as well. I marked another chart with that just to give some more examples.

As for the group everything is recorded and saved for download and offline viewing. I highly recommend checking out the tour the member area videos to decide if it is right for you. The guest videos give a good idea of the video aspect of what we do inside and then we have a lot of text material etc. Shoot me a PM if you have more questions

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45102  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Your help is much appreciated however i am still a little confused re swing hi/lo , can u show some examples please.

Thanks Gerard
Sure here is a chart with Major and minor swing points. The more minor a swing point by definition the more traffic it will be in and the less room to run to the first trouble areas. That is when we are trading on less minor swing points we have to be aware that the first trouble area should be closer. This doesn't mean that trades don't run from minor swing points, but the best of the best is at the best swing points, that tend to create the biggest runs. Think of the market as moving in waves. Each time it moves in a wave it is putting in a new swing point. Some of these swings are bigger and more standout then others. Just as PPZs major and minor

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45103  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Difference is the Time Frames. Mike was on the Daily, while I was on the 4 Hour. The Daily's space was very closed or trafficy (is that a word) in relation to the setup while the 4 Hour space was very open or less trafficy to the 4 hour setup.

Granted, Mike will require more space for a setup then I might at times, but the important thing here is that there is a good amount of space on a given time frame for that setup.

Am I making sense?

Jim

Yep things can change greatly from timefames.

People are surprised when they see some of the trades I take. They go, I don't get it I see traffic. When I see traffic, that doesn't mean no trade, it usually means to tighten up my trade mgmt plan. Good bars come in many forms and many locations. The key is to learn what makes better locations then others, and what makes better bars then others. Then combine that with trouble areas using s/r, ppz, etc.

Thanks for clarifying for me Jim
Mike
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  #45094  
Old Oct 1, 2009 11:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfharper View Post
Hey Mike,
I got kinda lost on the bold statements above. I'm pretty green on pa and have been trying to learn as quickly as I can...could you please explain a bit more on the above.

Also, I'm thinking about joining "the group," but I don't have a fast internet connection...I am able to download the guest videos, and the webinars I could probably review after they were done and if there were recorded to video...but doubt I would be able to attend. Do you think it would be still valuable to join?
Hey jf

What I was getting at, is that pinbar although technically a pin by itself was at a poor location. We want to see that bar at a swing low, instead of where it was near a swing high.

Notice the area marked in blue with swing low. This is where we want to see a bullish pin bar indicating a long. The area we were at had a great bearish pin at a swing high point.

Some swing points are better then others. We have main swing points and minor swing points. Just like major PPZ and minor PPZ as well. I marked another chart with that just to give some more examples.

As for the group everything is recorded and saved for download and offline viewing. I highly recommend checking out the tour the member area videos to decide if it is right for you. The guest videos give a good idea of the video aspect of what we do inside and then we have a lot of text material etc. Shoot me a PM if you have more questions

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45102  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Your help is much appreciated however i am still a little confused re swing hi/lo , can u show some examples please.

Thanks Gerard
Sure here is a chart with Major and minor swing points. The more minor a swing point by definition the more traffic it will be in and the less room to run to the first trouble areas. That is when we are trading on less minor swing points we have to be aware that the first trouble area should be closer. This doesn't mean that trades don't run from minor swing points, but the best of the best is at the best swing points, that tend to create the biggest runs. Think of the market as moving in waves. Each time it moves in a wave it is putting in a new swing point. Some of these swings are bigger and more standout then others. Just as PPZs major and minor

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45103  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:09am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Difference is the Time Frames. Mike was on the Daily, while I was on the 4 Hour. The Daily's space was very closed or trafficy (is that a word) in relation to the setup while the 4 Hour space was very open or less trafficy to the 4 hour setup.

Granted, Mike will require more space for a setup then I might at times, but the important thing here is that there is a good amount of space on a given time frame for that setup.

Am I making sense?

Jim

Yep things can change greatly from timefames.

People are surprised when they see some of the trades I take. They go, I don't get it I see traffic. When I see traffic, that doesn't mean no trade, it usually means to tighten up my trade mgmt plan. Good bars come in many forms and many locations. The key is to learn what makes better locations then others, and what makes better bars then others. Then combine that with trouble areas using s/r, ppz, etc.

Thanks for clarifying for me Jim
Mike
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  #45094  
Old Oct 1, 2009 11:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfharper View Post
Hey Mike,
I got kinda lost on the bold statements above. I'm pretty green on pa and have been trying to learn as quickly as I can...could you please explain a bit more on the above.

Also, I'm thinking about joining "the group," but I don't have a fast internet connection...I am able to download the guest videos, and the webinars I could probably review after they were done and if there were recorded to video...but doubt I would be able to attend. Do you think it would be still valuable to join?
Hey jf

What I was getting at, is that pinbar although technically a pin by itself was at a poor location. We want to see that bar at a swing low, instead of where it was near a swing high.

Notice the area marked in blue with swing low. This is where we want to see a bullish pin bar indicating a long. The area we were at had a great bearish pin at a swing high point.

Some swing points are better then others. We have main swing points and minor swing points. Just like major PPZ and minor PPZ as well. I marked another chart with that just to give some more examples.

As for the group everything is recorded and saved for download and offline viewing. I highly recommend checking out the tour the member area videos to decide if it is right for you. The guest videos give a good idea of the video aspect of what we do inside and then we have a lot of text material etc. Shoot me a PM if you have more questions

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45102  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Your help is much appreciated however i am still a little confused re swing hi/lo , can u show some examples please.

Thanks Gerard
Sure here is a chart with Major and minor swing points. The more minor a swing point by definition the more traffic it will be in and the less room to run to the first trouble areas. That is when we are trading on less minor swing points we have to be aware that the first trouble area should be closer. This doesn't mean that trades don't run from minor swing points, but the best of the best is at the best swing points, that tend to create the biggest runs. Think of the market as moving in waves. Each time it moves in a wave it is putting in a new swing point. Some of these swings are bigger and more standout then others. Just as PPZs major and minor

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45103  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Difference is the Time Frames. Mike was on the Daily, while I was on the 4 Hour. The Daily's space was very closed or trafficy (is that a word) in relation to the setup while the 4 Hour space was very open or less trafficy to the 4 hour setup.

Granted, Mike will require more space for a setup then I might at times, but the important thing here is that there is a good amount of space on a given time frame for that setup.

Am I making sense?

Jim

Yep things can change greatly from timefames.

People are surprised when they see some of the trades I take. They go, I don't get it I see traffic. When I see traffic, that doesn't mean no trade, it usually means to tighten up my trade mgmt plan. Good bars come in many forms and many locations. The key is to learn what makes better locations then others, and what makes better bars then others. Then combine that with trouble areas using s/r, ppz, etc.

Thanks for clarifying for me Jim
Mike
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  #45094  
Old Oct 1, 2009 11:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfharper View Post
Hey Mike,
I got kinda lost on the bold statements above. I'm pretty green on pa and have been trying to learn as quickly as I can...could you please explain a bit more on the above.

Also, I'm thinking about joining "the group," but I don't have a fast internet connection...I am able to download the guest videos, and the webinars I could probably review after they were done and if there were recorded to video...but doubt I would be able to attend. Do you think it would be still valuable to join?
Hey jf

What I was getting at, is that pinbar although technically a pin by itself was at a poor location. We want to see that bar at a swing low, instead of where it was near a swing high.

Notice the area marked in blue with swing low. This is where we want to see a bullish pin bar indicating a long. The area we were at had a great bearish pin at a swing high point.

Some swing points are better then others. We have main swing points and minor swing points. Just like major PPZ and minor PPZ as well. I marked another chart with that just to give some more examples.

As for the group everything is recorded and saved for download and offline viewing. I highly recommend checking out the tour the member area videos to decide if it is right for you. The guest videos give a good idea of the video aspect of what we do inside and then we have a lot of text material etc. Shoot me a PM if you have more questions

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #45102  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Your help is much appreciated however i am still a little confused re swing hi/lo , can u show some examples please.

Thanks Gerard
Sure here is a chart with Major and minor swing points. The more minor a swing point by definition the more traffic it will be in and the less room to run to the first trouble areas. That is when we are trading on less minor swing points we have to be aware that the first trouble area should be closer. This doesn't mean that trades don't run from minor swing points, but the best of the best is at the best swing points, that tend to create the biggest runs. Think of the market as moving in waves. Each time it moves in a wave it is putting in a new swing point. Some of these swings are bigger and more standout then others. Just as PPZs major and minor

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45103  
Old Oct 2, 2009 2:09am
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Difference is the Time Frames. Mike was on the Daily, while I was on the 4 Hour. The Daily's space was very closed or trafficy (is that a word) in relation to the setup while the 4 Hour space was very open or less trafficy to the 4 hour setup.

Granted, Mike will require more space for a setup then I might at times, but the important thing here is that there is a good amount of space on a given time frame for that setup.

Am I making sense?

Jim

Yep things can change greatly from timefames.

People are surprised when they see some of the trades I take. They go, I don't get it I see traffic. When I see traffic, that doesn't mean no trade, it usually means to tighten up my trade mgmt plan. Good bars come in many forms and many locations. The key is to learn what makes better locations then others, and what makes better bars then others. Then combine that with trouble areas using s/r, ppz, etc.

Thanks for clarifying for me Jim
Mike
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  #45142  
Old Oct 2, 2009 10:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ha0dho View Post
hi

i took the usdjpy daily pin long a few days ago I thought it was a good pin, at a swing low long nose etc.

At the mo the market has moved down I was wondering if anyone else has took the pin and if not was it not a good pin to take.

ps i dont know how to attach charts

dave
Hey Dave

The real problem with this one for me was it was below the 90 big big round number and trading right into it. Price can easily stall and turn around there. Check out these posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44950
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44956

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #45145  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
afternoon again all, well i'm looking to pick peoples brains on this aud/usd chart (firstly i'd like to say i've traded for a few years now but mostly off smaller timeframes... i seem to be moving up time frames the longer i trade?) so i'm looking at this chart and seeing a pin off of ppz with trend but with close res above and the 8700.

this also looks to be forming a pin on the daily (may be atm)

i'm just after some feedback to this set up please (i'm not trading on these time frames atm)

would the trade look better positioned off the ppz @...
Hey Icarus

Yes you are pretty spot on with everything. It would look better to me off the 8500, but this one went right to where we would expect it to stall 8700. Doesn't that feel good? Over and over price does this.

Best
Mike
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  #45149  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question about Position sizing- Just wondering If I've got this right.

I'ver changed my OANADA account to 5000 from 100k to make it a little more realistic for me.
------
If I risk 1% of my account in a trade ($50) and have a 100 pip stop loss, I can trade 50cents per pip. Correct?
------
50 pip stop loss, $1 per pip, etc etc

.5% of account, 50 pip stop loss, 50cents per pip
------

I have seen this math here, I just want to make sure I've got it right.


Also, please check out my journal if you have the time, I've been recording my trades there....

yep you got it
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  #45142  
Old Oct 2, 2009 10:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ha0dho View Post
hi

i took the usdjpy daily pin long a few days ago I thought it was a good pin, at a swing low long nose etc.

At the mo the market has moved down I was wondering if anyone else has took the pin and if not was it not a good pin to take.

ps i dont know how to attach charts

dave
Hey Dave

The real problem with this one for me was it was below the 90 big big round number and trading right into it. Price can easily stall and turn around there. Check out these posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44950
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44956

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #45145  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
afternoon again all, well i'm looking to pick peoples brains on this aud/usd chart (firstly i'd like to say i've traded for a few years now but mostly off smaller timeframes... i seem to be moving up time frames the longer i trade?) so i'm looking at this chart and seeing a pin off of ppz with trend but with close res above and the 8700.

this also looks to be forming a pin on the daily (may be atm)

i'm just after some feedback to this set up please (i'm not trading on these time frames atm)

would the trade look better positioned off the ppz @...
Hey Icarus

Yes you are pretty spot on with everything. It would look better to me off the 8500, but this one went right to where we would expect it to stall 8700. Doesn't that feel good? Over and over price does this.

Best
Mike
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  #45149  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question about Position sizing- Just wondering If I've got this right.

I'ver changed my OANADA account to 5000 from 100k to make it a little more realistic for me.
------
If I risk 1% of my account in a trade ($50) and have a 100 pip stop loss, I can trade 50cents per pip. Correct?
------
50 pip stop loss, $1 per pip, etc etc

.5% of account, 50 pip stop loss, 50cents per pip
------

I have seen this math here, I just want to make sure I've got it right.


Also, please check out my journal if you have the time, I've been recording my trades there....

yep you got it
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  #45142  
Old Oct 2, 2009 10:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ha0dho View Post
hi

i took the usdjpy daily pin long a few days ago I thought it was a good pin, at a swing low long nose etc.

At the mo the market has moved down I was wondering if anyone else has took the pin and if not was it not a good pin to take.

ps i dont know how to attach charts

dave
Hey Dave

The real problem with this one for me was it was below the 90 big big round number and trading right into it. Price can easily stall and turn around there. Check out these posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44950
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44956

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #45145  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
afternoon again all, well i'm looking to pick peoples brains on this aud/usd chart (firstly i'd like to say i've traded for a few years now but mostly off smaller timeframes... i seem to be moving up time frames the longer i trade?) so i'm looking at this chart and seeing a pin off of ppz with trend but with close res above and the 8700.

this also looks to be forming a pin on the daily (may be atm)

i'm just after some feedback to this set up please (i'm not trading on these time frames atm)

would the trade look better positioned off the ppz @...
Hey Icarus

Yes you are pretty spot on with everything. It would look better to me off the 8500, but this one went right to where we would expect it to stall 8700. Doesn't that feel good? Over and over price does this.

Best
Mike
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  #45149  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question about Position sizing- Just wondering If I've got this right.

I'ver changed my OANADA account to 5000 from 100k to make it a little more realistic for me.
------
If I risk 1% of my account in a trade ($50) and have a 100 pip stop loss, I can trade 50cents per pip. Correct?
------
50 pip stop loss, $1 per pip, etc etc

.5% of account, 50 pip stop loss, 50cents per pip
------

I have seen this math here, I just want to make sure I've got it right.


Also, please check out my journal if you have the time, I've been recording my trades there....

yep you got it
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  #45152  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike,

with this pin and bullish pin on gbpchf of a couple of days back..

in general would pins be valid if prices came down to trigger level, as long as prices didnt breach the nose?
Hey C

I am not quite sure what you mean, can you rephrase

Thanks
Mike
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  #45154  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
well with either of these two pins for example, price has now retraced to a level where you would normally place a buy order assuming this is a new pin and assuming there was no traffic and all that.

if you missed entry the first time round in such a case, would you consider entry on such a retracement?
Hey C

Gotcha now. No never b/c then you are chasing a trade that could have already did all its going to do. IMO that is a very bad habit. For example GBP/CHF already well went to and beyond the first trouble area meaning most people were out for profit or b/e at worst. Entering now, would be chasing a past trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45152  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike,

with this pin and bullish pin on gbpchf of a couple of days back..

in general would pins be valid if prices came down to trigger level, as long as prices didnt breach the nose?
Hey C

I am not quite sure what you mean, can you rephrase

Thanks
Mike
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  #45154  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:18pm
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
well with either of these two pins for example, price has now retraced to a level where you would normally place a buy order assuming this is a new pin and assuming there was no traffic and all that.

if you missed entry the first time round in such a case, would you consider entry on such a retracement?
Hey C

Gotcha now. No never b/c then you are chasing a trade that could have already did all its going to do. IMO that is a very bad habit. For example GBP/CHF already well went to and beyond the first trouble area meaning most people were out for profit or b/e at worst. Entering now, would be chasing a past trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45142  
Old Oct 2, 2009 10:49am
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ha0dho View Post
hi

i took the usdjpy daily pin long a few days ago I thought it was a good pin, at a swing low long nose etc.

At the mo the market has moved down I was wondering if anyone else has took the pin and if not was it not a good pin to take.

ps i dont know how to attach charts

dave
Hey Dave

The real problem with this one for me was it was below the 90 big big round number and trading right into it. Price can easily stall and turn around there. Check out these posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44950
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44956

Hope that helps

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #45145  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:17am
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
afternoon again all, well i'm looking to pick peoples brains on this aud/usd chart (firstly i'd like to say i've traded for a few years now but mostly off smaller timeframes... i seem to be moving up time frames the longer i trade?) so i'm looking at this chart and seeing a pin off of ppz with trend but with close res above and the 8700.

this also looks to be forming a pin on the daily (may be atm)

i'm just after some feedback to this set up please (i'm not trading on these time frames atm)

would the trade look better positioned off the ppz @...
Hey Icarus

Yes you are pretty spot on with everything. It would look better to me off the 8500, but this one went right to where we would expect it to stall 8700. Doesn't that feel good? Over and over price does this.

Best
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #45149  
Old Oct 2, 2009 11:28am
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Question about Position sizing- Just wondering If I've got this right.

I'ver changed my OANADA account to 5000 from 100k to make it a little more realistic for me.
------
If I risk 1% of my account in a trade ($50) and have a 100 pip stop loss, I can trade 50cents per pip. Correct?
------
50 pip stop loss, $1 per pip, etc etc

.5% of account, 50 pip stop loss, 50cents per pip
------

I have seen this math here, I just want to make sure I've got it right.


Also, please check out my journal if you have the time, I've been recording my trades there....

yep you got it
Reply With Quote
  #45152  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike,

with this pin and bullish pin on gbpchf of a couple of days back..

in general would pins be valid if prices came down to trigger level, as long as prices didnt breach the nose?
Hey C

I am not quite sure what you mean, can you rephrase

Thanks
Mike
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  #45154  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:18pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
well with either of these two pins for example, price has now retraced to a level where you would normally place a buy order assuming this is a new pin and assuming there was no traffic and all that.

if you missed entry the first time round in such a case, would you consider entry on such a retracement?
Hey C

Gotcha now. No never b/c then you are chasing a trade that could have already did all its going to do. IMO that is a very bad habit. For example GBP/CHF already well went to and beyond the first trouble area meaning most people were out for profit or b/e at worst. Entering now, would be chasing a past trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #45152  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike,

with this pin and bullish pin on gbpchf of a couple of days back..

in general would pins be valid if prices came down to trigger level, as long as prices didnt breach the nose?
Hey C

I am not quite sure what you mean, can you rephrase

Thanks
Mike
Reply With Quote
  #45154  
Old Oct 2, 2009 12:18pm
mbqb11's Avatar
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Member Since Aug 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
well with either of these two pins for example, price has now retraced to a level where you would normally place a buy order assuming this is a new pin and assuming there was no traffic and all that.

if you missed entry the first time round in such a case, would you consider entry on such a retracement?
Hey C

Gotcha now. No never b/c then you are chasing a trade that could have already did all its going to do. IMO that is a very bad habit. For example GBP/CHF already well went to and beyond the first trouble area meaning most people were out for profit or b/e at worst. Entering now, would be chasing a past trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45208  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
This leads me then, to another question which I have read so much conflicting info on, and the search button failed to help me with, as I'm planning a trade:...
Hey Alye

R:R is one of those things that is all about the trader. James for example could care less about R:R. Why? Because he knows he is going to have an extremely high win rate. This is then built into that type of method. Some people want a certain Reward for their risk. Also fine if that is what you are comfortable with. I personally don't care about R:R either. Sometimes I make 1:1, sometimes 1/2% sometimes 1/4%, sometimes 3R. I just trade what are good setups and manage them accordingly. At the end of the day I believe profits take care of themselves if you are picky and trading what you know works.

Here is some expansion from James on this topic
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711

So what is going to be right for you? I couldn't really say. Some people need very high win rate. By the nature of that you are going to usually have high win rate and a small winners. Likewise your losses will generally be bigger(say you have a 90% win rate). So lots of small winners, with the occasional larger loss. Some people have 30% win rates with huge R on their risk.

Let me know if this makes sense
Mike
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  #45208  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
This leads me then, to another question which I have read so much conflicting info on, and the search button failed to help me with, as I'm planning a trade:...
Hey Alye

R:R is one of those things that is all about the trader. James for example could care less about R:R. Why? Because he knows he is going to have an extremely high win rate. This is then built into that type of method. Some people want a certain Reward for their risk. Also fine if that is what you are comfortable with. I personally don't care about R:R either. Sometimes I make 1:1, sometimes 1/2% sometimes 1/4%, sometimes 3R. I just trade what are good setups and manage them accordingly. At the end of the day I believe profits take care of themselves if you are picky and trading what you know works.

Here is some expansion from James on this topic
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711

So what is going to be right for you? I couldn't really say. Some people need very high win rate. By the nature of that you are going to usually have high win rate and a small winners. Likewise your losses will generally be bigger(say you have a 90% win rate). So lots of small winners, with the occasional larger loss. Some people have 30% win rates with huge R on their risk.

Let me know if this makes sense
Mike
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  #45208  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
This leads me then, to another question which I have read so much conflicting info on, and the search button failed to help me with, as I'm planning a trade:...
Hey Alye

R:R is one of those things that is all about the trader. James for example could care less about R:R. Why? Because he knows he is going to have an extremely high win rate. This is then built into that type of method. Some people want a certain Reward for their risk. Also fine if that is what you are comfortable with. I personally don't care about R:R either. Sometimes I make 1:1, sometimes 1/2% sometimes 1/4%, sometimes 3R. I just trade what are good setups and manage them accordingly. At the end of the day I believe profits take care of themselves if you are picky and trading what you know works.

Here is some expansion from James on this topic
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711

So what is going to be right for you? I couldn't really say. Some people need very high win rate. By the nature of that you are going to usually have high win rate and a small winners. Likewise your losses will generally be bigger(say you have a 90% win rate). So lots of small winners, with the occasional larger loss. Some people have 30% win rates with huge R on their risk.

Let me know if this makes sense
Mike
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  #45211  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:26pm
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Don't be a stranger friend

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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
After about 4 years of looking in on the FF, I am saying goodbye....
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  #45211  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:26pm
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Don't be a stranger friend

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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
After about 4 years of looking in on the FF, I am saying goodbye....
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  #45208  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
This leads me then, to another question which I have read so much conflicting info on, and the search button failed to help me with, as I'm planning a trade:...
Hey Alye

R:R is one of those things that is all about the trader. James for example could care less about R:R. Why? Because he knows he is going to have an extremely high win rate. This is then built into that type of method. Some people want a certain Reward for their risk. Also fine if that is what you are comfortable with. I personally don't care about R:R either. Sometimes I make 1:1, sometimes 1/2% sometimes 1/4%, sometimes 3R. I just trade what are good setups and manage them accordingly. At the end of the day I believe profits take care of themselves if you are picky and trading what you know works.

Here is some expansion from James on this topic
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711

So what is going to be right for you? I couldn't really say. Some people need very high win rate. By the nature of that you are going to usually have high win rate and a small winners. Likewise your losses will generally be bigger(say you have a 90% win rate). So lots of small winners, with the occasional larger loss. Some people have 30% win rates with huge R on their risk.

Let me know if this makes sense
Mike
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  #45211  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:26pm
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Don't be a stranger friend

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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
After about 4 years of looking in on the FF, I am saying goodbye....
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  #45226  
Old Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm
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Originally Posted by BigSeksi View Post
Hello everyone. I've been following this tread off and on for a while now but for the last 2 weeks I've been following it everyday. I'm not one to post a lot, I like to sit back and observe, I learn by watching, doing, and learning from my mistakes. But I guess it's time to stop lurking in the shadows. I've learned a lot from the content on this thread and I really appreciate what you all have been doing here. You all seem so helpful to one another and are always expressing your gratitude for it. Well now it's my turn. Thank you all for what you've...
Welcome Big, glad to see you come out from lurking
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  #45226  
Old Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm
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Originally Posted by BigSeksi View Post
Hello everyone. I've been following this tread off and on for a while now but for the last 2 weeks I've been following it everyday. I'm not one to post a lot, I like to sit back and observe, I learn by watching, doing, and learning from my mistakes. But I guess it's time to stop lurking in the shadows. I've learned a lot from the content on this thread and I really appreciate what you all have been doing here. You all seem so helpful to one another and are always expressing your gratitude for it. Well now it's my turn. Thank you all for what you've...
Welcome Big, glad to see you come out from lurking
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  #45211  
Old Oct 4, 2009 4:26pm
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Don't be a stranger friend

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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
After about 4 years of looking in on the FF, I am saying goodbye....
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  #45226  
Old Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSeksi View Post
Hello everyone. I've been following this tread off and on for a while now but for the last 2 weeks I've been following it everyday. I'm not one to post a lot, I like to sit back and observe, I learn by watching, doing, and learning from my mistakes. But I guess it's time to stop lurking in the shadows. I've learned a lot from the content on this thread and I really appreciate what you all have been doing here. You all seem so helpful to one another and are always expressing your gratitude for it. Well now it's my turn. Thank you all for what you've...
Welcome Big, glad to see you come out from lurking
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  #45226  
Old Oct 4, 2009 6:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSeksi View Post
Hello everyone. I've been following this tread off and on for a while now but for the last 2 weeks I've been following it everyday. I'm not one to post a lot, I like to sit back and observe, I learn by watching, doing, and learning from my mistakes. But I guess it's time to stop lurking in the shadows. I've learned a lot from the content on this thread and I really appreciate what you all have been doing here. You all seem so helpful to one another and are always expressing your gratitude for it. Well now it's my turn. Thank you all for what you've...
Welcome Big, glad to see you come out from lurking
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  #45279  
Old Oct 5, 2009 5:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Looking now at the daily chart 2 pin bars - indecision situation, that is technical analysis. I'm just wondering if one can extract something from such daily set up or is ist better just to pass it easily. The fact the the price action is finding kind of support at area of 1.5912-1.5900 is making me wonder is the move up in Cable already a history or there is some potential to break through the thick resistance level above the close of today's pin. What are you thoughts on this ?
If I had to guess I would say were still moving down after this breakout and pullback of that massive H&S pattern. Any moves up there is quite a bit of resistance. Those few last pins though are mighty small and in traffic, so not really worth it. Again this is just if I had to guess. But I don't trade off that.

Here is a trade I made today on the gbp/usd

Best
Mike

PS LETS GO VIKINGS!
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  #45283  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:07pm
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Originally Posted by user37 View Post
What do you guys think about the 2 day pins on audchf and euraud?
Hey User

None of these really interest me all that much. Both locations are not where we ideally want to see pins. That is the eur/aud is at a swing high(we want bullish pins at swing lows), and the eur/aud is at a swing low we want them at swing highs.

The aud/chf looks the best simply from a S/R standpoint.


Best
Mike
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  #45284  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:08pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
ARGH!!

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  #45279  
Old Oct 5, 2009 5:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Looking now at the daily chart 2 pin bars - indecision situation, that is technical analysis. I'm just wondering if one can extract something from such daily set up or is ist better just to pass it easily. The fact the the price action is finding kind of support at area of 1.5912-1.5900 is making me wonder is the move up in Cable already a history or there is some potential to break through the thick resistance level above the close of today's pin. What are you thoughts on this ?
If I had to guess I would say were still moving down after this breakout and pullback of that massive H&S pattern. Any moves up there is quite a bit of resistance. Those few last pins though are mighty small and in traffic, so not really worth it. Again this is just if I had to guess. But I don't trade off that.

Here is a trade I made today on the gbp/usd

Best
Mike

PS LETS GO VIKINGS!
Attached Thumbnails
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  #45283  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user37 View Post
What do you guys think about the 2 day pins on audchf and euraud?
Hey User

None of these really interest me all that much. Both locations are not where we ideally want to see pins. That is the eur/aud is at a swing high(we want bullish pins at swing lows), and the eur/aud is at a swing low we want them at swing highs.

The aud/chf looks the best simply from a S/R standpoint.


Best
Mike
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  #45284  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:08pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
ARGH!!

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  #45292  
Old Oct 5, 2009 11:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternal_wndr View Post
So what if it made decision to move up 5 min b/4 bar close...
Rus.
Hey Rus

I will give you my opinon on this after doing it for awhile. The reason it is significant is it helps us determine the true strength.

Example a pinbar to go short is hanging below a round number. If it has the strength to close OVER the round number, it is showing more bullish strength. If it can not it is showing the bulls weakening. I actually use this as a very important part of my trading. For example outside bars that can close below/above the previous bars low/high respectfully can show a lot more conviction on the upcoming move. Of course location still trumps mostly everything, but I find the closing of a bar very crucial.

Just some thoughts
Mike
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  #45297  
Old Oct 6, 2009 1:44am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...You've named the trash can under your desk "Bundy Folder" haven't you?

See, I've figured you out fella.
LOL
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  #45279  
Old Oct 5, 2009 5:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Looking now at the daily chart 2 pin bars - indecision situation, that is technical analysis. I'm just wondering if one can extract something from such daily set up or is ist better just to pass it easily. The fact the the price action is finding kind of support at area of 1.5912-1.5900 is making me wonder is the move up in Cable already a history or there is some potential to break through the thick resistance level above the close of today's pin. What are you thoughts on this ?
If I had to guess I would say were still moving down after this breakout and pullback of that massive H&S pattern. Any moves up there is quite a bit of resistance. Those few last pins though are mighty small and in traffic, so not really worth it. Again this is just if I had to guess. But I don't trade off that.

Here is a trade I made today on the gbp/usd

Best
Mike

PS LETS GO VIKINGS!
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  #45283  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user37 View Post
What do you guys think about the 2 day pins on audchf and euraud?
Hey User

None of these really interest me all that much. Both locations are not where we ideally want to see pins. That is the eur/aud is at a swing high(we want bullish pins at swing lows), and the eur/aud is at a swing low we want them at swing highs.

The aud/chf looks the best simply from a S/R standpoint.


Best
Mike
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  #45284  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
ARGH!!

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  #45279  
Old Oct 5, 2009 5:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Looking now at the daily chart 2 pin bars - indecision situation, that is technical analysis. I'm just wondering if one can extract something from such daily set up or is ist better just to pass it easily. The fact the the price action is finding kind of support at area of 1.5912-1.5900 is making me wonder is the move up in Cable already a history or there is some potential to break through the thick resistance level above the close of today's pin. What are you thoughts on this ?
If I had to guess I would say were still moving down after this breakout and pullback of that massive H&S pattern. Any moves up there is quite a bit of resistance. Those few last pins though are mighty small and in traffic, so not really worth it. Again this is just if I had to guess. But I don't trade off that.

Here is a trade I made today on the gbp/usd

Best
Mike

PS LETS GO VIKINGS!
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	a3.gif
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Size:	18.0 KB
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  #45283  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user37 View Post
What do you guys think about the 2 day pins on audchf and euraud?
Hey User

None of these really interest me all that much. Both locations are not where we ideally want to see pins. That is the eur/aud is at a swing high(we want bullish pins at swing lows), and the eur/aud is at a swing low we want them at swing highs.

The aud/chf looks the best simply from a S/R standpoint.


Best
Mike
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  #45284  
Old Oct 5, 2009 6:08pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
ARGH!!

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  #45292  
Old Oct 5, 2009 11:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternal_wndr View Post
So what if it made decision to move up 5 min b/4 bar close...
Rus.
Hey Rus

I will give you my opinon on this after doing it for awhile. The reason it is significant is it helps us determine the true strength.

Example a pinbar to go short is hanging below a round number. If it has the strength to close OVER the round number, it is showing more bullish strength. If it can not it is showing the bulls weakening. I actually use this as a very important part of my trading. For example outside bars that can close below/above the previous bars low/high respectfully can show a lot more conviction on the upcoming move. Of course location still trumps mostly everything, but I find the closing of a bar very crucial.

Just some thoughts
Mike
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  #45297  
Old Oct 6, 2009 1:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...You've named the trash can under your desk "Bundy Folder" haven't you?

See, I've figured you out fella.
LOL
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  #45308  
Old Oct 6, 2009 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
This morning, I set my sell order on EUR AUD at 1.6690, TP at 1.6610 and 35pips stoploss through Oanda. When I check again, EUR AUD was at 1.6605. I thought I have bank some profits. But when I check on Oanda, instead of making some pips, my order got canceled due to BV (Boundary Violation). When I ask Mr.Google, it seems that this happen quite often with Oanda due to increase in spread, most of the time it is news related. In this case, interest rate announcement. Ever happen to you? ------- (Luckily, this is only on demo ). On to next trade.
Hey esbatu

You have the ability to set your range(bounds) to whatever you desire. This is to help prevent a widened spread from getting you into a trade unwanted. You can set them to whatever you are comfortable with in Oanda Tools - User Preferences. All brokers give bounds in some form or another.

Best
Mike
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  #45292  
Old Oct 5, 2009 11:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternal_wndr View Post
So what if it made decision to move up 5 min b/4 bar close...
Rus.
Hey Rus

I will give you my opinon on this after doing it for awhile. The reason it is significant is it helps us determine the true strength.

Example a pinbar to go short is hanging below a round number. If it has the strength to close OVER the round number, it is showing more bullish strength. If it can not it is showing the bulls weakening. I actually use this as a very important part of my trading. For example outside bars that can close below/above the previous bars low/high respectfully can show a lot more conviction on the upcoming move. Of course location still trumps mostly everything, but I find the closing of a bar very crucial.

Just some thoughts
Mike
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  #45297  
Old Oct 6, 2009 1:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...You've named the trash can under your desk "Bundy Folder" haven't you?

See, I've figured you out fella.
LOL
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  #45308  
Old Oct 6, 2009 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
This morning, I set my sell order on EUR AUD at 1.6690, TP at 1.6610 and 35pips stoploss through Oanda. When I check again, EUR AUD was at 1.6605. I thought I have bank some profits. But when I check on Oanda, instead of making some pips, my order got canceled due to BV (Boundary Violation). When I ask Mr.Google, it seems that this happen quite often with Oanda due to increase in spread, most of the time it is news related. In this case, interest rate announcement. Ever happen to you? ------- (Luckily, this is only on demo ). On to next trade.
Hey esbatu

You have the ability to set your range(bounds) to whatever you desire. This is to help prevent a widened spread from getting you into a trade unwanted. You can set them to whatever you are comfortable with in Oanda Tools - User Preferences. All brokers give bounds in some form or another.

Best
Mike
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  #45292  
Old Oct 5, 2009 11:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternal_wndr View Post
So what if it made decision to move up 5 min b/4 bar close...
Rus.
Hey Rus

I will give you my opinon on this after doing it for awhile. The reason it is significant is it helps us determine the true strength.

Example a pinbar to go short is hanging below a round number. If it has the strength to close OVER the round number, it is showing more bullish strength. If it can not it is showing the bulls weakening. I actually use this as a very important part of my trading. For example outside bars that can close below/above the previous bars low/high respectfully can show a lot more conviction on the upcoming move. Of course location still trumps mostly everything, but I find the closing of a bar very crucial.

Just some thoughts
Mike
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  #45297  
Old Oct 6, 2009 1:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...You've named the trash can under your desk "Bundy Folder" haven't you?

See, I've figured you out fella.
LOL
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  #45308  
Old Oct 6, 2009 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
This morning, I set my sell order on EUR AUD at 1.6690, TP at 1.6610 and 35pips stoploss through Oanda. When I check again, EUR AUD was at 1.6605. I thought I have bank some profits. But when I check on Oanda, instead of making some pips, my order got canceled due to BV (Boundary Violation). When I ask Mr.Google, it seems that this happen quite often with Oanda due to increase in spread, most of the time it is news related. In this case, interest rate announcement. Ever happen to you? ------- (Luckily, this is only on demo ). On to next trade.
Hey esbatu

You have the ability to set your range(bounds) to whatever you desire. This is to help prevent a widened spread from getting you into a trade unwanted. You can set them to whatever you are comfortable with in Oanda Tools - User Preferences. All brokers give bounds in some form or another.

Best
Mike
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  #45308  
Old Oct 6, 2009 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
This morning, I set my sell order on EUR AUD at 1.6690, TP at 1.6610 and 35pips stoploss through Oanda. When I check again, EUR AUD was at 1.6605. I thought I have bank some profits. But when I check on Oanda, instead of making some pips, my order got canceled due to BV (Boundary Violation). When I ask Mr.Google, it seems that this happen quite often with Oanda due to increase in spread, most of the time it is news related. In this case, interest rate announcement. Ever happen to you? ------- (Luckily, this is only on demo ). On to next trade.
Hey esbatu

You have the ability to set your range(bounds) to whatever you desire. This is to help prevent a widened spread from getting you into a trade unwanted. You can set them to whatever you are comfortable with in Oanda Tools - User Preferences. All brokers give bounds in some form or another.

Best
Mike
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  #45333  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:32am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi Mike,...
Hey estabu

Oanda can check this all for you if you email them. They are pretty good with all this from any problems I have ever had

Best
Mike
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  #45334  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:36am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
most of us (not everybody) from the pf, who know the material would be out (or at least book some profit) when cable hit blue rectangle around 1.58 area.
Those who didn't, would've had stop set @ BE+some at that point.
Until trading conditions return to 'normal', it's safer to trade TPs and reload after retrace, rather than trade and hold..
very very important post here guys
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  #45337  
Old Oct 6, 2009 12:20pm
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Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike, no guarantee that 'normal' will return, will it? this might become 'normal' ?
Well I consider normal whatever we are trading. As I feel a market is moving in a better way I tend to hold on breakout trades, and trail out. If a market is choppy I tend to be more tight and take profit move my stops quicker. It is all in the eye of the beholder

But we always have to know the trouble areas. For example on gbp/usd that low was clearly the most current trouble area since that pin was not at a true swing high. Whenever we trade continuation pins like that you are always trading into that first trboule area "low"

Best
Mike
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  #45333  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:32am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi Mike,...
Hey estabu

Oanda can check this all for you if you email them. They are pretty good with all this from any problems I have ever had

Best
Mike
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  #45334  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
most of us (not everybody) from the pf, who know the material would be out (or at least book some profit) when cable hit blue rectangle around 1.58 area.
Those who didn't, would've had stop set @ BE+some at that point.
Until trading conditions return to 'normal', it's safer to trade TPs and reload after retrace, rather than trade and hold..
very very important post here guys
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  #45337  
Old Oct 6, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike, no guarantee that 'normal' will return, will it? this might become 'normal' ?
Well I consider normal whatever we are trading. As I feel a market is moving in a better way I tend to hold on breakout trades, and trail out. If a market is choppy I tend to be more tight and take profit move my stops quicker. It is all in the eye of the beholder

But we always have to know the trouble areas. For example on gbp/usd that low was clearly the most current trouble area since that pin was not at a true swing high. Whenever we trade continuation pins like that you are always trading into that first trboule area "low"

Best
Mike
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  #45360  
Old Oct 6, 2009 5:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
swiss yen? anyone interested in this? broke 87 then came back to retest forming 2 pins?
probably not worth the risk once you enter 10 pips below break of pins and with 86 looming 10 or so pips away
also be careful here Matt. Remember the location we want to see these pins at are swing high points. These are at swing low points. Granted some of these xxx/jpy pairs look like they want to retest the lows, but I still wouldn't trade based of those

Best
Mike
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  #45333  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:32am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi Mike,...
Hey estabu

Oanda can check this all for you if you email them. They are pretty good with all this from any problems I have ever had

Best
Mike
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  #45334  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:36am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
most of us (not everybody) from the pf, who know the material would be out (or at least book some profit) when cable hit blue rectangle around 1.58 area.
Those who didn't, would've had stop set @ BE+some at that point.
Until trading conditions return to 'normal', it's safer to trade TPs and reload after retrace, rather than trade and hold..
very very important post here guys
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  #45337  
Old Oct 6, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike, no guarantee that 'normal' will return, will it? this might become 'normal' ?
Well I consider normal whatever we are trading. As I feel a market is moving in a better way I tend to hold on breakout trades, and trail out. If a market is choppy I tend to be more tight and take profit move my stops quicker. It is all in the eye of the beholder

But we always have to know the trouble areas. For example on gbp/usd that low was clearly the most current trouble area since that pin was not at a true swing high. Whenever we trade continuation pins like that you are always trading into that first trboule area "low"

Best
Mike
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  #45333  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi Mike,...
Hey estabu

Oanda can check this all for you if you email them. They are pretty good with all this from any problems I have ever had

Best
Mike
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  #45334  
Old Oct 6, 2009 11:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
most of us (not everybody) from the pf, who know the material would be out (or at least book some profit) when cable hit blue rectangle around 1.58 area.
Those who didn't, would've had stop set @ BE+some at that point.
Until trading conditions return to 'normal', it's safer to trade TPs and reload after retrace, rather than trade and hold..
very very important post here guys
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  #45337  
Old Oct 6, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
mike, no guarantee that 'normal' will return, will it? this might become 'normal' ?
Well I consider normal whatever we are trading. As I feel a market is moving in a better way I tend to hold on breakout trades, and trail out. If a market is choppy I tend to be more tight and take profit move my stops quicker. It is all in the eye of the beholder

But we always have to know the trouble areas. For example on gbp/usd that low was clearly the most current trouble area since that pin was not at a true swing high. Whenever we trade continuation pins like that you are always trading into that first trboule area "low"

Best
Mike
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  #45360  
Old Oct 6, 2009 5:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
swiss yen? anyone interested in this? broke 87 then came back to retest forming 2 pins?
probably not worth the risk once you enter 10 pips below break of pins and with 86 looming 10 or so pips away
also be careful here Matt. Remember the location we want to see these pins at are swing high points. These are at swing low points. Granted some of these xxx/jpy pairs look like they want to retest the lows, but I still wouldn't trade based of those

Best
Mike
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  #45360  
Old Oct 6, 2009 5:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
swiss yen? anyone interested in this? broke 87 then came back to retest forming 2 pins?
probably not worth the risk once you enter 10 pips below break of pins and with 86 looming 10 or so pips away
also be careful here Matt. Remember the location we want to see these pins at are swing high points. These are at swing low points. Granted some of these xxx/jpy pairs look like they want to retest the lows, but I still wouldn't trade based of those

Best
Mike
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  #45368  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b612 View Post
Hi,

Nice 2PB on GBPUSD daily. I think there is a potential short, 50-75 pips down to the green line. All comments are welcome.
Hey B

While I do agree gbp/usd looks to be making moves down we have to be careful taking pinbars at swing lows b/c you are trading right into that first low and trouble are. The place James teaches is to have them at swing high points. Let me know if you need help understanding swing points I would be glad to help

Mike
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  #45372  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:44pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
swing high/low?
No need to repeat, Sir.
u just had a recent post about this, on Oct.2.
O NICE!

Thanks supreme I forgot my own posts
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  #45368  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b612 View Post
Hi,

Nice 2PB on GBPUSD daily. I think there is a potential short, 50-75 pips down to the green line. All comments are welcome.
Hey B

While I do agree gbp/usd looks to be making moves down we have to be careful taking pinbars at swing lows b/c you are trading right into that first low and trouble are. The place James teaches is to have them at swing high points. Let me know if you need help understanding swing points I would be glad to help

Mike
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  #45372  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
swing high/low?
No need to repeat, Sir.
u just had a recent post about this, on Oct.2.
O NICE!

Thanks supreme I forgot my own posts
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  #45360  
Old Oct 6, 2009 5:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
swiss yen? anyone interested in this? broke 87 then came back to retest forming 2 pins?
probably not worth the risk once you enter 10 pips below break of pins and with 86 looming 10 or so pips away
also be careful here Matt. Remember the location we want to see these pins at are swing high points. These are at swing low points. Granted some of these xxx/jpy pairs look like they want to retest the lows, but I still wouldn't trade based of those

Best
Mike
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  #45368  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b612 View Post
Hi,

Nice 2PB on GBPUSD daily. I think there is a potential short, 50-75 pips down to the green line. All comments are welcome.
Hey B

While I do agree gbp/usd looks to be making moves down we have to be careful taking pinbars at swing lows b/c you are trading right into that first low and trouble are. The place James teaches is to have them at swing high points. Let me know if you need help understanding swing points I would be glad to help

Mike
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  #45372  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
swing high/low?
No need to repeat, Sir.
u just had a recent post about this, on Oct.2.
O NICE!

Thanks supreme I forgot my own posts
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  #45368  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b612 View Post
Hi,

Nice 2PB on GBPUSD daily. I think there is a potential short, 50-75 pips down to the green line. All comments are welcome.
Hey B

While I do agree gbp/usd looks to be making moves down we have to be careful taking pinbars at swing lows b/c you are trading right into that first low and trouble are. The place James teaches is to have them at swing high points. Let me know if you need help understanding swing points I would be glad to help

Mike
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  #45372  
Old Oct 6, 2009 10:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
swing high/low?
No need to repeat, Sir.
u just had a recent post about this, on Oct.2.
O NICE!

Thanks supreme I forgot my own posts
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  #45429  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
hi,

im new here and still trying to learn to pick good pinbar formations
i just came across this pinbar on the USD/CAD daily chart, along with Fib retracement levels.

please let me know if i have picked a good pinbar/drawn Fib correctly etc. Any comments/criticism/improvements are welcome!

*in the first chart, ASSUMING the daily close will be at the top 1/3 of the pinbar, is it a good quality pinbar?

*in the second chart, im just showing how my Fib retracement is drawn...is it done correctly? if it is, the current price is at 61.8 area which...
Hey Arthur

This would be a good location at a swing low to look for a pinbar. But what I would want to see is a nose that protrudes further away from that prior bar lows. The way it is sitting high up in that prior bar and small in size compared to the previous few bearish bars would have me on the sideline. What could very well happen if it forms a pin is a move up to the shaded area, before a move down to 1.0500 round number. Here is where I would be looking for some nice size PA. Yes your fib is drawn correct, and I think it lines up pretty close with that 1.0500 number, so I would be waiting for some nice big PA.

Let me know if that makes sense about size and nose protruding out


Hope that helps
MIke
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  #45430  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tj#8 View Post
hey guys

I've been in PF for about 10months now
and now I'm trying to give myself more time to chime in here

Look forward working with you guys!! =)

So, anyone's long gbpjpy?? (except Mark hee)

Such a big size, but I don't see any significant momentum so far

Price did retrace to the expected level, let's see if it holds

*I'd like to hear about the momentum from you Jaroo =)
I am long with you too tJ. The 142 mark shot this one down, but the size of the BUOB, has made me hold. I will trail this one out and look towards 143-144 area personally.

Mike
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  #45431  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dogfight View Post
look at this.

exact point of entry, exact point of exit. how easy can it get.
Hey Dog

You guys make me nervous on the small timeframes, but man that is a nice looking pin

Well done

Mike
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  #45434  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noloqy View Post
This is an interesting situation. As posted above, we saw bullish GBPJPY signals on the 1h and 4h timeframes earlier today, with supporting convergence from indicators, at a double bottom rejected by a 50 fib level., and a couple of hours later...
Hey Nology

My take based on my methods(which is all I can ever speak of really). Is I simply trade each chart by itself. If i get a signal that lines up with what I do I take it no matter what is going on else where(for the most part). When I say for the most part there are always exceptions as most traders will tell you. So a good bar, in a good location = a good trade. I have seen situations where you should have second guessed, and ones where if you did you would have taken yourself out of a good trade. I try to just keep it as simple as possible at this point. Trade my edge and let the amount of trades help play it out.

Just my 2 cents

Mike
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  #45429  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
hi,

im new here and still trying to learn to pick good pinbar formations
i just came across this pinbar on the USD/CAD daily chart, along with Fib retracement levels.

please let me know if i have picked a good pinbar/drawn Fib correctly etc. Any comments/criticism/improvements are welcome!

*in the first chart, ASSUMING the daily close will be at the top 1/3 of the pinbar, is it a good quality pinbar?

*in the second chart, im just showing how my Fib retracement is drawn...is it done correctly? if it is, the current price is at 61.8 area which...
Hey Arthur

This would be a good location at a swing low to look for a pinbar. But what I would want to see is a nose that protrudes further away from that prior bar lows. The way it is sitting high up in that prior bar and small in size compared to the previous few bearish bars would have me on the sideline. What could very well happen if it forms a pin is a move up to the shaded area, before a move down to 1.0500 round number. Here is where I would be looking for some nice size PA. Yes your fib is drawn correct, and I think it lines up pretty close with that 1.0500 number, so I would be waiting for some nice big PA.

Let me know if that makes sense about size and nose protruding out


Hope that helps
MIke
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  #45430  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tj#8 View Post
hey guys

I've been in PF for about 10months now
and now I'm trying to give myself more time to chime in here

Look forward working with you guys!! =)

So, anyone's long gbpjpy?? (except Mark hee)

Such a big size, but I don't see any significant momentum so far

Price did retrace to the expected level, let's see if it holds

*I'd like to hear about the momentum from you Jaroo =)
I am long with you too tJ. The 142 mark shot this one down, but the size of the BUOB, has made me hold. I will trail this one out and look towards 143-144 area personally.

Mike
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  #45431  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dogfight View Post
look at this.

exact point of entry, exact point of exit. how easy can it get.
Hey Dog

You guys make me nervous on the small timeframes, but man that is a nice looking pin

Well done

Mike
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  #45434  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noloqy View Post
This is an interesting situation. As posted above, we saw bullish GBPJPY signals on the 1h and 4h timeframes earlier today, with supporting convergence from indicators, at a double bottom rejected by a 50 fib level., and a couple of hours later...
Hey Nology

My take based on my methods(which is all I can ever speak of really). Is I simply trade each chart by itself. If i get a signal that lines up with what I do I take it no matter what is going on else where(for the most part). When I say for the most part there are always exceptions as most traders will tell you. So a good bar, in a good location = a good trade. I have seen situations where you should have second guessed, and ones where if you did you would have taken yourself out of a good trade. I try to just keep it as simple as possible at this point. Trade my edge and let the amount of trades help play it out.

Just my 2 cents

Mike
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  #45429  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
hi,

im new here and still trying to learn to pick good pinbar formations
i just came across this pinbar on the USD/CAD daily chart, along with Fib retracement levels.

please let me know if i have picked a good pinbar/drawn Fib correctly etc. Any comments/criticism/improvements are welcome!

*in the first chart, ASSUMING the daily close will be at the top 1/3 of the pinbar, is it a good quality pinbar?

*in the second chart, im just showing how my Fib retracement is drawn...is it done correctly? if it is, the current price is at 61.8 area which...
Hey Arthur

This would be a good location at a swing low to look for a pinbar. But what I would want to see is a nose that protrudes further away from that prior bar lows. The way it is sitting high up in that prior bar and small in size compared to the previous few bearish bars would have me on the sideline. What could very well happen if it forms a pin is a move up to the shaded area, before a move down to 1.0500 round number. Here is where I would be looking for some nice size PA. Yes your fib is drawn correct, and I think it lines up pretty close with that 1.0500 number, so I would be waiting for some nice big PA.

Let me know if that makes sense about size and nose protruding out


Hope that helps
MIke
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  #45430  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tj#8 View Post
hey guys

I've been in PF for about 10months now
and now I'm trying to give myself more time to chime in here

Look forward working with you guys!! =)

So, anyone's long gbpjpy?? (except Mark hee)

Such a big size, but I don't see any significant momentum so far

Price did retrace to the expected level, let's see if it holds

*I'd like to hear about the momentum from you Jaroo =)
I am long with you too tJ. The 142 mark shot this one down, but the size of the BUOB, has made me hold. I will trail this one out and look towards 143-144 area personally.

Mike
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  #45431  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dogfight View Post
look at this.

exact point of entry, exact point of exit. how easy can it get.
Hey Dog

You guys make me nervous on the small timeframes, but man that is a nice looking pin

Well done

Mike
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  #45434  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noloqy View Post
This is an interesting situation. As posted above, we saw bullish GBPJPY signals on the 1h and 4h timeframes earlier today, with supporting convergence from indicators, at a double bottom rejected by a 50 fib level., and a couple of hours later...
Hey Nology

My take based on my methods(which is all I can ever speak of really). Is I simply trade each chart by itself. If i get a signal that lines up with what I do I take it no matter what is going on else where(for the most part). When I say for the most part there are always exceptions as most traders will tell you. So a good bar, in a good location = a good trade. I have seen situations where you should have second guessed, and ones where if you did you would have taken yourself out of a good trade. I try to just keep it as simple as possible at this point. Trade my edge and let the amount of trades help play it out.

Just my 2 cents

Mike
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  #45429  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
hi,

im new here and still trying to learn to pick good pinbar formations
i just came across this pinbar on the USD/CAD daily chart, along with Fib retracement levels.

please let me know if i have picked a good pinbar/drawn Fib correctly etc. Any comments/criticism/improvements are welcome!

*in the first chart, ASSUMING the daily close will be at the top 1/3 of the pinbar, is it a good quality pinbar?

*in the second chart, im just showing how my Fib retracement is drawn...is it done correctly? if it is, the current price is at 61.8 area which...
Hey Arthur

This would be a good location at a swing low to look for a pinbar. But what I would want to see is a nose that protrudes further away from that prior bar lows. The way it is sitting high up in that prior bar and small in size compared to the previous few bearish bars would have me on the sideline. What could very well happen if it forms a pin is a move up to the shaded area, before a move down to 1.0500 round number. Here is where I would be looking for some nice size PA. Yes your fib is drawn correct, and I think it lines up pretty close with that 1.0500 number, so I would be waiting for some nice big PA.

Let me know if that makes sense about size and nose protruding out


Hope that helps
MIke
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  #45430  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tj#8 View Post
hey guys

I've been in PF for about 10months now
and now I'm trying to give myself more time to chime in here

Look forward working with you guys!! =)

So, anyone's long gbpjpy?? (except Mark hee)

Such a big size, but I don't see any significant momentum so far

Price did retrace to the expected level, let's see if it holds

*I'd like to hear about the momentum from you Jaroo =)
I am long with you too tJ. The 142 mark shot this one down, but the size of the BUOB, has made me hold. I will trail this one out and look towards 143-144 area personally.

Mike
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  #45431  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dogfight View Post
look at this.

exact point of entry, exact point of exit. how easy can it get.
Hey Dog

You guys make me nervous on the small timeframes, but man that is a nice looking pin

Well done

Mike
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  #45434  
Old Oct 7, 2009 12:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noloqy View Post
This is an interesting situation. As posted above, we saw bullish GBPJPY signals on the 1h and 4h timeframes earlier today, with supporting convergence from indicators, at a double bottom rejected by a 50 fib level., and a couple of hours later...
Hey Nology

My take based on my methods(which is all I can ever speak of really). Is I simply trade each chart by itself. If i get a signal that lines up with what I do I take it no matter what is going on else where(for the most part). When I say for the most part there are always exceptions as most traders will tell you. So a good bar, in a good location = a good trade. I have seen situations where you should have second guessed, and ones where if you did you would have taken yourself out of a good trade. I try to just keep it as simple as possible at this point. Trade my edge and let the amount of trades help play it out.

Just my 2 cents

Mike
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  #45477  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
I was short USDCHF and had a TP at 1.0284.

Price went below my TP and had hit low of 1.02832

Why was the TP not activated, does their need to be 1 pips difference the TP and price?



Edit: wow it just blew over my TP and is now 1.02796.

How can this happen???
Hey T

This can happen in fast markets or illiquid times, but I am guessing this is on a demo, which in that case I wouldn't put much thought into it

If you are on a live , call your broker they will give you the explanation

Best
Mike
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  #45477  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
I was short USDCHF and had a TP at 1.0284.

Price went below my TP and had hit low of 1.02832

Why was the TP not activated, does their need to be 1 pips difference the TP and price?



Edit: wow it just blew over my TP and is now 1.02796.

How can this happen???
Hey T

This can happen in fast markets or illiquid times, but I am guessing this is on a demo, which in that case I wouldn't put much thought into it

If you are on a live , call your broker they will give you the explanation

Best
Mike
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  #45477  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
I was short USDCHF and had a TP at 1.0284.

Price went below my TP and had hit low of 1.02832

Why was the TP not activated, does their need to be 1 pips difference the TP and price?



Edit: wow it just blew over my TP and is now 1.02796.

How can this happen???
Hey T

This can happen in fast markets or illiquid times, but I am guessing this is on a demo, which in that case I wouldn't put much thought into it

If you are on a live , call your broker they will give you the explanation

Best
Mike
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  #45477  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
I was short USDCHF and had a TP at 1.0284.

Price went below my TP and had hit low of 1.02832

Why was the TP not activated, does their need to be 1 pips difference the TP and price?



Edit: wow it just blew over my TP and is now 1.02796.

How can this happen???
Hey T

This can happen in fast markets or illiquid times, but I am guessing this is on a demo, which in that case I wouldn't put much thought into it

If you are on a live , call your broker they will give you the explanation

Best
Mike
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  #45481  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
Wow you're fast

thanks for the reply Mike and yes its on demo and its no big deal but does this regularly also happen with live accts?I just want to make sure so i don't get any surprises later when i open my acct.
It varies broker to broker. You will get slippage at some point, it is more rare in forex as it is a very liquid market as the one we are in. Heavy news times equal a higher probability for problems(or anytime liquidity is low or volatility is high which usually goes hand and hand). At such a dead time as this it is very very rare. Most likely your stop loss is simply a market stop which means it won't get skipped but slippage can happen(market means get me in at any price don't forget). Various ways to protect yourself via limits/bounds. I have no experience with any of these MT4 brokers live so all I can say is do your due diligence But most demo accounts are not reflective of both live conditions and of how a broker operates in a live environment.

Best
Mike
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  #45489  
Old Oct 8, 2009 12:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dg85 View Post
hey guys, I have been lurking for a while absorbing all the info I can and now have freed up some to start to demo trading. I am handling it all pretty well, but I am a bit unsure about inside bars. I got an itchy trigger finger and I took this one on the Eur/Usd and in hindsight I know I probably shouldn't have. I took it just after the high with the stop loss just below the bar. Luckily it has worked out so far. I am just wanting to know how you guys play them and if you think this is an inside bar at all.
Hey DG welcome

I always tell people, from my experience to ignore inside bars until they can grasp the other bars. It isn't b/c inside bars don't offer some high reward situations, it is just that they appear all over b/c they can be caused by so many different reasons that can lead to quite a bit of overtrading and poorly managed trades. Ideally IMO the best Insidebars can be found in similar locations to where we look for other bars like pins. For example an inside bar sitting on a PPZ of support and round number, can offer up a tight stop. Again don't want to discourage any sort of testing, but they can be very tough. For example that inside bar is trading right into the previous days high, which can be a reversal area by itself.

Again welcome to the thread just some of my views
Mike
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  #45481  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
Wow you're fast

thanks for the reply Mike and yes its on demo and its no big deal but does this regularly also happen with live accts?I just want to make sure so i don't get any surprises later when i open my acct.
It varies broker to broker. You will get slippage at some point, it is more rare in forex as it is a very liquid market as the one we are in. Heavy news times equal a higher probability for problems(or anytime liquidity is low or volatility is high which usually goes hand and hand). At such a dead time as this it is very very rare. Most likely your stop loss is simply a market stop which means it won't get skipped but slippage can happen(market means get me in at any price don't forget). Various ways to protect yourself via limits/bounds. I have no experience with any of these MT4 brokers live so all I can say is do your due diligence But most demo accounts are not reflective of both live conditions and of how a broker operates in a live environment.

Best
Mike
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  #45489  
Old Oct 8, 2009 12:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dg85 View Post
hey guys, I have been lurking for a while absorbing all the info I can and now have freed up some to start to demo trading. I am handling it all pretty well, but I am a bit unsure about inside bars. I got an itchy trigger finger and I took this one on the Eur/Usd and in hindsight I know I probably shouldn't have. I took it just after the high with the stop loss just below the bar. Luckily it has worked out so far. I am just wanting to know how you guys play them and if you think this is an inside bar at all.
Hey DG welcome

I always tell people, from my experience to ignore inside bars until they can grasp the other bars. It isn't b/c inside bars don't offer some high reward situations, it is just that they appear all over b/c they can be caused by so many different reasons that can lead to quite a bit of overtrading and poorly managed trades. Ideally IMO the best Insidebars can be found in similar locations to where we look for other bars like pins. For example an inside bar sitting on a PPZ of support and round number, can offer up a tight stop. Again don't want to discourage any sort of testing, but they can be very tough. For example that inside bar is trading right into the previous days high, which can be a reversal area by itself.

Again welcome to the thread just some of my views
Mike
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  #45481  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
Wow you're fast

thanks for the reply Mike and yes its on demo and its no big deal but does this regularly also happen with live accts?I just want to make sure so i don't get any surprises later when i open my acct.
It varies broker to broker. You will get slippage at some point, it is more rare in forex as it is a very liquid market as the one we are in. Heavy news times equal a higher probability for problems(or anytime liquidity is low or volatility is high which usually goes hand and hand). At such a dead time as this it is very very rare. Most likely your stop loss is simply a market stop which means it won't get skipped but slippage can happen(market means get me in at any price don't forget). Various ways to protect yourself via limits/bounds. I have no experience with any of these MT4 brokers live so all I can say is do your due diligence But most demo accounts are not reflective of both live conditions and of how a broker operates in a live environment.

Best
Mike
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  #45489  
Old Oct 8, 2009 12:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dg85 View Post
hey guys, I have been lurking for a while absorbing all the info I can and now have freed up some to start to demo trading. I am handling it all pretty well, but I am a bit unsure about inside bars. I got an itchy trigger finger and I took this one on the Eur/Usd and in hindsight I know I probably shouldn't have. I took it just after the high with the stop loss just below the bar. Luckily it has worked out so far. I am just wanting to know how you guys play them and if you think this is an inside bar at all.
Hey DG welcome

I always tell people, from my experience to ignore inside bars until they can grasp the other bars. It isn't b/c inside bars don't offer some high reward situations, it is just that they appear all over b/c they can be caused by so many different reasons that can lead to quite a bit of overtrading and poorly managed trades. Ideally IMO the best Insidebars can be found in similar locations to where we look for other bars like pins. For example an inside bar sitting on a PPZ of support and round number, can offer up a tight stop. Again don't want to discourage any sort of testing, but they can be very tough. For example that inside bar is trading right into the previous days high, which can be a reversal area by itself.

Again welcome to the thread just some of my views
Mike
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  #45481  
Old Oct 7, 2009 11:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
Wow you're fast

thanks for the reply Mike and yes its on demo and its no big deal but does this regularly also happen with live accts?I just want to make sure so i don't get any surprises later when i open my acct.
It varies broker to broker. You will get slippage at some point, it is more rare in forex as it is a very liquid market as the one we are in. Heavy news times equal a higher probability for problems(or anytime liquidity is low or volatility is high which usually goes hand and hand). At such a dead time as this it is very very rare. Most likely your stop loss is simply a market stop which means it won't get skipped but slippage can happen(market means get me in at any price don't forget). Various ways to protect yourself via limits/bounds. I have no experience with any of these MT4 brokers live so all I can say is do your due diligence But most demo accounts are not reflective of both live conditions and of how a broker operates in a live environment.

Best
Mike
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  #45489  
Old Oct 8, 2009 12:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dg85 View Post
hey guys, I have been lurking for a while absorbing all the info I can and now have freed up some to start to demo trading. I am handling it all pretty well, but I am a bit unsure about inside bars. I got an itchy trigger finger and I took this one on the Eur/Usd and in hindsight I know I probably shouldn't have. I took it just after the high with the stop loss just below the bar. Luckily it has worked out so far. I am just wanting to know how you guys play them and if you think this is an inside bar at all.
Hey DG welcome

I always tell people, from my experience to ignore inside bars until they can grasp the other bars. It isn't b/c inside bars don't offer some high reward situations, it is just that they appear all over b/c they can be caused by so many different reasons that can lead to quite a bit of overtrading and poorly managed trades. Ideally IMO the best Insidebars can be found in similar locations to where we look for other bars like pins. For example an inside bar sitting on a PPZ of support and round number, can offer up a tight stop. Again don't want to discourage any sort of testing, but they can be very tough. For example that inside bar is trading right into the previous days high, which can be a reversal area by itself.

Again welcome to the thread just some of my views
Mike
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  #45501  
Old Oct 8, 2009 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
morning all... just looking through my charts and wondered if i could get a second opinion on these two bars! i don't think either would qualify as a A* pin bar or even a pin bar at all, but their location and strength of their subsequent rejection from the ppz caught my attention.

I know there are variations on the rule but as a trade:

Entry on break of the first pb with 1st tp (and move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp @ 03110 would seem to make sense.

enrty on break of the second pb with 1st tp (an move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp lower at 02810.

kind regards

ic...
Hey IC

For an hourly chart that second bar would catch my interest the most, being a better shaped bar and at a swing high. While not a pin technically(open and close not within prior bar). This is a pretty clear pin by proxy using the other bar highs close by. First trouble area is a bit higher up at the previous bars low, and then the main one being that blue line you marked off.

Just a friendly reminder though as I have seen a lot of 1hr charts and lower to follow the j16 minimum requirements Again not picking on you IC, this was actually one of the better lower timeframe charts .

Best
Mike
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  #45502  
Old Oct 8, 2009 10:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griff35 View Post
Hello all, this is my first post and I have read thru the first 100 pages of this post. Can any body tell me of a chart explaining the pin bar set ups?

thanks in advance

griff

Hey Griff

Welcome to the thread here are some posts to get you started



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=34

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post2752349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post2397993

Also be sure to read post # 1 - 100 times over it contains some of the most important information in this thread. Then begin to work from pg1 through at least until you have a firm grasp. I worked through most of this thread many many times. You will get something new each time.

Here is a nice summary from Josh, that will help keep things more organized to reference as you go along.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Enjoy!

Mike
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  #45505  
Old Oct 8, 2009 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Anybody watching this one?

Reasonable size pin off the 17050 area, 50% fib and with the trend. I'm watching to see if the left eye will hold. Target will be the recent lows around 16750.

Attachment 332488
Hey lj

Since this is a very minor swing high watch out for the immediate trouble area at 1.6900

Mike
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  #45509  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
No, but I'd love to. Been holding some Real GBP for some time waiting to exchange it for CAD.

What server are uou using as I can't, so far, get achart on it.
{other than a Web Quote}
B you can get it on, FXpro, or MB mt4 also

Best

Mike
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  #45501  
Old Oct 8, 2009 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
morning all... just looking through my charts and wondered if i could get a second opinion on these two bars! i don't think either would qualify as a A* pin bar or even a pin bar at all, but their location and strength of their subsequent rejection from the ppz caught my attention.

I know there are variations on the rule but as a trade:

Entry on break of the first pb with 1st tp (and move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp @ 03110 would seem to make sense.

enrty on break of the second pb with 1st tp (an move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp lower at 02810.

kind regards

ic...
Hey IC

For an hourly chart that second bar would catch my interest the most, being a better shaped bar and at a swing high. While not a pin technically(open and close not within prior bar). This is a pretty clear pin by proxy using the other bar highs close by. First trouble area is a bit higher up at the previous bars low, and then the main one being that blue line you marked off.

Just a friendly reminder though as I have seen a lot of 1hr charts and lower to follow the j16 minimum requirements Again not picking on you IC, this was actually one of the better lower timeframe charts .

Best
Mike
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  #45502  
Old Oct 8, 2009 10:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griff35 View Post
Hello all, this is my first post and I have read thru the first 100 pages of this post. Can any body tell me of a chart explaining the pin bar set ups?

thanks in advance

griff

Hey Griff

Welcome to the thread here are some posts to get you started



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=34

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post2752349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post2397993

Also be sure to read post # 1 - 100 times over it contains some of the most important information in this thread. Then begin to work from pg1 through at least until you have a firm grasp. I worked through most of this thread many many times. You will get something new each time.

Here is a nice summary from Josh, that will help keep things more organized to reference as you go along.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Enjoy!

Mike
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  #45505  
Old Oct 8, 2009 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Anybody watching this one?

Reasonable size pin off the 17050 area, 50% fib and with the trend. I'm watching to see if the left eye will hold. Target will be the recent lows around 16750.

Attachment 332488
Hey lj

Since this is a very minor swing high watch out for the immediate trouble area at 1.6900

Mike
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  #45509  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
No, but I'd love to. Been holding some Real GBP for some time waiting to exchange it for CAD.

What server are uou using as I can't, so far, get achart on it.
{other than a Web Quote}
B you can get it on, FXpro, or MB mt4 also

Best

Mike
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  #45501  
Old Oct 8, 2009 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
morning all... just looking through my charts and wondered if i could get a second opinion on these two bars! i don't think either would qualify as a A* pin bar or even a pin bar at all, but their location and strength of their subsequent rejection from the ppz caught my attention.

I know there are variations on the rule but as a trade:

Entry on break of the first pb with 1st tp (and move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp @ 03110 would seem to make sense.

enrty on break of the second pb with 1st tp (an move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp lower at 02810.

kind regards

ic...
Hey IC

For an hourly chart that second bar would catch my interest the most, being a better shaped bar and at a swing high. While not a pin technically(open and close not within prior bar). This is a pretty clear pin by proxy using the other bar highs close by. First trouble area is a bit higher up at the previous bars low, and then the main one being that blue line you marked off.

Just a friendly reminder though as I have seen a lot of 1hr charts and lower to follow the j16 minimum requirements Again not picking on you IC, this was actually one of the better lower timeframe charts .

Best
Mike
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  #45502  
Old Oct 8, 2009 10:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griff35 View Post
Hello all, this is my first post and I have read thru the first 100 pages of this post. Can any body tell me of a chart explaining the pin bar set ups?

thanks in advance

griff

Hey Griff

Welcome to the thread here are some posts to get you started



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=34

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post2752349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post2397993

Also be sure to read post # 1 - 100 times over it contains some of the most important information in this thread. Then begin to work from pg1 through at least until you have a firm grasp. I worked through most of this thread many many times. You will get something new each time.

Here is a nice summary from Josh, that will help keep things more organized to reference as you go along.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Enjoy!

Mike
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  #45505  
Old Oct 8, 2009 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Anybody watching this one?

Reasonable size pin off the 17050 area, 50% fib and with the trend. I'm watching to see if the left eye will hold. Target will be the recent lows around 16750.

Attachment 332488
Hey lj

Since this is a very minor swing high watch out for the immediate trouble area at 1.6900

Mike
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  #45509  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
No, but I'd love to. Been holding some Real GBP for some time waiting to exchange it for CAD.

What server are uou using as I can't, so far, get achart on it.
{other than a Web Quote}
B you can get it on, FXpro, or MB mt4 also

Best

Mike
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  #45501  
Old Oct 8, 2009 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
morning all... just looking through my charts and wondered if i could get a second opinion on these two bars! i don't think either would qualify as a A* pin bar or even a pin bar at all, but their location and strength of their subsequent rejection from the ppz caught my attention.

I know there are variations on the rule but as a trade:

Entry on break of the first pb with 1st tp (and move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp @ 03110 would seem to make sense.

enrty on break of the second pb with 1st tp (an move to b/e @ 03150) 2nd tp lower at 02810.

kind regards

ic...
Hey IC

For an hourly chart that second bar would catch my interest the most, being a better shaped bar and at a swing high. While not a pin technically(open and close not within prior bar). This is a pretty clear pin by proxy using the other bar highs close by. First trouble area is a bit higher up at the previous bars low, and then the main one being that blue line you marked off.

Just a friendly reminder though as I have seen a lot of 1hr charts and lower to follow the j16 minimum requirements Again not picking on you IC, this was actually one of the better lower timeframe charts .

Best
Mike
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  #45502  
Old Oct 8, 2009 10:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griff35 View Post
Hello all, this is my first post and I have read thru the first 100 pages of this post. Can any body tell me of a chart explaining the pin bar set ups?

thanks in advance

griff

Hey Griff

Welcome to the thread here are some posts to get you started



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=34

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post2752349

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post2397993

Also be sure to read post # 1 - 100 times over it contains some of the most important information in this thread. Then begin to work from pg1 through at least until you have a firm grasp. I worked through most of this thread many many times. You will get something new each time.

Here is a nice summary from Josh, that will help keep things more organized to reference as you go along.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Enjoy!

Mike
Reply With Quote
  #45505  
Old Oct 8, 2009 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Anybody watching this one?

Reasonable size pin off the 17050 area, 50% fib and with the trend. I'm watching to see if the left eye will hold. Target will be the recent lows around 16750.

Attachment 332488
Hey lj

Since this is a very minor swing high watch out for the immediate trouble area at 1.6900

Mike
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  #45509  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
No, but I'd love to. Been holding some Real GBP for some time waiting to exchange it for CAD.

What server are uou using as I can't, so far, get achart on it.
{other than a Web Quote}
B you can get it on, FXpro, or MB mt4 also

Best

Mike
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  #45511  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Thanks Mike

Will certainly watch this area very closely. I did notice this but my thinking was this doesn't look like a very significant area in the context of the strong down trend. If price doesn't break through with momentum I'll have my stop quite tight.

That was quick huh
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  #45513  
Old Oct 8, 2009 4:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
Thanks for the reply Mike, firstly no worries i don't feel picked upon i've been trading live for years now (that was me blowing my own trumpet lol) i trade a form of dibs trading on the 1h but like the j16 way i'm very picky on my entries! So any imput you give is much appreciated as i look to add another string to my bow "as is were".

Watched your vids the other day.... great trading.

kind regards

ic
awesome sir
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  #45515  
Old Oct 8, 2009 4:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
When trading daily and weekly we consider a bar to be broken when the price has exceeded high/low of a certain bar for 10 pips.

Does this 10 pip 'rule' change when you move down to 4 hour and 1 hour charts?

For example, would you consider a 5 pip break enough on H4 an H1 to qualify for it?

Another question I have is if anyone here is using some kind of a tool (for MT4) to manage your trade(s). Auto move your stop loss when target 1 is hit for example? The reason for asking beeing that I can't monitor charts all the time during work...
Hey Bee

The buffer rule is not a hard and fast rule. That is for me personally my buffer changes for timeframes/pairs .

I usually give these numbers as a basis.

Weekly 20-40
Daily 10-30
4hr 10-20
1hr 8-15

These are very rough numbers. For example if you use a hard and fast 10 on the daily but that lands you right below a round number, or a bar high, I always find it worth it for a few extra pips to get that confirmation that area is broken.

As for managing EA, here is one but I have never used it or don't know anything about it. So please test


Best
Mike
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  #45524  
Old Oct 8, 2009 8:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Hope you well,may i ask your opinion on a trade i entered yesterday being the Eur/Cad daily pin. Pin had good shape,with trend and round no 1.55.
It also appeared to have room to move but it as you can see did,nt.

Appreciate you thoughts.

Gerard
Hey Gerard for the last few months(back to really late july) price has literally just chopped around(look at two big blue boxes) Look at all the spikes created from highs and lows. The pin you took was very very small and within this "area". So when we play small pins like this(notice size doesn't really stand out versus this mess), in all this traffic, we MUST always be aware of that first trouble area(marked in small blue horizontal box). So it really didn't have much room to go, but it did make it to that first trouble area where it stalled.

Let me know if you can see this

Mike
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  #45511  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Thanks Mike

Will certainly watch this area very closely. I did notice this but my thinking was this doesn't look like a very significant area in the context of the strong down trend. If price doesn't break through with momentum I'll have my stop quite tight.

That was quick huh
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  #45513  
Old Oct 8, 2009 4:02pm
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Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
Thanks for the reply Mike, firstly no worries i don't feel picked upon i've been trading live for years now (that was me blowing my own trumpet lol) i trade a form of dibs trading on the 1h but like the j16 way i'm very picky on my entries! So any imput you give is much appreciated as i look to add another string to my bow "as is were".

Watched your vids the other day.... great trading.

kind regards

ic
awesome sir
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  #45515  
Old Oct 8, 2009 4:51pm
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Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
When trading daily and weekly we consider a bar to be broken when the price has exceeded high/low of a certain bar for 10 pips.

Does this 10 pip 'rule' change when you move down to 4 hour and 1 hour charts?

For example, would you consider a 5 pip break enough on H4 an H1 to qualify for it?

Another question I have is if anyone here is using some kind of a tool (for MT4) to manage your trade(s). Auto move your stop loss when target 1 is hit for example? The reason for asking beeing that I can't monitor charts all the time during work...
Hey Bee

The buffer rule is not a hard and fast rule. That is for me personally my buffer changes for timeframes/pairs .

I usually give these numbers as a basis.

Weekly 20-40
Daily 10-30
4hr 10-20
1hr 8-15

These are very rough numbers. For example if you use a hard and fast 10 on the daily but that lands you right below a round number, or a bar high, I always find it worth it for a few extra pips to get that confirmation that area is broken.

As for managing EA, here is one but I have never used it or don't know anything about it. So please test


Best
Mike
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  #45524  
Old Oct 8, 2009 8:06pm
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Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Hope you well,may i ask your opinion on a trade i entered yesterday being the Eur/Cad daily pin. Pin had good shape,with trend and round no 1.55.
It also appeared to have room to move but it as you can see did,nt.

Appreciate you thoughts.

Gerard
Hey Gerard for the last few months(back to really late july) price has literally just chopped around(look at two big blue boxes) Look at all the spikes created from highs and lows. The pin you took was very very small and within this "area". So when we play small pins like this(notice size doesn't really stand out versus this mess), in all this traffic, we MUST always be aware of that first trouble area(marked in small blue horizontal box). So it really didn't have much room to go, but it did make it to that first trouble area where it stalled.

Let me know if you can see this

Mike
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  #45511  
Old Oct 8, 2009 2:37pm
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Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Thanks Mike

Will certainly watch this area very closely. I did notice this but my thinking was this doesn't look like a very significant area in the context of the strong down trend. If price doesn't break through with momentum I'll have my stop quite tight.

That was quick huh
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Old Oct 8, 2009 4:02pm
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Originally Posted by icarusfx View Post
Thanks for the reply Mike, firstly no worries i don't feel picked upon i've been trading live for years now (that was me blowing my own trumpet lol) i trade a form of dibs trading on the 1h but like the j16 way i'm very picky on my entries! So any imput you give is much appreciated as i look to add another string to my bow "as is were".

Watched your vids the other day.... great trading.

kind regards

ic
awesome sir
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  #45515  
Old Oct 8, 2009 4:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
When trading daily and weekly we consider a bar to be broken when the price has exceeded high/low of a certain bar for 10 pips.

Does this 10 pip 'rule' change when you move down to 4 hour and 1 hour charts?

For example, would you consider a 5 pip break enough on H4 an H1 to qualify for it?

Another question I have is if anyone here is using some kind of a tool (for MT4) to manage your trade(s). Auto move your stop loss when target 1 is hit for example? The reason for asking beeing that I can't monitor charts all the time during work...
Hey Bee

The buffer rule is not a hard and fast rule. That is for me personally my buffer changes for timeframes/pairs .

I usually give these numbers as a basis.

Weekly 20-40
Daily 10-30
4hr 10-20
1hr 8-15

These are very rough numbers. For example if you use a hard and fast 10 on the daily but that lands you right below a round number, or a bar high, I always find it worth it for a few extra pips to get that confirmation that area is broken.

As for managing EA, here is one but I have never used it or don't know anything about it. So please test


Best
Mike
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  #45524  
Old Oct 8, 2009 8:06pm
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Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Mike

Hope you well,may i ask your opinion on a trade i entered yesterday being the Eur/Cad daily pin. Pin had good shape,with trend and round no 1.55.
It also appeared to have room to move but it as you can see did,nt.

Appreciate you thoughts.

Gerard
Hey Gerard for the last few months(back to really late july) price has literally just chopped around(look at two big blue boxes) Look at all the spikes created from highs and lows. The pin you took was very very small and within this "area". So when we play small pins like this(notice size doesn't really stand out versus this mess), in all this traffic, we MUST always be aware of that first trouble area(marked in small blue horizontal box). So it really didn't have much room to go, but it did make it to that first trouble area where it stalled.

Let me know if you can see this

Mike
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  #45538  
Old Oct 9, 2009 1:09am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
jim if u dont mind me asking, What were the basis of these trades. I know you have a tonne of experience but, i cant see any pins or anything. I guess my question is, were all these trades based purely around the fact that price touched key support or resistance levels? and for the A/J it broke a key level?

sorry I hope I havnt lost the plot, im at work
Even I almost pulled the trigger on the A/J for a pure breakout

Notice all the bar highs. When you get multiple within a short span. Orderflow builds above that, that even if it is a false breakout, it will still push hard enough (stops + buys) for a "burst" breakout. We can still look to this former area for PA as well on a pullback

Not coincidentally this lines up with the 80 mark round number. Buy stop can go above this(safe would be 15-20 pips above the highest high

Mike
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  #45539  
Old Oct 9, 2009 1:11am
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This is another example of one I actually took. Those that know me know I don't play to many pure breaks but these are the rare circumstances that I do.

Just an expansion to the a/j

Mike
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Old Oct 9, 2009 1:09am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
jim if u dont mind me asking, What were the basis of these trades. I know you have a tonne of experience but, i cant see any pins or anything. I guess my question is, were all these trades based purely around the fact that price touched key support or resistance levels? and for the A/J it broke a key level?

sorry I hope I havnt lost the plot, im at work
Even I almost pulled the trigger on the A/J for a pure breakout

Notice all the bar highs. When you get multiple within a short span. Orderflow builds above that, that even if it is a false breakout, it will still push hard enough (stops + buys) for a "burst" breakout. We can still look to this former area for PA as well on a pullback

Not coincidentally this lines up with the 80 mark round number. Buy stop can go above this(safe would be 15-20 pips above the highest high

Mike
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Old Oct 9, 2009 1:11am
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This is another example of one I actually took. Those that know me know I don't play to many pure breaks but these are the rare circumstances that I do.

Just an expansion to the a/j

Mike
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Old Oct 9, 2009 1:09am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
jim if u dont mind me asking, What were the basis of these trades. I know you have a tonne of experience but, i cant see any pins or anything. I guess my question is, were all these trades based purely around the fact that price touched key support or resistance levels? and for the A/J it broke a key level?

sorry I hope I havnt lost the plot, im at work
Even I almost pulled the trigger on the A/J for a pure breakout

Notice all the bar highs. When you get multiple within a short span. Orderflow builds above that, that even if it is a false breakout, it will still push hard enough (stops + buys) for a "burst" breakout. We can still look to this former area for PA as well on a pullback

Not coincidentally this lines up with the 80 mark round number. Buy stop can go above this(safe would be 15-20 pips above the highest high

Mike
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  #45539  
Old Oct 9, 2009 1:11am
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This is another example of one I actually took. Those that know me know I don't play to many pure breaks but these are the rare circumstances that I do.

Just an expansion to the a/j

Mike
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  #45562  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:20am
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you two are nuts
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  #45566  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:26am
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don't people get dogs anymore , not things that can eat your dogs
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  #45569  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:37am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ever bred rats Jim? Heard it's pretty simple, crazy things just know 2 things. 1) eat 2) ****
add drink beer in there and sounds like some of my best friends
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  #45562  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:20am
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you two are nuts
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  #45566  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:26am
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don't people get dogs anymore , not things that can eat your dogs
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  #45569  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:37am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ever bred rats Jim? Heard it's pretty simple, crazy things just know 2 things. 1) eat 2) ****
add drink beer in there and sounds like some of my best friends
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  #45562  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:20am
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you two are nuts
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  #45566  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:26am
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don't people get dogs anymore , not things that can eat your dogs
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  #45569  
Old Oct 9, 2009 3:37am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ever bred rats Jim? Heard it's pretty simple, crazy things just know 2 things. 1) eat 2) ****
add drink beer in there and sounds like some of my best friends
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  #45609  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:10pm
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Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
thanks for the input!! but i have a few questions

-what do you mean trading agaisnt PPZ? from what i understand, PPZ is a critical area where it tends to be a support/resistance, am i right?




-it is logical that the BEOB(or is it double bar high with lower close??) signals a downtrend and hence determines the direction of the daily trend...thanks!
-however, how did you get 1.5656 as resistance? will it be too much trouble to plot the resistance and fibs out for me? i'm still trying to learn and i'll greatly appreciate it



-yes...
Hey Arthur

Someone else asked about his and I posted my explanation

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45527

Summary
Don't ignore what type of envirornment a bar is in. If price has been chopping around it will continue to do so, at your expense if we let it.

And size matters. Period. Paragraph. One of the keys to my trading is right there. SIZE.

Have a great weekend
Mike
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  #45613  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:17pm
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
you are right in your assumption about the PPZ it's an area where price flip both side.

a picture will talk by itself

edit: LOL just saw where the text label (PPZ) it's now,it should be at left side off the blue box,

Attachment 333349

Yea when I see massive amounts of highs, and lows like that(ie price spiking) within a short time period. Trading that market is almost not happening for me at least on that time frame. The only way i will is if a big huge bar comes in clearly tipping the markets hand at a good location(ie the bottom or top).

Best
Mike
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  #45627  
Old Oct 9, 2009 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Thanks for your detailed answer

Could you just tell me what is actually a BUOB (silly question, I know )
Welcome to the thread Nos

I will help ya out ;P

BUOB = Bullish Outside Bar (bar that totally engulfs previous bar that is it has a lower low then previous bar and a higher higher then previous bar. We want the close to be near the upper portion of the bar(top 1/4).
BEOB = Bearish Outside Bar

Here are some BUOBs and Beobs
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=19

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11011

Best

Mike


YANKEES ROLL CALL!!!!!!! WHO'S WITH ME?! JIM!?
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  #45609  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
thanks for the input!! but i have a few questions

-what do you mean trading agaisnt PPZ? from what i understand, PPZ is a critical area where it tends to be a support/resistance, am i right?




-it is logical that the BEOB(or is it double bar high with lower close??) signals a downtrend and hence determines the direction of the daily trend...thanks!
-however, how did you get 1.5656 as resistance? will it be too much trouble to plot the resistance and fibs out for me? i'm still trying to learn and i'll greatly appreciate it



-yes...
Hey Arthur

Someone else asked about his and I posted my explanation

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45527

Summary
Don't ignore what type of envirornment a bar is in. If price has been chopping around it will continue to do so, at your expense if we let it.

And size matters. Period. Paragraph. One of the keys to my trading is right there. SIZE.

Have a great weekend
Mike
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  #45613  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
you are right in your assumption about the PPZ it's an area where price flip both side.

a picture will talk by itself

edit: LOL just saw where the text label (PPZ) it's now,it should be at left side off the blue box,

Attachment 333349

Yea when I see massive amounts of highs, and lows like that(ie price spiking) within a short time period. Trading that market is almost not happening for me at least on that time frame. The only way i will is if a big huge bar comes in clearly tipping the markets hand at a good location(ie the bottom or top).

Best
Mike
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  #45609  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
thanks for the input!! but i have a few questions

-what do you mean trading agaisnt PPZ? from what i understand, PPZ is a critical area where it tends to be a support/resistance, am i right?




-it is logical that the BEOB(or is it double bar high with lower close??) signals a downtrend and hence determines the direction of the daily trend...thanks!
-however, how did you get 1.5656 as resistance? will it be too much trouble to plot the resistance and fibs out for me? i'm still trying to learn and i'll greatly appreciate it



-yes...
Hey Arthur

Someone else asked about his and I posted my explanation

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45527

Summary
Don't ignore what type of envirornment a bar is in. If price has been chopping around it will continue to do so, at your expense if we let it.

And size matters. Period. Paragraph. One of the keys to my trading is right there. SIZE.

Have a great weekend
Mike
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  #45613  
Old Oct 9, 2009 12:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
you are right in your assumption about the PPZ it's an area where price flip both side.

a picture will talk by itself

edit: LOL just saw where the text label (PPZ) it's now,it should be at left side off the blue box,

Attachment 333349

Yea when I see massive amounts of highs, and lows like that(ie price spiking) within a short time period. Trading that market is almost not happening for me at least on that time frame. The only way i will is if a big huge bar comes in clearly tipping the markets hand at a good location(ie the bottom or top).

Best
Mike
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  #45627  
Old Oct 9, 2009 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Thanks for your detailed answer

Could you just tell me what is actually a BUOB (silly question, I know )
Welcome to the thread Nos

I will help ya out ;P

BUOB = Bullish Outside Bar (bar that totally engulfs previous bar that is it has a lower low then previous bar and a higher higher then previous bar. We want the close to be near the upper portion of the bar(top 1/4).
BEOB = Bearish Outside Bar

Here are some BUOBs and Beobs
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=19

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11011

Best

Mike


YANKEES ROLL CALL!!!!!!! WHO'S WITH ME?! JIM!?
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  #45695  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smjones View Post
" [i]James16:
i love this place and i love the people that are behind it and i will never speak badly of them but i will tell you what i think about the forum.

forex factory has/is making some terrible mistakes in my opinion and i wont stay unless it stops.

im just a regular guy here and i dont feel high and mighty in any way, shape or form but if my tenure here means anything to them then im gonna try my best to get there attention.

forex factory DOES NOT have to go down the same road that moneytec did just for the sake of "business"

moneytec...
must be very tough for you two, who literally help build this place to what it is

Scott you used to spend so much time cleaning up the crap, those were the days of great modding with you antra etc. I ENJOYED the main side very much too outside of this thread. I go over to just peek in on some friends. That is it.

Mike
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  #45696  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kesh View Post
hi, ive been reading this thread for the past 3 months or so and have just registered now to say thanks to jim and also mike whos posts ive found truly eye opening.

i started trading about a year ago, began by reading a couple of books and a few articles on the internet and thought it would be a piece of cake to get the hang of and quicky double, treble, quadrouple my money.

i wont bore you with all the details but i blew 3 x ?2000 accounts in that time without having a clue what i was doing. you name it i did it - went on tilt, chased losses,...
Welcome Kesh!

You are doing the right thing by going back to demo and taking things slow. Hell of a good first trade

And yes Josh, last night was nuts. Thought you had us for sure in the 11th , tough loss for you guys

Best
Mike
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  #45697  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i'm watching that usd/cad trade as well.

i've drawn a fib retracement and the 61.8 is in the same zone as the weekly pivot...
-can i say they are in 'confluence'?
-and is my fib drawn correctly?

*the turqoise line is the weekly ppz
Hey arthur

Yep your fib is drawn correct, and yes we are approaching some nice confluence, but we have to be patient and let the market show us its hand

Mike
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  #45698  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
I want to start to incorporate divergence into my trading so I wanted to look for a recent example. Please take a look at this and tell me whether I'm on the right track.

Looking at the 2-pin there. Yes/No ?

Yep this is divergence.

Hey scottie pippin

As long as price is going in a different direction then your MACD. So price is going lower in this case, and the macd is going higher. So they are diverging

Best
Mike
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  #45703  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet View Post
Those were the days eh Mike?

Still, there have been friendships made here that will continue (as will J16 in whatever form), whether FF is still here or not

Have yourself a great weekend matey!

Kind Regards
Steve
Steve my friend! Someone I have known from day 1, what a guy he is

Be good steve and hope your son is still doing well

Mike
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  #45704  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
Thanks Mike,
So would you say that divergence is a must or rather a plus that gives more confidence in a setup? Cause going through I see alot of setups without divergence that I can tell. It seems to show up around double tops/bottoms, has to do with price exhaustion?
Divergence is a tool to be used as such. Sometimes you have trades that don't show, sometimes you do. Some people only trade divergence + PA + double tops/bottoms. Divergence can be deadly if you wait for the good locations/PA. Example double bottom, round number, very big buob. This is an A+ setup any day of the week for me

Best
Mike
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  #45705  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i see quite a good setup forming in the usd/jpy weekly chart

-MACD divergence
-triple bottom?
-hitting previous support

comments/criticism?

my question is, what if i use the daily timeframe to look for an entry point, but the bars DO NOT form any price action bars/pinbars etc at the bottom, is it advisable to trade?

*the turqoise lines are confluence fib levels
Depends on how you trade. Some people will play a pure touch of these areas(ala raczefx double bottom/top plays). That is you put a buy limit, or sell limit at these double bottoms/tops respectfully. Others will only wait for PA to show up, and if none then we pass.

Mike
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Old Oct 9, 2009 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Thanks for your detailed answer

Could you just tell me what is actually a BUOB (silly question, I know )
Welcome to the thread Nos

I will help ya out ;P

BUOB = Bullish Outside Bar (bar that totally engulfs previous bar that is it has a lower low then previous bar and a higher higher then previous bar. We want the close to be near the upper portion of the bar(top 1/4).
BEOB = Bearish Outside Bar

Here are some BUOBs and Beobs
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=19

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11011

Best

Mike


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  #45713  
Old Oct 10, 2009 2:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Mike, i didn't get the chance to thank you for carifying the ancronyn BUOB (I search for it and found it).

In that setup, after the BUOB when should we enter the trade? 10 pips above the top of BUOB?

A few pages ago I posted some pictures with a ongoing GBPUSD trade. If you have the time I would like to have your short comment.

Cheers,
Nos
Hey Nos

Generally the buffer is 10 pips above the high. But it will vary for me. See this post here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45518

As for the gbp/usd. Yes that is a valid trade. I would like to see you be more picky about your bars since you are still learning this. That will be your greatest asset if learned early. You can see the first trouble area of this trade was right where your red line is now on that chart(where your stop line is). Those bar highs could have been the first problem area. It looks as if you went to even b/e there you could have caught the next leg of that move. Then the most major trouble area was the recent swing high as of that time it was just breaking that. As you can see after running those highs it reversed quick.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45752  
Old Oct 11, 2009 3:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
First let me thank you Mike, for clarifying the '10 pip brake' rule.

I fell like I'm always behind with posts here, but this thread is growing really fast

Anyway, I have another question about this trade you took/posted. As far as I understand BEOB was the PA on this one, also other criteria was met. All clear on that part. The thing is I find BEOB's more difficult to trade than PIN's, so having you explain how you managed this trade in terms of SL an PT's would be really helpful.

I hope I'm not asking too much.

Kind regards,

Bee
Hey Bee

I trade pins and outside bars the same way,. That is my entry is above the high of the BUOB and stop loss below the low. As price moves in my favor with a trade like this I began to slowly move my stop up and reduce my risk. I do this when I want to hang onto a trade and believe it has more room to run, which this setup I did. We have sine stalled around 143 so i will look again to get my stop up a bit higher as the markets open and begin moving again. Each trade situation is different trade mgmt style for me.

here is a post I made to give a general idea of things I look for

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36494

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45795  
Old Oct 12, 2009 2:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travpip View Post
ummm

what is PPZ...i know it is the area of support/resistance...but does it stand for:

Price particiaption zone........its bugging me

http://www.abbreviations.com/.PPZ
Hey Trav

PPZ is a term coined by James, so you won't find it else where

It stands for Price Pivot Zone

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Best
Mike
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  #45695  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smjones View Post
" [i]James16:
i love this place and i love the people that are behind it and i will never speak badly of them but i will tell you what i think about the forum.

forex factory has/is making some terrible mistakes in my opinion and i wont stay unless it stops.

im just a regular guy here and i dont feel high and mighty in any way, shape or form but if my tenure here means anything to them then im gonna try my best to get there attention.

forex factory DOES NOT have to go down the same road that moneytec did just for the sake of "business"

moneytec...
must be very tough for you two, who literally help build this place to what it is

Scott you used to spend so much time cleaning up the crap, those were the days of great modding with you antra etc. I ENJOYED the main side very much too outside of this thread. I go over to just peek in on some friends. That is it.

Mike
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  #45696  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kesh View Post
hi, ive been reading this thread for the past 3 months or so and have just registered now to say thanks to jim and also mike whos posts ive found truly eye opening.

i started trading about a year ago, began by reading a couple of books and a few articles on the internet and thought it would be a piece of cake to get the hang of and quicky double, treble, quadrouple my money.

i wont bore you with all the details but i blew 3 x ?2000 accounts in that time without having a clue what i was doing. you name it i did it - went on tilt, chased losses,...
Welcome Kesh!

You are doing the right thing by going back to demo and taking things slow. Hell of a good first trade

And yes Josh, last night was nuts. Thought you had us for sure in the 11th , tough loss for you guys

Best
Mike
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  #45697  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i'm watching that usd/cad trade as well.

i've drawn a fib retracement and the 61.8 is in the same zone as the weekly pivot...
-can i say they are in 'confluence'?
-and is my fib drawn correctly?

*the turqoise line is the weekly ppz
Hey arthur

Yep your fib is drawn correct, and yes we are approaching some nice confluence, but we have to be patient and let the market show us its hand

Mike
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  #45698  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
I want to start to incorporate divergence into my trading so I wanted to look for a recent example. Please take a look at this and tell me whether I'm on the right track.

Looking at the 2-pin there. Yes/No ?

Yep this is divergence.

Hey scottie pippin

As long as price is going in a different direction then your MACD. So price is going lower in this case, and the macd is going higher. So they are diverging

Best
Mike
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  #45703  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:25pm
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Originally Posted by steviet View Post
Those were the days eh Mike?

Still, there have been friendships made here that will continue (as will J16 in whatever form), whether FF is still here or not

Have yourself a great weekend matey!

Kind Regards
Steve
Steve my friend! Someone I have known from day 1, what a guy he is

Be good steve and hope your son is still doing well

Mike
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  #45704  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
Thanks Mike,
So would you say that divergence is a must or rather a plus that gives more confidence in a setup? Cause going through I see alot of setups without divergence that I can tell. It seems to show up around double tops/bottoms, has to do with price exhaustion?
Divergence is a tool to be used as such. Sometimes you have trades that don't show, sometimes you do. Some people only trade divergence + PA + double tops/bottoms. Divergence can be deadly if you wait for the good locations/PA. Example double bottom, round number, very big buob. This is an A+ setup any day of the week for me

Best
Mike
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  #45705  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i see quite a good setup forming in the usd/jpy weekly chart

-MACD divergence
-triple bottom?
-hitting previous support

comments/criticism?

my question is, what if i use the daily timeframe to look for an entry point, but the bars DO NOT form any price action bars/pinbars etc at the bottom, is it advisable to trade?

*the turqoise lines are confluence fib levels
Depends on how you trade. Some people will play a pure touch of these areas(ala raczefx double bottom/top plays). That is you put a buy limit, or sell limit at these double bottoms/tops respectfully. Others will only wait for PA to show up, and if none then we pass.

Mike
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  #45713  
Old Oct 10, 2009 2:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
Mike, i didn't get the chance to thank you for carifying the ancronyn BUOB (I search for it and found it).

In that setup, after the BUOB when should we enter the trade? 10 pips above the top of BUOB?

A few pages ago I posted some pictures with a ongoing GBPUSD trade. If you have the time I would like to have your short comment.

Cheers,
Nos
Hey Nos

Generally the buffer is 10 pips above the high. But it will vary for me. See this post here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45518

As for the gbp/usd. Yes that is a valid trade. I would like to see you be more picky about your bars since you are still learning this. That will be your greatest asset if learned early. You can see the first trouble area of this trade was right where your red line is now on that chart(where your stop line is). Those bar highs could have been the first problem area. It looks as if you went to even b/e there you could have caught the next leg of that move. Then the most major trouble area was the recent swing high as of that time it was just breaking that. As you can see after running those highs it reversed quick.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45836  
Old Oct 12, 2009 2:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
This is tattooed on my forehead.
you must have a big forehead
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  #45695  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smjones View Post
" [i]James16:
i love this place and i love the people that are behind it and i will never speak badly of them but i will tell you what i think about the forum.

forex factory has/is making some terrible mistakes in my opinion and i wont stay unless it stops.

im just a regular guy here and i dont feel high and mighty in any way, shape or form but if my tenure here means anything to them then im gonna try my best to get there attention.

forex factory DOES NOT have to go down the same road that moneytec did just for the sake of "business"

moneytec...
must be very tough for you two, who literally help build this place to what it is

Scott you used to spend so much time cleaning up the crap, those were the days of great modding with you antra etc. I ENJOYED the main side very much too outside of this thread. I go over to just peek in on some friends. That is it.

Mike
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  #45696  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kesh View Post
hi, ive been reading this thread for the past 3 months or so and have just registered now to say thanks to jim and also mike whos posts ive found truly eye opening.

i started trading about a year ago, began by reading a couple of books and a few articles on the internet and thought it would be a piece of cake to get the hang of and quicky double, treble, quadrouple my money.

i wont bore you with all the details but i blew 3 x ?2000 accounts in that time without having a clue what i was doing. you name it i did it - went on tilt, chased losses,...
Welcome Kesh!

You are doing the right thing by going back to demo and taking things slow. Hell of a good first trade

And yes Josh, last night was nuts. Thought you had us for sure in the 11th , tough loss for you guys

Best
Mike
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  #45697  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i'm watching that usd/cad trade as well.

i've drawn a fib retracement and the 61.8 is in the same zone as the weekly pivot...
-can i say they are in 'confluence'?
-and is my fib drawn correctly?

*the turqoise line is the weekly ppz
Hey arthur

Yep your fib is drawn correct, and yes we are approaching some nice confluence, but we have to be patient and let the market show us its hand

Mike
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  #45698  
Old Oct 10, 2009 12:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
I want to start to incorporate divergence into my trading so I wanted to look for a recent example. Please take a look at this and tell me whether I'm on the right track.

Looking at the 2-pin there. Yes/No ?

Yep this is divergence.

Hey scottie pippin

As long as price is going in a different direction then your MACD. So price is going lower in this case, and the macd is going higher. So they are diverging

Best
Mike
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  #45703  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet View Post
Those were the days eh Mike?

Still, there have been friendships made here that will continue (as will J16 in whatever form), whether FF is still here or not

Have yourself a great weekend matey!

Kind Regards
Steve
Steve my friend! Someone I have known from day 1, what a guy he is

Be good steve and hope your son is still doing well

Mike
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  #45704  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
Thanks Mike,
So would you say that divergence is a must or rather a plus that gives more confidence in a setup? Cause going through I see alot of setups without divergence that I can tell. It seems to show up around double tops/bottoms, has to do with price exhaustion?
Divergence is a tool to be used as such. Sometimes you have trades that don't show, sometimes you do. Some people only trade divergence + PA + double tops/bottoms. Divergence can be deadly if you wait for the good locations/PA. Example double bottom, round number, very big buob. This is an A+ setup any day of the week for me

Best
Mike
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  #45705  
Old Oct 10, 2009 1:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i see quite a good setup forming in the usd/jpy weekly chart

-MACD divergence
-triple bottom?
-hitting previous support

comments/criticism?

my question is, what if i use the daily timeframe to look for an entry point, but the bars DO NOT form any price action bars/pinbars etc at the bottom, is it advisable to trade?

*the turqoise lines are confluence fib levels
Depends on how you trade. Some people will play a pure touch of these areas(ala raczefx double bottom/top plays). That is you put a buy limit, or sell limit at these double bottoms/tops respectfully. Others will only wait for PA to show up, and if none then we pass.

Mike
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  #45852  
Old Oct 12, 2009 5:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teodosy87 View Post
Hello to everyone, this is the first time i post something here, but most important is that this is not the first time i come here to learn.This is the place where like many before me i came to see how the real things are done.Like all know there is nothing more important than knowing how to read PA and that`s why we all try to learn.I do not want to boared you to death i just want to share some thoughts whit all of you.

Welcome to the thread Teodosy
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  #45855  
Old Oct 12, 2009 5:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glyder View Post
Is this a poss touch trade candidate? (for demo)
It has at least three touches on daily chart.
nearest ppz is way back on the monthly in 1990.
Looks a b
it risky to me on reflection, but....
I am no touch trade expert, so I will let someone else give you an answer, but I would like to see price move away from this area then a better touch trade next time it tests it say as a double bottom. To me it looks like price consolidating on top of the 11 mark, before a possible break down(I would rather see a false breakout lower ).

Hopefully one of the touch masters can come in here though

Mike
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  #45752  
Old Oct 11, 2009 3:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
First let me thank you Mike, for clarifying the '10 pip brake' rule.

I fell like I'm always behind with posts here, but this thread is growing really fast

Anyway, I have another question about this trade you took/posted. As far as I understand BEOB was the PA on this one, also other criteria was met. All clear on that part. The thing is I find BEOB's more difficult to trade than PIN's, so having you explain how you managed this trade in terms of SL an PT's would be really helpful.

I hope I'm not asking too much.

Kind regards,

Bee
Hey Bee

I trade pins and outside bars the same way,. That is my entry is above the high of the BUOB and stop loss below the low. As price moves in my favor with a trade like this I began to slowly move my stop up and reduce my risk. I do this when I want to hang onto a trade and believe it has more room to run, which this setup I did. We have sine stalled around 143 so i will look again to get my stop up a bit higher as the markets open and begin moving again. Each trade situation is different trade mgmt style for me.

here is a post I made to give a general idea of things I look for

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36494

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45935  
Old Oct 13, 2009 12:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by verno View Post
I was reviewing one of Mikes breakout videos at the weekend and thought this trade fitted the bill. The breakout level isn't perfectly defined but I figure its a valid PPZ.

One chart is daily highlighting level, the other is showing retrace to level and PA at level to indicate buying / support.

Any views?
Pretty close verno

Here is how I would have drawn it
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  #45948  
Old Oct 13, 2009 4:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
yea, i'm watching USD/CAD as well...

however, on the daily, the pin doesnt look nice and long
can this be considered an A+ trade?

Small bar, at a swing low, but lots of divergence. Is it A+, based on bar size I would say definitely not (think falling knife). Is it playable? Depends on your methods. I would rather wait it out and watch the smaller timeframes. A jarroo style would look for a hard break any signs of failure cut out for b/e or a small loss.

Just my 2 cents
Mike
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  #45950  
Old Oct 13, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
when u say watch the smaller timeframes, what should i be looking for?
as for the daily timeframe, i think it'll be safer to wait for 1 or 2 more bars to show? but if i do that, what should i be paying attention to?
Hey Arthur

My first answer has to be(and this is not just to you of course, we have to say this every few pages or we wouldn't be looking out for everyones best interest), have you followed the j16 minimum requirements on page 1, that is you are able to trade daily/weekly? Before that I am highly against people jumping down.

My other answer would be, I am going to watch the 1.0500 area for more clear signals, bigger bars. Or any potential breakout patterns forming for a more of a base.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #45955  
Old Oct 13, 2009 5:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
by bigger bars, do u mean long rising bars, that may or may not have to be BUOB?

and what do u mean by 'potential breakout patterns'?

thanks for your patience
Hey Arthuer

Basically my way of putting all this together keeps me out of times like that on the daily. What I mean(as you can see the usd/cad end of day turned to crap bar anyway). But had it closed as is on the charts before, the daily just have sharp bearish move after sharp bearish move. Day closed as a pin. But we have to remember a bar by itself does not mean reversal. In this case I see a pinbar at the end of a huge run(a small one) as nothing more then a pause. Almost a neutral bar in my mind(even though it is a pin). This pause can mean a plethora of things but not enough to say hey time to buy for me. So what I do is look for clues in different ways. One would be to look higher to the first real trouble area towards 1.05 for clues(both bullish or bearish) at the ppz.

Here is what I really think happens to most people, and believe me guilty as charged at some point as well so no one take it personal. We start scanning our charts for reasons to enter. We start to see any type bar forming and we just get so excited about possibly being "in" the market. So we see a small pin at a swing low, some divergence and say, "it is good enough". Well I decided to say forget good enough I want great, or I want a stricter rule set to keep me out of the good enough. And when is good enough ACTUALLY good enough. So you start to add in some more factors(there are many you can use and as we see many people have different rule sets).

As you gain the experience, you can see things over and over that you just know are situations you may or may not be involved in. In this case(and their are too many to outright list - hence 3k pages ), we have a small pin after a large run down. My thought process at the most basic is, well we are starting to see buyers come in or profit takers, I will wait for something better to show up or at least substantial, no need to catching that falling knife.

Bit of a ramble, but it wouldn't be me if I didn't

Mike
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  #45956  
Old Oct 13, 2009 5:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Your answers are always a sign posts (at least for me). I'm a real beginner and a noob at the same time so I apologise for my ignorance (it's not the result of a sinister personality rather being unelightened)
By the 1.0500 are do you mean formation of the "box" and then breaking it or do you mean breaking of the downtrend
Have no idea as the 150 and 360 MA are not there as well. I think this can be a Fib retracement but couldn't locate it as well.
The only thing apart from this "box thing" is 1.0500 a level to break long term resistance...
Hey J

I have marked 4 possible areas too look for trades(where each arrow is (for example long or short off the 1.5 area, long off the double bottom area, or again long if the 1.5 turns to support after a bounce off the double bottom). Any or none of these scenarios could occur. But I won't be surprised, caught off guard by the market. instead I will react IF I get the PA I need. Others will simply play touches of these areas. Again style is a big factor. I will simply wait for some nice PA.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45795  
Old Oct 12, 2009 2:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travpip View Post
ummm

what is PPZ...i know it is the area of support/resistance...but does it stand for:

Price particiaption zone........its bugging me

http://www.abbreviations.com/.PPZ
Hey Trav

PPZ is a term coined by James, so you won't find it else where

It stands for Price Pivot Zone

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Best
Mike
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  #45972  
Old Oct 13, 2009 7:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
$ indeed

Thanks for the answer. Anyway, I'm still on daily charts but I wasn't clear about what I wanted to say. I was talking about bar closing time and not period.

Thanks again for your kind answers.
James uses the IBFX close while posting here, which is an 8pm est closing time. I use a 5pm est FXpro. Others use something in between. I think whatever is comfortable with you. I just prefer closer to NY close.

Best
Mike
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  #45836  
Old Oct 12, 2009 2:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
This is tattooed on my forehead.
you must have a big forehead
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  #45852  
Old Oct 12, 2009 5:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teodosy87 View Post
Hello to everyone, this is the first time i post something here, but most important is that this is not the first time i come here to learn.This is the place where like many before me i came to see how the real things are done.Like all know there is nothing more important than knowing how to read PA and that`s why we all try to learn.I do not want to boared you to death i just want to share some thoughts whit all of you.

Welcome to the thread Teodosy
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  #45855  
Old Oct 12, 2009 5:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glyder View Post
Is this a poss touch trade candidate? (for demo)
It has at least three touches on daily chart.
nearest ppz is way back on the monthly in 1990.
Looks a b
it risky to me on reflection, but....
I am no touch trade expert, so I will let someone else give you an answer, but I would like to see price move away from this area then a better touch trade next time it tests it say as a double bottom. To me it looks like price consolidating on top of the 11 mark, before a possible break down(I would rather see a false breakout lower ).

Hopefully one of the touch masters can come in here though

Mike
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  #46053  
Old Oct 14, 2009 5:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
hey people, not much action on the daily's is there?
nope
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  #46055  
Old Oct 14, 2009 5:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benem View Post
On my broker i've found this:
1) Pin forming on a pull back after a broken pattern,
2) 0,93 round number
3) 38% fib

i don't see any PPZ...do you???
But i like this set up.First trouble area at 0.94.
Remember we want to see bullish pins at swing lows, this is a swing high. First trouble area would then become 9375-80 area. Aggressive trade
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  #46062  
Old Oct 14, 2009 6:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benem View Post
As Mike told me few post above i think it's another pair where we don't have a swing low in an up trend.....seems more a swing high......
Yeah, like a bullish pin, we want BUOBs at swing lows. Now of course you can play them as continuations, I do, but I consider that more advanced, and always recommend getting a hang of it the way taught here by James before taking them at other spots.

Best
Mike
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  #46068  
Old Oct 14, 2009 11:16pm
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Hello everyone,

I really need some feedback. Mike, please feel free. I entered this trade below on the GBPUSD Daily chart based on the BUOVB.

My thoughts were: BUOVB, Divergence, and some traffic at 1.6000 round number.

1. Entered close to the 1.5900 level on the slight retrace after the BUOVB...

Hey DW,

I am extremely impressed by your trade analysis. This is about word for word what I spoke about in my webinar yesterday. The BUOB was at the location we look for but we MUST be aware of trading into the traffic ppz level at 1.6000. You did exactly this, and now have protected yourself and managed accordingly.

Impressive and others should take note

Mike
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  #46072  
Old Oct 15, 2009 12:30am
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Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
i want to know if this is considered a divergence?

i'm asking because i'm not looking at the 2 lows in between...does it still count? or the divergence has to be between 2 consecutive lows?
Hey Arthur

That is still divergence, but a sign that a stronger trend is under way so just be "cautious".

Best
Mike
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  #46077  
Old Oct 15, 2009 1:37am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
how bout just dont use div and focus on good bars at good locations?
sure you can take this all any way you really want. I think it is a real good tool and can give you a heads up on whats to come and more confidence. Again just a tool.

Mike
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  #46130  
Old Oct 15, 2009 4:48pm
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Originally Posted by Hwd View Post
Thank you for the feedback Mike. I got out at the 1.6100 level.

However, I was not sure how to proceed after reaching that known resistance point. I know that you always say managing the trade is up to the person, which I agree with, but brainstorming a bit I was wondering if

1. I should have taken some more profits there (most of my lots) and let the rest trail by say 40 to 50 pips

or

2. Just set a normal SL of maybe 40 to 50 pips and hope for a runner.

I know my personality largely comes into play in managing a trade but let me know...
Hey DW

I simply don't believe in trailing stops based on a pip amount. The market doesn't know or care about it. So I prefer if you are going to trail trail out using the same knowledge that we get in. A great example is just a few posts above by the man himself. When I personally see a very sharp run up like on the gbp/usd or on the chf/jpy I just start to trail under each bar low. The reason is not b/c it won't run more, but why give so much back in this case when a retrace a very large move becomes inevitable for the most part. So putting your stop under each low, both gives room to run and also allows locking in of a lot of profit. Now like you prefaced your question with by all means this is not the only way and just another tool. I know people who use a fixed pip TS with positive results. So if it works, it works, I don't judge


Hope that helps!
Mike
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  #45935  
Old Oct 13, 2009 12:45pm
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Originally Posted by verno View Post
I was reviewing one of Mikes breakout videos at the weekend and thought this trade fitted the bill. The breakout level isn't perfectly defined but I figure its a valid PPZ.

One chart is daily highlighting level, the other is showing retrace to level and PA at level to indicate buying / support.

Any views?
Pretty close verno

Here is how I would have drawn it
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  #46141  
Old Oct 15, 2009 6:23pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Nothing wrong at all with doing that too, GG.
Yes exactly

The best way I can explain it is. To be able to recognize these areas. Over time you learn when to hold a bit, tighten up, or take profit all together. The reality is we never fully know what WILL happen, but by never being surprised and prepared by recognizing all these areas, nothing is every a surprise and that is the best part! Time and experience is what comes next. Sometimes you get the runner, sometimes you don't, sometimes you move your stop up and you get taken out, other times you don't. Isn't the one trade that matters, it is all your trades and the long run.

You all should be very very happy when you can see these things and recognize these areas. You aren't far off.

Mike
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  #46147  
Old Oct 15, 2009 7:04pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
remember many years ago the old "mikey knows" TV thing?

well mikey knows.
Mikey likes it.
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  #46151  
Old Oct 15, 2009 7:18pm
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
i remember mike saying watch out for small bars that don't stand out compared to the overall trend

i think ucad is still trending down and this buob is quite insignificant compared to the overall trend. it doesn't spell confidence with the size of it i think. could be a slight pause in the down trend perhaps?
I would have liked a bigger bar here, but this one is still pretty decent. I would rate it B+ . I made a post about the trouble areas in the PF here is the chart


Mike
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  #45948  
Old Oct 13, 2009 4:18pm
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Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
yea, i'm watching USD/CAD as well...

however, on the daily, the pin doesnt look nice and long
can this be considered an A+ trade?

Small bar, at a swing low, but lots of divergence. Is it A+, based on bar size I would say definitely not (think falling knife). Is it playable? Depends on your methods. I would rather wait it out and watch the smaller timeframes. A jarroo style would look for a hard break any signs of failure cut out for b/e or a small loss.

Just my 2 cents
Mike
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  #45950  
Old Oct 13, 2009 4:24pm
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Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
when u say watch the smaller timeframes, what should i be looking for?
as for the daily timeframe, i think it'll be safer to wait for 1 or 2 more bars to show? but if i do that, what should i be paying attention to?
Hey Arthur

My first answer has to be(and this is not just to you of course, we have to say this every few pages or we wouldn't be looking out for everyones best interest), have you followed the j16 minimum requirements on page 1, that is you are able to trade daily/weekly? Before that I am highly against people jumping down.

My other answer would be, I am going to watch the 1.0500 area for more clear signals, bigger bars. Or any potential breakout patterns forming for a more of a base.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #45955  
Old Oct 13, 2009 5:30pm
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Originally Posted by arthurwtm View Post
by bigger bars, do u mean long rising bars, that may or may not have to be BUOB?

and what do u mean by 'potential breakout patterns'?

thanks for your patience
Hey Arthuer

Basically my way of putting all this together keeps me out of times like that on the daily. What I mean(as you can see the usd/cad end of day turned to crap bar anyway). But had it closed as is on the charts before, the daily just have sharp bearish move after sharp bearish move. Day closed as a pin. But we have to remember a bar by itself does not mean reversal. In this case I see a pinbar at the end of a huge run(a small one) as nothing more then a pause. Almost a neutral bar in my mind(even though it is a pin). This pause can mean a plethora of things but not enough to say hey time to buy for me. So what I do is look for clues in different ways. One would be to look higher to the first real trouble area towards 1.05 for clues(both bullish or bearish) at the ppz.

Here is what I really think happens to most people, and believe me guilty as charged at some point as well so no one take it personal. We start scanning our charts for reasons to enter. We start to see any type bar forming and we just get so excited about possibly being "in" the market. So we see a small pin at a swing low, some divergence and say, "it is good enough". Well I decided to say forget good enough I want great, or I want a stricter rule set to keep me out of the good enough. And when is good enough ACTUALLY good enough. So you start to add in some more factors(there are many you can use and as we see many people have different rule sets).

As you gain the experience, you can see things over and over that you just know are situations you may or may not be involved in. In this case(and their are too many to outright list - hence 3k pages ), we have a small pin after a large run down. My thought process at the most basic is, well we are starting to see buyers come in or profit takers, I will wait for something better to show up or at least substantial, no need to catching that falling knife.

Bit of a ramble, but it wouldn't be me if I didn't

Mike
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  #45956  
Old Oct 13, 2009 5:34pm
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Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Your answers are always a sign posts (at least for me). I'm a real beginner and a noob at the same time so I apologise for my ignorance (it's not the result of a sinister personality rather being unelightened)
By the 1.0500 are do you mean formation of the "box" and then breaking it or do you mean breaking of the downtrend
Have no idea as the 150 and 360 MA are not there as well. I think this can be a Fib retracement but couldn't locate it as well.
The only thing apart from this "box thing" is 1.0500 a level to break long term resistance...
Hey J

I have marked 4 possible areas too look for trades(where each arrow is (for example long or short off the 1.5 area, long off the double bottom area, or again long if the 1.5 turns to support after a bounce off the double bottom). Any or none of these scenarios could occur. But I won't be surprised, caught off guard by the market. instead I will react IF I get the PA I need. Others will simply play touches of these areas. Again style is a big factor. I will simply wait for some nice PA.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #45972  
Old Oct 13, 2009 7:56pm
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Originally Posted by NosferatuMan View Post
$ indeed

Thanks for the answer. Anyway, I'm still on daily charts but I wasn't clear about what I wanted to say. I was talking about bar closing time and not period.

Thanks again for your kind answers.
James uses the IBFX close while posting here, which is an 8pm est closing time. I use a 5pm est FXpro. Others use something in between. I think whatever is comfortable with you. I just prefer closer to NY close.

Best
Mike
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  #46156  
Old Oct 15, 2009 10:06pm
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Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Reading old posts, came across this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25825

Basically asking what pairs you trade. Now that's not my question; but it got me thinking. What's the largest average spread you'll accept? I had limited mine at 5, but I can add a few more pairs if 8 were ok. More pairs... equals more potential opportunities and less likelyhood of taking the 'ok' trades.

I think I just answered my own question...
Spread is one of those misunderstood concepts. Spread is largely based on the liquidity/volatility of a pair. So capping yourself at a 5 pt spread caps out your ability to get into a lot more active moving pairs. Example if gbp/jpy is 6 pt spread vs a pair like usd/cad that is 3 pts. Well usd/cad might move 150 pts per days while gbp/jpy 300 pts. So isn't it one in the same? Again this was just a random example but the concept should be clear. I often hear I can't trade X pair b/c of the spread. While sometimes this is true, depending on your broker. For the most part with decent brokers it is all relative to those types of factors.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46158  
Old Oct 15, 2009 11:30pm
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Mike, (mbqb11),

If you do not mind sharing, I'm a little curious,are you still long GBPJPY?

I do remember you mentioning the divergence of 140 is "textbook" / perfect.
But there was like 3 days of chop b4 this massive run up.

If you're long would you mind sharing your thought process on your conviction/how you managed the trade?

If it's too long to type, maybe you could bring it up in the next PF vid you do.

I suck at CT trading so just wondering how a good CT trader would be thinking during the times the market just pisses around for...
Hey Cyrus

I got nicked out before the run. Just chopped around too much so I moved my stop up and got nicked out for a -.2% loss. Then it went BOOM!

If you want the actual trade break down send me a PM in the pf and ill link u to the posts

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46186  
Old Oct 16, 2009 1:20pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
But I see your point. no more charts from now on.

good luck,

Ben
Ben Please keep the charts coming bud, they are great

we do a mix of everything here, seen by the many diff j16 traders. Even the man himself just posted touch trades the other day
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  #46194  
Old Oct 16, 2009 4:23pm
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Originally Posted by fxlan View Post
Could someone please comment on these 2 pinbars...so i can see the way people really trading them think.

Thank you
Hey Fxlan

If you zoom your chart out a bit they start to look a lot less intriguing then being zoomed in where they look much more significant. I am weary about small pinbars heavily against a trend like eur/aud created on a friday(a notorious profit taking day instead of a position establishing day). So eur/aud doesn't really look all that great with any real lack of confluence. Nzd/jpy a bit more appealing with the divergence and a bit bigger size. Marked the first trouble areas for you which gives a bit more room with nzd/jpy.

Just my views
Mike
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  #46196  
Old Oct 16, 2009 4:33pm
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Originally Posted by fxlan View Post
Thank you very much Mike.

But even nzd/jpy is not looking good enough for you to trade?
I could see people trading it, but that isn't one I am going to pull the trigger on.

One thing I can say are there are many trades I skip that I know what are going to do. I still wait for trades I feel more comfortable with. If this one had a longer nose, or some more confluence I probably would. Majority of my trades are on the h4/h1, so it allows me to be more picky on the daily/weekly. Just about comfort which leads to consistency. I hope that makes sense.

Mike
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  #46199  
Old Oct 16, 2009 4:50pm
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Originally Posted by fxlan View Post
Yeah it makes sense.

I really dont feel comtrable with pins on a years highs...although like jim says a trend has to end somewhere...but you cant see much confluence with this bars.

thank you again
Now if we take it a step further to understand price more and help gain confidence. Notice the first trouble area lines up with 66.50(again round numbers). So the low of the pin is 98, say you get in at 87/86 that gives you 25-30 pips to play with. For some this is worth wathcing for a hard break, getting stop to b/e and seeing what happens at 66.50. Sometimes I do that, I move stops at a first trouble area that is close. Again if we had a longer nose on this pair, it would prob call for a situation like that. Again understanding where price is gonna go, where it is likely to stall is the foundation of most peoples trading. Then you build off that what works for you in terms of exits and trade mgmt as a whole.

Best
Mike
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  #46219  
Old Oct 17, 2009 2:11pm
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
hi guys, heres something i will watching next week
not the best locations and i would have liked to see more confluence ....
jon
p.s. ignore the trades they are on demo only
you are doing great man
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  #46220  
Old Oct 17, 2009 2:13pm
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Originally Posted by kiwipom View Post
Hi all,

This is my first post and so would like to congratulate you all on such a fantastic thread.

Well being relatively new to forex and this trading method (which i have yet to read the thread on) would like to ask your opinion on the attached eur us trade i took in which i am trying to take advantage of the afore mentioned 149 to 153 range.

I entered based upon the pin highlighted and going with the trend.
Your advice and comments are appreciated.
I realise that this may not be as per this method but i am here to learn.
Thanks
Hey Kiwi

Just wanted to say welcome, you already got the answers I would give so I will just add some links on pinbars to help supplement those answers

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=22084

Post again if you need help and welcome

Mike
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  #46221  
Old Oct 17, 2009 2:14pm
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Originally Posted by maxpips View Post
any views about next week?
all signs pointing higher
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  #46222  
Old Oct 17, 2009 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
I just spotted this one too... Right at a PPZ with almost 200 pips of space to move up... only thing I'm weary about is the strong downward trend. Comments?

By the way, to Mike, I haven't posted lately but I continue to trade! I am proud to say that I have reached a point of equilibrium, lol! I loss trades and then recover them! I know if I start being more patient/picky with my trades i'll start profiting more.
Way to go Frank, this is a big step up from a consistently losing trader. The b/e stage can be just as long and frustrating but it is a good place to move up to. So keep going!

Best
Mike
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  #46224  
Old Oct 17, 2009 2:40pm
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Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya Mike..

could you give us a run down with a chart why you say all signs pointing higher please..

thanks,
Adrian
Hey Adrian

It really isn't anything on the chart. weekly is another BUB(bullish bar), 1.5 is REAL close above, which I am sure has heavy orderflow one way or the other, and the market gets attracted to areas of interest. So my "guess" is we see higher at least at some point in the shorter term. Like most I am interested in seeing what happens a bit higher from where we are now. The only semi trade would be a break of the TBH(two bar high) as a continuation on the daily to 1.5

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46241  
Old Oct 18, 2009 4:49am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Let's see if I can explain this comment on Mike's post, but on the current Gbp/Jpy Daily chart. ( Mike, let me know if I'm off track here).

On the Daily Gbp/Jpy we have Price at a very good confluenced location. Nice round numbers, 140.00, 141.00,
50% retrarcement level, and most importantly, a strong PPZ level.

We see some PA developing, but nothing Big and Bold to what we would like to have to counter this strong move down. As days pass, a consolidation area develops forming a Base of which we could play a breakout trade....
Jim you are never off man, ever.

Mike
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  #46268  
Old Oct 18, 2009 5:49pm
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Originally Posted by Tingus View Post
Anyone else with me?
on the gbp/usd gap but close
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  #46337  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:10pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
a hint would be the jonas brothers.
Jim you are finally moving in with the Jonas brothers? I thought that was all talk when you told me on the phone.

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  #46338  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:16pm
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Heya Guys,

Got a quick question / Interesting point to share.
(ok, if someone else has done this, sorry. 3000+ pages on the thread. I confess I aint read through everything yet. )

There was a PB in Geppy 1 hour.
On the 1hour itself its definitely too damn tiny to take, although it was off 147.00 (kinda, 147.11) and also in an uptrend.

BUT, as I was looking back in 20/20 and checked out the Daily, there was...
Makes sense cyrus, but for the way I trade, which is with price bars. I hate tiny bars. I just prefer to see a decent sized reaction off whatever are I am looking for. This really gives me the confidence factor in my trades. That bar doesn't even really qualify as a pin in my book also because the nose barely protrudes away from the prior low. If price didn't go higher, would you ever look back at that bar and good, yeah that was a good one? Again I am not saying that in a mocking way of course, if you would, then fair enough. If you wouldn't that might teach you a lot. So either way

An exercise, go back and scroll through your charts and only look at bars that are bigger then the previous bars(the range of bars on your screen). These will be the bars that JUMP out at you. You should easily be seeing patterns that you can build from there, without even the meat of what we do with S/R.

Best
Mike
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  #46339  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:18pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
I see one other poster took a loss on the Daily AJ Pin Bar....
Hey tJ

I don't ignore fridays, but I ignore small bars. Sort of a followup to the previous post. This bar is what I believe kills people more then helps them. It is a pinbar, but it doesn't really have any staying power to me based on its size. If you take this exact scenario and add not a good bar, a GREAT bar, you now have a winning trade. This is how I see it, and why I really try to emphasize bar size in my posts.

Just my 2 cents
Mike
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  #46340  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:20pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Anyone who plays breakouts or anything similar to what I posted above I'd like to hear any comments (good or bad lol). Also, if anyone has any questions about that setup let me know.

Scott
Nice Scott,

Breakout trading is IMO a really nice and pretty easy to learn. Like price bars, if we wait for clear obvious patterns that everyone draws, and then add in the S/R, PPZ, PA bars Jim teaches it is another yet great tool to have

Mike
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  #46343  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:32pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Heya Mike,

When I saw the bar, I immediately passed on it as well, (I saw it b4 the run up) cause it was too tiny wrt... well, just about everything.

Decent sized bars = confidence --> I've read it a few dozen times all over FF already. It's hit home.

Thank you for your reply though. I do appreciate you taking the time. Was just curious if this might be some sort of coincidence that a poodle type semi-pin worked out.
many many times small bars work out for the same reasons. At S/R ppz, round numbers etc. But to me the difference just comes down to trading and consistent trading.

Whatever and whichever way people choose to trade(there are many as seen in here alone), it all comes down to being consistent and discipline to trade it. Without those 2, we are dead in the water

Best
Mike
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  #46345  
Old Oct 19, 2009 12:36pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
if i got 'it' correctly, the place has very nice amenities.
but the price tag range, for me, well.... ..even for a recession...
the price range is pretty wide, PA-wise.
I was just busting Jims you know what

gotta get mine in while I can
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  #46355  
Old Oct 19, 2009 3:43pm
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Hi Mike,

Sorry to beat a dead horse with this one, but you mentioned a "real lack of confluence" with the eur/aud....
Hey Anthony

When you have a pair in a huge downtrend, it takes a lot to reverse it. So size is VERY VERY much significant enough to not warrant a trade. Bar size in a a more consolidating market will work more then a small pin against a huge trend. In this case the only real confluence is some divergence. Bar size is very small, round number is not all that significant, and we have no support/resistance near term PPZ to base a trading decision on. This is essentially what I call trying to pick the bottom. Many times strong trending markets like this will have some profit taking, namely fridays. This leads to these small pins, that "look good", but have no real validity to them. When I see a small pin trying to reverse a huge trend like that, I think to myself. Is this little bar really it? A big bar at the end of a large running trend is like candy, but these small bars will simply destroy your account if not played right(ie fast break, move to b/e super quick).

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46356  
Old Oct 19, 2009 3:45pm
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Originally Posted by FX_Serg View Post
Hi everyone!
I've been a lurker for some time now, went through the ordinary "loser cycle" which includes trying all the indicators (and not seeing anything except them on the screen), blowing account 3 times (wasn't that funny for me but I guess that's what you get while searching for the real strategy), trying out signal services hoping for a holy grail, AND finally I came here. I think the final part of the journey is only the beginning for me and is the most pleasant of all my experiences.
I wanted to thank James and all the senior members...
Welcome Serg, Trading really IS simple. Only we complicate things. Now simple doesn't mean easy, b/c we have to battle through mostly what are our inner demons. Just constantly remind yourself, how easy-going and simplistic Jim is as both a person and trader. Most of us repeat. What would James16 do here? You can't go wrong doing that

Welcome again
Mike
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  #46357  
Old Oct 19, 2009 3:47pm
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Good Day,

I am a new poster to this thread but have been reading for some time now. Currently, I am on my 2nd read and will probably re-read this thread many more times. It is amazing how much new information you pick-up re-reading the thread....
Hey Mikali

This kind of is the same as the eur/aud I posted 2 posts above. Again to me personally(and again everyone can disagree I can only share my experiences), this is again a small pin in relation to this strong moves were having. You have it so closed to nailed here. If you just take this exact scenario and wait for a bar that smacks you in the face, instead of just a bar that meets the technical criteria to be a pinbar, there is nothing that can prevent you from making money consistently.

Best
Mike

(ps hope others follow your lead in reading this thread multiple times )
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  #46358  
Old Oct 19, 2009 3:48pm
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consider it busted.

what the heck was i thinking?

it was late.
ya that was late, you stayed up longer then me
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  #46360  
Old Oct 19, 2009 4:12pm
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Hi Mike,

Thank you for the feedback!!

After reading your response to...
Hey Mikali

Basically, and this isn't a hard fact it can happen many ways. Friday is notorious profit taking. By that I mean many people simply close their positions out for the weekend. They don't want to have risk out on the table so they close out and might look to re-enter on sunday/monday re-opening. So if people are long in a market. That means to close their position you must sell it. So these sells come in and can create a PB that you see. Now that doesn't mean I won't trade based off a fridays bar. But a small bar could be chalked up to this profit taking rather then a true selling in the market that would warrant me to want a trade.

Let me know if that makes sense

Mike
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  #46365  
Old Oct 19, 2009 4:40pm
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Mike, if posible, I would like to have yout thoughts on this one.

A PB is forming on daily with a intersting nose size. Also on weekly we have a good BEOB.
I have also a 50.0 fib and RN 0.9100.

My question is: is this a good setup for a short? (in case we trigger both the BEOB and PB (around 0.9880).
I rectangle is a conflit area and the 0.9880 was also resistance and support in the past.

Please let me have your comments.
Hey Nos

That pinbar is at a major swinglow, so we want to see them at a swing high(bearish pins). Now it could be the tip off to the BEOB like you said. My opinion would be that to simply play the weekly beob, then a sloppy pin like that. If the BEOB breaks we could see 9000 more then likely and that is our first trouble area

Best
Mike
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  #46366  
Old Oct 19, 2009 4:42pm
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Hi Mike,

So, if I understand you correctly you are suggesting that a small sized (in relation to the adjacent bars) PB on a Friday could indicate profit taking. That being the case, other then the size of the bar could there be any other forewarning clue that might determine if the PB is a valid set-up as apposed to profit taking i.e. volume for instance.

Cheers,

Mikali
Hey M

There is no true volume in FX market since it is not centralized so I would not go by any volume(futures to small in comparison to spot) and/or tick volume personally.

Size is what I use personally, others might play it and if there isn't a hard break like jaroo ditch out for a small loss(nothing wrong with this).

Best
Mike
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  #46371  
Old Oct 19, 2009 4:57pm
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mike,
did you take the AJ trade?

also curious to hear Jim's take on the AJ setup that failed. i mean he just took 2 trades that did not have as much room to run as AJ and they didn't look like A trades.. or at least didn't look as tempting as the AJ trade..

is it because his trades were with the trend that made it all that more likely to succeed even though the AJ setup looked nice?

Hey D

My last few posts all about the same topic on bar size. And also this post as well
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=46197

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46390  
Old Oct 19, 2009 8:44pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I took a 1R loss on the AJ as well and I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts based on the discussion so far.

I think it feels terrible to take a loss when you think you're the only one who did it. And of course, as people have mentioned, forums naturally create a phenomenon whereby you see more people post winners than losers and so you can get the view that everyone else is making money and you're the bozo striking out.

The lesson, if that's the way you're thinking, is not to focus on what anyone else is doing but to focus on yourself. It...
very nice post Aaron. I think many from PF will find a lot to pull from Fijis recent talk on blame shifting.

If a trade fits your plan that you have proven it works, then you take the loss and move on. No one IMO should be risking more then 1% of their account on any trade until they have solid statistics to back it up. This will keep you in the game(on demo of course). If looking back on a trade you wouldn't take it 100 times over as per aarons example, then find out why and learn from that mistake. Shifting that blame elsewhere will cause it to happen over and over.

Nice post A

Mike
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  #46413  
Old Oct 20, 2009 3:54am
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Originally Posted by zimdonks View Post
watching GU.....

i bought on break of 1H buob using 5min TF. picked up 30pips but assumed it would go higher and have since been stopped out (my analysis is on charts).


can anyone see where i could have gone wrong??.... G_J_hook@yah, what can you see? im a bit annoyed
edit: always helps if you draw in the PPZ's (1.6425 area)- im a twit!
Hey Zim

Remember we want to play BUOBs at swing lows with good confluence, big bars. This is a 1hr timeframe, small buob at a swing high.

Just a friendly reminder to remember to follow james16 minimum requirements as per post 1. They are there to help I promise

Mike
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  #46449  
Old Oct 20, 2009 12:44pm
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Hi nasir,

Thanks for the chart!!
I failed to look at the weekly chart prior to placing the trade and have my TP set at 1.5100. The safer bet could in fact be 1.5000. The trade triggered at 1.4966 so I will take 1/2 off the trade at 1.5000 and move my stop to BE on the remaining position.

Thanks for your input,

Mikali
Hey Mikali

THis is a perfect example of why playing continuation bars are very tough. I always send out this recommendation. Do not play them as continuations till you can play them as the reversals ala the james16 way taught in this thread. This one worked out exactly as I would have thought. Most would prob be in drawdown now. Why? Because they would have expect 1.5 to get hit to the pip. Instead of realizing any sort of break needs to get right to breakeven. 1.5 is a huge psychological barrier, not to mention probably an option barrier. This means sell orders will come in right prior to it to protect it also. It will get hit most likely. I really say stick to the bars at the locations taught in this thread. Once you get a hang of that there will be enough experience to play them in other places.

Best
Mike
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  #46450  
Old Oct 20, 2009 12:46pm
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Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
I'm am also on daily CHFJPY pb and on daily USDCAD buob, and they are not looking good, but I don't mind, because I think I haven't done a mistake here.

I have a same kind of attitude to trading that I have when I play poker. Those who play poker more or less seriously know that it really doesn't matter, whether you lose or win a hand. What matters is to make wise decisions. Short term results don't play any role, because you know that if you just make right decisions, money WILL come into your pocket in the long run.

One trade to me is like...
love this post because I can relate
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  #46451  
Old Oct 20, 2009 12:52pm
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Hi Mike, if you don't mind, I've got some questions about swing high/swing low point. How do you know when a bar is at swing high/low in realtime? How do you describe swing high/low?

I've got this definition from investopedia:
Swing High: "A term used in technical analysis that refers to the peak reached by an indicator or an asset's price. A swing high is formed when the high of a price is greater than a given number of highs positioned around it." So how many preceding bars should be counted before you consider swing high/low...
Hey E

Swing points CAN and DO change. But the idea is to identify if it is a good swing point in real time. Point A is the only place I would call a swing point(notice the pin never triggered). But this would be a true swing point. Those other points are in very very heavy traffic, making them extreme minor swing points. This is where you can see all the phrases here come together. Look for a bar at a good swing point(aka no traffic). If there is traffic the swing points will be more minor by definition of traffic.

I also see people constantly drawing fibs from very minor swing points. Is that ok? Sure if it works for you. But most likely that won't b/c you(not you you, everyone) are not identifying areas that other traders are.

Here is another post. Just don't forget we have major and minor swing points. A good swing point is easily identifiable, vs the minors that are less pronounced. You also have decent minor swing points too(these will be more pronounced as you scale down in timeframe).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45105

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46456  
Old Oct 20, 2009 1:54pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
.. and they were indeed huge...
Listen to Mike, he knows...
no doubt in my mind YOU were the one who actually profited here though( I slept )
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  #46463  
Old Oct 20, 2009 3:00pm
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Originally Posted by FX_Serg View Post
Hey Mike,

Does it make sense in such trades to close the position at *.9 prior to round number and then wait until the actual break of that super round number?
Thanks!
Depends on the situation. If you are long from way long ago, I would have no problem trailing up higher. But if I was long short term, i would be closing or to b/e before that 1.5 area. So it depends

Best
Mike
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  #46464  
Old Oct 20, 2009 3:05pm
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Finally, if you could elaborate a little further on your comment "1.5 is a huge psychological barrier, not to mention probably an option barrier. This means sell orders will come in right prior to it to protect it also. It will get hit most likely.

Thanking you in advance for your assistance and insight,
Mikali
Hey Mikali

What I will do is crop out part of my last webinar where I talk a bit about continuation bars. I will do that sometime this week or next for you guys.

As for 1.5. 1.5 might as well be 1(parity) on euro. It is a very big basis for where everything is. Just walk out on the streets and listen to the uneducated people talk. They all will talk about oh the euro is at 1.5, did the euro hit 1.5? Not like it means anything much to them.

So this also means traders are focused on it. A focused area = ordeflow = action. Traders LOVE action. It means lets check out what happens around here and try to profit when someone flubs up. Likewise it is going to be an option area. It isn't a matter if it is, it definitely is. It simply matters what price action is around that area. Not to get too crazy about it all. But if there is option protection that means people are going to sell like crazy to protect their option from being hit. So they will sell to the max price that makes it worthwhile. So this is why often times price comes close a few pips - 10 pips of a round number, and reverses. In the case of the euro there was an option expiring there today, more likely next week. For now it was protected. This is why we pay attention to round numbers and add them into our analysis for both the psych side, and the OF side of things.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #46483  
Old Oct 20, 2009 5:49pm
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Originally Posted by ratherbesailing View Post
Mike, Bundy, Race,BB and of course Jim,

how is it boys.....been a while......just read back a few pages see what was going on. Lots of new avatars putting in their 2 cents.........some funky chart colours...theres a yellow one thats a screamer, that guy will go blind.....!
A bit of waffle still about MACD's and stochs.....nice analagy to poker..that was good.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Race...that Euro trade......you have...
hey RBS I guess you have been sailing



Quote:
Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi all.

It is been a while from my last post and check on the forum. Happy to see you again . I ve made some pips from e/u today. You did too. Nice. A no sense post from me but just wanted to say hi

Heya Atton
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  #46510  
Old Oct 21, 2009 3:20am
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Originally Posted by pipsdaily View Post
DBLHC AT MAJOR SUPPORT 1.5400 chart attached. Oh how I wish I could get a comment from one of the seniors. I'm in on this one. James?
Hey Pip

I wouldn't really count this as a DBLHC, as the lows aren't really close enough to me. Just a BUB which might show more strength to come. But this pair is crazy choppy and messy lately heading back to early this year. Makes the mgmt part less then ideal. Not very optimal setup IMO

Best
Mike
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