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  #1  
Old Nov 25, 2007 5:41pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Technical Analysis Fallacy

Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ???????????...etc

If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.

Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ???..etc

Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.

What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.

"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."

Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.

The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.

How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.

Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.

I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.

What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.

I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.

regards

Last edited by fti, Aug 3, 2009 6:45am
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  #4  
Old Nov 25, 2007 8:03pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Thanks TEB63

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEB63 View Post
I think the quote & person is........

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
Abraham Lincoln


teb
Thanks TEB63, for the correction. You are right.
I got my Abra crossed with churchill.
I think I remember now,
His was about perpectual friends, enemies and interest.
Gosh, the horrors for getting old.

much obliged, friend

regards
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  #8  
Old Nov 25, 2007 9:15pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Thanks for support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sergiu View Post
In no event will those indicators provide perfect signals and to try and tweak them until they do is a waste of time. One should take the indicators for what they are and try to exploit the little edge that they provide the trader with. We all want consistent profits yet most fail to be consistent in their approach, because they want their indicators to give them perfect signals.
Thanks vv much for your support to my post.

Having said that, I must highlight a very critical point.
And that is, for us who practise "true to the masters" methodologies.
Indicators have no capacity to be predictive, by virtue that they are derivatives of historical database.
There have been intense arguements in many the "newbie" analyst circles that historical infomation can pridict the future supports and resistence level and lots of orders are placed at those "key" levels.
From my engagements in the markets as marketmaker, FX spot interbank, we actually capitalise on these "sitting duck levels" by sweeping for them, esp the stops zones. I will be discussing on this subject abit later when we come to it.

But for this moment, my point is that I find it rather disturbing that some traders are over crowding their minds with too much indicator reads and neglecting the "feel the trend aspect" of wihich most lag indicators were devised for. Their over dependence on predictive indicator reads, creates a very dangerous mindset for prudent trading.

There has also been a big growth of "Black Box " Systems being sold by so called analyst that promotes and sells the "fallacy" that technical analysis is mostly predictive in nature using certain "secret parameters". I 've seen during my time, that most of them fails over the long run, and it actually damages the outlook to technical studies.

I guess the question at hand is, How can historical data, predict the future? If it could , we'll have no more markets to trade. The fact that people building assumptions into past data and passing that, as mainstream technical analysis, just goes against the grains and foundation , that technical analysis was built upon.

W D Gann, using maths and Astrology could predict the future with accuracy, would you believe that. When he died, even his son John Gann disputed his father's ability to do so.
I'm just using this as an example, you must understand. He hower did use the swing charts , which are geared to trend following more than anything else. The unfortnate thing that he carried his methodology to his garave left us guessing his actual methdology.

There are actually true sciences and mathematics in the most traditional "technical analysis models" and as time passes, I find it distasteful that more and more superstition is creeping in. And more and more artistic engineering is created to mask the fact that the traditional TA models were never predictive at all.

I hope I have acticulated the case clearly.

regards





.

Last edited by fti, Nov 25, 2007 9:27pm Reason: added info
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  #11  
Old Nov 25, 2007 9:43pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi all,

@Qu|cksilver,
Thanks Qu|cksilver for your PM and vouch, I hope my followed up post, have touched on some important points for you.

@leighsww, Thanks for your kind words. Like I said before size doesn't matter. (even naked)
How's your trading, Did the bus you caught get you where you wanted to go?
Dollars seems still soft, so time yourself well.
By the way, I hope your're still runing around the market naked. :-)

@ masterpiecefx

The truth is the market is actually a battlefield. And do not be mistaken that anyone can move it as they pleases. But don't be mistaken that the Banks are there to Screw traders up, Their role is as custodian and moderator(if you like to the activities) Marketmakers (Interbank, not those you may be familiar with) They are liquidity providers helping large corp orders get filled. esp when mkt thins out and orders at at different level staring at each other, So they move around with price shades to try to get the orders to match out. therby providing a service to the corp. community.
To transfer risk from party to party. They move together because they can actually "feel" each other from the way the prices are quoted. How its shading , whethers its tearing, where certain sector are scuttering because they have been hitted by giant corp. You would be suprised at how large some order get. Imagine a customer calling you for a price to deal for 500 million USD on 1 price. What would you do? And for info that's middium cust. Do you know what's the daily transacted volume?

Maybe if you will ponder on this questions ?
What is the market you are actually trading in?
Whos market is it? whos the owner?
Why does it move? What makes it move?
Have you heard of "open market operation"?

We are actually going into the Structure of the Markets.
If you have time, read this link carefully.

http://www.ny.frb.org/education/addpub/usfxm/
also wiki about "Bretton Woods Agreement"

For Indept understanding read this book, I think may be out of print. try library
"Paper Money" by Adam Smith, dell publishing Co copyright by George J W Goodman.1981


regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 25, 2007 10:26pm
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  #18  
Old Nov 25, 2007 10:36pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,
Please reread my last above post edited some additional info.
thanks every body for all the kind words.

@ leighsww
Please be very cautious, in the use of that stuff,
its a shape knife if wrongly used.
esp when naked.:-)
remember "stay with the trend , Its your only friend."

regards

PS: for ppl reading this, i hope you don't take the this the wrong way, she's not really naked, just a figure of speech discribing using charts with minimal or none technical indicators, like in bare charts.

Last edited by fti, Nov 26, 2007 1:06am
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  #20  
Old Nov 25, 2007 11:05pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,
I'm back
the usd's coiling up for something, don't know what?
you guess


What's the norm protocol here, do I start another thread to continue about market structure, or do I just continue from here?


I'jll just continue from here.
probably another time, as the usd is really coiling up, something may happen.

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 26, 2007 1:11am
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  #23  
Old Nov 26, 2007 2:45am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,
tks , will answer soon, now watching EUR/USD flying.
Anuone watching?

regards
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  #28  
Old Nov 26, 2007 9:28am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All

@ Kiwi _trader,
Thank you for your respond.
Sorry that my reply is a bit late , that I had other engagements, and being old and slow on the key board have delayed the respond.

Before i try to throw some light on the points that you have put forth. Let me say that personally, having being a Technical Analyst professionally, I feel much sadden by some of the things I seen, and the directions that the pursuits of modern Technicians have taken. Nevertheless in the guise of advancement and development, things are bound to change, But when basic principals are sidelined , people like myself should come to the fore to direct the way back to basics, as best we can. This is esp so for the benefit of the newer generation of analyst, who may see things from a totally different perspective.

Please do not perceive that I insist that ,there are no other forms of technical analysis classes acceptable. The intent was to highlight that, a lot of the development have moved away from the core.
My comments, they truly represent my earnest opinions and it come from my heart without prejudice. And if you truly feel that I was too harsh , in my statements, then I seek your indulgence and empathy.

1. Leonardo did make public, his studies in his notations which much later, lead to the wide use of the fabonacci principles in Technical Analysis. It was his initial studies made on the the human anatomy, in how the human body extended itself and sub divided into systemic proportions that sparked later findings in the use of the fabonacci and string sequences in their class of studies. These studies may survive today by the newly coined names of "the Golden Sections".

2.Technical Analysis never did excluded the fundamentals from it core of analysis, but made the assumption that all fundamental factors that were market sensitive would have itself present within the data of the price movements, thereby facilitating a complete analysis of all relevant fundamentals. Basically the components of time, price and volume, as inputs for data massaging, At Advanced levels components of volatility and derivatives of the "greeks" were also used.

3.As you have so rightly pointed out, Gambling can be carried out based on a myriad of underlying components as a basis for risk taking. But TA becomes the common denominator.... when its the attitude in the pursuit of greed, rather than a respond to calculated risk, based on technical analysis expertise. eg "Black box" models, breaks and crosses trading.

4. Technical Analysis has its foundations in "after the fact" market data analysis and is used to detect systemic responses of markets. If these are not to be considered as tools as I have suggested, then maybe if you could highlight your suggestions, I would surely be all ears, to learn from you of what classifications they should come under.

The reason why i suggested that they are "statistical tables plotted in graphic form" is because when I was a student of technical analysis in the late 70s, we had to manually tables the necessary components in rows of formulated columns to facilitate manually calculations, to get the required statistics for plotting it on manually drawn charts. Some of us who were better at figures actually worked from memory of the stats, instead of chart plots. It was not until 1981 when I bought my 1st apple 2e computer that I had the computations done on a computer visicalc spreadsheets. I therefore find it difficult to comprehend your suggestion of the non existence of statistical data and tables.

I am extremely glad that, notwithstanding our differences of opinion on issues of basic Technical facts, that we can find synergy in the requirements of underlying attitude to methods, for successful trading.

Please do enquire again, where I have not clearly explained to your satisfaction. I enjoyed pleasant reminisces of the old days, in my jogging of my memory for answers to your enquires.

Thanks Again.

@ Green_David,

Thank You for your kind words.
You seem to be grappling with the market due to your technique being conservative with your Stops within sweep reach.
A remedy can be found in varying your, overnight sizes by taking some profits on your exposure, and using the acquired profits as a buffer, so that your term position may have more leeway to sustain market stop sweeps. Of course when you do this your "at risk" position size would be smaller.

Ponder on this and see if it may improve your position's whipsaw sustainability in the market.
You may remember that I do not advocate stop loss. But as this is a contentious issue that numerous other traders do not agree upon. I will leave that for further discussion when I get to that segment of the discussion. Your patience is appreciated.

regards
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  #33  
Old Nov 26, 2007 8:48pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FXBaby View Post
Well trading market is based on probabilities (as i know). We follow technical indicator to judge a right place of trade(oversold/overbought). Fabonacci or other tool for exit signal and price action or other signal action for enter in a trade.
Many traders in forex trade only basis of history data(charting mathod). Some people looks MA crossover and some looks for fundamental news.

You want to say how we can trade in future using history data. Yes you are true.

Iam newbie on this forum. I have some funny questions. Please answer.
(1) Do banks take intrest in technical analysis ? If yes give me timeframe and technical analysis tools name.
(2) Or they believe in only fundamental analysis.


Iam using priceaction with BB and MACD. I just a child when i compair myself with u. Please reply what am i ask.Iam little confuse.
thanks.
Sorry for poor english. Iam not english.
---------
hi fxbaby,

There are many ways to trade, and for everyone the decision making process is different.
What you have discribed are very mechanical methodology.
It would be the way to go , if you were a machine.

Try to feel the market, ask yourself questions all the time.
You are not carzy if you ask the questions , only if you listen.

Look at the chart, ask yourself,
what didi the market do when it was last at this level, historically?
was this levels significant chart wise?
which direction is the market trending?
try to feel if its try to go up or down?

if you have determined the direction, its most likely to go.
if you use indicators, try to determine the nearest safe levels to sttempt entry,
try the super over bought or oversoldlevels.in you bolinger bands.
fabonnacci levels are supposed to show market at its best equilibrium,
when at the fabo levels, whatch the mkt, is it behaving steady?
MACD are just multiple averages and are lag indicator,
intrendy mkts they widen ,
in letagic mkts they close up,
incongestions they spagattie cross.
don't read too much into that.

after entry watch the mkts.
Is it doing what you thought it should be doing?
are you comfortable with the position, if yes then add to the position.
if not get out, find a different level. and do itagain. and again until you are satisfied with your position.

when you are riding pprofits, take some out at the oversold levels to reenter near the overbought levels , vice versa.
After a few weeks , you should have a better feel of the market, you are trading.

Don't watch too many pairs.
focus on majors,
GBP and EUR should move quite in syn. YEN should behave the reverse.
watch those intermarket relationships, if any is not behaving normally ,
then be aware that something is happening in the fundamental front.
try to find out if there;s any special reason from the news releases.

On the questions you asked

1.yes, most dealers have basic grounding in technical analysis, it differs from one to another.
Most dealers do not deal in time frames, we manage it mark to NOW,
if its going up forever, we'll keep turning long forever.

You must understand that unlike traders, the market keep making the dealers short of usd if usd keeps going up.
This is because customers will keep buying usd from them making them short,
so the dealer will have to go interbank and keep getting his dollars back to stay abreast of the markets.
For dealers, timeframe is of no consequence, it is constantly being managed.
Some dealers uses the averages, mostly just look at price levels.

There are special dealers in special Strategic Arbitrage & trading units that trades the markets like traders,
they manage exposures for the longer term.
Some of them are economist some are technical analyst.
at this section , some more advance instruments are managed, eg, OTC currency options and sythetics.

2.refer above

fxbaby, keeping up with the jones is a very unhealth attitute to have, be yourself.
If you think you are a child compared to me, you are right,
but then you have good health and you have youth, which I have not.

Don't worry about your english, I can understand what you said.
Inferiority complex is not the mark of a good trader,nether is arrogance,
however humility is.

Hope I helped.
I like your avatar.

regards

PS @ green_David refer email on advise.

Last edited by fti, Nov 26, 2007 9:06pm
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  #34  
Old Nov 26, 2007 10:52pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,

A little info for those actively trading.
read
BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
http://www.forexfactory.com/ read calendar
Fed activity sighted.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=57753

looks like the BOJ and the Feds are getting ready to defend the usd, in any eventualities.
this funding exercises, are meant to give mkt lip service,so warning have been issued.
warning that you may see them in the mkts, if the usd drop gets out of control.
be careful, you may be walking into minefields.
looks like usd would still be soft, but watch out for the volitility.
could be a downhill rollercoaster ride for the greenbag.

who died , why's it so quite in the mkts?

regards
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  #36  
Old Nov 26, 2007 11:35pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi suntrader,

Thank you.
I stand corrected.

much obliged for your help.(sharp)

I seek your indulgence for being old, fat fingured, and slow typer with bad spelling.

Mkts extremely quite today?

regards
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  #38  
Old Nov 27, 2007 12:50am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi leighsww,

Glad you're back.
I see that you've read the links,
did you get a chace to search out Paper Money?
iTs a very good read for understanding the mkts.

If you read the Feds info, you would basically understand how they think.
No one answer the questions, so I guess no one wants to go into market structure.

regards
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  #40  
Old Nov 27, 2007 1:16am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default MARKET Structure

Hi All,
ok, leighsww, here goes

About market strucuture.
You see the brokers are not all bad people out to get everyone. They provide a service of creating a replica model of the interbank mkts for the consumption of the small traders at large.
Of course their motivation to do so is profits but nevertheless they provide a service.

At the very top of the battlefield command is the Feds. The are the owners of the market. Whatever you may trade its normmally against the USD. (even the crosses.) So in perspective you will always be walking into their radar.

They have this big chief, brainspan (used to be the cigar chewing...paul )who have a whole squad of ppl crunching numbers to determine their position and whether there're things they could do to improve their position.

then down the food chain there's the Other Central banks having their radar on their respective currencies.

The hands and legs of the feds are the CB dealers, who's resposibilities are to police the market place,
making sure that its behaving itself. Its chief responsibility is to acertain that there's no riots in the market.
So long as things are peaceful, they leave everybody alone to do their thing.

then just under them is the tier ! bank dealers. These dealers are normally marketmakers to the interbank mkt, and have very large daylight limits and risk parameters to work within. They are also the eyes for the CB dealers, as most large customers go thru them to deal. So they can see who's buying or selling dlrs.If there are irregularities where by some large customers comes into the mkts to buy or sell dlrs the CB dealers are put in the know and will be on standby to see if markets may be disturbed.

Then under teir 1 banks will be tier 2 banks, and tier 3 banks, they function as the lines of distribution. If as in the eg above, alarge corp comes selling dlr and the CB dealers do not intervene, then the tier ! banks will start selling the dollar down to tier 2 banks in smaller packages, and tier two banks will like wise start selling to tier 3 banks in smaller packages. In 20 to 30 mins that process who fizz out and most dealers would be short of dollars. to a certain extent.

Please be aware that I am talking of a one off scenerio, where there is only one customer in the whole wide world.

watch it the mkts moving

Last edited by fti, Nov 27, 2007 1:40am
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  #46  
Old Nov 27, 2007 9:47pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,

@ Leighsww,

i think you're right,was it 2006 they change the guards?
Goota catch up on the mkt agin.lol
I guess an apology to the chair is in order.

Thanks for the info, much obliged.:-)

@ Green_David
Don't think that way.
Think this way.
With this new devellopments, the volitility and wid swings should become more pronounced.
To the nimble , it'll present more opportunities.
To the rigid, the swings may pose a nusance and increase sufferings.
One things for sure, markets gonna get more intense and fast.


@ belekas, Mr demark,
Hi, thanks

@Zoran,
In answer to your question,
To me the most important indicator is price.
The market's sigma, which is the speed of move.
The Vega, which indicade the volitility factor in its trend and the time it consumes in it push.
You can determine all this from bare bar or candle charts.

the other indicator is true average,
with that you can determine if the volitility is out of line for your risk tenure,
you can best understand this by studying the original Dow theory.
Unfortunately there're many mutations of the Dow theory.
And those that are being used by conventional chartist today differs from my cup of tea.
I think you may get a good grounding of that from the book by R.Edwards/J. Magee.
I cannot remember the title of the book, but I can check for you when I return to Sg probably middle jan 2008. pls remind me.

the other improtant, read, is the market form.

I try to recognise the compounded formatioms in the bar charts.
A good reference to forms study wasdone by a researcher, by the name of John R.Hill,
I'm not sure if his studys are available to the masses.
They read compound chart formations.
An understanding of Hip and Lop patterns is foundational requirement.

A complimentary methodology is by complex candle chart formations.
I find the books (in english) on this too elementary.
I used to have an understudy who had a copy of the "secret" readings by rice traders in nihongo.
Unfortunately I've no contact with him for a long time since and my development on that has stalled.

I must stress, "never ever play god to the markets."
always stay in the "dance", feeling its moods and tempo,
using technical accrument to read the dance.
Implementing damage control when out of step.
That's actually money management.(another time)
Many analyst, behaves like fortune tellers, that is wrong.

All an analyst can master, is the art of dancing along with the market,
and recognising its behaviour as the dance progresses.
It is an on going process, not one read and you khow all, that cannot happen.
The markets are alive.

In a nutshell, There are other components necessary, other than technical analysis skills,
mindset, money moneymanagement are equaliy critical.

Thank you every one for your indulgence.
I am very tired, danced with the market yesterday the whole day and night,
what a ball.
So if you have questions just post them here and I'll get back to it after a good rest.

regards
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  #51  
Old Nov 28, 2007 4:39am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,

@ JodyOng

In a way you are right, the core function of dealkers is to manage market risk , during their operational time zone.
Their over night activety is normally about one tenth of their normal risk appitite.
It's like inverse of the male ego, which is ten time bigger at night to its daylight.:-)

Sorry forgot I was speaking to a lady. :-O

In terms of their trading, you may have the impression that
they fly by the seat of their pants,
but in reslity, it is so intenerlised that the decision process are so automated.
If you remember the analogy I gave earlier, about driving a car.
That's how well drilled they are, that risk managing becomes a reflex action.
You may percieve that it's gut feel, but there's a lot more to it than gut.

@ Maseyw

Thank you for your kind words.
I normally keep the daily OHLC bar charts visable for
the EUR, cable, yen.(naked, term borrowed from leighsww)
chf is a bit of a wild lady, so i don't look at her much.
then I have the the short charts of the market I am actively trading.
normally sighting the 5min candles ,15min candles
and I keep hourly candles at the back of the screen just in case
the short charts becomes choppy then I refer to the hourly for direction.
On short charts, I have the hourly sma plotted to measure volitility.
I tend not to put studies on charts to distract proper reading of market form.
if the lady have long, trendy legs, I normally put the 15mins charts to the back as well,
so as not to clutter the screen.

@ opte999
Thank you for your kind words.
Point and figuring is a very nice way to plot charts , if you are a long term trend rider.
As this technique,neglates time as a charting component it cannot read form.
If you are not trading close to market pulse,
P&F would help you filter out the counterswing "noise".
The Achillies heel of this charting method is that most traders
choses the reversal boxes sizes to compliment their financial capacity
and sometime to their risk appitite, instead of the markets volitility.
Being a rigid form of trend trailler, the choice of the reversal boxes is critical
and requires much trial and error to get it right.
This method of charting is most suited for traders who
are long term trend riders who have difficulty with position discipline.


On your question about ATR,
Firstly I go on record to say that I have very high esteem for Curtis Faith
and most of Richard's turtles with the exception of the renegade.

The ATR introduced by W.Wilders is an important component
for determining market's volitility. This is a powerful tool for system styled traders.
But to use it as a decision tool, tends to create rigid mindset in decision making.
Having said that, I myself do use it in a different way,
In that it is visually indentfiable from bare bars in volitility reads as I have mentioned.

W. Wilders and Jake Bernstein were my trainers in 1980, I believe he has moved on,
since the publication of his findings, to a more nimble technique.
The new style of trading , if I am not mistaken is still classified until this day.

Yes, you are correct. the R.Edwards/J. Magee. Dow Theory book is titled
"Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"

Yes, I think John Hills research papers was titled "Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts".
Is it being published? I ask because mine is in research paper format.

Hip & Lop patterns was Wilders initial research studies,
if you search his writings you should find it.
I am sorry that I am not at liberty to publish his writings as it is copyrighted.

The two Nison's books can be used as an introduction to basic candlecharts.
The rice manual which I had the opportunity to view is of much advance levels of interpretation of the compound formations.
In the words of my understudy who taught me,
" individual candle readings have insignificane value compared to the compound reads."
I am sorry that I cannot be of much help in the interpretations
because my education was stalled when he returned to Japan.
There is however another way to use candle charts, introduced in the mid 80's ,
I believe Morris called it "Power candles"
You may like to research on that.

Ah, I see you like the dancing analogy better.
It is hard for me to shake the war analogy due to my training
in the disciplines and money management style adapted from Sun Zi Bing Fa.
which is the core of my dealing style. If I had been distasteful, I apologise.

Thank you, friend for helping. You must be quite experienced.
Quoting Sun Zi, and with the above read,
I would suspect that you are Technical Analyst yourself.
Do share some knowledge with us, where suits.

regards

PS: @ Green_David,
You may be withnessing the power of CB in the markets, be cautious

regards
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  #52  
Old Nov 28, 2007 5:00am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Desiderata

Desiderata

Go placidly amid the noise & haste,
And remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly & clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant;
They too have their story.

Avoid loud & aggressive persons,
they are vexations to the spirit.
If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain & bitter;
For always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans.
Keep interested in your own career, however humble;
it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business affairs;
For the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you to what virtue there is;
Many people strive for high ideals; & everywhere is full of heroism.

Be yourself.
Especially, do not feign affection.
Neither be cynical about love;
For in the face of all aridity & disenchantment, it is perennial as the grass.
Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.

Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune.
But do not distress yourself with imaginings.
Many fears are born of fatigue & loneliness.
Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself.
You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars;
You have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be,
and whatever your labors and aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace with your soul.
With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world.
Be careful. Strive to be happy.
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  #59  
Old Nov 28, 2007 10:10pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,

@ Maseyw,
Thank you for your patience,

"...So you would use the daily charts for trend and candle formations to indicate possible changes in movement. Do you use the hourly similarly? ..."

Yes I use Daily Chart studies to indicate trend,
I use short charts to indicate form.

Ponder this,
On the daily EUR/USD now we see possible topping formation, correct.

We may be right, So tell me where is it going?Should be Down, right?

When will we know if it is going down?
What if on the short charts, its going up?
So do we still want to go short?
So when should we go short?
When the short chart shows you that it topping out, right?

So if this market continues to go up. Then You miss the bus ( borrowed from leighsww) ,right?
You missed the bus going north, why?
because you were at the bus stand waiting for the south bound bus, right?

Thats why I, said.
Bull makes money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.

You see, when bulls are making money, Bears are not.
When bears are making money bulls cannot.
But the one whos trying to catch both buses will sooner be dead. Crossing the road from one bus stand to another,
Because he could be at the north stand when the south bus comes, or the south stand when the north bus comes.
or mostly in th middle of the road, when both bus comes.

Do I make any sense?

For dealers, its a different game, because when markets are going up in a BEAR market, customers keep making them short,
their book keeps getting bigger short, but their average cost of being short keeps going up.
all they have to do is to wait for the trend to enforce and
when the market returns to the point where the buying started ,
he would make nearly the amount of money that made him short in the first place.

For this to happen, he has to have a book big enough to accommadate the customer base.
AND as the market swings back towards the start point, he has to ascertain that his book of shorts, be kept constant.
This is because on the way down the customers will be making him long.
So by constantly covering back to back on the way down he maintains his book short.
So for the dealer, as long as he maintains his poise in the direction of the markets major trend,
he will always make "scalp money", guanranteed.

His modus operandi, is to "duck and move quickly"
so as to have a better average on the up swing towards stops to maximise his shorting near the top of the swing.
This scenerio is most effective if there are stop near levels where he las a large order to sell,
where he can help the customer sell OB and "kill the sitting duck stops" in the same blow.
Another senerio is where by the heavy selling is CB levels or specific sell zones,
where many teir 1 are ready to pounch on the buyers.
You must understand that only tier 1 and some big tier 2 will have this advantage.

This is the reason, why you have rubber band snap backs in the direction of trend directions,
and slow puffy moves counter trend.
Am I making any sense to anyone here?

So we use daily trend as the direction to build book size and short charts to make market for retraces.
Do discuss this on this trread, no questions are silly, just discuss until it becomes clear.
Don't understand !, argue until you understand.
Fight if you must, I will not complain.

YOU MUST GET THE CONCEPT OF MARKET STRUCTURE RIGHT TO UNDERSTAND THE CHARTS.

I didn't wnat to get into this first, but since it is being asked here we go.
I wanted to get across the basic foundations right first,
cos if your foundation is slopy you will get a slopy structure built on it.
not so unlike building a house.
Nevertheless this is also the advance level of foundation and is an acceptable direction togo.

regards

PS: Maseyw and Zoran 's other questions, I will answer in another post.
Leighsww, sorry MM gotta come later. Foundation first, ok.

thanks ppl for the effort to learn.
regards.
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  #60  
Old Nov 28, 2007 11:13pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

A little get to know me as we go along.

One thing you will not be getting from me is, this crosses that and go buy or go sell, or
this is overbought/oversold wait for divergence then go do this or that. Or do this and you will make millions.
If thats what you are looking for, then sorry you're on the wrong bus. (again borrowed from leighsww, fine naked lady if I may add.)

To understand me, picture this,
I have two brains.
My bicameral mind is fast like lighting, due to training.
My other mind is a little boy trying to cope with the bicameral mind.
Half the time it keep asking the bicameral mind,
What did you just said a moment ago.? What was your instructions again?
could we replay that segment pls?
And he gets the, "shit i forgot, I am on something else already, Bloody pay attention."
And this goes on day in and day out between them.

My body is under the charge of the little boy mind,
it works like an apple 2e living in the world of super computers.
"Burnt the candle both ends" and all worn out.
The bionics are all rusty.
Can't type fast, got "fat fingers".
can't speak well, normally in pieces,
cos' the little boy lost some parts of the message which the bicam mind passed down.

apart from that, most parts are old and rusty,
work for a while, gotta rest, otherwise overheat and fail.
If you asked a tech specialist, probably recommend that this piece of machinery be scraped.

But the bicam mind, being the optimist it is, thinks the system can still cope,
if we allow the system to accept its ineffencies, it should get by.
It lives on the motto, "Live every moment as if it was your last"
and one day, this would be true.
For now "be the best you can be"

Please do not imagine and old and sickly man.
I am not young and vibrant, but far for old and sickly.

With this out of the way, lets get on with it.
If I forgot, remind me.
If I misquoted, correct me
If I don't make sense, ask again.
If I am wrong, teach me.
If I err, forgive me.
But most important , don't sit there staring at me.

regards

PS: before I forget.
The emotional control.

When I trade. I listen to music. all sorts.but the one that, gives me oum, is my setup of
in sequence, recently
Enya "May it be",
Charlotte Church & Josh Groban "The Prayer",
Joan Sutherland & Jane Berbie "The flower Duet, Lakme",
Josh Groban "You raised me up" & "To where you are".
Hope it doesn't make RIAA richer.
Makes serene feel, for me. I wonder if it can do the same for you.

When I wheeling & dealing, when much younger, normally had pissed drunk sessions a lot, \
I guess you know, how brokers throw liquor at dealers, on drink outs.
Walk back next day to dealing room, still a little sober, tend to read trends better.
Don't know why, for me it works. You may like to try that.
I know its naughty influence, but it somehow works, don't know why, but it does.
So before I teach anymore "unbecoming influences, I stop there.
Just thought that I should iiform you.

regards

PSS: Plus I am a very very heavy smoker, thats the one that "ill probably switch off my lights.

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 29, 2007 12:27am
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  #65  
Old Nov 29, 2007 2:26am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ sovo1970,

Thank you for your kind words.
You have Leighsww to thank though,
cos' the original analogy was about chasing skirts.
Since she went naked waiting for buses, it gave me the inspiration on this analogy.
Gosh, things a nsked woman can do !!!.

@ unforseen,
Right on, couldn't have said it better myself.
now that I been on the wagon.
I try to meditate, but cos of my nature, the music does wonders too. esp Lakme theme.

@ Green_David
Normally I want to start with a blankmind,
but when I have over-nights, I would continue from there.
Don't thinmk its a walk in the park, sometimes esp when markets get confused, it can get very scary.
esp whrn the book gets very large. and it keeps snowballing on you.

When I was a young dealer, they used to comment that I had balls of steel.
But mostly after the trades, I feel very balls broken ,
and used to recover by intense wiskey sessions.
If you ever sat with positions where your hand are shaking and you mind have to hold steady and steadfast ,
then maybe you may understand.

For new traders you may be going to the little boys room more often than necessary.
I have had experiences where new dealers, vomitted on the desk before.
I am the type of trainer that throws them into the deep ends.
Ultimately their books are mine, so if they get into trouble, I have to take over.

The trick is to hold very steadfast to the position allowing the snowball build on you,
the maxim is to be able to take the punches first,
once the rubber band swings back, whack them like theres no tomorrow,
within your capacity and keep taking profits along the way untill the frenzy slows off
then square down for the next attack.
Important thing is to know your limits, if you have been snooked out of step,
once you you get the chance bail out, log stock and barrel.
Try not to turn, if you do, you may become a pig.

Now if anyone goes bankrupt doing this don't take it out on me.
I m just trying to tell you how its done. Like the WWF ppl say" don't try this at home".
We train and train to be able to reflex like that and to hold with our limitations.
Remember its not easy.
Tailor it for yourself within your risk appitite and limits.
Don't kill yourself over it. Never risk more than10% of net worth on any battle.

Stop loss are for suckers (oops sitting ducks)
Sure it gives you peace of mind , thats because you're not watching after your babies,
but at what price?
Dance the dance.
If you cannot take the heat, stay out of the kitchen,
If there's a problem. Chances is either over leverage or over trading, or undercapitalise.
These mkts you are trading in, are killing fields,
and there's lots of calm on the surface,
in the undercurrents, theres lots of killing going on.
And I kid you not.

Don't for one moment hink that, just because you learned something fromme.
You can go out with your guns blazing.
There's lots more than meets the eyes. So be cautious.
Ultimately at the end of the day, its all YOU.

If your plan is to piranya bits and pieces from the market.
Remember, that Hansel and Gretel got themselves in a cage by picking uo bread crumps.
If you are picking up crumps, try not to take on the entire market swings.

Next post, I may introduce a little chinese story to you.

regards

PS: That's one of the reasons, I don't advocate treating brokers to harshly.
Esp over a few pips sort of issues, because sometimes,
these guys also go to hell and back just to earn a littke bro.
Sometimes they have to sell their soul for your business.

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 29, 2007 4:43am
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  #67  
Old Nov 29, 2007 4:51am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi semar,

When I was dealing, my threshold of pain was 500mio usd daylight
my loss trashold was 10 mio 1 day.
my scope of time was 30 minutes.
I used 5 min charts as I have mentioned
overnight positions had no loss threshold.
allowed over nights lines 50mio
actual posiyions on average 5 to 20 mio
depending on the feel and the profits already in the book.

For individual traders, I think you will have to do you own maths,
its different from one to another. When I trade for myself. I would go to 10 cts if I have to.
better make 10cts thanto lose 10 cts.
hopt this helps.

regards

PS
@ Green_David
About trends, don't think, ask her.
if she don't tell you, wait
be patient, it will show, it's not that she won't tell you.
She hints and hints , but if you don't get it
when she gets angry, she'll tell you straight, if you can catch it fine.
sometimes she don't wanna dance, she may jjust want a fling her and there,so wait.
otherwise, there are many fishes in the sea.

At tier 1 I see flow, I check whats my blotter direction,
what didi big orders do, how often they are hitting me.
where are the ducks, how large are they piling.
But as trader you cannot see flow, so watch the pips move, it should tell you.

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 29, 2007 5:13am
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  #69  
Old Nov 29, 2007 6:16am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Maseyw,

regarding trends,
trends mean different things to different people.

the accepted defination of a trend is a persistent direction of move,
on an up trend the highs get higher and low stays higher,
conversely a down trend, when the low gets lower and the high stays lower.

no trends move in a straight line advance or decline.
within any major trend, there are minor trends, then there are intraday trend, hourly trends and so forth.
its your choice to decide which is within your scope to cope with.

For overnight positions, its only prudent to stay with the major trend, cos' no one knows when it will kick in.
for managed daylight you should always trade the dance.
a bad position in the 5 min plays can be made good in the hourly plays, and the latter can be made in 5 Hrsly and so forth.
It depends on your own stamina to cope.
Be aware that the overnight positions are only a fraction of the daylight management.

In your example we have been in daily uptrend mode, but I did highlighted that the CB was watching and preparing.
So even though it we are in a Eur uptrend , youmust be aware of the the players, esp CB.
If you look at your daily chart , you had 3 days warning of letargy and a final warning yesterday. Today a reversal is already in progress.
So during these times either you take bigger risk to go reversal or
just wait for clearer signs.
or trade the daylight trend.

moreover there are times where there are no trends.
or trends are slowing down, we call that topping or bottoming action.
If you trade trends only, do not feel that you have to have a position.
There are times when no position is a position.
If you traded trends only, probably 70% of the time you would be aside.

When we manage daylight trading, profits attained from that activity is normally used to enhance the cost of the at risk position.
Thats why I do not place stop loss, and by virtue of the overnight being only a fraction of daylight trading.
the Cost of the overnight is normally way off the charts.

regards
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  #72  
Old Nov 29, 2007 7:18am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi semar,

Like I said no question is silly. don't worry.

About daylight,
Being tier 1, my dealing room operates round the clock.
I had 3 shift of dealers,
the number of dealers are biggest on sg time.
the number of dealers are smaller on london
During london morning , both my sg dealers and london dealer team are operational
By london afternoon, up to Ny cross over whats left is the london shift.
by NY afternoon , only 1 spot dealer is in and my futures dealers are in the room , as CME take over NY afternoon dealing and most interbank activity slows to a crawl. then Wellington (twinlight zone)and back to Sg.

So when I say daylight, I mean each teams daylight, but the dealers have bigger lines during Sg daylight, due to seniority compared to the graveyard shift dealers. At all times I am on standby so my daylight is 24 hrs, esp during release of figs nights. I have a choice for selecting which sector I am active on. For your purpose you should consider when you are babvsitting , daylight.

Hope this clears it for you.

regards

Ps: for the guys that think that this USD had reversed, Word of caution, Turning only in progress, watch out for economic figs soon , refer calander!

Last edited by fti, Nov 29, 2007 8:29am
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  #75  
Old Nov 29, 2007 9:17am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ Zoran,
I will not go into details of how it is done, As it is dealers bread & butter issue.
Just know that that there are ways of moving price, where he can make things happen.
Just understand that he is making the interbank market and it is his market.
If his book is threatened , there are ways he can neutralise the danger.
I hope you understand the sensitivities.

@ Green_David

I believe you already know the story.

@ALL
One thing here, that makes me uneasy. This is not classroom.
Why do you all, seldom talk to each other?
Is there something I should know?
Could someone email me about it?

regards
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  #89  
Old Nov 29, 2007 9:15pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ natejax

You are probably in the know, as far as technical analysis concept is concerned, if you are able to visualise strategies.

regards


@ALL

You see, the strategies that will work for you would be the ones that you conceive in your mind,
cos, you know yourself best.
But sometimes greed may cause you to try to be something you're unconfortable to be. (keeping up with the Jones)
That's when the problems arises.
You should check you risk appitite. and you must be hornest to yourself about it.
Never over-trade or allow yourself to be over-exposed beyond your capacity.
If you already, have a couple of million, having more millions , ain't gonna change you life style too much.
So don't bungie just for the sake of it.

If you overdo it, there will the times of market movement, where the moves can create a confused trader, this is due to fear.
When that happens greed, fear and hope will be your worst enemy, not the market.

At the bank , dealers are trained in the deep end,
as most normal people are not used to the kind of risk (as well as the style) that the bank is exposed to daily.
That's why they are thrown into the deep end for them to orientate and adapt to the enviroment.

For traders, and dealers that begin to trade for themselves, debreifing is necessary.
If I try to trade with the risk attitude that I had when I was at the bank, I will definately get into a financial hole.
Although the profitable modus operandi is in place readjustment of money management is critical for success.

Simple is good, I am a subscriber to the KISS. ( Keep it strong & simple.)
I cannot see any trader or dealer, can profitabily make trade decision when there are too many uneccessary studies to content with.
Traders have to focus on basic market moving fundamentals and a technical analytics,
to time the execution of a preplanned viable money managed strategy.
Too much of either just gets in the way and become distractions.
Staying light weighted and nimble is key.

A soldier may be well trained and strong, but can he carry a gerenade launcher as well as his M16,
a stand machine gun, a tank buster, a flame thrower, a long sword,a scout knife, a tent, sufficient F&B,
and sufficient ammo into a running battle.
However, good he may be, he would be too bogged down to function effectively, eventually leading to his demise.
Similarly a trader should not bog down his mind with too much unneccessaries to paralyse himself.
So just use whats working for you and throw away all the rest of the junk.

Now, do not be mistaken that I say that you should stop learning.
It is for knowledge and insight.
Learning is a life-time process, but a successful trader would instinctive know
if a new technique can fit in to his exixting profitable MO.
For me any MO that disturbs my foundational basics in technical analysis
or deprives my ability to think and rationise my position, red flags it.

Leigh is such a thoughtful and unassuming lady, hugs.

@ dopey,
Sorry I have not read J. Hill's "The Ultimate Trading Guide".
therefore cannot comment about it, When you do read it , give us a review, won't you.

@ Zoran

Thanks for your kind words.
I find that its in reading trader's responses that I can gauge, if I had articulated my message clearly.
Also its from there that I would be able to measure traders misinterpretations, if any
This is a forum, and I came onboard to present my views and opnions, as well as to research some info.
Seems I have turned Trading guru, instead. lol
Nevertheless I hope that my insights, can contribute to your development & profitability, as traders.
Do speak to each other, I insist.

@ Green_David,

Ah, I see that you may have overcome.
Great to hear of your success.
Edwin's "Reminiscences of the Stock Operator" is a traders classics.
I am glad that its giving you insights.
go..dancer go!!

@ mrjtdude
I think you have misunderstood, reread carefully, maybe you will find new insights.

@ opie999
Thanks, helping mrjtdude understand is a noble gesture.

@ masterpiecefx
Just to add on your opinion.
Not all Fundamentals are reflected in the prices, some fundamentals affect the markets in the short tenure some in the longer.
Ultimately all important fundamentals will work their way into the charts.
there are fundamentals that are maekrt moving and
there are those that could have already worked itself into the price, and are therefore discounted.

The important fundamentals for the forex are basically, world events and CB economics (fiscal & monetary policies)
It is quite impossible to sieve thru all that can or will happen on that front,
and the subjectivity of the issues are contentions for extended debate.
Staying on foundational market structure, is a good way to keep abreast its developments and effects.

Charting may be a definative method to sieve thru the actual market moving fundamentals.
Nevertheless it has its short comings that, it is still a lagger.
Understand that the charts are historical footprints of the market,
therefore they can hardly be predictive, without imposing on it assumptions.
AND i am one who is strongly against, imposing assumptions on my charts,
for me thats THE FALLACY, i mentioned in the title of this thread.

I much prefer to flow with it than to read things into it.
For all that I have posted, I hope this point comes across crystally clear.
Nevertheless, there are Technical Analyst who subscribe to predictive analyst,
I call them System Analyst instead.
And I have seen of the things that happens to rigid methodology and mindset, to know better.
For me I , I hold close to my heart, the Basics of Technical Analysis and Charting.

@ opie999
Yes, thats the Morris.
I am not much into his power candles, cos he incorporeate volume into his candles,
the Structure of the Forex markets, do not allow me that liberty.

I have not read his newer book, “Candlestick Charting Explained”
maybe I should update myself.
Yeah !, Learn from "Top Gun Academy", then fly the "Blue Angels."
That 'll be the day. Dream on, not in my state.
Oops, my ppl non-currency for 30 years already. gotta go DCA and check status.
Would you know which version of that he's on? I don't prefer Alfas, Betas are ok, but Public release is better.
Just jesting, LOL.

@ Leighsww,
Ahh..THE lady.
No , Leigh, don't take it that way and "put me on the table."
Like I said You can't learn trading by reading a book.
and You won't learn how to dance unless you get on the floor and boogie.
So start dancing and lead each other, find your own niche and have a ball.

I give you the sketch and you fill in the colours, make it your own painting.
Then sketch for others to learn how to paint.

You see for me, this is an adjustment too.
I have to adjust from being a trading machine to be a normal person again.

Nah, don't think we"ll be going to the moon.
If God had wanted ne to go there , I would have been born with the live support to do that. LOL
Howling to it? maybe. LOL

Thanks for the concern and yes "mommy" , health is wealth.

@ shauny,
Thanks for your kind words.

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 29, 2007 10:01pm
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  #90  
Old Nov 29, 2007 9:33pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default A Lesson about Human Nature.

Here is a Lesson my Dad thought me while I was young.
He's the big one in the avatar, I am the little one with the cowboy hat.
He was my mentor and he taught me alot about life while growing up.
He's no longer with us, gone home for some time already.
Do guard that this should happen to you, in your trading and your life.

A Lesson about Human Nature.
The Turtle and the Scorpion.
------------------------------------------------------------

Once upon a time, LONG LONG ago in China
There was this scorpion, who wanted to cross a river.
Since he could not swim, he waited along the river banks for someone who could.
Along came a turtle, and the scorpion promptly asked if the turtle would give him a ride across.

The turtle quickly replied, NO, NO, NO.
Why? The scorpion asked.
The trutle replied, because you will sting me while I am carrying you across.
The scorpion replied, If I did that, then we would both drown
and What would I benefit from that? he asked.

Accepting the scorpions reasoning, the turtle agreed to give the scorpion a ride across.
While half way across the river, as the waters became choppy.
and the ride became rough, the scorpion stung the turtle.
And as the turtle was drowning, he asked the scorpion why he did it.
Now they will both drown.

The scorpion replied,
I am so very sorry, I couldn't help myself from doing it.
You see, ITS MY NATURE,

---END---

regards

PS:Lets see if we can get the juices flowing,
No, up there.
For all you Analyst.
In one word, can you summarise the story in the context of trading?

regards

Last edited by fti, Nov 30, 2007 1:03pm
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  #92  
Old Nov 30, 2007 12:25am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi. ALL,

@ Green_David,
In regards, to your dance.

I disected the info you provided.
came up with afew questions.

1. I understand from your pervious postings
that you have multi accounts now for different time frames.
So I presume that this is the overhight accout your are presenting. right?

2. Being overnight I remembered that you metioned that
you shall not be putting stop losses, right?
So are you carrying profits attained from you daylight activities to
average out your cost or are u leaving the accounts as treated as separate?
and the profits you have attained , are you withdrawing it from your accourt to form a separate nesting?

3. Since you are not baby-sitting your overnight account.
do you have any bells and whistles to alert you in the eventuality of counter moves?
I notice that you presented the short chart to discribe your overnight position,
do you look for evidence of probabilities in the daily chart?

Don't answer this question as they are rather personal,
just explore it within yourself and see if you have the bases covered.

@ ALL
Couldn't help it but just wanted to put on display this for you all to appreciate. You will find many such cases in your own charts.

DUCKS.JPG

@ Leighsww,

Thanks you for your kind words.
I guess a good spanking should be the order of the day, sis lol
Would be googd for the blood flow, lol
warm regards to your hubby.

forgot to give me a summary word, to my question, huh.

regards
Attached Images
 
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  #95  
Old Nov 30, 2007 1:45am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Leighsww,

Thanks for the answer.
Sorry , my bad, for always edting and adding to my previous post.
I'll try to stop that. I thought that ppl would reread the post for clearer understanding.

We'll wait for more response before I Give out the prize, ok, lol
Just a tip for those who may feel hesitant to respond,
there are no right or wrong answers.
But I will explain about it.

OK Leighsww,

The purpose of reposting David's chart, was to highlight market sweeps.
Full focus was placed on the 5 mins as that was the medium of analysis.
I was just trying to show how an interbank dealer would capitalise on the sweeps,
as you can view on the charts.
Remember that at every level some customer would be hiting him, My highlighted focus
was on sclaping traders , trying to capitalise on breakout. They would normally use stop orders to ease their having to baby sit too closely. These scalpers, normally end up being duck kill most of the time.

hope it clears.

regards.

PS : by the way did you get to read my edit regarding the emotions asist about the music
I listen to in post 60. Because no one said or asked anything.

Actually am I going too fast for some of you?
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  #97  
Old Nov 30, 2007 2:06am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi fiveshorts.

Thanks thats the one, as opie999 also pointed out earlier.

Enjoy it.

regards
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  #135  
Old Dec 2, 2007 6:02pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All

Moderators, Please removed Desiderata post No 52.
The reason is because it seems Desiderata may still be copyrighted.

If you don't know Desiderata and need to read it.
You may like to google it.

Funny, but is seems to me that with the upgrade, our rights to edit posting is removed, is this true?.....???

regards
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  #139  
Old Dec 2, 2007 9:20pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Oldman Story

Hi ALL,

Since Leighsww is cheerleading for me ( keeping this thread very lively )with running around naked and doing cartwheels and flying somersaults, I thought that I should do my part and have a go on the exercise as well.

For the record, I met Leighsww, on this forum in someone elses thread.
I was banned for a while for carrying their thread OT.
Leighsww contacted me to give me a backup of my postings and I got to know her better. She tried very persistantly to try to get me to start a thread at FF, as she thinks I can help some of the new traders, who may be seeking to learn about the markets.
I believe that she also felt that she would enhance her understanding, on what little that I tried to highlight to her. So here I am for a little time.

I see Leighsww, as a classy lady, with a big, kind and chilvarious heart.
A standup type of person with artistic and analytical accrument.

Thanks Leighsww.
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  #140  
Old Dec 2, 2007 9:29pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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cont.

Leighsww, Please reread from my earlier postings
"....no trends move in a straight line advance or decline.
within any major trend, there are minor trends, then there are intraday trend, hourly trends and so forth.
its your choice to decide which is within your scope to cope with.
For overnight positions, its only prudent to stay with the major trend, cos' no one knows when it will kick in.
for managed daylight you should always trade the dance.
a bad position in the 5 min plays can be made good in the hourly plays, and the latter can be made in 5 Hrsly and so forth.
It depends on your own stamina to cope.
Be aware that the overnight positions are only a fraction of the daylight management...."

For some of you, your education is still in progress.
Therefore I will only explain to you, why I do somethings the way its being done, once the lesson is complete. Therefore I shall not be going into certain subjects which have been highlighted, until it is appropriate.
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  #142  
Old Dec 2, 2007 9:46pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

cont.

@ scotta,
I can understand what you are relating. But ponder this,
the fact that you walked into the bettlefield, already puts you in the line of fire.
Although you should impliment, all possible safety protocols,
you should be clear, as to what extent those protocol are real.
Safety is paramount, but when safety msy be counter-productive, then you must reaccess.

@ ALL,
it is my observation that some of you do not read very well, or it could be that I have not articulated clealy to be crystally coherent.
or some of you may be reading too casually.
Whatever the cause, I am sadden, that some very critical points I have made is camouflaged from your understanding. It would suit for you to discuss amongst yourselfs to uncover them.

Another thingy that I would like to highlight to you is that we have moved into Dec.
Dec for dealers is the book closing month.
Most dealers who have made the budget for the year, would be easing off. ( honeymoon month , if you like), therefore expect thinner markets, with pronounced swings due to illiquidity.

Also watch out for the Feds,
no not the FBI, the federal Reserve Board and other CBs. LOL

Last edited by fti, Dec 2, 2007 10:30pm
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  #143  
Old Dec 2, 2007 9:48pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

@ Green_David,
I noticed some issues,namly,

1.Please check your, over-eagerness for battle. although you may not be wrong , that you could time your general expectations, you must not be too confident that, what you read from the charts, MUST happen.

2. Your sighting of the weakness you mention, is derived from the short charts.
Do you have strong reasons for leaving your baby unattended, as there is no evidence of the strong continuation?
Moreover you are carrying your baby over the weekends, while alot of CB talk was expected.
Did you hear about the possible Fed interest rates policy update over the weekend?

3. Did you check the daily chart, to ask it what kind of zone you were trading into?

4. As you mentioned, you had multiple opportunities to have come out of this trade, with minimal damage. yes?

Here's ANOTHER Story.
The Oldman Story.(Another River Story)

Once upon a time, long long ago in China. ( I made this up, not the story )
There was this old and pious man.

Unfortunately for him, the region he was staying got flooded babdly.
Just like his neigbours, the river was rising into his house.
So He made his way up onto the roof of his house.
The water kept rising until , the only thing visible on the ground was the roof of the houses.
Being the pious man he was, he started to pray.

Dear God, Our father in heaven,
Blessed be your name,
Give me this day my salvation,
Forgive me of my sins, I forgive all who sinned me.
Lead me not into temptations, Deliver me from evil,
esp this waters who's trying to swallow me.
For yours is the power , the glory and the kingdom.
Amen

Then he waited., sitting on his rooftop.
Along came a sampan, the people on the sampan urged for the old man,
to come onboard to be taken to safe grounds.
He replied, its alright, you people go along.
God will save me.
The people hearing that, left for higher grounds, confident that his God will save the old man.
The old man waited.
Then a dingy, came along, and the oldman waved the dingy along,
repeating what he had told the people in the sampan.
So along their way the dingy went.
Then much later, a helicopter came along to ferry the old man to safety.
The old man repeated his actions, and waved it along.
As the water rosed, the old man drowned.

When the old man reached heaven, he asked God.
God, why am I dead? Why didn't you answer my prayer?

God replied.
When I heard your prayer, I was so appalled that you were caught in such a horrible situation
that I sent those chaps in the sampan to go get you to safety. But you waved the away.
Seeing that, that didn't help you, I sent the guys in the dingy to see, if they could help you.
Similarly you waved them away.
I thought maybe if I sent the army, in the helicopter to rescue you, that it shouldn't fail.
But you didn't accept the grace anyway.
So that's why you are dead.

----End-----

Just Like the scorpion story,
I would appreciate a one word to summary to this story?

regards

PS: Please be reminded, that the scorpion question is still on.
-------------


Bad Request
Your browser sent a request that this server could not understand.
Apache/2.0.52 (Red Hat) Server at 144472-web1.forexfactory.com Port 80
regards
Thanks Suntrader for the info and for highlighting to me.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 2, 2007 10:39pm
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  #149  
Old Dec 3, 2007 1:58am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

Here were the answers to the scorpion story


leighsww
Okay, for me, there could be two meanings
Turtle = sitting-duck (had to hyphenate, cuz you wanted ONE word, lol)
Scorpion = rigidity

Pips_Cruiser
“Overcoming”
"selfdestruction"

leighsww
"selfdestruction"

FXNorm
SUCKER!

no0odle
"ranging-market"

doremi
Fear & Greed


----------------------------

Maseyw
The nature of the market is random - never be too trusting - never assume too much - babysitting your trade is good - that's my take.

Zoran
Turtle - don't put yourself at risk if you are not comfortable with something. Understand the risk of your trades and do not commit to something that can wipe you out.

moneda
Don't be a turtle
Don't be a scorpion
Instead be A RIVER...go with the flow

daytrading
and I agree with Pips Cruiser on the interpretation.

Green_David's
Good story!
The market is a place of human nature, and that is the reason most of traders lost all finally. But traders still believe the promises emotionally, therefore the market goes on.
---------------------------------

Actually , the targeted date of relaease of the answer was 21 jan 2008. But then Leighsww, convinced me that it was too long away.lest you people may think that I am a teaser.

The reason for such a log time was for you to learn discipline and patience. Not so unlike waiting for market trends.
Anyways please know that you will be missing out the training of patience. You gotta learn it yourself now !
So learn well.

For the scorpion story, there are no wrong answers , just that some of you didn't understand , the request was for ONE WORD.

The lesson my dad taught me was about the human self-destructive nature.
Thats why we smoke.
Thats why we drink.
Thats why we take drugs and medicine (poison)
Thats why we lov to lov chicks that are naughty.
and thats why most people get killed in markets.

He was not a Forex trader , he was a business man , but he knew the consiquences of the human nature.

You see mankind loves to destroy, its easier and their nature.
We destroy so that we can rebuilt.

Many traders harbours this self-destructive machanism, in their sub contious .
even lots of dealers. It's an urge, thingy, something that you cannot scratch.

The fact that most traders are successful in life, otherwise they wouldn't have the capital to trade, works against them. Because they would throough their suceesses have developed a kind of confidence about themselves. When this confidence is carried into positions in markets, it tend to work to their detriment , esp when the view is errorneous. But not unlike W Buffet, it can also work in their favour, the prerequisite is close to unlimited cpitalisation.

I won't go into explaining about the word I was looking for "self-destructive" in the story, if you cannot see it, discuss the subject, I am sure you will find the reasoning.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 3, 2007 2:12am
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  #152  
Old Dec 3, 2007 2:14am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Leighsww,

Come on , don't take it that way,
If I didn't see your reasoning behind it, I wonldn't have conplied.

Make no mistake, I'm and never be anyone's puppet.
Wait it my wife reads this, LOL.

regards
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  #156  
Old Dec 3, 2007 2:45am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

Don't worry about the old man story, it won't be jan .
Just waiting for a few more resposes , thats all.

regards

By the way any Dr. Murray Banks , students here?
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  #158  
Old Dec 3, 2007 3:23am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi David,

Don't know. What do you think.
One thing for sure, its gonna be wild, on both sidesa.
be cautious and nimble.

regards
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  #161  
Old Dec 3, 2007 3:54am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
give the good Dr. a break, go get his stuff,
Its worth ever penny.
try
How to Life with yourself, not by yourself.
or
The wonderful world of sex , sin and sanity.
the messages are all the same .
the presentation and jokes do differ.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 3, 2007 4:08am
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  #162  
Old Dec 3, 2007 6:34am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL.

ok, here comes the answer for the old man story.

what happen, I mention a shrink, and the whole world runs for cover.
Dr. Banks, is not an ordinary shrink.
Hes prof. Dr Banks, A professor.
Anyways if you don't like his prodession, youmay like his jokes.

The key word to the old man story.
the word is : "hope"
a word not so alien to traders.
Much traders have gone on the deep end because of the hope factor. See if rings a bell.
Read the story again.
Maybe you would see,the reasoning.

regards.
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  #164  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:03am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ Zoran,
As you notice , the pace of my postings is indeed accelerating. You are sharp.
I guess I am rushing as I am pressed for time.
You see, the series I am going thru with this forum is
the most important parts of the learning curve,
at least for dealers.- the foundational mindset.
To train dealers I normally, watch their development after classroom lesson
like we are having ,
they are then pushed into the market under my personal supervision,
I feel what they feel , I watch their reactions, I force them into mistakes to make them actually learn hands on
and then re cap their lessons, I guide them out of bad positions ,
so that they can watch how, its being done. the mindset, and all as well as to protect my book.
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  #165  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:07am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

To churn out a functional dealer, that can do and think, it takes from 1.5 to 2 years.
And probablty another two, for proficiency.
Here I have the frustration of not knowing most of the traders levels.
How you think , where the weakest links in the chain may be.
What need reinforcing , what need revisiting.
In effects training old dogs , new tricks.

Then there's this nagging feel behind my mind,
as all of you are actually hands on in the market for yourselfs.
How muchdamage can be done, if you err ,
and whether you traders believe in the truth in my postings.
The important part is, if you can internalise this and make it your own.
Otherwise all this is for noth.

...more
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  #166  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:10am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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One example is the oldman story, that was reslotted because ,
I feared David, was going headon,
and as Leighsww rightly pointed out in her advice to him,
and my thoughts were that it may help him avoid a head on.
You see I believe "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing."
I think he may have just got it right in his head, by a shave.

I have another 3 stories and another 2 poems to go before midset is complete.
This are not performance critical, so I thought I may skip.
The best I can hope for is maybe 5% of the readers are seriously climbing this curve.

What's worst is that before the 20th Dec , I am taking my family to a resort getaway,
the kind with no pphones, no electronic and worldly interference type.
I think you get the picture and probably by mid jan I shall be home in Sg.
We do this annually.

.... more
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  #167  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:11am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Then If I decide to actively trade ,
I shall be less active with my fat fingered typing,
as I shall be fighting my own battles, and shall be available only sparingly.

And I have scheduled the Art of War training, and the money management to finish.
If I threw the whole training out in the open I feel , it serves no real purpose.
Moreover the typing is teadious .....
As for many years I ve been on the 2 button consoles. Buy XXX$ or sell XXX$.
Moreover all my other board papers are done
by the secs who do all the t crosses and the i dotings.

And withourt proper checks and balances from active discussion,
I question if, many can scale the curve well.
except for a few who are actively asking questions and thinking aloud. slow responses,
hamper my urgency in delivery.
Much appreciation for Leighsww, humour and naked cheerleading though.
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  #168  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:11am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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So now my dilemma, how to cut corners and hope for the best for you ppl.
And you probably know by now my opnion about hope.
Nevertheless, I only know all here by forum membership,
so I come without guarantee, and wishing that you all develop as best you can.
Even at the bank, there's a failure attrition of about 30%.
At best, my fervent wish is that being matured traders , most should easily adjust,
and develop, after some proper grounding, baring no lethal experiences.

I am all ears for suggestions. Your comment about the old man story is mindfully under advisement.
Thank you.

regards

PS: It is not me to leave things incomplete or done half heartedly.
My nature, gosh talk abourt self-destructive.

regards

"It is difficult to free people from the chains they revere".............Voltaire
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  #169  
Old Dec 3, 2007 10:17am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All
@ Islander
Sorry that I missed your posting earlier.
Thanks for your kind words.
Do join in the discussions.

@ dopey
How true, the truth.

regards
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  #176  
Old Dec 3, 2007 12:54pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi Pips_Cruiser, Zoran
Its is become a real pain to post long replys after the sytem upgrade.(server bad response error.)
So the reply is broken up.

We are jumping the gun.This is a initial view into Art of War & Money Management.

As you have mention very correctly, hope blinds a traders perceptions in decision processes.
A trader must think with his head , never with his heart.
"Ye who enter, abandon all hope". thats very accurate in a trading perspective.
One should leave hope outside the doors of the dealing arena, when one enters the market place.
It is akin to entering a battlefield.

... more
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  #177  
Old Dec 3, 2007 12:58pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Ones mindset must be "determination",
the resolve to right analysis and right timing within the financial capabilities.
( detailed explaination in the Art of War amd MM section later )
When a soildier,enters battle zones, its a "kill or be killed" zone.,
therefore the senses must be harden.
The facalties must be sharp, and the mind determined.

For interbank dealers, there is little time to think,
most all the time he's being hit either on the bid or the offer,
therefore his only thought process is,
Do I want this position?
There is only one possible answer, yes or no in accordance to his resolve,
and he has to reflex accordingly.
He may hesitate a moment to feel the market sentiments,but soonest he has to decide.

... more
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  #178  
Old Dec 3, 2007 12:59pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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This is different for trader who , chose their positions.
The fact that, their chosing of the trade, is an interplay of hope and expectations,
grounded on whatever the analysis for the taking of the position in the first instance.
Analysis is a complex thought process and should be only done
within the time window of the chosen time frame.
and in accordance with the chosen Modus operandi.
The resultant of that analysis is a binary resolve.

When a position is establish, most traders instead of continuously probing to find time window (opening),
if such was still valid, normally resigns to exploring the alternatives to his analysis.
Even at the expense of accumulating losses.
This is the wrong mindset to adopt.
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  #179  
Old Dec 3, 2007 1:00pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Under adverse conditions, the decision process should be focused, on the resolve of.
1. If the position was desirable , then more capital will have to be put at risk
and a rescue of the badly timed position must be effected.
2. If any mitigating factors, disallows for such to be effected, the trader should
bite the bullet, and put the position out of its misery,
until it may be advantages to reinstate.
No other subjective thoughts must enter to his mind to hamper the managing of the position.

Under favourable senarios , such positions should be guarded with the resolve to ride it within acceptable positive book parameters at all times. (mm section, optimising to zero failure posibilities)

Therefore I have advocated always to be patient to timing your attacks.
Sun Zi Bing Fa
"When torrential water tosses boulders, it is because of its momentum.
When the strike of a hawk breaks the body of its prey, it is because of timing."
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  #180  
Old Dec 3, 2007 1:01pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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As a wrongly timed entrance , just signifys your lack of the ability to pulse the market.
The right protocol, I repeat, would be to either withdraw from the position
with minimal damage.(damage control if you please).
or to commit into the position, as a rescue process and a re-averaging process
for position retreval.
There is no other avenues other than these two options.

If positioning was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis,
then the whole process collapses into hope.
And a host of subjectivity and egoistical processes begins.
Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking.

I hope I articulated clearly.

regards
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  #184  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:01pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
@ Dopey,

You ask the hardest question to answer,and thats because you are putting the cart before the horse.
I say that because you are asking for parameters.
It is the subjective ness that I am grapling with.
Let me explain it this way.

Now I have been trading on the side for myself, not in the forex, but the nikkei225 and taiwan indexes.
By virtue that I do forex for the bank, it was a conflict of interest to deal forex,
but not equity, as thats out of scope for banks.

I manage positions by using the delta hedge technique.
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  #185  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:02pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

We'll start with the bank.
We have large corp customers who need hedges for their FX risk on annual earnings,
so as a service we write them OTC currency options and other synthetics.
These positions have delta reads, which tells us what our exposure is.
As markets move the deltas changes.

So basically we receive premiums, for the undertaking. We collect theta and Vols moneys.
Now that gives us foreign capital to risk in the markets.
Remember, I said as the market move my delta changes.
So as the customers come closer in or out of the money,
I have to adjust the hedge of the exposures.
Sometimes when the market trend run, I could just as well expose the delta to full hedge.
or non at all if they are getting too far out of the money.
Of course other than that profits , I have spot exposures profits as well.

... more
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  #186  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:02pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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For my personal portfolio,it was very much smaller than the banks books, nevertheless,
it operates on the same MO but in the futures market,
only that my hedge bros becomes very expensive, even though I used to be a non clearing seat owner.
Now they converted to exchange shares, and thats another story.

One of the reasons I am here is to find out, if there ia an option FX retail market,
and how the vol are skews.
I would be much obliged is there are traders here who would help me out with some info.


...more
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  #187  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:04pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Now your million $ question, what parameters should a traders trading retail spot positions use.
Frankly, I cannot ascertain for sure as I have not participated in the retail game yet.
In interbank spot there is no leverage .So the value at risk is, close to volitility figures.
On the average it is in the high teens.
Depending on the the ratio of leverage you use, it doubles every 1X leverage.
Having said that, I have done one experiment, I doubled my demo deposit in 3 weeks.
but of course the if I didn't manage the position prudently I could be wiped out in the same tenure.
So all I can tell you at the moment is that it is stillnot conclusive yet,
this is because I have to deal with two varables, one optimum leverage and at different volitility of markets.

... more
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  #188  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:05pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

But of course you can take the military offensive attack ratio of 1:3 for every shift of short chart tenure,
but the snowballing gets to become very large to stomach.
Imagine after 5 steps.But of course you may even consider martingale or fibonacci progression of increasing your exposure,
and even these are not small potatoes, relative to your margining.
The snowballing of the value at risk is not easy to manage because of the leverage.
I am at moment experimenting , no leverage game, to consider its viability.

Generally if you used less than 3 step for remodest recovery of bad entries on the short time frame, it can still be useful.
Then you also must consider the attack strategy to ride trend that are persistent.
and thats another calculus, you have to workout for yourself,
as doing defensive trading only , isn't worth the effort without a posibility of trend rides.
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  #189  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:06pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

So in a nut shell it depends on the risk you are willing or is able to stomach.
A flat game probably is only good for entertainment value.
The parameter thresholds I had at the bank ,I think I have already given in this thread.

Basically the money managing is a abstract derivative from the SunZi bing fa.
If suits and time permits, we may visit it.

regards
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  #190  
Old Dec 3, 2007 5:24pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi MickD,

Is TA a fallacy?
No not by itself and if you keep to the mainstream analysis.
but you can create the fallacy if you approach it wrongly.

The word
Technical = implys Charting
Analysis = imply the need to use brains to think and to reason.

If you use TA meaning line crosses, breakout trading , predictive analysis. black boxes, and ahost more ??????????????
Sorry, for calling a spade , a spade.

Think about it.
whether it is technical or otherwise , the fact that you have to think, deems it analysis.
A trend follower is called a trend rider.
What should we call line followers? surely not Technical ANALYST.
I guess for me thats "the Fallacy"

regards
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  #211  
Old Dec 3, 2007 11:01pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
On the development of Zoran, presenting a case study. I shall adopt his chart as exhibit for dissection.So I will be digresing back to the analytics before goning on into the MM.

On the issue of title, to me its of zero importance, maybe as conversation and debate headers.
This is because because any analyst in position that has no exposure, TO ME,
is a wasting piece of furniture taking up critical space.
Would do well as decorative material of no consiquence to book value, at best.

regards
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  #214  
Old Dec 3, 2007 11:28pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
The Zoran stripings.
----------------------
Istly the chart you presented is a cross chart.
the nature of crosses
-------------------
being non majors they have a tendency to cluster or tear easily due to that they are less liquid as conpared to majors.

so the runs you see on the chart is probabily due to widen spreads on their one leg of the USD cross, or both widenings of the USD/ currency majors, vreating directional tear, therefore trends.

makes sense?

regards
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  #217  
Old Dec 3, 2007 11:42pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
@ Bunton
What you mentioned is alsolutely accurate, in the sense of a foot soildier.
Try relating in the context of the CO. General if you like.( part 1 of the Art of War training - 'YOU' The General. aka self.
What you related does apply to the general or CO in a sense.
But it becomes more than that.
Vision this a general (CO)with his troops in "runing battle".

Thats why I study Sun Zi, mastering the command of strategies.
Does this make sense?

regards
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  #221  
Old Dec 4, 2007 12:05am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,
@ Leighsww,

The chart presented was a GBP/YEN chart.
The cross comprise of GBP/USD against USD/JPY.
so the movements in the respective majors have an impact on the cross.
yes?
(Majors currency pairs = USD/JPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, if renminbi gets to free float probalily be a major due to its size.
Monors pairs: USD/currencies eg USD/dinar, USDpeso, USDlira...
Exotics: USD/ third world currencies also USD/crosses)

The two pairs of GBP?USD and NSD?YEN normally moves in tendem of its natural relationship, which is an inverse relationship.

It is when one leg is not moving in the natural tendency. Or when both is tearing from the norm tendenct that created the swift and directional moves.

I check, You still on?

regards
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  #223  
Old Dec 4, 2007 12:30am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Burton,
Just FYI,

Army War College (U.S.) Strategic Studies Institute. Sun Tzu and Clausewitz: The Art of War and On War Compared.

Mendez, Anthony W. (LtCol, USAF). The Gettysburg Campaign: "Know Your Enemy, Know Yourself". Maxwell AFB, AL, Apr 1995. 41 p. (Air University (U.S.) Air War College. Research report)
Discusses the Battle of Gettysburg in light of Sun Tzu's principles of war.

Thompson, Philip S. (Maj, USA). U.S. Army Deception Planning at the Operational Level of War. Fort Leavenworth, KS, Mar 1991
(U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Monograph)

Lots more, google it.

regards
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  #224  
Old Dec 4, 2007 12:36am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default The Zoran stripings

Hi ALL,
The Zoran stripings.
----------------------

Sexy looking chart.

Will someone put on the "Cherry Pink And Apple Blossom White",please for enhanced ambience.

Getting rid of the makeup.

I see you use Moving averages. yes?
the Green line being of shorter average time frame.
the red line being of longer time frame than the green line.
then you have the black( maroon) average line, probabily the low read of an average thats close to or equal to that of the red line. Which will put the red line probabily marked against the high compononet of the bar chart.

I cannot see the purpose of the red and black line, except to dazzle you.the green average has some analytical value.
So if you would remove the red and black average it may aliviate clutter fromyour charts.

If you are game try it.

regards
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  #226  
Old Dec 4, 2007 12:44am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi leighsww,
correction if Imay,

this is the style that fti used in training dealers and how fti talks, lol.
fti is not all banks, but a few banks had him for some time.
So there is a circle of these fti type people around, still. hopefully.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 4, 2007 1:10am
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  #228  
Old Dec 4, 2007 1:13am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Leigh,

I guess most banks do use the terms,
When we come on to the desk, the term is "battlestations gentlemen".

regards
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  #239  
Old Dec 4, 2007 6:02am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
@ Zoran,
In respond to post 235

I hope you are clear about that GBP/JPY is actually a spot GBP/USD cross with the spot USD/JPY. There exist no such spot market in the interbank. Its is a cross of two Majors.
If still unclear read #233 again and see if you can understand. In Leighsww accurate words, a cross pair.

Cross pairs (thanks to Leighsww) are normally very dormant, but when they tear, its very wild and swift. OK, we leave that, at that. Just wanted to tell you about the pairs Nature.

----
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  #240  
Old Dec 4, 2007 6:03am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

@Zoran, wow, your short charts a masterpiece of art, absolutely beautiful, but will give an analyst super migrain. I don't kid. How you cope astounds me. LOL
Firstly the volume is meaningless, ok so ty to do without that.
2ndly, the red and black averages are also meaningless. and the green average is parameters off. as it thes me nothing watso ever of the term average or equilibrium prices levels.
3 Your spiral expanding levels also clutters the chart giving no useful readability, therefore I find no use for them.

Analysis
----------
Your attempted entry is actually quite pespectable, baring the fact, as you mentioned, catching a falling knife. Even if you had waited for possible support at that level your long attempted wouldn't be too far of the inital entry. Make no mistake that this make ne any more comfortable in the catching the knife scenerio, only showing that you are a gutsy trader, or someone who have not experienced the wreath of that style.
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  #241  
Old Dec 4, 2007 6:04am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

What I must highlight to you is, that as the day closed off and opened gap down for a break of your assumed support, you did not capitalised on the retrace covering of that price gap to bail out of the already bad position which has no more basis to be there any more after the gap away. If you peruse the chart you will notice that you actually had 2 opportunities to come out with little damage.
After reading your excerpt of your after thoughts, I believe that you now understand the criticalness of right mindset. To many traders , what happened to you is possible to happen, but such mistakes normally is costly.

If palatable to you maybe a little less studies would serve you in better standing. For a clearer mind in you analysis.
A case where less is better. Of course do keep those that do help you steady your frame of mindset.

regards.

Last edited by fti, Dec 4, 2007 6:21am
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  #242  
Old Dec 4, 2007 6:16am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Dopey,
Please, no apologies necessary.
It was just my trying to cope with my own time constrains.
trying to cut corners. You brought up a vaild question.
Plaese do not take ny mentioning the cart and horse thingy negatively.
Just a light hearted jest of your accelerated progress.
Sometimes its hard to recognise the interpretations in written casual communications.
I feel sorry that you have felt snyped upon by my jestic remark.

Your contributions are well received, and I believe many here would share the same sentiments.

@ wolf,
Thanks for your kind word.
Do sent us your 2 pips when suits.


regards
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  #244  
Old Dec 4, 2007 6:53am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

I would like to give you, a little light poem, for your easy reading.
As I am very tired and will continue after a nice rest.
Its titled IF.

IF
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you;
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about , don't deal in lies,
Or being hated don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk to wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear the truth you have spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools.

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at the beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the WILL which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it.
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling

regards
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  #267  
Old Dec 5, 2007 12:48am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

Thanks all who have said such kind words.
and much appreciation, for Leighsww, who has done much in the keeping this thread vibrant and alife.
(wondered if this could have continnued without your lending , your aura. LOL)

My reason for making this thread was to help traders (for free), come back, with their feets back to the ground. for some of you, you may understand what I mean.

Nevertheless let me explain.
If you had watched "crouching tiger and what? was it (hidden) dragon" . You may remember the lead actor and actress standing on the tip of bamboo leaves, and holding each other in a most romantic scene. Chinese martial arts is good for health and trains lots of very good lessons about the body and mind. BUT make no mistake that what you saw is not humanly possible. ( well, not for me, the having the woman in arms part maybe, but not with both of us standing on the tip of bamboo leaves) Thats where the problem lays. There are many super analysts today teaching their reserches of this kind of fantasy/fallacy, in the name of technical analysis. Taking the trading community to feats not humanly possible. Worst there are scammers cashing in to this, and begining to mislead the perceptions of most wanting traders.

The tree branches out, that is the nature of growth. But when a branch tries to reach out to topple the tree, it should be trimmed, lest the action be allowed to continue, distroying the main.

Thank you Leighsww, your analysis and the revealing of my performance, and reasonings are very level minded. Now thats its in the open,( I asked you not to), I accept your compliments. And further, I confess , YES, I am a super dealer. My performances in the markets willblow your mind.( there goes modesty, such disgraceful self-praise.), but I paid the price with my health and body. Theses days I go thru these battles sparingly due to physical fatigue. I've had the pleasure to sparing with the best in my industry (my region), the likes of C.Muku (the king of USD/DM), D. Leong & J Yeoh (citicorp smm(super marketmakers) ), QH. Ho (grenfell smm), R.Loke( merill L), W.Chow( UBS mastro), Mr K.Koh,(Secpac smm), V. Lam( Midland smm), CN Ho(Morgan fame smm), Kono san (BOT smm), S. Sim(UBS), L.Khang(Bankers Trust), H Chan (Rabo) D Mak(First Interstate)......if this list goes on I'll start a interbank dealing directory listing. These people are all retired already , some are no longer around. nevertheless for regional smm, these were some of the best. We all much thinks alike. Based on our performance, its not possible to be wrong.

What Leighsww, has seen in the hand held sessions, is only the tip of the iceburg, I imposed my thinking on her, for her to feel the actual running battles. (reward for your standupness and your beautiful personaity) But for trading, you have to think for yourself, do try to ruplicate the "feel" of the dance. The truth is, the rest of the iceburg, is not really so different. If you had seen one , you had seen all.( and don't take this the wrong way) The terrain may change, but the it's, more of the same.

When we move into the Art of war and MM , always remember this, I say again, do not forget.
It can be used as the sword that leads you into great victories and grandure.
But forget the, foundation and the mindset, be careless, and it will be that which will take your head off.
I could havr in 1 posting gave you the summary, like what Islander did.(and you made some wrong assumtions there, but your understanding of the concept is correct),
but that way, I felt would be giving dangerous weapons to the uninitiated.

And nobody likes ripyard, huh, too negative?

regards

PS: the other isp was blocking my long postings, possible tech problems. this ones ok.

Last edited by fti, Dec 5, 2007 1:09am
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  #270  
Old Dec 5, 2007 1:21am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Leighsww,

No matter, don't feel bad , I know you meant well, to kick some of the traders to listen carefully.
In its own, I guess, It does serve a purpose. Only that now I feel like "I am the king of the mountain." I am afraid that it may get to my head.

The truth is, I wanted the pple to decipher, if what I said was true, without reference to who I was, thats speaking. To accept the truth, knowing what or who i was , may just allow them the mindset to accept blindly.To question and understand the truth, that would be gold.

So no more cheerleading from you? How sad.
OK to bribe you, how's about another good trade? LOL

regards

PS:oops, I didn'tmean bribe as in bribe, I meant sweeten your feelings.
Ahh, bad position, damage control.
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  #272  
Old Dec 5, 2007 1:32am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi leighsww,


So sorry, my bad.
Ouch, ouch, ouch

regards
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  #274  
Old Dec 5, 2007 1:49am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi leighsww,
No bribes, here's something to sweeten for you.

Hiroko Kokubu & Kiyotsugu Amano - Etude (album Heaven)
Hiroko Kokubu & Kiyotsugu Amano - Perfidia (album Heaven & Beyond)
Katie Melua - If You Were A Sailboat ( Album Pictures)
Katie Melua - Nine million Bicycles

regards
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  #280  
Old Dec 5, 2007 2:14am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Pips_Cruiser,

You are wise. there within "IF", are great lessons about life and living.
Unfortunately, these can only be recognised when one comes into its fold. ( level)

Have it as reference, is the already the guilding light for the journey.
I am glad that you are in it.

regards

I do howerver have a version , the fti version of desiderata, with most of the this stuff in there.
I'll give it to you ppl , at the end, God willing.
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  #283  
Old Dec 5, 2007 2:34am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Leighsww,

Dozo.
Stay english, lah, don't want to start a trend here.

regards
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  #291  
Old Dec 5, 2007 8:48am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ David,
How are you? checked your email lately?
I think fiveshorts deserves an answer from me.
here goes.

@ fiveshorts.
I have reread the thread you posted.
I remember now, that when you posted, I felt you had a bad day at the markets,
so just read it and forgot to reply you.


I believe your question to me was about compliing volume figures.

The reason why I didn't reply you was because I didn't want to feel too stupid,
that I didn't have the answer.
Since you asked again, I think I should answer.

The truth is fiveshorts, I don't have an answer.
You see, the spot interbank fx market is all over the world,
Sometimes in Wellington, sometimes in Singapore , then Tokyo, then HongKong then to Dussedolf, then London, followed by New York back to Wellington,,,, and it goes on and on
and most of these trading centers also operate 24 hrs..
And the volume of corp. orders are secrets at the banks that carry them.
So it would be too difficult to go around the few thousand banks and Merchant banks, Investment banks/houses and insttutions to find out what volume was traded at any price made.
The only people who may have composite monthly figures would probably be CHIPs in the USA as they clear most USD interbank transaction, maybe the Federal Reserve Board, as they are the regulators. The other possibility could be the BIS, (Bank of International Settlements), or the World Bank or IMF (the international Monetary Funds), These people may have monthly reports of the transactions done.

So it is impossible for me the see any one having access to volume of transactions done, even the daily figures are hard to come by. OK, so I hope my answer is acceptable to you.

Regarding, that which you said, about Leighsww,
I think you may have erred, in that she is, in my opinion, a very upstanding, nice, sincere classy lady, who goes out of her way to help other traders. Esp new traders.
In my time that I have known her, which is very short time, I have much to thank her, for her charismatic and jovial nature, which has kept this thread vibrant.
I ask you, to rethink , by reread the whole thread again, to see if this is not true.

@ Islander.
Hey, friend, your recap of the points I was trying to make is great.
Being the experienced trader, that you must be,
your understanding of what I was trying to articulate, is accurate.

Where you may have missed the mark is in the
MO of using "naked" charting methodology ( True Technical Analysis),
that I am strongly encouraging.
I would like to have you , re-peruse , my bablings and see if you would add that to your summary.

I am glad that you found this thread entertaining.

@ Leighsww,
Hey I thought you hit the sack already. Why? small pips profit, not enough ?
Be gracious, and accept Zoran's nice words, lah.
Read his statement carefully,
He didn't meant that he owed you anything,
just wanted to sound his appreciation to you.
I think he's most sincere about it. ( Zoran, I think she don't like words, next time just send roses)
Why so edgy? Remember , it can affect your trading.
And don't take this the wrong way, huh, not warning, just naked advice only.:-)

regards
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  #293  
Old Dec 5, 2007 9:24am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ Dopey,
Thanks for your kind words,

Wow, You've been there, done it, I am very sure. No question.
Great teacher you had, Darkstar, was it?
I may know him, its a small world, Just to probe Mr D-----miller, The Q------m funds man,
of G soros fame?

Sorry, I was laughing till my sides hurt. He made you do sissors , paper and stone?
I was guessing matchsticks game, before I read the link.

Ah , about the,
"After 1.5 years with him we finished. By then I knew there weren't any "secrets" at all. There is only mindset. Guys like him and fti had institutional advantages we don't have"

I hope you may like to qualify that its FINANCIAL institutional, otherwise they may get it wrong., huh and think the happy institutions. LOL
boy, my side hurts.LOL and rolling on the floor.
( where's my medication )
Remember I mention Dr Banks, the whole world ran for cover.LOL

Power to You, and Good Fortune.

regards

PS: hey guys watch it , the bald eagle flys.
Good night.

Last edited by fti, Dec 5, 2007 10:00am
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  #311  
Old Dec 5, 2007 7:50pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL

here's something about SIZE.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...m_medium=email

enjoy.

regards
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  #315  
Old Dec 6, 2007 3:03am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ pipmaster,

Glad you like the style.
I don't know about the rest of the chinese,
there's too many of us.
Got "nine million bicycles in Beijing alone".
( Nine million bicycles - Katie Malua).
Anyway this is the style of fti.( fu zhou Long )
One of the billion of chinese around.

"In all the black there is the white,
In all the white there is the black."

" As above, so below"

Goodnight pipmaster.

@ antinomian

Just for info, Although I am living in singapore for 20+ years now.
I am 4th generation overseas chinese but I am not Singaporean.
Next generation is.
I am expat.

Read my postings carefully, Stop to think and relate to your trading.
Then try to formulate the MO behind the written.
Casual thinking just skims the surface.
Ask yourself questions outloud.
Debate the issue without boundaries.
Think "out of the predefined box"
And go right to the basic foundation of the study,
Most of the postings go very deep in doctrine.
The methodology is in the postings. (KISS)
seek and you shall find, ask and it shall be answered.
Practice, Use it or lose it.

study well.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 6, 2007 3:30am
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  #316  
Old Dec 6, 2007 3:04am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default A young pretty Maiden, A Monk and A Young Monk.

A Lesson about Mind Over Matter.
A young pretty Maiden, A Monk and A Young Monk.
(Not Another Crossing the River Story)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Once upon a time long.... long ago, somewhere in China.
A Monk and a young monk in training, came to the banks of a stream.
There at the banks stood a young pretty maiden in tears.

Whats the matter? the Monk asked the maiden.
I need to cross the stream, to meet with my groom, the maiden replied, but I cannot,
(you see in china then, all the pretty maidens had their feet binded
and have grave difficulty in walking through uneven terrain.)

So being the gentleman that he is, the Monk offered to carry the maiden across.
The Monk then carried the maiden on his back across the stream.
Arriving across the stream, the happy lady quickly thanked him and went on her way.
The monk then went along his way with the young monk.

After a few hours, of walking,
the monk noticed that the young monk was troubled and too silent.
He enquired and the young monk replied with a question.

Aren't we monks, by oath, not to touch women?, he asked
Yes replied the monk.
Why do you ask?, asked the monk.
No special reason, replied the young monk,
Just that you carried that pretty maiden across the stream, a couple of hours ago.

Oh!, exclaimed the Monk.
I carried her on my back across the stream,
and across, I have unload her from my back and she is happily on her journey.
and you have been carrying her all the while, since then?,
you should unload her as soon as you can, before it becomes too much of a burden for you to bear.

---END---

Last edited by fti, Dec 6, 2007 3:41am
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  #324  
Old Dec 6, 2007 7:05am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ seekinglight,
Remember, that in the trading context, there are no rules,
we make up the rules ourselves, so try not to enchain ourselfs.

I see we have a bunch of very good traders on hand.
more comments pls.
Ok then I'll check in again tom.
good night for now.

Last edited by fti, Dec 6, 2007 7:44am
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  #350  
Old Dec 6, 2007 9:25pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

Thanks all for you thoughts

@ heheundhaha,
"crying over split milk....haha"
you meant crying over losses, right?

@ gene22,
Ist you saw the point, then you went back to reread it.
see what happens then?

@ Seekinglight,
Why are you fighting with yourself?
If you contine at it, ward 13 might come to get you, friend, LOL.

"I am the river, I flow as I go. The Dao has me."
it translates , I am the flow, and I am nothing but natural.
Just in case you need it translated.

@ Gknarf,
Ahhh, see.

@ Scoundrel,
See everybody gets it.

@ fierceman,
thanks, I believe zoran now understands

@ Green_David,
To understand the market movement, it is impossible, otherwise there will be no market.
The rule that the trader must comform to is sell high, buy low. thats it.

You asked,
What the principle/criteria to set up an entry and exit a position?
To be able to do that, understand this.

"Can you under stand life and its mystries, You cannot as long as you try to grasp it,
just as you cannot walk off with a river in a bucket.
If you try to capture a river in a bucket, it is clear that you go not understand it
and you will always be disappointed for in the bucket is not the river.
To have the river, you must let go and let it run."

"Music is a delight because of its rhythm and flow.
Yet the moment you arrest the flow
and prolong a note or chord beyond its time the rhythm is destroyed."

Not so unlike rivers and music , the markets flows.
It is not the market that you have to content with it is 'YOU'.

@ Zoran,
Do whatever it takes, to get it right.
Read it once understand it, then rest the mind and let it understand itself.

@ doremi,
Nice of you to understand the Scorpion, this story is the advanced version.

@ Islander
You have a good brain, the right brain I mean not the wrong one. just jesting, lol
You had good thoughts.

@ maheswara
Welcome, make it yours, desiderata that is.

@ Pips_Cruiser
Islander have good thoughts and you're not bad as well.

@Leighsww,
Ahh, welcome back, where did you go. Been busy?
I thought we, lost your cheers.

@ webfoot,
Aaaa, Are you zen master, or grasshopper?

@MickD
You're ok, but ease off on the R?R thingy for your books health, seriously.

@ kiwi_trader
Friend, I typed that out from memory, of what my dad taught me.
How did you placed me in India ? Reincarnation ?lol

@ Maseyw
Forward !, friend, steady as she goes.

@ pips_crusier,
Carefull, Don't go there.

@ pipmaster
Hey, Where do you intend to bring the whole truck load of us? LOL.
Careful with your screens.You don't want to post that in some kinky sites.LOL

A think most people got it right, there's no wrong answers.
but the message in the trading context was,

Please DO NOT over analyse things in charts ( &life), I didn't say don't analyse.
Remember when I posted about hope.
Analysing, then trading it, analysing again, when things, go wrong.
I bet you won't be analysing the charts again when things are going right.
When things go wrong , action to do damage control is necessary.
Views and reviews become optical illusions to the brain.
It will dazzle your mind.
More over ability not to allow your memory of the past,
intrude into you present is important.
It would upset your ability to mobilise the required action. ( SElf doubt)

regards

PS there's more 2 more stories coming soon before we conclude mindset . BE PREPARED.

Last edited by fti, Dec 7, 2007 12:08am
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  #353  
Old Dec 6, 2007 10:07pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi leighsww,

Pips_crusier, was begining to reanalyse his initial thoughts.
that's all.

After so many years of market battles, Have to be a little out.
realignment necessary.LOL

regards
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  #355  
Old Dec 6, 2007 10:39pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi All,
suntrader,

Just FYI,
Stories/parables/poems (WISDOM) past down through the ages never will get lost, its the people who gets lost, due to their indifference. If what you say was true, then you would be wearing leaves and all those "primitive" things today. It has always been the wisdom of those before us that have propelled human development.

"...But if we are to apply them to the here and now then they have to make sense in the here and now in the modern world we live in...."

What part of the story doesn't apply today? Please enlighten me. ????

"...Yes the younger monk was carrying a burden he should free himself from. But are there rules - or not?..."

No, I don't see any rules there.
You have a free will to choose otherwise,
of course the consiquences , you yourself , would have to pay.
If you can read carefully, the monk taught , "should" not "must",.
It is wisdom and advisory, not mandatory.

Look, friend, to each, his own.
You are at liberty to do whatever pleases you with your money.
If you want to shackle youself up,please go ahead.Its no skin off my nose.
I just wanted to help some people to see the folly of it.
Hey, I have no gun pointed at you. So do whatever pleases you.
But if you may want to put egor down, and think a bit ,
you're welcome do do so.

Made your millions, then don't listen to me.

regards

PS: Oh, ward 13 is the happy ward.

I forgot. Those "rules" that you are using , where did it come from?
Did you invented them?
Was also wondering, do you in the first place know how to calculate the components of the indicators that you are using. MANUALLY? and dio you know who invented stop loss orders and why they were invented?

And I would also like to know, which broker enforces the "rule" that "No entry without first defining an exit" and MUST be accompanied with stop loss,. IIf you can highlight them I will take up that issue with the CFTC and the NFA.

Last edited by fti, Dec 6, 2007 10:54pm
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  #358  
Old Dec 6, 2007 11:10pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SunTrader View Post
The CIA should get in touch with.

And here is a little advice for you and the old wise one. Take a chill pill. Old ancient America expression.

How dare I question the "Wisdom"!

Did you just made a threat? Or just shooting blanks?
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  #361  
Old Dec 6, 2007 11:55pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
Maybe that chap just lost too much money.
He should go home and kick his cat instead.

Does anyone here, have any opinion, about what he's so upset about.
Of course that can discuss things like a human being, not some one from the wards.
Maybe you would like to say something. seekinglight.

Sure would like to get some opinions before we proceed.

regards

Leighsww , are u ok?
Lucky its friday, sure spoils the trading ambience.
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  #366  
Old Dec 7, 2007 12:22am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ yeah, but I was just at the end of posting replies to your views and actually was waiting for some response.
I guess suntrader , got to rough for comfort, could be the sun thingy,lol.
So if any one wants clearification, please ask.

oTherwise I will be typing out the other stories later , in the day.
ok.

regards

PS: Was I too harsh in my responses?
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  #368  
Old Dec 7, 2007 12:49am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pips_Cruiser View Post
Traders can get "married" (attached) to their market forecasts, and evidently they can get married to their trading philosophies as well. It looks like not everyone is ready for you yet, fti. But we shouldn't let that get in the way of the lessons.
Hi pips_crusier,

I guess you're right.Too entranched into controlling risk.
Was surprised that, came from a "Pro" trader. esp, a matured one.

Many trading Gurus, do advocate putting stoplosses to their trade.
Normally, they come from the futures derivative sections,
In forex some corp. practise this for their more junior people,
to prevent "excessive exuberance" (Borrowed from the great Greenspan) .
During my era , dealers where trained differently. The focus was on bottom line and monitoring.
I do understand that since the few structural meltdowns, alot of the powers have transfered to the compliance ppl to protect the institutions. Making dealers jobs very difficult at time.

Further, getting to understand the retail game, this few weeks,
I am to the opinion that there is already, the safe guard of auto liquidation on margin-call point. So unless the traders cannot think for themselves , overlosses shouldn't happen. Unlike Futures contracts, they have daily limits and market closures, on excessive runs, which is not the case for forex, I guess we'll have to trust the Feds and other CBs to be on the guard, just in case these may happen.But since the free float era , (touch wood) nothing unbecoming has happened yet.
Thought fig releases may create markets extreme volitility or widen spreads.
I guess that may be the only visable dangers, for over leveraged accounts.
So ppl , careful with trading into fig releases.
I did read a posting about what happened to GBP recently.

regards
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  #369  
Old Dec 7, 2007 12:58am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
LOL, just about the cat (for me anyway, haha).


We all knows you luvs us, or why the heck would you be spending so much dang time and effort in this thread trying to enlighten us, sheesh.
Leighsww,
You're quite telepatic, I was just asking myself the same thingy.
What am I doing this for? on a public forum?
All I could come up with was , maybe it may help some traders.
I don't know, should I stop, everyones' so silent, wonder if there's any interest.

actually quite tired of all this hammering the keyboard.
If you still want to progress on , Could do via email.

regards
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  #373  
Old Dec 7, 2007 1:12am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi leigh,
There's another concern, that many here are mildly experienced in the game.
When I trained dealers, I supervised their growth.
From some emails I received, it is quite apparant that all are differing levels.

Lets me tell you another story.
Not another dang, river story.

If I was to give your a horse.
Then there may be traders, who feel, well maybe the horse could do better with legs like and elephant, cos its tougher, and thicker.Some may adjust the tail to stream line it.You get the idea. Modify here there, then at the end they get some funny kind of monster. possibly Frankeinstein.

I guess my fervent wish is for them to pick out stuff that works for them, and improve their bottomline.

Donno gotta think abit.

regards

PS: You see my style is pro100% so, I am entertaining that other pros thoughts that the pros style ,can it be used safely by amatures? Actually I have given you guys Strutural Grounding+ a look into the mindset.
Noe Art of war and MM is very scary stuff. Like I said . not careful it could take your heads off.
I was already thinking earlier, that I should test you people out ,and only give to those that can handle it. But then it wouldn't be nice of me.
So like, can I ask you guys to play sicssors, paper & stones for abit, while I give it some thought first?

Last edited by fti, Dec 7, 2007 1:25am
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  #386  
Old Dec 7, 2007 3:58am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

No need to PM me,
as Leighsww suggested.

I'm actually enjoying my music.

On thing about forums, there's the mass of good people and the few rotten apples.
They re everywhere.

Like the teachings,

Some black in white
some white in Black
as above so below.

I will post some stuff, in a bit.
Thanks all well-wishers.


regards
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  #387  
Old Dec 7, 2007 4:06am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by webfoot View Post
I once asked a snake if he liked crawling on his belly,
he answered, "Why shouldn't I, that's what I do best."
Hey snake, only a snake can talk to another.
enjoy your conversation.
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  #388  
Old Dec 7, 2007 4:19am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Loss recovery.

Hi ALL,

before we go on, I think I should mention this.

A long time ago.
Mr. Welles Wilder taught me this.

This is not new.It was old when the Phoenicians were trading with the Romans and the Greek Philosopers cornered the olive oil market. This is the concept.

The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geomatrically with losses.

The concept is as the following table

% Loss intial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900

The % gain required to to come back to balance (break even) will increase gemetrically with your losses.
if you loss 20% of your capital. you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.
So please be careful with your trading.

regards.

PS: I need to take a nap, so this is the last post for today.
Think about it.
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  #421  
Old Dec 9, 2007 12:03pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ Green_David,
I do remember that you did posted a chart for my analysis,
I have not replied your post because you posted a daily chart,
And based on the chart , that market has moved into a range congestion.
Within that congestion time window
is where you will be hinted on the new possibilities that can develop.
What I want to tell you is that instead of trying to impose analysis on the chart,
one viewing of it already can tell you what to expect of the possibilities.
It is what it continues to form as time progresses that is more important.

Resistance and support levels are never absolute.It changes as time progresses.
Your trade positions must change as the chart progresses and a continued analytics be done.
DO NOT try to read it once and have a set mind of the possibilities of what to expect.
The analysis is an on going process and every new bar added will cause new developments.
Never read the patterns that form on the chart, rather recognise it when it forms,
and follow it with a trade position.
Chart patterns can mutate as time advances
and a fixed perspective to the pattern that has formed is dangerous
as it palalyses your ability to change when the dance changes.
Althought it is foundational that you should be able to read the pattern formations,
you should not draw those lines on to your chart.
They can form optical illusions to your mind and
impair your ability of new developments that is coming onstream in the charts.

Follow the development as I explain Zorans chart errs to him.

@ Zoran,
Regarding your posted chart.
Read what I have explained to David. further,
refer to your chart as I highlight the dangers of,
your drawing lines and patterns on your chart.
Note your up-sloping channel. It looks like a tunnel thru the air scenerio.
But pay attention to what I sketch on your chart,
to prove to you that the pattern can change ,
and leave you holding your old analysis in your head,
while new signals have developed to hint you for other possibilities.

1. You have because you have drawn two parallel lines of upward tunnelling.
So you have a perception of a continuing bull market.

2. Watch as I add new development, which hints you of impending change ,
but will not be visible to you, because of your lines.

Notice how the market has changed within your channel, range 1r(in red),
that change can happen as in this case inside your percieved channel,
Selling possibilities had already existed within the zone marked 1,
which is inside your channel.
While you may still be awaiting your percieved neckline to break for confirmation.
By the time you get the confirmation you may be already too late in the move,
(david's complain of catch fish head and tails)
and you would have lost the major part of the move.
If you remove your paralell lines
you may see that you can redraw
a new head and shoulder neck breakage inside the channel.
This is only one example, And although it is hypothetical, there will be many possibilities
and I a sure you that in life analysis your lines will impair your ability
to read the patterns that may be forming.
Remove the lines and you will definately see much more possibilities unfolding.

I urge you , do not draw patterns on your charts,
learn to recognise them visually without markings,
you will find that once you master recognising them without having them
being drawn on the charts, you will have less possibilities of pre-concieved pattern errors.


regards
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Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 12:38pm
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  #422  
Old Dec 9, 2007 12:08pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Zoran,

I did another example on your charts to prove the point again.
Note the upwedge near the top of the channel,
inducing the short positionand the continuation pattern of an inverted flag.
Where the long leg already overexceeded possible targeted profitaking.
Then the formation of an intermediate W bottom, where I would have been long,
way before you saw the wedge breakout on the top.
By the time you got in long at the break of the wedge,
I would alredy be testing to see if the resistence top could be broken,
watching for signs for resistance,
on breakup, It hits my intermediate W bottom targets.
And subsequently formed intermediate M tops,
for my test of short position downward. while you drew your down wedge,
my targets for M top is acceived and
within that scope is long now looking at a possible profittaking
and watching the down sloping flag formation
and awaiting other possibilities or for a continuation of a big W bottom formation
and awaiting a neck possibility.

Does this prove to you, that your drawing your patterns on your chart
impairs your ability to be nimble for proper and clear analysis?
Please do not mistaken that I am trying to prove myself better than you
or anything else other than to use this example tp try to prove to you,
that your placing these art on the chart does have a real impact in affecting
your analysis.

regards
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Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 1:44pm
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  #423  
Old Dec 9, 2007 12:14pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

I like to tell you another story,
this is cos I can feel my "dealer arrogance" is begining to surface to bother me.
It's a natural tendency for most dealers.
BUT do not belittle, the things that my dad taught me.
It's as sure as the sun rising in the morning.

While I try to arrest the monster......
I've given you the most important law in trading.
The WWilder taught me, thingy.
The whole MM is wrapped in those numbers.
Some might see it, most will not.
To work it, there are some prerequsites.
It has value only when you can incorp, it strategically with the artof war MO.

Ponder this

All technivcal indicators aare lag reading of market footprint.
There is a required intelligence to decript them for an opinion of the dance.
Why does people allow themselves to use these as the holy grail?
The question is why?
The answer lies in those numbers and in "you".

If you cannot see the answer, then here's a tip.
What caused Princess diana's death? God rest her soul.
tip: sitting in car driven by someone else
Who killed her? the driver
Why did it happened?
cos' her life depended on some one elses skills other than her own.
I dare not question her position, and the luxury of her rights, you must understand.
But the fact was , her life was in someone elses hands.
If anyone wants to bring this to other perspectives of debate. Go debate it yourself..
I am talking about the lessons from the facts, not the hypothesis of the event.
Don't look at the incident, look at the lesson in it.
Now princess diana has nothing to do with trading,
But her death left a lesson for traders, who are indicators dependent.
I hope some of you can understand.
There are lots of things in life that are beyond our ability to control,
some may like to add trading to be one of them.

And here's the story, some may recognise someone they know in it.
I try to relate Dr Banks as best I can remember.

A man came to a shrink,
Sat down on the couch,
the shrink enquired,
How may I help you ?
The man started with I think I have a inferiority complex.
And the good Doctor enquired why he thought so.

The man started to relate how he felt because of his experienc....
this and that and how people looked at him, and their opinions, and .........

When the session ended.
The man turned to the good Dr. and asked .
What do you think?
The Dr. replied , well,
You do not have the complex.
you are truly inferior.

regards

PS: I am sorry for some of you that cannot follow the directions I am going towards now.
And I empatise with you, cos' I am going many directions at once.
Every piece of info here is part of a puzzle.
I am rushing time.
The hand holding is off, This is the deep end.

I promised Leighsww, the insights to the training, and I will deliver.
If people want to learn , and not ask questions or discuss,
well, thats your problems and I have little time left before my vacation.
by the end of the week I would have given you
a nearly 2 year course of training, in less than a month.
If it suits use it .
otherwise I don't know what else I can do for you.
Wait till I show you art of war. Then you'll really have a headache.
But actually its quite straight forward if you have been following
and asked or discussed where you didn't understand.

For those that cannot make any logic of the MM I showed.
Here is an alternative methdology, and its time tested and proven.
http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/
I cannot say that it is better than what I have tried to show you.
But at least their track records were impressive.
Its a MM automated system trading methodology.
Will it continue to work, surely I don't know.
But if you people is gonna risk money on mechanical systems, At least this one professional.
time tested, hard to follow, and free.

regards

Oops, they re asking for money now.
let me give you my file.

Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 3:35pm
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  #425  
Old Dec 9, 2007 2:13pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Northpro,

The truth is you don't have to give up your indicators, as in never using them.
Sure, if they can add to you insigts to the market, do use them.
But dont flash them on the screen, and be watching them instead of your naked prices dance.
Keep them hidden. Make them references when you have trouble feeling the markets.
Peep at them for that adjustment for market form.
But don't risk your money on them, Risk it on YOU.

But my experience have been , when I dance well intune to the markets, I really don't want to have these indicators ,create for me any confusion, and disrupt my dance. When you're in the wind , you just glide with the flow.

Northpro, you're a rider. When you're on a run do you watch your speedo? probably peep at it a while, but do you have to watch it when you can feel it.


regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 2:27pm
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  #427  
Old Dec 9, 2007 3:48pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fti View Post
Hi ALL,
For those that cannot make any logic of the MM I showed.
Here is an alternative methdology, and its time tested and proven.
http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/
I cannot say that it is better than what I have tried to show you.
But at least their track records were impressive.
Its a MM automated system trading methodology.
Will it continue to work, surely I don't know.
But if you people is gonna risk money on mechanical systems, At least this one professional.
time tested, hard to follow, and free.

regards

Oops, they re asking for money now.
let me give you my file.
Make no mistake, the styles very different from mine.
But this guys tech is big boys style.
but it kills waiting for the buses.
So for die hard, Mechanical system traders,
here it is.
Be reminded that this is for trading Futures contract, not Spot Forex.
There are some differences.
In a nutshell
trading break outs with a strict MM plan.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf turtlerules.pdf (251.2 KB, 1103 views)

Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 4:02pm
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  #434  
Old Dec 9, 2007 7:28pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Zoran,
Your chart 1
Self explainatory.
Expecting weakness and accelerated speed selling on test of support.
But your wedge colouration blinded the selling tops,cos you would have a upbreak of a downward wedge.
Now you see how the preconceived pattern blind sighted your perspective.

regards
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  #436  
Old Dec 9, 2007 7:40pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi Zoran.

Now fron this continuation chart, you can see that truly the support gave for a speed seller .and we are nearing syupport. There is no evidence that a bottom is found yet .So the exposure must be reduced
as we enter the Support time window where more clues will surface.

The important point was how important the waiting into the right top was.
Where a compounded stepping top form to reverse the market into a full bear.

It would now behove the trader to start looking for clues in his short chart for likely strength points, whereas still in shorts , such activity should be kept to minimal until further sigs of weakness should appear, as we consolidate into the support zone. If longs were attempted , it must be on short tenure and never to be held over night, although mkt seems deep already the bear is not dead yet.
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  #437  
Old Dec 9, 2007 7:51pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post

The point is ... there is no predicting any outcome of any situation. The market will go where it wants to go, and even previous patterns cannot dictate or make certain an absolute result.

As deaths in accidents are pretty much random, so is that of the forex market.

We do the best we can, to try to lessen the odds of getting killed, that's all.
Yes , Leighsww,
The market will go where it wants to go.

No, no,no, Do not try to lessen the odds of getting killed. Instead you must have the mindset to do whatever it takes to WIN. Not having it kill you. The negativeity must be removed from the mindset in totality lest it allows you yto create it. But of course with strong MM in play likelyhood of being killed should be negligible. Althought there is still that possibility, The mindset must not yield to such thinking.

Any buses along lately?

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 9, 2007 8:07pm
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  #445  
Old Dec 9, 2007 10:11pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

How come you don't re analyst after moves?
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  #447  
Old Dec 10, 2007 3:04am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fti View Post
Hi ALL,


The whole MM is wrapped in those numbers.
Some might see it, most will not.
To work it, there are some prerequsites.
It has value only when you can incorp, it strategically with the artof war MO.
Hi Zoran,
Pls read the quoted again.

regards
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  #448  
Old Dec 10, 2007 3:17am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post

fti, just a question.... do you trade in one direction only or do you have positions open in both at the same time?
Hi Zoran,
I dance in one direction, when there is determined trend.

Dance in both directions, where ranges when no predominant trends exist. To stretch the range.
This is a little tricky and the strategy requires adequate capitalisation.
The foundations for the MM is in the table provided, of course, for the bank, the pockets were very deep. For traders, I suggest milder or adjustments to accomodate risk appetites.
The MO is provided in the Art of War.
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  #450  
Old Dec 10, 2007 3:38am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post

Ok, so I initially saw the above as something to do with position sizing. That could be part of an MM tactic. Position size for consecutive losses is gradually decreased so as to limit it within a certain percentage whereas winners are gradually increased, to improve profitability.
The only way to manage a win and a loss position is by size snowballing.
There is no other way. One increases the profitabilty bottom line and the other a recovery protocol. The MO you will find in Art of War.
This is a capital game, therefore no alternative are possible.
Its the, I have a bigger one competition.
The the relativity of the size snowball is important that over-extension in % counts can kill the biggest fish in the water.

Although we can use MM strategies, we still need to be able to peg that to the mode of the prices we are attempting it in.
During High volitility sequences the MO would defer from low volitility sequenses.
This is where the trickiness exist, because your ability to use it effectively will determine the the extent of the effeciency, and this reflects the bottom line.
So in this context, there is no compromise for experience in safely executing it and trader mindset robustness.

regards
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  #451  
Old Dec 10, 2007 3:43am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by babyfx View Post
Hi fti, i enjoy reading your thread tremendously. When u were working for a bank, were you able to see order flows from other institutions?
When there, I could see all of my book as well, the major books in the market due to tier 1 networkings.
Why do you ask? The extent where anyone can see the market place is always dependent on who your friends are, isn't this so in all fields of endevour?

regards

Hi ALL,
The far east USD markets seemed to have dozzed off today, wonder if the London boys will be waking up at all, let alone NY. So Back to snooze now.
cu
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  #452  
Old Dec 10, 2007 4:02am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default The Wild and Free Pigs of the Okefenokee Swamp

Hi ALL,
I had typed out the exploration sessions up to friday , then going for my vacation.
But since the markets are so letargic. Heres something to chew on.

A lesson in habit training & stupidity.
The Wild and Free Pigs of the Okefenokee Swamp
by Steve Washam based on a telling by George Gordon
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Some years ago, about 1900, an old trapper from North Dakota hitched up some horses to his Studebaker wagon, packed a few possessions, especially his traps--and drove south.

Several weeks later he stopped in a small town just north of the Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia.
It was a Saturday morning--a lazy day--when he walked into the general store.
Sitting around the pot-bellied stove were seven or eight of the town's local citizens.

The traveler spoke, "Gentlemen, could you direct me to the Okefenokee Swamp?"
Some of the old-timers looked at him like he was crazy.
"You must be a stranger in these parts," they said.
"I am. I'm from North Dakota," said the stranger.

"In the Okefenokee Swamp are thousands of wild hogs," one old man explained.
"A man who goes into the swamp by himself asks to die!"
He lifted up his leg. "I lost half my leg here, to the pigs of the swamp."
Another old fellow said, "Look at the cuts on me; look at my arm bit off!"

"Those pigs have been free since the Revolution, eating snakes and rooting out roots
and fending for themselves for over a hundred years.
They're wild and they're dangerous.
You can't trap them. No man dare go into the swamp by himself."
Every man nodded his head in agreement.

The old trapper said,
"Thank you so much for the warning. Now could you direct me to the swamp?"
They said, "Well, yeah, it's due south--straight down the road."
But they begged the stranger not to go, because they knew he'd meet a terrible fate.
He said, "Sell me ten sacks of corn, and help me load them into the wagon."
And they did.

Then the old trapper bid them farewell and drove on down the road.
The townsfolk thought they'd never see him again.
Two weeks later the man came back.
He pulled up to the general store, got down off the wagon, walked in and bought ten more sacks of corn.
After loading it up he went back down the road toward the swamp.

Two weeks later he returned and, again, bought ten sacks of corn.
This went on for a month. And then two months, and three.
Every week or two the old trapper would come into town on a Saturday morning,
load up ten sacks of corn and drive off south into the swamp.

The stranger soon became a legend in the little village and the subject of much speculation.
People wondered what kind of devil had possessed this man,
that he could go into the Okefenokee by himself and not be consumed by the wild and free hogs.

One morning the man came into town as usual.
Everyone thought he wanted more corn.
He got off the wagon and went into the store where the usual group of men were gathered around the stove.
He took off his gloves.
"Gentlemen," he said, "I need to hire about ten or fifteen wagons.
I need twenty or thirty men.
I have six thousand hogs out in the swamp, penned up, and they're all hungry.
I've got to get them to market right away."

"You've got WHAT in the swamp?" asked the storekeeper, incredulously.
"I have six thousand hogs penned up. They haven't eaten for two or three days,
and they'll starve if I don't get back there to feed and take care of them."
One of the old-timers said,
"You mean you've captured the wild hogs of the Okefenokee?"
"That's right."

"How did you do that? What did you do?" the men urged, breathlessly.
One of them exclaimed, "But I lost my arm!"
"I lost my brother!" cried another.
"I lost my leg to those wild boars!" chimed a third.

The trapper said, "Well, the first week I went in there they were wild allright.
They hid in the undergrowth and wouldn't come out.
I dared not get off the wagon. So I spread corn along behind the wagon.
Every day I'd spread a sack of corn.

"The old pigs would have nothing to do with it.
But the younger pigs decided that it was easier to eat free corn
than it was to root out roots and catch snakes.
So the very young began to eat the corn first.

"I did this every day.
Pretty soon, even the old pigs decided that it was easier to eat free corn,
after all, they were all free; they were not penned up.
They could run off in any direction they wanted at any time.

"The next thing was to get them used to eating in the same place all the time.
So, I selected a clearing, and I started putting the corn in the clearing.
"At first they wouldn't come to the clearing. It was too far.
It was too open. It was a nuisance to them.
"But the very young decided that it was easier to take the corn in the clearing
than it was to root out roots and catch their own snakes.
And not long thereafter, the older pigs also decided that it was easier to come to the clearing every day.

"And so the pigs learned to come to the clearing every day to get their free corn.
They could still subsidize their diet with roots and snakes and whatever else they wanted.
After all, they were all free. They could run in any direction at any time. There were no bounds upon them.

"The next step was to get them used to fence posts. So I put fence posts all the way around the clearing.
I put them in the underbrush so that they wouldn't get suspicious or upset, after all,
they were just sticks sticking up out of the ground, like the trees and the brush.
The corn was there every day. It was easy to walk in between the posts, get the corn, and walk back out.

"This went on for a week or two.
Shortly they became very used to walking into the clearing, getting the free corn,
and walking back out through the fence posts.

"The next step was to put one rail down at the bottom.
I also left a few openings, so that the older,
fatter pigs could walk through the openings and the younger pigs could easily jump over just one rail,
after all, it was no real threat to their freedom or independence--
they could always jump over the rail and flee in any direction at any time.

"Now I decided that I wouldn't feed them every day. I began to feed them every other day.
On the days I didn't feed them, the pigs still gathered in the clearing.
They squealed, and they grunted, and they begged and pleaded with me to feed them--
but I only fed them every other day.
Then I put a second rail around the posts.

"Now the pigs became more and more desperate for food.
Because now they were no longer used to going out and digging their own roots and finding their own food,
they now needed me. They needed my corn every other day."

"So I trained them that I would feed them every day if they came in through a gate and
I put up a third rail around the fence.

"But it was still no great threat to their freedom, because there were several gates
and they could run in and out at will.

"Finally I put up the fourth rail.
Then I closed all the gates but one, and I fed them very, very well."
"Yesterday I closed the last gate and today I need you to help me take these pigs to market."

The price of free corn.
The parable of the pigs has a serious moral lesson.
Markets have the skills as that trapper.
Remember your MO, and purpose.
If you are scalping, beware the gates.
If you are trading, then do not run too far off your norm.
If you cannot hold on to your intended prtocol and MO, then you will be caged by the market , sometime.
If you ever get into that position as a trader , you will have to fight tooth and nail, just to get out of it.
REMEMBER, you have been warned.

Sun Zi's :
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 10, 2007 4:17am
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  #454  
Old Dec 10, 2007 4:38am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gene22 View Post
Fti, a question to the above post if I may.
I beleive I understand the snowballing effect and the profitability as it relates to the bottom line. Now as far as a recovery protocol goes, based on what you wrote that would be a reverse snowballing effect, am I correct in that assumption? If so than it makes total sense, if on the other hand you meant the same snowballing effect in recovery protocol than I would asky you if you could eleborate just a bit so I could be clear, thank you in advance.
I repeat.
The only way to manage a win AND a loss position is by size snowballing.
There is no other way. One increases the profitabilty bottom line and the other a recovery protocol.

Snowballing your positions in a win situation to to enhance and stretch the profits in the book.

Snowballing in a loss situation is very tricky,
The trick is to stay on the front line, and not allowing the market to run too far away from you for effective salvaging the bad . Therefore averaging of cost is the main component in this MO. Later in Art of War you will learn that to save 1 bad postion , you will need a squad. Therefore the timing is critical and the terrain whereby this is allowed to occcur must be manageable. This MO must be given sufficient thought , well parametered and executed swiftly on running battle sequences. If any possibilities of failure were to present itself , the whole exercise have to be abandon. So use it wisely. Under the strength of unlimited capital, this activity will dig you out of the holes , a trader might find themselves in. But traders do not have unlimited resource as with banks, if this protocol is adopted then much preparation is necessary, in terms of the limits of the parameters is concerned.

Remember that every loss you swallow, based on the WW tables, will put you off geometrically. So to a trader a 10 cts profit is a 10cts profit whereas a 10cts loss is not exactly that, its more. To keep books healthy, loss taking is a very detrimental exercise.
Try to be profitable , a small profit is better than a very small loss, by leaps.

regards

for viability, you must understand, the martingale, fibonacci and log arithmetic spirals. Their workings, the empirical formulation and their characteristics. The secret working lay in the pi & its skew.

Last edited by fti, Dec 10, 2007 5:51am
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  #456  
Old Dec 10, 2007 4:50am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by babyfx View Post
Just want to know....and are you still able to see order flows now since you still have connections? oh.....can i be your friend too?
In Banks they have built up "China walls" to block all info flows. Unless you can walk thru walls, there is no chance of that happening.

Alternatively you can master, pip movement reading skills, read, Edwin's book "Reminises of a stock operator" , If you have enough experience, it tells you stories of the under-current.

Contacts out of the core circle is not useful, so you may not want to be my friend anymore.LOL

regards

The london boys, they're awake.
sorry guys, dinner date, BB

Last edited by fti, Dec 10, 2007 6:16am
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  #462  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:06am
fti
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Hi ALL,

@ Zoran,
I see you are not new to damage control.
Bringing books back to flat, that even is an uphill task.
So you can understand my concerns, that if inexperienced traders ( even experienced) did that regularly, cos' I taught them to. They may fall into the class of traders that add to losses, and thats not right.

Damage control is the hardest to impliment. Of course we can stay off that,
but then the maths will work against us.
So how can it be implimented safely,
If I ever discover , how to make money without taking risk, I will share with all,
But for now, thats the only way to save book. (There's no other way)
Thats why I am very carefull about casually taking trade positions.
One will never know when , the rescue is required.

Of course if we are so good that, every trade is a walk in the park. Then why bother.
In reality , this cannot happen. Most gurus I have come across, just advocate , cutting the loss. Get on with the next profitable trade.
But in reality unless , such gurus have no real experience,they wouldn't just say that, like if it was their money. They next trade may just be a repeat.
If traders won 50 % of all their trades and lost 50% , the net result is probably a drain of close to 25% of capital. So in effects trading is not such an easy thingy.

Sun Zi said.
"A general who has not fully mastered the art of extemporaneous responses may know the terrain like the back of his hand, but will not be able to exploit this to his full advantage."

"He wins his battles by making NO MISTAKES. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated."

I, having been a pro, have survived by making little mistakes.
Small mistake are corrected to become small gains,
Big mistakes, I have sacrificed my time energy and resilence,(sometimes fighting huge battles over 2 to 3 days without sleep to recover from) to overcome and come out flat.
Of course there have been mistakes taht were unrecoverable from.
but I make them relatively negligable in contrast to the annual profits in my book.
I owe it all to right mindset, guts, good MM and strategic thinking.
Most of all unwavering dedication, as this is was rice bowl. (bread & butter, if pleases)
How then, can I teach ( this ) to those that yearn to learn, it is very uphill task, but I am trying.

Like some of the dealers , I have trained have remarked,
if the possitions is rotten, get fti, he'll fix it.
But the truth is I am only I, the best I can do is train a few good ones,
the rest I will have to leave you, in your own battles,
Hoping that what I have said to you have given you the foundation to spring from, cautiously.

Like I have mentioned , when you are young in the trades, start small build slowly and prudently. It an ants job.
If you think that with your money you can come into forex and take as you wish, I emplore you to think again, carefully.
Draw a line , ride the trend moves, Truly easier said than done.

To ride day positions, is good when you have already nested big profits as foreign capital to risk.
Unless you can make good decisions, in the short term,
I would wonder, how longer term decisions making can be more accurate.
Ultimately we trade in the short term, even if positions were to be held for the longer,
they are still filled in the short term.

The only difference is that in the longer term positions, as you mention, you cut out the "noice" of short term fluctuations, by providing a larger pain threshold.
If the decision was wrong , a longer term perspective would still be wrong.
Hope, may help survive the position, but thats left to the gods to decide.
No form of analysis or decision process is infallable. Risk is just that risk.
My feelings is better to be wrong, in the short term, and try to correct that in the longer term when necessary, than to be wrong in the long term and be immobalised.

God's truth ,"As above, So Below"

In the short term positions, there is the short fluctuations,
similarly for longer term positions, they have their fluctuactions as well.
But for me I feel that the short terms is less painful, when mistakes are made,
and can be carried over to the longer term for re-analysis, re strategise and recovery.
There is no wrong or rights, only mindset, objectivity and ability to cope.
This tempered with proper foundation in managing risk and the wisdom of knowledge, should stand us in good.

Yes MO= Modus operandi

Whether I will present Sun Zi's Art of War is not decided yet.
This literiture is an ancient manual of wisdom and is freely available.
If you google it, there are numerous copys and interpretations of it.
If God willing and time permits, I may try to show you a read of the text from my perspective.
Nevertheless it wouldn't harm if you first read it in your leisure to have a glimse of the wisdom within contains.

What I am presented in terms of the MM is already very dangerous, to the uninitiated. Coupled with The Art of War Strategies & Strategems , it becomes very potient material.
I have to decide very carefully, if its reveiling is appropriate.
(or whether parental and senior citizens guidance may be required, LOL)
Please have patience , while I ponder this issue.
Howerver , I have given within this thread, enough material to keep much of you busy until the turn of this decade. I hope you will read carefully esp where there are things between the lines,and give it due thought and consideration and practise, as I grapple with the issues.

Your empathy is much appreciated.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 10, 2007 11:20am
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  #463  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:07am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by valterroque View Post
I have been reading you posts from beginning, and I found them the best stuff that i have read here in FF. I must say that I am not good English speaking, so sometimes have a little problem understanding some of your story's, I maybe understand better when the apply to charts. Anyway i have ordered the books that you recommended because i really want to understand and learn how to trade in forex and other markets. If you have the time to teach us who am I to not have the time to read your posts (10X) if its needed to understand. THANK YOU so much for your efforts.

Towards everybody that is participating in this threat a want to tank you all , for sometimes asking the questions that i cannot formulate myself.

Towards Leighsww, thank you to for convincing FTI to teach all of us.

Kind regards
Valter

@ valterroque
Thank you for your kind words.
I hope the thread may be enlightening for you in your quest.

regards
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  #465  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:11am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Could you please clarify this? I can see that loss taking can be detrimental so it could be carried and snowballed so long as it is in the direction of the continuing trend. Is this what you are referring to as you would expect your unrealised loss to eventually come good. However, could this also distract from taking other positions? Would you take a position in the opposing direction (or hedge)?

However, I can see the danger in this also as some wrong analysis could snowball into a disaster. There must come a point where a bad position is closed. Do you have any rules of thumb? Such as 1% or 2% of an account?

Finally, is there an ideal initial position size? I can see the turtles had a forumla to calculate this. Do you have anything similar?
@ Zoran,
The answer is yes and no.
When a position is snowballed, as in this case progressively,to catch up with the front lines, the risk and exposure entails.
Therefore such strategies should only be used when there is potential of squaring looking forward. I give you and example.

If I was to trade a 5 min time scoped position
and it gets it self into miss timing the dance, it would be in a loss.
The only way that this position can be salvaged is if the hourly time scope has presented opporyyunity for a possible salvage attempt.
Otherwise any attempt to snowball the position would only serve to its own detriment.
If the time scope opportunity presented it self only in the weekly tenure,
it would be better to "bite the bullet" and take the pain. (loss)
So in reality there is a limitation of whether snowballing should be attempted and to what parameters (ie what type of annual profits are already in the bag, which we can utilise as risk capital).

As you so rightly pointed out , if snowballing was effected, It would have to be in the prospective trend direction, otherwise , such opportunities would never have surfaced.

Please do not think that all bad positions should be salvaged.
There are some trades that are not miss timed , but rather off trend and totally sunked.
It would be fool hardy to even entertain the notion of trying to save such pridictcament.

In terms of rule of thumb,risk parameters,
I used to work within the scope of 50% of annualised book profits and or 10% of my trading lines which ever was larger.

There is no ideal formulation for risk adventure,
but most pros work on the basis of dividing the risk capital,10X
and then a tenth of that resultant. which puts the initial exposure in a pittance state.
And most of us do not use leverage as basis calculus.
However if leverage was utilsed, it should reflect the principal at risk rather than the value at risk basis.

For traders of retail Forex, most of our calculus would be unacceptable.
As Leighsww may have mentioned , that I did a demo experiment and I doubled a 50,000 account in 24 trades trading sparingly with a 100% R/R.
I later did a risk to ruin analysis and found it unacceptable.
So I opened another account and did the trade to acceptable Risk of ruin,
and made average 1.30 cts a day, which humoured Leighsww till she was rolling on floor.
Sometimes over a 24 hr period I made 30 cts.
I am now using a 100,000 account with increased ruin factor and am still experimenting daily to find that equilibrium.
Just for info, I have now factored implied volitility into the formulation.
So in fact I am yet inconclusive.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 10, 2007 11:32am
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  #466  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:28am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemien View Post
Yes, I was wondering why you didn't pull out at that point as well (the new resistance as FTI has drawn). Do you move your stops to cover new support/resistance as it appears? 10pips or so the other side should have been your max loss..

Just my .02c worth

D.
@ Daemien,

If I was in the position,I would have attempted, without stop loss orders.
but rathertrying to cut that loss with attempting to liquidate as per where i pointed out.
There would be slippage in that exercise, and with my accrument, its highly possible that the slippage would be in my favour, mostly. If stop loss oredrs were placed it is of high probability of the sweeps taking good positions out without regards to market pulse reading.
And the slippage if any whould normally be against the trader.

By the way , which pair was that?

regards
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  #467  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:42am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gene22 View Post
Allright, thank you, see your point. Had some sussesfull battles using this concept, but to be honest never thought that I was doing the right thing. I do use the snowballing to maximize profits, I actually try to use Gann's square to judge the move and the strategic possibilities, golden spiral as well. Got the point about the skew, makes total sense, thanks.
Hi Gene,

I see you have fougt those undeserving , scary battles as well.
Averaging market killings is good, huh
Make you feel on top of the world, after the whole exercise.

Doesn't your squaring Time/Price, plots and the spiral plots get in the way, for the market feel?
For me it breaks my chart up into Quadrants and make very unrelistic feel.
Like fighting in a boxing ring.
I am glad you understood , about the sk.
You are quite experienced trader, no?

regards
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  #469  
Old Dec 10, 2007 12:13pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi David,

I m glad for you, that these postings are helping you, consolidate your trading form.
Keep it up friend.
In future, please don't call me Master, makes me feel uncomfortable.
( Like in Igor the Hunchback, yes master, hahahaha )
Look at it this way , I am a trading friend.

regards
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  #496  
Old Dec 10, 2007 9:40pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
wow, making pips hard business, managed to capture some, but the price isn't worth the dang sufferings. I get the weird feeling that the market wants to go on vacation too. LOL
I haven't got to answering some post yet, will do that later.

Anyways,
I truely think that if you read what I have given already.
You don't need me to do the AOW thingy.


Just for deeper understanding why don't someone quote the Sun Zi wisdoms, One by One and dissect it's true meanings.
Leighsww, You made me show hand, and I learned about yoiur tough love thingy,
so hows about some tender loving assistance.
I think there are some experienced people here, and some very interlligent people here, Between all of you, I would like to think you should find the way..,,,

Leighsww,
I tell you What, I'll give you all the titles in my studies.
And you can lead all here to fill them up with Sun Zi wisdoms.
Don't start now wait until I finish my stories, won't be long.

Any Suggestions from the floor?

I have done the Know thyself part and heres the Intro.to the Art of War.

regards
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  #497  
Old Dec 10, 2007 9:42pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default Sun Zi Bing Fa ( The Sun Zi Art of War )

Sun Zi Bing Fa ( The Sun Zi Art of War )
---------------------------------------
Ssu-ma Ch`ien has to tell us in this chapter.

Sun Tzu Wu was a native of the Ch`i State.
His ART OF WAR brought him to the notice of Ho Lu, King of Wu.

Ho Lu said to him:
"I have carefully perused your 13 chapters.
May I submit your theory of managing soldiers to a slight test?"
Sun Tzu replied: "You may."
Ho Lu asked: "May the test be applied to women?"
The answer was again in the affirmative,
so arrangements were made to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace.

Sun Tzu divided them into two companies,
and placed one of the King's favorite concubines at the head of each.
He then bade them all take spears in their hands, and addressed them thus:
"I presume you know the difference between front and back, right hand and left hand?"
The girls replied: Yes.
Sun Tzu went on:
"When I say "Eyes front," you must look straight ahead.
When I say "Left turn," you must face towards your left hand.
When I say "Right turn," you must face towards your right hand.
When I say "About turn," you must face right round towards your back."
Again the girls assented.

The words of command having been thus explained,
he set up the halberds and battle-axes in order to begin the drill.
Then, to the sound of drums, he gave the order "Right turn."
But the girls only burst out laughing.
Sun Tzu said:
"If words of command are not clear and distinct,
if orders are not thoroughly understood, then the general is to blame."

So he started drilling them again, and this time gave the order "Left turn,"
whereupon the girls once more burst into fits of laughter.
Sun Tzu:
"If words of command are not clear and distinct,
if orders are not thoroughly understood, the general is to blame.
But if his orders ARE clear, and the soldiers nevertheless disobey,
then it is the fault of their officers."

So saying, he ordered the leaders of the two companies to be beheaded.
Now the king of Wu was watching the scene from the top of a raised pavilion;
and when he saw that his favorite concubines were about to be executed,
he was greatly alarmed and hurriedly sent down the following message:
"We are now quite satisfied as to our general's ability to handle troops.
If We are bereft of these two concubines, our meat and drink will lose their savor.
It is our wish that they shall not be beheaded."

Sun Tzu replied:
"Having once received His Majesty's commission to be the general of his forces,
there are certain commands of His Majesty which, acting in that capacity, I am unable to accept."

Accordingly, he had the two leaders beheaded,
and straightway installed the pair next in order as leaders in their place.
When this had been done, the drum was sounded for the drill once more;
and the girls went through all the evolutions,
turning to the right or to the left, marching ahead or wheeling back, kneeling or standing,
with perfect accuracy and precision, not venturing to utter a sound.
Then Sun Tzu sent a messenger to the King saying:
"Your soldiers, Sire, are now properly drilled and disciplined,
and ready for your majesty's inspection.
They can be put to any use that their sovereign may desire;
bid them go through fire and water, and they will not disobey."

But the King replied:
"Let our general cease drilling and return to camp.
As for us, We have no wish to come down and inspect the troops."
Thereupon Sun Tzu said:
"The King is only fond of words, and cannot translate them into deeds."

After that, Ho Lu saw that Sun Tzu was one who knew how to handle an army,
and finally appointed him general.

In the west, he defeated the Ch`u State and forced his way into Ying, the capital;
to the north he put fear into the States of Ch`i and Chin,
and spread his fame abroad amongst the feudal princes.
And Sun Tzu shared in the might of the King.

Apologies for War
----------------
"All one can say is that this power
will be exercised wisely by some, foolishly by others, and
that among those who bear arms some will be loyal and others
rebellious."
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  #499  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:41pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post

Are you intending to go over some technical analysis you follow? Like some basic chart patterns? I am not familiar with your stepping tops. Your M and W patterns remind me of some harmonic patterns I follow although yours seem to form from double tops and bottoms.

Thank you once again.
@ Zoran,
To go over all chart patterns would be a tedious and drawn out process of reinventing the wheel, I think I will pass, as there're heaps of material in the market and I believe most students of that persuit should have background knoeledge of most of them.

My dissecting your chart was to highlight to you of the error of drawing and colouring them as you do, could blind-sight you in new patterns that are forming. Its best to keep analysing to see whats forming as we go along.

Using the predictive aspects on the charts is to me a fallacy.

M tops are actually double tops and W bottoms are double bottoms,
There are variants in their interpretations as there is also comparision of the left hand and right hand peaks and valleys.
Stepping tops and bottoms are basically recuring confirmations of the on going top and bottom developments of the patterns accordingly. There's so much more, but experience in reading them will develop over time.
Moreover my dealing room lingo, may be alittle sexist. As we have terms like heavy tops, solid bottoms, long legged ladies...............

Are the CBs in the market , who knows?, but after the publicity of their lip interventions, I would presume by their normal MO that they are checking the market, sometimes.
But there is no announcements yet.
If they actually came in to intervene, reuters would annouce and confirm their actions after about half and hour after such activity.

Right shoulder formation or not, I just follow and strategies accorddingly, if happens fine (make a bomb), if don't, I go on looking for new developments.
The analysis in never stagnant, its an on going batttle process, and with every new piece of info on the charts , the battle plan adjusts to assimulate into it. and thanks for you pips, you actually quoted my joke, LOL

Tried a few platform,
I like the FXCM one for order book convenience, but I didn't like their quotes and technical analysis format.
The MT4 is good for tecnical analysis, but the orderbook is less versatile., esp where you have to change orders manually one by one and cannot liquidate positions all at once. Moreover inability to join bid and offer prices is a real disadvantage to active position managing.
The oanda charts is primitive for analysis, but seems good for order book as well.
The EFX navigator seems primitive as well, but their quotes are tight. And charting is outsourced, so causes unnecessary expenses for charting service. I think they charge bro, so defeats the tight spreads advantage.
There are many I haven't tried, now I am demoing in MT4.

regards
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  #500  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:45pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL

@ piphitman
yeah naked and deep end is good, but then either swim or sink, huh
You like the challenge?

@ m@2t
you seem liking analysis of events, aso neh, read Paper Money, it will open your horizons.

@ Leighsww,
Yea, public kinky spanking session. Get him mama san.
Don't keep counting your $$. Gotta help some people, huh.
You know some things I have discussed hands on ,so give them some insights, la.
Easier said than done, right?

regards
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  #501  
Old Dec 10, 2007 11:50pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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hi All,

@ Porkpie
I am the type, that have ZERO tolerance for losses, if I can help it.
It doesn't matter if its small profit or big profit, but loss ??? ahh get out loss.
Absolutely ZERO tolerance for loss.

For me a bad dealer makes , small profits.
a good dealer makes consistantly small profits,
a great dealer kills markets with broad sword,
God profits always.
Only the foolish lose money.

Its alright to be a fool, when we are starting out, or learning the process, to stay that way, all I can say is the CIRCUS's THAT WAY BUDDY. LOL

Sorry,if I seem harsh. But believe me, I even stayed up 24hrs to nurse position even just to recover demo pips.

Porkpie, I have to point out that you have much mistakes in your mindset, that the liars have taught you.

1. There is no such thing as "a method" that can give you edge against the market, its "you" that can cut an edge from the market.

2. Frequently,cutting losses is just a way to reset, and starting the game afresh.
You collect enough of that, you may never come back to the real world.
Of course , we shall not keep fighting for lost causes.
Sure sometimes losses are unavoidable.
But if you harbour that losses is ok, then you're are being blinded.

I advice you, if you want to get your discipline right,
"damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential , victory is the objective." for every trade.
Win enouggh small battles and tweak you mindset , then go win the war.
If you depend on someone else or something else ( high and migthy systems ) to do it for you, then you will become an "arm chair general" to your quest.
Unfortunately we are dealing with real $$, it is for the now, not some computer game.
There is no reset button and start again. Every battle is the continuation of the last.
Every battle must make you better, for the next, if you fail to develop, you shall be road kill.

Sorry for the way , I sound .
I mean good.


@ webfoot,
Sorry for the misunderstandings. My bad. (dealers arrogance)
Being Catholic, snakes, god's most beautiful angel samuel (aka Satan) and the likes hits a vein with me. You're good man, but don't snipe short directionless arrows, beware of mistaken "friendly" return fire.

Trade well, friend.

regards
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  #503  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:01am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post




Okay, wait a minute ... how about you make Zoran the first concubine ... errrr, I mean, thread leader and after he gets beheaded due to people's bursts of laughter, then I take over as new leader. Yeah, that sounds like the better plan, no? :
Look I can email you the table of contents, ie MY Sun ZI thingy.
You have had hands held experience, so you ROUGHLY know.
You don't havr to tell them all our little secrets, just guide the SUN ZI thingy.
In my absence, and let them figure it out themselves.
No chart analysis , no setups or how to trade or read and all that stuff.
Just what Sun Zi says and discuss the interpretations.

I learned how I do it from there, So I guess anyone can find it.
A liitle thinking is required, though.
Lets see what type of horses , is built.
Maybe you could come up with something that beats me.
Then you can pubiclly and kinkyly spank my bottoms, LOL

How's about that?

regards

PS:How can lesson ever finish, Its a life long thingy.
Even i am still learning.
I ll come back after the vacations and see if we can study more.
if God premits............................
ok?
another 2 more stories and Im done.
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  #506  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:19am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Okay, okay, sheesh!! I help wherever I can, but people you guys call me arrogant or condescending again and I'll whip your bottoms!! : (I promise, my intention is never to sound that way, lol. I just have a "mommy" attitude thingy (ACK, I guess I gotta spank myself now, lol))



ACK, Antra, you want spanking too?! lol
Ah HA, caught you, just called yourself mommy.
Now you have to spank you own sexy bottoms in public.

Lets get the crowd to watck, LOL rolling.

regards
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  #514  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:52am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M@2t View Post
Hi Mr. Fti, thanx 4 adv. but i'm sorry i dont understand what is Paper Money? Is it a book? and where can i get it, could u explain.
Thanx again.
Hi m@21

Paper Money by Adam Smith copyright 1981 by George Goodman, Dell Publishing Co.

It touches on about the economic histroy of the US, and the money thats driving FX and what money is all about from the authors perspective. The fundamental stuff, (no technicals)
for foundational Forex grounding.

regards
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  #518  
Old Dec 11, 2007 6:26am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi Porkpie,

I am sad to hear of your loss.
May I enquire your mindset.
Did you watch after your positions while you traded?
Where you over geared in terms of your MM?

I trade on 5min charts, some times to 15 min charts, if I go to 30 mins charts
that mean I am in drawn out battle already.
Its either I am deep in trying to recover a bad position or I am deep deep in profits
and applying the rod to the markets.

I have traded for close to 26 years and daily I have mostly made money for the banks.
I have demo for more than a month now and have not lost one single session.

I have a deep suspision that you wasn't dancing with the market
but was taking chances on pre-conceived analysis instead.
Try reading this whole thread again slowly. You may recognise your problem.

I got this funny feeling from reading your response
that you were running a mechanical system with rigid take profit levels.
But you might not have managed your risk
and you were probably trading from position emotion, and against the major trend.
Am I correct?
Otherwise you must have been over exposed in MM.

Your MO does not feel anything like mine, except the fact that you do not have stop loss,
but if you did not have stop loss and you do not manage the exposure,
then I would say that you had been reckless.
How much experience do you have in trading & Technical Analysis?

Give more details, I would like to analyse your blotter if suits.
and do read this thread carefully.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 11, 2007 6:37am
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  #520  
Old Dec 11, 2007 7:03am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi gene,

I think you are mistaken.

While I was at the bank , I made markets teir 1.
Yes, the orders from customers are also part of my profit MO.
I cover those orders by covering in the spot interbank,
and slippage is a component of my profits protocol.
You see I make markets and the market is where I make it to be.

The use of 5 min charts only started in 1987/88 when a service known as telerate.
started to provide compterised data feed on the markets based on ASAP page, before that I used manual drawn charts and the reuters IDS and info system, telex, international fx broker boxes as well as direct link lines to our tokyo, dusseldof, london branches only for market access.

regards
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  #524  
Old Dec 11, 2007 7:57am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I'll risk my head and become the thread leader but as part of my self preservation, I expect you and fti to pass on the all important knowledge first. I've always found that teaching has given me a deeper understanding of knowledge.

fti, you cannot leave us completely. Enjoy your break but you'll have to come back and share some wisdom, even if it's on the odd occasion.
Hi Zoran,

Thanks for risking your head.
The truth is I have given in this thread,
all my thoughts and the training I have acquired,
the knowledge, the direction. I trained my self with less when I first started out.

The only things I have not given , is my charts which is the bare price charts,
which is a lot less than what most people look at.
And my exprerience in trading.
And frankly I don't know how I can teach that.

I have hand held Leighsww in a few live trading sessions over the net,
while I managed positions and she watched me tame the beast on her computer,
half a world and time zone away.
and she ask questions on why I do this or that, from my blotter
and thru that she tries to learn.
She has gone on to adopting what she has learned and I think she's making some pips.

So In all , the important knowledge is already been given in the threads.
Short of starting a trading institution, I don't foresee how I can train traders and trade for myself,
Now that I am retired, you may notice that my energy levels are not par excellence.
So when I came here , and thru coaxing from Leighsww,
it dawned on me that I could impart the knowledge, for people that may like to learn my ways,
but may not know where to start. So here it is.

After my vacation with my family, if what I planned comes alive,
I would be actively trading, and when I am on the real $$, you will not hear much of me,
as I tend to be very focus on what I am doing, esp in markets.
Like someone discribed, dealers in battle gear.
You may find that you may have to wait for ages to have your questions answered.
I hope you can understand.

My plans is to create a dealing arena of my own, after the vacation.
So the question of, if I can commit to the distraction to help others while trying to get that up properly.
All I can promise you is perhaps.

Short of making everyone a carbon copy of me, my trading MO is all here.

regards
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  #527  
Old Dec 11, 2007 8:49am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi daytrading,

In the mature part of my career I was treasury head before my CEO thingy.
I made prices between 30 to 50$ on all the 4 majors.
more active in USD/DM my favourite girl.
For customers up to 100$
The bulk of the dealing was interbank thru reuters IDS.
But this compared to my tokyo and London is nothing to shout about.

I do remember that you were from the Europe sector.
We do support the brokers with prices for the other tiers.
My senior dealers handled the fx broker boxes.
So you would probably had heard us thru your counter party in Sg.
For your sectors, I think the major activity were name switches.

Personally, I had a couple of seats at SIMEX , which I rented out while at the banks.
Now that SGX had taken over the exchange, and had gone electronic,
my seats were converted to SGX shares that have given good yields.
Since retirement I do dabble in the Nikkei225 and Taiwan indexs futures contracts.
We did supported SIMEX in their spot currencies contracts, but the customer liquidity was not condusive.
Since retirment, done nothing in the Forex until now, that I am exploring the possibilities.

For my personal Forex adventure, I guess I 'll be on the majors.
esp EUR/USD as she supposed to the grown up USD/DM.
probably USD/YEN for time zone convenience.
for me cable and chf, the thin wild ladies, probably do crosses there,
if the opportumities surfaces. Maybe if the Gold markets starts some things.
The chf crosses would be interesting.

You have good market experience, why not share some insights to help some people here.
Have you dealt with Muku, the DM king before in your days?
he dealt for BCI spore.

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 11, 2007 9:17am
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  #528  
Old Dec 11, 2007 8:58am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piters View Post
Hi Guys..

Please check this site. AOW ebooks

http://www.ebooks.com/SearchApp/Sear...2Art+of+war%22


cheers
Hey guys . there's no need to buy. lah.
Its in public domain.

Free copies at these sites.

The Project Gutenberg Etext of The Art of War by Sun Tzu
*****This file should be named suntzu10.txt or suntzu10.zip*****
google it.

http://www.afpc.asso.fr/wengu/wg/wengu.php?l=Sunzi

http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html#01

http://www.idph.com.br/conteudos/ebo...art-of-war.pdf

And I think in many languages, afpc have for french I think.


regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 11, 2007 9:29am
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  #530  
Old Dec 11, 2007 11:04am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default A Lesson about important things in Life.

A Lesson about important things in Life.
Courtesy of a certain t-genius I knew.
--------------------------------------------
by Robert Pearson

She was six years old when I first met her on the beach near where I live.
I drive to this beach, a distance of three or four miles,
whenever the world begins to close in on me.
She was building a sandcastle or something and looked up, her eyes as blue as the sea.

"Hello," she said.
I answered with a nod, not really in the mood to bother with a small child.
"I'm building," she said.
"I see that. What is it?" I asked, not really caring.
"Oh, I don't know, I just like the feel of sand."
That sounds good, I thought, and slipped off my shoes.
A sandpiper glided by.
"That's a joy," the child said.
"It's a what?"
"It's a joy. My mama says sandpipers come to bring us joy."

The bird went gliding down the beach. Good-bye joy,
I muttered to myself, hello pain,and turned to walk on.
I was depressed, my life seemed completely out of balance.

"What's your name?" She wouldn't give up.
"Robert," I answered. "I'm Robert Peterson."
"Mine's Wendy... I'm six."

"Hi, Wendy."
She giggled. "You're funny," she said.
In spite of my gloom, I laughed too and walked on.
Her musical giggle followed me.
"Come again, Mr. P," she called. "We'll have another happy day."
After a few days of a group of unruly Boy Scouts, PTA meetings,
and an ailing mother,I wondered.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The sun was shining one morning as I took my hands out of the dishwater.
I need a sandpiper, I said to myself, gathering up my coat.
The ever-changing balm of the seashore awaited me.
The breeze was chilly but I strode along, trying to recapture the serenity I needed.

"Hello, Mr. P," she said. "Do you want to play?"
"What did you have in mind?" I asked, with a twinge of annoyance.
"I don't know, you say."
"How about charades?" I asked sarcastically.
The tinkling laughter burst forth again.
"I don't know what that is."
"Then let's just walk." Looking at her, I noticed the delicate fairness of her face.
"Where do you live?" I asked.
"Over there." She pointed toward a row of summer cottages.
Strange, I thought, in winter.
"Where do you go to school?"
"I don't go to school. Mummy says we're on vacation."

She chattered “little girl” talk as we strolled up the beach
but my mind was on other things.
When I left for home, Wendy said it had been a happy day.
Feeling surprisingly better, I smiled at her and agreed.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Three weeks later, I went to my beach in a state of near panic.
I was in no mood to even greet Wendy.
I thought I saw her mother on the porch
and felt like demanding she keep her child at home.

"Look, if you don't mind," I said crossly when Wendy caught up with me,
"I'd rather be alone today."
She seemed unusually pale and out of breath.
"Why?" she asked.
I turned to her and shouted, "Because my mother died!"
and wondered why was I saying this to a little child?
"Oh, she said quietly, 'then this is a bad day."
"Yes," I said, "and yesterday and the day before and--oh, go away!"

"Did it hurt?" she inquired.
"Did what hurt?" I was exasperated with her, with myself.
"When she died?"
"Of course it hurt!" I snapped,
misunderstanding, wrapped up in myself. I strode off.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A month or so after that, when I next went to the beach, she wasn't there.
Feeling guilty, ashamed and admitting to myself I missed her,
I went up to the cottage after my walk and knocked at the door.
A drawn looking young woman with honey-colored hair opened the door.

"Hello," I said, "I'm Robert Peterson.
I missed your little girl today and wondered where she was."

"Oh yes, Mr. Peterson, please come in.
Wendy spoke of you so much.
I'm afraid I allowed her to bother you.
If she was a nuisance, please, accept my apologies."

"Not at all -- she's a delightful child."
I said, suddenly realizing that I meant what I had just said.
"Wendy died last week, Mr. Peterson. She had leukemia.
Maybe she didn't tell you."
Struck dumb, I groped for a chair. I had to catch my breath.

"She loved this beach so when she asked to come, we couldn't say no.
She seemed so much better here and had a lot of what she called happy days.
But the last few weeks, she declined rapidly...
" Her voice faltered,
"She left something for you ... if only I can find it.
Could you wait a moment while I look?"

I nodded stupidly, my mind racing for something to say to this lovely young woman.
She handed me a smeared envelope with MR. P printed in bold childish letters.
Inside was a drawing in bright crayon hues
-- a yellow beach, a blue sea, and a brown bird. Underneath was carefully printed:

"A sandpiper to bring you joy."

Tears welled up in my eyes and a heart that had almost forgotten to love opened wide.
I took Wendy's mother in my arms.
"I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry,"
I muttered over and over, and we wept together.

The precious little picture is framed now and hangs in my study.
Six words-- one for each year of her life --
that speak to me of harmony, courage, and undemanding love.
A gift from a child with sea blue eyes and hair the color of sand
-- who taught me the gift of love.

*********************************** *************
NOTE: The above story is true.
It serves as a reminder to all of us to live life to the fullest.
Live everyday, as if it will be your last, one day it will be true.
For today, be the best you can be.

regards
fti

Snadpipers - Chotto Matte Kudasai

Last edited by fti, Dec 12, 2007 5:23am
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  #535  
Old Dec 11, 2007 12:40pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by skeptical1 View Post
If you believe prices are the sum of the human emotions, then I have a compelling explanation. If pollsters can predict US presidential elections with an acceptable degree of accuracy, why can't technical analysts?

The answer may lies in assuming the markets are 2-dimensional (prices and time). What if it has more than that. The universe is now generally thought to have 11-dimensions. So why not financial markets?

This is the assumption, I had in 2002. After 5 years, I can now give you an answer. Financial markets definitely have more than 2 dimensions.

I took two approaches (assuming the multi-dimensional model) and both gave been consistently close readings i.e. the markets' emotional levels can be measured just like polls. It is like the stochastic and RSI giving similar readings.

This is definitely not the holy grail, but it allows you to read the markets better. Like any sports, if you can read the game well, you have a decided advantage. The rest is on your execution.

I do not want to be accused of spamming, you can verify my claims by using your data and my software which can be found at

Rgds
skeptical1,

Without even looking at your software and your abilities,
I can make an educated guess of your intensions here.

1, You need money.
either to fund your research
or
to fund your trading.

2. You have no trading skills and canot fend for yourself in the markets.

3. You think you can catch some desperate suckers here to help you out financially.

Let me give you a piece of advice free, you do not have to subscribe to my advisory service.(like you are offering yours)

1.Read this thread and go learn how to trade and make yourself self supporting with skills and stop peddling snake oil for a living.

2 If you have no fund available for risk taking, go find yourself a decent job, and try to save up enough for a stake .

and please remove that link from this thread because I don't think anyone here wishes to be executed, as per your suggestion.

Wishing you learn to be a decent human........

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 11, 2007 1:56pm
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  #537  
Old Dec 11, 2007 3:40pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
WoW, what a truly touching and moving story

And for anybody who can't relate this to trading ... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol :
Hi leighsww,

What was that about???huh???
... go tell your charts you love them and see what happens, lol

You're sure it'll repond? you promise? cross your heart?
I think the crying getting to you,huh?

Heres the follow up to your story,

Garth Brooks - "If Tomorrow Never Comes"

enjoy
regards

PS: Are you trying to cope out of the positiona as head concubine,,,eeer leader by faking in-sanity?#%+-
I traded all night and day now, for demo pips, so if anyone's "one flew over the nest" , should be me ,no?

Last edited by fti, Dec 11, 2007 4:20pm
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  #547  
Old Dec 12, 2007 4:07am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,
At last,
I ve been withour electricity for 10 hrs, power lines went down.
Lucky they're up again. Wow.
But I am enjoying lots of line dropping, even the fan works funny.LOL

So like I promised Leighsww, here last installment.LOL
Sound like finance Co.
So after this will the 2 head leaders ,please fall in place.
and will all the rest of concubines, please fall in in a neat row behind them for drilling.
Dancing Classes Begins.
Dance masters please !

regards

PS : One word of advise.
If you refuse to dance with the lovely concubine leaders,
Then when I decide to send out my interpretation of "Art of War" .
You no get dance details and instructions, LOL
Hey Fti is that a threat?
YES. LOL
Actually No, if you don't do the dancing, instructions mean nothing.
Really. Believe me.

Last edited by fti, Dec 12, 2007 7:22am
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  #548  
Old Dec 12, 2007 4:32am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default A Lesson about Your Learning curve.

A Lesson about Your Learning curve.
Courtesy of a certain t-genius
--------------------------------------------

A man found a cocoon of an emperor moth.
He took it home so that he could watch the moth come out of the cocoon.
On the day a small opening appeared, he sat and watched
the moth for several hours as the moth struggled to force
the body through that little hole.

Then it seemed to stop making any progress.
It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could and it could go no farther.
It just seemed to be stuck.
Then the man, in his kindness, decided to help the moth,
so he took a pair of scissors and snipped off the remaining bit of the cocoon.
The moth then emerged easily.

But it had a swollen body and small, shriveled wings.
The man continued to watch the moth because he expected that,
at any moment, the wings would enlarge and expand to be able to support the body,
which would contract in time.

Neither happened!
In fact, the little moth spent the rest of its life crawling around with a swollen body
and shriveled wings.
It never was able to fly.

What the man in his kindness and haste did not understand was that
the restricting cocoon and the struggle required for the moth to get through
the tiny opening was the way of forcing fluid from the body of the moth into its wings
so that it would be ready for flight once it achieved its freedom from the cocoon.
Freedom and flight would only come after the struggle.
By depriving the moth of a struggle, he deprived the moth of health.

Sometimes struggles are exactly what we need in our life.
If we were to go through our life without any obstacles,
we would be crippled.

We would not be as strong as what we could have been.
Give every opportunity a chance, leave no room for regrets.

------------END---------

Good Fortune to ALL.

regards

Fortune surely favours the thinking brave.
No Guts no Glory.

You are on your own now,
Stay Straight and Fly Right.

Nat King Cole - Pretend
Nat King Cole - Smile
Linda Ronstadt & Nelson Riddle - When You Wish Upon A Star

Last edited by fti, Dec 12, 2007 4:52am
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  #555  
Old Dec 12, 2007 10:37am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ David,
Actually Leighsww , can answer your question, and since I am still around.
I do the courtesy,

what is the most fresh fooprint? the line charts, right,
as you go up the time scale, the closest fresh footprints would be?
if you get into trouble with the 5 min foot prints, then you have to zoom out , right?
so what is the best outward zoom you can get?
If you still in trouble you keep zooming out to see bigger picture, right?
when you keep doing that you will ultimately come to day and week, right?
As you zoom out to reaccess your risk, your MM will keep snowballing on you.

So if we reverse this process what is the possible scenerio?
What is the impact of day analysis and then going in?
How far depends on "YOU" and your capitalisation.

(Don't think because you use 5 min charts you cannot trade day positions.
Only that the short charts are giving you freaher clues of what this woman is doing.)

But if you have to zoom out to daily charts , probally your initial positions are already sunk.
and the Money required to sustain is normally way beynd your capacity esp if you are leveraged.
So whats the safest tenure?
Least painful will be?

When you are in profits, you also want to zoom out to see if you can ride ,right?
So what is the strategy, MM, MO now ?

Lets say you bad, are zooming out and if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters"
So what must you do? If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right?
When this happens , what is the mindset to adopt? If you decide to fight instead,
you are trading against the trend, so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO?

Remember when you try to turn "on wind again" you work against the law of motion.
What does newtons law of motion states about the law?
Think thrust & distance.
If you decide to turn, WHERE do you look for that fresh timing?
and if you use $$$ to turn,how much ground must be lost before the turn is effective?

Understand the WW tables.
When risk snowballs , what is the best alternative.

Even if turning is the way to go to flow back into the trend, Whats the purpose?
Whats the MO supposed to be?
You try to use attack MO and the MM WILL kill your portfolio.

David , Don't think six sense, these things subjective.
Use clear objective thinking, and "feel her".

I hope I explained clearly. The only other way to show you is to hand hold you in trading.
Lets see , but now no time, sorry. Dance with Leighsww, you may learn there. She's now quite good dancer.
Try to understand Sun Zi Bi Fa ,the answer is there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
55851Hi fti

So when does your holiday begin? I was at a Christmas party last night and have a bit of a sore head today. I don't know how you managed to trade the next day after some heavy alcohol sessions. You mentioned it sharpened you up but the only thing I get is a sharp pain in my head. But my analysis does tend to improve whilst under the influence.
@ Zoran,
For me , now waiting for queen bee to arrive with my rascals.
When they arrive , we party. Frankly , easier to read market than Queen Bee.
To learn "Drunken fist technique" gotta drink every day, not one day.
Don't go there. LOL


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
55851
Just some questions before you leave. I understand you mainly trade on the 5 min. What do you do to determine the trend direction? Can you also summarise what influences your decision to enter and exit a trade? What do you look for? Do you ever have targets or just ride it for as long as you can?

Thanks again.
No Zoran, I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners.
I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her.

"Feel Pulse"
Those ladies with heavy tops or bottoms move bouncy & slowly
Long legged ladys are very firtitious and wild.
Those that have long shadows are normally tall and very volitile.
Those introverts that coil up normally spring surprises.
Those that spread themselves out normally have no substance..........better stop the dealers lingo!
Try study chart compound patterns.

I will guestimate targeted duck zones, but I am no god.
If I can feel or see flow is much more accurate
I am not so sharp as Robinhood also.

Have a nice dance with Leighsww.
Careful, she naked, so don't be funny.
She normally brings her whip ! LOL

regards

David Lanz - Return to the Heart

Last edited by fti, Dec 13, 2007 5:00am
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  #559  
Old Dec 12, 2007 12:40pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gene22 View Post
Fti, if I may pose a question to the most recent events, and the new liquidity bailout scheme by the Fed and the rest of central banks. I would love to hear your take on this if possible. I was half expecting something nasty (PA) after yesterday's rate cut, but this in my opinion is really a last cry for help, there is a credit bubble, it had started to burst at the seems already, but instead of trying to diflate it slowly, there is more money being pumped in. Now, the holes can only get bigger and as the more money is pumped back in I only see one possible scenario, a big boom.
Perhaps I'm biased and not assesing the situation correctly, your view would be greatly appreciated.
Hi Gene,

It is difficult for me to say if the Feds are handling this right.
My opinion, I shall based on the experience on the bubble
that the Japs had nearly 20 years ago.

The US bubble have not burst.
We are right in the middle of the situation now and they are trying to avoid a burst scenerio.
This is what's causing the infaltion, driving the energy sector.

I do not feel that the Feds are crying for help.
There arn't any possible short term bail outs solutions.

What the feds are doing is firstly damage control.
cos the situation is basically sub prime loans.
So they are easing rates to lessen the burden on the borrowers,
(remember these borrowers have little expandable resources)
so as to avoid the chance of a the borrowers bellying up on their loans
and becoming non performing.

They are also releasing more money into the market to tame the credit crunch
that may occur, as lenders clamp up, due to lower rates for holding on to the USD.
They look forward that the multiplyer effect may soften the tightness for cash.
Although this may have longer tenure inflationary impact as well as a depreciating USD purchasing power parity,
they plan to arrest the after effects to spread over a longer time span to avoid a immediate depressive state.

Their next move when the turbulance settles down
would probaly be the direction the Japs took in the 80s.
And that is to extend the loan tenure (over a generation or two if necessary) for the borrowers.
This will stretch the burden of debt for the borrower and allow inflation to defalte whats left of the bubble over time.

Over time, although value of the USD may erode and thats actually good for industries to repositioning their competitiveness corp strategies. It should avoid that the bubble should damage the economy as a whole.

Just my 2 pips

regards
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  #584  
Old Dec 14, 2007 5:42am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,

For those of you trading live on MT4.
BEWARE, yesterday.
very frustrating bug, or
programmed error subroutine, don't know
"trade context busy" error.
Errors inhibit changing orders, in fast markets.
Then at critical turn point in the market.
Keep getting "no connection" error for attempts to hit market,
while line is ok for all other internet activities.
Then things goes back to normal and can hit,
after market shades 10+ away from critical zone.
Something smells.
profit & loss difference big $$.

Broker demo is Alpari UK.

SYSTEM RED FLAGGED.
Trading against computer program???
Queen bee not arrived yet.

regards
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  #586  
Old Dec 14, 2007 6:13am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,

@ Islander,

Your suggestion is possible.
Do not have time for ODL demo now,
Will condider after holidays.
Scary though, if they can switch off.
If interbank broker does that, box off for 1 month and until their bosses can rectify situation.
Probably box handler get head chewed off.
Still scary though.

Thanks
regards

PS:@ gene , yes
Don't go there , MO inconplete yet.
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  #588  
Old Dec 14, 2007 6:44am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
and AGAIN today, dirty bast--ds
Attached Thumbnails
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Last edited by fti, Dec 14, 2007 7:26am
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  #592  
Old Dec 14, 2007 7:11am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ pipal,
Thanks for advice,
Hope you learn to dance well.

@Zoran.
Requoting on fast markets is acceptable,
Marketmakers also don't want to be sitting ducks for our shooting them.
Even interbank , we move fast, in fast market situation.
But if switch off, to deny trader of market access.
That for me SUPER RED FLAG.
totally unacceptable, already traders got problem of net-lines and isp.
Plus platform deny access for trading, might just as well give then the $$,
no need to trade.
I speculate, but I suspect they may have switched off receiving orders.
I sure hope not, then broker trust is so vital.
How to find professional brokers seem like big peoblem.
If get professional executioner to trade with, might as well be in death roll.
Even super trader would be executed, wonder are they executing order or trader.
At the bank, Forex brokers cannot play with us, If they try to be funny.
They can close shop. 1 tier1 bank off box all buddies also off box.
Maybe, no size get bullyed, then size matters in retail, huh.

I am not familiar with retail brokers.
demo many already, still doubtful.
Thanks for info

regards

Last edited by fti, Dec 14, 2007 7:30am
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  #596  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:28am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

@ bobblong
Thanks for kind words.
The problem is all are at different levels,
So I guess have to do it step by step.
My problem is time constrains.
Leighsww has been very kind to help, thanks Leighsww, Hugs,

So have patience, all will get there, but step by step, to be organised. OK.
Even she is learning new stuff.

@ chfjunkie
Like I said all are at different levels.
My question to u is, why are you trying to ride th whole waves?
Can you catch every tops and bottoms?

As trader you just want to make money, thats all.
Managing positions is the key.
That's why banks pay so much $$ for people to manage the risk.
Otherwise they can buy a super computer to trade , its so much cheaper.

You are not correct in your assumptions.
there are a variance of a million ways to manage the positions.
It depend on trader mindset,MO, expactations, greed, fear, riak tolerance and market conditions.
Even amongst dealers this vary.
Just check you own trade records, even you,manage differently at different modes.
So its not clear cut into camps.

Jake is a good cyclical trader. He trades like 3 to 5 times a year.
The other times he sells seminars. Larry, like jake sells writings.
Their MO is investing , its differnt.
Thats why they don't use syops, they manage from afar.
Its differnt from trading without stops MO in that sense.
To each its own.
If you want to trade as investor, and have deep pockets,
go buy or sell the physical USD/currency and wait.
If you profit, the ROIs are invertor range. If wrong treat it as bad call. It cannot go to zero.
Go do you business and make money then add to investment again.

If you trade with stop loss, mostly become sitting duck paper.
If stop is far away serves no purpose. If too near market gets swept.
Chances is markets will fill you, Only question is when.
If you like fish head & tails, OK.
Sorry can't have the cake and eat it at the same time.
There are more than one way to skin a cat.... sorry Antra my bad.... tiger,
If you want see how pros do it, then.......

Just 2 cts.

regards

@ Zoran,
Thanks , noted.
Seems the brokers are not on the ball for retail customer.
Maybe a Retail traders association should be set up to deal with the errant ones.
They cannot operate , if bad ones are identified and traders don't trade with them.
Authorities can only do so much as to slap their hands , when cases appears with proof.
Anyway my intensions here was to check their market out. But this thread is about trader education, so follow along with Leighsww for your education.
I think we can leave the Brokers thingy to matured traders in 1kt to find solutions to.
I read a Forex-bastard website that trys to deal with the problem.
One question in my mind is why arn't these brokers operating in Sg. Its One big Forex center? WHY?

Thanks for help guys, Just wanted to hightlight a problem, if not already identified.
My quest continues, but for the moment, haolidays acalling.

Bye for now
Regards.
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  #598  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:46am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
The question sometimes is whether they are really playing with you or is it a legitimate network problem? Remember we are dealing with the internet here and not dedicated links. I'm sure you realise the interbank connection is based on many dedicated links and not the internet.

I have worked for many investment banks and a European counter party. We have millions of pounds worth of equipment to ensure resilience and dedicated links for reliable connections but even then, things still tended to go wrong but a lot more reliable than the internet. The counter party had millions of pounds guaranteed from the banks for compensation claims in cases where failures did not allow trades to complete. I witnessed this happening once.

Perhaps a broker somewhere in Singapore could improve your situation?
Hi ALL,
@ Zoran,
In many ways , you are right.
Banks spend a bomb , to get multiple market access avernues.
As they trade value spot, they are not dependent on one source.

But for retails, we are forced to one source and they even do not match B/S netting.
They use the corp word "hedge" so erroneously, should be FIFO. Traders cannot match off on book let alone inter broking netting of positions. This is because of margining. So looks like the retails markets are not matured enough for real trading yet. Maybe just gaming. I guess a lot of teething problems yet.

Thanks for info.

Gotta sign off.
Good Fortune.

regards
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  #610  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:06pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piters View Post
try www.dukascopy.com

regards
Hi ALL,

I am still waiting for Queen Bee, so I will chatty a bit here.
Sorry interuption , Leighsww,
Please no whiping. Don't want Queen Bee to think I 've been kinky.LOL

@ Piters
Thanks for link.
Just to let U know, days where brokers can charge around $20 per mio, is history in interbank,
You ask these people to offer these rates to banks and they may have to turn tricks for a living.
PLease don't go there, Probably thats the reason they offering to high end retail.
If you are actively trading the bro may kill you book.
Why do you think most of the volume is done thru Reuters IDS and direct?

Maybe some, from interbank broking may like to comment on this.
daytrader, could you shed some light on this for our info.
Do you know whats the going bro for interbank broking now?
Piters Thanks anyway for info.

@ Zoran,
I would like to ask you ,since you mention ECN.
ECN means Electronically Connected Networks, right?
If I am correct, I remember reading that they claim to link to spot interbank.
Since I came from Interbank teir 1 , I like to say that,
no spot desk in the world, would quote for the sizes, retail is trading.
The min ticket interbank is 5 mio USD, 2 mio USD through interbank brokers.
These ECNs would be lucky if they can get to the corp desks,
and for most banks, for 10.000 USD they would direct you to maybe counter 10 at the banking hall.

So I cannot see how these ECNs can be linked to banks esp the spot desks.
Having said that, I would presume that they run a bucket and are customers to the bank in hedging exposures.
So on this reasoning, I wonder, what's the difference between ECNs , NDDs to bucket desks?
Have you heard any Bank Treasury coming out to confirm that they are suppoting with prices.
Sure like to see the names.

Zoran, You mentioned that you have IvB experience.
In your career have you seen any USD$10,000 tickets before in spot interbank?
Even futures contracts are aprox USD1 lag.
Do you think I am wrong?

regards
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  #611  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:08pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
There are several good threads in FF but this one has got to be right up there with the very best. Not only because of the content's quality but also because the thread starter fti has actually put in lots of efforts to educate us in his ways and philosophies. Its certainly very refreshing from what others are doing. Give system teach system use system!

As what the Mastercard adverts would say "Priceless"!

I'm a little late to this thread but hopefully fti would be able to answer this statement which he had written in post 59

Quote

So if this market continues to go up. Then You miss the bus ( borrowed from leighsww) ,right? You missed the bus going north, why?
because you were at the bus stand waiting for the south bound bus, right?

...... You see, when bulls are making money, Bears are not.
When bears are making money bulls cannot.
But the one whos trying to catch both buses will sooner be dead. Crossing the road from one bus stand to another,
Because he could be at the north stand when the south bus comes, or the south stand when the north bus comes.
or mostly in th middle of the road, when both bus comes.

Do I make any sense?

Unquote

Yes, I understand where you are coming from but then again why can't a trader with valid reasons and context be prepared to enter on either the Long or Short depending on the markets tune? Surely, this is a mindset blockage. What is stopping us from taking the other side of the bus if we know our initial analysis is wrong or we are anticipating such action?

Why don't consider poems? Spreads are atrocious but at least you know they are reliable. On 2nd thoughts, you are on the 5 min charts....which makes a lot of difference. What about EFX or Man Financials? Anyone got comments on this 2?

p.s In Genting or Cameron highlands now?
@ sitoca
Thank you for your kind words.
I am sort of lost in your first question question.

For your second question.
It would be possible, that if you knew that you were wrong in the first place. that you would take a wrong trade.
You took the trade because you didn't know you were wrong.
By the time you realised that you were wrong , the market must have moved against you, right?
So you decide with whatever decision process that you should turn "into the wind".
If markets does retrace after you turn, you would be in another wrong bus.
or If the markets were in a congestion pattern you may continue to keep turning and keep getting on the wrong buses.
As matter of fact , after a few bad turns , you would probably be road kill.
Does this make sense now?
Can someone who can articulate this better, help me out in explaining this point clearly.

Phillips Poems , started as pioneering electronic order book for SGX and SIMEX trading.
Today, it seems outlived, in contrast to those available in the world.
Their focus in forex business, is underdeveloped. As you mentioned, their spreads are atrocious.
Would you like to trade on those prices?

Plaese provide me EFX's Sg contact, thanks.
You see when refco went down. the unemcumbered portions broke into 2 broker firms.
One is FXCM the other is MF Global (Man financials). They were supposed to use MT3.,
but I don't know what platform they are using. Seem no one knows last time I checked.
Maybe you would like to add your knowledge for my benefit?

regards
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  #612  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:11pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnat View Post
Hallo fti and fellows!

Please note one of my old posts on forexbastards: #436

This is not really a sound and balanced reference in any way.

I am also working on a good MT4 platform with ECN standards and am talking to the owner on skype from time to time. No promises here, but I guess he will get things done. They have reprogrammed the MT4 basis into C++ on their own servers and have a long term history on options and futures, so they also apply different standards already.
So far it seems possible to use MT4 or three other platforms on their servers with ECN spreads on large accounts. But he seems to be open to group solutions also. (I am not an IB ... I just needed something for ME fast as I completely share the dislike of fti on what they do to us!)
As soon as I get somewhere I will let people know. And there are no brokers in SG, Germany, France or Japan as the regulations would make their kind of game illegal I guess. So only with a sound background like Deutsche Bank they are going forward, but are not good at charting and are very expensive.

In fact I also looked at FXLQ until they were closed by the NFA. Therefor I am in for more due dilligence now on all the possible players.

Will keep you posted and will re-read a lot on the weekend to not get the whip here on the AOW .

Ciao
Gnat

Eidt: Best retail brokers out there seem to be based in the UK, as the regulation seems sound, but not too tight!
@ Gnat
I see that you may be aware of the shortcomings of the platforms for retail Forex.
Somehow from researching the issues ,
it seems to me that the platforms are not free from bugs & teething problems.
Since you're inside, Could you advise if these are in mode beta or alpha.
Seems alot of issues are not ironed out, but the platforms are trading.
I guess its all right for computer games, but for market access.
Big $$ and lives may be at stake.
Moreover the number of forex scams isn't helping.
And about ECNs ,Ndds,,etc.
I was wondering if there are backdoors in the platforms, as well as predatorial subroutines.

regards
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  #613  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:13pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gene22 View Post
Fti thank you for the reply, couldn't help it, wanted to be sure I grasped the clues correctly. Love the new picture btw. Will be quiet untill the time is right. For now trying this in demo mode. If I could compare the feelings that flow through me I would say this. I used to race semiprofessionally, specifically highly tuned BMW M3's. Was quite good at it. Could do amazing stuff. Than bought a Viper, just for fun on the weekends and an occasional track time. Being very confident and proficent, or so I thought, destroyed/totaled the Viper on the 5th time behind the weel, icredible feeling but the skill to be able to drive the beast simply wasn't there. Bought another one right away, but this time got to learn to respect it and learn slowly. But boy, what a thrill once you actually master it. Basically feel exactly the same way now, do rather well with what I know, and the tools are also pretty much the same, except a few tweaks here and there, but oh my god this a ferrari compared to what I'm used do, will keep learning and waiting for a real test drive, so far demoing is just fine, scary stuff to say the least though.

Regards
@ gene,
yeah, so better get the MM and MO coordination right.
The figures can avalanche if wrongly applied. Thats a very dark place, be aware.

regards
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  #615  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:15pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fierceman View Post
Try Saxo Bank (Singapore).

As far as other good retail brokers...

IBFX - excellent execution, no slippage, some requotes, occasional technical difficulties
EFX - superior execution, low transaction costs, but crappy trading platform

Hope that helps.

BTW, fti, I would venture to guess that your problems with Alpari were real technical issues, as it is not it in their best interest to screw around with demo accts... Hence the value of automated server-side entry/exit orders in the retail biz.
@ fierceman,
I did try contact saxo, everytime I go to their site, my system crashes.(The Blue screen od)
I don't know why neither do they.
Then they sent me a direct link to their clent download, but couldn't sign in.
Its like wanting to test drive a car at the showroom , but it won't start.
So what can I say.
Is IBFX and EFX operating in Spore?

I really don't know whats wrong with the Alpari incident.
It caused me to be unable to trade market moves due to a none responding platform.
In demo, I get angry.
But if this was real $$ positions,
may get dirty to claims.

regards
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  #616  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:16pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHFJunkie View Post
@FTI,

I'm not talking about managing trades, I'm talking about exits.Managing trades is another topic.
My question is which exit strategy is better from a money management perspective?!
I don't try to pick tops or bottoms, the money is made in continuation of trends.
I examine my track records and came to some instances where riding a trend would have compensated me and made my month.
as u know, pro traders make a big portion of their money in almost one or two trades in the year.
Remember when u said, whack them like there is no tomorrow!

BTW, Larry and Jake always use stops!
one of Larry's books ended in "always use stops" phrase and I have seen tons of studies about the effect of the size of stop losses on ur overall system performance in a certain market, and how it affects ur profitability.
sorry I may disagree with u on this point although I'm enjoying ur thread too much.
@ CHFJunkie
Its nice that you are enjoying this thread, but I much prefer if you understand it instead.
I think you may be a nice person.
But what you are asking me is really tempting my dealers arrogance to surface.
Let me explain and see if you can understand.

Actually what do you mean by exits. If thats not part of modus operandi.?
I don't get your point at all.
Position management ( entries , exits) is modus operandi.

This one's even wierder.
It's like asking me if its better to have butter or margarine with my bread.
My answer is this.
From a money management point of view, any exit strategy that allows you to be in profit is good.
Which is better?
How 's about you answer my question first.
With bread which is better butter or margarine?

chfjunkie, I really don't mean to be rude. but think about what you are asking me.

Look, as a matter of fact I don't know any pro traders, as you discribed.
The red jackets I know trade 500x more in volume (PER DAY) compared to the pros you mentioned trade per annum.
Let alone the dealers at banks.
So what are you trying to get at? I am baffled.

About Larry, since you are so into his styles, do write a letter to him, ask him how he used stop loss ,
what happen that he nearly went bankrupt, and ask him about "tradewins".
I think he may explain to his students.

And Jake is a cyclical trader, he enter trades based on cyclical time windowing, on his entry 1,2,3 rules
then stop-loss are inplimented GTC at way off charts,
and thats because he doesn't watch markets as he has to run his core business, education & seminars.

Further, both this traders are trading in the futures markets.
I am not aware of their involvement in forex.
And just because someone has an Advisory licence doesn't make the pro traders.
If these are pros , what do you call the thousands in the pits daily.

And your reading of tons of land fill about using stops,
well good go use them in the markets,
make tons of $$. Good Luck.
And Please do me a favour,
Go to any futures exchange near you, approach the red jackets in the pits
and tell them to put STOP LOSS orders.

I am gentleman, I can agree to disagree.

regards
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  #617  
Old Dec 14, 2007 8:17pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catshot View Post
To all that read and contribute,
I have been reading this thread and have great respect each of you.
I learning and learning. I have been trading as a hobby for about 3 years
I now I believe with the mentorship of everyone in this thread I will be able to turn a hobby into a part or full time job.
I will post questions and theories soon. I just wanted to introduce myself to the group.
Thanks to all of you for your help.
Catshot
@ catshot,
Hi, Thanks for intro.
Your callsign and you avatar, suggests that you're bird in floating tarmac.
If you are, can you please fall in with Leighsww, the naked leader and
her concubine bandits for the Sun Zi drills.

If you are wings, you better be able to recite that thingy backwards.
OR I may prompt felix to cat you into the blue.
So,Throttle up , Flaps full and trim, & thumbs for cat.

regards
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  #623  
Old Dec 15, 2007 2:55am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Hi ALL,

I have an anouncement to make.

Leighsww messaged me, that she shall not be gracing us with her charms for a while,
due to her loss of her beloved sister, in an automobile accident, this morning.

Not so unlike the sandpiper, she has brought much joy and happiness to many in this forum with her cheers.
Please share with me in my condolences to her and her family for their loss.
And praying for her recovery from her grief, to mingle amongst us again soon.

As for the freinds here who are still in the learning process of the Sun Zi thingy.
I hope that you will organise yourselfs and
find the inroads to the wisdoms in Sun Zi's writings, while I am away on holiday.
I shall be exploring on ways , of pointing you in the right direction.
And shall be posting it here for you when convenient.

regards
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  #710  
Old Jan 2, 2008 12:50pm
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default Hi

Hi friends,

Happy New Year, I just got back.
I 'll settle down in a while and lets see if there's anything I can help with.

regards.
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  #736  
Old Jan 7, 2008 3:50am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,

I'll continue with answering as many questions raised here during my vacation,

and follow up on the Su Zi education, since Leighsww has not covered that section of training and then into the MM & sp,,,, if suits.

regards
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  #738  
Old Jan 7, 2008 4:27am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Actually, I assume that every trade I entered is wrong until proven correct by the market hence I always trade defensively with lots of babysitting (monitoring).
In re[ly to #633
Thats the correct and most realistic stance to take, as a trader.
So if this was your mindset, what should your MM look like?
The answer to this question should carry you to the MM strategies for prudent trading. Doesn't it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Why not trade the currencies futures since you have done that before with the bank? Are you worried about the slippage?
Slippage is the least of my worries using the structured nature of futures FX markets . My major concerns are.

1. The liquidity of the markets.
Be aware that the bank, traded as liquidity provider to our futures desk who are corp members of the exchanges. So in reality I was privy to the true liqudity of these markets and I am not talking about general volume alone.

2. The non 24 hrs nature of the fx futures markets also will mean that part of market action will not be avail to you as a trader. This would restrict your markets access depending on your domicile of operation.

3. The cost of clearing trades and brokerage, as a non exchange members will prove to be the achilles heel for active trading.

regards
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  #739  
Old Jan 7, 2008 4:54am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Hi Fti,

You mentioned that market makers move markets for various reasons such as stops sweeping....etc

From your experience or knowledge, what is the largest move in pips that is artificially created by them?


When is the period of lowest liquidity which makes it extremely easy for them to do it?

Is it true that liquidity tends to dry up during the Summer as well as in Dec - (think you have explained the Dec one before) ?

regards,
I think you may have mis-understood.
My mentioning of marketmakers sweeps is not to imply that this is done to manipulate the markets.
Be clear, that, the function of marketmakers is to provide liquidity.
ie. providing the market at large , with a price to buy and sell , at all times, while under his watch.

To carry out this function, he would have to use the sweeps to create market movement and to create liquidity to extend the swings, seeking out price levels of least resistance.

Marketmakers do not create artificial pip moves, where-ever they move towards, thats where the market is.
Remember that they drag along a ball and chain of a tail of 2 to 5 pips where-ever they go, which can be targeted by the market participants. So there is no possibilities to make a market where its not.

But problem arises when unscrupulous non marketmakers start to quote the screen of spot interbank Forex ( reuters ASAP), without the intension to deal at the quoted levels. ( their intensions are ??? ) but some are truly fatfingured typos not captured by the system filters. The marketmakers knows who are the true markets and ignore these wannabes and typos, as they can see "name". The price put up by an insignifivant party like db woud be ignored altogether but the data streams that collect the info cannot tell the real from the err. so you make your own conclusions on the reliability of your data stream.

Liquidity is not the thrust factor of the directional sweeps of a marketmaker.
The thrust factor in market movement is predominantly the cluster size of stops and the trail of ("self-feeding") stops triggering.
New supply of trades entering the arena that the initial thrust may create makes it a wildcard at best. No one can knows before hand, of how the sweeps may pan-out. Although marketmakers may have a small scope of forward sight as alike the headlights of a car travelling at night.

The basic consequense that liquidity may play in these scenarios, is in the slippage of the fills that the customers orders will be filled at. This is due to the ability/inability of the corp-desk dealers/brokers, in their ability to hit, fast moving marketmakers.

I hope this clears some issues for you.

regards
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  #740  
Old Jan 7, 2008 5:11am
fti
member
 
Member Since Nov 2007
Default

@ Green_David

Thanks, my friend for your praises.
Fearing that I may be blowing my trumpet too loud,
but I used to be with the cream de la cream of the business.
Now but just a burnt-out candle.
When a trader travels thru this Quest, they' ll undestand.
Was nice that you saw the hints.
Be mindful that you just rode the 1st loop of his rollercoaster ride, more a coming.

Just a little help since you are on the markets live. The fundamental backdrop has not changed signifiv=cantly since dec 07, what is evident is that many Cbs are at, the defend the dollar front, due to vested interest in the oil prices. (Oil is traded in USD) So look for continued trend in USD weakness, but look out for the CB lurking in the markets. They are operating in stealth mode so be nimble. Move like the wind, don't be sitting ducks.

@ MickD
You seem to be getting close to the working theoriticals of the training.
You need more hands on practise , the more practise you get the clearer it will become.

@ sizzler
You got the dollar cost averaging correct.
The surgical way of doing it, I direct you to what Green David said in thread 698 reqouted below

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green_David View Post
Dear Zoran, MickD and Syres,

Thank you for keep this thread alive before fti continues teaching.

As for loss rescue, fti suggests two methods:

1. If the position was desirable, then more capital will have to be put at risk
and a rescue of the badly timed position must be effected.

2. If any mitigating factors, disallows for such to be effected, the trader should
bite the bullet, and put the position out of its misery,
until it may be advantages to reinstate.

No other subjective thoughts must enter to his mind to hamper the managing of the position.

(Please see post#179)


So snowballing is only one alternative.

I will cut loss if I am trading against the daily trend AND the hope of retracement to rescue some loss impossible. Because that trade is not a wrong timing, it is wrong direction! In such case, snowballing loss can potentiallly become loss-averaging, which is a bad speculation practice.

Just my 2 pips.

David
Learn to be able to distuinguish between a wrongly timed trade and an ego trade. Please do not misaken that the ego trades are intentional, to understand that reread the scorpion and turtle story.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 7, 2008 5:36am
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  #743  
Old Jan 7, 2008 6:23am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
The strategy is fairly simple. Follow the trend and enter on retracements (of significant high and low points). If the retracement goes further than expected, then add at the next level (fti's snowballing - eg. add at 50%, 61.8% and 88.6%). If that fails (ie, goes further than 100%), move onto the next timeframe to determine other points and possible recovery routes. If the trend continues then keep adding on retracements.

Of course, practice helps.
This seems feasible, for good MM.
only that you are required to dance ! remember?

Zoran & ALL,
Ponder this.
What does the words martingale, fibonacci progressions and log arithematic spirals suggests.
What are they categorically ?
What is their relationship with price?
And whats their relationship with size?

regards
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  #744  
Old Jan 7, 2008 6:31am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Syres View Post
Vinn, I'm sure you have a proper reason to think as you do. I'm sorry to hear that it's not working for you.

I respect what FTI and all other great people have contributed here. As I'm not very good at reading the reasoning behind a mind, I have to ask you to help me to understand you better.

What part exactly is a mind twister? Maybe we can help to explain because surely there are others with same questions as you.

You seem to be quite knowledgeable about how to teach people about trading. May I ask about your method of mentoring? I'm sure you have shared your vast knowledge somewhere on the web, do you mind pointing where we could see your method of teaching people to trade, please?

I'm sure you have read the whole thread, but it's so long that it's entirely possible you have missed that info, so let me humbly remind - FTI went on vacation with his family and promised to be back on new year beginning. Maybe I have confused the days and years somehow, but I'm pretty certain it's not 2008 yet. Even Christmas is yet ahead not to mention new year's eve.

About the Star guy - don't dwell on past as it's an obstacle on the way to moving on.

Advising somebody to "get lost" shows only lack of self control. You're not obligated to read this thread, so you don't have to stay around here. If it makes you mad, then I can only suggest you follow your own advice, please.

Wishing you all the best,

Syres.
Thanks Syres, you are a stand up person.
Much obliged to your chilvarious action.

It's sad, but in this world, there are many like vinn, who believe themselves learned, not realising that thay have contributed little of their knowledge.
But its so easy that they can see the spaek in the eye of others and not seeing the log in their own eye.

I tend to leave these people to their own ways, cos, the wisdoms of time have taught me that, these will continue to learn and relearn the lessons that they have to learn, again and again until they get it right. Such is the will of God. Until they come to terms with their egors, they shall make little progress.

tks Syres for your assistance to vinn & the likes of.

regards.
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  #745  
Old Jan 7, 2008 6:55am
fti
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@ Beartrade
Thank you beartrade, you articulated your mindset well.
You seem a good trader.
Good fortune.

@ gene22
I wish you speedy recovery from your illness.
Then come on and tell us about your fibo views.
I may like to bring your thoughts to a different level.
But do let the people get the Sun Zi AOW right first.

@ Jairo
What you have described is similar to dollar cost averaging.
Your discription of staying within the thin red line (fighting zone) is good.
This can be a fesible MM.
What you may not have considered is the "dance".
Thats key.

regards
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  #746  
Old Jan 7, 2008 7:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asyi View Post
Hi there, Since no one has responded to your questions I will attempt to shed a little light on some of your questions.

#1 "Brains behind the Forex" Implying that there are brains behind this market would mean that there are reasons for price movements and logic in determining the direction of the movements. Someone once said, "If you have traded the forex long enough you know that logic and reason don't always matter." This (I believe) is one of the points of this thread - technical analysis doesn't always matter and if you put your faith in it and depend upon it you will become very disappointed and your account will be a little less. Even your SS of 533 on a 15 min. will at some point in your trading become a curse and you will have to default to your hope indicator for recovery. I would imagine that your success with SS 533 is totally dependent upon your entering the market at the best period of time, i.e., when the activity, the value of transactions, is the highest.
But, eventually you will be "Fooled By Randomness". But, we all are, and to that I say, "Welcome to the Forex."

#2 Never buy anyones system. Develope your own through hard work and much study. A system that works for one person doesn't necessarily work for another. There are many good systems at Forex Factory, demo them all and then develop your own.

#3 I never trade more that 20% of my margin at any one time. I start out with one trade and make sure it's in the money before adding to it. I'll continue adding to it until it becomes invalid or reaches my target. By starting out with one trade with one currency pair, if the trade goes against me, and I'm absolutely positive that my entry, according to my system, was correct, I'll just sit on it and wait until it turns positive. After all our goal is to make money. Last Thursday 12/27 I went long on a GBP/USD at 08:15 EST at 1.9940. I absulutely knew with 100% certainty it was going to go up. I was looking for 20 pips. It went up to 1.9958 and started back down. I just sat there watching going over by approach and reasons I entered the trade long. I began looking for some support and found it around 1.9870. My system said go long, what's happening? At 11:00 the candle started up. I could either add to my position or turn off the computer and do something else. I just hate to sit and stare at the computer so I decided to turn it off and come back later. My target was only 20 pips and my entry was based upon a system I have used for over three years. I came back around 1500, my trade had hit its limit with a positive 20 sometime around 1400. You must know why you place a trade and in which direction it will go and what your target is before you enter the trade. And then you must have confidence in your own system. Continue to read, and study all the forums at Forex Factory and you will become a good trader.

Best Regard, ASYI
@ olorunloniem
I concur with asyi in his advisement to you.

except this statement.
"You must know why you place a trade and in which direction it will go and what your target is before you enter the trade."

This is because there is actually no way to know what your targets are in any trade attempt. Active position management is recommended for profitability. Try to understand the meaning of "the dance." ie market form reading.

Further. I add these for your education.
1. Understand that it is impossible to predict the future.
The only way is to yield into it with appropriate strategies.
Leave predicting future to the fortune tellers.

As the markets are made up of the buyers and sellers,
no one is guaranteed a profit,
with the exception of brokers and back office accounting staff,
who work for a fee.
Any attempt to predict the market, will add nothing to a correct reading of market form, but will surely kill your portfolio in a wrong read by screwing up your mindset from all angles. Beware of "YOU".read sun zi text about knowing yourself.

2. All of creation is a mistery to the uninitiated. But nothing is hidden.
You know that an aircraft can fly.
But if I gave you all the parts of an aircraft, unless you are trained in its use, your bird may not take off.

And I repeat myself.
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"

3. Unfortunately there is no way of trading with minimal risk.
Your rewards will conmmensurate with the risk you attempt.
However if you stay to prudent MO, MM, proper capitalisation and mindset, your chances for survival is much better.
Be rackless and you will destroy yourself instantaniously.

regards
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  #747  
Old Jan 7, 2008 7:12am
fti
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@ faqcya
You seem profitable in the long term positioning.
Was just wondering if you "stretch" your trend bands?
Good traders and dealers can out perform the markets, by stretching.
Thats part of MM.

@ lilpip

I am sorry to hear of your construction business turndown.
I believe many were affected.
I hope you learned your lesson from your "B prater" encounter.
remember my story about Diana.
You may like to examine your pinkness and reset that.

Further understand the W Wilder loss recovery table.
My advice to you is to change your mindset levels, write off the loss.
As you have hit non recoverable %
Re-strategise your MM base on whats left.
Don't even try to get the loss back.
It may just get you in quicksand environment.
The more you scratch , the more it'll itch.

First learn to make the small money for a simple living,
then over time you may horn your skills and resources to rebuild.
Its an ants job, but thats the reality of things.
You seem to be a numbers man, so works within the numbers.

About the dancing,
Its really "feeling" the market pulse ( market form) using charting.
Firststly, Do you know why women dance better than men.
Thats because they had to learn how to follow the men's lead in a dance.
This does not apply to those women who want to lead the men in the dance. That's where the problem arises for them.

The problem with many traders is that most were successful in some form of career or business before embarking in trading for a living.
This success , tends to have seeded the ego problem, while the development of confidence may be complete on the personality profile, over-confidence may be a side effect of that training.
For All the dealers I have trained in my life, somehow the more successful ones were always those that were untrained and had little knowledge , when they first started the training. While the "trained" ones had difficulty, because of mindset memory,not so unlike the muscle memory problem in golfers.
So go over what I have given very carefully.
I have taken pains to be very blunt in the presentation.
Unless you were trained in other desciplines of the art, a newbie should have no problems understanding and practising.

Anyway if anything is confusing , ASK.
Hope this helps you.

@ Daemien
Thank you Daemien, you understood correctly.
Good reading skills.

regards
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  #749  
Old Jan 7, 2008 7:19am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Hi Argonaut

A currency-cross is any currency pair in which the US Dollar is neither the base nor the counter currency. You can create your own synthetic pairs by buying or selling dollar pairs. ie if you bought GBP/USD and bought USD/jpy
you would be trading GBP/JPY.
@Argonaut
There, DutchAngel explained it, She's right.

I say again.
All currencies are traded against the USD because of its relationship to Gold , due to the old relationship bretton woods system and the USD.
Further if you read "Paper Money" you would have discovered the links of the driving force behind all the world's economies, ie crude oil,( Black Gold ) which is traded only in USDs.

All currency crosses can be engineered from the USD pairs.
The Majors of the USD pairs are the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/YEN, USD/CHF which are most liquid.

Basic chart reading and Technical Analysis is non market specific and can be used on the charts of any market.
There is however localised differences of read due to the different character of the markets.
Attention must be paid to the accuracy of the data inputs
and the interigity of the datafeed.
This is cos, Rubbish in (Rubbish charted) Rubbish Out. (Rubbish Trades).

It is unhealthy to place stop loss orders in the majors as I have previously explained. ( althought the liquidity is high).
Placing Stop loss ordes on exotic currency pairs is sucidal.

regards
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  #750  
Old Jan 7, 2008 7:25am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
I hope most of the questions raised are answered.
For those I may have missed, please ask again. tks

For those of you who have embarked into the MM on the progression snowballs.
We shall go into that after completing the AOW texts.

There will be 3 Lesson task in the understamding of Sun Zi AOW.

I presume that you have read the AOW manual.
The first Lesson task is to indentify Sun Zi's teachings about

"THE GENERAL". for our purpose "YOU the trader".

Find all important points Sun Zi mentioned about the General( commander).
and post them here with your understanding of the read.

This will be Lesson 1

regards
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  #754  
Old Jan 7, 2008 4:00pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default Understanding Sun Zi Bing Fa

Hi ALL,
I have registered the AOW read of the below mentioned.

MickD#643
alexfot#646
Maseyw#648
Syres#649+650
catshot#654
crazy_bdog#661

please repost your revised thoughts on the subject for
Lesson 1. The General.
I shall compile the manifest of participants on this subject on friday 11 th Jan.

I shall PM the list a thought text of my own on the subject.
Please do not reveal the PM in public.

I would like all interested to post your thoughts.
This is not for my benefit but for you to check it against mine.
Unless you are actively in the thought process of these studies,
there will be little you can benefit from it.
Therefore for the education process of Sun Zi AOW,
I shall only be sending the PM, to those of the members who are in active study and research on AOW and have post prove here that They are reading Sun Zi AOW.
It is also to spare myself the frustration of explaining the contents to those who are not reading it.

On receiving the PM, check your thoughts against that which I have PM you and see if you can understand.
You may PM me questions and I shall answer them in this thread were appropriate.

regards
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  #771  
Old Jan 9, 2008 6:16am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickD View Post
Thank you for your input Fti, I really appreciate it and it's good to know that I'm heading somewhat in the right direction.

I have since been experimenting with phi and it's skew with reasonable success, it's uncanny how the PA can follow these numbers!
I'm currently battling my way out of a very bad trade on demo, it's quite an experience (4 days now!) but I'm pulling square and may even make quite a good profit if the PA keeps up (I'm long A/J).
At the very least I want to get back to where I started the position, I'm almost there
Hi MickD,

Wow, buddy. lol.
Whats with the pain threshold?
Could it be that you are in wrong direction, instead of wrong timing?
Suffering 4 days and still out of court is not how you're supposed to show resilence. If this was to happen regularly in your trading MO, then I fear that you may not even have a spent candle left, before you're finished with trading.

Square out your positions already, and go get yourself a trend to capture. A vacation after this ordeal would serve you well, to reset your energies.
Be careful that too much of this heroics can warp you outlook and feel.

Sure hope that, you are enjoying this pain thingy in demo mode , I assure you that you may feel altogether differently if real $$ were involved.
Although I do advocate that you must have a zero tolerance for losses attitute, you could at the same be very intolerant of long protracted loss battles as well. Cou;d your skew and MM expansion be too mild to be effected in short cycles?

I do believe, without going into studying this AUSYEN pair that you trade,
that may be you are adopting the trading style into the macro time frames. Am I right?

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 9, 2008 9:18am
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  #772  
Old Jan 9, 2008 6:52am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
Hello sir,

Hats off to you for sharing such valuable information and thanks to those who have been actively promoting growth and discussion in this thread. I've always wondered why a friend and mentor trades w/o stops. But he did not got into much details into loss management.
Thanks for your kind words. But last I checked haven't been knighted yet. LOL


Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
I would like to hear more about the methods required into snowballing a position to reduce a loss. (at the same time understanding that i am entirely trading on the wrong side of the market)
About the snowballing of the positions, well it isn't like some rocket science thingy. You're supposed to be trading "on the wrong side of the markets" while on the right side of the trend, if there's one.
otherwise you"ll just be doing the two steps in a range band, la.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
You indicated, that we will need a squad to save a losing position. Hope that you could find the time to further divulge this piece of information.
That's already given in AOW, if you studied it. anyways, here's another way to look at it. The last you heard, how many cops where sent to take out lone gunman in college shooting incidents. Thats the approach in positional rescues. The efficiency ratio, from personal experience for me is a skew of the pi but of course you are not required to mimic me, as I have balls of steel from my training.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
Could you aslo reccommend some books which explicitly discusses on position/risk management?

Have you solved your broker issue?
You might wanna try demoing with mfglobal.sg?
Anyway are you putting up in Cameron?

best regards
jest
Already recommended that you study the Sun Zi Art of War for that
and not forgetting the W Wilder recovery table that I provided.

No, may like to talk to SGX, if no worthy brokers are found.
If there's a market , surely can find the facilitator.
May start a whole new project. but maybe not.
For now tussling with the credit risk issue.
And just for info, am back at Sg already,
but may be travelling again soon due to personal errants.

regards
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  #773  
Old Jan 9, 2008 11:08am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hharrington View Post
@david

I have managed to rescue 2 bad trades in countertrend trading with FTI's method...and the third i had to bite the bullet on...but in the last 19 trades i have had only 2 negative trades to my book.....very small also...and also have never risked more than 3 percent of my book.


I am a firm believer in price action,,but with this method it takes it to another level..I have been trying to trade the 5 min charts for the last several months, and i finally found something that suits me....

Have a great day everyone HH
Hi hnarrington,
Is it working for you?
Are you gonna learn Sun Zi?

regards
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  #778  
Old Jan 9, 2008 1:13pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jairo View Post
Hi,

I discovered this thread last weekend and I read it throroughly. This is my first post. I was thinking to ask a question to FTI but since the discussion is going on I will post it now.

I wonder if there is the possibility of using the loss recovery technique from a more "distant" point of view. Let me make it more clear. I have limited time to follow the market. I can access my account in my work desk but cannot concentrate too much to take intraday trades and baby sit them. So I thought about taking trades that follow an intermediate trend (a few days to weeks). This will make the cycles longer. I estimate to be able to check market 3 to 6 times a day.

In this condition, loss recovery becomes a very critical task. Drawdowns will certainly be bigger and will take longer to revert. I made some calculations in an Excel spreadsheet: with an account balance of 3.3K (an experimental standard account), let's say I first buy 0.01 lot EURUSD at 1,4550. A passive wait until margin call would require price falling to impossible -1.8400 (a 32950 pips drop). To recover from this drawdown, let's say my analysis at 1,4450 (100 pips below initial entry) indicates it's time to increase the bet. I buy 0,02 lots. This would move margin call price to 0.3534 (10916 pips below this second entry). Let's think of a third buy of 0,04 lots at 1,4300. Margin call price goes to 0.9715 which is 4.585 pips below the third entry level. With good market analysis and not going against the trend this seems to me relatively "safe".

Is this doable or am I missing something or dreaming awake? There is still the possibility of counter trend independent trading, which reduces drawdown and pushes margin call farther away.

Thanks for any ideas from fellow traders and from FTI when he's back from vacation.

Ppl, I was trying something like this live when I discovered this thread. I look forward for any feedback. I used to feel a lot doubtful doing that alone against many people's advice but now, after reading FTI's lessons, I know I am at least in the right direction. But don't know if I am doing everything right.

Again thank you very much for your attention and very good trading for us all.
Hi Jairo,

The answer is yes. It is possible. Nothing is written in stone.
But you pay a high price for it.
If you are unable to watch the market closely ,
then much opportunnities may elude you.
And timing becomes an issue,
as you may not be able to capitalise on critical timing.

What you can do is to acertain that during critical sectorial zonal change of guards you must be able to spend some time on trying to decipher whats happening to market trend on a macro basis.
All in , you may, find that trading becomes rather frustrating, as you would have other non trading factors creeping into your trading form.
Its for you to find your niche, and MO.

I would like to caution your wanting to use of the loss recovery technique in this operating environment. This is because in changing modes, the MO & MM changes.
And as you may be blind-sighted when you are not monitoring, there arises the risk that your MO & MM may be dated to that which is happening in the markets.
Moreover the progression and its skew creates snowballing of position and price risk by multiple times, which is dangerous to manage from afar,
esp when that snowballing has gone in excess of level 3. ( ie 3rd progression). You would really need nerves of steel or very deep pockets to operate that way.

Although the impact on the attack mode MO & MM may probabily be mildly affected, it is not so in rescue mode.
The key to successfully implimenting rescue mode is cap size and short tenure risk. This must be implimented using undue force of postional size for small market range captures, to bring the book back to the front line. And as this undue force means big size snowballs, timing is of essence, and it is unhealthy to overstay the market. Overstaying normally would indicate that rescue is trapped and the trading book risk has actually being escalated to a different risk perspective. Depending on trader skills such rescues can become ruin critical.esp if unknowingly against trend or at major trend turns.
At banks dealing rooms, this can be managed at differing levels of managerial levels by seniority, the contingency of last resort being the bank's exco or board.

Over the decades markets had witness failures when rescue MO, is mismanaged to become positional MO.
So be fore-warned
here's some famous personalities.
Nelson bunker Hunt, Nick Leeson, Yasuo Hamanaka, John Rusnak, Chen Jiulin, Liu Qibing
http://www.jeffooi.com/2006/07/bank_...forex_deba.php
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogs/rogue-trader.html

Personally I would discourage operating in this MO unless you babysit the exposures and operated only in short tenures for rescue.

regards

PS: Unfortunately, what I am trying to teach you is universal for pro-trading. I did warn that this is not for everyone or for those lacking experience or training. It may take you heads-off if mindset is wrong or undisciplined. Safety first, please. Approach with caution.

Also be informed, that for thousands of dealers operating in this professional MO, these mention were the exceptions, their cause for failure can be found in their mindset and recklessness. Mostly ego.

Last edited by fti, Jan 9, 2008 1:47pm
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  #791  
Old Jan 10, 2008 4:04pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post

Also, can you please explain further on this statement "I was privy to the true liqudity of these markets and I am not talking about general volume alone."

What do you mean by "true liquidity and not referring to the general volume"?

Also, I believe I saw somewhere that the volume of trading on the futures FX is much higher than those at a retail forex broker.
Have you experiences instances where markets moves very very fast in certain directions?
This is because there is a difference between what is mean by price liquidity and volume liquidity.
You see, even in markets of greatest volume liquidity (where the daily traded volume of trade are greatest), there exist pockets in price levels where ther is a vacuum of bid and offers ( price liquidity). This exist in all markets but is persistant in futures contracts.

This is because of the structure of exchange traded Futures contracts, where orders are matched in the pits ( or electronic books) on orders of customers and liqudity provided by LOCALS ( non clearing members). There will alway exist these vacuum pockets, where it is hard to match non exchange member buyer and sellers ( this are known as papers). This is why sometimes you may experience big slippage in fills for market orders (also stop orders ). In reality there are such levels where actually nothing trades for papers and it keep gapping away for the paper to find possible trade matches because the the locals keep swalloing away the true liquidity.

whereas in markets. where there exist a market maker, he is obliged to make a price for you to transact. AND on the prices he made for you as a customer , you are certain to have a trade honoured.

Therefore in spot interbank forex you will tend to experience more of true liquidity vis a vis futures contracts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Isn't there now a 24 hours electronic trading on the CME Globex?
Globex is a reuters child,they have for the longest time existed but have never excelled as a dominant trading platform due to it proprietary nature.
CME has always favoured open outcry until recent developments in IT that have posed a challenge to their prefered mode for trading.
In many ways their core doctrines finds little synergy and I feel that this marriage mismatched.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Understand where you are coming from, as in your case, you are trading on the 5 min charts. But what are your thoughts if one is trading on a longer timeframe?
Although the trader may like to manage trades on longer time frames, their orders however still have to be filled in the 'now" ie short time frames.

regards
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  #792  
Old Jan 10, 2008 4:18pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Hi fti and others

My interpretation of the general leading an army viewed by trader managing her trades.

Chapter 1- Laying plans


10. These five heads should be familiar to every general: he who knows them
will be victorious; he who knows them not will fail.
4. These are: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth; (4) The Commander;
(5) Method and discipline.

A successful trader needs to take the following into account if he wishes to be successful.

  1. Moral law ? complete discipline. Learn to take charge of your life and hold on. This is a long ride, and you are the driver every single day.
  2. Heaven ? Multiple time frames and fundamentals
  3. Earth ? Market Structure
  4. the Commander ? trading plan. Make careful decisions and then pull the trigger.
  5. Method and discipline ? Sufficient capitilization and sound money management
Chapter 2 - Waging war

14. Hence a wise general makes a point of foraging on the enemy. One cartload
of the enemy?s provisions is equivalent to twenty of one?s own, and
likewise a single picul of his provender is equivalent to twenty from one?s
own store.
Take your profits, protect your capital and avoid loss.


Chapter 8 - Variation in tactics

12. There are five dangerous faults which may affect a general:
(a) Recklessness, which leads to destruction;
(b) cowardice, which leads to capture;
(c) a hasty temper, which can be provoked by insults;
(d) a delicacy of honor which is sensitive to shame;
(e) over-solicitude for his men, which exposes him to worry and trouble.
13. These are the five besetting sins of a general, ruinous to the conduct of war.

Traders beware of the following ?
a)recklessness - self explanatory
b)cowardice ? being afraid of admitting mistaken entry and hanging on to it till it blows your account
c)Hasty temper ? revenge trading or trading on emotions instead of well thought out plan
d)
Delicacy of honour ? ego and attempt to blame lost trade on anyone or anything else except yourself. You can?t fix it if you can?t admit that its broken.Stop making excuses and start making results.
e)Over solicitude - your mindset ie psychology involved in a trade

Chapter 10 - Terrain
24. The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without
fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good
service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom.

Trade in the present and for the future. Do not brag about big wins or beat yourself up about losses. You win some and you lose some what is important is the trade you are in right now and the next one you enter into. Protect your resources so that there is a next trade even if this one goes against you.

I like your initiative and your attention to instructions.
Very sharp.

regards
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  #793  
Old Jan 10, 2008 4:34pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I haven't thought about it for too long, but they are a mathematical sequence of numbers that continue to grow (or shrink in the opposite direction). The relationship with size seems to be the ratio at which they grow, being either 1.618 or 2 and with price seems to be highs and lows.

Anyone else have any ideas?
More question to help you.
1. notice where the location of the epicenter in relation to the spiral
2. notice the distance between the sprial gaps on top and below the center?
3. notice the general characteristics of the shape.
4. Why do you only look from the pricing aspect of the study?
what about the MM aspect?

"What does the words martingale, fibonacci progressions and log arithematic spirals suggests."

Money managing?, exposure size?

Ringing any bells? my friend.

regards
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  #794  
Old Jan 10, 2008 5:05pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted1983 View Post
Thanks,

I was thinking it was something a bit more "snazzy". Always useful to bear those figures in mind though.

BTW Really good thread, finally got round to reading Art of War because of it.
I've been meaning to do that for ages.
There's more to it than just a table of %.
think progression.
think position MONEY MANAGEMENT and size.
build a 3 dimensional geomatrically growth spiral.
then draw an log arithematical sprial.
What Do You see?

regards
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  #803  
Old Jan 11, 2008 4:40am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,

Thanks to all who have given their reading of Sun Zi Bing Fa. Mostly your readings are illuminating.

Due to my inability to spend too much time typing out all my notes of my manual. I shall therefore have decided not to do the PM thingy that most are
waiting for. But I shall instead post here my main points of my reading. If you all will discuss the points that I raise here you shall find the way, if you put all the cpu power that exist here to ponder the issues.

Mostly I look forward that my points guides a structured thought process.

-------------------------------------------------

Lesson 1
The General (YOU)
----------------------
Be aware that although the General & the Commander may be the same, it is not necessary so. The general is he that analysis and plans strategies, while the Commander is that who would have to carry out that which the General expects, but if the General and the commander is in discord the synergy is lost.
In a bank environment, the two are segregated. in individuals trading, although the two resides in the same individual, they may not be of the same personality.
Ponder this.
Most of us thinks that we may be able to run the 4 min mile. But when you go try do it, you may experience the commander , sometimes he may question the General's aspirations. Thst when CONTROL (of objective) maybe lost and mutiny within self destroys the cohesion of commander and General towards goals.

General skills - Planning requires analytical skills, experience and mastery of strategies.
Commanding skills - requires simulation, practise and resolute of mind over matter without pain consideration.
Note that these are different skills, which is difficult to incubate in one individual, nevertheless it is not impossible if the structure of task description can be identified and the role understood.

1.01
"If you know the enemy and know yourself,
you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself,
you will succumb in every battle."

compliments: Market Structure & Players profiling.

1.02
"All generals possess different qualities.
Leadership qualities such as wisdom, trustworthiness, benevolence, bravery and stewardship are important winning attributes."

compliments:This is character development. It is a life long pursuit.

1.03
"A general who has not fully mastered the art of extemporaneous responses may know the terrain like the back of his hand,
but will not be able to exploit this to his full advantage."

1.04
"He wins his battles by making no mistakes.
Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory,
for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated."

compliments: Mis-calculations are normal in the course of trading, ability to trim the inaccuracies as more info unfolds is paramount to the final result of battles. Ability to enforce contingencies and alternatives to modify response to position without total reset is critical in managing.

1.05
"Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy."

1.06
"These five points are the shortcomings of some commanders and will result in calamities in military campaigns.
1.06.1 If the commander possesses suicidal bravery but lacks sound strategic thinking he will be mortally wounded.
1.06.2 If the commander is irresolute and cowardly, he will be easily captured.
1.06.3 If the commander is temperamental and impulsive, he could be provoked into taking reckless action and be defeated.
1.06.4 If the commander is scrupulously incorruptible and thin-skinned, he could be hurt by slander and made to lose his cool. As a consequence he could be lured from his impregnable fortress to fight a pointless battle in the open.
1.06.5 If the commander overindulges and excessively dotes on his troops, he could be made to respond to every move so as to prevent needless casualties, but at the expense of losing the war."


1.07
"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands,
but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy,
but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him.
Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.Rouse him, and learn the principle of his activity or inactivity.
Force him to reveal himself, so as to find out his vulnerable spots."

1.08
"All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer,
but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.
there is nothing more difficult than tactical maneuvering,
The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists
in turning the devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain."


1.09
When the general become irritable and edgy, it is because he is physically exhausted.

-------------End of Lesson 1----------------------

Lesson 2
The Battlefield
Running Battle mindset.
----------------------


Now begin the discussion and Q & A session on Lesson 1
Most have mastered this lesson well by now , I HOPE.
Otherwise there are many here who I beleive have got A+.
So debate away.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 11, 2008 6:18am
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  #806  
Old Jan 11, 2008 10:52am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_bdog View Post

I tend to get out of good trades early, not willing to take a tough retracement or consolidation due to worry and trouble, I am hoping to find some answers courtesy of Sun Tzu and FTI and experience........

I also read Paper Money (got it for $6 on eBay) and it is amazing how the ideas of the book (oil prices, housing, etc) seem to be coming out of today's headlines. Thanks for the suggested reading, looking forward to more thinking..............
crazy_bdog, you are not the only one who experience inability to ride. It is a condition that plagues all traders. This is cos everyone have to deal with the unknowns at every level. You will find that the more you are in the positive books. This becomes of less of importance compared to making profitable trades. Levels and trade misses become sideshows. What would become of importance is to turn bad trades to wins, however small, it is an achievement.

I am glad you enjoyed "paper money" it is truly an educational and accurate bird's eye view to trading economics.

regards
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  #810  
Old Jan 11, 2008 12:55pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
The Market, it's structure and my tools

Understand the market. Have a good reason to trade, determine the condition of the market, identify the patterns, know my role and know the tools and resources available to me (when and how to use them and the reliability/strength). Look after myself and my resources. When the opportunity arises, use the resources to snowball success. Know the signals and read them.

Relate to:
I. LAYING PLANS 4. These are: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth;
(4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline.
II. WAGING WAR 2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory
is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and
their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town,
you will exhaust your strength.
II. WAGING WAR 9. Bring war material with you from home, but forage
on the enemy. Thus the army will have food enough
for its needs.
III. ATTACK BY STRATAGEM 12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring
misfortune upon his army:--
(1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat,
being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey.
This is called hobbling the army.
(2) By attempting to govern an army in the
same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant
of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes
restlessness in the soldier's minds.
(3) By employing the officers of his army
without discrimination, through ignorance of the
military principle of adaptation to circumstances.
This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.
IX. THE ARMY ON THE MARCH (Points 18 to 41 is about reading the signals, Point 22 is an example)
22. The rising of birds in their flight is the sign
of an ambuscade. Startled beasts indicate that a sudden
attack is coming.

MO, MM and Capitalisation

Be familiar with the traps. Manage funds by risking the appropriate amount. Analysis costs nothing so do as much as required. It is entry when the battle begins and my skills (MO and MM) should enable an endless series of maneuvers. Timing is crucial so I must not be late. Dance with the changing circumstances. Also know when not to enter and know when to exit. Be prepared to save undesirable trades when the opportunity arises. Trade with the trend and not against. Know when to enter - engagement and have clarity in my position. As with the 9 situations, I must identify and adapt to the changing market conditions.

Relate to:
I. LAYING PLANS 18. All warfare is based on deception.
V. ENERGY 1. Sun Tzu said: The control of a large force
is the same principle as the control of a few men:
it is merely a question of dividing up their numbers.
V. ENERGY 10. In battle, there are not more than two methods
of attack--the direct and the indirect; yet these two
in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers.
V. ENERGY 10. 11. The direct and the indirect lead on to each other in turn.
It is like moving in a circle--you never come to an end.
Who can exhaust the possibilities of their combination?
VI. WEAK POINTS AND STRONG 1. Sun Tzu said: Whoever is first in the field and
awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle
will arrive exhausted.
VI. WEAK POINTS AND STRONG 28. Do not repeat the tactics which have gained
you one victory, but let your methods be regulated
by the infinite variety of circumstances.
VII. MANEUVERING 29. A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when
its spirit is keen, but attacks it when it is sluggish
and inclined to return. This is the art of studying moods.
VIII. VARIATION IN TACTICS 4. The general who thoroughly understands the advantages
that accompany variation of tactics knows how to handle
his troops.
VIII. VARIATION IN TACTICS 5. The general who does not understand these, may be well
acquainted with the configuration of the country, yet he
will not be able to turn his knowledge to practical account.
VIII. VARIATION IN TACTICS 9. If, on the other hand, in the midst of difficulties
we are always ready to seize an advantage, we may extricate
ourselves from misfortune.
IX. THE ARMY ON THE MARCH 2. Camp in high places, facing the sun. Do not climb
heights in order to fight. So much for mountain warfare.
X. TERRAIN (Points 15 to 19 about having clarity on position. Point 18 is an example)
18. When the general is weak and without authority;
when his orders are not clear and distinct; when there
are no fixes duties assigned to officers and men,
and the ranks are formed in a slovenly haphazard manner,
the result is utter disorganization.
XI. THE NINE SITUATIONS 1. Sun Tzu said: The art of war recognizes nine varieties of ground:
(1) Dispersive ground; (2) facile ground; (3) contentious ground;
(4) open ground; (5) ground of intersecting highways;
(6) serious ground; (7) difficult ground; (8) hemmed-in ground;
(9) desperate ground.
XI. THE NINE SITUATIONS 33. How to make the best of both strong and weak--that
is a question involving the proper use of ground.
XII. THE ATTACK BY FIRE 9. (4) If it is possible to make an assault with fire
from without, do not wait for it to break out within,
but deliver your attack at a favorable moment.
XII. THE ATTACK BY FIRE 17. Move not unless you see an advantage; use not
your troops unless there is something to be gained;
fight not unless the position is critical.
XII. THE ATTACK BY FIRE 19. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move;
if not, stay where you are.

About ME

Gain experience and understand what I am doing - practice. Be swift with my trades. Trading is my decision and success is entirely in my hands so I must be in the right frame of mind. I must know the market and myself - be disciplined, control emotions. Trade wisely.

Relate to:
I. LAYING PLANS 26. Now the general who wins a battle makes many
calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought.
The general who loses a battle makes but few
calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations
lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat:
how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention
to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.
II. WAGING WAR 5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war,
cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.
II. WAGING WAR 20. Thus it may be known that the leader of armies
is the arbiter of the people's fate, the man on whom it
depends whether the nation shall be in peace or in peril.
III. ATTACK BY STRATAGEM 18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy
and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.
IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS 16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law,
and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is
in his power to control success.
VII. MANEUVERING 21. Ponder and deliberate before you make a move.
VIII. VARIATION IN TACTICS 12. There are five dangerous faults which may affect
a general:
(1) Recklessness, which leads to destruction;
(2) cowardice, which leads to capture;
(3) a hasty temper, which can be provoked by insults;
(4) a delicacy of honor which is sensitive to shame;
(5) over-solicitude for his men, which exposes him
to worry and trouble.
IX. THE ARMY ON THE MARCH 43. Therefore soldiers must be treated in the first
instance with humanity, but kept under control by means
of iron discipline. This is a certain road to victory.
X. TERRAIN 22. He who knows these things, and in fighting puts
his knowledge into practice, will win his battles.
He who knows them not, nor practices them, will surely
be defeated.
X. TERRAIN 24. The general who advances without coveting fame
and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only
thought is to protect his country and do good service
for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom.
XII. THE ATTACK BY FIRE 22. Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful,
and the good general full of caution. This is the way
to keep a country at peace and an army intact.

About fti (not a spy but a great provider of intelligence)

Gather intelligence from those that offer it (and are in the know)!

Relate to
XIII. THE USE OF SPIES. 4. Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good
general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond
the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge.
Ok ,Zoran
very good understanding, great read.
and thanks for your kind words for me.

I suggest, from experience, print out your read.
paste it where you can read it daily. read it for 21 days.

After doing that you would have made it a part of your mind. Then when ever you are tortured by the markets read it again.better reside it from your storage.

regards
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  #811  
Old Jan 11, 2008 1:15pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexfot View Post
Of course this is an advantage, but the question is how to use this advantage. I think not to use s/l is one of them, putting a s/l is like divulging your plans to the enemy and becoming a sitting duck. Scaling in and out could be another thing. We have to discuss how to use it properly.
And I like to ask fti, which chapters should be discussed for lesson 2 ?
Alex
The advantage in a single word would present itself in CONTROL. This would remove the other ghost (fear, self doubt, irritation, greed )that may pilage you mind, as the battle unfold.
Steadiness and objectivity with ability to answer to every possible blow that the fight may present you.
Clearness of mind and singleness in purpose with deadly commitment to come out winner with infinate response.
Surely much more specific skills horning is required, this is but the necessary foundation.

And many traders have sucummed cos of this weakness.

regards.
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  #812  
Old Jan 11, 2008 1:17pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catshot View Post
All, I have purposely not read any of the other?s replies so that I can post my thoughts with out the influence of others. This then became a mind game for a couple of days as I read and hashed the chapter over and over. Here goes???
Chapter 1: The General

I am the general, commander of my forces. As general, I am responsible for understanding where the market has been (trend lines), it?s strength (bull, bear or sideways) and on what ground it is in at any point in time (Asia, London, New York).
The general starts all the engagements with the enemy, EURO/USD or GBP/USD, the time and place is based on his interpretation of the information that he has gathered before hand. The preparations for this engagement include gauging the strength of the opponent?s moves, volatility, and direction of movements: long and short term trends.
He also chooses a strategy (buy or sell, long or short term) and asset commitments.
All this he ponders in his temple. When the plans are made, he waits for the enemy to provide an opening and the starts the battle.
Once a battle has started, the general will modify his plans to account for movements of the enemy (price action, changes of ground).
The general will not display his retreat points (stop loss points) nor will he announce his points of victory (limits). These will only help the enemy to defeat him.
Management of resources will always be part of the battle (money management).
The general will practice responding to enemy movements, honing his skills both in battle and in the practice field.
This general is a guerrilla fighter. He does not have the resources to go head to head with the enemy. The fight is always on the flanks and is not able to see the full strength of the enemy, but can feel the effects of the enemy?s movements instantly and must be able adjust his adjust his attack using discipline and methods learned in battle and instruction.
Masterful understanding, you must be some officer, no?

regards
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  #813  
Old Jan 11, 2008 3:08pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
I'm weak in maths but shall give it a go nevertheless. Think what Fti is trying to say here is that during loss recovery, use the spiral or the skew ratio to calculate your MM/position size in order to recover back the initial loss. But remember that this skew is growing at a exponential rate, which means your position size is getting bigger and your risk of ruin is increasing as the skew increases and may result in a catastrophic loss.

Hence, you need huge capital to use this rescue MO effectively. Also, do not use this skew ratio more than 3 times after which it becomes too large and risky to be effective.

Is my understanding correct?


As I'm poor in maths, can anyone teach me how to calculate this skew ratio against my initial loss? More explanation needed pls.........
The maths is just the stastical read of the picture. Constant mathematical calculation only tires a mind that is coping with swiftly changing conditions. A visual eyeballing of the ranges thats unfolding would already give you a guessstimate of the required resources for the challenge, give or take a variance of up to 10 %+-.
Your understanding is complete. Initially you may have to content with the maths. but after a few initial skirmishes the scope of the required skew required will fine tune by intuition. And it probably will be view by bystanders that you were flying by the seat of your pants.

From that point onwards exposure size can be quickly determined. And the focus would be reverted to the timing of the hit which is determined by the gradient of the move (dance), which is a visual of it volitility.

Many analyst uses the this spiral ( some use fibonacci retacements) on price and although this is an accepted branch of TA. It builds blind reliance on "hope" factor. I use it as true to initial research basis and use it on size of position as in Money management.

@ Zoran
I think Zoran did ask me about my using the pi against that was suggested in the golden ratios (phi) by some posters here. I will answer him here as it is related issue.
Using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.

This can also be constructed from a phi start point which begins not from the fibonacci progression but a user determined base. Only that the spiral growth then coils into a 1.618 constant of itself. The exact technique of determining that range window leg is classified for my own use as it may not be suitable for individuals.

For the purpose here, an understanding of the phi (golden) spiral may be sufficient as they both utimately produces the same , a progressive growth of position exposure growth. The differences is in the aggression of rescue and attack sequences.

You may like to build models to find your individual tolerance levels. Some may be able to build better models than that which I use because mine is aggressive due the size of my capitalisation, while at the bank. The reson I am doing so much demo is to retrain myself for trading as an individual.

Whats most important is the understanding of the impact of per pip "value at risk" as the position size spirals. It can get scary, so stay to most conservative parameters.

The most important thing to understand here is that there is no other alternative way to rescue badly timed positions other than using this methodology. The basis of the success is in the trading of the volitility, the direction of the trade is non negiotable it has to be right, so stay with the entranched trend, and watch your capitalisaion.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 11, 2008 3:37pm
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  #815  
Old Jan 11, 2008 3:33pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Thanks for sharing NP.

Sometime it is clear to me and other times not. I am still deliberating it seems.

It is clear to me that the market is the battlefield and when we enter we begin our battle. To win we must collect positive pips but the enemy will attempt to take our pips. Who is the enemy if not our ignorance? Could it be the opposing side to our trade? In that case it is likely to be the broker and I'm sure they have a few tricks up their sleeves but their price is just emulating the big boys so they do not control it (in general).

So my other thought is to keep it simple. Our aim is to take pips from the market. If we can achieve that we win and if not we lose. Although we cannot change the market, we must understand it to win consistantly. The enemy in that case can be the market.
Zoran,
Before you get disorientated, may be this may help.

When I started this thread I quote winston C in err of Lincoln.

Now I quote again hopefully correctly.

The the course of life and esp in markets,

"There are no perpetual friends,
neither perpetual enemies,
only perpetual interest."

regards
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  #823  
Old Jan 12, 2008 1:06am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoLoAC View Post
The averaging out that you were talking about in an earlier post maby?
Also all the things mentioned involve increasing size.

LG
LG,
what is described is a MM technique.

About increasing size.
That's not true.
for most it is to reducing size.
as it would be unable to trade this way unless size was reduced to accommodate the different level trade entries. with the skew.


regards
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  #839  
Old Jan 14, 2008 11:08am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,

Friend, please be assured that I appreciate all the pms that I am receiving.
Thanks guys.
But I am becoming tooo bacl-logged in the rplies and the typing of the lesson.
Plus negiotiating some deals at shenton way, for market, so please be patience if I missed some of the pms.
I would appreciate if some of you who have a clear view of the concepts that I am trying to explain, to help out some here who may be baffled at the lessons.
Debates and ideas sharing is much encouraged.

Lesson 2 on its way soon.

regards
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  #840  
Old Jan 14, 2008 11:47am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Lesson 2
The Battlefield
---------------
Running Battle mindset.
----------------------

"In waging a war one must always attempt to score a swift victory.
Protracted battles will frustrate and diminish morale.
Therefore swift victory is the best outcome and
protracted war is the most undesirable."

"Victory can be forecast with a high degree of certainty,
but it cannot be compulsorily acquired.
Win using undue force
Therefore, the best policy is to thwart your opponent’s plans by superior strategy.
There are five important keys to victory:

2.01.01
" Knowing when to fight and when not to fight;
There are paths that he must not travel.
There are armies, which he should not attack.
There are fortified cities, which he should not besiege.
There are territories the he should not contest."

"Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.

Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape,
so in warfare there are no constant conditions.

Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:
--this is the art of retaining self-possession.

A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when its spirit is keen,
but attacks it when it is sluggish and inclined to return.

This is the art of studying moods.
It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill."


2.01.02
Maximising tactical advantage in deployment according to the numerical strength of the army;

Classified sections omitted.

The Components

"The equivalent to an army corps, according to Ssu-ma Fa,
consisted nominally of 12500 men;
according to Ts`ao Kung,
the equivalent of a regiment contained 500 men,
the equivalent to a detachment consists from any number between 100 and 500, and the equivalent of a company contains from 5 to 100 men.

For the last two, however, Chang Yu gives the exact figures of 100 and 5
respectively."

"Whether to concentrate or to divide your troops, must be decided by circumstances."

This is the method of attacking by stratagem.
It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him;
if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two.

[Tu Mu takes exception to the saying;
and at first sight, indeed, it appears to violate a fundamental principle of war.
Ts'ao Kung, however, gives a clue to Sun Zi's meaning:

"Being two to the enemy's one,
we may use one part of our army in the regular way,
and the other for some special diversion."

Chang Yu thus further elucidates the point:
"If our force is twice as numerous as that of the enemy,
it should be split up into two divisions,
one to meet the enemy in front, and one to fall upon his rear;
if he replies to the frontal attack, he may be crushed from behind;
if to the rearward attack, he may be crushed in front."

This is what is meant by saying that
'one part may be used in the regular way,
and the other for some special diversion.'
Tu Mu does not understand that dividing one's army is simply an irregular,
just as concentrating it is the regular, strategical method,
and he is too hasty in calling this a mistake."]

2.01.03
Possessing the capacity to seamlessly unite the commander and his troops with one heart and one mind;
Classified sections removed. refer explaination in lesson 1.

2.01.04
Maintaining a state of alertness and having strategies for all eventualities;
and
- Mental agility and physical robustness with dedicated facilities to recharge the charisma and moral.

"He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared."
After every battle forget about the glory , as well as its pain
- the next batlle will be totally different.
Have stress control.
-Meditate,
-Exercise
-Talk the family out,
-try a new hobby,
-get drunk or maybe have a fling.
- go to church, do social work,
- spend some money.
- listen to music.
The important thing is to get the mind off trading.
See no market, Hear no market, Talk no market.

Watch for Dealer Bio rhythms
Off form & burn-out signs
esp Energy levels

2.01.05
Having an able commander."
- It is important to have trustworth allies in the access of the battlefield. Beware of brokers conflicts of interest.
- It is important to have trustworthy logistics support, access and information. Beware of "experts".

------

Remember always that the market is a battlefield.
Do not be on the battlefield unless you have a purpose.
"He should not encamp in treacherous areas like thick forests,
narrow passes and marshy ground,
in which the army could be easily bogged down.

He must not venture into the focal ground, a hub of several converging roads,
without tacit support from allied feudal warlords.
He must not linger at desolate ground, which is uninhabitable."

02.02
Defensive Infinate response.
---------------------------------
-He must always by ready to implement a contingency plan when traversing encircled ground.
-When trapped in fatal ground, he is in an irredeemable position.
He must order his army to fight resolutely to the bitter end.

2.02.01. You are the General, therefore you must carry a General's mindset always.
General Code : Never leaving the army in the battlefield cut-off from support.

2.02.02 Preparation for Battle ( Money Management )
Your moneys are your only ammunition.
Therefore never deplete it under any circumstances.
therefore your gearing should never be inexcess of 30%,
for young dealers start with 10% and work upwards.

"Managing a large group is no different to managing a small one if the organisation(structure) is sound.


---------End Lesson 2-------------

Lesson 3
Blitzreig and the markets
------------------

regards
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  #847  
Old Jan 14, 2008 5:42pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
After some research, I can see that fti's MM seems to be based around W.Wilder's systems. Firstly his recovery table and his ATR (Average True Range). ATR is based on a 14 day MA (Moving Average). We have pi and phi in the system also. I am still having difficulties visualising it but lets discuss what we know. As fti has mentioned, there is enough processing power in this thread to solve problems.
yes the MM evolves around the WW tables, but the true Range that I use is not the 14 ATR, but rather the TR of a leg of the trend move on the general speed (gradient) of the thrust.
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  #851  
Old Jan 14, 2008 6:30pm
fti
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Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti, can you please let me know if I am on the right track. In terms of snowballing a bad position, I have come up with the following table. I used the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8) as the snowball skew (although I only went up to 3).

Pips......Lot.....Total..Average..L oss
Against.Additions.Lots
--------------------------------------
0..........1........1
50.........1........2.....25....... .50
100........2........4.....25....... 100
175........3........7.....25....... 300
200................................ 175
...................................---
.............................Total 625

So I could let a position go against me for 200 pips while at each additional entry I would only need to collect 25 pips to break even. If my three attempts failed then I would lose 625 pips. I'm wondering in terms of the W.Wilder table, whether these 625 pips would equate to 5%? The increases are just an example as under normal circumstances I would add at an opportune moment (i.e. when market action shows a potential retrace or throwback).
Zoran,
Re your table, the idea and concept is there.
The differences,
1. you use fixed price scales, I work with market volitility. for me the rigidity of fixed levels restricts my analysis of what the market is doing.Moreover it does not allow for optimum timimg of the critical turns. Akin to catch falling knifes and shooting rockets.

2. your progressive fibo exposures is close, but will be more effective if progression skew could relate to volitility of leg of the run. ie taking into consideration the time factor.

3. The recovery pips should not be rigid, must consider the overrall behaviour of the volitility and time factor. If the market does not behave strong into the retracements , you may want to impose stronger core attack then adding on at a constant progression on the attack to avoid drwing you average away too close to the market when it comes into your favour to ride , without giving the market any opportunity to threaten the net exposure.the key is to guesstimate the speed of the whole leg and behave towards it with caution on a low volitility move and to attack with stronger attacks on strong volitility runs. For strong vol runs, you should try not to overstay as the size exposure is bigger.

As an initial attempted model it is ok, much tweaking required. Try not to be rigid in the modelling.AND do not allow the market to go against you too far. On Balance the market should not draw your snowballing too deeply into the retracement, otherwise it may actually be a change in trend and could xcatch you snowballing into a trap. set limits based on volitility/ time sequence. If posotion became too hot too quickly , stay your MM until clearer signs appears then run a progression using the net exposure as a core base.I feel that more than 175 pips against you is too deep and too large position exposure to manage.Unless you have unlimited capital. Even with unlimited capital , you should not waste bullets.

regards
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  #856  
Old Jan 14, 2008 6:47pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Think you guys might be interested in this especially Fti. This link was taken from the other thread in the "Brokers" forum.

http://www.londonfx.co.uk/ecn.html

Wonder what are Fti thoughts on this especially FXall?
Thanks for the read.
Interestingly many teir 1 seems in the picture. I do suspect that its not the spot people involved, probably corp desk could be Customer services section. But would be surprised that cust services moved from quoting board rates to interbank styled spreads,very likely Corp desk or could be off treasury projects.
Would be nice to get some verfication from the banks.

I find it funny that Londonfx seems an IT consulting specialist but manages their web page so badly that many of their links are dead. Anyone experienced that? or is it just me?

regards
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  #857  
Old Jan 14, 2008 7:00pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
The message I got is that "the system must survive" so whatever is needed to keep it alive will be done. There is no alternative apart from a complete collapse.

Also, although the US banking system caps the loan amount by requiring that for every $10 loaned, the bank must have $1 in reserve and as this amount gets deposited it snowballs into about $1 in reserve for $100 loaned, however, keep in mind that the European system does not have this limit (as far as I'm aware). That seems a bit more scary to me.
I wouldn't be overly concerned with the way the world's economics is run.
Be assured that there are hords of "economic engineers" tweaking it all the time. I think we are not close to the end of the financial systems yet, likely nyper inflation or even depression,but I think no where near the end yet.

regards
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  #866  
Old Jan 15, 2008 10:53am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaveRider3 View Post
Hi Fti,
Can you or anyone who figured out this help me. Currently I use an ATR(20) for figuring out my SL. By stating "a leg of the trend" do you mean we have to use ATR(X) - X being the number of periods in the most recent trend. Hope my question is clear.
Thanks much,
WaveRider3
WaveRider,
I get a funny feeling that you did not read this thread carefully.
Let me say this very clearly so as no one else may misunderstand.
I am not one who advocates "magic bullet" parameters or indicators.
As a matter of fact I consider them the Technical Analysis fallacy. In All the years, I have never ever seen any magic bullets methodology succeed. And I was on the top of the food chain, if you like.

They always fail due to the rigidity of methodology. Believe me waverider (X) is not a constant.

regards
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  #867  
Old Jan 15, 2008 10:57am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
WaveRider,

First off I think losing the concept of having a Stop Loss other than a mental limit of exposure must be addressed, do not show the enemy your cards. fti says he uses the true range of a leg of a trend...hint: use a fib retracement tool (for example) on the most recent leg to give you an idea. This does a few things...it shows volatility as well as possible levels of inflection...no two trades are the same due to the fact that no two trends are the same in length or speed. We cannot be so regimented and stuck on fixed numbers or pips down but nimble to both volatility and exposure. Once you have probable (remember, things can change and often do) levels of inflection based on the volatility present, you can work backwards from your initial capital to determine an exposure level to start with and at how many degrees you will attack.

NP
Yes Northpro, thats the correct mindset.
Kudos to you.

regards
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  #868  
Old Jan 15, 2008 11:19am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Argonaut View Post
http://tradingeducation.com/trading_...al_warfare.asp

Trading as Mental Warfare
By Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

"...Writings on the psychology of trading commonly view emotional conflicts and reaction patterns as impediments to successful trading. Accordingly, they advocate various therapeutic and self-improvement exercises to remove these obstacles. In this article, I propose a very different perspective: trading as a military activity, rather than a psychological one. Specifically, I will draw upon the military writings of Col. John R. Boyd to demonstrate that successful trading requires superior strategic prowess. As we shall see, this implies that one?s growth as a trader may be more fruitfully pursued through systematic ?combat? training than through traditional self-help exercises. This military framework forms the conceptual foundation for a research project already under way, in which researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Andrew Lo and Dmitry Repin) are working with a successful trader (Linda Bradford Raschke) and a clinical psychologist (Brett Steenbarger) to explore the effects of emotions and training on the real-time trading results of over 100 traders..."
Thanks, Argonaut for the article.
Was interesting reading.


regards
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  #876  
Old Jan 16, 2008 12:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fti View Post
The maths is just the stastical read of the picture. Constant mathematical calculation only tires a mind that is coping with swiftly changing conditions. A visual eyeballing of the ranges thats unfolding would already give you a guessstimate of the required resources for the challenge, give or take a variance of up to 10 %+-.
Your understanding is complete. Initially you may have to content with the maths. but after a few initial skirmishes the scope of the required skew required will fine tune by intuition. And it probably will be view by bystanders that you were flying by the seat of your pants.

From that point onwards exposure size can be quickly determined. And the focus would be reverted to the timing of the hit which is determined by the gradient of the move (dance), which is a visual of it volitility.

Many analyst uses the this spiral ( some use fibonacci retacements) on price and although this is an accepted branch of TA. It builds blind reliance on "hope" factor. I use it as true to initial research basis and use it on size of position as in Money management.

@ Zoran
I think Zoran did ask me about my using the pi against that was suggested in the golden ratios (phi) by some posters here. I will answer him here as it is related issue.
Using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.

This can also be constructed from a phi start point which begins not from the fibonacci progression but a user determined base. Only that the spiral growth then coils into a 1.618 constant of itself. The exact technique of determining that range window leg is classified for my own use as it may not be suitable for individuals.

For the purpose here, an understanding of the phi (golden) spiral may be sufficient as they both utimately produces the same , a progressive growth of position exposure growth. The differences is in the aggression of rescue and attack sequences.

You may like to build models to find your individual tolerance levels. Some may be able to build better models than that which I use because mine is aggressive due the size of my capitalisation, while at the bank. The reson I am doing so much demo is to retrain myself for trading as an individual.

Whats most important is the understanding of the impact of per pip "value at risk" as the position size spirals. It can get scary, so stay to most conservative parameters.

The most important thing to understand here is that there is no other alternative way to rescue badly timed positions other than using this methodology. The basis of the success is in the trading of the volitility, the direction of the trade is non negiotable it has to be right, so stay with the entranched trend, and watch your capitalisaion.

regards
Hi ALL,
For those waiting for lesson 3.
please note that it nearly ready.(have been a bit busy)

But before I go into that.
There seems a big misunderstanding here.
I said before and I say again.
When I talk of fibo progressions, I am talking about size of trade and not price levels.
Why does many keep refering to price. It has nothing to do with price except that thru the price volatility,(always I spell volitility) I use it to determine the right progression to rescue trades.

AGAIN,
fibo progressions and martingale progressions and linear progressions is all about trade SIZE. I hope this is clear. The price level to attempt is determined by the pattern and movement, aka the dance which Leighsww refers to. For me I use a methodlogy of analysis I call "romance of 3 kingdoms" to time it and that I will teach you after all this Sun Zi thingy is completed. (I hope)

I understand that many analyst use fibo on price. I keep telling that is a fallacy, makes rigid methodology. Please try to correct bad mindset and thought process. I know its hard to retrain old ... but nevertheless that is wrong direction, in my opinion. You can use fibo on size as well as price level if you so desire, but that I personally discourage as I see no advantage only rigidity.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 16, 2008 12:58pm
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  #882  
Old Jan 16, 2008 4:19pm
fti
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Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Well, sometimes I feel like a deer in the headlights, however, let me try and verbalize my interpretation of this as best as I can.

As far as "rescuing" a trade, I understand we may only use the the fib retracement as a measuring tool not on price but for leg size and "levels" or "degrees" of the progression that the trade proceeded against the original position. This is the degree of martingale that is applied to the rescue along the fibonacci progresson.

example:
1. Leg of trend is x to y.
2. Trade goes against you to say the 161.8% fib level which technically is the 6th factual logarithmic level, (excluding 50% as it is not an actual fib). This would have had to happen fairly quick (high thrust) to get all the way to the 161% before stalling in price action (where the dance changes pace).
3. Fib Progression is 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34..... The 6th degree or level in the progression is 13.
4. 13x original lot position is the martingale rescue size that must be aggressively added to the overall position for a counter attack at the price action stall which in this particular case is the 161.8% fib of the leg.
This is a desperate situation which calls for desperate measures, therefore MM and proper capitalization is of the most importance..

Is this more what you are referencing, or have I completely lost sight of what I thought I understood?

Thanks fti

NP
Hi northpro,
like I said you already have a true understanding of the mechanics of what i am highlighting on MM.
My respond was mostly for the benefit of wavetrader3 and some others I had noticed is branching out of the mainstream.

In the begining , my intent was to highlight the basic fallacy , that the Technical Analysis has mutated towards, were I later did hightligt some knowledge about "the dance" but without showing how I do it. "3 kingdoms" for me is a very private thingy , as it is the "bread & butter" secret, if you like about my methodology.As I mentioned to Leighsww, I much prefer that members here should decipher it from my postings, instead of me giving it outright in a PUBLIC forum, for fear that this may be modified and sold as a black box scam.

To confirm your understanding, as per your example.
1. Leg of trend is x to y.
2. If trade went against the trader 161.8% at 6th level, you would find my junior and senior dealers already "finished for the day" and I would be carrying the book. This would have to mean that both the juniors and seniors were trading sgainst the major trend. It also would mean that the book base would have changed for the third time. ( no dealers would have the book line to carry the necessary rescue). For Juniors thry would have liberty only for 1,1,2 and for seniors 3,5,8,(4,4,8), then my book comes into the picture.
3. If you noticed the 6th level is not 13 but 8.
4 8X book is way beyond any individual trader could afford to trade, unless the base is at unreal small, and unless trading for fun, its not ROI wise possible to happen in real life.(unless you were a bank, or the likes of.)

In reality , for this to haappen , it already saw two levels of novices risk managers (junior & senior). As a matter of fact , if this happen, you would mostly find that I was already trading against them in the first instance.
Assuming that this can happened, then they( senior) would have to explain to me why they continued trading against the trend.

If you are privy to RN Elliot's studies, you would understand that the trend direction of any market is by virtue of the impluse wave, and a 3 legged abc retracement. If any impluse wave was determined, then the snowballing of positions would be limited to the 3 retrace leg. impluse to 1, AB failure swing and retrace leg BC.

If there was a failure swing CD, and subsequent retrace leg DE, then the whole impulse sequence would have deemed the original impluse non impluse.
Correct?
So if senior dealers averaged the trades into the failure CD. and averaged into leg DE, they would be in effects trading against trend.
So thats why it cannot happen. The snowballing would be limited to 3 levels wrongly implimented by the juniors.
When the seniors take over their book, upon the junior being "finished for the day". They would inherit the loss book and would in sffects be repositioning for the impulse starting from AE as the impulse base with a progression base of 4X. and with a sequense of 4,4,8.
And if the same unfortunate turn of events happened for the senior traders to become "finished for the day" then the book would land on my lap.

And I would inherit a book which carry a loss for both events.
But when I come into the picture , I would have to deal with two failed impluse waves.which put market in a sequense of a broad congestion.

So i would have to deal with the situation as from that point onwards.
My base size would now be 20X junior base of 1X, right?
So guess what my sequense of size will be? (20,20,40)

About Elliot,Please be aware that I use the elliot studies true to Elliots 1st published findings as in the compiled working papers of "The major works of R.N Elliot" and that I am not a subscriber to his latter added study sequenses of multi wave-curve fitting techniques. AND that I am total adverse to the tweakings by latter day Elliot students and researchers, who I am to the opinion have adulterated Elliot's initial published research as well as those tweaks that Elliot did in his later years, when he was believed senile. Therefore I totally do not believe in "alternative counts" and stuff like double zig-zags and compounded counts.Neither do I subscribe to the widely commercialised publishcations of that wave 4 must be above wave 1 for the elliot count to be effective nor the predictive aspects of the elliot wave count. I use the elliot wave study to compliment the implimentation of fibo generated sequenses for timing of position rescue size, as a limiter of position snowballing only. As you may realise also to skewing of the progression from dealer to dealer.

regards
Attached Images
 

Last edited by fti, Jan 16, 2008 4:39pm
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  #892  
Old Jan 17, 2008 3:41am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo View Post
Hmmm, 3 kingdoms? Fancy trading it for a Yoyo and a gum ball?

Honestly though, Im enjoying the read very much FTI.

Thanks

Leon
Leon,
Yoyo and gum ball???

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1.The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.
I may discuss that if we have the opportunity to, after we finish the Sun Zi Bing Fa.


regards
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  #893  
Old Jan 17, 2008 3:49am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Are you using firefox? Switch over to IE.
I had the same problem and all the links are working fine on IE.
sitoca,
truthfully, I always am disgusted with experts failing their professionalism.
So on that note, Shouldn't I expect better from expert IT consultants to be able to cover the necessary?( their behind)

regards
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  #894  
Old Jan 17, 2008 3:53am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
This post comes to mind. Anybody care to decipher the meaning? I'll have an attempt a little later.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post1756217

"Feel Pulse"
Those ladies with heavy tops or bottoms move bouncy & slowly
Long legged ladys are very firtitious and wild.
Those that have long shadows are normally tall and very volitile.
Those introverts that coil up normally spring surprises.
Those that spread themselves out normally have no substance..........better stop the dealers lingo!
Try study chart compound patterns.
Yes, you re correct

regards
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  #896  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:04am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Ahh, the joys of work interfering with the important lessons in the Art of War. I didn't get much time tonight before bed time, but here is a quick progress update.

So, my current thinking is:

TR (True Range) is basically the acceleration or "thrust" calculation of a completed leg (high to low or vice versa). It is calculated by the price range divided by the time. For example, if that leg went 90 pips in 3 bars, the TR would be 30 pips/bar. If it achieved 90 pips in 15 bars then the TR would be 6. A bar could be 5 min, 15 min etc... although the larger the timeframe the lower the thrust (assuming the same number of pips). A 15 min bar will be three times lower than a 5 min bar. Now, a higher value of TR would indicate greater acceleration or thrust and I believe this directly relates to the skew.

So when we get to W.Wilders table we map the skew to the percentage level and determine the force required to snowball. A higher skew would need a more aggressive force.

Eg. If the skew came to 50, we would commit 100% more troops. If it came to 80, we would commit 400% more troops. This would also decrease the average... so a value of 80 would mean we would only regain 20% to return to even. A percentage calculation of skew would be (time bars / price range x 100)

So relating that back to The Battlefield - Running battle mindset. This is a rough example as I don't have much time (need sleep).

I have 12,500 soldiers and commit a company (100 troops) to a battle. I can see that they are not doing well and have retreated 80 skews (my imaginary measurement) but the opposition are tiring and we are beginning to gain an advantage. I quickly order a regiment (500 troops) to a blitzkreig on the understanding that 600 troops would only need to push back 20 skews to win the battle. When achieved I exit.

The above is a fairly agressive move as the skew was fairly high. The total drawdown was about 6% of the army.

Am I on the right track fti?
Theoritically what you described is nearly correct. In the trading process, the accuracy of size snowball is not a one price hit. This is only true if such was small positions.In reality , the snowballing should be done in a short time frame and trimmed accordingly. The understanding itself is sufficient for a visual implimentation of the process.

regards
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  #897  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:10am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Did the book land in your lap often fti? I assume that "finished for the day" meant they were asked to leave (for that day)?

I feel a sense of d?j? vu. I started out in an Elliot Wave thread on the 5 min charts and now (perhaps) I've come full circle. I never really got into all the rules (and that's probably a good thing), but I did understand the basics of 5 impulsive waves and 3 corrective.

So are you constantly counting waves fti?

When you mentioned "The major works of R.N Elliot", should I assume this was not edited by Pretcher?
Zoran,
I am always engaged in the managing of the bank's risk profile.
Mostly the books are well taken cared of at senior dealer levels already, but I do go into battle stations with my boys, if thats what you are asking. We fight as a team.

When the juniors are "finished for the day" , they are actually market screwed and having the pressure taken off them , for them to sit on their hands, "watch and learn". Not so much as being punished.

counting waves?, well no, not like in the elliot methodology that's being taught commercially.
but they seem to appear to the mind when strong wave trend appears.

Yes, there are many ways to mutate Elliots work, I stay to his original basics as My intent of its use is neither to sell books nor services.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 17, 2008 4:21am
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  #898  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:35am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by im7i4z View Post
Thought to share something with the forum that might help some of us.

The whole idea behind the thread is basically proving "Random Walk Hypothesis" and the rebuttals are basically provided to support the "Non-random walk hypothesis."

Visit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis for more details.
There are fundamental mistakes in that wiki.

"Malkiel then took the results in a chart and graph form to a chartist (a person who ?seeks to predict future movements by seeking to interpret past patterns on the assumption that ?history tends to repeat itself??)"

The defination of chartist, is an analyst that used graphical charts of price movements to track the markets.

That which was described, would be inclined to be a "fortune teller".

Be advised that, in all binomial decisions, the random walk theory can be used to sell itself as a way of thought. In reality all randomness has limits.

regards
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  #900  
Old Jan 17, 2008 4:52am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
by the time i reach 3X book, i would have been trading in cold sweat.
You said you had balls of steel, now i really believe you man.

So Fti, just to clear some doubts, by the time the junior level closes their books, there would be a high possibility that the trend is already set right?

regards
jest,

No not really. Maybe from the juniors perspective.

What really happens in reality is that while all that was happening in the sopt book, the delta of our OTC options and synthetics book would be trending already and at every price run my hedging of that delta would already be leading my net exposures and forcing my delta neutralising of the exposure.
So the big picture is that, I would already be over hedging that exposures and overriding what ever that was against the juniors positions. The readjusting by the seniors would only compliment my delta position and making the profits. When the juniors are riding in tendem, then its triple income for the book.I have veto to change that exposure, by virtue of my ability to change the delta hedge requirements.

You have to have good understanding of delta managing to understand this. For those that cannot understand , just know that the juniors books are playing only with foriegn capital which I already have secured from premiums collected from my option writings. So in reality, it is riskless, and mostly for their training.
Remember that I cannot be trading against the trend by virtue of my underwritings. If markets were truly in congestion, I pocket all time and volatility monies for the bank.


regards
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  #902  
Old Jan 17, 2008 5:26am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Thanks fti. I like your approach as I understand that in some places traders are asked to leave (for the day) if they mess up.

I also tend not to count waves but the structure is clear sometimes (appears to the mind as you say), however, I got the impression that your used it quite frequently. I should also correct myself as I mentioned 5 impulsive and 3 corrective waves whereas the 5 wave structure has 3 impulsive and 2 corrective.

Unfortunately when searching for Elliot's work, the commercial aspect of Pretcher seems to have taken over. So where to get his original workings? Is this now freely available in the public domain? Is it worth reading?
Yes P writes alot about his research on Elliott's works. And mostly for the futures market library. There much other researches like bob balan for forex and ... but they sell advisories. But the essence of Elliotts works are in the those books. Elliott's research were well documented , so most of the books have accurately presented his findings. Its the wrinkles and assumptions added by students and researchers that spoils the soup. Even Elliott himself did the same in his twinlight years, only to destroy his own credibility. If you read "the major works collection", you may find much contradiction of his earliers works to his later additions.

Unfortunately I believe that there's no public domain release of his works.
Most copyrigts in the west seem to pass on to corps after the owner kicks the bucket, and continue to live in corp domain.

Worth reading? Yes for general knowledge but NO for usable value.


regards
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  #903  
Old Jan 17, 2008 5:41am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jest1081 View Post
fti, wow thats deep.
so in laymans terms. The juniors by actual have 0% exposure lah.
while the seniors do take a certain amount of risk.
and truth be told, you are the one who'll truly be running the show.
The guys are just there to help $$$ goes into the bank.

If the juniors and seniors are at the wrong side of the market, your position should have already hedged their losses, right?
But what happens if you got on the wrong side of the market? omg...how much risk would you undertake before u close your books too?

regards
jest
jest,
I cannot be on the wrong side of the market. because my delta shift forces me to hedge. It can only happen if I want to "sell the bank" and trade with ego instead of brain. The Spot outright exposures have to compliment these in staying with the trend. So normally if I was on wrong trend my delta send red flag. But I have yet to have experience that the "dance" lags behind in prompting short time frame trend promptings. And thats very profitable, if keep in step with the major (daily) trend.

Besides I have services fees income, backoffice income, marketmaking spread income, depo income, writers premiums+...... .............So losses....im..possible. But spot trading income takes the largest piece of the pie.
Benchmark is by what the yr on yr bottom line shows.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 17, 2008 6:43am
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  #904  
Old Jan 17, 2008 6:34am
fti
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Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards
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  #915  
Old Jan 17, 2008 11:21am
fti
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Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Hi fti
I'm trading it live and keep losing my connection which makes it even more stressful. Thank goodness my kids are at school or they would have learnt a couple of new bad words today.lol
DutchAngel,

The EURUSD is getting very volatile as expected, so stay very nimbleness is key word.

Oh about the bad words, I guess I can relate. You should hear the languages used in the dealing rooms. Was you dropping of lines due to broker or ISP?

Incidentally, a mail was sent to me regarding that issue just today.
You may like to check that out.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...080115-01.html

regards
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  #936  
Old Jan 19, 2008 4:10am
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  #947  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:08am
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Originally Posted by lilpip View Post
fti,
I was wondering about the dance steps you took on the 17th with the eurusd.
Where did you start ?
Did the steps include 4613 area to 4690 area and a repeat of those steps?
Did we take steps from 4690 area to 4655 and back a couple times ?
Hi Lilpip,

You asked for dance. It is actually meaningless.
Since you asked , for One time only.
the blotter is enclosed.
Please don't ask for sequence , I cannot even remember.

regards
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  #948  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:16am
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Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

Would your three kingdoms relate to the following point in "The Battlefield"?

He must not venture into the focal ground, a hub of several converging roads,
without tacit support from allied feudal warlords.
He must not linger at desolate ground, which is uninhabitable."


I suspect we need to keep an eye on some key currencies? Care to expand on this?
HI zoran , in one word , no.
But I will only discuss 3 kingdoms when I finish with AOW.
Generally if you think about what I have given it is quite clear, inly you have to understand the cross relationships to see it clearly.

regards
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  #949  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:23am
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Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
I think we should have a discussion on what was discussed in lesson 2 with reference to splitting the army in certain market conditions and attacking "both ways" as in a diversion, like fti had played. At first glance it looks like a the trader is lost on the dance floor. However, what you are doing I think is allowing the mixed volatility pair to run either direction when it looks confused. One group is gaining ground while the other is under attack, when the attacking enemy tires, MM your latter group out from under the attack. In a sense you are strategically squeezing the enemies resources, until clear direction is established.

Yesterday I was in the eur/usd trade and was getting whipped about. Had I attacked "both ways", not only would the rescue be hedged, but the gains would have been advanced. This wouldn't be a normal method of attack, but when market conditions dictate, it could be a valid way to divert and split the army.

Please discuss this further and lend your thoughts. I see a lot of members and unsigned guests viewing, but little posting. This is a great thread with many thought provoking ideas and concepts that are not necessarily conventional for the forum, which is very refreshing. If we cannot keep a stimulated interest in this thread I have a feeling we will let the big fish get away. I think fti would want more ideas to be discussed but has already stated, he wants to weed out the weak and the ones unwilling to learn. Ask Ask Ask...there are no stupid question...I have lots. Please contribute ideas, good and not as good.

NP
Hi Generally you are not wrong.
There is a symbiotic relationship between the 3 kingdoms, ability to manage that relationship is advantages, we can discuss that , in 3 kingdoms after the AOW.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 21, 2008 12:19pm
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  #950  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:27am
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Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I was thinking it means to have the market covered. When the direction is far from certain, be ready and attack once the action provides a directional signal. But in those cases being on both sides is fine (but tricky as he mentions).

I'm not sure about hedging. fti has not mentioned it at all apart from his OTC options at the bank. Here is a post he made and quoted below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post1751534

"I dance in one direction, when there is determined trend.

Dance in both directions, where ranges when no predominant trends exist
. To stretch the range.
This is a little tricky and the strategy requires adequate capitalisation.
The foundations for the MM is in the table provided, of course, for the bank, the pockets were very deep. For traders, I suggest milder or adjustments to accomodate risk appetites.
The MO is provided in the Art of War."
Good understanding Zoran.
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  #951  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:37am
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Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Thanks Zoran...maybe hedge is the wrong terminology, but yes playing one way when the trend is obvious, play both ways when the pair is ranging. This kinda what I was getting at. In certain market conditions when we can determine that the pulse is non directional in clarity but at points of inflection, we can attack from the rear so to speak.

On another note:
I had an incredible week trading. Although I only used small resources, I applied the MM principles and the AOW mindset with every execution. There were only 10 trades. I had 9 winners of 10. The 1 loser was a rescue in process that I had to close out prematurely from priority commitments that had to be taken care of, it would have been rescued in hindsight had I stayed in the fight. I had 1 other rescue that was profitable, and one fight that was played "both ways" that worked well. I think the mindset of a completely planned battle is responsible for 95% of the victory, the MM is just a mechanism that assures greater success...at least thats how I feel. I didn't get psychologically beaten down when a trade momentarily went against me, I had a plan and resources standing by to rescue when and if needed. This confident and well planned process in my mind is invaluable to my trading. I hope others are seeing the immense potential as I am..please share and lets continue to learn together. Thanks fti.

Have a great weekend all.
NP
Northpro, Good attempt to dance.
To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt , then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading , figure how you may have improved by imposing skew. Do it again for a few times, change the skew. there are many lessons to learn , and the market will teach you. Best done in demo until you are good dancer.

regards
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  #953  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:47am
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Originally Posted by MickD View Post
Just some thoughts on snow balling in a rescue using skew, I think that as you buy in at percieved turning points for maybe even small retracements, once you have a retracement and the PA is telling you it's stalling again to continue against you, take some profits from the swing to add to your book.
If you add to your trade, even with a large skew you might not reach the target required for a complete rescue and if you stay in with the larger position you are subject to an even bigger skew for the next swing.

To me at least, this is where you need to make strategic attacks or 'dance' with the market, as you get in the swing you can keep taking profits to keep building your book to a point where the initial lots when closed will leave you book even or at a very small loss.
If the market begins to go your way you can make a good profit as well.

In short, using the skew table is good for planning your attacks, if your attack doesn't quite work, take ground as you can and be ready for the next attack using you new gains for troops to protect the book.

Of course, if your initial lot sizes are small and you are obviously trading in the wrong direction you should cut your losses and exit.
Hi MickD,
Like I was telling Northpro, I think many of you have got it s theory.
You gotta dance the best you know how, and tailor your own battles.
I am good in how I do it, but I can in no way teach experience, only the theory.
You have to find your comfort zone, and you have to learn the ropes by you own battle experiences, I can only show you technique and theory.

From what I am reading , for those of you that are posting, I think the main points are clear to you.
Its the putting it all together, that seems to elude you traders.
That comes from experience and market structure knowledge.

Some hands on battles and the market will teach you.
Just do small enough, to survive the boot camp.

regards
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  #954  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:52am
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Originally Posted by HapaSasa View Post
I?ll be reading through the thread again - there is a lot to absorb and I am well aware that I am out of my depth here.

The difficulty I am having is that I am looking at this as a retail trader with very little experience (and a small trading account).
I am sure that those who are able to apply all the skewing, spirals, martingale and logarthmic stuff are consistently profitable traders, who have sufficient capital available to allow for big price movement, say 200 pips?

I?ll try to illustrate what I mean:
- an account of 2000 trading capital, just trading long with one mini lot, then after a 25 pip drop in price I go in with 2 mini lots, a further fall of say 35 pips and I go in with 3 mini lots, then 15 pips down later it looks like there is going to be a rally so I go in with 4 mini lots but the rally don?t come and the price drops some more, so having an account where I can exit all trades at once I exit after a further 20 pip drop, which leaves me with an amount of (minus 95 from the first entry, minus 140 from the second entry, minus 105 from the third entry and minus 80 from the fourth entry: total -420, giving a 24% drawdown.
If I had an account where you can only exit each order individually I would lose maybe 100 more.
Another disadvantage is that the account I have stipulates a minimum 10 pips from the price for entry stop/limit orders.

There are times when the movement is at the speed of light, so even if his mental arithmetic is equally rapid, there is no chance for the average mortal to place the stops or even exit.

Let?s say the next trade is similar - you?re in deep trouble, needing to make 100% just to get back to b/e.

- an account of 10000 would leave less than 5% drawdown.
- an account of 50000 would leave less than a 1% drawdown, which according to conventional wisdom is the amount to risk and leave sufficient reserves to fight many more battles.

The sensible thing to do, which I am not doing, is to have sufficient capital in your account.
I have demo traded and for learning the mechanics of the platform it is fine.
A disadvantage is that on some platforms the demo trades go through automatically, no delays or requotes, it just ain?t like the real thing.
It?s like the guy who was saying at 25 yards he could should the stem of a wineglass, the listener not doubting this then asked him if he could do it with a loaded gun pointed at his head.

I am trading live because I believe that it is the only way to gain experience, and learn, in the heat of battle. The other thing is if I can't become consistently profitable with a 2000 account, can I do it with a 20000 account? the answer I think is that I stand a better chance but in the long run I believe I have to master the basics to be confident of staying in the game.
The idea of going away and don?t come back until I have say 20000 in my account doesn?t appeal to me.

A bit long but I couldn?t make it any shorter,
have a nice weekend,
regards
HapaSasa,
Do it slowly.
Most important , so it small while you are learning.
You will know when to do the bigger game , when you have sharpen yourself.
try to survive boot camp.

regards
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  #955  
Old Jan 21, 2008 11:57am
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Originally Posted by chiang View Post
Hi all,

Here is how I see the snowballing and works for me, could be many many times better, but I am still developing.

I dont follow an exact rule, I mean is not written on stone, for me is relative to the terrain, so how the price action is unfolding, before I trade I guess where big blocks of order could be and what will happen if they are triggered o not, If not why not.

So If I am wrong, where the price will go against me, If will pass this block where he will go , and so on, I do this also for the positive aspect of my trade also.

So If is going against me and I see PA that is telling me that the price could turn in my favor I add a position, some times I take some profit from this second position sometimes I take the profit with targets from 1st previous trade.( exit the battle with all the positions)
Depends.

I like the Fibonacci sequence for the rescue

So before the trade I want to have enough money (my soldiers),
well reparted, so to be able to rescue me if I am in trouble and to give a decisive winner.

How I repart the soldiers, his decided from my and the soldiers past perfomances and the others forces like liquidity? in play,terrain?

For me the previous price action is the terrain, kind of something more static, mountains are statics, but rivers can change so its not 100%,
and the PA unfolding, is the battle happening in this moment, That I am thinking to join and exploit, if I see others in a position where I can crunch them or join them to crunch somebody else for a short time.

Here is my interpretation from the snowballing.

Hope fti, doesn't stop with his invaluable lessons,

Thank you

Edited

I think Fti has give some good numbers to has to work with, and how to use regarding the skills that we have.
chiang,
Like I said, most of you got it.
Before you snowball, get your dance right, first.Learn to dance.
Do the exercise I asked Northpro to do.
You will find that you can dance better with the snowballing, then try to formulate a strategy that fits YOU. Don't carbon copy me. Be better than me.
But learn from experience that the market teaches you.
And keep learning what she teaches, the day you stop learning, is the day, she'll teach you painful lessons.

Are you Fu Zhou?
regards
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  #956  
Old Jan 21, 2008 12:10pm
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Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Taken from the Business Times..........

Forex trading: a pressure cooker

Even with a driven personality, a trader's career life span tends to be short because of the high-stress work, reports QUAH CHIN CHIN

HAVING a career in foreign exchange (forex) trading often comes at a price, both literally and figuratively. It is exciting and lucrative - according to a survey last September by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), trade on global currency markets is worth more than US$3.2 trillion daily. This is approximately equal to the annual economic output of Germany, the world's third-largest economy.

Closer to home, Singapore is the world's fifth largest forex centre, with an annual daily turnover of US$231 billion.
Despite the whopping figures, forex trading is often fraught with risks and pressure. In this article, we give you a run-through on the important aspects for a career in forex trading.

An eye on the market

'Forex traders can either work in a bank or in a company,' says Gary Lai, front office manager of recruitment firm Robert Walters. 'For most of these corporations, the traders are there for hedging purposes, but in banks, there is a group of proprietary traders who trade for profits for the bank.'

The traders make money for their institutions by buying currency and selling it later at a higher price or, if they anticipate that the market is heading down, by selling at a high price first and buying back at a lower price later.

A forex trader working at a bank in Singapore describes the job as 'straightforward'. 'The person speculates which way the currency will move, much like equity traders. However, the forex market is much bigger,' he says. 'For example, if you expect the US dollar to appreciate against the Japanese yen, then you as a forex trader will buy USD so that you can sell it off later.'

As currency prices are constantly on the move, forex traders are inevitably subjected to a fast-paced environment which Mr Lai describes as 'a pressure cooker'. 'Even during lunch breaks, (traders) cover for each other; you bring lunch back and eat at your desk,' he says, adding that 'even when you go for toilet breaks, the markets can just move'.

Due to the high pressure that the job entails, traders should have certain characteristics.

'A good forex trader is highly adaptable, decisive and has the ability to think out of the box, especially in volatile situations,' says Angela Kuek, manager, banking and financial services of recruitment company Hudson. 'He has a steady mind, stays cool and is not easily distracted, veering off course from positioning strategies. He should have an eye for opportunities and precision.'

Mr Lai shares similar sentiments: 'To be successful in forex trading, or any trading for that matter, a person has to be very numbers-driven, able to take calculated risks; and be a very calm, collected person who doesn't get scared of losing money overnight.'

In addition, a trader should be up-to- date with current world issues which influence forex markets. 'He or she is constantly at the forefront of happenings and movements in the global financial markets,' says Ms Kuek.
Interestingly, these traits take precedence over academic qualifications. 'In the past, when you look for a trader, it's all track record. But these days, many traders have degrees, except for the European and American traders,' notes Mr Lai. 'Many brokerage houses (in Europe and the United States) don't require traders to have degrees; they need personality.'
However, he acknowledges that degrees are 'a given these days', especially in Asia.

The forex trader from the bank agrees that 'most banks would like to see at least a university degree', adding that when job interviews are conducted, the questions are 'secondary; the primary assessment will be based on the personality'.

Perks and downsides

The biggest lure of forex trading, it seems, are the monetary rewards.
'The starting pay of a trader is around $2,500, and that is just the basic pay. On top of that, you get a dealing allowance of around $500 and are entitled to profit sharing, which is normally about 5 per cent of the profit that you make above the budget given,' explains the forex trader.

He adds that a senior trader with about eight years of experience, on the other hand, can earn up to $200,000 a year, while star traders can easily reap more than $500,000.
(Fti, why did you retire so early???)


However, the career life span of forex traders tends to be shorter than other banking positions, says Ms Kuek. 'The trading floor is a highly stressful environment, mostly for long periods at a stretch, causing higher burnout rates.'

She adds that traders also have to be prepared to work long hours which span the Asian, European, and sometimes part of the US time zones.

Where to next?

Ms Kuek explains that there are two career paths for forex traders: they can choose to become specialist traders - for example, dealing with G-10 (the Group of 10 industrial countries) currencies; or take on management responsibilities such as being heads of desks, who trade but also manage other traders and the entire portfolio.

The forex trader, however, believes that the career prospects look bright only for the 'next 5-10 years'.

'The long-term prospects are not good, given that, in the near future, the world is heading towards a few currencies only,' he explains. 'First, the euro. And in the Americas, the US dollar is a de facto single currency, while Asia is thinking about having one currency too. So the volatility has dropped considerably, making trading harder.'

He adds: 'A word of advice - investment banking is where the big money is.'

sitoca,

Good reading.
I think they got the pay packages wrong.
I did hear that they do not pay the good money , these days , cos , lots of cheap grads. But I think if they pay such peanuts, can only get monkeys.

regards
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  #957  
Old Jan 21, 2008 12:12pm
fti
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Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
So with London being the financial capital, an average I.T. contractor here with 3-5 years of experience can expect a 6 figure salary making it about $200k a year. This is without stress and most jobs are fairly quiet (most of the time). So why not get into I.T., earn your $200k per year and just spend most of the day trading and surfing the net?

Sounds like a better idea than waiting 8 years to earn that much as a trader and then burning out!
Zoran,
You are right, with that remunerations, better join IT than dealing room.
I think thay got the figures wrong.
Anyways I dont't know any dealing room giving 5% of ROI. Bloody crazy.
May be 0.05% is more in line.
I think reporter had better talk to knowledgable people instead of being lead by their nose.


regards
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  #958  
Old Jan 21, 2008 12:34pm
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Originally Posted by Green_David View Post
Hi, Fti.

Nice job, but I could see that you were actually trading against daily trend. Is that because you traded by one direction?

David
Hi Green_David,
16 jan already made a bomb.
17 th mkt was distributing, so used the profits form 16th as foreign capital for scalping the distribution.
Like I said make no sense . so don't pay that too much attention.
sometimes , I get backside itchy as well.
The scorpion in me.
So far for jan 08, haven lost a single day yet.
If I get my egor up, may have big lesson to learn. lol

With these high vols, really doesn't matter which side to trade.
But of course, you are not me. I know how to rescue, remember?
Just bragging.LOL

regards

PS: If leighsww saw this , I 'll be whipped for sure.LOL
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  #961  
Old Jan 21, 2008 2:17pm
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Originally Posted by Green_David View Post
Well, anyway, you only had one bad day. But for me, it is a different story.

I made more than 100% gain before Jan 15th. And acctually I closed many E/U long positions on 15th around 1.49, had very light positions because I wanted to have enough money and get prepared to short E/U (since, I thought E/U shall pass 1.5. But, so what will happen after that? Stretegically better prepared to short).


However when E/U went down to 1.4820, since it retraced 100 pips and with idea that FED will lower interest rate by 50 points at the end of this month, I thouht I could long first, and close them around 1.49. But the market didn't go as I expected.

Worsely, on 16th, E/U suddenly droped more than 150 pips just in one hour. I was frozen and didn't take any actions since such a vilent move just in one hour seldom happened before, and I didn't know if it was a real falling knife or just a spike.

Now all the profits gone.

Lessons learned:

1) Market is a monster, it trained me to form a solid mind to be long blindly.
2) Don't or be very cautious to add winners when the price has increased/decreased a lot.
3) Be careful about your self (I was greedy to add winners) and the market(E/U out of expectations).
4) Retrace could be a start of a down trend. So becareful.
5) Your position will fixate your mind(I closed half with loss around 1.4650, but not all, that is a problem, now it is 1.4444. And after I saw a big bold red candle, I know it better to short E/U. But my long positions stopped me shorting.)
6) Since I was stuck in E/U, I lost the chance to short A/U.

Regards

David

P.S. Where is Leigh? Any news from her?
Hi Green David,
Sorry to hear of your mis-adventure.

If You don't mind, a few mindset problems detected.
1. Don't create fixed mindset, flow with the market as best you can.
Interest rate opnion sure snooked you mindset.
Moreover swift 2to 3 big fig moves are not so uncommon.
So that thinking is wrong. Markets do regularly do these moves.
esp when fundamental figures are released. 5 big fig (500pips) volatility mindset is more realistic. Thats why you must be babysitting positions always.
Although the way the market took down was wierd, be wary that it can happen, therefore be mindful of the MM. Never risk more than 10% of your account on a single trade. If you do be fast to react if adverse.

2. Spiral for rescue uses big money to save bad positions, therefore do not overstay.
When riding profits, add to them in linear small,
so as never to allow a good position to turn bad.
You may find that over time, your positions that makes better ROI
are those that started out badly timed but in the right directional trend.

Normally the good first entry trades have lesser ROI,
this is due to the human nature.
Mankind seems to find courage and bravery in adverse situations.
This is one of the reasons to have a fibo spiral rescue and a linear constant attack.
The rescues are of shorter tenure and the attacks should have a longer attack tenure(multiple attack sequences).
This allows for rescue of capital on bad timing and ability to ride on long trends moves.
As on longer tenure trend rides, you may have short strong attacks when you detect opportunities, but do not overstay the strong attacks for too long, leave only the smaller positions to ride.
It is always very difficult to ride trends with large positions, easier on the mind with small positions.
The strong attacks can help by stretching the trend for the overall position, but be mindful of overstaying, it is truly very hard to ride with large positions as it will make your mind unstable with greed/fear factor.
Remember this lesson.

3. Remember that retracements can be in abc wave sequenses , but in levels these should conform to the Elliott's wave finding. Waves that take back more than 50% of initial impluse wave are not trend strong and can mutate esily to reversal. So when that happens be wary to wind down your expanding spiral as it progresses taking out non losing levels to reduce exposures. In this sequenses do not add aggressively to trend ride , as already determined, that the trend is not strong impluse.

4. Again, do not allow your position to control your mindset, use the dance to adjust your positional mindset. When indoubt, wait for clearer mind. If unclear, use benefit of doubt.

From her email to me ,Leighsww seems Ok, she's strong.
However, she's very busy with managing her sister's "stuff" and is up to her neck in paperwork and documentation. Her situation is personal. BUT she has very good and healthy mind. As she cannot focus on trading for now , she will only join us when the dust settles. Her display of patience and attention to more important issues at hand stands her well. I believe that she is much appreciative for your thoughts of her , in her absence.

regards
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  #976  
Old Jan 22, 2008 4:47pm
fti
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Hi ALL,

A Little OT.
But did anyone make a killing on the key reversal run against the USD?
It showed on all 3 kingdoms (sorry , that I haven't covered that yet.)
Was a good run, wasn't it . I think this may just be the begining. So watch your sizes. Its gonna get volatile, very volatile. Overexposure is now a dirty word. At least for the next couple of quarters.
Remember when I said that the crosses volatility was going off charts.
Those were the tell tale signs. For financial prudence , watch your size and be very nimble.
75 basis points on non scheduled announcement. Total clowns.
For any responsible manager to spook the market, like they did.
Just displays their true skills as managers. None.
I cannot remember when they have ever done this.
Reminds me of desperate traders cutting loss in panic. I think they may have done exactly that, and displayed their nakeness to the world.
Although, I think they were right in protecting the bubble from bursting, in their initial initiatives, I think this new guards have lost it. Surely a fuuny way of piercing a pin on to the bubble. Wonder what spooked them. Beware of upcoming economic figure releases. For now fear is the driver.

The damage.
1. They just screwed all the other CBs that came to their aid, in the defense of the $$ , going down the drain, just a couple weeks ago. Where friendly ( vested interest) parties used foreign reserves to help them. Sure don't think they have much friends left , after this. Surely a strategy to get all to pay the bill for the dinner that they enjoyed. A very connish strategy.

2. And to screw all the savings of the thrifty savers, to fund the exuberance of the consuming fools. Not a clever move, for them to try to devalue savings, this way. To bail out the bubble, already there is a need to spread the debt to th future unborns , and now wiping out the value, of the hard saved past $$ value?

3. Watch out for the flight to value, ie precious metals, and watch out for crazyness when black gold tries to recover from their lost value. This must get......And watch out for the other gaint economies. The last time I remembered that something like this happen, it was a call to arms.

Prudent traders should stay on the short charts, there seems no long term until the fat lady sings. Riding this roller coaster is gonna have many of us biting nails. And try not to listen to liars that will come out to calm markets down. They probably hoping for a lull to offload their holdings. So watch them , any giant institution or analyst doing this may have books that could be dead in the waters already.

For me , NOW the bubble must surely burst. And don't be foolish enough to catch falling knife. Flight to store of value is paramount for now. Could anyone recommend retail FX brokers who accept depos in other currencies. (not USD or the EUR.)

What foolish? would shoot their own foot??

regards

PS: for trader who just beging to learn rescue, you must stay the strategy in the light of the developments. There must be no rescue of badly timed positions, as there will be no badly timed positions, in the wild volatile flux. If wrong , turn on wind,and be nimble, do not overstay large positions. There will be enough range to recover by turning in high volatility. This is abnormal markets, melt downs are likely, including systemic failures of market structures. The terrain has changed. The nimble survives, some elephants will fall most will be in pain.

The best strategy for this type of volatility markets is to trade breaks and run away with the profits quickly. Be opportunist don't be hero nor sitting duck. hit & run!

Also watch if any one follows in the damage control measures similar to that implimented by citi group.

Last edited by fti, Jan 22, 2008 6:11pm
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  #983  
Old Jan 23, 2008 1:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexfot View Post
Fti, could you please explain, why it was so strong move down on Euro before this stupid rate cut, and how it was seen from 3 kingdoms. And how this could be explained from the AoW aspects.
Regards
Alex
alexfot,

There you have it. The answers to your question.
In one word orchestrated.
The question is why?
Would proping up an over priced equity market solve the depreciating USD overhang?
Or Is the action used as opportunity to the DEVALUATION of the USD in a free float environment?

"Finally, David Wyss, S&P's Chief Economist, told me on Jan. 21 that a joint rate cut, or infusion of liquidity, by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the central banks of Europe and England would likely occur and offer support to the equity markets. At 8:20 am on Jan. 22, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate target by 75 basis points to 3.50% in an emergency move. Will that be enough to stem further losses? We still look for a decline in equity prices on Tuesday, and believe the markets will tell us when the worst is over, rather than the other way around.

Stovall is chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services"

http://www.businessweek.com/investor...122_626736.htm

my best guess, would be that tier 1, was in the know. And the sweep was deadly timed. Imagine the dead sitting ducks count.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 23, 2008 9:24am
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  #984  
Old Jan 23, 2008 2:09am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms.
-------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fti View Post
Leon,
Yoyo and gum ball???

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1.The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.
I may discuss that if we have the opportunity to, after we finish the Sun Zi Bing Fa.


regards
That's in a nut shell is the romancing the 3 kingdom.
The symbiotic relationship between the USD vs EUR/GBP vs YEN.
They tell stories of whats normal and whats queer.

Seems the iron lady was sleeping with the japs.this round and gave lead.
Doesn't it?
Attached Images
 

Last edited by fti, Jan 23, 2008 2:24am
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  #986  
Old Jan 23, 2008 3:30am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Hi Fti,

guess your RO3K in short is inter-market analysis and money flows. Its fairly evident on the Daily but I can't make out the abnormalities on the hourly. More explanation please......

I have been thinking why has the GBP correlation detach from the Eur. Any explanation?
Hi sitoca,

You are in the money there.

On the hourly you are seeing relationship abnomality.
Notice how the USD is strengthening against the EUR and GBP while weaking against the yen at the same instances.(White box windows) So really there is much crosses tear. But its basically a tussle of the regional zones.

There's however an invisible purpose to all this.
Ponder this.
Which nation in the world is now carrying the most USD reserves and growing at hyper growth?
What exchange rate system are they on?
Do you understand managed pegging?
What sort of pressures can be imposed to them by USD devaluation?
Where is the most excessible front line markets for direct impact?
Bingo, equities!! and who to use as proxy front?

You asked why. It doesn't matter why, except that it did.
I am so sorry, I am dealer. Beats me too.
I don't ask why.
I see that something is cooking.
I only want to find the way to capitalise on it.
Normally by the time I am privy to why(if I ever be), its probably all over.

For me I never seek to know why a table is called a table.
A rose by any other name is still a rose, as far as I am concerned.

regards
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  #987  
Old Jan 23, 2008 3:50am
fti
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Hi ALL,

Crystal ball stuff.

This is probably whats gonna happen.
Many USD Bulls and Bears will be culled. All pigs will die.
For the Bears. the wild galoping volatility will kill the greedy (overexposed) and the cowards (those waiting for confirmation before coming out to play).
For Bulls, its not their cycle.

This is very natural in volatile markets as well as life. It is known by the term "natural selection". ie survival of the fit.

So move carefully and nimbly. Don't be a hero neither be a coward.
Move swiftly and decisively.

"He must not linger at desolate ground, which is uninhabitable."
-Sun Zi

regards
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  #990  
Old Jan 23, 2008 4:01am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ninto View Post
This purpose is clear if you think about trade balances and what they mean to productivity and exports...

The question is - will new trend continue after recent coordinated move, or is this just the first leg of a highly volatile sideways fight?
Hi Ninto,
The battle's just begun,
(Round ONE), ting.
Will there be a truce?
Will some itchy finger go press the button?
Will they be married and live happily ever after?

Well, the future will tell, Sorry for being unhelpful.

regards
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  #993  
Old Jan 23, 2008 5:40am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipal View Post
Hi FTI,

I really like this thread and your inputs are always very insightful. What people here in Hong Kong basically save their hard earned money in Hong Kong Dollar which is equal to USD. Do you have any simple suggestions to better safeguard our savings which have already devalued much in recent years? Do you mean EUR is also no good in the long run? How about diversifying the risks in investing in commodities like gold or oil? Many thanks.

Regards,
pipal
Hi pipal,
If any consolation, you are not the only ones in the soup.
Simple solutions, I am afraid, is akin to the stones and a hard place situation, difficult to find.
Best bet is trading with proper skills, hedging when necessary, and advancing net worth when opportunities arises.
You do understand that in the land of the blind, the one eyed jack is king.
The gold and oil markets are controlled by powerful overlords. Moreover the volume is thin , so you will have to content with playing fiddle to them.
Forex seems the solution for now,for its versitility. It seems forex is begining o open up for the masses. Just that, necessary skills and effort is required to be a step ahead. Be aware that "basket of currencies" methodology seems the way for the governments, so it shouldn't be too different for high networth individuals but for the rest, diligences seems the way.

Diversification of investments , is important so as not to keep all eggs in one basket.

regards
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  #994  
Old Jan 23, 2008 5:45am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jairo View Post
Hi fti,

My equity jumped 43% in one minute. I think this wil never happen again. The luckiest move I have ever made in my life!!

14875912 2008.01.22 13:19 buy 1.28 eurusd 1.4497 0.0000 0.0000 2008.01.22 13:20 1.4571 0.00 0.00 0.00 947.20



Look forward to hearing about the 3 kingdoms. Good trading to all of us.
Congratulations Jairo, for your new found wealth.
Be mindful, try not to spend it all in one place.

regards
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  #997  
Old Jan 23, 2008 10:51am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexfot View Post
@ fti
Could anyone recommend retail FX brokers who accept depos in other currencies. (not USD or the EUR.)
I think Oanda excepts any funds.
Alex
Thanks Alexfot,
Oanda was one of the first demos I tried.
Didn't fancy their platform, will give them another go soon.
Now on Efx which leighsww recommended. Its less frustrating compared to MT4 broker structure.
Their quotes are respectable, only problem seems their platfom abit dated, and they charge brokerage for trades. I like their allowing traders to trade into the spreads but I was told next week they will be introducing new platform. I ll see how it goes.
I will keep Oanda KIV for now.

regards
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  #998  
Old Jan 23, 2008 11:02am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy777 View Post
From your original post on this thread: 'I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation.'

Agreed. But actually, that's just about it, but I would put the 'YOU' first, because without having that right, the rest is irrelevant!

It's what LBT can show you in very simple ways, without the hype and certainly without the complexity that most traders seem to get hooked on.

But first 'YOU' have to be ready to see something new, and want it. Otherwise, threads like this continue with countless opinions rather than the direct experience.

Nice quote I found recently: "If you want something you never had, you have to do something you have never done before."

Happy trading!
niceguy777,
Theoritically, thats it.
The difficulty is in the molding mindset as in "YOU".
And the tying it all together with MM and MO.

In practise, that where most fail. Mostly due to EGOR, the ego.
Complacency and lack of experience.

The worst failures comes from rigidity in MO, and lack of analytics and time dedication to markets.
If you can overcome these potholes, trading can be an exciting and profitable profession.

regards
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  #1000  
Old Jan 23, 2008 12:08pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipal View Post
Hi FTI,

Yes. That's why I am learning hard to trade. Many thanks for your advice. I guess I may need to save more in currencies other than USD, except my forex trading.

RE EFX/MB Trading, their charge of $50/mil is really at the high end IMO. There should be some other ECN brokers charging less than $20/mil.

Regards,
pipal
Hi Pipal,

really EFX, they charge $50 per mio. Didn't realise that as only second day on it.
Been making $$ so didn't pay too much attention on the bro yet.
Thats highway robbery, LOL

the search continues, any specific suggestions?
So far MT4 seems best charting platform. A lot like Metastocks.
FXCM's charts comes close second.

But I need good ECN platform, and good chart platform.
Of course tight spreads and reliable broker.
Seems not an easy task to sieve thru those available.

at US$50/mio I think I shall not waste time on EFX then.
Thanks for info , pipal

regards

PS: I checked , Yes you are absolutely correct.

"Commissions are based on total dollar amount traded: $5 per $100,000 traded."

Absolutely unacceptable, gotta inform Leighsww.
Thanks again pipal.

Last edited by fti, Jan 23, 2008 12:20pm
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  #1002  
Old Jan 23, 2008 12:26pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piters View Post
Hi fti,

Sorry I am not advertising this book, but I am impressed from.

Millionaire Traders -> How everyday People are beating wall street at its own game
from Kathy Lien: interview 12 everydays traders, starting with small accounts, now running 6-7 figures accounts. (nice book, real people real fighters)

ebook for $34 @ diesel-ebooks.com
Sorry friend, but I think I read about how this wannabe tried to mouthpiece for CB, I think she works for FXCM, if not mistaken. I think she's broker, whether legit, big ??.
For now, she's in my books as small potato wearing big hat.
Seems jack of all trades , master of none.

regards
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  #1010  
Old Jan 24, 2008 4:21am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fti View Post
Thanks Alexfot,
Oanda was one of the first demos I tried.
Didn't fancy their platform, will give them another go soon.
Now on Efx which leighsww recommended. Its less frustrating compared to MT4 broker structure.
Their quotes are respectable, only problem seems their platfom abit dated, and they charge brokerage for trades. I like their allowing traders to trade into the spreads but I was told next week they will be introducing new platform. I ll see how it goes.
I will keep Oanda KIV for now.

regards
Hi Alexfot,
Since markets were slow, I spent some time on the oanda platform.
Firstly, the platform has horrible colour scheme.
Nevertheless I gave it a go.
Using it is very cummbersome, would surely get killed in fast markets.
Orders book was also cummbersome.
Charting is non versatile, probably designed by one trick pony.

Conclusion, if I use this platform, If the markets don't kill me.
The frastration of using it definately will.
OANDA for me = OUT! NO WAY.

regards

PS: one good thiny is they seem to pay interest for depos.
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  #1018  
Old Jan 24, 2008 12:51pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

I'm curious about this report of a rogue trader. I thought there would be measures in place to prevent this type of activity. It sounds more like the bank took some risks to balance books instead?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7206270.stm

Any comment?
Hi Zoran,

I am not privy to what happened at SocGen.
I try to ponder about many questions from reading that report you linked.

The bank said the fraud was based on simple transactions, but concealed by "sophisticated and varied techniques

Aren't P&L reporting "marked to market daily" by back office operations?
Doesn't the director of back office operations report on abnormal losses or positions to the Board of directors or the EXCO?

Is the Credit & Limits Dept functional?
If so how, come he 's trading line is so large.
Is he "blue eye" boy?
Is the compliance and risk management Dept functional?
So who's managing banks "greeks"?
Is the internal auditors functional?
So how come from 07 to 08 and no management intervention?

the trader was a Frenchman in his 30s who joined the bank in 2000 and earned a salary and bonus of less than 100,000 euros.

He seems only middle manager, why are his trading & overnight lines ,so large?
For a moment I thought he was CEO/ED
Whos's his supervisor? Who's comptroller?

the trader's name is Jerome Kerviel, a 31-year-old trader who worked in the bank's Delta One products team in Paris.

He was responsible for betting on the markets' future performance, bank executives said.

directional positions in 2007 and 2008

trader may not have sought personal gain from the fraudulent deals.


[/b]

So he's member of Strategic Trading ,not dealer probably proprietary trader, so how many were in the team and how many teams were there? Surely cannot be a one middle manager trader team. Smells like lamb.

I'm convinced he acted alone," said Jean-Pierre Mustier, chief executive of the corporate and investment banking division, who interviewed the trader after the fraud was uncovered.

What?
Sure, Tomorrows headlines "CEO says Lone gunman assassinated teir2 bank"

The transactions which involved the fraud were simple - taking a position on shares rising - but hidden using extremely sophisticated and varied techniques," chief executive Daniel Bouton said in a letter to the bank's customers

yeah, OK , who was monitoring the greeks, its obvious who the real culprits are when they did deep enough.


"I am sorry but I have a hard time buying the fact that a trader was able to set up a 'secret trade' of 4.9 billion without anybody finding out," said Ion-Marc Valhi at Amas Bank.

I am in full agreement.

勝子為王, 敗子為寇 (The victor is king, the defeated the bandit.)

regards
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  #1019  
Old Jan 24, 2008 1:09pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daytrading View Post
Hi FTI,

Sorry to interrupt the conversation.

I have worked my way through many brokers and charting systems.

MT4 is certainly adequate if you choose the right broker to support it, like MIG investments in Swizerland for example.

If you choose to pay for extra accuracy, CQG is the best you can find in the charting world - not cheap.

If you want an ECN, I use Lava with Marex Financial as a broker - mostly 1 tick spread on the majors with full book depth, hidden orders, time slize orders, you name it - and execution is second to none. Marex charges $25 per million us$ traded with minimum lot size of ?250K. So if you have enough leverage to put away 10Mio as standard size, they are your people.

Marex offers Lava, HotspotFX and Currenex as execution platforms.

Regards
Daytrading
Hi daytrading,

Thanks for the updated info.
Will check it out.
Someone should wake oanda up, huh?LOL
USD25 still seems high to me.
When I was retiring, the bro was going to single digit dollars. Would be expecting much lower bros now.

One question.
Does the swiss party allow customer to join into price spreads?

Thanks again.
good fortune
regards.

Last edited by fti, Jan 24, 2008 1:28pm
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  #1020  
Old Jan 24, 2008 1:12pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexluvr View Post
There are lots of differences in these dealers, and there are a many, many misconceptions out there. When I first started trading, I called the dealing desk of many different companies, and I got different answers to the same questions. It was really hard to find the correct answers.

Couple that with leverage differences, execution differences, charting packages, and picking a dealer really is a nightmare. I keep 3 accounts, so I can utilize the strengths of some, and try to avoid the weaknesses of some. Plus, when they call me, I can mess with them and tell them I just opened a new account at another dealer, then watch them slobber around trying to make me stay.

BTW: There is a great explanation of how everything works behind the curtain in the news section right now that's spot on (great put, eh?):

http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?o...966&Itemid=117
Thanks forexluvr for the link.
But seems like retailer trying to describe the wholesale business.
Having said that, Well, he's not all wrong, just not having being there.

regards
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  #1021  
Old Jan 24, 2008 1:15pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipal View Post
Hi Jairo,

I think it's not so appropriate to name those brokers just from what I heard or guess what they are doing. But most traders can easily notice those wired things if they happen to encounter. Some may even accept that as it's said it's legal for the MMs to quote any price as they wish.

Now I use ODL demo for MT charting. The prices are basically very closed (if not identical at all times) to the price feed I have from my ECN broker (Currenex). Not a single abnormal spike after using it for months. I have tried quite a few MT brokers' demo. ODL seems to be the best among others in terms of price feed and connection reliability.

regards,
pipal
Pipal,
Your advisement is appreciated.
thanks
regards
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  #1022  
Old Jan 24, 2008 1:24pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jku View Post
may be off point bt folks i just heard about the futures trader in one of France's fin. institutions that lost $7b; as it goes he was trying to save his intial bad positions that resulted in a catastrophic last attempt to save his positions that failed. My question is hw the hell did it get so bad; werent there experinced supervisors(seniors)? was there nothing they cld do with all their experiences?
Hi jku,
just my 2 cts.
Socgen is a "good name".
From my sparing with them in my days, they do have layers of safeguards and structural risk infrastructure in place to protect reckless risk.
Somehow, it seems to have failed. The question is WHY were the safety net circumvented.

I cannot see that a middle manager have the clout to do what he did. The truth is not out.

regards
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  #1025  
Old Jan 24, 2008 1:39pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daytrading View Post
Hi FTI,

another member just sent me a PM with similar content.

You should really think about whether you want to go down the institutional or retail road. I dealt for years through the corporate platform of a retail broker because a few ticks in the spread didn't bother since trading was free of commissions. Its really a question of making a thorough calculation.

Scalping with roundtrip cost of up to 50 bucks per million us$ can be very costly over time. On the other hand, if you need to wash through 50 to 100 million dollar on a single trade that lasts for days and weeks, I guess $2500 fee is not much to pay for smooth and instant execution in those amounts.

regards
daytrading
Its the reading of the scams at the retail end thats scary.

Picture this.
If I was a retail broker.
Took price feed off the broker feeds.
Made a module that reads that feed.
Then have a module that reads the customers blotter on every trade and shade the feed against the customer for a couple of pips.
Yeah no bro, but amounts to stealing from customer, doesn't it.

If I could just take the loose change out of all the banks customers , every time they had a dealing with the bank , I would ultimaely have a money press, wouldn't I?

Is this above scenario possible?, sure is.
I hate to have money stolen from me every time I trade.
If thats true, I much prefer to have to pay "reasonable" bro, to an honest service than have a thief stealing from my books.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 25, 2008 4:07am
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  #1028  
Old Jan 24, 2008 2:03pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green_David View Post
Hi, Fti and other fellow traders:

EUR/USD and USD/CHF are highly correlated. Today E/U increased about 110pips, but U/C decreased only 50 pips?

Why? Is it indication of U/C bottoming?

An explanalation for stronger E/U and G/U is due to stronger EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY crosses?

David
Hi David,

EUR/USD is pals of USD/CHF only.
The spouse of USD/CHF is Gold.
Sorry can't help you with CHF, she's not in my harem.

Your understanding of the E/U and G/U relationship is wrong.
It is the behaviour of the majors thats affecting the crosses, not the other way round.
The majors are reacting to certain fundamental shift on the ground.
If you noticed the market is tearing up the relationship between the EUR GBP
and YEN. This is in reaction to that the US is a critical trading partner of Jap, compartively to the EU as well as the iron lady. So when the devaluation happens the impact would hit Japan much much harder. The Dancers are repositioning their relationships.

What the feds have done is to have cornered themselves. Now markets are asking for 50 basis drop next FOMC. If I may, I would like to ask for 150 basis.They resolve will be tested. Bear in mind that this one's all on the feds as it seems the EU are not gonna play ball. No one likes to be screwed twice. Its for the feds to mend fences now after the @#$% move. Watch your charts, no fundamentals logic anymore. Both fiscal and monetary have been exhausted. Lets see whats up their sleeves. Try to be square or limit exposure. The elephants will fight this out. Ants should stay clear. If you are game, use the options mkt, if they haven't out priced the volatility money yet. The butterfly on the yen looks attractive. Be wary of the vol premium. The most cost effective is to leg them manually, one leg at a time.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 24, 2008 2:54pm
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  #1029  
Old Jan 24, 2008 2:15pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daytrading View Post
FTI,

...not sure about that. There are like in any industry some balck sheep around.

I can send you boxes full of my statements with the retail broker I used to work with for 4 years....no problems whatsoever...and I churned through a fair amount of positions in FX, Treasuries, Energy and Commodities.

You see, most individuals cannot afford the some of the margin accounts required by the inst. brokers that offer ECN's these days.

The alternative is to choose a retail broker who makes his money by dealing inside the "big boys" spread. Nothing dodgy about it really....just the price you pay for being able to join into the game.

In those days when I was a small fish, I really didn't care - I put my trade on, got the deal done without a re-quote and was happy. If they guys on the other side were able to buy a tick or two below where I bought, so what!

If for every 10 ticks I make, I have to give 1 away - I can live with that. Its not so much different than asking you for 50 dollars per million traded with a tighter spread.

regards
daytrading
Aye, daytrading, Point taken.
Thanks for updated info.
Agreed, the battle field is in the markets, not with the services.

regards
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  #1032  
Old Jan 24, 2008 3:43pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
When you mention the butterfly on the yen, do you mean the harmonic pattern or something else? I'm asking as the pattern is almost complete on the 30min.
Hi Zoran,
No.
Butterfly options on the yen, its strategic currency option position.
Refer any good options strategy book.
Merlin's favourite book has it as well.
It 's basically advance professional strategy.

You can engineer, zero cost option exposures if you write.
If you try it, DO NOT ever WRITE, unless you have enough experience to do so. Use that as a stop loss machanism instead until you are proficient enough to write. So [pay some premium for ability to play volatility. instead. If volatility doesn't come then you only lose time premium. But when vols are in then you may actually make a killing for the price of a little premium.
These strategy is only viable , during instances where volatility is expected. During these times, these are the safetest strategies. ie Small risk for big gains. During norm volatility its a wasting asset.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 24, 2008 3:59pm
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  #1037  
Old Jan 25, 2008 4:05am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
fti,

Since we are chatting about brokers, currently I am with FXCM. A lot of people do not like them, but I have been with them for 3 years and have had good service, no complaints. As far as my charting goes, I use the ODL demo version of mt4, however FXCM is now importing mt4 into their platform which will be on the same data feed so I am told. The big concern with me is how much cash on hand the broker has. I was with Refco FX once upon a time when they went belly-up. Being a Canadian I was protected by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, so I was ok, but a lot of people lost their bank. FXCM is one of the largest retail brokers and has over $61mill. excess cash as reported monthly via the CFTC website: Line #47

http://www.cftc.gov/files/tm/fcm/fcmdata1107.pdf

They do have offices in Singapore as well, although I do not know the governing body there that they are licenced through or if they need to be. You probably know a lot more about that.

Singapore Office tel: 001-800-2233-4466
www.fxcm.com

On various websites that report about brokers, they do get roasted occasionally. but like I said, I have never really had any problems.

Cheers,
NP
Hi Northpro,
well in begining of the testing their platform , I felt the same.
A broker thats customer sensitive. Mostly checked out well.
then I found that they lied. Sudden death.
No dealing desk, streight to banks, only the layman will believe that.
then they lied again.
there's no Sg office.That number is to HK. numbers in Sg starts with a 6XXX XXXX. mobiles starts with 9xxx xxxx. Anyway I called the numbers when I got to Sg begining of month, the counterparty spaeking was in HK.
what took the cake was that they practise double standards.
Money segregation in UK, but not else where, amongst other things, the hedging of position instead of FIFO thingy.(interbook squaring). Thats the biggest red flag of a brokers trying to squeeze blood from customers through non dealing activities.

I Never deal with people without honour, not when $$ ARE INVOLVED.
I have the $$, so until I can find proper and legit broker, why would I risk my $$ with thieves and shady characters. The markets will always be there. Better safe than sorry.

Incidentally FXCM and Man financial aka mf global are spinoffs from refco.(the once upon a time king of the retail broking hill, the rest is history)

A rose by any other name is still a rose. vice versa

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 25, 2008 4:36am
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  #1049  
Old Jan 25, 2008 12:28pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
Actually, I am waiting for the comments about Lesson 2.
How you understand Lesson 2.
I didn't elaborated Lesson 1 because it was well discussed mostly in Chapter1 comments which Leighsww started.
Lesson 1 is not only chapter1 of Sun Zi Bing Fa as some believed, but the summary of the read about the General in all the 13 Chapters.
Sun Zi tended to repeat himself on the same but from different context while on different subjects of study.
What I did in Lesson 1 was to summarise the read about the General.
which was well discussed by many here. Moreover we were on lesson 1 , since the begining of this thread.
Lesson 2 is the MO and MM summary.
Lesson 3 will be about the putting it all together.
Unless there is deep understanding about issues in Lesson 1 & 2,
there is no point going into Lesson 3.
In lesson 3 I need to know the exact levels of understanding of the individuals. (truthfully , I have lost the feel of each's understanding of whats being presented already, except of a few who have communicated regularly.)

Of course this is a trading thread, when there are interesting issues raised, we can discuss those as well. Somehow its all related.
Mostly initiative is necessary for everyone to really understand whats been presented for discussion in the 3 lessons to progress in my ways. But my ways is not the holy grail of trading. Its just structured mindset which I have managed to use for more than 2 decades.
Actually I have presented more than I intended to initially.
Since many were receptive , I gave a little more.
But really, at the end of the day, its all YOU.

So any topics or questions or opinions is welcome.
The more discussions is brought forward the better will be the understanding.
Only that we should not try to discuss too many issues at the same time.
ONE or two issues per day would suffice.

regards
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  #1050  
Old Jan 25, 2008 12:47pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel View Post
Hi Fti and all,

i have been following this thread with great interest, some 20 yrs ago i was an fx trader with UBS in SG, but due to family business interests i have to leave my exciting job. Forex is still in my blood so to say, and i agree that it's quite an effort to get a good and reliable fx broker over time. safety and execution is priority #1, and personally i'm not looking for a scalping trade. have any of you tried the dbfx platform? any comments? the big name behind is comforting but their quote feed lag is quite disturbing for me.

Keep up the very informative discussion guys. have a good dance with the market
Hi bluelabel,
I believe this is your 1st post here.
So you were teir 1 trader fx, were you ever spot desk dealer?
Does William C___ ring any bells?

regards
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  #1069  
Old Jan 28, 2008 2:34pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alexfot View Post
This is how I understand some statements of lesson2:

"In waging a war one must always attempt to score a swift victory.
Protracted battles will frustrate and diminish morale.
Therefore swift victory is the best outcome and
protracted war is the most undesirable."
This one I think is a warning, that if you don't see how the trade is going to go and don't see that it will go fast on plus side , so you can close it with profit at any time: don't take it


[/font][/b]
Hi alexfot,

In trading, it is quite impossible to KNOW if a trader is trading a market that runs.
As professionals we have to be trading it all the time when we come on board.
For traders too, many must be able to trade the markets whenever they come on board, otherwise the productivity is lost to opportunity cost.
So in essence , whenever a trader comes to battlestation, he should trade.

But sometimes his form is bad and his timing is bad. It is these times that the trader should be wary that is he should over stay a bad entry.

During the initial stages of his entry, he would be able to begin to graps the flow of the market. That is why a quick snap shot of the daily chart is necessay for him to determine the undertone of the market. It is from this analysis that he must determine the relationship of the 3 kingdoms and the general volatility , ie the gradient of the footprints of the market would hghlight , what the MM should be required.

If vo;ati;ity was high then the MM should not be aggressive and the tolerance of reverse swing to his position should be re-active.

Under low vol conditions his MM must be strong and non riding. His stay would be protracted. AND it would require him to spend much time to carve out his profits. If time was a factor against him for whatsoever reasons, then the trader should not attempt to begin anything that he may not be able to finish.

Generally the text from Sun Zi highlights that protracted battles uses lots of energy, therefore should not be attempted unless the charisma was strong And afforded.

Side note: This is what killed the kerviel and leeson, etc. Overstaying bad positions. This is why I trade the short charts. because a protracted battle in 5 min charts can cause a trader to be involved in active battle for up to 24 hours. Just imagine if such was attempted on hourly or 4 hourly charts . The tenure of protracted battle could last for up to a week+. Any thing that last more than 3 days would have totally drained the alertness and nimbleness of the trader. And this can disturb the careful natured behaviour of the best traders. When a trader is not proactive in his managing his positions, chances are that HOPE and numbness have stepped in to his mindset.

Mostly , traders gets killed not because of MO but on MM. Which is clearly the case. When positions get large , its basically cos/ the trader is timed out. If trader was against trend , he can definately feel that his exposure was already dead in the water. Then the decision of whether to rescue comes into play. If such was attempted , it would be an exercise to book damage control, overstaying the trade would only work to his disadvantage. And if the damage increased, it would be fool hardy to increase stake. If stake was increased and the situation for recovery does not surface then it is clear that he's on the wrong side of the fence. Then if reacue was attempted again, surely over staying that rescue woud only show his ego at work. And if a trader continue to attempt rescue after rescue without improving book bottom line. It is clear that the trader is disillisioned.

Rule of thumb: Rescues must be strong and swiftly executed. Only profitable trades should be protracted in tenure of attempt, and even that must be limited in strength, for defensive options to be available.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 28, 2008 3:00pm
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  #1082  
Old Jan 29, 2008 1:33am
fti
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Hi All,

An good read about understanding self and risk.

http://blog.thirdage.com/?p=1222

regards
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  #1083  
Old Jan 29, 2008 1:34am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Fti mentioned something about the original Dow waves in his previous post. Believe in this case, overstaying means that the trend has already changed as indicated by the wave structure.

However, he also mentioned moving up the timeframe and senior dealers taking over the junior dealers loss trades. For us mortals, how do we define when we finally take the loss and move on?
@ sitoca

not dow waves but elliott waves.

regards
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  #1084  
Old Jan 29, 2008 1:38am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo View Post
Hi Fti and all,


Yesterday I finished reading 'Bird watching in lion country, which was also a great read. I was just wondering if you are familiar with the book, and if so, what are your thoughts on some of the opinions and methodology expressed in it.
Im refering to the points made in the book such as market randomness, short timeframes and what possitive edge over the market is possible.

It would be very interesting to hear (read) your take on this.

Great thread once again.

Good trading.

Leon
@ Leon
Sorry not familiar with "Bird watching in lion country"
therefore cannot comment.Sorry
Only thought, on that is, if this chap is making good in markets why trying to SELL methodology for a living? and using spamming methodology in the process??

regards
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  #1085  
Old Jan 29, 2008 1:55am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HapaSasa View Post
I put my comments to fti?s post some time ago but never posted them as it seemed they were not going to be debated.

"In waging a war one must always attempt to score a swift victory.
Protracted battles will frustrate and diminish morale.
Therefore swift victory is the best outcome and
protracted war is the most undesirable."
Attempt to trade with the flow and do not stay with a trade when the price movement consolidates and ranges as capital is tied up and cannot be used on other trades.


Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:
--this is the art of retaining self-possession.
Do not allow emotions to take over

A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when its spirit is keen,
but attacks it when it is sluggish and inclined to return.
This is the art of studying moods.
It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill."
Go with the trend, only enter once you are sure the trend has started


2.02.01. You are the General, therefore you must carry a General's mindset always.
General Code : Never leaving the army in the battlefield cut-off from support.
The trader must have the right mindset and leave nothing to chance

regards
@HapaSasa

In trading, when the army is non engaged, scouts must always remain in battle field to gauge the marrkets form. By standers in a battle can hardly "feel" the emoions in the fight. If traders avoid the markets altogether, then point of reference is dependent on ego and self and predictive ways, rather than the info thats coming fom men in battle. Could be self deceiving. Alloew the market scouts to inform of form for productive use of the info for formulation of attack strategy, or be ready for defensive engagement to extradite the scouts in trouble. these should form the traders frame of MO.
When can one be sure?
Only when the scouts are doing well and the market volatility affording for your strategies. Therfore one cannot be sure, only "informed" to guide the course of strategies.
In reality all is left to chance, the point is that the chance has to be managed in such manner to give you the advantage and when disadvantaged to impose correct response to reverse said disadvantage.

regards
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  #1086  
Old Jan 29, 2008 2:18am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo View Post
Hi DutchAngel,

According to Dirk du Totis book.........

Indicators (macd, RSI, STOCHS ect) were not made for forex and yeild no edge in this market.
Any Timeframe lower than 30mins gives so much random movement it is impossible to trade, and anyone who claims they can is a liar.

Remember people, IN THE BOOK. Not my opinion!
I am sitting on the fence on this one. I class consistent as roughly 2 years profitable, and I have no proof either way.

Just would be nice to hear FTI's opinion on the book as a whole and maby the industries thoughts on Dirks statements.

Leon
@ Leon
Sorry haven't read Dirk du Totis book.
But if what you quoted is his frame of mind, the big ??
His understanding of those indicators is incomplete, what he describes is the way some uses it, I assume, but to say that anything was developed for forex or not , just seems to make him indicator adverse and bias to his methodology. That is acceptable but to say that only his methodology is good , smells of egor.
Similarly his menthioning of short chart traders as liars, also smells heavily of ego. If he truly trades, chances. thats the killer bullet.
I would let sleeping dogs lay, and to each its own.
I'll meet him in the markets, if he got what it takes to put the money where his mouth is. Instead of trying to raise funds selling books.

regards
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  #1087  
Old Jan 29, 2008 2:25am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_bdog View Post
Overall it was a rough week last week, but so far yesterday and today seem more predictable. Good luck trading to all, I am going to try and ride more, rescue less and stay in the battle!

Eric
@ crazy_bdog
Just to assure you that what you experienced is normal, try do lots of good rescues and ride an occasional trend or two when they come by.

regards
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  #1088  
Old Jan 29, 2008 3:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Hi all,



Hope you all had a great weekend. I had to go to Hong Kong over the weekend for work. During my weekend travel however, I was reflecting back over my trades and of lesson 2. Here is another brief of my original posts of lesson 2 as well as a summation of the application of a trade, as I see it. Please comment and debate.


The battlefield should be looked at from a distance to get the whole picture of how large an army is, an estimation of where and how far we can anticipate the battle to last. In the trading sensethis can be done using multiple time frames. Look at daily first to get the overall trend (flow of the water), and where about in the current wave is within the trend. If it approaching a critical fib level such as the 61% or the 161%, this is the time to execute discipline and patience, waiting for the corrective wave to take hold then exhausting itself. This is knowing when to fight and when not to fight, going with the flow of the water and respecting fortified cities such as the 161% fib level. Once the corrective wave nears another critical fib level such as the 23% or the 38% and begins to appear in disorder and to lose its keen-ness, now would be a time to attack for another impulse wave. The lower TF?s such as 1 hr and 5min would be employed to optimize entry. Personally, I use the 1 hr TF?s to plot my MM levels for a target and scaling into a winning trade as well as where I can anticipate rescue levels if the timing is off. From here, I can calculate what size the initial attack wave will be (lots). In the end we assess the proper trend, where-a-bouts within the trend the pair is trading, then timing the entry based on the exhaustion of the price action near certain corrective fib levels. The MM is based on Risk assessment, so no matter what happens with a wrong timed entry, we will be properly positioned to rescue a trade with the appropriate resources.
The MM is calculated backwards from the worst case rescue level. (example) If the timing is off or even the short term trend was misread and then I chose the -61% level as the approximate point of rescue. From here I can determine how far away in negative from the entry I will be. This will give me an approximate level and what skew will be applied for entry and rescue. If my ultimate risk exposure is to be 10% and the initial entry lots plus the rescue levels and skew fall within my maximum 10% risk, then it is a fight worth fighting. If it is over my maximum risk, I either size down or pick a different battle. ?Attack is the secret of defense; defense is the planning of an attack?. Also if it is determined that there was a miss-timed entry we can execute a deployment of an equal sized army to neutralize the effects of the first lots sufferings and fight with the flow of the water. The initial entry is what is called Cheng, while the reversal neutralized entry is Ch?I, which soon after reverts to Cheng as well. This in my interpretation is attacking from front and rear like the Shuai-Jan snake. Once the trend is exhausted and shows signs of correcting, rescue the initial entry. In this tactic you have neutralized the defeated position of the first regiment that attacked from the front, deploying a rear attack and quickly destroying the enemy going with the flow of water, and finally rescuing the initial regiment at the point of enemy exhaustion.

Here is my summation;

1. Assess the battlefield: Look at the overall trend (daily)
2. Plot estimated points of entry, additional entries, and rescue entries. (Daily and hourly)
3. Determine the strength (vol.) of the prevailing trend and where-a-bouts the price level is at within the impulse wave to determine your entry point for attack. Let the enemy tell you when it is tired. (hourly and 5 min)
4. Apply MM calculations and work backwards from worst case rescue level to determine initial lot size for the attack. Think a defensive plan, to assure victory before battle even begins.
5. Plan possible neutralization level if required (hourly)
6. Use the lower TF?s to time your frontal attack with the flow. (5min)
7. Add to attack when going your way to assure quick and maximum effect.
8. Neutralize if trend goes against you and attack from rear if required.
9. Once trend shows signs of weakening, rescue initial entry as per the rescue skew.
10. Exit rear attack positions, assuring victory, never leaving the battle unattended.


NP
@ Northpro,

Good read and understanding.
However some pointers.
2. plot...
Do not be sucked into trying to predictive analysis. Instead seek "feel" & form from the market.
8.Neutralising...
Please do not believe in hocus pocus , locking and hedges.
That does not exist in reality, FIFO, first in first out.
locks and hedges, exist in crosses, and synthetics and these are for experienced players.


regards
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  #1107  
Old Jan 31, 2008 12:54am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spotless1212 View Post
I have been experimenting on the correlation of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. To me its like watching two battle fields. do big players focus on correlation?
Actually whats the question?
Big players meaning??

focus??
all I can say Is at this moment I am focus on the feds.
There seems dangerous "conflict of Interest" in the decision making.
The devaluation of the USD is in progress.

regards
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  #1108  
Old Jan 31, 2008 1:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickD View Post
Nice trade Northpro!

I was lucky and caught the spike from the fed cut this morning - on the way back down
It must be the weather, but surly I am moody.
MickD, you continue to put your head in the market beting on release of expected figs or decisions, and you will have your head handed back to you detached from your body one of these days.
I know that the challenge to play god, drives up the adrenaline but if you trade your money like that, then you have lost respect for it.
Try not to develop bad habis , even if in demo.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 1:23am
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  #1109  
Old Jan 31, 2008 1:23am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Here is my final entry, just taken.
Hi Northpro.
Was nice to see your posting of your attempt to try to piece it all together.
Somehow , everytime I looked at your chart and your frame of mind in the attempts, I get a disturbing thoughts of your rigidity imposed by the fib.
Its like you are trading the flow boxed in by the parameters. ( probably your confort zone as you mentioned) but , thats restricting your perceptions of the market and impairing efficient possibilities.
Be mindful that rigidity in mindset can put you in difficult circumstance, esp when dealing with a dynamic and ruthless animal, the markets.
I am to the opinion that there was no attempt to "dance" with the market displayed in your attempt. The attempts were too cut and dry, there was no feel and flow sequenses. Too...........(thinking for the right explaination)

You can do better, Try harder.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 2:11am
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  #1110  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:02am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spotless1212 View Post
I have been experimenting on the correlation of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. To me its like watching two battle fields. do big players focus on correlation?
Hi again.
If I got what you are asking.
Let me build you a scenerio.
You are watching USD/Yen and GBP/USD.
and everything is stable and quiet.
Suddenly theres heavy selling of USD/Yen .
What happens to the dollar, it floods the market.
Do you think there will be a reaction in the GBP/USD?

Does this answer your correlation question.

regards
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  #1112  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:30am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaveRider3 View Post
Hi Fti,
I recently came across a book, which relates AOW with trading. The books is "36 Strategies of Chinese for financial traders" by Daryl Guppy. I don't know if you have come across that book. I feel that reading that book should compliment your teachings.
Just my 2 cents.
Thanks,
WaveRider3
Before retirement, I did heard about a group of guppy traders. Then I understood that they were meant as in "small" = guppy traders.
I heard now the "guppy guru" have moved out of the fish farm into cyberspace.LOL

36 strategems is ok reading.
makes for 36x36 chance , also 36 basepower 36 strategies.
Like sitoca mentioned mostly covered in Sun Zi AOW.
Since you are at it, for your general knowledge, might as well read about the classics "The water margin" and "The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms". Kong Meng's wisdoms may help open your mind to "thoughts".

Please do not confuse that epic with my romance of 3 kingdom, which is the romance of 3 forex kingdoms.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 2:46am
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  #1113  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:37am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickD View Post
I understand.
To be honest I don't follow the news, I seen the spike, waited for it to stop and waited for the opportunity on the correction, nothing more.
I took profits on the return leg when it stalled, then it continued down so I got back on and took another 40 pip's as it reached it's previous price before the spike.
As you said, it's was only the news and a knee jerk reation by traders, I at first thought it was a stop hunt for a lot of short orders and that's why I was watching.

cheers,
Mick.
Oh, ok good dancing.
although you may not want to trade the fundamentals, but be aware of their impending releases, the FF calander may be useful for that. You do not want to be suckered into positions ahead of their releases.
Mostly for US figs , watch out for Friday mornings. esp near month end.
For Jap figs, mid week, esp tankan and keidianren reports.

regards
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  #1117  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexmoments View Post
I think everyone who trades technicals exclusively has been suckered into having their stops being blown out of the water.
possible, except for the true technical analyst.
capricious - "woman are like goats" lol

focus on word capricious not on word woman or the woman!

Hint: market=woman, LOL, beautiful curves.
Why do you think I'll used most of my adult life tackling her.
Even the queen bee has difficulty competing mostly.
Attached Images
 

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 4:17am
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  #1119  
Old Jan 31, 2008 3:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Hi fti

I never trade first Friday of every month as this is when US releases non farm payroll data. The market almost always goes crazy for a while after this release.
yes , and that too.
don't trade into the figs.
pick on the dead carcasses after the explosion. always good feeding.

regards
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  #1121  
Old Jan 31, 2008 3:39am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Fti,

Thanks for the response and the positive criticism. I somehow think though that I have lost the concept somewhere here. I thought that I was figuring your methodology out to some degree, now not so sure. I think I am close but am missing a few critical links in the chain and to be honest I feel a little confused here...the "feeling" of the market you describe, leaves me a little perplexed...I suppose there is music there that I cannot quite hear and I use the fibs and trendlines as guidelines like a def person uses visual clues to audible events. That would be a weakness, that you describe leads to rigidity...although shattered(LOL), I will try harder.

Cheers,
NP
@ northpro.
maybe this might help, you .
MO="dance" ie timing, rythem, pulse. use compounded, limit compounding to leg ie "stretch".
fibo=size, use fibo to your advantage, in MM not like its a golden bullet.
Your staggering of MM is correct. Just your rational of where to do it.
remember to "dance" the market form.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 3:50am
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  #1123  
Old Jan 31, 2008 10:50am
fti
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Hi ALL,
Looks like the fed did the magic.
The USD has had it against the EUR.
Look for the begining of the reverse of trend.
Stay nimble and not short of USD from now.
Just general advise, short USD is bad proposition from here on.
Love to know whats driving the USD now.

regards

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 11:01am
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  #1124  
Old Jan 31, 2008 11:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

How many trades would you make on an average day?
Hi Zoran,
Enough for the (spot Fx)brokers to be fighting over the business.
why do you ask?

regards
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  #1126  
Old Jan 31, 2008 11:37am
fti
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Hi All,
This will be erased when I am finished with it.
You wanna dance .
watch you chart and learn.

Time window for selling EUR/USD opens now.
watching levels 1.4825/00
Now waiting for GBP/USD to top out.
If no one is watching I shall stop commentary.
If watching just write watching in reply then delete.
its going to be long night here.
ossible window at 1.4840/55
sold level 1 at 1.4833
Noted zoran and Northpro.
notime to answer now, daancing

now preparing attack sequence level 2
attck sequense level 2 abandoned.
toping of GBP completed.
now rescue level 2 on stand by
short eruusd 1.4838 filled
now awaiting usd/yen retracement back down tfor time window toopen
position recap short eur/usd 1.4833, 1.4838
final topping GBP/Usd expected within next 10 mins
preparingattack sequence level 2
waiting for usdyen to pomplete retrace sequence
yes in 5 min time frame
now gbp top complete
waiting for usd yen retrace sequense to complete
preparing rescue level 2
bhpho you are noted
sold gbp/usd 1.9891
srescue sold 3 x 1.4849
waiting for down swing in eur
sold gbp 1.9884
wave rider 3 you are noted
lloks like the eur and gbp refuse to run unless USd yen bottoms out
may sweep top at eur and gbp
now begining ending time window of usdyen
usd yen bottom out
preparing sell attack sequence on eur
will be fast mkr
reporting may lag
sell 5X
sold 5x 1.9884 GBP
up sweep not strong
volatility dropping
based on performance leader to sell off is GBp
bur gbp seems to have no depth
NY will be goning home soon.
wonder whats their blotter like
oh leighsww 's back
welcome back leighsww!
looks llike non event for today
will be trying to get out at the twinlight zone.
for those that cannot wait, the strategy is to get out all the positions
GBP near 1.9880
for EUR near .4830
except hold small over night short Currencies and lonfg USD
here comes
hold small long USD as in maybe 1 vs GBP ! vs EUR

ok so for those who want you should print thios now.
and I will be erasing soon. so that you chaps can chit chatty.
while I try to get out of the positions.
soory it was a congestion.
As always leighsww 's got impeckable timing.
welcome back
go ahead chatty away.
I am still stuck.
the EUR baby i testing my resolve.
nothing dangerous yet.
still in the time window zone.
will not be updating from now, gonna watch my babes
will let you all know when I get out of the positions and
I will leave small for over night due to pattern of daily and hourly.
It gonna be a long night(morning) LOL

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 2:30pm
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  #1137  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:36pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seeit View Post
The Euro will hit 1.4889 , before it comes back down. long night for some
really?
maybe, I will be watching for it.

regards
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  #1139  
Old Jan 31, 2008 2:54pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

From what I saw, this is kind of how I imagined it to be and I have traded similarly in the past. Admittedly, I did take a small EUR and cable short just to feel the market.

Cable is about break even whereas EUR is 25 pips negative. I shall continue to babysit and hold overnight if need be. Current plan is to close for a small profit.
ok zoran since you are on position.
follow along
watch that usd yen closely now
the leader is gbp
eur is sweeping top,
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  #1142  
Old Jan 31, 2008 3:24pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Cable looks like a rounding top on the hourly with a bit of a diamond formation. Yen could go for one more wave down. These are my thoughts. Cable short is still looking good from my view.
Just to keep you informed I am preparing rescue now.
mostly wating for the bleeding to stop in eur
and watching that usd yen close
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  #1145  
Old Jan 31, 2008 3:42pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Now you are a "Euppy" trader (pronounced Yuppy). It is another of my pet pairs but I am beginning to move over to fti's zone.... concentrating on cable, yen and euro. I like the idea of romancing with the three kingdoms.
Hi zorn,
now is not the time to analyse.
let the leg s tell us , we are not dead in waters yet.
the mrket has gone to non dorminant plays
if it was truly up trend, we would be deep out of money by now
The market will continue to test.
this is about the hardest test zones, as it is near turn
an we are positioned near turn. and against majoy day trend
so expect a lot of pain , mostly in time
wait for the test. thy are all coiling up.
mostly stop traders are mostly sweeped out already.
Make on mistake they will test us as we are out of money but still in play
now is good time to check the duck on top to figure out
but since we are not in the banks, we just have to watch the pips movement to feel.
for now wait for bleeding to stop
EUR is being to show hand already.
but done be hasty, now timing is critical.
careful, steady, not yet crosses in play now

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 3:56pm
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  #1148  
Old Jan 31, 2008 4:10pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I'm with you fti

I was in a position to take some profit on my cable short but my platform froze, and just as I lost the profit, everything started working again. The joys of retail bro-kers!

I am only trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the moment. All eyes are on those + yen!

Last yen wave down complete. EUR and cable looks like it's going down.
There you are begining to dance
remember last leg showed volatility on the short of currenccies,
there yen crosses on at mom
probably positioning for Tokyo zone.
prepare bullets, for now
remember timing must be good .
I'm working on strategy now
do not analyse anymore just feel

The time window for the drop is now
but I got lots at this level.
so looks like rescue is called off,
try ride down from here
I am taking out 6 of my gbp at around 60.
riding on 1
eur need rescue, will determine when gbp is secured

the usd yen isn't sexy tonight.
sometnigs lurking in the shadows. but she has been weird for some time already. as you may have notived.

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 4:28pm
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  #1153  
Old Jan 31, 2008 4:45pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Cable short has been closed for 10 pips profit. Euro still in the negative but entry is 25 times smaller than cable entry. Overall in profit now. Focusing on EUR rescue.
Hey Zoran good for you, I am still trying to get my 70 GBP
realise how every kingdom is waiting now
whatevreyou do her would be the wrong move, except if you want to pocket some loose change

OK bot 1.9870 x6

now only sht 1
working on eur now
and where did zoran go?
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  #1155  
Old Jan 31, 2008 5:00pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I was just thinking of leaving EUR open overnight (i.e. Asian session). It is a small entry.

fti, were you looking at the cable triangle (on 5 min) initially at entry?
You must be tired.
Was the ride worth it, you decide.
might as well leave small postion .
seems we won't be going anywhere for now.
but remember we may have caught the top.
maybe not.
so stay vigilant for next move
the eur don't look worth while, so if damage is not a hole in the pocket
might as well clear out and have a good rest.

now I got to get the kids up for school, LOL
mom pls.
ok done

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 5:24pm
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  #1158  
Old Jan 31, 2008 5:23pm
fti
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Oh Leighsww, in your absense, it was brought to my attention that you are paying bro of USD$50 per mio.
seem too much
Any ideas?

regards
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  #1159  
Old Jan 31, 2008 5:34pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
fti is a pro, thus he may be able to handle 3 kingdoms and also be nosy enough to spy in on several dance floors at the same time while waltzing in his own dance :, but for me ... I prefer to concentrate on my one partner and keep my eyes on ONE dance floor (the one I'm dancing on) and not be looking at what other people are dancing on other dance floors, lol.

For me, watching what the other dancers are doing on the other dance floors is almost like watching several technical indicators at the same time ... they may influence my decisions and also trip me up.

Anyway, like I said ... fti is so well seasoned, he can do this, but for me, I don't want to have to worry about what the other dancers on other dance floors are doing if I am to dance my own dance with flair and finesse, lol

So, for those of you who are more like me (especially those who are not as seasoned as fti or some of the others), I'll be checking in and contributing to your dance lessons to make sure that fti doesn't corrupt you into bad habits (for fti --> , lol.
@ Leighsww,
Regarding the romancing of the 3 kingdoms,its new to you, as your training was at stage one then.
You were taught how to dance properly with elementary MM.
So do catch up on the progress.
The romance is essential for proper managing.
Notice how it kept the position in the battle, when all was lost from the onset.
Other wise re-analysis would have taken us out esp the EUR position.
I guess being stopped out on Eur wouldn'[t be too bad from hindsight,
but the resilience was necessary.
In other scenerios of market gyration, it will prove critical. That you may be able to see when you are more experienced.

regards
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  #1160  
Old Jan 31, 2008 5:44pm
fti
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ok , for those still following
sold EUR x3 @ 1.4857

recap position
s1 1.4833
s1 1.4838
s3 1.4849
s3 1.4857

s1 1.9884
a word of caution here to those who think holy grail
no. be aware that the time window range of 1.4850/00 kept the game alive.
otherwise the loss was mounting , try not to become the next kirvael,
there are limitations and the readig of form is essential/critical

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 6:00pm
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  #1165  
Old Jan 31, 2008 6:23pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Well, ever since you've taught me your system, I haven't had much losses (especially due to rescuing bad trades and turning them into good ones). The only reason for any losses previously, was due to having to exit trades that I couldn't stay up into the wee hours of the morning to finish (but that should not be the problem anymore now with EUR/JPY as my pair to trade).

Since I've had good winning trades, my commission on my past two days of trading has only been approx. 5% of my profits, so I figure that's fair enough to give my broker. I am willing to give up to 10% - 15% on my profits, so if I'm making $$, I'm not going to worry about giving 5% - 10% to them ... they have to make their money, too

I also just don't want to have to move to another broker right now, especially since I don't know who the heck I would move to. Not to mention, I'd have to start all over with getting used to their platform, etc.

Anyway, if such time comes when I will need to find a new broker, I was hoping that you would have found the one for you and let me know, haha :

Also, if you're trading huge lot sizes and frequently, you can contact EFX and negotiate for a better commission rate. You might want to try that.
Leighsww,
your position is noted, just felt tht I should sound out.
i do understand that for small players its non issue .
moreover seem efx services seems ok and you are very comfortable with their platform.
their booking FiFO, net is professional like in spot FX unlike most books, too troublesome in their accounting. so bros a minus but business model seems a plus for now. But over time bro does build up for size.
I wouldn't want to do double standards in aking for bro discount, if they condone that then not so cutomer friendly.
Size shouldn't matter to them too much.
Moreover I am not willing to show hand to tell them who I am, when they find out then its time for me to move on. Retired people don't like to live in houses on the hill, attracts too much unnecessaries.If you catch the drift.

regards
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  #1166  
Old Jan 31, 2008 6:28pm
fti
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sold 1 GBP @1.9899
sign off for a moment , switching computer.
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  #1168  
Old Jan 31, 2008 6:47pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
So who are you fti? I'm sure even if you told me I still wouldn't know.

I thought living on top of hills is good Feng Shui!

I have to admit it's hard to just dance without analysing. Why did you add another cable short? Do you think another sweep just occured? I can see some technical reasons, both on EUR and cable.

Leigh, please feel free to answer any of the questions above.
@ zoran
the reason is tokyo is back in the game.
we were playing with the twinlight guys after NY went off.
So the tokyo boys may like to test the range resolve again.
orders are still relatively sparce , some are just begining to move over to tokyo, not all americans dealers are so hardcore.
So lets watch the new dance begining to unfold.

much of the underlying is unchanged. but probably USD yen should be more aggressive. Lets watch when the boys come on in full swing.

ah, the sweet smell of coffee!!
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  #1171  
Old Jan 31, 2008 7:16pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
LOL, okay, guess I better get caught up.

But, you once said to not do like you, but to do better than you (not that I'm doing better than you, haha, but I'm quoting what you said which I took to mean that we don't have to do exactly as you, lol .

You also said that there are no rules, so if for me just concentrating on ONE kingdom/pair is giving me successful trades with little to no stress (hey, I'm becoming a very good dancer, hehe) ... can't I just be happy with taking care of my one li'l ol' kingdom?

There are some things that I don't want to be like you, fti ... mainly, why you had health problems when you were trading for the banks, so there's not going to be everything that I will do the same as you, you know :

Anyway, I will do as you say and read back on the "romancing 3 kingdoms" lessons to get caught up. If it has a big influence on MM, then I will learn it, as you insist. If it does not though, can I debate that further with you? : (just kidding, I won't need to debate it unless I feel it's detrimental in some way, but I'll just stick to what I'm doing, but I surely won't get in the way of your teaching others this, as others may find much value in it for themselves).



LOL, well hopefully the percentage I'm paying out will stay relatively small (single digit ... cuz, going into double digit means that I'm not making large enough wins). So far (since using fti's method), I have been very happy with the profitable results and the smaller commission percentage I'm paying out now, compared to what I used to pay out prior to learning his method.

I don't feel that 5% is all that high, but if you're doing better, that's GREAT!



Oooooh no, I'm not disclosing fti's real name. Sheesh, Minnie Mouse will have a fit if she knew her hubby was posting here!! ACK, did I just give you away, fti?

Leighsww,
Ok noted, but really don't be like me.
I'm too into the mkts, alittle crazy I agree.

But really this is how real pros do it, we are a little crazy.
always burn out candle both ends.
Can't change bad habits. But the money makes it worthwhile I guess.

Do this regularly , then listen to those gurus teaching , break here buy or divergence sell. and you know how much they know.
This is blood , sweat ,tears money.
then when someone like kervael goes astray, they wanna hang him.
poor chap.

Ohaiyogozaimusu, buddies, where's you going today?
By the way any one fainted already?

Sold 3 @ 1.4861
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  #1173  
Old Jan 31, 2008 7:28pm
fti
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Position recap
s1 1.4833
s1 1.4838
s3 1.4849
s3 1.4857
s3 1.4861

s1 1.9884
s1 1.9899

and may I erase yesterdays chat now please.
If you want to you should print it now

wrong horse
USDYEN moving
Zoran, noway for me to let those babies be unattended.
if you must you must.

Who was it that said.

"one of the worst things in life was
to go to bed and sleep not,
and to wait for some one or some thing that comes not"

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 7:47pm
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  #1175  
Old Jan 31, 2008 8:21pm
fti
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Hi,
critical up sweep noted,
watching shadow significance now
bot 2 GBP @ 1.9919
Nothing in GBP due to GBP on up ranged in tight congedtion , testing top

possible up zone testing in EUR.

up sweep non significant
awaiting down sweep for directions
possitions are still maintained
market gone slow dancing
now market testing support
technically insignificant, with trader short EUr
Volatility is slow to crawl , no change in position for now
its a long long day

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 9:13pm
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  #1177  
Old Jan 31, 2008 9:22pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gfsr View Post
Hello fti,

what does "bot" mean in the above?

Thanks.
bl
stands for "bought"

In inter bank we normally speak in USD terms
but for non complication here meaning pair
regards

Ps: last position i held 2 lots short GBP/USD @ 1.9884 and 1.9899
decided to cut loss at 1.9919 buying back 2 lots GBP/USD

Now the market is caught dead in a congestion, probably due to friday blues.
waiting of before lunch swing for tokyo zone.
what a long long day.

Last edited by fti, Jan 31, 2008 9:32pm
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  #1179  
Old Jan 31, 2008 9:49pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gfsr View Post
Thanks, fti,

So the battle in gbpusd was retreated, so that we can fight another battle latter? was this due to the lacklustre movements and activity we are having atm and the movement didn't happen quickly in our favour(actually it went the other way) and had to abandon(no rescue)?

and btw what do u mean by market "form"?

Thanks... still watching..

cool..
bl
Hi gfsr

battle still on going
now 14 min to Tokyo lunch

Position was abandon as was overstaying in tight range with USD/Yen signalling possible test to down side , therefore overloaded for up sweep
anyway it was GBp second attempt after taking small profit on 6 lots earlier.
trying to preserve capital if significant opportunity arises, so far none yet
Market form is reading of the dance tempo
currently caught in slow up spreading pattern
heavy shadowing on the tops signalling sweeps attempts but without substance.
Note the cautious stance taken due to trading from thursday into friday.

Daily form is trending up, with possible topping possibility.
Cautious also as trading against major trend.
Now trend direction is sideways , with short chart confirmation side to spread
ie bearish form on short charts

Therefore as there is no impending threat, operating to rescue position on swings.
But volatility is trading at marketmaker spread, therefore adding to position is not advisable until clearer signs appear.

Situation becomes dangerous if tops on EUR are taken out.
Therefore still waiting with patience.

regards
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  #1181  
Old Jan 31, 2008 10:03pm
fti
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OK back from lunch
but is "unable to connect to order server"
efx just in case anyone is interested
about to use four letter words on them.
starting with cook

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 12:04am
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  #1183  
Old Feb 1, 2008 12:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Sleep is a symptom of caffeine deprivation.
Hi northpro,
and "unable to connect to order server" is a symptom of...

glad that your still around.

regards

great access at last now 1:05 sg time
market at 1.4860/61 from 1.4871/72 at lunch

position recap

s1 14833
s1 14838
s3 14849
s3 14857
s3 14861

well lets say the devil is unhappy with me and is the culprit.
Never mind wasn't active anyway.
but what if it took out the high and I had no access.
oh bad to think like that, next time it happens again I 'll use the magic words, cook.
I mean if that doesn't work , there's 3 more words I could use.LOL
ok enough
back to markets
oh thanks , suddenly I discovered mkt depth.lol
now I can see flow, only lets see if its real

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 12:25am
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  #1185  
Old Feb 1, 2008 12:35am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
I am always here fti...

I've always used indicators when I traded, so the naked method is new to me and I feel I am learning everything all over...I have to shed my mind of all previous habits and have been staring at naked screens now until my eyes are popping out of my head.....so sleep...that would be nice, but naps will do for now.

"Consciousness is that annoying period between naps"
Hi northpro,
its good for you, soon you'll be able to walk without aid.
no pain no gain
anymore coffee?

and I am begining to feel like ice burg, only small tip on surface,LOL
the rest umderwater, lol
after lunch 1 wave down then a, b
is there c, how high?
checking ammo pouch now.
sold 5 @ 14861 looking at USDYEN & gbp
abandoning that depth thingy, overcrowding my screen

volatility still small, but now feels like mushroom flooting in water, lol
ah Leighsww You're back
the Market m is dribbling the market like basketball.
woh , this cannot go on foever. the london boys will be back soon , ggotta try to scale some headroom ( space) fast.
ahh, now can breath at last.

sheesh. that japanese girl came in showed long sexy legs and spooked the whole cartload of Euro boys.
ah , the iron lady, won't take it sitting down.
wow , getting very clusterfobic
the vols unreal just sweeps
better scale off a bit now
bot 8 @ 57
repeating bot 8 eur @1.4857
sold 8 @ eur 1.48581
dang too fast
bot 10 @ 14863

the dow's drop impeeding the usd recovery now

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 2:18am
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  #1189  
Old Feb 1, 2008 2:25am
fti
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hi
sorry ,too busy to reply just yet
note position size down to short eur 6now
refer thread last page
bot 7 @ 59
repeat bot 7 @ 14859

so efectively long 1 eru @ 1.4859
now

possible interim bottom found. still watching for clearer signs

sold 1 eur @ 1.48705
now effectively squared

didn't do to well.

now watch from afar on where or if the top can form at all.

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 2:42am
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  #1190  
Old Feb 1, 2008 2:48am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
That's cuz we were in the midnight (NY time) maintenance, silly!! It lasts for 5 minutes every night, lol.
Oh sorry, didn't know that . my bad



Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Don't make excuses, you can change bad habits! The question is ... are you willing to? lol :

The way you traded for the banks cannot be the same as trading for yourself. With the bank, you had $500mio to rescue $1mio, most people won't have that kind of capital ratio for rescues (ex: 500 lots to rescue 1 lot), so you have to alter your structure a little bit to accommodate what's feasible for retail traders.

Also, looking at your figures, I thought you told me once not to enter a rescue too early! Do you need another whipping, lol?! :
Oh ok, difficult to be poor. LOL
Yeah but today was very tight, got much profits yesterday. So the carry over was little ego,but I played the dance, really didn't dance too well though.
too eager?
-------------------------

Oh sorry, didn't know that . my bad

regards
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  #1191  
Old Feb 1, 2008 3:09am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Whoever this may concern, lol ...

Okay, earlier I mentioned I had a post to make with more info, so here it is ... here's how to calculate the amount of troops one needs to rescue a trade:

Let's say you put in a scout (one lot) and the trade goes against you. You will have to determine how many troops (lots) you need to re-average your position, so that you are only "X" amount of pips away from the current market price.

Solving for "X" is dependent on several things, in my opinion ... the currency pair and the amount of troops you can spare (your margin/capital) for the rescue.

The optimum would be X = 5 pips, but for some, the amount of lots needed would not be feasible (normally takes 5 lots/troops to rescue 1 lot/scout). So,

Let's take fti's EUR/USD trade ...

He put scout in at 1.4833 .

If it were me, I would have waited and put in my rescue mission at 1.4864. Putting in the rescue mission too early could end up still having the battle moving in the wrong direction which puts your troops farther and farther away from the safety zone (break even point).

Even though 1.4864 would make scout 31 pips in the danger zone, you have to stay calm, don't panic (you've got to have those balls of steel, as fti puts it, lol - yes, even us women must have them), because at some point, there will always be a retracement/pullback in the 5 - 8 pip range you need, to make a rescue successful (I have been testing this out and every rescue has been successful for me.)

So, now to determine how far you can afford "X" to be at ...

1.4864 x 3 troops + 1.4833 (scout) = 5.9425 / 4 = 1.4856

X would then = 8 pips

Just for the heck of it, let's say we were 50 pips away from scout ...

1.4883 x 3 troops + 1.4833 (scout) = 5.9482 / 4 = 1.4871

X would then = 13 pips

That might be a little too far for comfort (because nothing is guaranteed due to market randomness), thus it would take 5 lots/troops for X to = 8 pips from the market price. However, that's a lot of troops for most people to have to risk, so if you're not in a position to put that many lots in for a rescue, I would suggest that you use .5 lots (for scout), then you only need 2.5 lots for the rescue to be at 8 pips (.5 x 5 = 2.5). Hopefully, however, you will never have to rescue at 50 pips or more away

Another reason I chose EUR/JPY as my baby/kingdom/dance floor/what-have-you is because it can make an 8 pip rescue in a much shorter amount of time with no stress for me, lol. And I don't have to babysit all night!!

Again, in my opinion (and what fti had told me once, however for some reason he must have forgotten :, lol), the key is not to get too anxious to the point you are entering rescue troops too early (remember the lesson on "patience," fti? lol).

Anyway, this is my take on it and how I've been trading fti's method. However, fti and I have different temperaments, so even though he's been my teacher, we approach things a little differently

Okay, I'm off to eat dinner now. Below is my chart showing the scenario of where I might have rescued and exited that trade.

P.S. If I've made any incorrect math calculations, please correct me (I told you before, math is not my specialty, haha).
In essense you are not wrong.
BUT
the above entry was rescues 1 for 1 once and then I was poised for attack.
as I didn't wanted to go into rescue mode in against trend top picking scenerio.
When the opportunity came, apparantly I detected someting amist as per the crosses against USDYEN, which is happening quite often this week.
anyway the rest of the story is generally posted here.

You see, in all truthfulness I am still imposing wrinkles to the "feel"
as like you rightfully mentioned, I am no longer a bank.
But be aware that when i presented the said to you, i was aware of my situation as well as that you are trading small. So therefore the toning down of the rescue and attack strategy.
Please empatise with me that I am very aggressive in my approach and really do feel the difficulity of toning down. Nevertheless I also am preparing to be coming into the market in not a small way,if I can find a comfortable house to deal from. but of course not like a bank .
So my approach would mostly be in comforming to my old style.
You know the old dog thingy.LOL

In essence , I think your style of MM may be more palatable to the traders here esp when they are new to the approach. In that perspective , I believe you are right.

One other thing that I would like to point out is that with your rescue approach, You may find that you can be trapped in long leg runs , which can run against the major trend sometimes, and you may find that the rescue can snowball as well. It is not often tat that scenerio may present, nevertheless they do occur. Therefore although your approach of distance due to size constrains is not wrong. be aware of the possibilities. In all essense , the dance is paramount. That's what brings in the bread.
the MM is a managing tool, to protect and use as advantage MM.

KISS (Keep it simple and strong.) There's too much to deal with when in markets , so keep sharp and nimble.


welcome back.

regards
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  #1192  
Old Feb 1, 2008 3:27am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi ALL,
the purpose of this exercise.

is to highlight the difficulties faces in markets and the confusion it creates in your minds.

The important lesson if I may highlight for your training is the reselience & dedication that is required to trade professionally vis a vis, trading by indicators and from predictive analatics. Unfortunately the market didn't run, so you haven't seen the other perspective of managing a "dead in the water positions" nor the aggression required in a run for the bank scenerio.

I guess many are tired for now so i shall continue on my own for my personal simulation until NY comes in.

Thanks for your ride along. For those who actually took positions and are trapped in them, I do hope that its small and you can try to unwind them at least damage as possible.
@ Zoran
When you awaken , do shout out and I'll see if I can be of assistance.
Mkts is clearly in a tigt range. so much strategies are available.

regards

Please post any question or comments at will.
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  #1193  
Old Feb 1, 2008 3:51am
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Hi Leighsww,

How do I print the blotter for the benefit of those who may like to dissect the trading, as there is no time imprint in the threads.

If I can print the blotter, then I can send to those who ask.

sorry still very new to efx platform.

regards

Ps any questions, any one?
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  #1197  
Old Feb 1, 2008 4:25am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Firstly, I would like to welcome Leigh back. Glad to see a few whips being cracked again.



Hi fti

When we were discussing AOW, there were many questions about who the enemy was. I think that the confusion we experience as a result of stress (fight or flight instinct), fear and anger when a trade is against us, is the enemy.

That is when you need to take on a warrior mentality (you call it balls of steel) to fight these confusing emotions in order to beat the enemy. Am I correct in my assumptions?
Hi dutchangel,
Yes , basically althought the market is essentially the battlefield.
The main fighting is in the mind of the trader.
Therefore mindset is paramount.
But mindset alone cannot do anything to the situation thats developing in the markets, but just hold the trader intact. To compliment the right mindset is the required capitalisation and proper division and mobilisation of said. So game style and nimbleness is complimentary to the mindset.

In bank environments and open outcry systems , traders have others to benchmark against in the same market environments. In those environments, even wrong mindset can be corrected by direstional herding moves if trader ego is incheck. Even if feel was wrong, the noisy hints can awaken the trader that he may be out paced and if trader was nimble position can be corrected.
If trader has personality conflicts witnin environment or of personal nature, then all trading facalties within the trader is impaired.

Notice that trader like leeson and the recent kervael had personal problems ( mostly household), which could have impaired their trading. We must realise that these can trade the sizes they trade because of past performances. Its funny how mindset impairment can create disasterous scenerios for traders.
So short answer is yes, what you mentioned is right.

But most individual traders have little training and exposures in this respect, esp in dealing with snowballing risk and leverage dangers. Thats why MM is important aspect as well.
Notice why most of the "rogue: traders were futures traders?
thats because of disorientation by leverage, if you like. Heard of any spot FX rogue trader, mostly do not happen dur to check and balances inposed by dealing enviroment.
ie 1st class info+enviroment, services=monitoring by dealers not directly involved.

regards

Notice , during this exercise, when my positin skewed up, my risk had to be in check otherwise the disorientation could have had me unduely exposed.Experience does help allow us to feel the market a little better.
Noticed how when the frustration build, I had to re align the GBP positioning , to yield to the EUR. and how on the 1st sign of technical danger , my over stayed snowballed EUR positions were cleared out lock stock before the legged up swing.
Ability to read market form is part of the training. Its hard to develop, unless by experience. And also stamina and dedication to trading is required. Seems alot to make a buck doesn't it.

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 4:36am
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  #1198  
Old Feb 1, 2008 4:40am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Do you have a "live" account? I don't think the "demo" account can access the login for your trading reports.

I'm about to go to bed (hubby's waiting), so I probably can't wait for you to respond, so if you do have access to the login for your account then you will need to do a screen capture for the Summary Report or Trades Report (i can't remember the exact names, as I would have to login to look, but don't have time right now to do it). If you find it on your own, don't forget to Photoshop out your identity now, Mister Mouse!)

If you're on demo account still and don't have access to the reports, then someone else may have to give you that answer, although I don't believe I ever saw a way to get a blotter from within the Navigator platform itself.
@ Leighsww,
Ok noted and thanks

Goodnight.

regards
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  #1202  
Old Feb 1, 2008 5:40am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchAngel View Post
Hi fti

Thanks for your reply. Trading has its moments. I got into a hectic trade in Dec 2007, where I ended up about 800 pips down. The swap alone came to 750 usd. I was in the trade for about a week when I decided to give up the battle as I was emotionally drained. I took 170 usd loss in the end, only to discover if I had fought a couple of hours longer, I would have made a good profit. But the stress and frustration beat me that round. I don't use leverage - too scary for me.
@ DutchAngel,
You are right again there, Trading does have its moments.
For the experience you encountered, if it was me, thankfulness should be the word, that although it was so bad , you had the stamina to see it thru and made a big loss a small one. Of course like you said, from hindsight , it would probably been a windfall had you stuck with it a little more, Sure, but thats from hindsight, in reality you have saved your capital in a bad fight and have carved the opportunity to fight again, in preserving your capital and Now with a little more experience and a little more prudent.

Losing money is no big deal in trading. Losing the ability to financial trade again is the pits of it. But truly losing the moral, that ones incurable.
It develops in the person a complex to haunt them for the rest of their lives.
Remember subcounciously, you never ever forget your trainings and experiences. Akin to I believe you would never forget the presentations that I have presented here. But if you can counciously use what you have learned to better your trading form, then thats the crown.

One attribute that traders must develop, is the ability to let go.
To unwind. To laugh at the worst and laugh at the best.

Dr Murray Banks taught me this, when I was a struggling dealer..
"whatever be your goals in life brother,
look upon the donut and not upon the hole."

Stay mentally strong.
regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 11:45am
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  #1203  
Old Feb 1, 2008 5:50am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gfsr View Post
Firstly, would like to thank you for doing this live example of battles(or the dance). Having only seeing this for the first time, it's an eye-opener and you are right in saying you need to have resilience & dedication to trade this way... like, there were times that I thought the positions looked vulnerable or getting away. but u rescue in time(by injecting more troops). clever.

Is this dance today, not a normal dance today.. I mean market wise, b/c the markets seems to be very dead and quiet?

I don't have any other questions atm. Though, would love to see the timestamps of the dance to digest more b/c I missed the beginning of the battle.

anyway, thanks again.
hopefully we will get to see more of this dancing again. ;-)
cool. cheers,
bl
Hi gsfr,
Thanks for your kind compliments.
Really there wasn't anything clever there, but was necessary.

Ther is no such thing as a normal trading day.
Everyday the challenges are different, and the trader has to use their wits and experience, plus training tempered with a little luck in taming the markets. To day is inside day and very tight in range. Quiet like you said is right.

I would try to see if I could extract the blotter. What I have on hand now is the reads after 12:00pm Sg time. Seems efx reset or compiles the system as thats their day switch over , coincidentally is noon sg time. which is midnight NY time. However I will see what can be done about that.

regards
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  #1204  
Old Feb 1, 2008 5:57am
fti
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Hi All,
Ok it dinner time for me. Lets see what the cat drags in , during NY.

For those of you who stayed watching, I am sorry that this was not very interactive. Would have created more condusive feel for you, if it was.

Good Fortune to All

regards

enclosed What I could get from the blotter.
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  #1207  
Old Feb 1, 2008 9:46am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
fti

Just to clarify, when you are buying you are effectively closing your short entries.

On my MT4 platform, I can buy and sell in the opposite directions but it does not cancel out the other trades. I need to close them manually.

However, on my CMC platform, I can only trade in one direction so to close a trade I just enter in the opposite direction.

I assume that your platform is similar to the CMC one.
Hi Zoran

yes zoran that is right.
this was the reason why I came on to try efx out.
The other one was supposed to be Oanda, which I felt so uncomfortable and disorientated with.
So CMC is same I guess.

MT4 and FXCM which I had tried is lock on to order to order liquadition, very cumbersome blotting. but the chartings good.

Actually the process is known as internal book matching of trades. Which is how all spot fx deals are blotted.

So how's your exposure, is the position ok?

regards
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  #1209  
Old Feb 1, 2008 10:51am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
MT4 is quite flexible but it just needs to be programmed.

The EUR position was rescued so both EUR and cable were profitable. I'm still debating whether this can work over the longer term. Leigh had some very good points. We are not pros and I have always had better success trading on the longer timeframes. It allows me to sleep.

I found the trick is to size the position correctly, so entries are smaller but profits are generally larger (so it balances out). I know this has been discussed before but I can't seem to remember why you discouraged it.
Hi Zoran,
Glad to hear that your positions are good.
Yes , your point is noted.
That was the reasons why I didn't wanted to show the complete methodology in the first instance. As I discussed with Lieghsww in the very begining. This can be very dangerous in the wrong hands.
My initial intensions was to present the basics of the mindset required as well to point to true basic and applicable Technical analysis, the old school , if you like.
So when I was asked to show MM. It is difficult not to bring Sun Zi text to the fore.
My Chapter 3 is actually not for non professional use. So after this session. I guess many may understand my hesitance in presenting it. In reality, training on this methodology needs much practice and experience to internalise. So like I said before, erroneously applied, it could take your heads off.

In trading profitably, nothing is cast in stone. Matching trader mindset and personality to the style does play a great part in the successfully carrying it.
That is why I had asked that you traders could find your own match, as I cannot be privy to each and everyone of your individuality and skills levels. Not on the internet.
Nevertheless I have given much for the foundational requirements for your own quest and hope that it has help many.

regards

PS Take the volatility experienced in the last 4 hours in the NY sector thats on now. If you saw the MM involved and the managing of that, it may just sent you into shock. Well if any learning did come out of this, you would appreciate the nimbleness and craziness required in trading professionally. the reason why many dealers burn out.
Probably the most striking lesson for individual traders is about size of position, gearing (leverage ) and the destructiveness of greed. Many carelessly trade from a large base positions and quickly find themsleves in full risk disorientation when in changed volatility situations. The cause, by careless greed and or lack of experience and knowledge. Also the access to reliable mode of markety access , of which I am finding difficulty to tap onto since retirement. Now I am exploring, if this is a viable alternative access.
Oh and about if this is actually viable, well I can only say that I know no other true pros who doesn't do it this way, the major difference being risk appetite. If of any relevance , that I have been doing this for close to 26 years from ranks and files before retiring.

Last edited by fti, Feb 1, 2008 11:30am
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  #1260  
Old Feb 4, 2008 2:45am
fti
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Hi ALL
@ Leighsww,
thanks for your effort in showing all, the mathematics and skew characteruistices of showballing positions. You are mathematically correct. I am listening and will be providing you new perspectives as you progress.

@ ALL
Remember that what you are seeing is mathematics and skew characteristics at work. Its only part of the process, ie the rescue vectors. Please do not concluded that this is the holy grail to your riches. Like I said Its only a portion of the trade equation. Try and relate the given in trade scenerios and you will begin to appreciate its power, but do not neglect the pitfalls of the analysis as well. Think and rationalise its workings and discuss. I am watching.

regards
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  #1261  
Old Feb 4, 2008 2:54am
fti
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Hi ALL,

About an issue brought forward by some.
Time frame
-----------
intraday vs short term vs long term positions
In my mind there is no such things, if you refer my previous postings.
There is however only daylight and overnight (carry) positionings.

daylight is to mean that the position is actively managed. There is no distinction between that in relations to the sun or the moon, ie time of day.
A daylight trade could last for days, so long as you are actively dancing. It all depends on your stamina.

overnight is to mean for positions exposed when the trader is not actively managing. this positions can be for days weeks or months, where suits. These are really trend rides.

If you try to exercise rescues in overnight positions,
All I can say is GOOD LUCK.
You will need it very much, as you are not so different from gambling with calculated risk, nevertheless gambling. And normally, it would come with a pre-concieved view of where the markets are heading and what the longer trends should be.
If the short trend fails, then you are positioning for the long trend and should be right. If you are positioned against the long trend then actually you will tell yourself that you are are actually positioned for the even bigger picture. If all else fails , then the market is illogical and manipulated by the biggest boys.

A predictive stance of using ABC, XYZ indicators and divergence, convergence and crossings of lines and indicators.
All the mentioned lines and indicators would be of help to you in such an endeavor.
Further newer indicators , like hat and rabbits, my magic bullet, or when satan is crossing youranus, this and that , as well as whatever you might like to call it, can help you hold to your position exposure and composure. Also you may like to call it the Bigger Dance Steps, The Big Boys dance, Dancing with the big Bands or Sleep dancing to hold that it is in line with what fti taught.

In fact it is all self deception, but nevertheless, it is comfortable.
In all truthfulness all attempts to analyse have stopped except that it feels like "the dance". I mean, look, we have all ANALYSED and the market must come in our favour. Its just noise for now, so lets "BITE THE BULLET" like fti taught, and hang on for dear life, there's HOPE still, to come out shining.

Yes we like to trade short term positions, if thats not working , we can convert them to long term positions. and if thats no good still, we are actually positioned for the next millennium move. Look I've lots of $$. Anyways what goes up must come down and vice versa.

Then there comes along a nick's leeson and a kerveel and dang that fti, for teaching us how to average positions.
Actually the term is professionally known as "dollar cost averaging" and fund managers who are losing customers monies always uses this to rationalise their losses.

Isn't this what fti's teaching?

fti: HUH, really?? so rigid?? think and read carefully.

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 3:29am
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  #1266  
Old Feb 4, 2008 6:28am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
I understand the MT4 ordering system being cumbersome although I saw some benefits to it - mainly being able to have positions in both directions. I ended up developing an MM technique that revolves around it. Though your system would work better with my other account.

If you are still evaluating brokers, I'll PM a suggestion. They are a fairly big company and have offices in most regions. The owner is one of London City's richest people and he was going to float 1/3 of the company for ?800M. I think there is a bit more security there if going in big.

The platform is a bit bloated and charting memory is not good, but for naked charts, it may be fine. I tend only to use MT4 for charting.

One other thing, the chart you posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post1828772 . Does it contain the 5sma or something else?

Here is a lady and her legs playing a tune that I believe you like (you mentioned it once in a post). Please enjoy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYSWvI4aV2w
Hi zoran,
Enjoyed the youtube much, thanks.
David did a pro job , but the lady's live finger jamming is refreshing.

The line you see on the chart is the hourly benchmark.

enclosed I think you can't get this anywhere.
is super fingerings.enjoy.
Sorry about the compression, the file's too large


regards
Attached Files
File Type: zip T_001.zip (1.44 MB, 704 views)

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 6:52am
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  #1268  
Old Feb 4, 2008 10:19am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Thanks fti. So we must learn the moves ourselves. No analysis, indicators or anything, just the present action on a naked chart with our developing minds. Perhaps I got it right from the beginning? I spent my first year trading by looking at the market... entering when it looked right.

Sometimes it worked and other times it didn't but most ended up being a loss as I tended to get greedy and didn't take profit when I should have. I tended to go for the home runs rather that taking a base at a time. Funnily enough, I could feel it inside but didn't react.

There was a period where I started taking 30-60 pips (exiting if uncomfortable) and my account started to grow. However, without realising it at the time, my confidence would increase and my self destructive nature succumbed to a bad entry on a violent move. This would take away a good months+ work. Now with a new MM strategy and AOW mindset, this can be overcome.

So why analyse then? Why do you look at the daily? To determine the trend? Why does Leigh have fractal thingy's on her chart? I also remember you mentioning to check the action at a certain price level historically. I had been doing that for six months prior to this thread with great success. But that's still analysis, and accordingly self deception. Or is the point that it's just a guide? But of course to think otherwise is true deception - but surely most people realise that?
Hi zoran,
Why analyse?

Well we analyse , so that we can capitalise the event, when the market begins to move in the manner that its expected to, from our analysis.

We analyse so that, we can time the progress and skew of our exposures to reposition ourselves to improve position cost in the trend of markets.

We analyse so that, when the market tells us square in our face of what is probable , that we can to dance with the market's rhythm, to claw the $$ in.

We analyse so that, we can look intelligent to others, and that we are not dunces making good money.

We analyse so that,we can justify our risk taking as we must feel inteligent, to satisfy our own ego.

We analyse so that, we can decorate our charts and have eye candy, instead of looking at plain vanilla charts and feel unintelligent.

We analyse so that, when ego and predictive fortune telling is proven wrong, that we can keep hoping and fighting instead of regrouping and preserving capital.

We analyse so that we can deflect the blame on XYZ numbers and ABC indicators for our course of action. Then its their fault that we lost, not ours.

As the trader, you have the choice to determine your reasons for analysis.
Why do you analyse?

I hope you understand.

regards.

PS: Some traders analyse and immortalise XYZ numbers and ABC indicators so that they need not analyse.

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 10:38am
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  #1270  
Old Feb 4, 2008 11:12am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Thanks fti. So we must learn the moves ourselves. No analysis, indicators or anything, just the present action on a naked chart with our developing minds.
Hi Zoran ,
After answering your last question, Let me attempt to answer your first question.

Now to say that I said, no analysis, no indicators or anything is putting too much into my mouth.
And if you read carefully thats not the case. I was explaining about the aBc number and XYZ indicators. Probably I didn't articulated well about the hat & rabbits , nor about the constellations.

Anyways, there's analysis and there's ANALYSIS.
and there indicators and there's INDICATORS.
but in trading profits & LOSSES are calculate in currencies, not otherwise.
I am sorry that I cannot explain as well as hotsforwords.com can, but I really hope that you would try to understand a little after,my having explained so very much already.

regards
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  #1271  
Old Feb 4, 2008 11:26am
fti
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Hi Zoran,
OK,
Stand by for a rewrite of those passages for your understanding.

Hi ALL,

About an issue brought forward by some of the posters about transposing the analysis in longer term charts.
Time frame
-----------
About intraday vs short term vs long term positions
In my mind there is no such things, if you would refer my previous postings.
To me, There is however only daylight and overnight (carry) positionings.

daylight is to mean that the position is actively managed. There is no distinction between that in relations to the sun or the moon, ie time of day. So in reality , so long as the positions were actively managed, then in my books that is deemed daylight trading.
A daylight trade could last for days, so long as you are actively dancing.ie managing the exposure. It all depends on your stamina.

overnight positions is to mean for positions exposed when the trader is not actively managing. this positions can be held for days weeks or months, where suits. These are really trend rides. in capitalising on the trend runs.

If you have bad overnight positions, The worst strategy is for you to
try to exercise rescues .

All I can say is GOOD LUCK because to attempt to rescues on overnight positions would require you to snowball your positions, and not managinf them closely would put those snowballed possitions to considerable risk if we were wrong in our expectations.
You will need Luck very much, as you are not so different from gambling with calculated risk, nevertheless it is still gambling. And normally, to operate in this mode, it would require that the trader have pre-concieved view of where the markets are heading and what the longer trends should be.

When a trader's short term trend position fails and incur losses, then he will carry the into the long term perspective and believe that it should be right to recover his losses. If this positions against the long attempt fails then the trader will find for himself all sorts of analitical excuses to maintain the exposure of longer time frame to hope for a recovery When all else fails , then the blame would be that the market is illogical and manipulated by the biggest boys.

In the course of his mindset during this struggle, the trader would use predictive stance of using ABC, XYZ indicators and divergence, convergence and crossings of lines and indicators as excuses to maintain that is position would ultimately be correct.
All the mentioned lines and indicators would be of help to him in such an endeavor.
He may Further introduce newer indicators , like hat and rabbits, my magic bullet, or when satarn is crossing uranus, this and that , as well as any collection of analysis, which can help him justify to hold to his position exposure and composure. Also he may resort to coining new excuses of Bigger Dance Steps, The Big Boys dance, Dancing with the big Bands or Sleep dancing just to justify to holding that it is in line with what fti taught.

All these desperation mindsets are In fact it is all self deception, but nevertheless, it is comfortable to the trader for peace of mind.
In all truthfulness all attempts to analyse have stopped except that it feels like "the dance".But in reality there is no dancing except for trading in hope. Look, there is the justification that he hasl ANALYSED the situation (while holding on to a loss situation) and the believe that the market must come in his favour. He would justify that the loss was due to just noise for now, so with that excuse he concludes that he should "BITE THE BULLET" like fti taught ( which is to twist fti's doctrines), and hang on to the positions for dear life, believing that there's HOPE still, to come out shining, although the markets movement have proved otherwise.

Yes we like to trade short term positions, if thats not working ,traders tends to convert them to long term positions. and if thats no good still, they would tend to carry on while fully indulging in hope of recovery. The mindset is "Look I've lots of $$. Anyways what goes up must come down and vice versa."

Then there comes along rogue traders and blaming fti's for teachings of how to impliment average positions.
Actually the term is professionally known as "dollar cost averaging" and fund managers who are losing customers monies always uses this to rationalise their losses.

Isn't this what fti's presenting?

fti: No definately not , like I have always presented, rigidity of MM and of MO can lead for distructive mindset, that can in fact disorientated the trader to the risk of ruin. Having a longer term strategy only increases the risk that the trader will snowball the risk without carefully and nimbly managing it. It has always been my policy that overnight positions be only allowed to be a fraction of the daylight trading position. if snowballing risk is to be implimented on longer term positions,(ie overnight positions) then that, is a total contridiction of my doctrine and MO.

regards


regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 12:39pm
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  #1274  
Old Feb 4, 2008 12:28pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
fti, I think you are clear in a lot of ways, although the problem being that you tend to contradict yourself
Zoran,
Please quote where I have contradicted myself for discussion.

regards.

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 12:43pm
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  #1279  
Old Feb 4, 2008 1:24pm
fti
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Member Since Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
.

So your ladies, are they just price patterns and market action? Shadows, legs, coils, etc... do they map to wedges, flags, triangles, rounding tops and bottoms, broadening patterns, etc? Are they compound candle formations? Do they work or am I on the wrong track?
As I await to discover my contradictions, I will answer this question of yours.

Yes they are compounded variations of the bar chart and candlebar patterns.
The analysis takes into account the time, volatility and price bar relationships, which are normally not considered by many textbook analyst. The differing discriptions of the change in the volatility and behavioral extensions prompts to the possible robustness of the existing pattern and its possible mutations to other patterns.

If you like, he's one example.
In the formation of a downward pointing flag,
what is the signifivcance of aan outside bar key reversal signify, when that happens at the tip turn of the flag?
What is the robustness of the pattern when such is detected?
What is the possibility that what you are looking at is not a downward pointing flag but a pre-curser to another formation?
Is the market still to be considered bearish?
What is the significance of the key reversal bar to the whole pattern?
Is it continuation pattern or is it a reversal pattern?
Again what is the significance if the outside key reversal on a downward pointing flag, if the bar that marked the support was a short bar in relations to the key reversal?
Is this reversal or continuation?

This is what I call analysis.
So all you may see is a downward pointing flag , right?
But have you considered that after you have concluded of the pattern formed , that it may mutate over time and revert to some other formation instead?
This is only at basic levels of pattern formations, there's lots more where that comes from. Therefore my dealing room, read of the shape and weighting of the compound formations.

I hope this highlights that you must go indepth study of the possible formations, not only the classic patterns that occurs. Incidentally, are you aware of how you determine if your patterns have been invalidated? I had in much earlier posting tried to highlight this issue for your education. Seems you didn't understand.

regards
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  #1282  
Old Feb 4, 2008 1:53pm
fti
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@ David & leighsww,

Thanks, basically, I think you've got the message, right.

The analysis is not a major issue, in so far as the Zoran is concerned. I am most worried for is experiment to induce the spiral position sizing into daily analysis. From professional perspective, I highly discourage that, as the risk to ruin is very high, due to non close monitoring of market possibilities.

regards

Further if such is insisted, I recommend very very deep pockets, and probably balls of titanium, to survive the stress. LOL

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 2:03pm
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  #1289  
Old Feb 4, 2008 3:07pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
BUT, here is an example

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=882

You mention

"About Elliot,Please be aware that I use the elliot studies true to Elliots 1st published findings as in the compiled working papers of "The major works of R.N Elliot"

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=897

You mention

"Yes, there are many ways to mutate Elliots work, I stay to his original basics as My intent of its use is neither to sell books nor services."

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=902

I ask whether his original workings are worth reading... as you indicated that you use it. You then say

"Worth reading? Yes for general knowledge but NO for usable value."

Contradiction

You mention that you use elliot (is 1st post) but then suggest there is no usable value. What have I misunderstood? Why do you use it if there is no value?

PS. See they take too much time to find...
Hi Zoran,
I see that you have misunderstood.

Ok let me explain and see if you still hold that there is a contradiction.

In my course of studies in Technical analysis,
My foundation was in Dow Theory and basic chart patterns as I have explained. ( advance and compounding bar chart patterns.)
As in the learning curve of all Technical Analyst, Elliott and Gann Studies would become part of the research process.
In so far as Elliott studies, from indepth study and research ,the conclusion was that there is no major value encompassed within his findings, except for the fact that, not so unlike all wave pattern studies, he defined and developed the studies based on impluse and retacements. There are many schools of thought and variation, all promoting success in its predictive capacity. However in the professional forex circles, much of the Elliottians have not been able to secure , good repute as capable traders/ analyst by virtue of performance.

Nevertheless, Elliots definations of impluse and retracement waves have found favour in its capacity as side analysis to bar chart general waves counts.
For me, its value is found in the recognising of impulse waves, in all the chart time frames that I use.
The retrace waves have no analitical values by the general defination of it been in 3 wave patterns that can contract as well as expand. Further non usefulness is the extended defination that the retracements can take forms of zig zag and double zigzags or plateaus.. Not withstanding the fact of alternate counts on the initial counts. This only suggest for curve fitting exercise from hindsight therefore yielding no predictive value as was the selling point of this form of analysis.
Further, the wave progression of 3 impluse and conditions for the two retarce counts , displayed the same ambiguity to be of professional trading value. If you are a student of Elliot studies, its latter day introduction of the 7 wave counts further drove this research findings into further confusion and splitting the students in many camps of convictions.

However, Elliotts initial works of the impulse and retracement finding does have correlations with the basic bar pattern studies that impluse and retacements have synegistics properties in compounding patterns, ie the leg counts in the bar chart patterns. So in that sense, the initial Elliott wave definations are acceptable general analysis.

This the reasons for me suggesting that Elliot studies are within the scope of what I use. But because of superior analytical robustness and versatility in bar analysis compared to the Elliott wave predictive curve fits, it has superceded the Eilliott wave studies usefulness, for profession use. This being the reason that I would recommend it for general knowledge, than for its usefulness.

I hope you have a better understanding now.

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 3:19pm
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  #1296  
Old Feb 4, 2008 4:27pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Sorry fti, I do not know what an outside bar key reversal is. So can you recommend any books that explain this method of analysis? What you have mentioned above is exactly what I have been asking for a while. It is the missing piece for me.

With regard to the patterns I use, this knowledge was obtained from "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends 8th Ed." by Edwards and Magee. Price pattern invalidation was not really an issue as entry was determined at pattern confirmation. So if the pattern was ever invalidated then that's fine as entry would not have occured. Invalidation could be determined after entry and one would presumably exit.
Hi Zoran,
I hope that you would not be insulted, but I ask because of the fact that you are reading compound bar chart formations without knowledge of even dual bar formations that I mentioned. How is this possible?
I hope that you will get your basic bar formations up to mark before attempting the MO,MM stuff. This is because the MO, MM can do nothing to you benefit, unless you either learn can read bar or candlestick charts at basic levels.

I list some source of info for your education,
these are old books and manuals, I am not current in the elementary levels info. If anyone can help with new editions or books , I would appreciate some assistance here.

reread thread #49, #51

Try,

Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts"
John R Hill
Commodity Research Institute, Ltd (1979)
-This one's good
---------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis of Commodity Futures.,1980
Ken H Sharleen,
copyrights, Chartwatch,
Fulton House 1700,
345, North Canal Street.
Chicago , Illinois 60606,USA.
-This one's Ok
---------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide
by John J. Murphy - 1998
- This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.
--------------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis Explained:
by Martin J. Pring
- This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.
----------------------------------------------------------

or goto
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

but site is very elementary, and beware of salemen.
regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 4, 2008 4:40pm
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  #1311  
Old Feb 5, 2008 2:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Try this website. Its pretty good.

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

Same patterns may have different names by different traders/authors but they are more or less talking about the same type of pattern plays.

Fti,

Is this the reason for you not to have any indicators on charts? That you are actually reading the chart-pattern formations or what you called market form? Then monitoring it to see if it will manifest or evolve into some other patterns that indicates continuation or reversal? Is this what you mean by dancing with the wolves?

Btw, how valid are the patterns that you mentioned like pennants, flags? How about H&S and double/triple tops & bottoms? These are commonly used patterns and tend to fail most often then not.

Example: taken from the website mentioned above. The results for Pennant:-

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): Not applicable
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 2%; 4%
Average rise/decline: 25%; 19%
Throwback/pullback rate: 47%; 31%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 60%; 51%
* The performance results for pennants are based on the short-term price swing, not the change from the breakout to the ultimate high or low as in most other chart patterns.

Note:- The results are based on stock market and not tested on the forex.
Hi sitoca,
Thanks for helping out with a site for reference.
I haven't ha time to explore it out in totality, but generally it seems quite good.

Market form takes into consideration a few other sidekicks apart from the conventional chart pattern formations, in essence the volatility scales and the time scales. Basically what you described is correct.
However, there are not rules cast in stone , so a feel for the local characteristics as well as behavorial abnormalities couple with the understanding of market structure and immediate impact fundamental , would give you a good feel of the market form.
If you apply prudent MM to capital ratios, with a healthy mindset to your trade habits, it should serve you well for taming the markets.
It get better with sufficient exposure and experience.

When entrenched in a trend move, attention is paid to possibilities of reversals and holding to attack when complimentary patterns emerges.

In a nut shell, thats the dance.

Remember that, rigidity of mindset and "magic bullet" convictions is dangerous to your exposure, yield into the FLOW of the sequence of happenings in the charts, romance the 3 kingdoms for a feel of whats happening in the bigger picture for instrument selection.
When in doubt , bail out.
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you.

regards
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  #1312  
Old Feb 5, 2008 2:07am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baron193 View Post
This is a candle one.....
Attachment 84156
Hi baron,

yes, thats a outside day key reversal in candlecharts.
thanks for the example.

regards
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  #1314  
Old Feb 5, 2008 2:17am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by auxesis View Post
leighsww,

The even numbered entries is what got me, my apologies for not going back to the original discussion and reviewing, for the moment I though you were scaling at set levels which didn’t sound right.

The 4hr chart was just for illustration not necessarily an exact setup. While I look to the larger time frames for guidance I trade off the smaller, but the smaller tf’s must conform to the larger picture.

I don’t use indicators but I do like fib’s combined w/prior price levels and some geometric tools that work at times, I have not found any one tool that works 100% but some do hold some weight, imho.

I try to keep my view as simple as possible, we are either moving/trending (north or south) or in consolidation/range and trade accordingly on the retracements or edges. Staying in the same general time frame, when I get it wrong more often than not price will look back once and afford an opportunity to unload and or reverse. View it as a breakout and retest of a range or level and/or trend reverse the 2 retracement off the 1 leg.

This is one of the areas that I have struggled with is the use of a Stop/Reverse not wanting to marry a preconceived view the markets. I stumbled across this thread and then reading this gives me somefresh ideas to a mindset that I have seen used very effectively in the past, just have not understood it fully.

Thanks for the help,

a
Hi auxesis,

Although new to this thread , I had felt your experience in your first posting here.
Nevertheless it behoves you to read this thread in totality for you to sync with whats actually happening .
Mastery in MM only help to sharpen your knife.
But remember that its a double edge sword.
To the uninitiated it may slice their own throats.

regards

PS and just reading doesn't do much, do stop and ponder on that you have read.
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  #1317  
Old Feb 5, 2008 7:17am
fti
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Default SunZi Jazz

Hi All,
Just for entertainment pleasure.
SunZi Jazz.

regards
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  #1320  
Old Feb 5, 2008 10:57am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loonyew View Post
Hi Fti,
i m new to forex as in just 2 weeks...can i know what do u mean by the leg u mentioned? tq
Legs are impulse wave attacks. they can be bull or bears.
enclosed is a chart example.

regards
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  #1345  
Old Feb 6, 2008 4:48am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

No insult whatsoever. I have been asking for the analysis bit for quite some time as it was a missing link. MO and MM is reasonably clear but you could expand further. Please let me know if you have other recommendations to expand this area.

I have ordered the book from Amazon.com.

Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts
John R Hill

Seemed to be only 1 left (though not sure). However, seeing it's coming from the US, it could take a few weeks.

Now do you expect others to know this? I mean, I have my doubts that many here would know about compound formations in bar charts. Also, is there a big difference between bar and candle charts? They both display high, low, open and close (I prefer candles).
Hi Zoran,
Chinese Lunar New Year around the corner , so ......

Well, zoran, learning patterns is a life long pursuit, many researchers have wrinkles on what they observes, some are universal while some are localised to the certain markets. Generally the foundational basics like key reversals , inside outside days, island reversal are common and availble to most analyst. Most good chart pattern books have them. As you observe and learn more will come to the you, and become an additional arsenal in your tool box.There is no necessary to mimic anyone.Anyone who cannot read these cannot be invoked into the grouping of technical analyst, as its the foundation. So please read wide as there are many schools due to wrinkles.

Candle charts are essentially bar charts, the major difference that the candle bar, shades the body of the open and close range. this gives a better visual feel of the ranges of the trading between the open of the bar and where it close. In candle analysis the tails/shadows become visually significant thereby giving some important clues when used in a bundle of bars. For the trained, it is also visible to the bar chartist. At the end od the day, it depends on the user orientation and preference.

These patterns prompts clues of the immediate possibilities, but if used as a predictive model, it kills the analysts nimbleness in mindset. Thats where many analyst fail. So non filial to basics tends lead creative minds to deceive themselves. esp so in rigidity in mindset. Like I said, the patterns grow into each other, one bar at a time . And analysis have to be done to continuily to decepher the incoming info. There's no such thing as one analysis, and the strategy is determined. Of course , lazy and ego traders, system sellers and fortunetellers like to use them that way. Not forgetting people who are not focus in the endeavour.
Well, rigidity is not clearly right or wrong. Its all grey. When dealing with dynamic and changing environments, just that there's a price to pay in the long run.

regards
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  #1347  
Old Feb 6, 2008 5:21am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stewrigh View Post
Hi all,
I found this thread at the weekend and am still trying to get my head round it all. So far I have one question and would appreciate it if someone could explain how the rescue strategy differs from the Martingale.
I tried the Martingale last year and my pockets weren't deep enough - yep you guessed it I was wiped out.
Hi stewrigh,
well martingale and rescue is different in spelling.
On a serious note, martingale is an acceptable MO for rescue. Only that, as you have learned , that the growth spiral grows at a very accelerated pace.

You were wiped out because you were probably trading against the trend and didn't realise it. Maybe if you think about the ordeal carefully , you may be able to find the real reason why you lost the $$.

I suggest a few to help you along.

1. Overexposed vis a vis the capital.
2. Greed
3 Ego
4 disorientation of risk snowball.
5 caught against trend.
6. unskillful in analysis and mindset..................

or was it all of the above?

regards
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  #1349  
Old Feb 6, 2008 5:32am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green_David View Post
Hi, Zoran.

Got confused, right?

fti said no analysis based on indicators, fractacals, fabs whatever. IMHO, that is because these analysis tools tend to have some side-effects on your mind. The side effects are rationazation of the charts i.e. you will wear a colored glass to see the picture. The information will be filtered by your analysis(acctually your belief).

Let's imagine. From the same chart, a trader with a position will see the different thing and get differenet conclustion from another trader withou a position or a opposite-direction position.

Can you tell a wave that is a wave 2 or that is a wave A before hand? No way to tell before wave 3 formed or wave C(note that not wave B).

Here are the two charts EUR/USD daily, and EUR/USD 15 minutes. By looking at daily chart, I can make decision to short E/U today, but the problem is what price and when to short today? Any indicators can tell me the answer?

Fabs? Yes, today' E/U highest price is very close to 31.8% retracement of last friday's high low. But can you gurantee this before hand and place a limit order there? Why not 50%, or 68.2%? That is a coincidence, agree?

I think the only solution to these problems are MM. Wrong timing, rescue if you have more ammunition. Wrong direction, maybe cut loss, or averaging if your wrong position is very very light, the added positions only added controlled risk, or you close the bad positions after rebound.

Maybe I am wrong, dear fti, your comment please.

David
Hi David, on the money, friend.

新年快樂 , 恭喜發財

regards
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  #1350  
Old Feb 6, 2008 5:49am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mijamoto View Post
Fti how do you see yesterday's prediction from european banks that we are going to see euro drop this year to 1.35. Today was a quite big USD gain. Did catch it? :P
Hi mijamoto,
Well generally, banks don't talk. They are the worst to depend on for useable info. However there are always some people in banks, who for reasons known only to themselves , who would like to try at fortune telling.

They can say whatever they like. Maybe if they would broadcast who it is that is saying that, then at least we can be privy to who not to bank with, for credit risk. purposes.
well if they are so insistant , they should put their $$ where their mouth is, then maybe down the road , someone may take over the honours accorded to SocGen.

I don't know if they are right or wrong. But surely I am not gonna listen to fortune tellers, for mindset sanity.

regards
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  #1409  
Old Feb 11, 2008 2:13am
fti
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Hi ALL,

I am having a great Chinese New Year (rat Year).
Will return to discussions once the celebration cools down a little.

Here's something for your ears to chew on, while the dragon flies.

regards
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Last edited by fti, Feb 11, 2008 2:27am
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  #1410  
Old Feb 11, 2008 2:36am
fti
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Hi ALL,
the attack.

regards
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  #1411  
Old Feb 11, 2008 2:50am
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The Heros March. (Once Upon a time.)

regards
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Last edited by fti, Feb 11, 2008 3:00am
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  #1412  
Old Feb 11, 2008 3:16am
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The Sacrificial Warrior.
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  #1413  
Old Feb 11, 2008 4:21am
fti
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Greed, Mercy and YOU.

Try to decipher it.

I am not up to mark to explain.
Please get some experts to help on this.

Heed this advice, if you understand.
Disregard this at your own peril.

file is in 3 parts.

Good Fortune.
regards

PS: for those that cannot understand, I anm sorry that I am not able to help.
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Last edited by fti, Feb 11, 2008 5:15am
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  #1416  
Old Feb 11, 2008 9:38am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mijamoto View Post
Any English Translations?
Hi Mijamoto,

The poem was explained to me, as it was and still is beyond my full comprehension. The text is very deep in its language and meanings. I can hardly recite it, let alone translating it.
therefore, I feel that it is not correct for me to explain its meanings but to present it , for one who is versed in it to do so.

I therefore would be happy to pass on this task, and hold to the comprehension ,that I personally was taught. It gives me peace of mind in the holding to its morals during triumphant moments.

Thanks for asking.

regards
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  #1417  
Old Feb 11, 2008 9:44am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amenlo9 View Post
like this song very much
how to be a man like ---> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wong_Fei_Hung
Hi amenlo9,

yes it is a very uplifting tune, for moral uplifts in the fight stances.
"By the General's orders" is for me a moral battle wardrum.

glad you liked it.
regards
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  #1420  
Old Feb 11, 2008 12:29pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Hi all,

Here are my quick view of charts today..
NP
May I ask what is the basis for your analysis?

1. What is the purpose of line marked 1?

2.You had 3 impluse wave runs marked 2, 3, 4
and a fat lady marked 5.
What may I ask was the basis to remain bearish, except that the daily scope is bear?
My take is that the market is trying to reverse on a bear trend and on your hourly you should be seeing a congested volatile gyration of the short chart effects. There is no basis to think bear anymore not unless the last sharp leg down cannot find support.
Dangerous frame of mind for a bear, this is tails of the bear and you should be nimble for wide range turn rather than to be bearish.If I was trding I would give this bear a miss.

I hope you can see my point.

regards
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  #1421  
Old Feb 11, 2008 12:45pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Northpro ... I use my progression for attacks based on what I can afford if the 2nd attack troop (1 lot) gets into trouble.

In the early stage of the battle, there's no telling/guarantees if the entry just after scout will continue to head in the right direction, so I add troops slowly as the dance becomes more confident that the PA is moving in my direction.

If I put in 1, 3 progression, I'll be in big trouble should the PA move against me significantly, cause I can't rescue 4 troops easily with my capitalization. By the time I'm adding 2 more troops (1, 1, 2 progression), my basis would be at a comfy place that I have room to exit (or at least lighten the load, cause I normally always keep Scout in) should I have to.

Anyway, that's why I do it that way.

fti will respond to you, as well, his comments to what you posted, but since there are no rules, I wanted to explain why I do it the way I do.

As I mentioned many times previously ... fti is much more aggressive in how he attacks, thus he even dances differently than me (he might put in his attack levels before me). I wait for clear signs of higher-highs, lower-lows, breaks of the previous bar, breaks of the previous high/low, etc. (the latter two depends on the circumstances of the dance ... sometimes I'll wait for break of a previous high/low instead of the previous bar if I need a more secure confirmation that the PA is moving forward or possibly pulling back).
Leighsww,
the thoughts marked in red is dandgerous thinking, one will never ever be sure in the trade, sureity only adds to rigidity, I hope you will think about what I said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Anyway, attacking like him, one could make a LOT of money, but if one doesn't yet know what they're doing (don't have their dance down pat and/or undercapitalized for the amount of troops they enter, etc.), like fti has said many times ... "it's a double-edge sword and could easily take your head off," as well.
Nevertheless, Leighsww is right that if you are not proficient in the market dance , please be careful with your snowballing of risk. If you are new to this frame of mind, try to do a 3 level 1,1,1 sequense for dance practise for starters. Never mind about the getting the pips, first. You will ultimately come to the conclusion that the risk snowball will be necessary, but first you must be able to syn and dance well first. Otherwise you may just be snowballing to a dark corner. You must be able to dance that the second or third hit ie rescues must be able to bring yourself back into the game's front.If you are able to have consistency in bring the 1,1,1, sequence to close to breakeven , then snowballing will be useful for you, otherwise dancing lessons is necessary for you before you think MM.

regards
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  #1423  
Old Feb 11, 2008 1:44pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Leighs...Just to be clear, I am not disputing your MM methods and respect ones aggressiveness based on their capital and dancing ability..I was just using your example as it has been the only example thus far that we've seen and wanted to point out an alternate approach (albeit more aggressive) to the attack strictly based on attacking with force from the start to hold on to gains as the attack nears an end. Hope you dont think I am attacking your approach . I am not, but just wanted to throw out an different approach for those that are more aggressive.

Regards
NP
Hi Northpro and Leighsww,

You have both not seen my true attack sequense yet, so as a matter of fact , both your planning is very different from my attack sequense.

Let me give you a hypotical scenerio.
lets say (for example only), (in reality I have much more muscle than this)that the fibo expansion is my MM play, ie 1,1,2,3,5,8
Now thats 20 sections.
I send in a scout (wave AB), he plays well and I decide to check him, I send in 1 checker, which is my level 2 (wave CD)
and level 2 plays well,that would mean that wave CD is short and plays above wave AB. If wave EF retraces then i would be forced to invoke rescue 5 and I go into rescue mode.

If EF did not do that then the instance of the attack would be in wave EF, and if the dance dictates that I am in alignment with the daily trend and both the short charts, It would require that I would attack full force 5, 11 before the break away r/s point( normally somewhere in the mid of AF's range, and would be drawing the attack total of 16 in batches as we test into the r/s depending on the volatility whereby the market is taking that r/s out.
Then upon the test, profitaking of the attack sequense would be invoked into the stops-break on the reverse 8,5,3.
In effects I would be profit taking for ammo(foreign capital) to sustain the residue of the 4 that are still in battle. The four would be further lighten if the trend continues to persist. This would continue until what is left is 1. then a new sequence of 1,1,2,3,5,8 would be put on stand by to ride the next retrace wave, and when the retace wave flats out , the whole rescue and attack sequense would be replayed, depending on the magnitute of the retacement. If the retrace was a fat and bouncy one then the rescue MO was most appropriate. If a new attack opportunity sequence was surfaces, then a new attack sequence would be invoked with whatever was left from rescue.

In reality, you would be seeing that the risk of full force used at the most advantages probabilities and timing.
Of course it can happen that the market may move adverse after the strong attack, and thats when, the damagecontol is invoked to rescue as many of the positions still in good standing as possible and re-strategised( regrouped) for exposure rescue.

This attack sequense is not invoked when the market volatility is tight, Only when the legs are strong,(strong = range play 50 pips average) and volatility run of max 7 bars average 3.

I hope this helps.

regards

PS:It is difficult to describe for you what the dance tempo is like before this opportunities avail themselves, after a few of these dances you will have a better feel for it. One of the tell tale signs is when a market behaves non letargic and seems warmed up in its sequence of movements. For lack of a better word, active.

When markets are detected to be not in this mode, then the normal rescue and limited attack strategy is most prudent.

Sometimes, I may miss the initial legs of these runs, due to my negligence.
Under these circumstances, ad hock strategies are used to compensate the retiming.

In essence, please do not think that you are wrong in your approaches, just different. And probabilily due to capitalisation , not optimised.

Last edited by fti, Feb 11, 2008 2:15pm
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  #1433  
Old Feb 12, 2008 12:32am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickD View Post
Hi All,

This is how I (roughly) see the math for Fti's attack sequence:

On entering troops -

Stage Enter: Total in battle:
A 1 scout = 1 unit
C 1x1 = 1 = 2 units in
E 2x2 = 4 = to get 4 units we add 2 for total of 4
attack 4x4 = 16 = in full scale attack now add 16 for total of 20

On taking profits -

Here he uses a simple reverse fib sequence to take profits and reduce exposure to the return leg and set up for the next wave.

last entry of troops was 16 so halve that to start at 8 (or the last entry was 4 plus 4 say) to give the starting fib number.

Does that sound right?
Hi MickD,

If you were encountering a difficult scouts positions the recovery mode takes over. The attack mode is invoked only when all is in + territory.

I removed the example post, as many like you may instead be looking for rigid MM and be lead astray.

The problem is that, the MM is never rigid, the fibo is the base possibility.(ie the mildest attack sequence)
If on 1st wave successfully taken, the next attack becomes aggressive. (Aggression can be invoked by jump sequences on the fibo) On 3rd wave attacks, it becomes subdued. In High volatility, the attack is also subdued, and vice versa. You have to understand that the dance dictates the stance of the attack, hence the change in aggression stance.


I hope you understand.

regards
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  #1434  
Old Feb 12, 2008 12:44am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Hi Fti,

Can you please elaborate more on what you have mentioned. Not sure where the rigidity is. As mentioned by leighsww, the patterns mentioned are her feel of the market movement. I understand that confirmation = less flexibility = rigidity but surely we need some form of feel or confirmation of the market patterns before we enter the market.

Is like the legs that you mentioned - if there are no legs/waves or any form of patterns, will you still enter the market?

I think somehow we will all be affected by this flexibility or rigidity but to what extent as we all need some kind of confirmation before we feel that we can enter the market.

Your comments please. Thx.
Hi Sitoca,
Trading breakouts is a rigid methodology.
Waiting for confirmation of pattern development makes traders mindset rigid.
In the same, trading breakouts on the short charts is no different. Neither is trading breakout on bars.

"As Above so Below."

Rigidity may ease the traders needs for active analysis by defined rules but it impairs the trader to "feel" the development that is unfolding. The market is never ever the same, the waves of movement may look alike , but are never the same. Therefore nimbleness in methodology is paramount for long term success.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
we need some form of feel or confirmation of the market patterns before we enter the market.
The feel of form, you get from monitoring the developments in the market. and not by setting up rules of engagement.This will restrict your ability to "pull the trigger" (in as well as out)when required. When a market begins to ready itself for a trend attack, there is always more than 1 sign, in reality there are many signals being given, and these sets-up the many types of rigid player, cueing them to the event. When most parties are in the same direction, only the egos will be left to bear the pain of the attack. Then the victors sort themselves out by a mode of musical chairs games (sweeps), and weeding out the weak players. The players who are weakest amongst the victors are rigid players. These gets to "take home the head and tails " ( borrowed from David_Green, thanks). The more rigid the MO, the weaker the player. There is no skill.
This is the reason why machines, cannot be made good traders, as there will be one or more magic bullet that will take it out, depending on the rigidty its MO. Similarly , if traders mimic machines, they will ultimately share the same fate.

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 12, 2008 1:39am
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  #1435  
Old Feb 12, 2008 1:25am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amenlo9 View Post
Anyone play Chinese Chess here?I find it useful how we plan,attack and defend.
@ amenlo9,
thanks for bringing up the "xiang" chess board.

@ sitoca
Look at the board, can you identify the most versatile pieces and its strengths and weaknesses.
And can you identify the rigid pieces, and its strengths weaknesses.
Each piece is limited only by its ability.
The piece with the least limitations is the most useful.

refer thread #811

Sun Zi
""Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions."

regards
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  #1437  
Old Feb 12, 2008 2:39am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sitoca View Post
Hi Fti,

Thanks for the reply and the chess pieces analogy. I think i think....I get what you mean.

Correct me if I'm wrong but in essence, we should learn to anticipate the possible market patterns that might be forming and then follow the market development to see if it realise?

In the past, how do you train the junior dealers to feel these market movement?
@ Sitoca,
In reality,pattern analysis can be done in less than 10 seconds. Its not the pattern thats critical, evey body can see that, its the way it behaves while its forming that clues the trader. ie volatility, activity and time splices, range etc. and from these one is to formulate correct response,by trial and error. When in error, rescue, and when correct, to "press".
All trading, MO,Mm strategies is not meant to manage the market, but the trader's mindset and his resources. Leave the market managing to the CB and tier 1 , they have their ways. The trader's task is to manage himself and his resources as best he can. Patterns can come, patterns may fail, it may mutate, but thats not important. What's important is , What the trader does to cope with the changing scenerios. Here his experience and nimbleness backed by sound MM would excel him.

Training of junior dealers is OT.
Basically , since I pay them, I give them my training lessons( as you can see here on this thread), I throw them into the deep end with trade limits and loss limits to abide by and observe their mindset and applitude. When they lose money, I butter them nicely and throw them back into the deep end again. Those that comes for buttering often are put on the out tray, while those that perform well are rewarded. Since I came from the ranks myself, I tend to try to save some who are at the fences. They are then put on a buddy system, with one senior. The less intelligent ones normally are able to perform much faster than the highly groomed, who normally takes a little longer to try to unlearn their old habits and egos, before they catch on.
Why do you ask?

regards
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  #1446  
Old Feb 12, 2008 10:50am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by digerati View Post
I must correct you on this if you have not been corrected already.

It wasn't Leonardo DiCaprio


It wasn't Leonardo Da Vinci


And it wasn't Leonardo from the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles


That created Fibonacci. You can't even spell it right.

It was this guy.

Leonardo of Pisa (c. 1170 – c. 1250), also known as Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci



You do not have your facts in order, and the only fallacy in this article is the article itself.
It will be a cold day in hell before I would scoop so low as to split hairs with people who cannot read properly. Inability to understand the word "fostered" does not display your weakness in language. From your posting ,it display only that ego, is your master.
If a person is unable to distinguish between a mathematician and a scientist then it is their loss.

For me, I studied the priciples of fibonacci not the mathematics alone and my studies were inspired from works by Leonardo Da vinci and later researchers. If your intentions is to display your lack of command for the English language, then be my guess. But do try to read carefully before you jump about, displaying your little knowledge for the nobel prize.

I am sure you are right that Leonardo Pisano created the Fibonacci mathematics. For your education please be informed that Da vincci was a student of your beloved Leonardo Pisano and it was he , who illustrated and fostered the principle.

"In the 1490s he studied mathematics under Luca Pacioli and prepared a series of drawings of regular solids in a skeletal form to be engraved as plates for Pacioli's book Divina Proportione, published in 1509."

Do you know what "The Vitruvian Man" is?
Just for your education,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_da_Vinci
look under "Leonardo as observer, scientist and inventor"

So for you , please enough of your ego, thanks, but no thanks.
And for your starting a thread against me, sure , go ahead.
The last I checked , its still a free world, so please do not be held back.

Wonder why such a learned person has to read my thread?
Have the markets been treating you badly?
The market loves people with ego like yours, so see you in the markets.
Don't be late, and do bring enough money.
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  #1448  
Old Feb 12, 2008 11:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by digerati View Post
Ok luSan, I was merely trying to just reply without being a super asshole, but I cant hold back.

Yes I read about 19 pages and then stopped.

It was hard to get past FTI's orginal post since he is bashing all technical analysis pretty much.

All the technical analysis does work, there a lots that use it with great success. I think its terrible to start a thread bashing it.

Maybe someone should start a thread bashing FTI's methods?
Maybe I will start it?

Good stuff now stfu and move on.

All I wanted to do was correct the guy.

I mean hell, if you are going togo through the trouble of pointing out the flaws in things if they exist, why not get the info correct?

If this kinda response to something so simple turns you off, then go change your tampon and come back.
And further, Mr vulgar mouth. you take your own advice and begone, you have been warned.
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  #1451  
Old Feb 12, 2008 11:26am
fti
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Originally Posted by alexfot View Post
Fti and all! Just ignore the guy, please.
Hi alexfot,
In all fairness, I can accept his comments, although he doesn't read well.
But to use foul language, when it was uncalled for, really degraded himself.

regards
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  #1462  
Old Feb 12, 2008 12:30pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickD View Post
Hi All,

This is how I (roughly) see the math for Fti's attack sequence:

On entering troops -

Stage Enter: Total in battle:
A 1 scout = 1 unit
C 1x1 = 1 = 2 units in
E 2x2 = 4 = to get 4 units we add 2 for total of 4
attack 4x4 = 16 = in full scale attack now add 16 for total of 20

On taking profits -

Here he uses a simple reverse fib sequence to take profits and reduce exposure to the return leg and set up for the next wave.

last entry of troops was 16 so halve that to start at 8 (or the last entry was 4 plus 4 say) to give the starting fib number.

Does that sound right?
Hi All,
sorry guys, OT for a mom there.

@ MickD,
Your reading of the MM is mostly right, for the example I posted.
The 16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign capital" to sustain the actual 4 as ammo to ride a little, but risklessly.
This exercise was a favourable run, but there will be instances where all 20 can be at a loss. That would present a rescue scenerio that requires that the trader will exceed his 10% capital at risk. It can escalate to 30 % very quickly dependent on the volatility. So in essence , a rescue of higher order is required. This is difficult for the undercapitalised or unprepared.

For not so experienced traders, they have to be careful to attempt it this way. It is aggressive, but is how professionals operate. The lesson here for the smaller traders, is that, if they did their sums, most traders are actually in effects overtrading, and the leverage facilities accorded them, actually, helping to accelerate their ruin.

It is no rocket science to model this MO. There is no wrongs or rights. And no one can construct a model for another trader. At the end of the day , the trader have to find his own niche and equilibrium.

This is the reasons for my hesitation to bring all except the concepts on the table. That only those who can understand and build their own models will undertake the risk.

Nevertheless, as requested I repost the example again for examination. BUT remember THIS IS ONLY ONE SCENERIO. It is not the holy grail to trading. Moreover this was done from hindsight , therefore important components of the decision process is absent.

regards
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  #1469  
Old Feb 13, 2008 12:20am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Oh wow, I didn't realize I was still trading really rigid, lol :

Okay, I will practice to be less rigid then . However, can you please post your example sequence again? It was an excellent example and I'm sure many of us would like to study and practice it.

Even when I did the ride alongs with you, I obviously didn't quite get down how your sequence was being conducted, lol, and you were probably showing me a very elementary and conservative one based on my being undercapitalized to be able to trade like you, but the example sequence you posted was really fascinating. It will help us to be better dancers, too.
Hi leighsww,

Sometimes its very difficult for a trader to audit themselves as no one can see themselves from outside the "box". Thats why the banks have layers of people watching each other.

I do understand that you are still using the fractals, so as not to feel too naked. And thats OK, do use it until you can walk with out them. I know of traders who use the Wilder's SAR (stop and reverse) while executing the MM strategies. These are matured traders who are exchange members, so there's no shame in being indicators dependent, only that it will impair your honing of your dance skills.

When you were on the ride alongs. You were learning the basics under fire, so mostly the lead was given.Your training was 3 steps MM. just like for juniors dealers. The purpose was for you to "taste blood" and begin to dance and use good MM. The problem was I didn't know your true risk vectors. As you were trading life, I held to most conservative.

What matter is profits? So long as you are profitable, you're ok.
But all mechanical methodology have weakness so you must know yours.
When you fuse methodology to human intelligence, you are only left with human weakness,ie mindset. And if you can hold to healthy traders mindset, then, you become invincible trader. Failing which, you would need some indicators to direct your trading.

Hope this makes sense.

regards
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  #1470  
Old Feb 13, 2008 12:30am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leighsww View Post
Hi Everyone,

Okay, as I've mentioned, I've been experimenting with rescue missions, and here's what I've found using my new strategy ...

1) I can make good pips with rescues
2) I find rescues easier than attacks
3) I like rescues even better than attacks, lol

fti will whip me on the last one, but oh well : (maybe I was meant to be a Medic rather than Commando, haha)

Anyway, here's what my strategy looks like ...

I used the 48sma on the 15m timeframe for this, because it's the only way I know to make it easy to visualize the "tearing" of the PA (this is the only use for it, I do not use it for crossovers or anything else).

Refer to 15m (first chart below) - You can see the PA "tearing" away from the 48sma. I wait until I sense the right time for entry of my rescue troops.

I went against the longer term trend on this one, since I felt a small retracement on the 1hr looked imminent (see 3rd chart), but I would recommend that it's best to keep Scout going the same way as the longer term trend direction, because it's much safer (I am using the 1hr and 4hr for establishing the longer term trend since I'm daylight trading on the 5m and will not be engaged in a rescue mission for more than a few hours, thus logically (for me) those are more relevant than the Daily, in my opinion).

The reason I feel it's safer ...

If you're originally going in the direction of the longer term trend, then even in rescue mode, you can normally sit tight if the PA decides to keep going against you, because it should at some point correct itself to come back to your Basis (and eventually the 48sma).

I always keep my eyes on where that 48sma is in the case of the PA continuing to move in wrong direction after rescue troops were entered, because as the 48sma starts to get closer to my Basis, then I would need to complete the rescue as soon as it hits a little past the B/E point (meaning, I will not need to make a larger profit on that one, as my primary premise first and foremost, is to always save/rescue my troops).

Okay, that being said ...

I use this method only if Scout is the only one in trouble. I also now use a VERY small scout. Scout is only .1 lot (yes, there's a decimal point in front of the number :, lol. Oh, and I am on a mini account, so .1 lot = $1000, I'm using 100:1 leverage. 1 pip = 9 cents).

Here's why Scout is so small ...


1) I am wanting to make my Basis 1 - 2 pips away from B/E.
2) Even if the PA moves 200 pips away from Scout, I'm only down $18.00. If I have to enter a rescue at 200 pips away, I still would only need a 3 pip move to B/E.

Here's the math with being 200 pips away (which is the worst case scenario, because it hardly ever gets that much away in a single bound - even news releases aren't normally that large before a pullback happens):
.1 lot (scout) @ 152.00 + 7 lots (rescue troops) @ 150.00 = 1065.20 / 7.1 = 150.03 (new re-averaged Basis)
The 5m (2nd chart) shows an example of my rescue mission.

What happens if the PA starts to head back in the intended direction with only Scout in?

Well, I go into attack mode, however, I DO NOT attack in the same way that I conduct the rescues. I still use my more conservative troop entries for that, because I cannot conduct rescues with 7 lots/troops in.

However, because Scout is now so very small (.1 lot), I use 2 lots for level 2 attack (I treat attacks as if Scout were my original 1 lot trooper).

One last thing about rescues ...

I would recommend that we not be too greedy, lol, cuz we can find ourselves losing what we've gained if we don't exit rescues when we should. Even if we exit with only 20 pips per troop (20 x 7 = 140 pips total), that's GREAT profit!

Just my opinion, but ...

Best not to "regret or dwell" about leaving pips on the table (refer to "Monk" lesson), otherwise that will lead to "hoping" and not wisely exiting when one should (refer to "Old Man" lesson).

Just like those lessons taught ... "let it go," don't look back and hang on to "what could have" been, always move forward and take the first rescue opportunity that comes along, cuz there will be MANY, MANY missions ahead where you will bank nice profits!
.
Hi Leighsww,

Seems you developed, style in trading around the mean, as I showed you.
Do remember that this is only one arsenal and not a magic bullet.
You may like to develop your trading around this, remember it should be profitable in ranging ranges, when volatility picks up, be careful. Try to stay with the dominant trend, even in ranges.

regards
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  #1471  
Old Feb 13, 2008 1:03am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
Hi fti

What do you mean by "As above so Below"? You have mentioned it before and I'm not sure I get it.

Also, can you please clarify why you analyse the daily? Does that not introduce rigidity?

Hi zoran,
"As above so Below" basically is a quote which the free masons used.
In reality, it was teaching from Jesus in the bible about the state in heaven and on earth. Read the testaments for details, I think you can find it in the scriptures , where Christ was asked about the kingdom of heaven. Christ was a wise son. If you cannot find it , ask, and I shall help you locate it.( and it shall be opened )
In the trading context, it is simply an expression that what exist in the Long Charts (daily, weekly, monthly) is much replicated in the Short Charts ( 5 min, hourly ).

I though we covered trading MO already.
The daily chart analysis is to set the stage for the strategies to be used , having the daily trend as the backdrop,( safety net , as Northpro put it).
In case, things got very hairy , we would have to depend on, that the "law of motion" doesn't fail us. Of course, if Murphy insist that his Law should prevail, then I guess, we're done, unless, we have enough muscle to overcome murphy by using the might of size.
I cannot see the rigidity in daily analysis. As you may notice by now that the dance is executed on the short charts, so the daily analysis task is done , once it sets up the trade backdrop for the day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran View Post
You mentioned the following in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...en#post1756217

"I don't trade mainly on 5 min, I start there. If reading smooth I stay otherwise I change partners. I analyst daily charts then go in at 5 min and I will dance for as long as she dance well, by the time I dance to daily chart, I leave small boy to dance with her."
Well that post was meant to introduce to you the MO that I use.
I use 5 min charts for the dance, and when the trading goes wrong, I guide the position into hourly time frames to manage , therefore extending the the tenure required to babysit to get the book out of trouble. (BE if you like). This would cue me to prepare for long, long, trade skirmishes.

Whatever the resultant, that I will only leave a position "little boy" thats very small, when not actively managing.

I hope this helps.

regards
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  #1472  
Old Feb 13, 2008 2:00am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by awd0722 View Post
Hi FTI

I have a question but first I want to thank you for sharing your knowledge, skills, and your time to help traders like me. I truly appreciate your efforts.

My question concerns the hourly benchmark. I searched through all my books and the internet and came up blank. Can you suggest a reference or a source where I can find out more about it? Thanks

P.S. - I think MarketEdge is great and TradersDiscipline is awesome. It's really working for me. Today was my best trading day so far this year.

Thanks again - AWD
Hi awd
thanks for your kind words.
The hourly benchmark can be snap shots of the price at different intervals and averaged to give a guide of the hourly equilibrium.
The best method of getting that read , would be to take all time and sales and average it against itself on the hour concerned. But this would be too tedious, and as the benchmark is non critical analysis thereby non fulfilling.
Alternatively , you can use the 12 sma on the 5 min charts as guide. But be mindful that you do not use it as a trigger for trades.

The distance between the benchmak and the current price , give you clues of the rate of the growth (sigma)of volatility. This helps you "feel" if you have actually missed the boat on a run. It also give you a possible alternative for possible market rest points in the run.When markets come to rest at the hourly benchmraks , normally ait stalls for a while, before the trend continues. If the market stalls too long at these benchmark zones then basically , it has lost its steam.
MM strategies can be engineered to capitalise on this, but only as a complimentary to the dance at hand.
If you analyse , Leighsww's posting on her attack strategy using the 48 sma , you would see how she had taken advantsge of this possibilities. Only that if it became a rigid methodology then it sinks back with all other indicators methodology.

regards
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  #1474  
Old Feb 13, 2008 3:12am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northpro View Post
Fti,

Thanks for posting your attack sequence as it could look.

I wanted to know if you ever consider holding off all trades during the the triple rollover period on wednesday NA time, due to the short period of high volatility during those rollover times on high yield pairs. Curious, thanks.

NP
Hi Northpro,
If not mistaken, I think you are talking about the triple witching day.
Well thats a Money market issue, more than a forex issue.
Awareness that the influence of that activity in the background stands well for you as a trader, to be well informed. In all it depends on what your neutral cost of funds base is.
All sorts of minority thingys are happening daily in markets, and unless you are pin on the reuter or the AP feeds,you probably won't be too aware, and these have little significants to your trading. The focus should be on the charts and major fundamental movers for forex traders.

Normally, before these events, what happen is that there is a lull of activities. And if you were dancing the market, you would notice that the markets tappers off, when your positions begins to build without much P&L influence.
Such , must highlight to the trader to square off and be aside watching for possible opportunities. The prudence being, not to try to squeeze blood from stone, in such instances , the blood you see will probably be your own.

For me I used to run the treasury, so I do have money boys, trying to scavenge some basis from these activities and the SATU boys on the options basis pips , but really it has minimal impact on the forex dance.

regards

PS: for example , whats happening now, Fundamentally , the feds have fail , if the equity markets is benchmarked. Nevertheless the dollar is insistant to strength. It can become very confusing if you were to hold rigidly to any. All you can do as trader is to stay with the flow, but to be vigilant to possible fast changes in volatility and directional bias.
If you do a quick analitics on the daily charts, it seem in limbo in noman's land. Therefore aside or small exposures is masterful prudence. patience being your master. however, Have an eagle's eye for possible quick change in tempo.

Last edited by fti, Feb 13, 2008 3:34am
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  #1476  
Old Feb 13, 2008 4:22am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by auxesis View Post
You can control the lion with whip and chair but take your eyes off him for a second and you?ll be lucky if he doesn?t take a pound of flesh with his claws or worse make you his meal.

Preservation of capital is an absolute must in the markets, unless you can print your own. To be really aggressive you need to be trading with a small percentage of what you?ve got stashed in your boot, so if it gets taken by the dealer you have enough to ante and play the game on the next hand.

You hit the market large and she goes against you, you?d better know how your going to handle it, just how far you can go and the point where you have to cut and run or else you'll have the deer in the headlights look right before you get ran over.

The markets have to move to make money, volatility is something to embrace not avoid, but to survive the long run, the mindset needs to be more of a marathon than a 100 meter sprint.

Fwiw,
A
Hi auxesis,

Wow,I agree and your experience and wisdom is showing.

Good hunting.
regards
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  #1477  
Old Feb 13, 2008 4:56am
fti
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Originally Posted by mijamoto View Post
http://equivalentsrdc.cme.com:443/index.html

Here are live quotes of futures on globex. FTI do they play any role for you. I find them interesting to know when is higher bid or ask :S
Otherwise impresive attack :P (just i must make it in real and i will abandon school :P) cheers
Hi mijamoto,

Sorry that this question slipped my attention.

I am sorry that globex has never been my fancy. The reason being that it is a proprietary attempt by reuters to compete in the market place for business, that was started in the 80's . It didn't take off then due to their primary focus to milk brokerage and I don't think that this animal has changed its spots. If anything , its probably run up a huge bill, and will be trying to recope it once they can manage a foothold. It is disgraceful for such a pioneer to have lived so long and not making any significant impact in the industry, when their competition telerate and the knightridder have long closed shop. For me this white elephant, is not market friendly and probably have survived for so long because of the wasted resources of it parent

Sorry but in my mind , unless this global animal can prove its innovations, I have no lost love for it. Like in most things in life, once the first impressions are bad, its hard to change the perceptions.

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 13, 2008 5:10am
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  #1492  
Old Feb 14, 2008 6:16pm
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenseven View Post
FTI and Leigh:
Thank you so much for this thread
I was a little beat late
So it took me already 1 week to read this thread (I'm still on 81 page)
But Your teachings are great helped me
I dance naked chart for 5th day already (it is 5% up of equity)
I have been reading thread...
I will post my interpretations of AOW later.
Keep up your really kind good work
All:
Thank you for your great contributions
Hi zenseven,
Thank you for your kind words.
Read the thread slowly, for good understanding.

Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_bdog View Post
Very well said, loosing sucks, it's better to rescue, it feels much better than losing. Why you think this territory looks like a trap? I feel it does, but can't explain why.
Alex

Alex, pre-FTI days I have been beat up by that pattern....it looks like there is no resistance and once the price falls below 108.00 there is nothing stopping it until around 107.68. I would set an entry order with a stop above say 108.36 and a limit a few pips shy of 107.68 and lose almost every time. Of course every trader/dealer in the world can see the "open space" and it reminds me of this AOW quote:

20. If his place of encampment is easy of access,
he is tendering a bait.It seems an easy target for stop hunting as many people are looking at the same trade setup and getting their risk/reward ratio just right! A news release might push price through that territory, but I think fti's "vulture" attitude is less risky. Also, I trade at fairly quiet hours due to work and family, so I do not expect big price movements. There are no easy pips.......
The market's at stalemate. The Feds are sunked. The bailout plan by bush is stalled. The market is waiting to see if the new us govt will be any different in terms of it capability to arrest the situation, therefore the tight USD ranges. Be aware that this can swing against the USD very rapidly if the pieces do not fall together. The Dow is showing lead signs already. So be very nimble. No view is best, but be aware of current events.

Best strategies is to use USD puts or currency calls as scout. Use the forex spot or outrights for battle once the trend is clear. Do not allow for rescues to snowball now when in tight range. Patience now is truly a virtue. Be prepared, and watchful, I smell a dead rat. The market will show hand soon, may be fast and directional.

regards
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Last edited by fti, Feb 14, 2008 6:30pm
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  #1494  
Old Feb 15, 2008 3:06am
fti
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Hi ALL,
This was brought to my attention.
All Big boys.

How much of this is true?
Are there invisible fingers in the markets?





I wonder.
How much of this is the truth, and propaganda??

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 15, 2008 3:20am
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  #1496  
Old Feb 15, 2008 5:40am
fti
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Hi ALL,
This sounds like war, only the arsenals seems political economics.
Its getting hairy, watch that GBP/EUR tear.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200801...-the-west.html

The question that strikes me is
Is this a branch of freemasonry?
http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO..._Relations.htm
http://www.apfn.org/APFN/illuminati.htm

regards

Last edited by fti, Feb 15, 2008 9:22pm
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  #1500  
Old Feb 15, 2008 8:34am
fti
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acs_112 View Post


Incredible thread, before reading through this if someone had told me to approach trading without a stop loss i would consider them crazy!

However this thread has opened my eyes. I have to thank Fti, leighsww and the others who have contributed to this thread.

Fti reading some of your posts actually sends a shiver down my spine the depth of your knowledge is truly profound, Thank you for your contributions here.

One question i have about this last post, you mention not to allow a rescue to snowball given the tight range. At first thought i would assume that given a tight range the price should never move to far from your base so snowballing a rescue should not be to risky given that there should be opportunities to get out at B/E.

However is the reason that the market may be getting ready for some big movements, and current levels may not be seen for a while being caught on the wrong side could be fatal? Is it then a general rule to be cautious about attempting a rescue in a tight range market?

Again many thanks for your contributions here Fti it truly is an incredibly informative and inspirational thread.
Hi Acs_112,
Sorry for late reply,
Now caught between "The rat" movie, reading about the new world order and watching the temp tear of the GBP/(USD)/EUR activities.

Thanks for the kind words.

About "you mention not to allow a rescue to snowball given the tight range"
The discouragement is not because of the tight range, rather that given the grounds whereby the congestion is occurring, abnormalities are expected in the battlefield. If we were to implement the normal dance. Chances is that we will be snowballing in a tight range, akin to large bet positions ahead of a trend run. If correct the windfall profit would be great , but generally the risk would be great as well. So large exposures now may not be prudent of traders in overexposure and becomes difficult to manage ,when in the wrong direction.
From experience, chances will be swift two way action, and the survivors have to be very swift and decisive. Unintiated traders will stand better to resources conservativeness, which will be necessary for a protracted engagements, when the inevitable happens. The charts are presenting trapping signal both ways and the intermarket relationships are tearing, pointing to a realignment of changing ground , probably on a major scale.Be prepared about the time scale that this will be occuring , probably in tandem with the occurance on the USA developments.

We are entering exceptional times, and exceptional and conservative strategies should stand well.

However for nimble dancers , this provides great opportunities to scalp the congestion. Just be mindful of the major trend and the levels of rescues not be too aggressive.

regards
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