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  #48887  
Old Nov 29, 2009 10:25pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
yeh i was wondering also in regards to pairs being pretty much the same.
for example any yen pair had pins on friday and also have similar price pattens to do jpy being somewhere in the ticker.
Yup, that's pretty much it.

Those pairs will always move together because they all have yen as the quote currency. Most will move in tandem with USDJPY, because that's always going to be the primary yen pair, and most of the others are constructions based on it.

One thing to keep in mind is that correlations change over time - sometimes drastically. USDJPY used to be positively correlated with the Dow (Dow up, money floods into the US, USDJPY up), now it has a strong negative correlation (Dow up, money floods *out* of the US looking for yields, USDJPY down). Trying to base your trades off that will get your ass kicked if you arent careful... best to stick with the charts for the most part

Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
I kinda just figured well I may as well just watch the majors such as u.j g.j and forget about the rest because it just feels like im double handling everything
Kinda. While they will all move in the same general direction, each individual pair will have different characteristics which depend on the base currency, even though they are all interrelated. So while the charts will broadly move in the same fashion, you will see different PA on each one - and so one chart might give you a much better entry into a trend than the others.

(It is particularly applicable in Yen crosses because they are so heavily tied to risk aversion flows. Same as the Swissie. The relationships there are alot stronger than with USD or EUR pairs.)

In the end, I think it is worth watching the liquid pairs - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY. They have enough volume of their own that you can trade them pretty safely. I wouldnt bother with the others, since you are largely going to be trading indirects (ie, trading NZDJPY is more like trading AUDJPY and AUDNZD at the same time).
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  #48895  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:42am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Ok, I get it but i don't.... lol

It seems to me it makes sense to not watch EVERY fx pair, but rather to have some dif markets to watch as well? (futures or something)
lol, that must be my exemplary communication skills at play, again

Watch all strong FX pairs, even if they are are strongly correlated, because you will get different signals on each one.

The only time you need to be concerned is where you are actually trading correlated pairs. You increase your risk by having greater exposure to a single currency, which can lead to trouble if there is some kind of event that goes against you.

Is it a fatal problem? As long as you are following proper risk management strategies, I would say no. But, it is easy enough to avoid - when all the xxxJPY charts are showing setups, just trade the strongest one. Easy game.

Its more just something to be aware of - if you load up yen on every JPY cross you can find, and then the BoJ comes out with some bad news, you are gonna have a bad day.

(and this is strictly IMO, many people dont agree, including Mike, who you should all listen to).


As for futures - I say definitely. More markets -> more charts -> more signals (and, as a side benefit, less exposure to a single asset class)

I probably trade more futures than forex these days. More transparent markets, way more information available to you (including the all-important volume) and *most* move in far more defined, predictible patterns than forex.

For starters, I'd probably pick one from each basket to papertrade - an energy (CL), a metal (GC), a financial (ZF or ZN), a soft (I love KT, but ZW is also a good starter) and an index (YM). See which one(s) fit you, and expand from there.

Personally, I love trading rate futures - mainly because of my day job, but also because they move smoothly and predictibly. Other people like oil, for the potential to knock it right out of the park (American sports metaphor alert!). Others like gold, because its pretty easy to read and the levels are hugely reactive. And then some people are just complete degen gamblers and so they love losing their shirt on pork bellies and OJ futures

It all depends on what works for you. No matter what, there is definitely a market out there that fits.

(I also watch stocks, but that's a whole 'nother post)

*edit*
from your chart, if you really wanted to cut down on the number of squiggles to look at...

I'd skip all the NZD pairs (except maybe AUDNZD, though its pretty choppy), the peso (lol), and probably all the CAD crosses (keeping USDCAD, obv - the rest are all byproducts of USDCAD and the USD cross with that currency). The spread is retarded on most of these anyways, so screw em.

That leaves you with seventeen or eighteen charts. At 2 minutes a chart, that isnt really a huge amount of work to keep up with

If you wanted to go a step further, you could lose all the aussie pairs except AUDUSD and AUDJPY, which whittles it down to thirteen or so. You could throw out CHFJPY too, if you liked, since they both have mostly the same drivers and its pretty dull.

If you really wanted to go spartan - I could whittle my dream team down to ten charts:

AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.

then add GC, CL, YM, ZF.
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Last edited by joelcf, Nov 30, 2009 1:18am
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  #48896  
Old Nov 30, 2009 1:23am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fascist View Post
The question is: do I have to wait until the second bar that forms the double top/bottom closes before entering on retracement or can I straight away enter into a trade if it is obvious that it would form one of the above PA?
Normally, you want to trade a 2-bar pattern when a third bar completes the setup. You get your two matching lows with a higher close, then enter when the next bar breaks it.

You are asking whether it is okay to trade using just one bar and what you think 'might' happen, rather than 3 confirmed moves.

...
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  #48887  
Old Nov 29, 2009 10:25pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
yeh i was wondering also in regards to pairs being pretty much the same.
for example any yen pair had pins on friday and also have similar price pattens to do jpy being somewhere in the ticker.
Yup, that's pretty much it.

Those pairs will always move together because they all have yen as the quote currency. Most will move in tandem with USDJPY, because that's always going to be the primary yen pair, and most of the others are constructions based on it.

One thing to keep in mind is that correlations change over time - sometimes drastically. USDJPY used to be positively correlated with the Dow (Dow up, money floods into the US, USDJPY up), now it has a strong negative correlation (Dow up, money floods *out* of the US looking for yields, USDJPY down). Trying to base your trades off that will get your ass kicked if you arent careful... best to stick with the charts for the most part

Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
I kinda just figured well I may as well just watch the majors such as u.j g.j and forget about the rest because it just feels like im double handling everything
Kinda. While they will all move in the same general direction, each individual pair will have different characteristics which depend on the base currency, even though they are all interrelated. So while the charts will broadly move in the same fashion, you will see different PA on each one - and so one chart might give you a much better entry into a trend than the others.

(It is particularly applicable in Yen crosses because they are so heavily tied to risk aversion flows. Same as the Swissie. The relationships there are alot stronger than with USD or EUR pairs.)

In the end, I think it is worth watching the liquid pairs - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY. They have enough volume of their own that you can trade them pretty safely. I wouldnt bother with the others, since you are largely going to be trading indirects (ie, trading NZDJPY is more like trading AUDJPY and AUDNZD at the same time).
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  #48895  
Old Nov 30, 2009 12:42am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Ok, I get it but i don't.... lol

It seems to me it makes sense to not watch EVERY fx pair, but rather to have some dif markets to watch as well? (futures or something)
lol, that must be my exemplary communication skills at play, again

Watch all strong FX pairs, even if they are are strongly correlated, because you will get different signals on each one.

The only time you need to be concerned is where you are actually trading correlated pairs. You increase your risk by having greater exposure to a single currency, which can lead to trouble if there is some kind of event that goes against you.

Is it a fatal problem? As long as you are following proper risk management strategies, I would say no. But, it is easy enough to avoid - when all the xxxJPY charts are showing setups, just trade the strongest one. Easy game.

Its more just something to be aware of - if you load up yen on every JPY cross you can find, and then the BoJ comes out with some bad news, you are gonna have a bad day.

(and this is strictly IMO, many people dont agree, including Mike, who you should all listen to).


As for futures - I say definitely. More markets -> more charts -> more signals (and, as a side benefit, less exposure to a single asset class)

I probably trade more futures than forex these days. More transparent markets, way more information available to you (including the all-important volume) and *most* move in far more defined, predictible patterns than forex.

For starters, I'd probably pick one from each basket to papertrade - an energy (CL), a metal (GC), a financial (ZF or ZN), a soft (I love KT, but ZW is also a good starter) and an index (YM). See which one(s) fit you, and expand from there.

Personally, I love trading rate futures - mainly because of my day job, but also because they move smoothly and predictibly. Other people like oil, for the potential to knock it right out of the park (American sports metaphor alert!). Others like gold, because its pretty easy to read and the levels are hugely reactive. And then some people are just complete degen gamblers and so they love losing their shirt on pork bellies and OJ futures

It all depends on what works for you. No matter what, there is definitely a market out there that fits.

(I also watch stocks, but that's a whole 'nother post)

*edit*
from your chart, if you really wanted to cut down on the number of squiggles to look at...

I'd skip all the NZD pairs (except maybe AUDNZD, though its pretty choppy), the peso (lol), and probably all the CAD crosses (keeping USDCAD, obv - the rest are all byproducts of USDCAD and the USD cross with that currency). The spread is retarded on most of these anyways, so screw em.

That leaves you with seventeen or eighteen charts. At 2 minutes a chart, that isnt really a huge amount of work to keep up with

If you wanted to go a step further, you could lose all the aussie pairs except AUDUSD and AUDJPY, which whittles it down to thirteen or so. You could throw out CHFJPY too, if you liked, since they both have mostly the same drivers and its pretty dull.

If you really wanted to go spartan - I could whittle my dream team down to ten charts:

AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.

then add GC, CL, YM, ZF.
__________________
It's all about the Hamiltons, baby.

Last edited by joelcf, Nov 30, 2009 1:18am
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  #48896  
Old Nov 30, 2009 1:23am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fascist View Post
The question is: do I have to wait until the second bar that forms the double top/bottom closes before entering on retracement or can I straight away enter into a trade if it is obvious that it would form one of the above PA?
Normally, you want to trade a 2-bar pattern when a third bar completes the setup. You get your two matching lows with a higher close, then enter when the next bar breaks it.

You are asking whether it is okay to trade using just one bar and what you think 'might' happen, rather than 3 confirmed moves.

...
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  #48953  
Old Nov 30, 2009 4:01pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Do you use a dedicated futures broker Joel, or a one stop shop like IB? And do you find there is anything extra nuances you need to know in terms of margin requirements, position sizing, gaps etc when it comes to futures?
IB, mainly because there arent that many local brokerages that handle al the markets I want, and trading with a US brokerage is a pain in the ass - between having to wire funds in and out of the country and all the regulatory requirements that go with trading to begin with (especially for me, ugh), it isnt worth the trouble to look elsewhere.

Not that I am unhappy with them - commissions are decent, speed and execution is topnotch. Customer service is pretty rubbish, though.

For you?
Each instrument has its own nuances. Even down to basics like timeframe - you can could trade oil, gold or eminis anywhere between a weekly chart and a tick chart if you wanted, but things like the softs need to be looked at on a weekly chart. I daresay Jim will be able to point you in the right direction for pretty much anything you want to trade.


For everyone else?
Demo first. Each contract is different. They dont trade the same. Demo.

There are three main things that give people a headache when they start in futures - contracts, margins and ticks.

For contracts, you just need to know which one to look at. It isnt like stocks or forex where you have a continuous chart to trade from - you can *construct* continuous charts - or let your software do it for you - but there are definitely some nuances involved that a good futures book will cover alot more thoroughly than I As long as you just remember to trade the most liquid contract, and make sure you are trading off the chart for said contract, it should be okay.

For margins, you need an initial margin and then a maintenance margin. Varies by instrument - the exchange (usually cme.com) will tell you how much.

Using gold as an example, the initial margin is about $5400, and then maintenance is $4000 (last I checked - I dont think its changed, but oil margins jump around all the time). Of course, you will set your stops as per normal, so you dont actually risk that much, but if you dont have it to begin with, you wont get to play.

Granularity can be a huge problem if you want to trade futures on a small account. There are mini instruments available on nymex for some of the popular contracts (off the top of my head, I think you can get mini gold, silver, copper, dow, oil, gas, soy and wheat), but even then the margin requirements can be too large to exercise proper money management with a small account.

At which point, your only real options are either to look for a CFD dealer who deals in minilots/microlots for the instruments you want (not applicable for USAians... and opens a world of other questions), or look for another instrument that tracks commodity prices... something like an ETF/ETN, option over a futures contract or a stock price that follows what you want (a gold producer, and oil services company, etc). All of those raise their own issues though - contango with your ETF, theta decay with options, hedging programs with your stocks. All those can result in you making a loss while the 'price' of the commodity is going up. Do your research, understand what you are trading.

(then you have to take into account that if you are trading actual futures - as opposed to a CFD your broker constructs - you will have to pay for data, and you will pay transaction costs.. both of which are a bit of an anathema for people coming from the forex world)

Oh, and ticks. A 1 tick move is different in every market, and represents a different amount of money. Gold moves in 10c/oz increments, but each contract is for 100 ounces. Oil in 1c/bbl, contract is for 1000 barrels so each tick is worth $10. Nymex cotton in 100ths of a cent/lb in 50,000lb lots. So from there you have to work out the value of 1 tick, then the number of ticks between your order and your stop to get your risk.

A good futures book goes a long, long way to making things easier. Getting Started in Futures by Jack Schwager, then Schwager on futures when you want to go further are a good choice.
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It's all about the Hamiltons, baby.

Last edited by joelcf, Nov 30, 2009 4:18pm
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  #48954  
Old Nov 30, 2009 4:03pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Do you know of a good broker for futures that uses MT4 and lets you trades something similar to a micro lot (I don't know how futures work in that regard)
Really not sure sorry, someone else should be able to answer this though - I see a bunch of MT4 futures charts posted in the PF, so hopefully one of those guys will chime in
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  #48968  
Old Nov 30, 2009 6:12pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Thanks Joel!

Seems way confusing, but so did forex a few months ago. I'll figure it out. Might grab that book (or ask for it for xmas... haha)

EDIT- Is this the book you mean? http://books.google.ca/books?id=JVJX...age&q=&f=false
it is, to begin with - but as you said, so are most things worth doing

'Getting Started in Futures' is 'how did i futures?!' book for beginners.
http://books.google.ca/books?id=LH19...age&q=&f=false

(i think I lied, Jack didnt write it at all - he did the tech/a book in the series)

also here
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Starte...1853004&sr=1-1

after that, 'Schwager of Futures - FUndamental Analysis' and 'Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis' are both really good, encyclopedic tomes. John J Murphy's books are also quite good.

Or, if you are a pf member, my ramblings on futures books are here but I cant figure out how to copy/paste without formatting going crazy http://www.james16group.us/forums/sh...6325#post36325
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  #48973  
Old Nov 30, 2009 7:48pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
I'm having a tough time figuring out when the futures markets are open/closed... Seems Some are dif from others? Dif markets I would assume?
Yeah, it can be a bit mindboggling, coming from a 24h continuous contract market! Basically, it depends on the exchange and the product.

Some, like eminis and note futures, trade around the clock. Most of the big CME products are traded 23-hours, but volumes are light outside NY time.

Most follow standard chicago/NY/London hours, depending on the exchange you are trading on (CME/NYBOT/LIFFE)

Others have weird rules. Like CME corn - 9.30am-1.15pm, then 6pm-7.30am the next day. wtf. I guess the farmers have a nap from 2-5pm.

It really comes down to researching the exact contract you want to trade, and then printing out a timetable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Here is the list of supported Futures...

WZ, CZ, NKDZ, EPZ, ENQZ, FCEZ, YMZ, FDXZ, FFIZ, FSMIZ, SF, CLF and NGF
I think the other issue you are going to run into is that your broker is giving contract names in a non-standard way, which could lead to confusion.

Take 'YMZ' - that would be an emini contract (YM), closing December (Z), and missing the trailing '9' to indicate 2009. I assume.

Same with CLF - Crude (CL) January (F), missing the trailing '10'

Some of them, though - wow. I have no idea.

Anyways, once you have that down, either http://www.cmegroup.com/ or https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml or http://www.euronext.com/landing/land...o-3127-EN.html , depending on the exchange and then look up contract specifications for each one. That will give you things like trading times, contract size, tick size, etc.

Pain in the ass brokers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Futures really seem to respond to J16 well, no?
Definitely. Watch Jim's video in the guest section on YM futures to see just how well!

Quote:
Originally Posted by xtrader88878 View Post
Here something about myself and my work. I am a full time FX trader myself working in a investment bank and have never been exposed to FX previously. Through connections and good acadamic results, I have managed to get into this role and been put under a 9 month mentorship under a senior trader.
lol. I cant believe I missed out on this.

It's amazing how many PROFESSHIANAL TRADERZ pop up in this forum to tell everyone that everything they are successfully using is bs. And kinda funny, since they instantly make it clear that they are not, in fact, 'working in an investment bank'.

Silly trolls.

Also: claiming good acadamic results.
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Last edited by joelcf, Nov 30, 2009 8:58pm
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  #48985  
Old Dec 1, 2009 5:01am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Sir joelcf & Sir jarroo, u have been on extended holidays huh, heheh
I wish - blame work for that one. Holidays come in January
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  #48953  
Old Nov 30, 2009 4:01pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Do you use a dedicated futures broker Joel, or a one stop shop like IB? And do you find there is anything extra nuances you need to know in terms of margin requirements, position sizing, gaps etc when it comes to futures?
IB, mainly because there arent that many local brokerages that handle al the markets I want, and trading with a US brokerage is a pain in the ass - between having to wire funds in and out of the country and all the regulatory requirements that go with trading to begin with (especially for me, ugh), it isnt worth the trouble to look elsewhere.

Not that I am unhappy with them - commissions are decent, speed and execution is topnotch. Customer service is pretty rubbish, though.

For you?
Each instrument has its own nuances. Even down to basics like timeframe - you can could trade oil, gold or eminis anywhere between a weekly chart and a tick chart if you wanted, but things like the softs need to be looked at on a weekly chart. I daresay Jim will be able to point you in the right direction for pretty much anything you want to trade.


For everyone else?
Demo first. Each contract is different. They dont trade the same. Demo.

There are three main things that give people a headache when they start in futures - contracts, margins and ticks.

For contracts, you just need to know which one to look at. It isnt like stocks or forex where you have a continuous chart to trade from - you can *construct* continuous charts - or let your software do it for you - but there are definitely some nuances involved that a good futures book will cover alot more thoroughly than I As long as you just remember to trade the most liquid contract, and make sure you are trading off the chart for said contract, it should be okay.

For margins, you need an initial margin and then a maintenance margin. Varies by instrument - the exchange (usually cme.com) will tell you how much.

Using gold as an example, the initial margin is about $5400, and then maintenance is $4000 (last I checked - I dont think its changed, but oil margins jump around all the time). Of course, you will set your stops as per normal, so you dont actually risk that much, but if you dont have it to begin with, you wont get to play.

Granularity can be a huge problem if you want to trade futures on a small account. There are mini instruments available on nymex for some of the popular contracts (off the top of my head, I think you can get mini gold, silver, copper, dow, oil, gas, soy and wheat), but even then the margin requirements can be too large to exercise proper money management with a small account.

At which point, your only real options are either to look for a CFD dealer who deals in minilots/microlots for the instruments you want (not applicable for USAians... and opens a world of other questions), or look for another instrument that tracks commodity prices... something like an ETF/ETN, option over a futures contract or a stock price that follows what you want (a gold producer, and oil services company, etc). All of those raise their own issues though - contango with your ETF, theta decay with options, hedging programs with your stocks. All those can result in you making a loss while the 'price' of the commodity is going up. Do your research, understand what you are trading.

(then you have to take into account that if you are trading actual futures - as opposed to a CFD your broker constructs - you will have to pay for data, and you will pay transaction costs.. both of which are a bit of an anathema for people coming from the forex world)

Oh, and ticks. A 1 tick move is different in every market, and represents a different amount of money. Gold moves in 10c/oz increments, but each contract is for 100 ounces. Oil in 1c/bbl, contract is for 1000 barrels so each tick is worth $10. Nymex cotton in 100ths of a cent/lb in 50,000lb lots. So from there you have to work out the value of 1 tick, then the number of ticks between your order and your stop to get your risk.

A good futures book goes a long, long way to making things easier. Getting Started in Futures by Jack Schwager, then Schwager on futures when you want to go further are a good choice.
__________________
It's all about the Hamiltons, baby.

Last edited by joelcf, Nov 30, 2009 4:18pm
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  #48954  
Old Nov 30, 2009 4:03pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Do you know of a good broker for futures that uses MT4 and lets you trades something similar to a micro lot (I don't know how futures work in that regard)
Really not sure sorry, someone else should be able to answer this though - I see a bunch of MT4 futures charts posted in the PF, so hopefully one of those guys will chime in
__________________
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  #48968  
Old Nov 30, 2009 6:12pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Thanks Joel!

Seems way confusing, but so did forex a few months ago. I'll figure it out. Might grab that book (or ask for it for xmas... haha)

EDIT- Is this the book you mean? http://books.google.ca/books?id=JVJX...age&q=&f=false
it is, to begin with - but as you said, so are most things worth doing

'Getting Started in Futures' is 'how did i futures?!' book for beginners.
http://books.google.ca/books?id=LH19...age&q=&f=false

(i think I lied, Jack didnt write it at all - he did the tech/a book in the series)

also here
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Starte...1853004&sr=1-1

after that, 'Schwager of Futures - FUndamental Analysis' and 'Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis' are both really good, encyclopedic tomes. John J Murphy's books are also quite good.

Or, if you are a pf member, my ramblings on futures books are here but I cant figure out how to copy/paste without formatting going crazy http://www.james16group.us/forums/sh...6325#post36325
__________________
It's all about the Hamiltons, baby.
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  #48973  
Old Nov 30, 2009 7:48pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
More than 10 Vouchers  341 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
I'm having a tough time figuring out when the futures markets are open/closed... Seems Some are dif from others? Dif markets I would assume?
Yeah, it can be a bit mindboggling, coming from a 24h continuous contract market! Basically, it depends on the exchange and the product.

Some, like eminis and note futures, trade around the clock. Most of the big CME products are traded 23-hours, but volumes are light outside NY time.

Most follow standard chicago/NY/London hours, depending on the exchange you are trading on (CME/NYBOT/LIFFE)

Others have weird rules. Like CME corn - 9.30am-1.15pm, then 6pm-7.30am the next day. wtf. I guess the farmers have a nap from 2-5pm.

It really comes down to researching the exact contract you want to trade, and then printing out a timetable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Here is the list of supported Futures...

WZ, CZ, NKDZ, EPZ, ENQZ, FCEZ, YMZ, FDXZ, FFIZ, FSMIZ, SF, CLF and NGF
I think the other issue you are going to run into is that your broker is giving contract names in a non-standard way, which could lead to confusion.

Take 'YMZ' - that would be an emini contract (YM), closing December (Z), and missing the trailing '9' to indicate 2009. I assume.

Same with CLF - Crude (CL) January (F), missing the trailing '10'

Some of them, though - wow. I have no idea.

Anyways, once you have that down, either http://www.cmegroup.com/ or https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml or http://www.euronext.com/landing/land...o-3127-EN.html , depending on the exchange and then look up contract specifications for each one. That will give you things like trading times, contract size, tick size, etc.

Pain in the ass brokers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
Futures really seem to respond to J16 well, no?
Definitely. Watch Jim's video in the guest section on YM futures to see just how well!

Quote:
Originally Posted by xtrader88878 View Post
Here something about myself and my work. I am a full time FX trader myself working in a investment bank and have never been exposed to FX previously. Through connections and good acadamic results, I have managed to get into this role and been put under a 9 month mentorship under a senior trader.
lol. I cant believe I missed out on this.

It's amazing how many PROFESSHIANAL TRADERZ pop up in this forum to tell everyone that everything they are successfully using is bs. And kinda funny, since they instantly make it clear that they are not, in fact, 'working in an investment bank'.

Silly trolls.

Also: claiming good acadamic results.
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  #48985  
Old Dec 1, 2009 5:01am
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Sir joelcf & Sir jarroo, u have been on extended holidays huh, heheh
I wish - blame work for that one. Holidays come in January
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  #49099  
Old Dec 2, 2009 9:26pm
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when will you learn TA is just a bunch of hogwash?
price action trading is a branch of technical analysis
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  #49099  
Old Dec 2, 2009 9:26pm
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when will you learn TA is just a bunch of hogwash?
price action trading is a branch of technical analysis
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  #49195  
Old Dec 4, 2009 1:39am
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Originally Posted by Musanto View Post
I wonder why in this thread people still jumping between pairs, tf and not focussing trade on one pair and one smaller tf like m5 like James.
Why still no progress ,after all this year I see no one here trade in m5 ?
Many reasons, but here are a few.

1) You assume that trading a 5m chart is the same as trading a 1hr chart. It isnt. The market dynamics are very different. What works in one market doesnt necessarily work in others. More on this later. Of course, some things still do - but why limit the tools available? Continuing this point, if we can see that the timeframes lead to different dynamics, that means you need to change the way you trade. Which means that 'focussing' on one pair and smaller timeframes doesnt really add as much benefit as you think.

Can you learn to trade a new timeframe, based on the tools and skills you have? Sure. Of course you can. But you have to trade differently for each one. And if you dont, you will lose.

2) You assume that 'jumping between pairs' is a drawback, and that 'drilling down into one pair' is a positive. Following on from (1), you can see that this is actually backwards. Trading different charts on the same timeframe is easy, because you can use the same skills and tools that you have worked on. Trading different timeframes on the same chart, on the other hand, is counter productive. The best way to get more setups is to trade more charts, not smaller ones.

3) You assume that one could 'catch all movements', ie somehow net the day's volatility. You cant, because you only trade certain setups. So by dropping to the m5, you effectively limit yourself to catching small moves, as opposed to big ones, and they dont necessarily appear more often. Why? Because small market moves are part of big market moves. They arent an independent entity. Going from the h1 to m5 might get you 12 times more bars, but it doesnt get you 12 times more setups.

4) As discussed in (1), you assume that smaller timeframes are the same as larger ones. They arent. As your timeframe decreases, the signal:noise ratio gets higher. Why? Because it takes smaller orders to move the market x% of the bar you are looking at. Following that, we can conclude that the bar shapes you see on lower timeframes are less significant than those on a higher timeframe. So, combined with (3), we would be catching smaller moves with lower confidence. Awesome.

5) Most importantly, you assume that people here want to trade the 5m. The vast majority of us do not, because we have jobs, social lives, families, etc. Most of us would much rather do other things than stare at the screen all day.

In short, the reason you seeing more people 'progress' from higher timeframes to the m5 chart is because it was never the goal of learning or trading the method. Some people might have ended up there, whether by chance or otherwise, but it isnt like there is some kind of progression we are all trying to move along.

Have a nice weekend all
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  #49195  
Old Dec 4, 2009 1:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Musanto View Post
I wonder why in this thread people still jumping between pairs, tf and not focussing trade on one pair and one smaller tf like m5 like James.
Why still no progress ,after all this year I see no one here trade in m5 ?
Many reasons, but here are a few.

1) You assume that trading a 5m chart is the same as trading a 1hr chart. It isnt. The market dynamics are very different. What works in one market doesnt necessarily work in others. More on this later. Of course, some things still do - but why limit the tools available? Continuing this point, if we can see that the timeframes lead to different dynamics, that means you need to change the way you trade. Which means that 'focussing' on one pair and smaller timeframes doesnt really add as much benefit as you think.

Can you learn to trade a new timeframe, based on the tools and skills you have? Sure. Of course you can. But you have to trade differently for each one. And if you dont, you will lose.

2) You assume that 'jumping between pairs' is a drawback, and that 'drilling down into one pair' is a positive. Following on from (1), you can see that this is actually backwards. Trading different charts on the same timeframe is easy, because you can use the same skills and tools that you have worked on. Trading different timeframes on the same chart, on the other hand, is counter productive. The best way to get more setups is to trade more charts, not smaller ones.

3) You assume that one could 'catch all movements', ie somehow net the day's volatility. You cant, because you only trade certain setups. So by dropping to the m5, you effectively limit yourself to catching small moves, as opposed to big ones, and they dont necessarily appear more often. Why? Because small market moves are part of big market moves. They arent an independent entity. Going from the h1 to m5 might get you 12 times more bars, but it doesnt get you 12 times more setups.

4) As discussed in (1), you assume that smaller timeframes are the same as larger ones. They arent. As your timeframe decreases, the signal:noise ratio gets higher. Why? Because it takes smaller orders to move the market x% of the bar you are looking at. Following that, we can conclude that the bar shapes you see on lower timeframes are less significant than those on a higher timeframe. So, combined with (3), we would be catching smaller moves with lower confidence. Awesome.

5) Most importantly, you assume that people here want to trade the 5m. The vast majority of us do not, because we have jobs, social lives, families, etc. Most of us would much rather do other things than stare at the screen all day.

In short, the reason you seeing more people 'progress' from higher timeframes to the m5 chart is because it was never the goal of learning or trading the method. Some people might have ended up there, whether by chance or otherwise, but it isnt like there is some kind of progression we are all trying to move along.

Have a nice weekend all
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  #49304  
Old Dec 7, 2009 12:13am
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Q) Oil and Gold are priced against the US dollar. On Friday, Non Farm Payroll data came out which was better(bullish) than the forcasted results. This result strenghtened the US dollar . Therefore the price of Gold began to drop , however the price of oil went up (if the dollar strengthened the oil price should have also dropped??)
My understanding is that the price of Oil went up because the employment figures were good, more people are in jobs and therefore more oil is reqired by industries/offices heating etc. Am I understanding this correctly?...
Pretty much, yes.

Broadly speaking:

Bullish data -> strengthening economy -> greater demand for oil -> oil up

Bullish data -> strengthening economy -> decrease in risk aversion -> money flows out of 'safety' assets (like gold) and into risk-seeking assets, like oil/shares/high yielding currencies.
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  #49304  
Old Dec 7, 2009 12:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipage View Post
Q) Oil and Gold are priced against the US dollar. On Friday, Non Farm Payroll data came out which was better(bullish) than the forcasted results. This result strenghtened the US dollar . Therefore the price of Gold began to drop , however the price of oil went up (if the dollar strengthened the oil price should have also dropped??)
My understanding is that the price of Oil went up because the employment figures were good, more people are in jobs and therefore more oil is reqired by industries/offices heating etc. Am I understanding this correctly?...
Pretty much, yes.

Broadly speaking:

Bullish data -> strengthening economy -> greater demand for oil -> oil up

Bullish data -> strengthening economy -> decrease in risk aversion -> money flows out of 'safety' assets (like gold) and into risk-seeking assets, like oil/shares/high yielding currencies.
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  #50282  
Old Dec 22, 2009 7:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
sounds like your next destination

u might wanna consider our place:
nice weather, cheap cost of living, wide array of living standards, u get to trade 3 or more market opens (most particularly Frankfurt, London & New York opens; Europe open is just 2hours after lunch; NY open is right around dinner time)
But the south of Spain means you have easy access to El Bulli - I feel lucky this year!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
Relax. Let the trades come to us. If we don't get a setup today, no worries. If we don't get a setup tomorrow, or even this week, no worries. That also means we didn't lose any trades today, tomorrow, this week. It's about putting our money on the line ONLY when we see a valid, tested, proven on demo, edge.
This is really, really good advice. So I'm quoting it so everyone can read it again - consider it a xmas gift

There really is no need to 'force' action - *not* trading costs you nothing. It isnt like a sport where you have a limited amount of time to achieve a certain score, or a game of poker where every round costs you 1.5BB, or if you were trading as a pro and had to make x% per annum or you get your ass fired.

We can just sit back and wait for the A++ trade - like Jim said (what feels like) a lifetime ago, sniper in the bushes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Now I need to turn that whole ethic around, have fun, relax, kick back and concentrate on the fun.
I'm just catching up on the last stack of posts, and the psych discussion has been insightful.

I used to struggle with all that stuff - whether my personality affects my trading, whether I need to examine my motivations so I can better trade in line with my mental profile, whether I overthink/underthink and whether that is a good/bad thing, finding the right balance for my beliefs in myself and my abilities, etc.

After a bunch of reading and talking to people, I pretty much came around full circle - if you see a really good trade, take it. If not, dont.

Psychology is overrated, for me anyways, and I dont even think about it anymore. It just gives me an excuse to overanalyse myself and a bunch of 'soft' subjects/issues, instead of looking at what actually matters - charts, numbers, trades.

That's what I get for venturing outside things that are quantifiable, examinable and within my realm of expertise (ie, numbers, trades and markets) and into the land of Dr Phil and Mark Douglas.

Sure, you could argue that you cant 'ignore' psych because it is part of your mental makeup and can affect everything you do, but if I do a pretrade analysis and there are a bunch of 'pro' and very few 'con' entries, then who cares whether I am in a bad mood or whatever.

Or, in the words of a wise man: F*ck it Dude, let's go bowling.
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  #50298  
Old Dec 22, 2009 11:47pm
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Maybe I should not have even brought this subject up...ha ha.....it seems like there has been quite a backlash to the evil "psychology" word. To me there are differences in trading demo, trading real money, trading a huge account and trading other peoples money.
If anything, I think people are more pro trading psych than against around here. Which is fine, it has its place I guess.. I just think some people take it too far

IMO, mentally, there is simultaneously a huge difference and no difference between trading demo, trading live, and trading big money live... and that difference is completely up to the individual - if you choose to make them different, then they will be. How zen.

(obviously they can differ strategically, since a small account and a large account will trade within a different framework - trades that are appropriate for one may not be for the other, etc)

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I don't know anyone who can calibrate themselves outside of the moment they are in. If you can do this, write a damn book, I'll buy it. That would be magic.
I dont think it is that difficult - people do it every day. I'm sure you have at some point been in a bad mood and had to meet a client/customer/etc and be professional and analytical. Setting aside my emotions to concentrate on the task at hand has always come pretty easily to me (if only my gf was the same!), but I dont think that's a unique trait.

In trading, I find it even easier, since you can quantify things pretty precisely, and eliminate the 'gut feeling' side that is usually your mind playing tricks and convincing you to act a fool.

...oh, and my book would be full of swearing, photos of Kate Beckinsale and me wandering off into tangents about things that annoy me. And probably take four hundred pages to get to the actual point.

Then again, Dan Brown and Twilight both sell tens of millions of copies, so maybe people arent that discerning


ps: did you stay at hanalei bay resort? I loved it there. So damn peaceful. And swim-up bars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
(BTW, psychology is not part of your mental makeup. It is your mental makeup. and is everything you think and do, but that might be too simplistic a description - I am not an expert.)
This is true, and definitely poor phrasing on my part. I was more referring to (over)analysing my 'trading pyschology', as broadly defined as my thoughts/feelings towards a particular trade or market, my emotional state at the time, and any other peripheral issues that dont show up on a chart or in a quote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Paradoxically, psych is important until the point where it is no longer important... to the individual. =)
That's probably a much better way of putting it
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  #50334  
Old Dec 23, 2009 7:12pm
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I am at another place - secret.
Very jealous.

----

Have a good Christmas and New Year, everyone. See you again in 2010 to compound some more dollars
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  #50464  
Old Dec 29, 2009 9:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
This here pin bar seems pretty significant.... will trade! (or holiday gambol!)
That's a very small bar after some very big bars in a sea of chop.

As long as you know what you are doing, though.... just dont hit on a soft 18
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  #50559  
Old Dec 30, 2009 10:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Investor7 View Post
Actually, it is above the red 365, the one its trying to reach is the blue 150...
Are we sure that price is trying to reach the moving average?

Happy new years everyone. Stay safe (and drunk) and have a good night!
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  #50625  
Old Jan 3, 2010 6:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XNAdam View Post
The breakup was what it was. Gotta accept the loss and move on, right?
Should have shorted her before she got dumped into the market

Welcome to the trading gang! Great bunch of people here, as you probably know, so post plenty of charts/trade ideas to get feedback - having Mike or Jim (or Mike or Jim) look over your trades is a huge leg up in the learning curve.
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  #50718  
Old Jan 5, 2010 3:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marcelnyo View Post
Hi, I guess here is a better place as any, there is mbqb11 here who practically lives in this thread...
Mike is like Chuck Norris - he doesnt sleep. He waits.


Quote:
Originally Posted by marcelnyo View Post
Have you read through all of the public thread? I think bundyraider lives in australia, though I don't know for sure.
Bundy does, to the extent that we consider Queenslanders 'Australian'.

There are probably about ten or so active Aussies in this thread. I'd wager there are a fair few lurkers, too.
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  #50729  
Old Jan 5, 2010 4:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treefingers View Post
Reason I ask about Aussie is more to do with the fact that I only get a couple of hours in the evening i.e now 8pm to 10ishpm. Like many others I imagine I do long hours in my day job & have 2 young children so don't get much time to myself. I can barely keep my eyes open these days past 10.30pm so was just kind of wondering how others in similar position manage it. From what I can see most of the action goes on here while I am sleeping and I guess its the same on the PF.
I wont lie - it isnt easy

Most of the market action happens between London open (6pm) and NY close (7am). I generally dont finish work until late (7ish, although still here tonight! ), so I usually do any trading either in between 8pm and about 2am (also: insomnia isnt *all* that bad), maybe some sneaky trades while I am at work (or at least checking open trades).

If you were to *just* trade the daily charts, you would only really need to devote half an hour each day when one bar closes and the next opens.

Otherwise, if you can, trade the 4H charts. I probably devote 5m-15m to checking the charts each 4H, and even then I am not religious about it. I'll usually check 6am in the morning when I wake up, 10am/2pm at work, 6pm either at work or on the way home, and 10pm at home. Maybe 2am if I cant sleep. That's anywhere between 3 and 6 signals per pair each day, depending on how busy I am.

If there is something interesting, it might take 15-20m for that check/trade plan/entry/exit. If everything is quiet (ie, most of the bars during the day), it takes 5m max to flip through the charts. The key, I think, is to doing all your markup/PPZs/trade ideas at home at night so you can just eyeball the chart quickly and move on if nothing is happening.

Also, if you miss a signal, it isnt the end of the world - another will be by soon enough to donate some money to your bank account.

That's the best part - unlike more intensive forms of trading, we dont *need* to be in front of the computer for 8 hours straight. We can choose to devote as much, or as little, time as we want just by choosing which timeframe we trade.

Either way, demo it for a bit, and see what fits in with your lifestyle.
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  #50733  
Old Jan 5, 2010 5:10am
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Quote:
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im curious..
how has insomnia affected your trading & health (since they're interrelated)?
Health is fine. I still manage to lift 4x a week and go for a jog the other days, so I guess I am surviving..

.. does it have a detrimental effect on trading though? Sometimes, definitely. I can be irritable when tired, as we all can, and in the past that occasionally turned into a big of shooting from the hip - i'll teach that stupid market who the boss is type thinking. I've pretty much overcome that though, just by realising that I am being a dumbass and stopping myself.

Tiredness has never really affected my concentration/focus, at least in a way that would compromise my decision making or analysis, but that probably varies from person to person.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
how long have u been trading this way?
It isnt really a trading thing, just how I am. Have been since a little before I started uni, maybe ten years? Trading just fits with it nicely - I'd be up reading/playing poker/watching bad TV anyways, so might as well make some money!

As for just playing 4H/daily bars? Pretty much since reading Aaron's 4H journal....basically all this year. Oh, and since I figured out that there is a $ sign above the 4 on your keyboard, and it isnt a coincidence

It suits me perfectly, although I do other trading on the side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
how's your nutrition (we know lack of sleep has a detrimental effect on us)? i presume u used nutrition to counterbalance this (lack of sleep).
I drink 4 double lattes a day?

I have a pretty clean diet, since I am trying to get (back) in shape a bit, but I dont do anything special to counteract it.
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  #50736  
Old Jan 5, 2010 6:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treefingers View Post
Luckily I work on a trade floor so during the day I have constant access to the markets but would be very risky to place personal trades from the office.
iphone + remote desktop + make friends with the compliance guys

in regard to the thread, most of the action is in the london/ny sessions, so I usually just post before bed and check the next day, but there is usually someone to chat about a chart or potential trade with most of the day as well.

Good luck with it - you have definitely found your way to one of the few worthwhile trading group in the cesspool known as the internet
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  #50778  
Old Jan 5, 2010 1:32pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
if joel is referring to TiaForex... check his own thread (it was discontinued).
if it's not the one, then he must be referring to Aaron's journal inside the James16 PF.
Sorry - I was referring to the latter.
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  #50788  
Old Jan 5, 2010 2:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
The way I try to remember in my simple brain is:

2 or 4 decimals = PIP
3 or 5 decimals = PIP Fraction
My brain must be even simpler - 4th decimal, unless it's a yen pair

...although, technically, i think the convention is (or was, it was an ooooold book I was reading) 4 decimal places, unless the quote is over 20 (3 dp) or over 80 (2dp)... it just happens that the yen is the only major that matches these criteria, unless you are trading exotics. which you shouldnt. so stop it.
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  #50824  
Old Jan 5, 2010 8:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desperate View Post
plus of a trendline
That's a very small bar following a very big move, heading into some heavy traffic.

And most of the time, those end in tears.

Click image for larger version

Name:	10.JPG
Views:	50
Size:	127.1 KB
ID:	387281

(also, note how well following the rules protects you from these wussy pins!)
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  #50831  
Old Jan 5, 2010 10:56pm
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi guys, i know some of you have bearish bias on GBPUSD. But I am seeing BUOB on daily and weekly chart. Indications for future movement? Any comment?
That's a pretty big 2d pin, with the trend, followed by a pretty forceful break.

I'd tread lightly, until PA indicates otherwise.
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  #51021  
Old Jan 7, 2010 6:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pip Pride View Post
I haven't seen anyone describe the stages of becoming a trader before; usually its one of two camps either noobies or seniors/expert/profitable. Really helpful.
You guys dont know how lucky you are - Mikerants are rarer than... something really rare. The Hope Diamond, four leaf clovers, girls as hot as Kate Beckinsale, etc.

...

This was my framework i made for a friend who wanted to 'learn daytrading'

retard - me click buttan on interwebs 4 PiPz!@#
newbie - read books/forums, get headache
learner - misapply things they read, lose money, blame everyone

--------most people stop here and system hop-------------

losing trader - knows a little but misses the big picture
breakeven trader - knows how, but still doesnt have all the pieces
winning trader - understands how to apply correctly

---------people who are happy trading systems stagnate here---------

ninja trader - tailors rules to the environment
scholar - understands why, as well as how.. uses concepts, not rules
teacher
Master

----------------------

Jim, Johnny 5.
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  #51023  
Old Jan 7, 2010 6:44pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
ok man some people are going to want to punch me b/c I know my rants are long.

(...)

I get the must psyched when those few people msg me about how they are now battling with the fact they have gotten so picky. The reason being is b/c I know they have a chance at this. B/C sure they wont be increasing their accounts by wild % every month, but they can grow that way. It is very hard not to make money on the very best bars.
If anyone wants to punch you, they should reread this. Twice.

And if they still do, send 'em here
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  #51025  
Old Jan 7, 2010 6:59pm
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Originally Posted by ninreznor View Post
Should i be drawing trend lines at the high/lows or open/closes of bars?
Generally, you want to go with high/low for forex markets - that shows you where price went to, where it stopped/reversed, etc. Open/close in the forex market, esp on lower timeframes, are really just arbitary times that dont mean much.

Some people use open/close, but mainly for stocks on the daily (where open and close numbers are important).
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  #51293  
Old Jan 12, 2010 5:08am
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Originally Posted by gasgas View Post
I see guys trading here...Me still waiting for a first valid trade in 2010. Can one become to picky?
nope.. I'm firmly in Team 'Sucky Sideways Markets = No Trades for 2010' with you
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  #51312  
Old Jan 12, 2010 7:41am
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Originally Posted by dobe_r_man View Post
If it closes like this, it is definitely what I look for in terms of confluence:

1) 2 day pin (assuming it closes as such)
2) Hits pivot area and rejects (though within zone)
3) Hits downward sloping trendline
4) Rejects 61.8 fib as well as 50 fib and .9600 round number

Nathan
I have concerns about the size of the bars... there are some big moves around lately, and so I'd probably want either a convincing close below .9500 (below the cluster of bar highs and the big number), or have the lower timeframes paint a strong picture, but otherwise it is a very tidy looking trade... nice pickup!

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  #51317  
Old Jan 12, 2010 7:53am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
I don't trade this pair but It's strongly Correlated with GOLD right?
Not really, because both Australia and Canadia are significant gold producers.

u/c and a/u are more closely correlated to gold.
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  #51319  
Old Jan 12, 2010 8:06am
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Originally Posted by dobe_r_man View Post
The only good thing is in some cases when you have that cluster of bars like this if the area goes it gets demolished.
Absolutely - just looking at the way price has reacted, you have to assume there are going to be a ton of stops right below that area, and if they get hit... well, off to the races

Quote:
Originally Posted by dobe_r_man View Post
BUT, a more conservative way would be a break below .9500!
lol, i think I have just turned into a big, risk averse girl in my old age
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  #51324  
Old Jan 12, 2010 8:48am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Thanks Joe.

Thats what i am seeing.
Correlations can be tricky things - they often present a pretty misleading picture, and people misuse them (not that I am saying you are one of those people, but I have seen it happen way too often).

What you are really seeing is a picture of risk attitudes. The driver isnt gold, or aud, or cad... but something that drives all three

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  #51328  
Old Jan 12, 2010 9:09am
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Originally Posted by Krysztau View Post
Hi guys,
Thanks for your earlier answers to a question I posted. I took a trade short on UJ I posted in post quoted below [picture attached is here:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1263171240
I think the problem here is that it is a pretty substandard setup - the 2 1/2 day pin is small, doesnt have much confluence, the bar formation is kinda weak, and it's headed right into a world of traffic and a round number. Nothing there jumps out at me and makes me want to throw money at it.

Just out of interest, when you placed your trade - where did you see price going to? I wouldnt expect it to get past .9200-.9180 (where the purple line is), if it even got that far. Jim's 'where is price going?' series really hammers this point home, and its an important one.

in fairness, you did let it break the bar lows, which was a smart move - but I wouldnt have gone near it with a bargepole. Not that I really know what a bargepole is, but whatever. I still wouldnt take it

in regards to your stop, the placement looks good, but alot of guys like to do a '2 bar trail' type system, where you basically have a loose trailing stop. I dont really use that, but if I was drunk enough to get in on this setup, I would have had my stops at b/e as soon as humanly possible - too much traffic -> high probability of price coming back on us -> dont lose money.

And, as always, rule #1 is 'dont lose money'.

Do you really want to spend your time chasing these ones, which offer - based on that chart of the entry - probably 15 pips? Sure, you might get lucky... but 99/100, you wont.

Look at that setup, and then look at the one circa 8500. I know which one I want to back.

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