fti,
Before I read your utube post, this morning I was reflecting on the e/u and its movement this week and in conclusion I thought to myself she painted a picture and she was telling a story threw her movement.
As I recognized this fact I needed to pay closer attention to what shes drawing, and to take note stroke by stroke so Im attentive to what shes trying to tell me.
After reading your post I can't imagine putting energy into or telling the story teller what turn the story should take.
Doc doesnt either.
@lilpip,
You already know, so why do you do her wrong?
The human brain is 38x more powerful than the fastest supercomputer in the world
Most supercomputers in the world is 100000x faster than normal domestic group. However, this supercomputer but the power is not enough for the average human brain. This study showed Dharmendry Modhy, head of IBM Research Institute.
...but the human brain only works on 10%?!?
Gro,
Actually the human brain only uses <=>2% of resources at any time. That's because much is for data warehousing. But its ashame that much resources are hynotised by "intrusion media" into fictitious possibility thoughts and too much is assigned to emotional dramas. The poor brain waste much time resources on sieving out pieces of illogical junk thats handed to it from storage due to faulty input. And pity to those over-loaded brains who actually is overwhelmed by the junk load. With help at ward 13, some do recover, but need rebooting regularly.
Just for your enlightenment, there is no master, all are students,at different levels for the mastery. And I do no like to live on a house at the top of the hill. It attracts too much of everything. So for me , sorry , no hill to come down from.
Have been keeping well.
Book is very good too. did 3X on the book already.
The financial chaos is giving much opportunities. If this keeps up, Annualised ROI would be in the thousands %.
But surely the markets will tame down a little soon, lets see.
This stuck to my dealing desk, although fun is dragging me out of my retirement. Was invited to a pow wow, so am considering it. http://www.twinbeach.com/
But of course I would be camping out there on a boat instead.
tracking back your posts, you said that technical indicators are only statistical facts and i agree, and that you said market makers only mark prices when large orders at different levels are staring at each others, if thats the only reason they move the market for, give me one reason as to why S/R levels appear to work, and what created them in the first place,
yes.. somebody needed to shape our market understanding in order to take FULL advantage, how would he?, im sure you know the answer...
Hi Obaidah,
Given that you do not understand and having no handle of my methodology(that which I use), it would be difficult for you to understand me. However giving that you had posted some stats thats about correct, I would like to highlight to you that general use of the Resistance/Support level guides would generally give you odds equal to flipping a coin.
This perspective to the markets can do your book little harm while the markets performs at and near it standard deviation(SD) means. Trouble become evident when she performs to the 2nd and 3rd SD levels.esp at 3rd SD. Given that, the behaviour of markets are human emotional driven, it would generally conform to the bell curve. (syne curve).
The market activities recently encompasses much ,"hard hand intervention" and had been behaving more towards the digital characteristics (square wave) manipulated behaviour, but as in all things, it will return analog ultimately.
All things, when left to it own, returns to the state of its origin,nature. "Law of equilibrium" aka yin yang.
yup 1% made,
scout still in ...
90 mins to news ,still a lot of time for her to dance
Yeah,maheswara
Something's driving her.
No time to find out, yet, any excuse is good as another.
Watch that momentum, like I said sometings or someone's driving her.
no, not me.
But the book's having a ball.
I started to read this thread from the beginning again on every weekend. Found out I was quite naive at that time.
And today, I learned a lesson: I should get up very early every Monday moring. Today missed good opportunity to long agian E/U around 2840, and G/U around 3900. I chased G/U with 85 pips banked in. E/U 13 pips only by now---only fish tail.
Hi Green_David
My friend I think you take from just learning about "fish tails and fish heads",therefore to...
Hi Gro & David, sanding something?
I woke up early today , and did my chi exercises, but read that heli was talking and watched. I don't know. maybe mkt didn't liked him. He was like trying to impress that "mother was a woman". then the momentum against the usd began. A lot of if this and if that. Lets see IF this may carry into NY session. Maybe IF the feds do come into the mkt , it may just undo the damage.and thats a BIG if. The chap sure has a bad repo with the mkts.horrendous timing for him. With all this better Euro CPI, I don't know.Only that she's seems a long legged woman in a WHITE dress.What a fish.
Qi Gong(Chi) is a very good exercise. Try Tai Chi also. I am too young for that, not easy to be quiet.
Heli. is that Bernanke?
Closed G/U at 4152, now it is 4224, E/U 3030, 3023, now 3039. But anyway, green pips are green pips.
I shorted U/J at the time of longing E/U @2940. -33 pips now, wished I have used that part of money to open more E/U or G/U positions. Another lesson: concentrate the pair I am familiar with.
David, sorry that I forgot to tell you.
When I was young the late fuzhou SM, SS Huang from sibu was my sifu.
possibly why I am so reactive to imbalance. Still can remember the days when he repelled me with 7 others who charged him with a log during the chi demos at training center at Sg Besi. Powerful old man he was.
I become piggish just now. Shorted E/U everage @3035, G/U @4178.
What do you think?
Hi David,
At this moment. my scout is short Eur usd too.
but he's like untouchable based on my daily foreign cap. the army captured.
Itchy butt too. moreover usd bear momentum is quite a force to deal with today.
so very nimble please.
regards
sharks, just took profit in the nick of time.
lloks like retracement is expected, but I won't risk that, being not short usd is good enough for me. must control my greed and discipline.
But EUR is still very very strong, wish 3015 broken and some sitting ducks come out to help the run.
I am prepared to close at any time, anyway it is against the main trend.
seems retracement may be deep or may change the momentum, but I am challenging profitability against discipline. Unless you butt very itchy, you are at liberty to try. this action is not piggish, just bloddy greedy. looking from the hourly perspective, You may see profits there too, just little less prudent behaviour. Careful that it is small and nimble. If you have little or no daily foreign cap, then may want to be less adventurous. You had been warned.
looking from the usd fig releases, I don't see much usd bull potential. chet will be lip servicing later, unless he wants to shoot his own foot. potential seems on usd bears. Any ways time to slow a little , too much profits for the day already.
Yes i agree with you fti. Greed is a sin. Do you have a dayly or weekly goal in trading that you meet and walk away?
no, belekas, I do not subscribe to rigidity in most forms. But if profitability may cause my breaking discipline, then I tend to sit back to check the mindset before taking the plunge.
I found out if I have a position even it is a very small like a scout, I am willing to dance. Otherwise, I may wait for the price it never comes while missing many good opportunities.
yeah, like I said before.
Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference, feeling her isn;t easy.becomes too subjective with emotional overplay. With a scout in , you would be able to feel better.
either you're on or totally out , if scout is "dead in waters".
At least the feel is objective.
Hi David
you write "I am bad dancer"?!? ...curious bad dancing!!!
congratulations!
PS
bear wants to kill himself - jumping out the window
no la Gro,
bear didn't jump out the window.
just found out that the bears were in the market.
the big bears just squared for lunch.
but the usd bulls are no where to be seen.
now I have a platform of form for the after lunch strategy.
we'll watch after lunch,
usd bear run is over.
After lunch I gotta get the feel if the usd bulls are dead, which I doubt.
can they recapture market control, that is the question.
if the test of support is decending then we will know won't we.
meantime the scout bleeds until I can get a better feel.
no Gro bear not that.
Its just that after more than 14 hours of buillding up bear positions. She gets a little overweighted. Then mkt must find an excuse to shake the weak holders off the trail.The sell off point was 00. how the market dance the 00 will tell us whats her mood.
there are only two possibilities, so watch out for tell tale signs, She will signal you at least 3 times before her move, probably more. so you may want to prepare another scout, the earlier scout had done his job.
If the other scout deploy, also gets in trouble , based on your reading then we know that we are on the wrong trail. Otherwise the trend is intact.
but if the trend remains intact, do not be decieved that a Eur run is eminent. Note that we are on the forth day of bear usd run.so be prepared for a fight at the tops. Let the mkt show where it resists, do not have R/S or lines. You will truely be able to feel where it truely resist. Failing that it resist , you will have windfall profits. Then take opportunity to slowly diffuse any attacks that you may had implimented during the run, if any.
If resistence is detected, bail out scout and army in a hurry.
No smoking at all.
It is that your video reminded me of
the similarity between the Zen practice of breath watching
and
the dance practice of PA bar watching.
In both cases, the teachers reminds us
not to become attach to patterns or thoughts.
Best wishes,
Oh, Lusan , OK I miss understood, I thought you discovered, new stuff. Like Watts said, we make the thought, its all actually related.
Is U/J price now a sampan, dingy, or a helicopter?
If it is a helicopter, I better cut with 11 -pips.
Who can tell me?
E/U and G/U sitting ducks out?
Ai ya whats with the pips, think from your feel, never think because of pips.
If its good, strategise a fight plan.
If you feel uncomfortable, just set it free la.
At least then your thinking will not be paralysed with the position.
Based on YEN chart read , there is a little usd drop expected, upside usd potential already tested, and nothing doing there.
now the pic clears, lets see if the bears that bailed can get on board again without chasing.
preparing attack sequense for after lunch now.
its going to be fast so no commentary from me.
Each man look after you own butts.
and don't jump the gun, remember after lunch and when the head are lipping, please, or you butt itches, whichever comes first.
comes with the job, my friends.
occupational hazzard, only wish there was a crystal ball,
makes life easier, but crystal balls break , balls of steel doesn't.
probably nothing.
U see it is quite clear already.
The mkt is caught too over weighted bear USD.
then although there's much reason to bear stampede.
The market is trying very hard to shake off some .
the usd bulls are no where in sight , if they were we would had a reversal already.
The usd bears are self feeding, and this may take some time.
So anyway the mkts will carry into tokyo zone, should be interesting.
and I have to be on her. Todays profits , well in book already, only that I will be trying to capitalise on the on going momentum.
For now only the strong holders may survive into Tokyo.
If I hadn't tajken out the attack earlier, would be dead as doornail by now.
not necessarily.
after a shake down, depending on how deep they wanna shake. then they may play in thin twinlight. and when tokyo comes on the bears that got shaken out may find it hard to find levels to reinstate.
Or course we may play right into a reversal, but there seems no signs of that yet. Thats why I have to be on her, just in case she does. although its only scouts out there, the discipline is to manage them professionally. I cou;d just cut tail , as loss is insignaificant, or set a stop and leave it to fate and brokers. Then that, I guess is the difference between a pro and the novice.
Personally, I think there are some stops below 1.2950 on the E/U and 1.4050 G/U and the dealers are trying to run them...either now or during the Asian session.
well, there will always be stops and limits all over the place, I think you would know why by now. But that doesn't say anything about the status of the market. You may be suprised that the stops on top may get triggered. No one truely knows. It more important to feel what she's doing and respond to her with appropriate strategies that are adequately capitalised that no illogical actions be tempted by fear or panic. Even if positions are wrong , there are still viable strategies to use to damage control.
My best days are when I turn a loss into a profit. If you had traded long enough you would understand.
like I was trying to educate all who aspires to trade for a living. Trading needs you to be in control always. If you give that away for any reasons whatsoever, then there is a price you will have to pay for that liberty.
Trust me,when I tell you that I had seen all kinds in the market. Success in trsding requires class discipline at the extremes coupled with mental and skills resilence of the highest order. To trained people , its normal everyday stuff, unfortunately this is alien to the masses mindsets.
May i ask what made you come to the following conclusions?
The worst thing in trading is adding to bad positions.( So you never rescue until you can determine that the rescue is done, not on the impulse wave)
When a position is bad, you must always be on defensive if you are to add to the existing position. First and foremost you should never add to a market thats cutting into the bleeding. ( the maxim is that you never catch falling knifes and shooting rockets).When an opportunity to add surfaces within a time windows of within x bars of last position, it is doing so out of window, ie if this opportunity was real then you wouldn't be able to catch it due to its volatility anyway. Then if the opportunity avails further from that then there is a strong possibiliity that a reversal was of high possibility. So for prudence , you have to re access the analysis to determine if the action is "best practise".
x is a function of the volatility detemined by visual ATR.
In all syne waves you will see a forward wave and a back wave. We call them left hand and right hand waves. Elliott did good explaination about the impulse and retrace, but found difficulty when his impulse wave counted into left hand wave. Late Elliottians adopted alternative counts to accommodate of left had waves, but the err in wave fitting the 5 counts and extended 5 counts complicated the count to bogus wave fitting & counting. I use this in its most primitive.
For todays example if you look at the Eurusd we had just moved on the up waves to right hand, whereas before the leg down to 12950, the right waves were downwaves. For the wave sequense to satisfy the basic dow theory of "trend" and to stay with trend, the right hand must satisfy the required condition.
As always your words carry so much wisdom and information. Have been reading this for the past 50 minutes now, trying to understand fully all that you have said. In short to resuce earlier would of resulted in trades being taken during the impulse wave, one should wait for the impulse wave to finish before looking for the opportunity to resuce. hope i have understood this correctly.
What do you mean by this? [i]"Then if the opportunity avails further from that then there is a strong possibiliity that a reversal was of high possibility"...
mom pls, situation requires attention , just missed an oppor earlier,over stayed some positions.
I hope that no one got into serious trouble with their positions.
Just to update, at Tokyo session I scalped a little and recovered some pips that the loss booked. Energies was on the low , so I hit the sack for a little.
Anyway the booked loss is small, so was not a problem. What was disturbing was the state of the market when the loss was booked. It felt weird that my small positions was impacting mmaking. My broker attributed that to that I had placed offer in the market showing my hand earlier, that the dealers had shaded the price on my request for one.
The fact that, my small actions filtered to reflect on retail and charts, thats the one thats disturbing. How could it? I must be getting paranoia, but I watched it unfold. Could be coincidence. Maybe, maybe not. Moreover it was thin wellington. But mkt gapping away just to fill me? Nevertheless, I think only prudent that I should stop posting my blotter in public, just for my own safety.
But then I will be bumping on the question of how else to communicate the essence of what the practical aspects of the presentation. I think you know my opinion, that hindsight tracking is not proactive, that much feel and thought data for serious examination may be sandboxed.
So now I sit amongst friends in public, and being unable to distinguish the hostile and the truly friendly. Sure opened a can of worms didn't I.
regards
mkts alittle nervous today, being a little toppish with stong possibility of it being policed. Strategies should be a little cautious. early fft seems a little more volatile.
I tried to follow you last night before I hit the sack. I am sorry to hear that public forums are giving you trouble again, it sure as hell was not my supersized positions, lol.
Was good experience anyway and ended the book on positive side, not much though.
Regards,
PS - momentum is back? Interesting fast action before London as if the market snoozed with me.
Hi piccolo, thanks for nudging me to the dark room.
hi,
left hand and right hand wave seems equally pumped. But seems that naggy feeling may be right. Soup of the day seems to favour USD, correct?
I think we'll get the hints before london shows.
if i had to have a scout in , he'll be probing the USD bulls.
There are more buyers of euro then of pound out there ...
now that comes to my mind , has any of the European bank failed ?
all I ve heard till now are US and UK banks , and Iceland as a country ...
Hi maheswara,
I think she's quite spooked as well, doing much directionless dancing. on a cruise to nowhere termprement today. Will need housing and building figs to catalyst movement.
For now dance to nowhere.
never rains
C dreamin
What a drag.
trying to keep myself alive.
try this...
Sister
but I think the Euro is doing her this dance. Check it out.
if you dig digital over analog, here is a preview to you future....robots. And this is analog decoded, imagine listening to the binary. LOL
usd bulls all around, but they are looking at the grass,
wonder what they are looking for?
whats with the saving defiant private companie?
OMG waves getting very square.
Yeeha! move you butts.
They may want approval from chet or king , probably king.
Lol, Yep, It looks like the bears are about to get on top again. I may be wrong but I get the feeling that there's no real direction at the moment. Dollar bears/Euro Bulls have run out of energy on the up side, but not really enough push south to break through supports
Maybe range for a while???????????????
Hi auxesis,
yesterday,the usd bears were so strong, then lost steam.
but they left a wide range trail.
today we are tight and inside day so far.
won't be too suprised that you may be right.
Hard to decide to either run with the bulls or bears,
but surely the bears had lost my affection for them for the meantime. Feel that if the Eur rally does come. it could be more because of the bulls cutting meat than bears finding their footing. I would like to be nimble bias to the bulls. really staying aside while the control is being worked out seems to be the order of the day. couldn't help but to feel that little bit horny.
but or course when I talk like that, It just means that I just can't figure out what to do. Anyway the bull usd scout didi make the pocket money for tthe day already.
Hi,
Since We are all sitting around not doing much, Just wanted to show you all, what some like to do. Just received this today. Talk about people. and he thinks this should bother me. Don't know if I should thank him for his envy.Sure hope its not eating him up too badly.
Hi Acs,
not for me, I am feeling very laid back , just like her.
some confused and slow. a tuesday feeling like fridays.
And me just a usd bull looking at grass. Mmakers day , sweeping every which way. Did scalp a little pips though.
and am very careful. Its hard to out-scalp Mmakers.
Hi Acs,
seems so.
But looks like king couldn't find very constructive suggestions to reform the banking situation. His hint that all is sitting on the shoulders of consumer confidence seems to suggest that the cable's vitality is off tthe hands of administrators. And his que about those 20heads, well, they better put on their thinking cap. So far seems clueless and without concrete directions. Looks like its all about confidence now. Mostly the works cut out for the usa. Lets see if the market will react to dollar strength, while every one else is gonna promote consumer power. Hope they got the inflation side of the coin in check while we spend them out of the woods.
thank you GRO, for a good summary of the importand parts of "the art"
i am working on a litle text about how i think a commander in batlle relates to a trader in the FX market.
this was lesson 1 on page 50 i don't want to read further because i want to think for myself and finish this lesson. on the other hand maybe this is a closed subject.... "lessons are finished, school is out" and TAF thread is social now.
i am happy to see you are back TFI. if school is out, you are here to meet friends/ former students and stopped mentoring...
no way I can play tennis with my racket strings broken ...
Maybe you should check if there's some robot between you sys and the markets.
you took too much from them already, la
Or maybe, they had putted you on manual EXECUTION... going shopping any time soon?
maybe for a walk too?
Good Morning Friends of the Dance!
Nice to see you all around here ;-)
@Gro: thanx for that german tube. A nice one ...
@fti: sailing away: very slow and smooth. Make it very difficult to keep my eyes open. Especially as my lady is not very agile this european morning ....
Wish you all a successful day ;-)
Hi,
I am sitting here, with a nice warm breeze blowing at my face.
Only things short, is the beach and a yacht for a ride.
She wanna dance , so here I am as always.
0914 GMT [Dow Jones] [...] However, an IMF warning that the recession in the U.K. could be deeper and longer than anticipated reversed market sentiment. The USD is up at Y98.78, the EUR is down a little at $1.2999, and the GBP is down sharply at $1.3940. (NEH)
Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464 Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com
March 18, 2009 05:14 ET (09:14 GMT)
Just right now: UK Jobless Claimants weaker...
When the Euro butters thru the floor , such would be nice to see what sort of kinky stuff chet's got up his sleeves.
[left]10 big sentences
Briefest and most use the basic ideas Sun:
Defeat the enemy army without fighting is the peak of war art.
Do not for the honor, money or fame, fight for victory.
Know yourself and your enemy.
Not Rely not attack, ensuring the insuperable position....
Hi Gro,
TAW(The Art of War) doctrine, is not something that I can teach anyone.
The statements made by Sun Zi is already clear enough.
No one can learn it.
The wisdom is there to be mentally explored and embraced.
Through that embracement, hopefully the student can form habits based on the knowledge contained.
In the finally, with practise it becomes you, when it is internalised through the habit process.
Surely in the process, if you have much deficiencies in you personality, it will become to you obstacles that you have to overcome. To each , in its own time.
It is difficult, more like impossible for forces outside you, that can assist the process. Moreover I know of no way to short circuit nor shortcuts.
Sorry about that "I'll be over you" song.
But its very realistic, story about many traders and their trades.
Not Unlike your "Song before I Go", the catch phrase "when you are travelling twice the speed...., its easy to get burnt."
One of the reasons I spent so much time trying to present what I know as facts to traders is because, I had seen much in my career, to know how much pain 's out there for many who punt just to be broken.So I thought that some may be helped. But the reality is there is little that can be done, if you had been following the thread. You may also like me realise, that until they learn the hard way. Who am I , to tell them otherwise.
I hope you will read the thread slowly, and thinking and making it work for you.
regards.
PS:The markets very iligocal at the moment, so trade carefully. Even I am at loss of whats taking place, just trying to follow and dance that which she is showing. The only way to trade markets. Ego wounds, as any usd bull will tell you now, after the figs. Its important to hold steadfast to truth.
Yes I do understand. this AOW interpretation I found somewhere and gave me so I gave him the thread here (the repetition is not harmful).
AOW is insurmountable work and live in ,it is better ,than just read it.
PS I am trying to the Albert Einstein theory "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Hi Gro,
I am much appreciative for all the work and repetition you had done. You have a good heart and you do beautiful work. It was for the others that may need it that I tried to add a little more for their understanding about what was required of them. Although all are of different backgrounds and personality. All traders behave similarly irrational when in trades esp bad trades. There is a very thin line that saperates the winner and lossers. And that is in the ingredients I had presented.
Any thoughts on e/u ranging 3113-3158 during lunch ?
The markets not in sync with the fundamentals as at this given moment. The general bias is stronger usd, but the other is happening. Thats why I always tell that you cannot trade the bias.Only what is happening in front of your eyes.
As traders , we may have a position bias, but its really easy if both bias and position was in line. Even I was caught buying usd after the fig. Fortunaetely my reaction to damage control afterwards allowed me to escape by the shirt tails. and am now still manuvering with a flat book, after such a strong move. And for me this is the the way to stay alive as a trader.
regards
I don't know about the levels, but that the distribution(of Ps and Ls) is not completed. So be very nimble. I suspect much blood on the streets base on the way she's dancing.(She's holding her breath here for a long time, testing the nerves of the usd bulls........Why?)
I believe that the market is caught long on usds.
Now we have to watch her for signs, of which may tell if these bulls may still be alive , when the day is over.
Since I am watch from the sideline.
I will try to explain a little technical analysis here.
When the figs were released neutral to favour ofthe usd. Many like myself jumped in buying usd.
noted the 5=7 min downward swing in the Eur and the cable.
It was very evident that from the bias perspective bull usd opportunity surfaced. after that , the markets reversed on strong swift upward bars. evidence that many bull had been caught and a series of loss cutting escalated the up swing. since then we have a possibility of a congested possible head shoulder formation, indicating that she is slaughtering some panicing sturbborn bulls.
Now she is trying to invite more usd bulls to try to top her off here, but with unfinished loss distribution and the lure that the upside for the Eur may be limited from theperspective ofthe daily bar range, some bulls may try to reinstate.If the usd buying is strong enough, then we will realise the general expectations that the head and should technical pic completes. Otherwise there will be another round of blooding.
Surely if the h/s confirms the usd buying will be swift as mmakers will duct the on slaught. But if you bet now, then the odds is 50/50.
I am incline to flow the flow than to bet against the original impulse although , my bias is bull usd.
Most important for me here is MM strategies and "feel".
So I keep asking her for signs, before I engage.
regards
If scouts got caught long usd wrongly, the situation can be remedied,. But if the attacks got caught, much bleeding would be the result. Therefore the MM strategies from here is mission critical.
You have a great reward for bull bias ... run the long race?
Hi Gro,
when I talk bias, i alwats talk from a usd vs currency perspective.
My bull was bull usd. read again the posts.
So I was very wrong, but I made money.
Now do you understand why I do not carry into figs and major events?
And why the MO using scouts , attack and rescues?
And why we must never fight flow?
And there's so much more.........without experience, its gonna be hard for the traders to understand.
Wait till you see 2000pip moves in one LEG runs.
regards
Do you know that the Nikkei225 futures in SIMEX a long time ago moved 10000 points in a matter of 15 minutes. More than 50 traders were bankrupted and became multi millionaires within that 30 minutes time range.
Some of them are my friends.
I am glad to hear that you are unharmed (but not surprised ). After a small loss I had to flip and made around +87 pips fully geared during london but sat out this news event.. after the first 240pip 1min candle the gambler in me wanted to buy but somehow I looked at the daily range and didn't think of this as a high probability trade and stayed out. Turns out there was room for much more.. but I am not that experienced to capitalize on such events (where would I get out?).
Interesting to note that FED has undone the usd/chf move...
Beware, interesting stuff gonna happen tomorrow.
When markets flow, you have no time to think.it is all reflex.
either you got it or you don't, you think and you'll be introuble.
i saw in one min such a jump havent seen that...i am happy most of you made money...
but i was thinking what if you are wrong side and then whoop 240 pips move against u in a mintue.... i dont know what to think... even MM is good if you can implement it... i dont see u can implement MM in this time...
V
Hi indianguyinny24,
If you are truely trying to learn.
Maybe reread the thread carefully. Then you will understand why that cannot happen, unless...........
Hi MaMood,
Profit is good, but please don't let it get to your head.
Just for your info, I just bot 3 mio usd at 95.73,74.75
to take profits.
Guess where I was short Usd/yen.
becareful of you mindset.
The profits are ok, it is booked, it all in a day's work.
But don't let it get to your head.
Laugh when you are spending it.
You are still in battle zone.
You had dropped her off across, why are you still carrying her in your mind.
Thank you very much for your warnings.
Did it very similiar to you, but a little smaller ;-)
Bought 0.8 Mio at 9578.
Only my scout is in the Battlezone, trying to stay in contact with the market ....
No, I think you are leting emotions into the trades.
I am watching to see if boj may come in with position overhangs, and you are carrying trades without fear?
Markets so thin I can hardly get quotes for up to 1 mio, and you have no fear with positions in this markets?
doesn't seem correct mindset.
i was thinking about the same thing. i (newbie) tought many marketmakers have to be counterparty to this move and they are very long on the dollar now.
they had to fight back by terrible snowballing on the $ bull side or they are waiting for a slowdown and turn and plunge a bear move very hard.
fti said tomorrow will be interesting. if the big guys are waiting, tomorrow the dollar will gain much ground.....
fti was bullish on the dollar so i guess many high rollers where... they have to make up for lost ground. or they allready did like fti, then the rally is over.
if they are still short of USD tomorrow i expect a retracement.
they have to "kill" retail winners to get their books square.
correct me if i am missing something. i am here for learning.
greetings jacco"""
Hey jacco,
thinking like that can get you killed very quickly.
You assume mmakers are stupid or what.
Although they are counterparties to your trade , they also know how to square down faster than you think.
Most of what you are saying is all speculation, without basis.
You had better reread the thread very carefully.
If anything during the gap away, many of the order junkies(limits and stops) were taken out in a splash. Guess who knew where your order bands sat.
regards
and what makes you think a retracement is eminent, Look at you charts , see any sign of it? Look at your daily and hourly charts what do you see?
Contarian thinking in explosive impulse can make you poor very fast. You must follow the market flows.
I hope you realise why many of you get slaughtered in markets.
Think carefully.
fti, I've been studying your thread for a few months now, still way back on page 155, but have been learning and practicing your teachings.
I've thought all along yours was the right way to trade, just didn't know how to do it, I think I'm getting there, although I'm still trading a demo account and testing using forextester software. I think it's time to move to a small live account, and trade fractional lots (according to leigh's spreadsheet from way back).
Anyway, sorry for rambling on, I just wanted to say I'm so glad you're back on...
Hi Alex,
please do not use spreadsheets.
You have to learn to react in "running battle scenarios"
Learn it correctly from the start.
In running battle scenarios even position and costing have to be guesstimated with your mind. Reliance on aid will lag you , just like chart indicators.
If you are newbie , going live , trade to the smallest that you can until you are fully orientated to what you are doing, there are many mindset traps and variances.
You need to get the necessary experience trading. Believe me you may carry much scorpions that you have to tame.
I do not carry trades into major news and event releases, these are wildcard gambles, that can be hard to manage in fast markets even if you may have a bias. This is very important.Doing so is gambling.The trick is to respond to the flow from the event
It is already discussed in the thread and with hands-on directions, during one of the fig releases.
Great to see that fti is back sharing his wisdom with us again and also to see some new faces here too.
As most of you probably know, I keep a close watch on fundamentals as part of my mo and have noticed a sharp rift between entering trades post news release. Last year, good news for the usd meant usually that it would strengthen as per the ff "usual effect" in the news section. Since the crisis has occurred this is no longer the case. Bad news for usd, usually means it will strengthen and good news on usd, means it...
Hi Dutchangel,
Interesting perspective you have on market figs.
Here's my outlook. Think about it and see if it makes any sense for you.
In reality, the major figs released, means nothing to the dealers/mmakers and traders.
Why do I say this?
From the perspective of traders and dealers. Traders react to market quotes from mmakers and reacts to the gyrations of the markets, managing their band of tolerance of their P&L swings.
From the perspective of the mmakers. They manage their position by leaning on the paper orders that they carry. Managing their price quotes and blotter based on what they can see accumulating in the market place. The higher tier they are the more they can see. That is why people like to be covered by a big brother tier one, that they may have some info.
So no real professional give a ... about the figs.
EXCEPT
snake oil men that depends on their ability to talk shop to sell wares.
Wannabe traders that think that they will be profitable thru their ability to be very learned. If anything the bias the that come from PREDICTING ability, will ultimately kill them. This is because the market is very efficient, in factoring the aspiration and gambles into the price.
The people who find real use of these releases of interim figs, are the economist, think tanks and policy administrators who using their "models" try to gauge the impact of their policies. These people look from mostly a macro perspective and are normally "long term" in outlook.
So what drives markets after fig releases, is basically mass of fear and greed.AND this canoot be PREDICTABLE.
1. As lusan mentioned, don't trade into major news.
2. But if I got caught on the wrong side, with such a huge move, likely that I am at the wrong side of the trend....
Hi hcong,
Your 2
------
Of course with much experience there are ways this can be managed. If you had much foreign cap and good MM, it is much easier.
Your 3
-------
In summary, Think managing within book capacity. In fast markets, survival depends on reflex. There is little time to strategise, and if initial strategy is in trouble, then just damage control. If you stop to think you will lag behind market, very far behind.
the London session we have now looks very normal (rangewise n volatility) ,
what I mean is that after such volatile market , the market now is far too calm ...
I felt those who sold the dollars last nite have stepped out of the market ...
am I right in anyway , or is it just false presumption ....
or may step off building.\
just jesting.
probably turned or are now
Now we will see how many usd bear will survive.
its gonna be musical chairs time.
I haven't had a losing day yet from the beginning of the year. However, today's massive flip is considered a loss for me because its a sign that I'm inching closer to losing control. My feel for the markets has grown but yesterdays and todays events are still new experiences for me (they're rare).
Happy trading peeps.
hpr,
talk about nervous,
yesterday I was quite at my limits as well.
and brokers missing hits left and right didn't make it any easier.
If I was at the banks, many heads would be rolling already.
Unfortunately as indiividual traders, it doesn't bother them much. Sure hope things will change , if retail forex ever gets itself of its infancy.
I hope I got the key points right here: "managing within book capacity", "damage control".
Thanks for your time.
yeah,hcong
I think you got the essentials.
But remember when you flip positions, do it only if you "experiencing" high momentum . Otherwise can get "screwed" both positions. The timing is crucial.
regards
And look at these markets, after the uneployment figs.
Super lame. What can I say? No more nerves left.
Guess, how usd bulls are feeling now....must be turning purple already.
So remember the lesson, the prices are no determined by buy/ sell orders.
Its dependant on the mmakers books and positions. This is OTC structure.
Imagine if you were caught long USD, were egoistical and had snowballed to the hilt.
Now every 10 pips push against you could make you poop where you sit.
Doesn't matter if the fundamentals are in your favour or you indicator show that you WILL be right. NOW is what counts. Enough said.
What you experienced yesterday is nothing.
You would be shocked of that which I had seen.
Maybe if you remember what I had being saying about MM and over gearing and these experiences. It would make for prudent and level headed traders, I hope.
you are right... no retracement in eur-usd and 200 p. up... was just using my fantasy and typing. and i was also thinking it was a good 50/61.8 ret, after the 3 month down move in eur-usd. still is ... but you look at naked charts here.
i promise i will not post here untill i've read the thread from front to back.
kind greetings, jacco
Hi j-pax,
I hope you do not take it too hard.Do post when you have questions about stuff you cannot fig out or if you have things you want second opnions on.
Its just that I have to make it very clear to many who are trained in reading markets erroneously, with PREDICTIVE undertones.
Many people have bias of markets and oipnions , we cannot help that, Its the analytical us. But we must be able to distinguish, objective bias from fixation errors. More important , we must be able to tear from bias , when wrong, to do the right things to save book.
You will slowly learn that to be profitable , being right is not important. Being reactive when wrong and ability to push the advantage when right is more important.
Like Gro rightly pointed out , only 2% of our thinking capacity is at optimum most times. Try not to overload with unnecessaries.
lets see if there are usd buyers at this level ...
cant seem to feel any though ...
HI maheswara,
Hope your lines are good now.
The markets are unstable.All these squeezing baffles me.
Maybe because I am very tired.
If this sentiment continues, trading on Friday would be unthinkable.
Whole day I had been scalping, really unable to trade.
I guess the markets teaching people to respect trends.
Hello FTI & Everybody,
Posting after a long gap. Was active when this thread was in infancy stage. But I am actively following all of FTI's teachings. Good to see lot of people learning how to dance.
Past 6 months I was working on internalising(is this a correct word?) the MO, MM and dancing technique.
Thanks FTI and all other members for a great contribution.
- WaveRider3 Have a wonderful Dance!
Hi WaveRider3,
welcome back, secret training, wow.
am new to forex, each time i do good technical analyses, i end up loosing my trades to fundamental releases. is there a way one can trade without eing affected by fundamental news? this just makes trading difficult for me. thanks
Thanks to indianguyinny for your vote of confidence.
Much obliged.
Hi jephthah,
I had been thinking for the longest time on how to answer you.
You said you are new to forex.
and You do good tech analysis. I suspect you are new to Tech Analysis as well. Because Technical analysis is just tools traders use to assist in their decision process and feel of the market undertones. It is difficult to determine good or bad analysis. The analysis can only guide to formulate strategic response to the trading. If you hit the wall often although you think you may have the correct outlook, then the problem may exist in your strategies.
Fundamentals and events drives the market. Technical Analysis does analytics on the foot prints of the fundamental impacts that had been factored into the market place. Therefore it would be impossible to trade the markets ignoring the driving forces , without which , there would be no movements in the prices.
Similar to indianguyinny I advice you to read the thread for some understanding of the basics of trading.
Thank you for your response. I agree with you completely as it is entirely impossible to predict how the market will respond to any news event. I was not meaning to be predictive, but was merely making an observation of a subtle shift I noticed.
Family is well except for my youngest, who had to be fetched from school early today due to illness. Hope your fam is all well.
Hi Gro,
thank you for the uplifting video.
It is wonderful how his handicap, gave him such a powerful mind adjustment. A demonstration of the power the the mind.
If you are still baffled by the strength of the currencies.
Here's the reason.
Effectively the USD had devalued.
This is because of the Heli's decisions to buy up us govt bonds.
And how will the Fed's pay for the purchase.
The ultimate way, Print !
the markets had responded and from here lets see if the response had been adequate. Watch the charts for more clues.
Do you think the Feds actions on buying US securities had anything to do with China's comments the other day. Seems there was some dispute over tariffs and China threaten to pull money.????
trying to find a press release.......
regards,
Hi auxesis,
Truthfully , I don't know.
But the action will dilute the value of China's USD trade surplus holdings.
The Us equity markets will move up to adjust to the usd parity. where strong companies will revalue upwards and weaker ones may hold price without having to drop.
The increase of M1 (money in circulation) will increase and more money is available in the economy by virtue of the multiplier effect. M1 injections is the most liquid method of increasing money in the shortest time. Like injecting drugs right into the blood stream. The impact should be instantaneous.
If inflation holds managable, some growth should be felt by the next quarter. whether this may create jobs will be seen then too. So the indicators next quarter should be watched closely to gauge the impact of this monetary action.
regards
you know something about this:
(sorry my translation)
"Ron Paul bill on audit FED resemble other law that the come forward Bernie Sanders in senate, who is headed hereto, to FED return questions bent at it, where go to 2 billions dollars from government aid, which is thing, in niz Bloomberg News prosecuted FED and require her investigation and explication. Last week namely in Committee for Ways and Means senate guns singular things, when Bernanke arrogantly withheld explain, where go to money from government aid, namely and over repeated questions...
Hi Gro,
The function of the Feds is to monetary policies and money creation (printing). They just creates the money.
When they buy up govt bonds, means that they are lending that created money to the govt. Where and how it will be spent depends on the govt and politics.So I don't know if the feds knows where the money tunnels to. The Us treasury may since their function is to fund govt spending.
I recalled the other day catching some buzz about a proposed tariff that affected China and they responded by stating they would cease the purchase of treasuries. I tried to find a release but none yet. Back of my mind though that the Feds actions may be some type of preventive action for the above, and not necessarily whats being reported.
Doesn't matter just follow the money. Did see where the pressure is on the ECU to follow suit, something to watch.
regards,
political analysis had never been my strength, esp international relations. One day they are blowing each other up and the next blowing each other kisses. My strengths is in flowing the footprints they leave behind.