Hi ALL,
the USD bulls seem back, prepare for action.
Remember yoiu are still on your own.
Think , then feel her, and flow like the river.
Green _David, you are a nice man,.
But please surrender your dealing security card at HR,
also please surrender all your credit cards and staff pass,
I hope you shouldfind a good job at the casinos. Much as we have resources, but it is insufficient to support the God of Gamblers.
Hi ALL,
what you had witness is the market vs fundamentals.
There is under current in the USD, it is very strong.
Much as we may find displeasure in the manipulation.
we however must yield to power, we are dealers.
so the USD bulls returns, manage it.
Please do not chase, choose favourable grounds,
manage the risk as your book allows. and after NY lunch, please.
I understand. It is absolutely right from risk point of view.
I am still an un-experienced and sometimes emotional trader.
1. After news anouncement, the price movement will be unpredictable, which will cause me emotional.
2. I keep some positions purposely so that it will force me trade just one direction.
3. And I try to avoid frenquet trading style because I don't scalp due to spread costs, slippage, requotes.
4. And the news also can bring favarable movement to the positions, isn't it?
And the unfavorabel news will not change the main trend, isn't it? It provides excellent oppotunity to attack. This is the same with "crisis" as you have told me --- dangrous opportunity.
Hi David,
I am sorry to say that I cannot understand a word that you have pointed out.
Maybe if there is anyone who would care to explain. Please be my guest.
It is because David wanted to mount a rescue against the impulse i think.
Hi DutchAngel,
You are correct.
Mounting rescues against impulse, is a sin.
It makes a mockery of what I have taught, in totality.
Its a sure way to kill your account.
it;s not whether it will, its just when?
Trading into MAJOR figure releases is another.
I wish there's some rocks for me to hide under now.
may be marked passage of the report is the explanation of this strange moves today. But it may also be just Bullshit ...
Misread on GDP Sends Dollar on Wild Goose Chase Donnerstag, 31. Juli 2008 17:48:00
New York, July 31. It was all about first impressions when it came to today's market reactions to US GDP data. The dollar got slammed initially due to lower-than-forecast Q2 and Q4 07 results, but eventually folks dug more deeply into the report to find that a drawdown in inventories trimmed Q2 GDP by a whopping 1.92%. This is good news because slender inventories means less overhang in the current and following quarters and greater likelihood that GDP will remain positive, also helped along by strong exports and falling imports. The recent drop in oil prices should help with the latter as well. Regional PMI data has on balance been better than expected today, but USD/CHF traders are only willing to take price so far before tomorrow's US employment and ISM releases. Last at 1.0493, offers are seen at 1.0520 and 1.0540. Major buyers noted today at 1.0405 but we'd need some bad news to get back there before tomorrow's releases. Swiss CPI was near forecast o/n and the SNB is a coin-toss to either raise rates or hold steady in September. Randolph.Donney@ThomsonReuters.com /pcw
Hi MaMood,
For a long time, all these tricks, and ploys had been used to trap dealers.
This is the reason, that many market makers tends not to want to quote during the first 15 minutes of fig releases, and for bona fide customers , wide prices.
The people who are accountable for theses fig tabulations, in actuals have vested interest. I for one do not pay much attention to them, nor their guestimates, or the people who have intelligent view and opinions of them.
They are all speakers fromposition and interest. TOO much manipulation is the key word.
For every 100 reason , that may be given for it, you can find 100 reasons against it, the market determines the victor.
I trust only the market and her trends. In times like this , she's so confused , and she know not what she does. I'll trade , once the euforia is gone and she settles down. I don't like stray bullet chances, its not business just gambling. Normally not trading until half an hour of the releases , or when she has etermined trend, would stand good for the gamble to be defused.
But of course if one had to have a position, then keeping it very tiny, may ride thru the storm.
Now that the bulls and bears had clashed, it time for the vultures to come a picking on the cracases of the dead bull , bears and mostly the pigs all over the grounds.
Not much will ensue now only mild calm.
For the picks of spoils of war.
In reality the markets didn't moved anywhere, but there are surely many dead greedy gamblers and some richer greedy gamblers, for this is not the day that they should fall. Until another battle, his fate will be put to the test again.
Hi
I had seen lots of these in my career span. Nothing new, Now every body talk BS.
For you, if you don't tame your ways, you WILL be listed in the casualty list one day.
regards
watch it now, paul is casting his spell again.
Move the dead and wounded out to the appropraite support areas.
Those who still can walk and fire a weapon, go to counter marked BANK and replenish you weapons, we may have another battle at hand. Those fearless , you go to frontline. those prudent, go 2nd or 3 rd wave attack depending on which company you belong to.
Battlestations !
OK. FTI, please see the chart. Maybe it is a reference for all the friends.
Did I trade against the impulse? Would you give me my job back then?
If my positions exposed into news, as long as the size is so small that even 100 pips didn't hurt my book, that is OK. Maybe I am wrong, I will think about this again.
Oanda platform, the spreads during news will expand to 20~40 pips, my platform is OK, but I will get requotes, you get the fill with bad price a lot of times.
Tell you a secret, I didn;t make any money during figs time yesterday.
I just bot EurUSD in the market during Asia Lunch,
I bot large , very very large to take profit.
Can you see the impact.And you think you need big wild movements to make money. Well you are wrong,killing half paralysted warriors is more fun and sure thing.It took me more than 8 hours to do it. Do you think you got bigger ones than me?
Yeah , be a hero trade the figs, shows you got balls huh.
Better to have barins , my friend.
Finally, Now the fat lady sings.
cu later, gotta sleep.
I have read this thread from when it first came to life..and again! just incase you thought i was just passing through!!
I am teaching my son the guitar..when he first started to learn he would do whatever i said.. no question. now he has more skills he questions me. i say try it....he then comes back and either says yes THAT works or doesnt... Sometimes it works for him not for me .....Varying styles!! But we both agree on the basics..these do not change `building blocks`. I think wot i mean is as he becomes more proficient at his chosen discipline he finds the need to question the whys? to find out why!
I know what its like teaching `hands on` and to be able to see the results of the teachin. When he first played ` live ` with my little crowd, just basic blues ad lib type .. if he got into difficulty I could `take over` with my guitar and there was no probs.. he appreciated that! now if I try to move in I get a look that says..I can do it .. which is fine ..I know how far he can go. with playin live ad lib he has to `feel` the other musicians and how the tune is going. Is this relevant? maybe ..
I wouldnt like to teach guitar over internet !! you just cant get the feel of how the student is progressing.. not that i have tried!.
Sorry for the long winded post at this time of day! just trying to put forward my thoughts on the limits of internet teaching, and how difficult never mind frustrating it must be.
Many thanks again to FTI for re-opening my eyes to this game.
David
Quote:
Originally Posted by onedrop
Good analogy! I see trading a lot like playing music. Need to learn to recognize the rhythms and riffs and know which players are grooving hard and which ones are sitting out. If your technique is sloppy or you can't play in time, you'll get booed off the stage.
And you can't learn to swing by downloading TAB off the internet.
I just got caught up on the 30 pages I missed in the couple of days and noticed some concern over the use of this thread so I thought I would re-hash a few lessons I think are important.
1)
Rule #1 preservation of cap.
Rule #2 preservation of cap.
Rule #3 don't forget rule #1
2)This is not new. It was old when the Phoenicians were trading with the Romans and the Greek Philosophers cornered the olive oil market. This is the concept.
The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geometrically with losses
% Loss initial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900
The % gain required to come back to balance (break even) will increase geometrically with your losses.
If you lose, 20% of your capital, you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.
So please be careful with you?re trading
3)
Do not be confused that the attack sequence and the rescue sequence both take on the geometric basis. The purpose of rescue MO is to recover the scout, when encumbered; therefore the minimum response is at least a fib progression sequence.
The attack sequence is for press therefore should at least be a reverse fib, to protect from possible retracement against position.
4)
If 1 scout was in trouble, u sent in 1 to rescue then 3 to rescue if unsuccessful, if more rescue were required then the next squad would be?
Ten, did you get it right?
Based on this progression what would be the next required rescue?
Thirty, did you get this right?
What?s next, ninety.... see now.
Lets say you use a 1,2,3
then required rescue is 18, 50, 150,
I best not show you level 3....
if you evaluate your rescue risk snowball....
now do a rough guesstimate for every pip run against you, it will cost your book?
5)
Losing money is no big deal in trading. Losing the ability to financial trade again is the pits of it. But truly losing moral, that ones incurable.
6)
I am the general, commander of my forces. As general, I am responsible for understanding where the market has been (trend lines), it?s strength (bull, bear or sideways) and on what ground it is in at any point in time (Asia, London, New York).
The general starts all the engagements with the enemy, EURO/USD or GBP/USD, the time and place is based on his interpretation of the information that he has gathered before hand. The preparations for this engagement include gauging the strength of the opponent?s moves, volatility, and direction of movements: long and short term trends.
He also chooses a strategy (buy or sell, long or short term) and asset commitments.
All this he ponders in his temple. When the plans are made, he waits for the enemy to provide an opening and the starts the battle.
Once a battle has started, the general will modify his plans to account for movements of the enemy (price action, changes of ground).
The general will not display his retreat points (stop loss points) nor will he announce his points of victory (limits). These will only help the enemy to defeat him.
Management of resources will always be part of the battle (money management).
The general will practice responding to enemy movements, honing his skills both in battle and in the practice field.
This general is a guerrilla fighter. He does not have the resources to go head to head with the enemy. The fight is always on the flanks and is not able to see the full strength of the enemy, but can feel the effects of the enemy?s movements instantly and must be able adjust his adjust his attack using discipline and methods learned in battle and instruction
There is so much more but these were a few things that caught my eye during my review.
Hi musgrove,
All essential pieces of the skills puzzle.
Think deep.
Hi Fti!
I've some questions about Forex that I couldn't find the answers yet!! If you help me on them I'd be very happy and thankful!!
1- Are the markets we'r trading in are really free!! Or there're some certain almighty forces has a huge effect in them!!(cb's,tier1s,tier2e.g)
They are as free as everything in life. All markets have owner, aka majority shareholders, they protect their interest that the is no riots in their vested interest. Freedom has its limits
2-What 's the REAL amount of the money circulate in this market!! Namely ,how those huge leveraged position effects the price action in reality!!It encompasses all of international trade plus speculation
Assumed I engaged with my enemy and not able to see its full strength,but can feel the effects of it!To me that means it can see me!! but I can not see it!!Of course , it can see you, but you are too insignificant compared to the totality for them to be interested in you.
How I'm gonna fight against that enemy!!?Does fundamental ,technical ,sentimental analysis give us really edges or sometimes sucker us into emotional roller coasters!.Use your God given brain and learned skills to manage youself and your exposures.Are those leveraged positions created base on Credit !!If its so that virtually boosted other parties playing against me can take me down through their highly leveraged position(Eventhough they might not have really big capital!)l Am I thinking right or I'm missing something that I don't know yet!!
3-You said Liquidity and Volume are two different things!Can you explain little bit more on that? Liquidity denotes the ability to find prices to deal when required. Volume basically means what DutchAngel has told you, It is the sum total of all trades done.
Thank you again!
I hope you would think about what I answered carefully.
I am finished for today means that I have added to positions? if you don't know don't invent new meanings, better you learn first.lol.. please come up with better names.. like 'deployed' or something.
from what I have seen fti uses:
scout/attack/rescue standby - ready to enter a new position
scout/attack/rescue deployed - position entered
scout/attack/rescue out/home - position closed
we need some sort of protocol here because for some "out" means new position in the market and "finished" means adding to position, hehe. just trying to keep the radio 'clean'.
Hi All,
My bias is bull USD, but please dance the tempo.
Its getting very tricky, as the market trys to pass on the losses fom yesterday. Today either they fight a bigger figs battle or they may just give up and go to sleep.
One thing for sure, is that there will be no more opportunities to fight this week , whatever happens. If you lose and want revenge , then you may like to sit shivering and praying, with your exposures until next week, when they come to take your heads off a tired and defeated gamblers.
OK Battlestations people !
regards
Just for info I am Sx eurusd X65 before I made the postings.
If you are not nimble, better you be squared before NFP.
sir , when u say 65 , do u mean 65 standard lots ?
Hi maheswara,
I meant price, we are way passed size discussion.
Use your own discretion , I am showing blotter just for info.
and this info mation may be late. You may mark against it,
But you are to swim for your own, now.
regards
If you are squared , best you stay sq fro the figs.
I deployed scout to benchmark timing only.
EURUSD today from begin asian session to now.
Do you dance such slow fox or are you at the sidelines?
If you are dancing in it, do you bring out attacks and rescues in such a small 20 pip ranged market? Or do you just send out your scout?
Hi MaMood,
Sorry was asleep, can't say,
from chart seemed only mm sweeps.
If caught in range. chose a pivot and dance around it, if scalping.
OK squeeze jump zone up, ceiling 1.5600 bottom not in sight.
bias Bull USD.
ready for NFP
remember yeaterday, if fig Bear USD mkt will be slow up moves, can attack impulse. swing tolerance seems about 50 pips only.
If Bull USD will be swift, so watch the levels , don't chase impulse.
If you are forced to trade, wait for !st implulse, count to 10 then hit. When in trade don't think, if price change directions. count to 5 then hit. If you think, you will be too late.
Figs trading is a reflex game, and due to internet slow access, ill advised to try. But you may simulate.
My advise wait for 1 st wave complete with retracement before attempting ,SMALL trade in direction of 1st wave, better strategy.
Should be about 15 to 30 minutes of fig release.
Fti andall, done for the day... have a nice weekend.
I learned a lot...being quiet...it is better for my focus..but I am here watching as an eagle and learning from Fti and all...
Gosh...fti has so many ways of teaching...I cannot trade without bringing some of his stories back to mind...Thanks one more time...
Regards,
This session was outstanding...thanks fti.
Hi Lusan
CU, goodnight.
regards
position recap Sx21x15550
be back in a while.
OMG isn't NY boys going for lunch?
Hi ALL
Afternoon NY session today is gonna be hairy for me as I am in level 2 attack sequense.
So forgive me if I cannot post running positions .
I shall post position recap, when able.
I hope you average is good.
I an winding the positions down during Lunch to 70%.
and will initiate attack sequense level 2 if market drives below 50.
otherwise I will allow bleeding for repositioning and re analysis.
According to chart pattern, market is bull USD still and trying for retest of low.
Although it will like crack it, do not force below that , and try to take profits when that happens into the close half hour , or the try which ever comes first.
The NY morning, had been whippy, expect the volitility to pick up and more gapping action as CME comes in full swing.
And stop listening to all that BS your are being fed about orders.
Not pressing the north, action, content to let ride for the moment.
Question that concerns me, as I'm about to start from the beginning and reread thread. Yesterday we talked about not increasing size going into announcements, but It seems you did just that this morning?
regards,
a
Can you give me reason why you are long euro?
Which direction of the impulse?
What is the daily trend?
What is the hourly trend?
So Who are Supply management institute?
So what is the relavence of their figures?
My left E/U positions is averaged 5538. If I take loss now, it is OK, on general, I still make profits today. If E/U goes up another 50 pips(now it is 5566), I will break even with no profit today.
I am thinking if E/U goes down to 5540, I will leave scout only in the market.
Thanks.
Hi David,
oK your average is 38.
What has taking loss gotta do with your profits.
I don't understand your MO, it is best you do not folow me, as i an goinfg into attack mode of m,arket drops.
The mindset is not in line with the context of this thread or with feeling price action on the initial push, but the feeling I had when price bounced from the 5220 area
From my view, the 5520 area is last close key area for Euro bulls to defend. I thought from reading the thread that the general surveys the battlefield looking for areas to defend/attack, it seemed to me to try scout small position from this area, knowing that the train might make him very thin when it runs over him. Attempting short into the area until it broke didnt feel right.
let the whipping begin.
over all trend up,
daily trend down but imho possible ending of 3rd wave
hourly trend down but possible ending of 3rd wave
Hi auxesis,
I think you are not in line.
Note your comment in bold,
you are predicting with your technical crystal ball.
The market gaped away on a 1st wave push after the NFP.
I pushed for run, it failed and swang up for a search fur a top.
found it and came down for a congestion for a second test , which failed.
all the time I allowed the initial position to bleed , while on 2nd retest mild attcck sequense was initiated, the pattern is a zig zag and we are still on the 1st wave.
If you guys do not lose your crystal balls and indicators , I think you do not qualify to tell me about my technique.
It becomes ROJAK.
The impulse for EURUSD is down and the up take although is strong is ABC retracement. NO technicals would deem market bullish EUR. Show me something?
Some indicator are blinding you.
Just look at the naked chart . We have a three top test at the 80/85 zone. If any read it is a possible 3 tops. only thing is we have no chart confirmation. When you get the confirmation , I am takig profits. you watch.
Actually how can you feel anything with all the prediction in your head?
I always asked for you to feel market not feel your predictions.
Your suport and resistance thingy is goona confuse you, absolutely,
Why do you think I have no positions above 50 except for the failed attack at 67
I think auxesis wanted to capitalize the opportunity of rebound. But if he could hit and run, it is OK. But if E/U shall ever go up to 1600~5620, maybe next week, but not today. No driving reason to move E/U up, am I right.
And I do see a bearish 1h pattern on E/U.
what I am worried is the market will loss volitility due to weekend. What do you say?
Hi David,
I don't know, I have no crystal ball.
I an incline to follow whatever they throw at me.
To be frank, I don't know,
No one knows.
It is difficult enough following the flow,
and you wanna speculate on the volitility?
If it becomes volitile then I have to skew in to protect verexposure.
If the volitility is low then I have to be more aggressive to better the average for a fight.
Why does everyone like to guess, and predict.
Try to follow the flow, when you get a levels feel , guess when you go into it, the strategise..
Aiya this getting very hard, you people cannot get rid of old bad habits.
regards
So hard,
FOLLOW flow not LEAD flow.
don't be smart alec, follow and strategies to get niche , either in price ave or position size.
And come back and talk to me after you get rid of the indicators on your chart, You think I am blind?
Hi, fti:
I don't predict, and I never believe prediction. My scout is a guess, that's all.
Because today is Weekend. And we can't trade tommorow. That's why I am worried that the price may free at this level. For my oanda platform it is OK, the spread is 1pip. But the other one is 3 pips.
Attack deployed already. Now averaged @45.
BTW, I could have a floating quote.
Why are you attacking , when she is looking for support.
it's still lunchtime. OMG.
Do I have to type in mandarin.
and or volitility increases/
BELOW 50 IF it comes.
if that is so then i'll have to just continue doing it till i get it...
point is i do get caught in bad swings. I dont have a deep book like fti so i do take losses from time to time, but as long as i am trading the right direction im never worried abt my positions. if she decides to turn, then too bad i'll have to wind down to protect my book. Nad they are times when i am agreesively attacking and collecting plenty of foreign capital when price ssuddenly turns, no choice, book protection comes first, so i'll have to aggresively scale down.
The MO teaches to follow the trend, but more importantly, its how you protect your book and this is why i found out that using a skew worksheet degrading, it does not allow you to be flexible with the price movement, the maths should more or less be in ur head reacting and strategising as prices flow.
and i dont guess, i just pull the trade, if it fails, measure 1: rescue, measure 2: protect. When all else fails, run. fight another day on more favorable conditions
Hi Jest,
Thank God , there are people who can understand.
The more you practise , the less mistakes, and the more polished you become.
Hello
I don't really see what the problem is here. Fti has laid out a very simple technique that is easily applied and followed.
1) MM (look it up) if you are under capitalized move the decimal point over a notch or two(lot size) so you can perform rescues appropriatly.
2)get rid of all your indicators and watch price action. Look for compound chart formations.You won't see the moves your suppose to make right away but after a year or so you will get the idea.(people are to impatient)
3)trade the five minute chart and scale out as needed for rescue and the search for the over all trend
4)don't trade news releases. Be aware of them but don't trade them.
5)stick with the trend (and you hopefully won't have to change busses)
6) don't confuse fib s/r levels with your spiraling in and out sizes.
7)for new traders stick to 1,1,1, attack and 1,5 rescue
8)don't show the enemy you stop loss levels or take profit
9)get in and out of your trades quickly 7 bars max average three
10)set up the proper mind set to do the job.
I'm am not a supper trader or even a good trader. But I have read the thread multiple times and am seriously interested in implementing this technique of trading. I do see Fti frustration with people and their reluctance to stick to the thought process of the AOW and continuosly watering down the thread with basterdized ideas or rogue trading. I do appretiate people posting positions and thoughts but lets try to stick to the true concept.
Fti doesn't look to make a thread of clones but does look to build a stable fondation on which to build on.
If I'm of base I'm here to scold but please all lets get back to the basics.
Hi musgrove,
Another one.
Oh I give thanks.
Thank You, At least My weekend will be EASY.
And for those of you that cannot see the light.
Your not gonna have nice weekend.
Read this thread , all 300 pages of it.
That's your homework
Regarding the S/R comment: if this were true, then the 5585 area does not exist and should not go into the decision making process. There is no triple top...but there is and it does.There IS NO triple Top , look closely. These observations give us confidence in our trades once we are in them, as they did for fti today.
What gave you the idea that I was trading tops, I danced into the zone.?? I know he is flat on his trades now, but if this were not Friday, he might still be in them as long as the market were operating properly.
More assumptions, I don't even know if I would , so please do not assume
Once again, I agree with the basic premise of this thread regarding TA. However, some TA plays a role in trading and I think fti will agree with this. In fact, I detect some frustration in his comments to some traders because they do not perform, or remember, or seem concerned about some basic stuff like what the trend is, or which direction the pulse is moving in, etc. I my mind, knowing the trend is TA, knowing the price action is TA, and knowing how the market has reacted to certain price levels is TA.
This you got it right.Did I ever say that TA doesn't work, For heavens sake I am TECHNICAL ANALYST and had ever conducted TECHNICAL ANALYSIS lessons at high levels. Look Airplanes can fly, but I can say safely , few here can fly them.
I what to say here that if I did not care about the people on this thread I would not be participating. Something wierd happens when you spend weeks reading the posts of people on Internet sites like this...I guess we become a virtual community of sorts. So when I see my virtual friends entering a trade at a price level that, at least statistically, will reverse on them, then I get concerned.
Of course you care, otherwise why take alot of heat for your views. BUT the heat is meant to help you mold. I detect that you have much gone on the wrongside.You seem commercially trained and I can feel it in your postings. Do an honest soul search, for your own development. No doubt , you are experienced, only I feel , on the wrong mould.
I am rambling...
You're welcome to learn, but you have to open your minds,there is much misinformation hiding in you. I detected.
I have been trading all week with not much sleep each night. I will leave you for today with one thing to consider regarding the dollar, at least for the next few weeks. Unlike Europe, New York traders do not take most of the month of August off for holiday. Instead, they will take Fridays and sometime Mondays off to spent an extended weekend in The Hamptons. So, if you are planning to trade on Fridays, you might anticipate a lack of follow through in the NY market action. The big boys are at the beach on Friday when you are trading and waiting.
Hi,
I know, I trained , afew of them.
Amongst all the dealers in the world , NY dealers are most laid back.
If not for the CME and order books, there probably wouldn't be a forex market after Ny lunch.
I was depending on order book to lead, CME and TOKYO. Tokyo's on 24 hours dealing. Who do you think quotes at twinlight zone before wellington?
My platform Fxsol says it will close 4:30 PM(NY time).
I think I made a bad following. Now it is 46. But anyay, I made 40% this month(July). Should be satisfied.
I am smoking Red Marlbolo.
Hi,
You wanna trade into twinlight zone, withour CME orderbooks, on Fridays.
Pray that you come out with your shrit.
They may squeeze the Red Marlboro out of you.
Do you need something stronger?
Sharks, my bad . I should let you GAIN some experience.
Hi All,
I have had yet another confusing day reading this thread.
As I recall, FTI says;
1. ignore S/R - so why the post about not attacking until below 50 ?
If I told you the reason, you would have to find a rock to hide under for you reading and comprehension.
2. Dont use Elliot - so why are people counting the numbers of waves and deciding if they are Impulse waves or not?
You didn;t read about my comments about E waves , did you, be honest.
3. Don't go against the trend - but there are so many trends. When I determine the trend for a timeframe in the most basic way - is it up or down from left hand side of chart. Then for me the E/U daily is Up , the 1Hr is down and on the 5 min it has been completely flat for most of the day - it has just turned down about 1 hour ago. So we take our pick - long , short or stay out.You have little understanding about trends. Tell me what is the basic defination of a trend?
Ian
Another one , back to your homework. It was all given, and I don't want to do it all over again.
Hi Zoran,
Sure, And I would spend another 5 million on the programmers, again.
Thanks but NO.
I refuse to be a tech pioneer, aka sucker.
You wanna buy my apple 2e for S$30,000.
It has enhanced 64K memory with integer card, plus enhance graphics adapter and a BMC monitor, top of range. not forgetting 2 floppy disk drives.
If you would please study about analog and digital. Digital is inferior by leaps. i GUESS i WILL STAY WITH nanonano TECH, INSTEAD.
David, it sounds logical but what will it do to your life expectancy? Somehow I don't think nature intended us to sit in front of a screen all day smoking.
fti, I was close to buying an original Apple II the other day on ebay. It sold for ?78 with 128k RAM. No screen though but it's the first time I've seen one.
Someone just needs to design the "feel" algorithm on a trinary computer and I think we're half way there. We can download the rest from your brain. I think we need to be a little creative otherwise you are right, programmers will suck you dry.
Nah, that cannot be original. the original comes with 32K on the board, mine is enhanced with a 32K card. Thats probably PINEAPPLE.
If you clicked on the link, you would see memory was added - but 128k sounds like a lot in those days. My first computer was bought around the same time and had 16k (which we later upgraded to 32k).
Hi Zoran,
Its the Apple 2. he say 2 boxes of memory.
but didn't say how much on board.
If you added a mem module card you can run 64K.
I doubt that it should run128K. Probably have lots of spare mem chips, thats all, that adds up to 128K.
I wanted to ask you about delta hedge technique for some time now. Is it related to options in any way?
Thanks
Hi ksl,
delta is a "greek" component in any pricing model that calculates fair value.
Option pricing models are of the same class.
delta hedges can be used as a position hedge models for all kinds of derivative trade and synthetic instruments, options is one of them.
In the options markets.The delta hedged technique known as delta neutral hedging is used by professional option writers to defray price risk, and capitalising on volitility money and time decay of premiums which is their component of income.
delta hedging is predominantly used by treasury managers to measure net exposure of all the banks treasury activities, inclusive of capital markets,money market , forex , derivatives and synthetics.
I belive you had mentioned this while explaining damage control -the right protocol was to get out with minimum damage or comitt in to the position as a rescue process use reaveraging for position retrival.
Also when I do not understand a termenolgy or want to know more I try google and terms like sigma, vega all point towards options pricing ...
Which are little complicated for me.
Thanks
Hi ksl.
This is the metdoloy of treasury managers in risk management , in that he could offset risk in any # of dealers books against his book by the use of the delta.
You see in a bank, there are all sorts of dealers managing all sorts of instruments , like the deposits dealers , forex dealers , capital market dealers,
options OTC dealers, etc............................So hecannot be looking at all the dealers exposures to know , lets say what the banks exposure was in USD against his natural currency, All the TM need is to generate net USD deltas for all USD activities and he woulds know his net exposure, in this case the USD. if the delta read he was exposed, he could initiate trade positions to neutralise the exposure.
However as the component of delta is dynamic . So as the price of , in this case USD/??? changes then his delta shifts as well. In effects , it has to be dynamically managed as well, requiring the TM to have an opinion to the exposure.
This has no important significance for speculative traders. It is a management tool to curb risk, whereas traders creates risk exposures. Unless you traded multiple instruments of same risk denomination.
deltas , sigma, vega teta... etc these are the "greek" components in management & pricing models that calculates the respective risk elements. These can be plotted and identified graphically.
Hi All,
I have had yet another confusing day reading this thread.
As I recall, FTI says;
1. ignore S/R - so why the post about not attacking until below 50 ?
The reason for not attacking above the 50 mark , was because 50 was round about where my cost of exposure was. On the same virtue, when the market was trading to above that it meant that I was in aloss situation , Therefore at prices above 50 I was supposed to be in a rescue mode. But in effects I had gone into 4 mild attack test and a rescue at 50 . So that was threshhold point Although I could had mounted a rescue mission near 80 which was the expected test zone. I couldnt due to the speed whyby the momentum was lost at that zone. Moreover if you had been followed closely, I had a test scout before the figs, and ihe was taken out at near 80 due to that I needed to be squared for the NFP, which is an important fig release, couple with 2 other figs, released simu;tenously. After the figures release, the market gape down and pushed southwards although ther was strong push it lost its momentum too quickly. As she tested higher there was 4 mild checks by myelf andI deployed rescue at 50, that rescue failed to contain the upsurge which proved strong. As it rallied, the next likely resisitence was the previou point where the initial scout was killed,before the figures. This point was around 80. Remember that The extreme ceiling that had been determined by the scout was 80 and thenearest prime point (the 50, 00 points ) was 15600. If the market had the momentum to take out the 15600 which also neglates the gap price after the figs ,which was about 58 . then the uptrust would be too strong for the market to contain. If you would refer to the previous days actions, that was the case . Howevr I noticed that as we tested for downside strength , it lost momentum swiftly. This could be due to if themarket was not confident to breach all percieved support levels by most tech Analyst, who would be looking for the last nearest bottom at 20
Whats most important was my failed mild attacks and one rescue at 50, never came in the money even on a couple of trys,. This signaled that market was not prepared to breach the 50 now, it could be that more buildup of stop was not detacted by mmakers, who would mostly probably seek for the breach downwards, later nearer the lunch hours as USD bears became less confident of holding the market after a gaping figure release.
As a prudent move to protect book, I then felt that it wouldbe more productive for a forcefull skew attack after the breach of the 50 level, and that I would alloew the market more time to gather the momentum and volume to test the end of the 2st wave. From hindsight the breach was not to be . But if it had breached by after ny lunch , I would have had a forceful skew attck for the breaching of the 20 support that the whole world was watching for. Generally if USD bears had stops it would normally be about a 10 pip zone under the 20 support, which they worshiped. And that would give my strong attack lots of room to ride.
These decision was made from the sequence of the "dance" and not from any predetermined S/R levels as from charts , but actually danced into these zones to gather the feel of the momentum sentiment.
2. Dont use Elliot - so why are people counting the numbers of waves and deciding if they are Impulse waves or not?
I really wonder if you had actually read my opinions about the Elliott wave studies,. If you had you would relise that I think the Elliott studies is adulterated, except for his foundational wave and impulse behaviour of wave. Ask people on this thread what I think about the Elliot waves.
As a matter of fact , I do nor count waves, the counts are due to physical ID of impulse and the counts are for guidance of whether the skew should be inro-or Extro.
3. Don't go against the trend - but there are so many trends. When I determine the trend for a timeframe in the most basic way - is it up or down from left hand side of chart. Then for me the E/U daily is Up , the 1Hr is down and on the 5 min it has been completely flat for most of the day - it has just turned down about 1 hour ago. So we take our pick - long , short or stay out.
Like I mentioned earlier you have a little understanding of market trends, When a daily trend is in effects, if the short chart trends differ, then the short chart is infoming you of the retracement posibility. You seem to confuse yourself between trend, because you think in time frames, I think I had mention many times , that time is of no consequense, it is divided to assist you to not run out of graph space and to compree for bird's eye view analysis.
So , I would just like to say that ,truthfully you are from the commercial(books) schools of technical Analysis, and thats the reason for your confusion. You cannot understand what I do, as you already think you know that which you had been misled in. Unless you can unlearn the mis info in your mind , you will never truely grasp that I had presented. Not so unlike many "trained" minds.
Ian
Hi Ian,
When I was saying my daily prayers.
When I reached the part asking for God's forgiveness , as I forgive my traspassers, Some how I guess God may be angry with me.
In someways , he reminded me that I had snaped at you. And had been unfair to you as you had tried to make sense of my presentation.
So I would like to apologies that I was harsh, because I was disppointed with the market ,and it affected me that I was not patience with you.
Let me try to help you understand.
Please Refer above for general directions.
If you like you may like to start a thread , about your analysis skillsand I can burst every one of your misconceptions. The most dangerous of which is PREDICTIVE ASSUMPTIONS. In your question #1 you had assumed that I was using the "most frequent patterns analysis" taught by "book" schools.
...Now the person with "L" (or learner) plates is going to take some time to get to the same level. I remember when I was there and all of the uncertainties that used to go through my mind but after spending many years at the wheel, it does eventually become second nature.
I went to the race track the other day and found it difficult but I remember someone taking over like lightning. All I saw was the number plate - which ready "fti 007".
The simple question is, are you up to it?
Hi Zoran althought you don?t refer my name i assume that the question is for me so only i have a few words for you YES I AM. But don?t assume either that i am a learner in the true sence of the word, yes learning this new way of seeing the markets, completely! But fighting with the markets 2,5 years from now, if you wish i can send you a file with all types of books related to TA (Steve Nison, John Hill, John Murphy, John F. Carter, you name it...) and i have already like many of you my hard lesson with the markets, lost about 40% of my initial accountt in first 2 weeks of trading live after reading my first book, Portuguese one ( crap) then i realized the markets were not so easy like i was thinking ( i will be rich next year )so i reset my brain and asked the same question to me (are you up to it?), so i said to myself you will not surrender you will take a break from live trading you will learn at least where you failed, so i started to buy a few more books and ebooks went to fxbootcamp, google... and a few months later was able to find most of my mistakes (lack of patience, trading scary money, hope, greed, fear, not having any kind of plann to attack the enemy and so on.). Nontheless i don?t achieved consistency yet, yes i make some good trades but then there comes one that blows everything, so i keep learning what i can, that?s why i step here and don?t think i am looking for the holy graill what i look for is consistency and i thrust in FTI and all of you to help with that task...Besides also realised already that it will take long long time to master this business as i am a very vrey slow learner. Anyway that being said if i feel rude in my answer dont take to that way it?s because my English is very poor, didn?t find others words, in fact i am very happy that you found you way, cheers...
Hi Thenew,
I think you have misundersyood Zoran .
What he is trying to describe is my MO and mindset transposed to a traffic scenerio. The internalisation on the mindset and the observation of the situation thats affecting, the "drive". If you understand the only common patterns, you must also understand howthey come about. They don't just happen to be. They are formed barby bar over time. Recognition of patterns is important , only that knowing how one forms from one to another is more important. The convetinal heckline and other strategic reads of patterns do injustice to it s understanding.
What he is saying is that some people trade looking at the far horizon instead of the situation at hand and lose perspective of the managing.
Hope I articulated clearly.
Like you said , English is not mother tongue for you, so you may not articulate clearly. Similarly , you may not have understood what he had said.
Try to understand what he said, There is truely a lesson there.
Forget about his jest about james bond,it is his way of jesting.
Dear jeffooi@pc.jaring.my,
Thank you for you flattary,
I do not know where you get your information from, it is wrong.
Let me make this very clear to you.
1. I am SingaporeanPR.
2. The answer is no. I am not "Top Cat" neither was I ever on his team. In reference to the link you gave. http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs...2007/index.htm
Please have the decency to recognise that I cannot be "Top Cat" as I am of chinese decent. (if you had been reading this thread carefully)
In all fairness I tamed this cat. And my surname is neither Soh or Ling.
3. To your question, the answer is yes I was engaged with your government in the financial sector. My engagement was in assist your MOF thru their commercial bank by contract between 1995 to 1998. I was on special projects troubleshooting and I am not obliged to explain my capacity to you. If you would be so kind to be informed that I was never engaged with your bank negara malaysia. Although I am aware of forex problems that occured from 1992 to 1994.Please be so kind to realise the timeline differential. I have no information of the event other than what was reported in the media.
4. If you wish to lurk on my thread to learn trading skills, by all means. I give the knowledge freely,for whosoever that can benefit from it. However I do not appreciate your mail and therefore do not wish to communicate with you directly. Any thing you want to say to me in future , please say it here.
5. As I have mentioned in the thread, I do not wish to disclose my name and that is final.
Sorry jest, I do not read 1H candles...1H shows all consolidations and news impacts...difficult to read...Still 1H does look like a E+A double top...I marked the 1D where I would say that we have a bullish dollar...a bearish engulfing...
Edit: I just got back from a nice walk with my wife...thoughts...if 1D is not clear, then the 1H might be very usefull...b/c I think that early trend actions start ALWAYS from the short frame to the long frame..-see post #1420-....still we have to choose either (1) stay out and wait for the 1D trend or (2) take the 1H trend we the awareness that things could go either way...you know, bears and bulls fighting things out...
Hi Lusan,
First things first.
I'll get to the fiasco later,
for now battlestations.
I don't know what you people are seeing on the charts.
Heres my take ,
Market is in USD bull mode.
The daily indicates possible retracements,
Zone A will be test area zone B is the ceiling.
Depending on how the short charts will dance, that is the plan.
Zone C indicates full reversal,
otherwise is short chart impulses downwards then there should be free fall.
Now checking calander of events for today.
No impact figs, just watch factory orders for some efffect.
Was just wondering ,
is there any possibility of keeping people from lurking in the thread/
If they do not introduce themselves , then they hide like ghost in here.
I feel that, thats a bit rude.
Too much possibilities of "shadowless knifes."
Is there possibilities of banning people from this thread as well?
regards
Bx 3 x 70
Not that I am against people wanting to learn quietly,
but I am receiving too much rubbish off thread.
I am considering disallowing my email access.
But that would lock out people who have genuine, personal questions.
more negative lurkers posting....i think they should be totally ignored in future... this thread is full of kind, intelligent generous people who know that their trading has improved under the guidance of fti.
luSan .... please do not be upset... you have worked hard and given so much and should feel very proud of yourself
fti.... i have started reading paper money... i read several reviews about it being boring.. cannot understand why, i am finding it very entertaining as well as educational...have you read his other books?
joy
Hi joypips,
No, it take a lot of references, before I touch reading materials.
Unless things comes highly recommended from buddy sources, I don't indulge. This is due to limited time and attention span. Or if materials comes from research references and investigations. I guess am not as well read as I would like to be.
Moreover , there's too much "junk" floating around, mostly rehash of other ideas, so lots of repetition.
Market has no heartbeat at the moment, I think you're the only one trading,
Not really, there is a couple hundred $$ trading probably,
but liquidity is rather thin.
Anyway scout and positioning in problem, it bleeds
standby rescue L1
range too tight, looking at strategic options, standby.
Upswing test expected,
Do not allow skew to carry too large position into the test.
Otherwise rescue would be difficult. Maintain steady build up.
Both side range still in play (possible)
Strategy to restart skew buildup as initial skew
base 3 , 1.1.2.3.5.8.limit
i think there is no way to stop people from reading. Im not sure if the mods are gonna allow you to do a james16 private forum. They're official partners.
I agree that its getting a bit of an annoyance. Im not sure if they have read the whole thread before deciding to pass comments but thats allright, we'll just have to live with it.
Else you may want to come into contact with the Mods to see if you can create some sort of membership? It'll make u a bit too commercial tho and i dont think thats your cup of Tea.
Nevertheless, the infomation that you have shared in here...its worth more than what people think... or you think for that matter, its priceless and you gave it away for free.
PS : Will i receive an infraction if i tell somebody to fuck off?
Hi jest,
Yeah, that won't be my cup of tea.
I think you would be an infraction to use unbecoming language.
In many ways , Christ taught very clearly,
In such situations, forgive them for they no not what they do.
To emulate them would be degrading to oneself.
If we can get away , to do so swiftly.
But I guess in this case , it would be difficult.
So I guess forgive them and pray for them to realise their err.
Thats about all we can do.
Well we can't expect every person to agree with your MO completely. Maybe some people didn't lose money enough, or haven't stayed in this market long enough to understand every thing. And maybe some people will never understand forever no matter how hard you teach them. And these kind of people will never make a success in this market.
Best reponse to some annoying or non-constructive post is, no reponse. Ignorance to such kind of post is best reply.
Don't be upset for these trouble-makers, several days later and when you banked in pips, you will forget it.
Seems E/U hesitates when approachin 5600. I will wait and see until European session begins.
Hi DAvid,
Yes, My position is building quite a bit without good movement.
Will probably half it into London, lets see.
well, i have a few takeaways. The 10mio killed ur skew. it happened when the price was drifting down, i dont know what u were thinking then but i think just killed a huge winner, i could gather that ur intention was to scale down (take profit) as the move accelates, ur basis was quite high considering the small range, it could have been a winner and u could have closed the book.
Again how important it is for one to admit defeat and take their losses like a gentlemen, we are not invincible in the market, the faster we admit defeat, the lesser the damage is. The battle might have been lost but the war is far from over.
Thats the idea jest,
when something on position goes wrong.
head for safety first.
But of course if I had'n then It would be ok, for this incident.
But if you think like that, one day they will catch you out of sync and they have no mercy.
These guys still at it traying to shake out the USD.
And they are looking for top.
Remember your daily charts, they have quite a big upside range to play.
So it you depend on the daily chart to trade today , you will do nothing, no dance, no try.
then they will get you impatient and the moment you try with a daily outlook you will be traped.
like me I attacked early , although good attempt, 1 mistake and now I am sitting scraching my b.
this is the markets .
Look at your Eur hourly charts, many long legged ladys out to play.
they are very flirtious, and they can dance both ways, so be aware.
I am dang lucky the volitility is low , othewise I would be shitting flour by now.
I'll be considered lucky , if I can get my second attempt out flat.
days like this is the pits,
chairs get warm, tempers over heat from boredom.
But that 's the job, there is no other way,
accept it , or pay the spread.
Every dealer 's whishing for the girls to do something, and all they'll do is tease. You chase, and you're casualty.
There's one real run coming, but not unless , everyone throws up their hands from attempting. Try and see if you have the stamina to out wait them, but don't get too comfy, it can come any time, Only people with crystal balls knows when, but they are normally too late with their stop orders.
This black leggy girl ( hourly Eur chart)is gonna give th bears a headache,
Is she for real??
See the leggy black girl in the 5 mins , guess again.
They come back to my cost , and all I gotta show for it, is, that they snooked me and I just lost the marbles to jump on low volitility.
Look 5 min now leggy white girl come to the dance too.
See the river dividing the log leggeds , that is a ray of relieve, so londg it doesn't do an island crossing , there may be a USD bull run. but don't be expecting no stampede.
Foget about fig effect, I observed that E/U congested in this narrow band for 4 days up to now!
Big sharks are obsorbing more dollars before true move, or is it a congestion for a rebound?
Hi David,
can't say for sure, unless I had seen the order flows.
But absorbing the $ is right , I suspect, look at those engineers engineering the Yen crosses.'
Yen, she has quietly gone into the USD.
if you lookat the usd/yendaily, you see that thisis a good place to buy and buy US then after a good meal, a nudge and the sitting duck will do all the ru work.
Really I see much crosses going on, wish Icould see the paper flow.
Lets see if the figs tonight can provide the impetus, for now I am trying to get out with my head intact.
This is seige. And the fool me , is the stooger.
All because of 1my mistake.
Otherwise with some foreign cap, I could dance.
Now I'm two left footed.
Talk about the mindset, if you loose tempo, this is what happens.
Yes. Maybe the fat lady will sing during US session and tell us the true story. btw, gold has dropped 5 dollars since beginning of European session.
Maybe E/U downbreak 74 is good timing to attack.
don't know my friend. better feel her.
what are you gonna do if she triggers the stops sell and comes back to 82 to flirt.
If you are determined with good game plan then you may give tit a try.
I am too heart broken for now to flirt with her.
Wait lets see if I get my ryhthm back.
Ah ha , three black crows in the making.
wow the girls have come out to play, im seeing legs on the daily, hourly...oh my across a few pairs. Men, watch and dont be seduced by those sexy legs... oh my some are doing splits
Ok, ok jest , don't get carried away,
we got ladies amongst us.\
OMG, look at the daily Eur chart , whole day , we hardly moved.
positon recap
S x 3 x 76
Sorry jest, they just flirting, nothing serious, no dance yet.
As far as the daily charts are concerned, they tried nothing.
Absolutely NOTHING.
I think for people with no positions, spare yourself the torture. come back fresh for figs, OK, LOL
while I babysit a sleep child.
beautiful song, i wish i could understand the lyrics.
knowing fti it contains a message, could someone briefly translate please.
joy
Ji joy,
My cantonese is not as polish as it should be .
but here's the translation.
It about letting go, the pain, the anguish, the necessity of it.
I FLY ALONE.
* 記不起 I can't recall
甚麼驅使我喜歡你 what made me fond of you
看在眼裡 watching you from the corners of my eyes
看你熟睡多麼美 restfully in beauty slumber
圍著這裡 柔和天氣 In preserving the peaceful ambience
我願隨風 無聲遠飛 I am willing to fly silently away in the wind..
仍相擁 Although I am supportive
也不等於我了解你 but I cannot understand you
決定放棄 I decided therefore to release
再去接受自已 to be in terms with myself.
曾做錯了 Although a mistake
仍然不生氣 I am not angered
臉上還有希冀 but steadfastly with hope.*
# 若是我記得你if I remembered of you correctly
亦是無須緊記 you are very independent
習慣一個人 and accustomed to being alone
沒有傷悲 unfearing loneliness
而無論舊時說愛多美nomatter how beautiful the pass was
再過半天你便記不起by half a day, you would have forgotten it
若是我要等你 Perhaps I will waited for you
亦是無須等你 perhaps there is no necessity to wait for you
遺留下這個世界向著前飛 to face the world and and fly
縱愛理不理 縱隔千里 To love you from a thousand miles
誰預知將來 或再一起 再戀上你 that there may be hope that one day in the future I can appreciate you.
thank you so much fti for the translation, I really appreciate and now I can enjoy it again.
you are right about not trading today, I had already made that decision, not wanting to risk any of last weeks hard earned pips on these frivolous markets today.
joy
Hi joy,
Welcome, enjoy.
It so sad , to work so hard , only to lose small money.Now for a quick bite .
Please refresh yourself for figs.
another battle front , will begin soon.
During fig battle, I will not be posting, due to fast markets,
will give some recap when able.
Fti And Ani One Else Can Comment On This Please?
I Am Seing From Last 1h Or 2h A Strong Impulse (dollar Bulls), Can This Be The Well Informed People That Are Already Buyng Dollars Because They The News Will Come Good For Dollars And Then They Will Unload Their Pockets To Us Small Guys Starting A Correction Of The First Wave, This Is Just My 2 Cents....
Had to turn on wind,
1st scout
conservative mode
, felt the push after fig not there
2nd scout straight out of court
rescued failed.
had no choice push thru the 75 like butter.
lucky to get 76 to turn onwind.
funny that fig was good for usd 1.7 expected 0.6
remember the whole day market long usd, kept tripping on each other.
so whole market was long, waiting for the break.
on the mach orders I jumped the gun bot the high.
didn't dare to attack still bull usd,
but had to follow the flow.
Thats why took profits vv quickly.
I think mkt may not have turned on wind, so may still be bear USD strength,
but cannot try too large,
watch 00/10 levels . it will tell us, there.
Goodluck,
regards
notice now 3 kings vvery in line,
so the crosses cannot engineer, should be the push for now,
remember trade although on wind is against trend .
remember the chart I marked earlier, refer again.
Fti And Ani One Else Can Comment On This Please?
I Am Seing From Last 1h Or 2h A Strong Impulse (dollar Bulls), Can This Be The Well Informed People That Are Already Buyng Dollars Because They The News Will Come Good For Dollars And Then They Will Unload Their Pockets To Us Small Guys Starting A Correction Of The First Wave, This Is Just My 2 Cents....
Hi Thenew ,
In fact , I am not sure, todays moves are very wierd, seems lots of crosses in play. There is always inside info, nut the people are careful not to move markets to much , so I don't really know.
Its best not to speculate unless you have info directly.
regards
Sorry that I couldn't answer you earlier, I was market blinded, and had to feel my way. So I needed to focus.
sir , you see during the course of today when yen and gbp were getting weaker against the dollar ,the euro resisted to get weaker (noone sellin euro when usd was gaining strength)...
doesnt this mean the euro is currently at its weakest state (oversold) ...
Hi maheswara,
There seemed much yen crosses at play the few hours before the figs.
Markets was bullish of USD. So most players like us were waiting for the bull run, which never came.
I am at lost of the factors affecting markets now, doesn't seem right, for increase machin orders is bullish USD. Why market turn?
May have been the bull died of over weight, In that most participants were waiting for it and it just couldn't come as no orders to buy the orders as all had loaded USD in hand.
The last up push were probably a lot of loss cutting. We have to wait for the NY afternoon session to see if this is the impulse. Short Chart waise it is, Daily Chart wise this is retracement test zones only.
Please don't think over bought or oversold, markets thatare over bot can stay over bot and vice versa for long periods, This is known as trend.
So never think mkt over anything. I could make any sese of the maket today, survived by forcing my self to flow with it.
Watch 15600/10 levels closely, clues will be at this test zone, when it comes.
After the figs, I am just flowing with pulse. I cannot see anything, only feeling my way.
Closed all profitable G/U positions and L1 E/U attack with 10 pips.
After the news 8:30, another E/U attack, cut loss @5605. Booked-in small loss. Only one scout of E/U still in the market.
I saw something wrong when E/U went up 5576, but no courage to take loss and make a U-turn. Trigger problem again!!!
I think today is not a good opportunity to have strong attack. There would be FOMC announcement tommorrow mid-night.
G/U is weaker than E/U.
Hi David,
The E/U was hard, I was lost myself, just feeling my way ,
turned like I told you cause they just gushed over my 20 lots positions and I turned, as I ouldn't see , just depended on th impulse wave.
It was hard even for me.
most likelyu they are not logged in. Thus they are given access as guest.
Im not sure if we could ask the mods not to allow guest access.
Hi jest,
but there are 9 guest,
so 9 are lurking, but who's the 3 that is members but invisible?
Sorry ALL , but I a not posting again until this is resolved.
Hi! Mr fti,
I just sign-in, I have started reading this thread several days ago and up to page 50, but always come to last page to see current development.
I am new in fx trading, about half a year's experience, I started demo a/c at first, then opened a mini a/c, as you can guess the outcome, I lost 30% of my initial capital in 1 month's time. I stoped trading since then because I know I am not ready yet. FYI, I traded shares (KLSE counter as I'm a Malaysian) & CPO before come to forex. Both were failure also.
I read many books and attened 2 courses and always want to learn how to trade profitably. This is indeed a great thread, you open my mindset about trading, your concepts method break some of my traditional thought about trading, I have a feeling that my trading mindset is at liberty now....
Hope you can understand my simple English, I enjoy reading this thread although I need to refer dictionery quite often.
Regards,
Hi Billionaire,
Welcome,
Help yourself to the info, it is free for the taking.
Today, I did a lot of lousy trades. G/U should have given me more than 100 pips, but I closed the most with 20 pips , and scout half way!
Today, I became a stupid sitting duck stop loss @5605 because chasing the market after 8:30 news.
Size problem again. If my size is reasonable small I won't cut loss @5605, then the price back. Even if I didn't add around 5620, at least I won't book in loss.
Well, the market can be so volitile and un-predictable.
I have some loss (luckily not much) in total.
Are you trading into NY late session?
btw: DJIA bounce 100 points, gold broken 900, now 897.
Hi David,
yes, I'll be trading Ny afternoon , gotta make the pips back,
But very cautious, as I have a skidding feeling.
Only market flow saved my behind today, I am getting rusty.
Sometimes I like to read a thread , and not have the ability to respond....an impulsive reply has gotten me in some hot water in the past....if you prefer for me to always be signed in when I read this thread, I will comply out of respect for you...
Hi seeit,
No, its ok.
I just didn't know how it works, and like I explained to auxesis,
I am alittle spooked.
Hi,
No not yet, but my security details are compromised.
So Ihave to tighten up,
You know, the way politics like to rope people in, esp if they think you've been there,. There are all sorts of syndicates out there looking to dig skeleton out of people's cabinets.. Do anything to get what they need from people, if they suspect that you may have what they want.
Because I was not paying attention to the news...I forgot...so I became a real PIG...reverted got some profit....then reverted again...the bull brought back 50 % of my losses...
Learned 2 lesssons: (1) Patience and (2) no to fall in love with analysis; trade the bloody thing...
you did good...yes, daily said go south, but 5M said "I do not know. I go north for a while"..."I did not listen and I panicked." So here I am humbled one more time...still I will fight.... I think the samurai fought with the belief that today they will die, so they forfitted their life...Not a bad idea... I forfitted my account.
I am dollar bull
Hey Lusan,
That type of thinking can cripple you financially.
Fight wisely.
Didn't you learn anything from my last USD bear episode.
Go with the flow, my friend, except don't be a pig too often.
Once a while , well I guess we are human.
Don't do it for greed though.
Today was difficult, even for me. See how I had to "turn on wind".
One second late, And I would hve been road kill. But see when the ryhtym is there, its smooth as silk.
16:12 EUR/USD: Pavlov's Traders Rule Roost
Thin Markets Boost Vol New York, August 4th. Short staffed interbank FX teams have their work keeping up with the flow as thin liquidity on "the toys" makes it difficult to parcel flow. Traders complain that doing "30 units" in whatever major consists of a stream of ones and twos coming back, as algos provide light liquidity. The drop in oil that caught everyone off guard and squeezed a few shekels out of the P&Ls of the market makers is thought to have been aggravated by those same algos, so Pavlov's traders are in charge as thin summer markets force traders on the defensive.
EUR/USD collapsed from 1.5605 to 1.5566 but has recovered to 1.5570/75. RSI on the hourlies is in neutral, hourly oversold Bollingers 1.5535/45; overbought 1.5605/20 - the 5-day composite M/A is up at 1.5609 and when spot hit its 1.5630 peak it registered double the recommended overbought Bollinger setting, 4.0. Oil still looks weak, and the EUR is therefore still vulnerable, 1.5566 last. Peter.Wadkins@ThomsonReuters.com /rs
Hi Mr. G,
Thanks for the info.
For us , this is no summer holiday.
Do the best we can, not withstanding.
Fight tooth and nails , if we have to.
For me, gone are the days of corporation perks.
But I am blessed with freedom.
Sepuuku?...kiddding me?...Only have scout out...and waiting for the cows to come home...
the flow?...Confusing news action...my economical analysis said..."hey, good for bulls"...news, looks like a no event...we return to the beginning of london open...so bulls, I think, are fighting hard
Hi Lusan lets see, if the Bulls wanna play.
I look at the USD/Yen daily chart, can't help it but feel like it trapped betwwen the rocks and a hard place.
I was more curious if you've heard about Pavlov's Traders Rule and if so, can you explain what it is... I have seen the reference to Pavlov's Traders Rule a few times laity on the thompson's news feed
thks
Hi Mr, G
I think its about trading to the edge, and pushing some more, Or something like that. I think this for yuppy dealers.
I'm not from that school of thoughts.
I'm more from "the book" school . "Make the book, the bottom line is king."
Correct...Stocked..they cannot get out from the gate..from the yen..so you think that U/Y goes south?...actually that is what 5M is saying...am I again a Pig or Seppuku?...I mean: rescue mode.
Hi Lusan,
I think you may be on track, but you sure are gonna watch the grass grow.
I've been reading a lot of threads on FF since late 2006 but I actually discovered this thread around mid December 2007 but paid little attention to it.
I eventually registered as a member on FF around March 2008. Ever since, I've been digging very deep into all that you've presented here (very complex stuff but I think a lot of people here don't realize this even the so called members - sorry !!!).
I'm a quiet person by nature and I always prefer to stay quiet to assimilate uptimally. However, it will be a great dis-service not to at least say THANK YOU for all that you've freely given and for you precious time share with all of us here.
Great stuff that will keep me busy in terms of thought process, analytical evaluation & research for the next 1-2 years.
FTI, Thank you, Thank you and Thank you.
Special regards,
Nuplanet
Hi Nuplanet,
Thank you for your kind words,
You're very welcome.
I gave up on the bulls...they are having a nap...I rescued my scout...and began talking to the nanies..3 bear position open and happy..let us see what the bears will say...I think it will a very short run...very shallow speed.
Edit: is everybody sleep?
Hi Lusan,
Your virgin 24hrs trade day, right?
Sorry , but this is worst than twinlight zone.
There's no market at all. I think eveyones gone home.
I am done for the day.
So good morning, trade well,
Thanks for the book.
I have downloaded it, will be reading it this weekend.
About your compilation.
It is good. I am honoured that you have taken the trouble and time to compile my thougts and methodology.
Now it is your book, may it be your stepping stone to great trading.
Hi! Mr FTI,
I have read until this post just now and cannot help wanting to ask something. Initially, I have the same thought like you that why some fx pro organise seminars, courses, sell books to make some money while they can easily make big money through trading using their skills ? However, I got 2 answers as follow :
1) from one of their website is that : Why not earn both ways i.e via courses & trading as well. I seem to agree with this answer.
2) trading is at risk while the business of courses is deriving steady /good income. I also seem to buy this reply.
Nevertheless, right at the bottom of my heart, I still suspect a bit the truth of the above answers because I still think that trading (of course if you are able to) can make more money than having courses business which is not easy too.
May I have your opinion about their replies so as to clear my suspicion ?
Thank YOU.
Hi Billionaire,
In answer to your questions.
Let me say that I cannot speak for all, and that my perspective cannot be the only.
Books are not bad, in fact it is good for research and study. Thats how I learned what I learned. From books and mentors, from different perspectives and methodologies.
But I would be careful to take in the info , without much deep understanding and practise. Most important is if its suitable to me and the markets it is used in.
The problem with the k revolution is that , we are overwhelmed with it. Many learns a few good tricks and believe that theirs is the holy grail. Whats worst is that they become rigid with their interpretations of whats written and formulate dangerous rigidity in their protocols.
As for why people write books, I cannot comment.
I do enjoy good memoirs of people who had been successful in markets, as well as their penning of their methodology and psychology. But there is little to come by. There are much written about the financial markets because the subject commands premium pricing and has a wide audience. Only that because of this much commercialised financial porn is broadcasted worldwide mostly containing materials that promoted rigidity and misrepresentations.
If the authors had been successful in their pursuits, you can be rest assured that the finanacial gains are of no consequence to their well being. And because of this as well as the time locks that publishing entail, many tend not publish their skills. They either are resigned to mentoring a few, to pass on the skills, or seek out individuals that can carry their methodology as a legacy.
At the end of the day, success tends to bring all sorts of inconveniences to our doorsteps and in many ways , we do like to live our lifes without them. This also one of the reason why skills are not being published, as well as that wide spread methodology worship tends to dilute its effectiveness, as the living markets' variance absorbs and circumvents.
The short charts and the long charts dont tally anymore.
Crosses are making a ruckus....how do we make good use of this info fti? short the crosses? or sit out and see that pretty lady show her legs again?
Only the queen is sitting pretty right now...again.
sry bout the 10min chart....dukas does not have a running 5 min one.
No Jest,
peruse the hourly charts,
the kings are lining up for a USD bull charge,
the USD/Yen short charts are a little behind due to liquidity from crosses.
They are in sync, really.
Remember, the charts yesterday, we are in free fall territories.
Don't go catching falling knifes, now.
support, we talk again when it is at 1.5430 or lower
or after 10:00 figs ok
now heavily loaded.
OK now crossed out for figs.I left the continent playing with the cable while the US decides if this bull break is real.
David, the support is to allow the figs to get out of the way.
Its always like that, so after teh figs like 15 to 30 minutes look for opportunities again.
The yen boys are at it again.
So play with proper defense.
I suggest to baby sit through NY lunch,
There are engineers at work.
Don't be too large thru lunch,
react accordingly.
I seriously do not know what this markets are waiting for.
But I feel that they are trying to spook people that only strong cash USD holders may be carrying the USD.
Hi ,
just to let people know .
Don't try to cross out your exposures for FOMC rates.
because all the USD swaps will be affected, so all forex markets will be impacted.
Nah
I turned again, bloddy pig I am,
markets very confused.
How can a report that says the us economy will be in recession be good for the USD.
If the econ figs remains bad for anote quarter US officially goes into recession.
Scouting Short USD for me.
They made me turn twice already.
I'll take my chances with the USD bears for now.
your scouts may be correct , lets see what happen in the twinlight zone.
The fact that the USD bulls couldn't run , show that its run out of steam,
If the daily charts does a turn around, it will be very bloody for the "Investors". I ''ll flow with the bears until chart proves otherwise.
MaMood, Anytime you hearing oil money in the market, pls alert us, thanks.
"tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters."
Last week, the Labor Department reported that the nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.7 percent in July as businesses laid off workers for the seventh straight month, a string that normally signals the start of a recession.
Dow went crazy euphoric yesterday.
Hourly indicates that USD may be reaching ceiling.
Im unsure of the trend right now, it would have been a smart option if we had stretched th range the past few days.
im not sure of anything yet right now. Data shows weak US, fomc already indicated that, the inability to increase rates and decrease it.
My predictive me thinks USD may float for a while as the rest of the world economy take a tumble and proly go on interest cuts. Thus, im not expecting anything spectacular on the YEN, but gbp, aussie and to a certain point euro, may pin the trend.
The above is of course just a mere opinion, it should not be pre-empted into my intraday trading mindset, coz it may kill me. follow where the hot money goes. Technically usd bulls are losing momentum.
Sitting out...
Hi jest,
It is foggy now, very.
The USD bears are mostly in bad bad shape.
The Usd bulls , well, they are not incline to turn bears yet due to daily chart considerations, YET.
Although the US may be in recession. everyone 's kissing it with optimistic opinions ,due to vested interest , and HOPing for the best.
So this is just bear test grounds.
UNLIKE, all these people , I am ronin.
I go where the money is, so am early bear against the daily charts. This is because I am disappointed with the rates announcement and that the BULL momentum suddenly died. But I am not stupid, so my skews are inwards and downsized. This is for safety in case he bulls comes charging again.
For now no one knows what to expect in the longer term for the USD. So I will be a little stream that flows away from the River. But when the river comes arushing, I will up skew.
For now am just flowing, too foggy to see anything.
I think the answer to this is yes, but asking for clarity. Do you increase the aggressiveness of the skew when price action on all time frames is in your favor?
One of my first mentors, a blacklisted professional blackjack player taught about the need for unleveled positioning. there are trades that are better setups than others, when the really good ones come along best get large.
There's been a couple of times when your positioning is larger than others, just trying to visualize the mindset. When overall daily hourly all is sinc, or ???
curious,
regards,
a
Hi auxesis,
I spiral within spirals, but this is complicated.
There are no rules, It depends on experience.
The change is dependent on several factors,
form, depending on the rhytym,
shape, depending on the volitility and sigma,
book, depending on foreign capital levels,
When aggressive, I skip rightwards levels of progressions,
when defensive, I skip leftwards levels of progressions.
That is why you sometime see me stay a progression, a few times , before moving along. This stay is the precursor to the mode change that will come by. This is not easy to understand, unless you are very experienced with the MO and MM you are being introduced to. When you become more season in the methodology this tweaking , it just comes. It like a natural development to another stage of skills.
It is difficult to explain, this further takes out any rigidity, and that the risk taking shifts more and more to experience from the initial MO. But for many here, the initial basic AOW MO is still not within their grasp, yet.
Good morning FTI,
I have been the occasional observer since discovering your thread in February. After 6 months of my losing money with signal services and learning TA, your MO made a lot of sense. So I began trying to adapt it into my trading. After many great victories and disastrous losses with my new sword. I must say I'm a much better trader and enjoy trading more each day due to your lessons.
After each big loss I would come back to your thread to refresh myself on the MO and tame my scorpion. The last few weeks your updates and running battles have really put all the pieces to your puzzle together for me. I hope you feel like your time and effort here is worth it. It is much appreciated by myself and lots of others I'm sure.
So thank you for sharing your experience here with us. You are a very wise and generous man to give so freely. You have helped us learn a great skill and I'll be thankful to you for the rest of my life.
thanks,
Brandon
Hi Brandon,
Thank You for your kind words.
I am glad to have helped.
again, i found myself playing at the 80 level. yest fomc was dissapointing. I regretted staying up lol but i had suspected that i may have to wait for asia to find anything lucrative. I did away with some 18pips downwards, reduced the skew and closed out after the announcement. Did you see how clueless the markets reaction was after the announcement? It went up and down and there, NY boys did it again, they're becoming the backstreet boys of fx now...
I think that did it for me, clues are suggesting that they dont want a dollar to go beyond 400, now we have to see how accepting they are towards 500.
10 members here, only 8 visible. 2 Ronins, are u one em, fti? lol, i think i should be ronin too.
Hi jest,
If you want to know my opinion, I do not believe the plays now are coming from the US. I believe the "investors" had punped alot into USD and are doing everything possible to prop up the USD, I don't know if this is with the feds blessings, but it sure is working favourably for them to have ronins fight the battle for them.
Anyway, I don't care how big or powerful they are or may be. I trust the girls, they will go where it should be ultimately. Only that manipulation , will make the journey more painful than otherwise.
No , jest , I was signed out for lunch, just got back. Those arn't ronins. they 're ninjas.
I am trying to find out who they are, and excommunicate them. Otherwise failing , this thread dies.
There is always ninjas, an all threats on FF fti, dont't worry about them. There is always a peoples hiding behind. they like ""watching""
I noticed that on other threat is the same situation, whenever the technology gives them a right, they are using.. (what is the difference between guests and ninjas? ) thay are the same !!
Hi Piters,
I guess what you say is true. There's always ninjas everywhere in life.
But it would be nice to be able to identify the hostiles from the friendlys.
Not that all friendlys will be allies, but at least knowing helps to avoid certain dangers.
I wonder, if there are such rooms somewhere. But this is chicken and egg thingy. Sure don't want to exclude people trying to learn. For now I guess I will depend on the mods as protection mechanism , unless something untowards happens again.
if your are pegged to the dollar whatever happens to the dollar happens to you...you cannot use policies to manage economical cycles, etc...etc.
I am bearish-scalping until clarity-wrong direction trouble- great chance to practice U/CH hedging-I am beginning to like multiple pairs trading...very flexible indeed
Bull came back very angry and strong...U/CH parabolic...my plan: when bull rest collect my dollars and rescue E/U...So I am not a pig this time, what am I?
am way back in thread and fti mentioned 'managed pegging' in a post ... have searched for meaning but no luck... can someone please tell me what it means.
joy
Hi joypips,
Sorry , the replay is late, was riding the bull.
What you mentioned is about the Structure of the Forex makets.
Basically there is 3 structures in the forex market,
Before "bretton woods" all forex markets were pegged.
They were all peg to Gold. Depending on the gold reserves a country held, that would be the pegged, if you wiki "Gold standard Financial system" you will find the price tables where all the world currencies were pegged.
After the bretton wood agreement , the free world currencies were removed from the peg. and was allowed to be free floated and trading of it was between banks. The currencies like USD, Yen, cable, swiss were the major currencies that were floated. The CBs managed the exchange rates by monetary and fiscal policies like they do now. This structure of the forex markets is known as managed float.
Then there is the managed pegged system , which some countries decided to adopt, examples are like the state of Brunei, where its Burnei $ is pegged to the Singapore dollar.
Whatever the Singapore $ traded, that was what the Brunei $ would be pegged on.
While this is the new system of forex management, some countries , adopted the fixed exchanged rates regime where
the currencies exchange rates are fixed by the CBs, example are the iron curtain countries, russia , China, Malaysia....etc.
I hope this helps.
If you research about foreign exchange and markets you may get a clearer understanding , as it is too long a subject to explain in a posting.
Not really...I am practicing this thing you did yesterday...I am doing it live...Crazy? ....Of course, I learn by experimenting...of course...today a bullish pig is a king...so far minimum losses...
My name is mr. Lost...
Hi Lusan,
What I did was to defray risk exposures, by crossing away the USD risk to meet the figs that wa expected.
from short of EUR/USD where the Usd portion would be exposed to risk from figures I sold the USD for STG . effectively having EUR/STG cross. After the figures this was revsed back to Eur/USD . The exercise is to avoid figures risk.
What you are doing is creating the risk. It is a dangerous way to trade.
This is the same direction that Leighsww had taken.
If you insist the markets will teach you a lesson, when you learn it the hard way, maybe you would like to share you experience . But please do not promote it's use.
I am not sure whether any body has ever talked about what I'm going to ask because I read till page 97 ATM.
My thought :
Instead of sending a scout into the battlefield to feel the dance, can we imagine that there was a scout already at centain point of the battlefield by looking at the chart ? Then, we will now to decide how to rescue or attack accordingly ? Maybe, this imaginary thing can be extended to cover our 1st troop of rescue/attack, can we try to be smart like that so that we can reserve more troop force ?
regards,
Hi billionaire,
Yes it is very creative, BUT
A scout is exposure, it is trading, when wrong , you may have saved money. but when right, How are you going to initiate that position in a market thats away??
For me , my scout is correct most of the time , and that allows foreign capital for attacks. if wrong I skew to save them.
Tell me how your MO may look like?
Here it is...
Yesterday I was worry that I did not now how to deal with a news announcement when I was with losing positions...so I thought and that case I have an emergency. Either (1) pull the plug, (2) hedge with some other currency, or (3) gamble...I pull the plug and I saw my profit gone!
Today I found myself misreading the market...caught in a storm with 3 position open...Be a pig or experiment save your book? With 1 small scout, I would be probably a pig? With 3 going the wrong way?...bad for my book!
So I decided to test life the hedging thing. I bought U/CH because its smaller spread than G/U...
Good thing: Saved the book...I am alive to fight another day
Bad thing: Where is my profit? 90 pips and I go nothing.
I would not recommend it because it's taking with the left what the right hand has. When you were away, we discussed this issued. I tested and discarded. Somebody kept experimenting and works around this approach...
Hi Lusan.
I think the book of strategems has a name for this strategy.
I Think it is the 37th strategem.
It seems you wrote some foul language? Couldn't understand it, a slang?
What foul language, ask anyone from HK . They'll explain it to you. It is a powerful strategy to correct the mindset.
Is USD bull running the last wave(wave 5)?
Would E/U test support zone 5400~5300?
Would G/u test support zone 9350~9450?
Would U/J meet 110 resistance?
All of the above
I know "no prediction", and I paid also dearly cost for this lesson. But special attention shall be paid to.
Last week we saw price try a double bottom only to form a descending triangle, continuation pattern and price has broken the 5520 floor, which has been tested and held so far.
We had a couple of corrections last weeks end but we are now making lower lows / lower highs.
Price is $ bull, so how can any one now say that they are looking $ bear??????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
I received a whipping for this last week
Hi auxesis,
The media info releases all suggest that it is one of the possibilities, like always.
Moreover, people like the exitement of catching falling knifes.
There's no lesson like getting wacked on the head. then maybe, they will remember it.
I guess its hard for people to learn to feel pulse, but they most certainly can feel what (unaccountable) people's suggestions.
Actually, I believe you meant the opposite...in a tight range, rescue works extremnly well...rememeber we only rescue with the trend, never against the trend...as soon as we see that the trend is against up, rescuing is very risky.
What I meant: I have my scout (remember 1/6 full size for my waves), I see the trend change...what do I do? I cannot rescue against impulse or trend...
then I have 4 choices, (1)kill the poor soldier and go with the trend [definitely best solution and you are a pig], (2) forget about the poor man/woman and trade U/CH or U/J [and you are a traitor], (3) the dynamic hedging I practiced today [and you are a LOST man], or (4) freeze and pull the plug [worse case]
Hey...this is what I understand so far...I hope this help you...
I'd better keep learning...every day a lesson...
Hi,
There is only one right thing to do.
Turn onwind.
The people who have vested interest is big, they are the wind for now.
Why do people wanna swim against the flow? Please tell me why.
Sure the logic does not click, How can an enconomy in depression be buyable?
Yes, but people are buying it, and they are big.
So why do you wanna fight them? Are you bigger?
Yeah , trying to master complex strategies, when you cannot even master one is foolish ! very foolish.
Its exackly what I said , 著虫進肛門, catching worm and putting it up your anus. Why be an itchy hindside.
You go looking for trouble in the market carrying that chip on your shoulder , and rest assured, YOU WILL FIND IT.
I took profits too early more than 3 times.
The last one was at 27.
Now I am long USD again at 14, 10, 07
Just go with the flow, why is that so difficult?
WHY?
Have you ever heard of the term "foolish intelligent".
What matters is book. If its losing money, all the intelligence does not matter.You are still losing.
You are NOT dancing the market. You are trying to predict it by your intelligence. If the market doesn't follow your intelligence. It can only mean that she is dancing something else. Something that your are not privy to,now.
regards
s x 17
It seems to me that the more skillful you think you have become the more rigid your mindset. Watch that egor !
16:03 +0.2 Eu 15471
16:08 +0.3 Eu 15470
16:37 -0.5 Eu 15467
16:43 -4 Gu 19487
17:13 -1 Eu 15475
17:20 -1 Eu 15475
17:22 -1 Eu 15471
17:28 -1 Eu 15472
17:35 -1 Eu 15473
17:55 -0.8 Eu 15467
18:25 +5.8 Eu 15465
Today, I some sort of trying your concept to dance in the market (Gold & Silver trading as I am in a 2 weeks contest organised by OSK Asia Precious Metals Limited). I now realised that having an imaginary scout will lost some feel of the market as at least, I am not able to feel the "speed" of the market where the imaginary scout was sent to. So no imagination but reality now.
I knew that you do not advocate trading rigidly such as the method I mentioned. But I appreciated very much to have a super veteran (A group of people that I can hardly meet and talked to) to comment on the pro & con aspect of the method. FYI, my point of view is price action will ultimately goes farther (up or down) from a fixed entry level after sometimes (maybe a short or long time), so, if one has sufficient capital to start small like your MO, is the method still viable ?
Kindly let me know & my apology if this is not appropriate to discuss the above in your thread. Thank you.
Regards,
Hi
Sorry ,due to different mindset and MO, I cannot comment at the mom.
My brains are totally engaged in battle mode carrying loss book.
Hi ALL,
OMG, the broker keep shading me and my skew went to the dogs.
Only managed to recover about 80% of loss.
Now mu ear aches from hanging on the dang phone.
Don't be too long USD from here .
Tom is friday and your're sitting on a neckline of a double top on the daily. This is a compounded neck with a double top within, so its not gonna break easily. Be absolutely nimble.
Looks like 1 more leg to the neck zone. BUt this gotta be small and very swift, becareful/
Till now since 8:45 AM EST, the USD keeps going up against EUR, but gold price seem reluctant to drop much further, anybody know the correlation % between gold price & USD ?
Hi Billionaire.
There is non universal impact, only localised impact.
You seems to have a MAJOR problem with understanding market relationships.
Your training will destroy your book and your financials , not withstanding your ability to think in battle scenerios. Unfortunately you are not alone , many here on this thread, not counting those on FF, have this problem.
See if you can understand this.
There is no logical relationship whatsoever between the different markets, however there is symbiotic relationship( known as basis), in that some fundamentals influence them based on common impact , some inverse impact.
The relations exist when the markets behave in unison, otherwise the different markets may be affected by other localised factors.
By context, lets say a girl behaves in a certain manner when she is dating you, but that doesn't mean that she behaves the same when dating someone else. You have and effect on her behaviour , similarly , others impact her differently.
So when you try to relate the impact of one market on another , you must also viewthat if the markets do not behave as you expect them to, then something else that you are not privy to is affecting it.
We can argue until the cows come home, on why, how...
but the fact is that if the impact is not felt in the market place , just accept it.
Trying to split hairs on the issue , will just distract your focus on reality (whats actually happening) and make your mindset rigid. This can prove dangerous to your book.
what do you mean by following? but the answer is yes, fti has mentioned several times that he does not use electronic broker.
Hi piccolo,
Since we are on this subject and you are a geek.
I will share a little probing that I had been doing.
From info that I had gathered from discussion with "big boys".
It seems that the prices that the ECN is receiving are thru, broking house quotations. This is because after extensive search thru spot interbank treasuries, the result is that no one is pumping prices to the e broking system.
There was some comments that the e broker are trying to setup, but treasuries does not seem to be behind it. There is strong suggestion that it is run by "big customers" and they use prices pumped to them to make markets. Whats disturbing to me is it seems that amongst these "bigs", they are split into different levels. It was suggested that there is level 1 where the bigs spar with the bigs. Then there is level 2 where the corps spar with the bigs. And then there is level 3 , whereby the smalls get prices , which are filtered thru computers and shaded against the smalls book.So there is a hair cut on the prices and the computer are programmed to shade according.
Someone , suggested that thats why, the prices are streamed (spot interbank we have to request prices to trade), moreover , althought prices are streamed, it was suggested that they had implimented algorithms that the computers use to "flip" an additional decimal pip. It was suggested that it is here where the flipping is done that certain critical prices are either not hittable due to the "flipping".or too fast to be hittable. If this was true then it would be diavantages to trade against a computer. Of courese it may be posible to write scripts to track individual and have the computer do advantage activities as well.
Due to this concerns I went back to trading thru the conventional trading avenues until such time when the ECN systems are legitimised, for my fears.
In the conventional systems , dealers quote only to 4 decimal points and we are allowed to hold his price for up to 5 seconds , baring fast markets were they will "off quote", and requote when requested. All the electronic quotes I had withness and tested with small accounts, seem to indicate that the speed whereby the quotes are 'flipped" makes hitting difficult, esp those that quote to 5 decimal pips.
As you are a geek, may I ask you if my fears are unfounded and unreasonable?
Another alternative is that I could trade thru interbank broking, except that my size and name is not marketable , they requires min tickets of 1 mio . If I could tap into that then I would have realtime streaming spot interbank prices to trade. For now, I would have to content with proxy derivative based broking for trades.
These are small time bank backed dealers. But they are painful to deal with at times.
If you analyse the day's trades, You may find some errs that I made in trading.
Due to whippy markets and fig releases.
Net book today suffered a 1+% loss.on cap.
Impressive. But it is not the trading style I am devoloping. Look the time you closed the positions.
Hi David,
Try to remember this.
YOU have to flow with the market.
NOT the market have to flow with you.
If you truely want to b successful in trading,
then she dictates the time , as well.
If you need to go off, and she is not ready to move , then you have to square your positions. Imagine , when your positions are highly skewed and you have to book the loss.
Many people wnat to be successful, bt are unwilling to put in the required.
This may be one of the reasons, why dangerous overnight positions are being carried , over time this has become the trend. AND they ask why they failed.
What a night!!
Hope you had your asian scout/troops on the right side of the move.
My overnight scout was USDJPY long, but only made a few pips.
USDJPY was the only USD related pair without a major move.
Nevertheless he is in a good situation to start these day!
Have good success today.
My motto of the day is: NIMBLENESS!
Regards,
MaMood
Hi MaMood,
Good Day too.
no, she went on without me, I was sleeping.
Thought of putting small boy in after some days of congestion.
But thats what I get for being predictive.
Your motto is good.
regards
Do you know why the yen didn't move?
Because they are the anchor behind the whole USD bull run.
Its their neutral currency to play with the rest of us.
yes watching... are they big enough to keep it going or just a sweep do you think. btw are you still long? fti will have his whip on you sounded very much like predicting
joy
Hi joy,
yeah, the truth joy, is we never ever know for sure.
So managing it is important.
I understand what you mean. To make a success in whichever carreer or business, overtime hardworking should be dedicated, otherwise you have no chance. It is no problem for me either, when we are preparing tender books for an urgent project, we also work overnights without sleeping.
You are a good person. I am concerned about your health. Do you have backache, neck problem, heavy smoking? I think you have all these as I do.
For me, I use 5M to refine the timing. But if trading on 5M, I tried but it would be very tired, and over long time, tend to make more mistakes. It is not sustanable for me personally.
I know you used to trade for banks, but you are retail trader now. You had an exellent analysis on the head and shoulder pattern form from July 14~July 16. But one question, which will make more? By buying-and-holding positions of reasonable size from the time of your analysis, or by actively trading from that time.
Just my 2 pips.
Tonight there will be Olimpic Games Openning Ceremony, I will watch TV and no trading. And from today, I will watch Olimpic games, maybe no tradings at all. So see you the end of month.
Take care and good trading to you and all.
Hi David,
Yeah, A lot of activities and celebration.
Olympics opening, then we have Singapore Independence day (national Day)
celebrations on the 9th August.
Thanks for that insight.
Never thought about that.
I have to ponder about that.
Just cos I can't really imagine your "MO" with your broker:
If you are doing so much trades in a very short time (sometimes there have been only 2 minutes betwenn them) do you have a leased line to your broker?
Or is it on a call by call basis?
For your convenience I hope you have a headset ...
Hi MaMood,
How I wished I had broker voice boxes, like I used to, at home.
Now that I am retired , its just not possible.
I have a setup of multi, autodial lines , and sometimes I hold on phone speakers if I expect to trade. They pick me up very quickly, as I am old gun.
I can complain quite vigourously if service is not to mark. Iguess with this protocol, I do sometimes miss certain trades which is sometime good, and sometimes bad.
I am experimenting small with a couple of ECNs but I find that their prices at always hit at a disadvantage. However I look forward that when this retail forex industry matures from its infancy to be able to migrate the trading there. But they have to have acceptable ecthics before this can happen.
Sometimes I am a bit laid back , for health reasons.
These few weeks I am more on the ball , as am trying to do handson for some here to appreciate whats presented. But really , I guess I am a little rusty,and haven't put my best foot forward.
Wow - you are a really tough professional!
As most of us (at least me) were stressed to feel the market and not to lose alignment with her moves, you have to handle that kind of communication on top ...
RESPECT!!!!
Thanks MaMood,
Makes me feel valid.
Some feelings to vent.
Dedicated to Richard Loke and to my many friends in the frontlines of the market battles, who had kicked the bucket......May you all be dealing away,,, wherever you are !.
Hi ALL,
Ah... , the plunging knife.
Unfortunately , didn't have the energy to trade today.
Missed it twice, and all within my time zone.
Sure ly a waste.
MaMood, didi you manage to climb on this stampede?
Hi MaMood, that's only my feel when I see a dragon picture because Chinese think they are the descendant of dragon, not monkey
I don't know what it means to Mr FTI
regards,
This the heritage I inherited. I am the eldest of my family book now. Therefore I am seal bearer.
In the Qing Dynasty 大清帝国 1644 to 1912., the Dragon Dance team of the province of Foochow (Fu Zhou) was commissioned in the court at Peking. Greatly praised and admired by the Qing Emperor, he bestowed on them "Qing Long"
Therefore the decendents of the Fu zhou inherited "Descendants of the Dragon Throne" (龙的传人)
It symbolizes the bringing of good luck and prosperity in the year to come for all the human beings on earth.
Green is sometimes selected as a main color of the dragon, which symbolizes a great harvest. Other colors include: yellow symbolizing the solemn empire, golden or silver colors symbolizing prosperity, red color representing excitement while its scales and tail are mostly beautiful silver colors and glittering at all times which provides a feeling of joyous atmosphere.
Singapore Foochow Dragon Dance
Note, the traditional setup for dragon dance, where always a mock Qing Throne is always recreated.
Foochow xiao long dui 2OO6 competition
These are miniature dragons, if you ever get to see the authentic Foochow dragon dance, you may appreciate its magnificence.
my trader mindset is off and puzzled...after so strong of a bull, the retrace not so strong...still I went short, made my day target and the book is happy...I feel that greed could really kill me today...so I am out for the day.
Have a good trading day.
Regards
PS.: I love the poetry of the chineese language. Nice avatar.
Hi Lusan,
Glad that you had a good day.
I am quite flat today.
The USD Bull seems to be intact but experiencing a little retracement.
The bears strength seems discipating even as we speak. I look forward to a two way battle ahead, bias is Bull USd.
I've been lurking around for some time, reading and trying to understand your method. I started learning forex only 8 months ago and luckily from the 2nd month of my education I've been focusing on naked trading solely. This is my second month of live trading and I'm already achiveing results I would never have hoped for. My only concern is how much i can trust brokers?
You are the only person I know who trades multiple lots, so I'd like to hear your opinion on this. Can I trust brokers (Oanda at the moment) with 50 std lot positions just as easily as with 1 mini lot?
I might be paranoid but I heard/read so many things about suddenly broken connectios, frozen platforms etc.
Until this issue isn't clear I dont really dare trading large volumes.
I wrote you an email a few days ago on this, which you didnt answer. If you didnt respond on purpose just say so and I wont ask again.
Thank you in advance!
Hi,
I am sorry , but I have no email from you in my inbox.
I hope that you may appreciate that it is not possible for me to check all the emails that I receive daily. This is esp so for spam and mail from unknown sources.
On the subject of brokers credit risk, I would have to disappoint you that I am trading spot interbank on banks customer desk now. As my testing of retail ECNs is incomplete, I am unable to comment, just.
After a mild Bull run.
Seems that she is stalled and no clues whatsoever.
I am still bias USD bull, but I have to wait for time windows to open, nothing for now.
Lets hope London do have some clues.
They seem to have been clue less and driven by paper for a while.
But seems that papers are early so hitting out of either Frankfurt or zurich.
Could it be sun parties, doing covert activities in Euro time?
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks. So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
So if this is true , the CBs were in the market, only that they were not doing OMO. So they were hiding behind the GBs and draining away the USDs.
Thanks DutchAngel, for the info.
Here's a little song for you. Perfidia.
regards
This is the usefulness of Technical Analysis/ Chart Analysis.
It can highlight to traders, major activities behind the curtains before such info is available to the masses.
Miss-use of the tools, in making them crystal balls is dangerous MO.
You are right. We see it happening but we also want to know why. I am not being predictive with my following statement, I am voicing a fear. Fed has two agendas, namely to keep inflation low and to keep economic activity high. ECB has one agenda and that is to keep economy stable. My fear is Euroland still has to face same economic drama US is going through and that ECB will be forced to drop rates. This will strengthen dollar further.jmo.
Hi DutchAngel,
I see.
But the statement after signing off from my song for you, was not directed at you. Rather it was a general statement about Technical Analysis.
In my opinion, the ECB has little downside rates potential. The general policies before EU was created were firm rates across Euroland, due to recovery efforts from the WW2 which is still in repair. Weakness in rates would drive away much of the foreign funds inflows , which is still much needed in recovery from her historicals. I would look forward to no rates movement to mildly hawkish rates outlook in response to US wooings.
regards
@ALL
markets in retracement mode.
Bulls are non aggressive, look forward to volitile, retracement activities. This requires much nimbleness. esp for newbies, be small.
On the daly charts scene, a reversal is in progress.
I realized the song was not directed at me, no need for clarification. I have edited my post as it was predictive. There is more than one way to skin a cat and rates could be raised if inflation fear becomes greater. Who knows what goes on behind the scenes. I try to find explanation by picking up crumbs here and there, but still in the dark.
Anyway, I am off to spend some euro's now.
regards
DutchAngel
Hi DutchAngel,
You have mistaken.
The song was directed for you.
The STATEMENT after the song was general talk.
Good for you, clever people spend their Euros when she is strong.
Then earn it back when it is weaker, and end up with more than you first begun.
The market mode is getting very tricky.
Markets are scuttering and unstable.
I believe many had given up for today.
I had just scaled my positions to minimum exposure.
All this sudden jerking runs , just indicates thinness in liquidity.
There's much basis tear in interbank prices and retail forex quotations and little arbitrage is observed to align.
Its best to take things easy, until the coast is cleared.
Indeed, London seems clueless. Tokyo was wonderful though.
I always get tons of confidence from trading those range brakeouts.
Good trading to all!
Hi,
It just means that the marketmakers are the only liquidity around.
Mostly around are pockets of orders here and there.
So the markets are wherever the marketmakers sweeps towards , that why the jerky jumps. Otherwise there is really noting much around the market place.
Its just marketmakers sparing wjth each other backed by some paper.
I speculate that markets may be somewhere in beijing , having their leisure.
I know that DutchAngel is out shopping. LOL
I don't feel that there're any bull, bears nor pigs around.Mostly bystanders with a little vested (caught in) positions.
Just back from shopping now and feel very bad about all euro's I blew, but I actually saved money because next week I am going to London with daughters and hopefully the guilt from today will still be felt so that I am a bit more fiscally restrained when spending the pounds.
I don't know why the song Perfida was for me, as it means treachorous or faithless and all though I will be first to admit that I am no angel, I also dont think i am perfidious.
Hope I haven't offended you somehow.
regards
DutchAngel
Hi DutchAngel,
Sorry , Please do not be mistaken.
I didn't meant to say that you were perfidous.
really if anyone was , it would be the CBs.
To me perfidia, always meant flirtatious.
not so much cruel , but head strong more than heart weak.
In many ways I am a very perfidious trader to the markets.
And Perfidia is one of the songs very close to my heart.
I don't know why, but the melody captured me for many decades already.
May be the likeness in nature.
I apologise if it came over wrongly. ....... Thousand apologies.
regards
Oh and don't worry about the spending.
If you relate it in pips, its minute.
So long as the markets are giving you the pips,
Who is to say you cannot , splash a little.
It makes all the suffering worthwhile.
The music is beautifully played on the harmonica, just my latin skill (which I admit is pretty rusty by now) perhaps translated the word more harshly than you intended. No offence was taken, I was just a bit puzzled
Hi DutchAngel,
Glad you understand,
regards
Now from exposure I am super bear usd,
perfidious me.
Yes , Lusan, they had been difficult to handle.
Guess they want their pips back.
Not so easy.
the bulls are not so strong anymore.
Wonder why?
Is it a trap? will know in 3 hours time.
Meantime got some USD back for lunch repositioning.
Smells of a USD retracement in the works.
The way its been moving.
Only problem, is the Beijing games, is creating some effects on the liquidity.
Its still wave 1 if its true retracement, otherwise they get their pips back.
We'll see.
I am not a fan of the USD bear.
Only that the BuLL are not friendly, so I am in bear suit for now. LOL
Euro had begun making some higher lows, highs but over all she still looks short.
Be careful she dosen't head south, could be some type of declining ending diagional perhaps
regards,
4880 needs to hold here for the longs
Hi auxesis,
She could have done that like 11 times by now,
Something is not right.
There is vested interest that a technical reversal is not spotted today on the daily, otherwise we could see big fig changes in the prices on the rebounding Eur.
Lets see.
My bleeding is still tolerable for some distance.
im long eur now, averaged at 4889. YEN is looking to spoil my oh so perfect day....
yesh.jest.
By all standards the USDYen had found a top.
But the volitility swings are keeping aggressive sell of USDyen at bay.
Let see if this could pick up close to end of day actions.
At the moment the pulse is bear USD.
But there is this over hang of lurking (big) bulls,
Let see if the bulls got anything left.
If the charts turns today.
The Bears would be out for blood.
If trading today is too stressful or if foreign cap doesn't permit risk positions. Could wait a couple of days, the fog should lift for safer trading.
Of course the R/R would be different.
Battlestation
regards.
Funny day this 08.08.2008.
The Olympics gave great fireworks galore.
Then US ally Georgia, attempts to disturb sleeping giant ,Russia.
creating tension at Caucasus/Ukraine SSR .
And the USD goes for gold in a race of its own.
Donno , smells a rat.
Could backfire, so be vigilant.
Keep feeling her, she may tell the story soon.
If tension remains, the flight to safty instrument may not be USD , as the Us is in recession. The more prudent hedge would be precious metals. So things may backfire on the USD.
I would keep this behind my mind while I find more clues from the market dance.
I am putting USD/CHF chart on just to keep the possibilities in check.
TODAY is the day when BAN on naked short sales on biggest 10 financial intitutions is expired. As I remember it is a 10 day BAN, and the tenth day is 12 August..
""The commission pushed back expiration of its ban on so-called naked short sales of the firms’ stocks to Aug. 12, it said in a statement. The order “will not be further extended,” the S.E.C. said.
Some heavily shorted financial companies not covered by the previous order, such as National City and Wachovia, had sought to have their names added to the S.E.C.’s list. But the roster of 19 stocks remained the same.
The commission’s temporary order aims to keep traders from driving down financial stocks to bolster profits. Bear Stearns and IndyMac Bancorp collapsed amid rumors they were faltering.""
IMHO, if regulators steps in to do damage control. you can be quite sure that something systemic is broken.
Only that we don't know what it is.
If the domino keeps on building up, it may take the whole system down when the shxt hits the fan.
Lets see if this is true. Its very close to october.
Anyways, follow the flow, closely.
Uhhh, I know, the problem is that the DAMAGE is too big, CC, Bonds, Pension Fonds, ... they are next on a list.. The guys are too busy to keep everything ""Under Cover"" until elections finshed.. (That''s why I understand Paulson when he says, that after the elections he is leaving treassury"" Too Stresfull !
P.S.But what I am amazed is the thing that a lot of Financial Institutions are already in long/short (naked) position when the Ban started.. So the question is: what they are going to do FIRST thing when SEC lift the Ban? (maybe cover the positions? So the other question is: appart of all technical Analysis, can we expect a lot of volatility tomorrow ??
Rise your SAILS and sail
Hi Piters,
These are the price to pay for interference with free markets.
If you have found the way to chase airplanes, please teach me.
IMHO, only thigy is either you're on board before take off, or you spend the night at the airport waiting for the next available.
I think forget the 14950.
If the yen can be pushed below 10940 all hell couls break loose.
Just stay as best you can , until small boy 's dance.
May be interesting.
Hi ALL,
I may be a little paranoia.
But it seems that many of my favorite youtube video links are dead.
It could be that theres alot happening there and some videos had been killed.
But it could be that theres really pradators lurking here abusing lurking privileges.
So, for while I go on a reki mission,
I shall be updating this thread sparingly.
When I go to sleep, sometimes I set take profit levels on my positions, so that if market moves or spikes in my direction and comes back, I don't miss it totally..
yesterday I had -34 pips on GBP/USD and a take profit level of +17. so it exited on the spike. first time i got lucky on a glitch like this.
now imagine stop loss orders..
Hi piccolo,
This is wrong mindset and dangerous MO.
If your analysis is not top notch or if you experience variance in volitility,
you could wake up and not recognise the location where your are.
However of course it is relative and if your NORMAL exposure is 10 to 20 times the position, OR if you have much risk capital for variance risk, then it is your call. But in general, over time, it makes for bad MO and mindset.
My redaings say this is a steady euro bull turn but let's see what London has to say about it.
Is anyone suspecting just a retracement?
Hi resistance,
Do yourself a favour and read the thread carefully and completely if possible.
Your discussion protocol is different , therefore I sus[ect you either didn't read carefully or completely.
Yes. Hope so too. Just some thoughts on the E/U. The 2 days big reaction on the E/U could be due to the Georgian/Russian conflict. Now that a ceasefire has reportedly been sign, we could be seeing at least a retracement on the Eur/Usd. The huge down move over the last few days could be an over-reaction thus the E/U might resume its long term trend now.....
Just my 2 cents thoughts....and not trying to be predictive.
Remember....always dance with the market!
Regards,
Hi sitoca,
You could be right.
Only there is no evidence from market feel that it is the case.
Its hard to tell just yet. Suspicion from DuchAngel's research is that the feds may be intituting strategies thru CBs money markets.
Anyways we are very deep in a bull run so lets see if the bears are still alive.
and can claw back some ground.
Since friday last week I was most of time a quite reader of this thread, cos I was highly focused on dancing USDJPY. The first time in my trading life I felt the rythm of the dance. And if you really feel the lead of the lady, trading can be so easy.
THANKS to GRANDMASTER fti!!!
Many times before I thought, ok now I got it. I thought, I know what he meant by "feel the rythm". Now I can tell you: No I didn't got it! I was really far from the truth.
Well - it's very difficult/impossible to explain "dancing" by words.
All I can tell you is following:
- forget about news (of course not to reduce exposure in front of major figs)
- forget about trying to get grasp on why the market moves. May be it could be relevant, if you are fighting mid term battles with the Long Sword.
- Don't be predictive. Never! You don't need to be. All you need is PA!! Try to do practice session as often as possible. Try to dance every market. You will recognize, if you really got the rythm of the PA.
- You need a very proper kind of MM, a strong Mindset and discipline.
Sorry for my overwhelming gladness.
It's just unbelievable.
I'm sure - everyone is able to get to the end of the tunnel.
Thanx again fti!
Now I'll try to preserve the feelings I had, to become able to recall them.
Still a lot of training needed.
Be successful today, because you were able to be!
Hi MaMood,
Thanks for the kind words.
I am so glad that you, do understand the basic mindset and methodology.
Be aware that your mindset may change from challenge to challenge.
If you had felt the pulse, you will probably recognise when you are off. With all market opinion and reports, this is inclined to happen. If you revert to basic always, you will gain the experience to manage all possibkle variances she may throw at you.
try never to place yurself out of control from your comfort ability and you would do well.
As you just learned , its hard to describe the methodology in words, took me 300 pages to explain the simple concepts of truely professional trading and use of technical analysis.
Looking forward to your developing the skills at master levels . Go slowly, there isn't any short cuts.
fti trust me you don't want to retire to europe, we never have a summer (ask MaMood, he is my neighbour).
MaMood it seems as if you have had a light bulb moment. Congrats.
Today I am neither bull nor bear nor pig. I am a . Will just be observing therefore. Good trading to all.
Hi DutchAngel,
LOL, I don't have to retire to Europe now, many traders took the Eurs off me yestrerday and today. Now squared except for the little boy dancer.
The frame of mind is not bad. With this markets, it is appropriate.This USd bear is like in labour for days, and still cannot deliver. The relax mindframe is probably from protective stance of profits. This dance really benefits gutsy bulls mostly.
If thing starts to happen, then you should put on your battle gear. LOL.
Like to hear your opinion on this. The long tail that just formed on the hourly chart....was this caused by the stops position above 1.4960 or do you see it as some major players trying to push this market down?
Hi sitoca,
Thelong tail haave little significance. If you look at the dailt chart, many bears will be trying. The only problem is thare are much break-out traders , and this is the result of the markets, traps for them. Any bear over extends and they will be game.
Chances is that the bear attack isn't really ready , and so there will be many trapped bears, until the attack comes in force, if it does comes. So its a, How much stamina do you have , type of test.
No one can tell that the bears may come home. Based on their performance yesterday, they do not have critical mass yet for an attack. Only egor skimises, for ground. The bulls seems still in command of battlefield. There should be viloent test for the ground , before the bears may plant their flag. Stay tuned to the events there. it may give clues.
TIP: The possibilities of the bear attack is not gonna come from how the tops will be tested , but from how the bull support behaves.
gbp seems to be dragging the rest down too as it seems.
Euro girls failed to charm with those legs? Maybe just not yet.
I din buy her seduction tactics (but gbp's recent suicide might cause just me to rout), thus im still long averaged at 4930...fighting.
back to battlestations.
PS : hang sengs price action to day mimicked yesterdays....
No fighting est , you are being over runned.
Get out and join them , you certainly cannot beat them. 90/00 zone at best.
Careful the yen boys may be coming into battle soon.
No chance just bail out now.
1 - Carefull with the news...I do not have the proper mindset to be in front of the screen when the news are coming out...stay out or seat on your hands! 2 - The EMA(12) speed helps somewhat with the 5M trend...something to explore.
3 - Avoid greed...if in doubt...stay out
I am a bear and buying Euro on the deeps.
Regards,
Hi Lusan,
you go there and I wish you good luck.
It can only benckmark volitility.
to benchmark sigma( rate of change), you need benchmark bar to bar, the correct parameter is derived from expperience (plusing the ryhtym), or unless you have a fair value model to help.
You could see the bull coming into force after the 10:30 figs(3 sets).
Why didi you initiate bear scout?
Example , now at Lucnh, the bull is dominant, would you initiate bear positions on bull sweeps?
Yes, bulls are strong and this looks like a sweep...could I benefit from the sweep?
Lusan,
By such actions, you are displaying your impatience and in gamble mode.
You are effectively wasting bullets, when there is no attack possibilities.
You commit into bias hoping to catch extreme tops and bottoms on small swings. The best you could do was only to scalp.
And if you scalp, the marketmaker will bet you a it always as he takes a total of 4 pips minimum from you on every attempt.
Think carefully.
Impatience is dangerous.
If you wanted to scalp, it behoves you to stay eith day trend.
Contrarian trading on sweeps is sure way to the poor house.
Pls answer my question about your bear scout.
regards
im back in attack mode. was doing well with the USD bears during NY morning, then the bulls attacked, it was a good thing i reduced the skews before the news, used the foreign capital to fight it out for me.
Im still bearish dollar for now.
The broker must be happy with those commisions i paid for those rescues.
Jest,
unless you are trading futures contracts that charge exorbitant clearing fees,
ifyou trade forex spot ot retail, commission is of no real consiquense to your P&L. Trade P&L is.
Similarly to Lusan You are wasting bullets, on lunch hour trading, by committing to trendless endevour.
If you are scalping, then good Luck , you will need it.
Moreover it seems you gambled into the figs, Luckily they were not impact.
One day you will hit one that impacts, then you may have to pray very hard.
The trades before he release, Ihave no problems with, trading into figs is gambling.I hope you know what you are doing.
regards
I traded after the 2 realeases in the bull USD mode, the 1st allowed very mild attack, guess how I fared? I traded bull as that was status before the release, and the figs were non impact, therefore holding status quo.
Why do people like to trade views and contrarian after figs, cannot understand. Is it for excitement of being caught against figs? Is it Egor?
I understand that this time you made money.
The mindset and reaction is WRONG.
thank you for your advise.
You were right i should have remain flat during the release. hmm scorpion.
i was too hawkish with the performance i guess, and let egor took control.
I left the scout in to feel the movements but i agree, if i were to face something like what the iron lady does earlier or those capitulation like moves a few days back, i'd be sorely hurt.
Just to clear a point fti, no scouts during figs and flat out before figs, right?
best regards
jest
Hi jest,
Watch that Egor, overcome it.
In terms of position into figs, if you wanted to bet on the figs, make sure that you have at least 3 big fig foreign capital to back up every exposure.
I had ever trade 8 phening moves on fig releases in USD/DMK. Be mindful, just because you haven seen such yet, doesn't mean it will not happen.
Whether you want to risk into figs, is your own decision.
But make sure you have sfficient $$ to backup your gamble.
Always have a buffer.
If you were riding a trend into the figs, you may have to risk.
Like I said, have contingencies.