Hi ALL,
For those following the read on the "new world order".
Its very interesting and developing into a century of politics and curve fitting of world events, and now finalising to the jewish "lillith" legends of owls.
Seems like some plots about god and the devil. Really weird perspective, makes good sci-fi movie, LOL. Could these be real?? Possible.
Am i right in my analysis that the gbp/usd and eur/usd are not moving in harmony is this the kind of thing you mean by intermarket relationships? and is what gives clues to unrest in the markest?
Hi Acs_112,
No, the relationship now is out of sync, from normal. So ineffects , something in the undercurrent is developing. Only problem, being retired ,it is difficult to put my finger on it. By the time we find out , the battle may be over. Probably interest rates related.
What do you mean by the 'time scale' in the above situation and in trading in general (how u use it)? I myself believe that timing is a key element to understanding market structure and in general trading success; is it not?
And I think the above is a bit of a case of :
一 子 錯 , 滿 盤 皆 落 索
for the Feds.
Cheers, :-)
Hi gfsr,
LOL, well, lets see how they are going to back paddle the situation.
Wonder what spooked them to panic, the way they did.
Socgen incident is too lame an excuse.
But what's really weird is the strength in the USD now.
Maybe there's bigger sharks in the waters.
Most of my contacts are still on holidays, mostly are squared.
The balls in the feds court, most agreed. Even Brainspan. and some are trying to pin it on him.LOL
and he was the one always warning of the "excessive exuberance".
"Scapegoat" is the word, when "booboo" is more appropriate.
What a world? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/...t_surveillance
Yeah
"when you can't convince them. confuse them."
Oh, sorry , about time scale. I used wrong word, should be time tenure.
Brace yourselfs, its gonna be a long long rollercoaster ride.
The important thingy, be nimble, make it your advantage.
I have 32 troops and I bring them back home every so often for R/R. I mean: I lock my profits, my attack sequence is 1-2-3 and my rescue sequence is 3-9-20. I recuest more than once. I just pump the 5 M bar to break to protect my book.
Hi Lusan,
Am I reading right?
You really mean that your attack sequense is 3,2,1
and your rescue is 3,9,20 .
Right?
So your attack is a reverse fibo and your rescue is a greater than martingale.
http://www.sandfantasy.com/videoclips/LOVE-2008.wmv
Do not forget to watch the insistant bull usd now while enjoying this clip.
This is typical bullshit in action, but who cares just take the pips that they give. Try to avoid the traps.
Hi,
I am very new to trading and I think I am extreemly lucky to find this thread which I have to re read much slowly again.
Thank you fti and every body else on this thread.
As in all things, do not take things as gospel.
Think, investigate, feel it to seek the truth.
No one should allow one to be brainwashed, then redone by the another.
Use God given abilities.
It has been a journey.
I will be away for a little while ( may be a month or so) as I have to attend to some task.
I will however check back , when able to do so.
Most of the essentials, I believe I have posted on this thread.
There are fine tweaks and wrinkles which may not have been covered, but surely in due time.
It is not my intentions to make carbon copys of myself.
If you will, study diligently, and staying honest with yourself in what works for you. You could in due time, excel above and beyond me. Stay on the basics, on what ever new skills you may aquire. Seek to compliment your MO but forget not the basics of the dance.
For those who have benefited , I urge you to come forth and help deserving others who may need help.
As you have received freely, freely give.
Thanks for all the kind words from many of you.
Trade carefully and dance par excellence.
Good Fortune.
Hi ALL,
Hope your battles are fulfilling,
Have been off base and will be travelling again.
Seems pretty quiet here, just popin to tell that all is well for me.
Took a look at the markets, seems the feds gonna have their hands full soon.
Dance well.
regards
PS:
@ marc
They may own the piano and maybe the dance floor as well (your point is understood), but I have the rythem as well as my feet. And I can find the better dances (true markets) and I fear not the traitors (rogue brokers) in my camp, cos I know how to spot them. Merlin have given good hints.
The Charge of the Light Brigade
Alfred, Lord Tennyson
1.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
2.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Their's not to make reply,
Their's not to reason why,
Their's but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
3.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.
4.
Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.
5.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
6.
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.
This is my version. ( Sorry, Sir Alfred Tennyson but thank you for the beautiful poem)
The Charge of Sun Zi Brigade
1.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of victory
Rode the 'Sun' Brigade.
"Forward, the Brigade!
"Charge for the runs!" he said:
Into the valley of victory
Rode the Sun's Brigade.
2.
"Forward, the "Sun's Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
We will not blunder:
It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the market to pay for my ride,
Because my charts , they cannot lie,
Into the valley of victory
Rode the Sun's Brigade.
3.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Away from the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of plenty
Rode the Sun's Brigade.
4.
Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Others Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the Sun's Brigade.
5.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All and more of them,
More than the Sun's Brigade.
6.
When can their glory fade?
O the fine charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made,
Honour this trades I made,
of the Noble Sun's Brigade.
-------END----------
While I am unavailable, here 's something to read. READ carefully.
PS: for the many PM's, I am sorry but I am on the road, so I will answer them when I can. Please be patience.
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
Hi mijamoto,
Read and think carefully,
This legend became famous because of this report:
"in the presence of our representative, 286 transactions in various stocks, in 25 market days, on both the long and short side of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits and 22 trades lost."
The profit rate was up to 92.3%.
During that month, the average interval between trades was only 20 minutes.
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."
It was after he became famous that the techniques known to the world were engineered (to mask)and he came out to sell trading advisory.
Back to basics.
Try to formulate what is being taught now to this sequense of trades.
If you use what's been taught in public. These trades cannot happen.
Talk about masking bull to masses. there's surely one born every day.
His technique is hidden in the story, HINT: "time"
Note 286 trades in 25 days.
You still believe predictive?
believe me, his tech was not predictive, contracy to what he sold to the masses.
Understand what I have presented, then relate to what he did in public record and you will see the truth.
Otherwise you can go buy his other stuff. and get lost in your search. Read the story carefully.
Its all hidden in there.
He then laughts at the gullible masses who goes all ways but the real.
Read how the story, splits into "pure fictional" ways going into the ending.
What does that tell you?
Only the dedicated will stay true , most will deviate.
26 years of study and I tell you, Stay to the basics, or you will be lost.
He won't even teach his son, you think he will teach you outright?
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
Do you believe in magic?
Or the signs in the stars?
or the mystics?
or that God trades?
then you will be lost.
Plant your feets back on the ground.
then trade , with experience, you will understand the truth.
If you cannot understand, then ask the water fairy in the pond!
They must surely tell. LOL when you get to that part in the book.
Now I must have succeeded in insulting the whole publishing community.
Before you stone me, think!
I am a litle bit confused right now. Robert in the story used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles. He told that for him significant time are : 4 min, 24h, 1 year. Related to the Earth rounding the sun. I also think his oppinon was mainly trend is one which you have to be devoted and love it and he covered counter moves with hedgin if i understood correctly. His money purpose was also only for good of people and to save country and money didn't have any value without Marry. He also invented a microphone which recorded what big players are meant to do, beacuse they were jelaous of his success. That is from the story what i found out in investing section. Gann's success i really can't understand why numbers 286 and 25. I think he was dancing with the market (that supposed to be 20 min interval) and i also don't understand
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."
Was he buying (in way of main trend) when others were selling? I hope fti you can enlighten me a lil bit more or give more tips :P
You are right.
used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles.
in red is filler.
Now analyse how I trade, then relate.
Read the thread carefully AGAIN.
With market experience, you will understand.
Cycle=waves.
What is the true cycle?
So that means. What goes up that will go down one day and vice-verse. We need just a strong catalyst to change the trend. But why Gann used 20 minutes for interval?
Wrong.
Law of motion.
Law of vibrations.
20 mins is his average hold.
It is average not fixed.
Change can only come about, when change happens with effects of law of motion.
Remember, Sun Zi Bi Fa?
reread water motion.
The legend mastered the pyrimids mathematics, ie Vincci proportions ie fibo ie WW table.
20 mins is his average hold.
It is average not fixed.
Change can only come about, when change happens with effects of law of motion.
Remember, Sun Zi Bi Fa?
reread water motion.
The legend mastered the pyrimids mathematics, ie Vincci proportions ie fibo ie WW table.
google & read
"Legend Interviewed by W y c k o f f in 1909......
"Water seeks its level," continued Mr. ...
Can anyone post "water motion" and law of motion by Sun Zi Bi Fa? I was seeking through thread and couldn't find :S Was Sun Zi Bi Fa a korean soldier who fought for China :S
@mijamoto, you have not read this thread!.
Don't take short cut.
regards
For those following closely,
all the true studies got adulterated with 1 fallacy, "predictive".
Remove that and you have the truth of the reserchers.
even elliott, and others.
That's the thin red line.
I spent once whole weekend on reading this thread and i read it very fast. I will try to get book Art of War :P I have saved your lessons 1 and 2 and some principles of AOW but i didn't find water :S
AOW is free, its given.
read carefully, understand and practise.
You will not understand unless you read, comprehend and prsctise.
Trade demo, the market will teach you, many lessons.
Sun Zi
""Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions."
I hope this is what you wanted to hear :P
Yes, but what does it mean?
Think! deeep.
What is its ealationship to the law vibrations and the law of motion?
Whats the MO and MM to defeat it?
I can?t answer your question.
So far no one else has so FWIW, here are my thoughts.
Looking at your chart, the three bottoms look like slightly higher lows in what seems to be a continuing uptrend. The three tops formed almost a level line of resistance, which has been broken.
The uptrend looks like it is still in place on the weekly and monthly charts.
On the dailly a doji has formed, which suggests there could be a pullback, in the very short term anyway.
I have no time to dance tomorrow morning but I am considering placing a sell stop this evening to catch a possible 20-30 pips whilst I am out.
Not in keeping with the concept on this thread I know but the next best thing.
HS
Hi Hapasasa,
Don't play god.
Give it a miss, if you cannot babysit.
Never play god. The risk must be managed.
We just got out of a USD roller coaster ride, the trend is set.
The exposures must be danced.
Retrace it surely must.
Question is how deep?
what about the CBs?
How much foreign capital have you got?
what forces to expose, for how deep?
Be professional. If you were managing my book , and you did that, I would give you the walking cert , even if you made $$.
I have just come back. I wasn?t thinking about playing god as I am well aware of my limitations.
I shall follow your advice - what you said about the walking cert gave me a good jolt!
Thanks for your post - there will be many more opportunities,
regards,
HS
Hi Hapasasa,
I didn't wanted to sound mean,
but I hold very close to my pro ethics.
Complacency develops bad trading habits, if you can understand.
Once the bad habits entrench, then traders begin to lose their pro mindset.
It is not prudent to let your guard down.
Not with markets.
Believe me, you let yopur guard down and it will claw you.
If not this time, surely sometime.
Hope you understand.
regards
PS: In short, its unwise to be penny wise and pound foolish.
FTI i am sorry if i am pushy but you didn't reply. Did i get it right if i didn't can you give me more tips to solve this, what i see as very very important :P
Hi mijamoto,
What you have discribed is right.
Thats why I started this thread, to try and help some traders, esp new traders.
What you stated are just the educated view.
When in position, the ability to hold to correct mindset, distinguishes "the men from the boys."
My methodology and training sequense is given in the thread.
You have to read it slowly and allow set in, and internalise it, to work for you.
You have to think, and use it in real market situations to understand it.
To understand it you have to use it.
The markets will teach you,
If you don't learn, then it will teach you again and again.
Until you sync with it or fail.
Please read carefully and research what I have given.
There are limitations on a thread, that I cannot hand hold you.
By the way Sun Zi Bing Fa is the oldest military thesis in the world.
Please start from the begining again, and find the methodology that I have posted. slowwwwly.
If i take water as an example that would mean. Water moves with it's natural way and beacuse of gravitiy ( If we go in mountains current is greater than in plains due to gravitiy). On water's road are rocks and it break them all and make a chanell. In another occasion there can be very big rocks and is impossible to smash it so water go around and deep a another channel. Rivers life is also dependable on how money streams goes in and of rain. It's imposible to predict how deep will water be beacuse of all conditions (sun, rain,temperature ) but we can say due to our experience, when it rains surfaces goes up and if there is a drought for a long time surface will go down. And we can also claim in winter waters shape will be stable beacuse of ice and low temperatures(but there are exceptions) in autumn and spring it will be very volitle but in general higher and in summer it will fall.
What you are confirming is that the market has life,
It has a pulse ,and rythem, and that determines its behaviour.
Your job as a trader is to gauge its pulse and move accordingly to sync with,it.
You will mostly be able to do that if you listen and watch it, there is no otherway. The varables are enormous , and only the human mind, can be trained to "dance" its millions of colours and variations. Just like water the market will take the course of least resistance. The mind can capture that picture , only the timing may be slightly out paced. Thats why you have to have rescue options to align with the flow again.
If you are agaist flow, and remain to be sturborn cos of ego or any other reason, it will kill you. You have to "give" , and yield to the flow and pulse of the markets. Let her teach you her rythem, don't impose any of your thoughts on her.
You must also know how to take advantage of her, when you are in sync with her. And know when its safe to "force".
Therefore "the dance", learn AOW well.
As i said before few weeks ago i read whole thread in 2 days and i saved most important points of AOW and read it once a week. I started to trade your way and make all trades positive on demo account. But than came in me like a gambling person so i thaught at 1.49 EURO is overvalued and started to short on demo. I added always on position and i made catastrophic loss (Now is EUR/USD 1.52 ). I really respect all your effort and all your words started to change me as a person. Well i don't live in a rich family so life learned me a lot.I always says Einstain's state : Everything is relative nothing is constant. I hope you will continue with your teaching and i will reread thread slowly and deeply :P
Yes, that's your 1st lesson, ability to read when you are not mistimed, but on wrong trend. The only way to get out of wrong trend id not to turn, but to have the fortitude to take the punches,(bleeding), then use muscle to recover. If no muscle )$$) then finit.
Use the basics of trend defination to determine your trend bias always, never risk into nomans land.(unless with foreign capital, ie profits. always dance within the volatility scope of the market. You must NEVER be caught on the wrong side of a term trend. NEVER. If you ever get on its wrong side, Only money management can save you , and if you have not preplanned a reasue scenerio, then youare finished. If you planned your MM well then you have the chance to survive to fight another day.
Further inability to resync when against the wave , while implimentation of rescue will kill you there fore like lusan said " spiral within spirals".
regards
gotta go, another day,bye 4 now.
Oh my bicam mind just reminded me.
As you will learn from this thread, your rescue is a minimum geometric spiral, smallest which is a fibo,
You must also learn to wind a trend ride spiral correctly.
And if you cannot dance well, whatever your MM , it will still kill you.
So think carefully.
FTI ,
The New York Federal Reserve Exposition you site...Is Sugar-coating the stark reality.
The Global Monetary system is based on MORE PAPER and spend your way to PROSPERITY.
The wild Currency Gyrations are due to the fact that there is NOT enough GOLD to cover the SEA OF CONFETTI currencies that are sloshing around in the world.... So in order to (in Vain) try to preserve the PURCHASING POWER of any FIAT CURRENCY, MONEY (Which is NOT WEALTH) Runs in the direction of LESS TOTAL INFLATION (Interest Paid Minus Inflationary Depreciation)
Maybe if you will ponder on this questions ?
What is the market you are actually trading in?
Whos market is it? whos the owner?
Why does it move? What makes it move?
Have you heard of "open market operation"?
We are actually going into the Structure of the Markets.
If you have time, read this link carefully.
For Indept understanding read this book, I think may be out of print. try library
"Paper Money" by Adam Smith, dell publishing Co copyright by George J W Goodman.1981
@fxgreek,
The linked documents are an education into the Monetary structure of the existing market ecomomy and its transition from the Bretton wood "Gold Standard" economy and monetary system. This is practised in most of the major "free market economies".
It does not point to whether this Modus Operandi of management of wealth is correct nor the best. Just that, that is the structure. This structure embraces the use of goods and services as the base and a "free floated market" structure for international trade.
There however exist, since the WW 2, alternate systems as in pegged market structure and managed floated systems of ecomomies practised in certain countries. Which have a different basis. These have its own merits and are not freely tradable.
Alternatively, non acceptance of the system, or failure of the susytem, requires the settlement of international trade and debt by means of alienation or war.
Now we are getting to the bottom of the barrel and the essence of the situation....as to why IRAQ was attacked,
and WHY IRAN is the next target!
After all...It would be BAD FORM for America to be seen attacking it's allies directly at present (European Union) . SO attacking the proxies will do for now.
@fxgreek,
Much that I may like to entertain you on the issue.
It is beyond my scope as a trader, to deliberate on matters of government and politics.
I would be much obliged, if you would like to start another thread on your
subject of contention.
FTI
I am Here to LEARN to TRADE profitably!
NO for the entertainments!
And certaily... I am NOT LOOKING to BE entertained!
If I am reading things correctly.
This is a thread that TROWS COLD WATER on Technical analysis.
AND I am SAYING rightly SO!
If one is to make a correct TRADING DECISION! One MUST HAVE an ACCURATE GRASP of the FUNDAMENTALS!
Which Means BUY on an OVERSOLD condition WHILE in and UPTREND!
and SELL and OVERBOUGHT condition in a DOWNTREND!
Now regarding the USD and take your Pick of the marching currency pair.
WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE at this moment??
My Job is NOT TO BLOW my own Balloon!
BUT... To Blow HOLES in the HOT AIR balloons of others!
FxGreek
Hi fxgreek,
It is good that you have the goals to try to learn how to trade.
Truthfully, no, you are wrong in that the purpose of this thread is to throw cold water on technical analysis. Be aware that I have used technical analysis in the course of my career and in effects is a Technical Analyst by all counts. The reason of the thread, is to throw some water, to wake up the masses in the true skills of battle hardened, True Technical Market Analysis, not of those that sell writings carrying the fallacy.
I do not take issue that the market is driven by fundamental issues. Just that although the fundamental issues may play a major role in impluse driving of the markets, its impact is at best always localised to timing of media's dissemination of such information.
An example of which is the Iraq issue that you have brought up.
Truely, that has been discounted already, and that the markets are playing out to the lending ways (loans, specifically subprime areans) of the banking community and the monetary and fiscal policies of the new to come US administration.
You see, at the end of the day, the markets are bigger than most issues that can affect it. It moves on. So is required of the trader.
Don't be overly concerned with the ego balloons of others. This is the individual human shortcoming, we all have it. The only difference is the degree. It takes its tolls on the incumbant. Beware the balloon that you may be inflating, lest it may take its toll on your trading.
Sorry FTI for going away from the thread subject I just dont like people making statements that arent true. Yes it seems like an easy excuse to use, but there is a lot more involved in that situation then what was said earlier... Right back on track...lol
@totalpips
The issue of OIL will always remain in the backdrop of possible impulse driving of the markets. That is because it is the driving force of all human economic activties. Nevertheless, unless there is information of grave importance to market, then it slides into the background for other current events to take the wheel.
I can understand that, as you are engaged in the business, it becomes your focal point in your thoughts. The ability to be nimble to be aware of other fundamental issues to see the bigger picture, will stand you well, in the pursuit of market gyrations.
Thanks for your reply. Actually I didn't expect any answer. It's only my belief (or hint?) that TA is not gurrantee.
@Green_David,
Technical Analysis is a very powerful tool, in the hands of the trained mind.
It has sustained me thoughout my career in trading, with positive book month in and month out. Does that constitute a guanrantee?
The requirement, of course is that you have to internalise it with the right mindset MO, MM and capitalisation.
"In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral. Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater and intermediate cycle, or cycles within cycles. Like Ezekiel says: "Wheel within a wheel.? " pag 78.
Meaning:
1-the short time frame is contained within the long time frame.
2-PA is fractal-like: cycles contained withing cycles.
3-there is always a reversal waiting for happening.
My point?
Was he dancing?
16 trades a day seems like a short time frame and tight dance to me!
16 trades within a 8 hour day means ONE trade every 30 min.
Straight MM, right?
These are my silly thoughts so far.
Hi lusan,
Actually your thoght, doesn't seem so silly to me.
Yes, that was the question that came up in my quest.
Then I analysed his swing technique.
The picture seemed intact.
But when the squaring of time pirce was introduced, it seemed that his search had move off center. Nevertheless it was still within acceptable boundaries.
What threw the whole study off course was the introduction of Astro studies.
The fact that astro studies have always been a part of the ancient mathematics (and pyrimid mathematics) probaly lead him there, as he studied the maths intensely.
In reality, he compounded his good studies , with later additions that alduterated his initials. So was this intentional? Astrology sure is seller.
To anwer that question, we have to take into consideration that he move his core from trading to advisory. So came about the question,if he was trurly trader or paper seller?
Unfortunately he carried it all to his grave. Not even his son John nor other sibling had a clue of what he was doing.
What we have left, is his library.
The rights of which have been passing from hand to hand like a commodity.
If someone was to study my library in my absence, he'll probaaly believe that I used "feng sui" and other contraceptions.LOL.
By the way the answer is no, it all in the timing.
You say that his methods were not "predicitive" in the article you posted yesterday it says that he was able to "predict" months in advance what was going to happen. I wonder if you could clarify on this?
Hi Acs_112,
Please be informed that I took that off the net, instead of typing my own documents. It takes alot of research to uncover him as he was full of deception, as you will learn from his writings.
I said based on my study of his trading methodology, his MO seems non predictive as if it was then the trades he did does not make sense.
But he, in his later stages of success, claims that he used pridictive methodology , without giving details of the methodology.
Now if you took my trade blotter and ploted it against a chart. It would look that I had some crystal ball technology. When in fact I was pacing the market pulse.
In general, all traders like to be able to forecast the market and its performance.
Not so unlike football bet forcasting, few will be on the dot, some near and some out of line. So would you like to predict and stake, thats called gambling.
When he went trader to advisory seller, I would exprect that he would do the necessary to hold to clientele, while keeping his actual trading methodology to himself. The question is that for all the forecast that he made how many came on the dot.?
Of course , it would be tohis advantage to have us believe that all came in.
If such was the case , if you compared his trading blotter of the trades he made, why were there loss trades?
That's the smoking gun.
Anyway, I believe that he had good trading methodology and it was probably trend following.
regards
Another thing about studying him is that you have to sieve out the commentary of others about him (vested interest) and focus on him, then you have to sieve out what he did, and how he traded and behaved during his trades to come to understand his style. The best is to read his writings and peg it to his market actions.
Are you trading at the moment? Dollar looks to be on the move!
yes, i am in.
see how easy it is to be patient and pick the "ripe fruits".
However stay nimble for change, even when the going is easy.
Idid also traded the roller coaster, was good riding.
Enjoyed the tested range more, in that I was more attentive to the mkt.
Another candid thingy about timing.
See,
I was married and my 1st son and 2nd son was born on the same day and month but of different years, So in not so many ways, I am also cyclical. But please don't take it any further than that. LOL
So I have been celebrating my wedding adniversary and my children's birthday alway in one good party.LOL
regards
watchit acs. the markets listening to u.
For those still pondering about the 3 kingdoms.( 5 mins)
see now the romance is in tendem.
remember how they danced to aifferent tunes when mkt was in flux.
Thats how you can tell if you are on the correct surf and what type of market cycles you're on.
The direction looked set, and just as your comments come about being nimble for change just that happend!
This is why i do have a problem looking at the 5 min charts. The change happens to quckly. How to handle something like this? Or is the answer in MM and Timing?
I am bearish the $$ so the bearish moved that was occuring was positive to me, but the change was rapid! On such a short timescale i was unable to capitilze on a move like that, as i was looking for more from it.
"the romance is in tendem" I can see exactly what you mean they are moving in great harmory at the moment!
@acs
The only way you can capitalise on that would be to be ready for it, be prepared. The wagons 's getting loaded.It was a good opportunity to regroup your exposures for a re leg of positions.Its opportunity.
If you missed it then reaccess your exposure now, she's have to spread as the rubberband was swift, there's gonna be several test for support. We just don't know where, but if your positions are still at the front you just have to wait for her to spread out well. Notice how the cable is leading herlegs spreading, when that stops then its time.
regards
PS:that's why you have to babysit it. Once you miss it then thats it.
that's the problem. If it gives you 2nd chance take it, if it gives you 3rd chance, then its likely a trap. If it turns out that its not a trap at 3 then the 4th is definately a trap.
Hi ALL,
I am so sorry for not being around, as I am still in the midst of an important task. So in effects I am undisposed for the mom. But as this link was posted in the thread, and intresting enough that, I have such a need to make a respond of the article that, this is required.
Since there are 3 cases sighted , I will respond on a case to case basis, as my leisure permits.
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxesis
Not trying to post any competitors site but this post is a lesson everyone should learn, hopefully from others mistakes and not your own..... the difference between wisdom and knowledge.
I am not trying to start an argument but trading with the assumption that the market will always return to an average, can be costly.........especially if the market runs away from you, by the time the thrust finishes the average might be well past the available margin if we are overleveraged.
If we enter wrong and the market goes against us, and we can see a context or pattern to the market that allows us to average in then by all means try an salvage the position, but there must come a time when we have to cut and run and live to fight another day.
"individual traders possess the same weaknesses and character flaws that allowed these traders to lose this much money speculating for Institutions. How do I know it’s a much more common happening than the press and officials would have you believe?"
As a matter of fact what was quoted is correct. In a world where market risk is managed daily, this is likely to happen every time any trader attempts market risk. I note that the author may be a peer in teir 1 as his email suggest,(swiss banks corp is teir 1) but there seems that there is a stong possibility that this is just "story" due to many "clues" within the article.
With this recent huge loss in the Wheat markets by a rather small player, it should be obvious to all of us that this is a much more common occurrence than we think. Yet many analysts have weighed in with their opinion that this type of event is unusual, that this is an isolated case. While it’s true the size of the loss associated with this event makes it a bit unusual, what this trader did was hardly unusual and you might be surprised when I say that many individual traders possess the same weaknesses and character flaws that allowed these traders to lose this much money speculating for Institutions. How do I know it’s a much more common happening than the press and officials would have you believe? Read on and I’ll tell you about three such events that happened while I was managing professional traders at US Institutions [Note there were many more such incidents I witnessed over the years at the Institutions I worked at and that the names and circumstances given here were changed enough in the telling that no one and no Institution could be recognized, nor could their reputation be damaged].
Karl was a well known currency trader. I had made many cash currency trades with him over the phone before we were both working at the same US bank. I’ll say one thing about Karl: He could make money faster than any trader I have ever known, before or since. And he loved to trade. In the early 1980’s, before cell phones were invented, Karl had a two-line phone installed in each of his bathrooms at home, so he wouldn’t miss a call from a trader around the world if he was in the bathroom making a trade on the first phone line! Karl was a trading junkie, pure and simple. He lived to trade.
I’ll say one thing about Karl: He could make money faster than any trader I have ever known, before or since. And he loved to trade. In the early 1980’s, before cell phones were invented, Karl had a two-line phone installed in each of his bathrooms at home, so he wouldn’t miss a call from a trader around the world if he was in the bathroom making a trade on the first phone line! Karl was a trading junkie, pure and simple. He lived to trade."
Karl as was suggested seems to be a pro in detail of the analysis of his behaviour and commitment to his job as was described in the article. Baring his limits ethicate.
"Our manager was away from the trading room one Monday morning, visiting the Head Office for the entire week. There was no need to name anyone to take his place while he was gone: Though our manager was the nicest guy in the world, he gave us all strict intraday stop-loss limits and overnight position and stop-loss limits and made it clear that if they were ever violated, we would be fired with no questions asked. He had a black binder at the end of trading desk and you were expected to write down each day’s profit or loss and your overnight position before you left for the day. And of course, then you had to sign your name next to what you had written."
the black binder system totally put the trading room risk reporting protocol to shame. It cannot happen.
The reason is that the risk and book PL reporting resposibility is the job of the settlements dept with fully reconcilation respondsibility with the compliance managers. Therefore it cannot be acceptable to me that such burden was placed in the confines of a report book on the TMs table in his absence. Seems that the manager must have no risk protocol.
"The markets that day were completely crazy. Several hours into the trading day, one of the marketers motioned for me to come over to speak with her. I assumed she had a client on the line that needed advice or wanted to speak to me personally. Instead, with a hushed voice she told me to go back to my desk, wait a few minutes, and then get up and walk into our manager’s office, close the door behind me and call him at the Head Office. When she recognized the look of puzzlement on my face, she told me quietly not to tell anyone what I was doing.
When my manager answered the phone, he got right to the point: He asked me if I had any idea what Karl’s position size was at the moment. Karl sat across from me but the desk was noisy enough that unless you made an effort to ask someone what they were doing in the market, it wasn’t particularly easy to know—especially if you were busy trading your own position. I told my manager that I honestly had no idea what Karl’s position was. Then he asked if Karl was having a good or bad day. Glancing out the window, I could see that Karl was hunched over the desk, smoking his fiftieth or sixtieth cigarette for the morning, with a phone stuck to his ear. This was how Karl looked throughout the trading day. Again, I told him I really didn’t know.
My manager took a deep long breath then, paused, and then told me that he had just gotten a call from one of Karl’s cash currency brokers. The broker told my manager that by his estimation, Karl was down several million dollars and was probably carrying a position that was well over ten times his intraday limit. At that point in my career, my intraday loss limit was $100,000 and I assumed Karl’s limit was similar in size. My intraday position limit was US$20 million dollars and again, I assumed Karl had a similar position limit. If what this broker was telling the truth, Karl was well over his position and loss limits. "
Although office politics must exixt in all dealing rooms. It becomes insubordinative when another dealer reports to his boss on the situation of another dealer's blotter's health, without detailed knowledge of the true state. Where are the Seniors?
And in all respects I take personal displeasure that this action is classified as sabotage with intent. Further the followup of the story, confirms this "stab in the back" plot.
I asked my manager what he wanted me to do about it. And when he answered, I wasn’t wild about the idea. He told me to walk out to the trading room, go over to where Karl was sitting smoking his cigarette and quietly tell Karl I had just gotten a call from home and needed to speak to him privately out in the hall. Then I was to do my best to find out what Karl’s real position was and what his current P&L was. And if he was in as deep a hole as the call from the broker had suggested, I was to find a way to get Karl to take a walk to clear his head and while Karl was out of the room, I was to call my manager back with what I had found out.
I hung up the phone and took my own deep breath and then slowly walked over to where Karl continued to hunch over the trading desk, chain smoking his cigarettes. As soon as Karl noticed I was standing along side him, he mumbled into the phone that he had to go and then gave me a weak smile and asked, ‘What’s up, Tim?’
Going along with my manager’s plan, I softly told Karl that I had just gotten a call from my home and I needed to ask his advice out in the hallway. Karl glanced at his quote screen, grabbed his packet of cigarettes and his lighter and said, ‘Sure, let’s go,’ and then he led the way out of the trading room into the hallway. Once the trading room door closed, he asked me if everything was alright at home. I paused for a second and then told him that I had just gotten a call from our manager and that he was concerned about the size of Karl’s position and the mounting losses."
And the back stabbing plot thickens.
I’ll give Karl credit: I feared he would become irrational and perhaps even get angry enough to become violent, since someone had obviously ‘ratted him out’. Instead, I watched as all the energy drained out of his body. He closed his eyes and murmured, ‘I can’t lose this much money. It’s too damned much money! I know it will come back. I just need the market to come back.’ His eyes opened then and he asked what I was going to do about his position. I told him the truth: Our manager hadn’t told me to do anything about his position. I didn’t mention he had told me to call him as soon as I knew how large the position was and how bad the loss was. When Karl heard this, he repeated, ‘Tim, I can’t lose this much money. It’s too damned much money! I know it will come back. I just need the market to come back.’
I felt bad for Karl. He was completely lost at this point. His sole focus was that the market was now trading at irrational levels and that if he was just patient, the market would return to rational levels and everything would be alright. He’d completely forgotten that his position greatly exceeded his limits and that his trading loss dwarfed what he was allowed to lose in several weeks, let alone a single day. How was I going to help him? What could I do to help my manager and the bank I traded for?
While Karl leaned back against the wall, an idea came to me: I told Karl to take a walk downstairs to get some more cigarettes. I told him I’d watch his position for him. I told him to quit worrying—the markets always go where they’re supposed to go, right? He apparently took that to mean that I agreed with him, that the markets would return to his entry price if he only just waited it out. He said, ‘That’s a good idea. I’m almost out of cigarettes anyway. You watch my position and I’ll be back in a few minutes. It’ll come back. Thanks, Tim;’ then he patted me on the shoulder and walked down the hallway to the elevators.
Once I saw him get in an elevator, I went to Karl’s desk, checked his position size and did a quick calculation to get an idea of the size of his current loss. Then I went back into my manager’s office and called him back. I told him the news was worse than he had feared—The position was more than twice what the broker had told him and the loss was nearly three times as large. In less than two hours of trading, Karl had lost more than all the traders in our trading room normally make in three months of trading!
When Karl made the statement, "I can’t lose this much money"
he is clearly "dead in the waters" and therefore a bail out should already be in position to protect the bank's exposures, yesterday.
What stopped Karl from calling his TM to report the situation?
Was the TM truely ignorant of Karl's exposure?
Again,Where was the team of seniors?
Why were they not essembled to overlook the exposure?
Alternatively, the position could be quickly be transfered to HQ , where adhock facilities would be setup to monitor to rescue book?
And the plot thickens.
Now my manager gave me explicit directions: Go to Karl’s desk and close out his position. When Karl got back from buying cigarettes, I was to ask him to come into our manager’s office and call him at the Home Office. And while he was in the office talking with our manager, I was to double check that I had completely liquidated his positions and then check out all his trades with his brokers. Once that was done, I was to call each of them and tell them they were not to accept any further trades from Karl until they heard personally from my manager.
When Karl got back from buying cigarettes, he immediately asked me if the market had ‘come back to its senses’. I told him that the position was doing better now and then told him our manager wanted him to call him from his office. Karl didn’t flinch. He asked me to watch his position while he made the call and right before he entered the office to make the call, he said, ‘I’ll bet it comes all the way back before I get off the phone, Tim. Give me a shout if I get in the black while I’m on the phone in here, huh?
Why would a TM instruct a junior trader to neutralise the exposure?
Why would a TM neutralise the danger by boker price. exposing himself to broker to inform the world of the pridicament of the room?
Why, Isn't HQ trading?
To this day, I don’t know what my manager told Karl over the phone that day. He spent about 30 minutes in that office, then walked over to his trading desk, put his suit coat on, thanked me for watching his position and then walked out of the trading room. Then to my utter surprise, he walked back into the trading room a few moments later and opened the black binder and filled it out. Then he left for the day.
When I was done trading for the day, I, too, went over to fill out the black binder. I didn’t have an overnight position, so I put zero down in that column. I’d made about $30,000 that day trading, so I wrote that down in the correct column. And then out of curiosity, I read what Karl had written: He put down that he had lost $90,000 for the day [which was a fraction of what he had actually lost but that amount was within his allowable loss limit for any trading day] and he put down that he was carrying no overnight position. Our manager had apparently told him that someone had closed out his position. I shook my head in puzzlement, wondering why Karl would write down such a small loss in the black binder. Why write anything if you weren’t willing to write the truth, I wondered to myself.
I got a bigger shock the next day: Karl came in the next morning with a newspaper under his arm and a fresh carton of cigarettes in his hand. He went over to his trading desk as if nothing had happened, sat down, lit a cigarette and began reading the newspaper. He spent the morning reading his newspaper, smoking and making a few leisurely phone calls. Just after noon, he got up, walked over to my side of the desk and told me he was heading out a bit early. Then he went to the black binder and filled it out before leaving.
I had traded that day and it had been a fairly quiet day. I’d made about $20,000, so when I was done for the day, I went to the black binder and opened it and began filling it out. After I filled in my numbers, I glanced quickly at Karl’s: He hadn’t written a thing down under today’s date. Instead, he had erased yesterday’s loss number and changed it from $90,000 to $122,000. It didn’t make sense to me, but none of it made sense to me. Why had he come in today and why would he change his P&L number from yesterday?
My manager was out the entire week and each day for the rest of the week, Karl came in on time, sat and read his newspaper and when he decided to leave for the day, he went to the black binder and revised the first day’s loss to a more negative number. And then he left for the day. By the end of the week, he had revised that number to a loss of just over $300,000. That was still a fraction of the actual loss. It was as if he could not stand to write the real loss down, could not stand to admit that he had lost the money.
What happened to Karl? He didn’t get fired, actually. He was transferred the next week to the Head Office, where they could ‘watch over him more closely.’ He did leave the bank after the end of the year to take a job as an energy trader, so perhaps he had a term contract that ran out at the end of the year.
From the run of events presented, i can only conclude that Karl was managing the TMs position in his absence. The TM had already made it clear that limits violation is cause for walking cert, so there is no possibility that he could shield Karl on the violation, unless.
further, I can only see a TM leaving a hugh exposure for a junior to manage.
Now what does that tell me?
In all I am thankful to the author for the story.
For traders, I advise to be aware of the risk capacity benchmarked to past personal performance. Taking on market risk in excess of the "ability" to stomach it, can put the mind in a very dark place. It is difficult to set mindset tuned correct unless the "ability" has been properly educated and by participation in the market under fire. Simulation can help set the stage, but HANDS ON experience is necessary to verify that the simulation is realistic.
Although this story is a perspective to what can happen. Make no mistake that this is happening in markets daily, mostly to new traders. Why do you think the attrition rate for traders in general is so high.
So, although I do question the accuracy of the story, there is a moral behind it that I cannot dispute. And that to be profitable as a trader, YOU, and your training and applitute does take a paramount seat in your ability to excel.
I will get to the other two stories , when able.
Trade carefully.
Hi Leighsww, hope your trading is great.
Whip Babefx , if you must, but leave no scars, please.LOL
I have read this thread, and I use position averaging in my trading, although I view the battleground or the concept of rescuing differently than what has been discussed. But I would warn anyone of taking the attitude that the market cannot throw you a curve ball that you can not pound out of the park.
Of the three stories, the first one Karl, troubles me most. He was a veteran trader the other two were relativity new. Yes we are lacking many of the facts as to what actually happened, but I’d guess that Karl traded day in day out making money and comfortable in his technique and strategy until one day he found himself on the wrong side of the market and it continued to run against him. At first it seemed manageable, then a heavy loss, and suddenly the realization that the loss was outside his limits and then devastating job ending, life changing losses. At this time he was paralyzed in thought, the only light visible at the end of the tunnel and the only way out of his predicament was to hold as the market would eventually right itself.
This is the problem that I see with the approach that one will never take a loss unless your cash reserves are limitless.
Hence Karl, he was a successful trader, then one day the market threw him that curve ball and he was unable to recover. Given enough time the market will eventually throw us that curve ball, where the market will not quickly give us a correction to load up and make it back to Breakeven. To what level do we keep adding exponentially? At what percentage of our account to we put at risk 20, 30, 40% What happens when we hit that level and the market keeps dropping, but we know that it will turn around on the next level so we add one more round………………………………
I’m not trying to take away from this thread, there are many great ideas shared here. it just seems to me that the mindset that seems to be developing is one that has no fear of the markets, and in my humble opinion it is a dangerous one.
Regards,
@auxesis
Thank you for your highlighting,of the dangers, and the sharing of your experience.
Please try not to mistaken , fear of market, from the respect that a trader must accord the market.
I have seen and managed most curve balls that the market has thrown my way, inmy lifetime. Make no mistake that it can get hairy, at times.
Therefore it behoves the traders to be nimble and manage them best they can always. But in essence, there is less to fear from market gyration than from trader ignorance or egor.
I hope that a true understanding of the methdology here will be of value to your continuing market education.
fti i am intersted if you can explain and tell more facts about 3 kingdoms (if there are any) and what's your oppinion about ECN level 2?
regrads
Hi mijamoto,
In essence is a danceing with 3 markets simulteneously. (refer to my chart posting). you will be looking at 9 charts simulteneously.
ie cable& Eur( the colonial masters), USD (the WW2 victor) with the rest of the lump (the free third world trading partners).
This could be changing a little as the "pegged" countries are coming on stream.
To be able to dance this , you must master the ability to dance single girl first.
Its use is very useful to time the other girls. But if you have problem dancing one girl, then dancing 3 can be....
Moreover your book have to be quite large to do it.
Its sort of trading, with arbitrage as the foundation for the trade.ie crosses
When tearing occurs , its a handful to manage.
When in sync, it directs the trend in absolute.
I cannot advise about ECN2 as this is retail broking and I am here to learn about them myself (as I am from spot interbank tier1). even ECN as a viable trade vehicle is still being investigated.
I would be happy if others here , can direct to links in FF for indept understanding of this new trading vehicle (ECNs). I have a believe that this is not even teir 3 interbank. Thanks for asking anyways.
regards
PS: another thingy which I would like to stress again, is that just reading and flowing along the thread to rush here doesn't do justice in the study , as I am already going too fast.
Beaware that at evey stage of the study, there will be a vacuum of infomation, of which youmust pause , think and find the answers to the traning. If you move on without the thinking and using to discover the info for yourself. Then you accumulate that lack and then acutually gain nothing from the reading.
I believe many here that have gone thru the process will be happy to help you along with the helping ofthe answers to the questions that you wuoldn't know to ask about. So slow down and move at your own pace, as most of that need be taught is already given, and I am just trying to revisit that which may have been missed.
THX for your explaniation. How do you find today's retracment in major 3. I see it as a killing ducks and a new opportunity for going long :P
regrads and enjoy your time
In all essence, the feds interest rate policy have "showed hand" of the likely USD devaluation for the long run. Whats important is how it would pane out. In this markets, the whole world knows what to do, so the ability to stay on track becomes extremely difficult, as the volatility would increase on both the bull and bear side of the USD. Positioning is of no real consiquense to profits, as it would be difficult to sit on large exposures.
The most prudent trading would be to dance the volatility with smaller exposures and when positions snowballs on tight range to defuse that snowballing. Allowing a slow build up of the USD selling, allowing for this only when the USD selling can be protected with foreign capital that you capture from the markets as you babysit it. Do not be suprised that buying USD may prove the alterbnatively better short trade exposure while the USD selling be slowly built up. For more advance traders , the use of OTC USD options , may prove to be a better longer term strategy, while the short is traded. This is provided that you have the facalty to calulate the volatility money that is factored into the option cost. This is so that you do not pay too much premium for the volatility money. As the option is a wasting asset , toomuch premuim for volatility , will erode whatever gains you can get from the price gyration.
The pros would be writing the options, whenthe volatility money is high and manage the intraday gyrations,trying to get free time decay as well. but if you are not pro nor have absolute market access, do not go there.
Hi, fti! I'm still not clear about how to use the law of motion and a law of vibrations in trading. I'm sorry if the question is so obvious.
Regards
Alex
Hi Alex
Understand the general influence of these laws will help your timing.
read these and see if you can understand, indepth understanding is not required.
Understanding of its influence is the foundation.
fti , I've been consumed with personal issues and I'm back reading what I missed.
thankyou for being the light in the way we can go, I don't believe we could pay for an education like this, thanks for your direction, understanding and hope that you give.
Hi lilpip,
Thanks for your kind words.
If you missed "tunnel" try and get it from your friends here.privately
For those short of usd, be aware of a key reversal in the charts,
All 3 kingdoms, Manipulation of market is in progress, possibly to tame oil prices.so be nimble.
I thought it was rather clever that the FED manipulated the market by not having to decrease rates but instead used another "tool" in their tool box.
Hi piphitman,
Agreed, do remember that they are pros, so they do have much arsenals up their sleeves. It behoves us to be nimble to avoid their snares. It is impossible to pace them, but we can time ourselves from traps. Paying for exit early says alot from the consequences for paying thru the ego. It is only prudent to take lesser profits whenthe ground changes, then to be stubborn and pay the ultimate fare.
For those that may be confused, lets say that although the trend is intact, there will be realignments necessary, because of undue force. It is fool hardy to fight the obsticle. The trick is to use the momentum generated to ones advantage while it meanders.
When I feel that way, which is often then the order of the day is take the time to digest what your taking in, reread and read slower.
cheers
Thanks lilpip for commenting on that.
but really it is not necessary,
Some "masters" create for themselves unnecessary pressure due to .....
Like what my dad said when he was around.
"If we are constipated, don't blame that the ground is hard"
Like most things in live, it will baffle them until the awakening.
Nevertheless it was nice of you to try to help him.
I'm in the process of getting prepared for the dance and I could use some constructive criticism.
To keep it simple I'm focusing on one pair so I can come to know its pulse, the gbpusd.
It seems to have a pretty good ave. daily range, my goal is to take a portion out of that range each day, and its doesn't seem to be all over the place the more I get to know it. So if I'm dancing with the trend we should have a good session.
To figure out the trend I believe I should look at the weekly for the overall trend, the daily to try to figure out if its a trending,ranging or rotating back as it did yesterday and today. From there I suppose we focus on what? 15 min. then 5 then 1 minute? Whats working best with what were trying to do?
Also, the spirals seem to be around 32, 60, 110 - 120 as it cycles throughout the day, any thoughts? Anybody trading this pair? What seems to work?
Any characteristics that we should be aware of?
thanks
Hi lilpip,
I don't normally comment about traders.
But since you are asking.
I get a funny feeling that you didn't read the thread carefully.
I really don't know , where you got the weekly trend thingy from, definately not from here.
Whats most worrysome is your fixation with spiral parameters on cyclicals probably on price, and that certainly is far far away from the truth.
Do try to read again, if you are truely learning.
And try to untrain your old-frame of mindset.
Like i have said numerous times, read slowly and pause to think then demo the market if you must to get the reality of what was presented.
I most certainly hope that you do not believe what you described is what is being presented by me.
I was thinking about that "just kill it" number too??? it seems that one would have to have proper MM and rescue possibility in ones plan of attack to account for, and to possibly withstand, (for example) todays USD/JPY blast of 85 pips in 5 short minutes (a 155 pip blast on the pair I trade GBP/JPY), followed by a 22 pip retrace then another blast upwards again for another 50 pips. Being involved in a trade during such a volatile spike makes one wonder when/where???? to pull the plug.....
It's imagining and planning in advance for these types of scenarios that brings up the ability to be "nimble" in one's attack for any and all contingencies. One does not want to be blindsided on one's flank for a mortal blow.
Hi ALL,
In reality, if you have been following the methodology closely,
is that when you are in attack mode, you have foreign capital cushion before you "press"
for attack, so you are prepared for minimal damage if flanked. but most impotantly,your nimbleness is in the attack. As in yesterdays scenario, there was good windfall already.
If you can remember , my hand hold session before, you would realise that as this windfall comesin the money, the possitions are wounded down. this gives you muscle for rewinding for another attack on the next wave. this action also prepares one for the eventualities as we witness yesterday. where we met the owner of the market coming out in protest. The cost to the trader would only be opportunity cost in such instances.
Therefore to be able to carry out such, the mindset must be, to allow for lost opportunity cost on every attack.
Althought when the protest was in progress, most traders will not see CB face, but it will be announced within the (normally) 30 min time lag. Therefore, the only pain to recind is the small spiral, which can be easily reversed. That's why when the attack is in progress , we are known as "big guns". The rule of thumb is never to allow the "big guns" to stay on the field, after its purpose has been achieved.
Again as in yesterdays scenario, the smaller exposure may be trapped in battle ground, but that can be managed to reverse the positions "on wind". If I was in the dealing room , I would probably have seen CB in market much earlier, because they check the market many times before they act. Some tier 1 are actually acting on their behalf.
In unnormal situation of unseen hand at work, the same scenario is still applicable, but only that there maybe slight attrition to P&L due to reactive time scope. Nevertheless, they will never find the trader in attack mode and trapped in "dead ground" due to it never is in there long enough for targeting. At worst case , only part of the attck may be trapped.That's why the attack's nimbleness is critical for success and babysiting is necessary.
For normal traders, it would be highly likely that they would be caught log stock and barrel, while they where pushing for the market run. The deadly possibility is where they had actually added the bulk to press the run.This is especially so for term position trading. Or for break out traders. The difference is the greed factor.
So in reality there is no "just kill it" requirement. But if any comfort, a 3X of normal daily P&L range , would already signal, "dead in water" possibilities. From there the trader has to decided if the "cannon" (rescue of last resort) may be used, but that would depend on how much accumulated foreign capital is available for such an endevour.
Once you are experienced in this MO, you are mostly doing ants work regularly, and any attrition to P&L would be within the confines of your accumulated winnings. For banks that is limited to the annual quarter's P&L. This is also the reson why , when a disaster scenario is reported , as in the case of socgen, they can still report that principal is safe.
It would be great if individual traders can adopt this. But this is unlikely as , the modus operandi sowed in the minds of most trader is to profit in access of 3 to 4X cap ROI on outlay. So exposing them to castratopic runs on cap. Not withstanding those that want to make millions from pittance. Of course high gearing accelerates their demise.
Maybe this may help some come to their senses, that to be truely profitable , it must be over time ( like ants work), never depending on sudden winfalls. If of any value , to be on the watch out for and to reverse sudden misfortunes. [MINDSET]
regards
PS: Was checking brokers, heard recently how one trader made like 15mio from market, heard he was down close to 50+mio at one time, guess his exposure and bank borrowings? Lets see when he goes chapter11. This stories are circulating enticing traders to commit "harakiri" in markets, but who am I to question his style. and some brokers are selling that.Well greed hasno limits.
a question for you, for example; If I am in dance mode and I have 1 troop in for skirmish, then I place another 2 troops in for further attack, then I place another 3 troops in a little later for a press of attack. What you are saying is that the last 3 troop unit is the one that must be taken out as soon as it's job is completed and not be left to linger on the battlefield for such damaging effects of CB intervention or other Major player actions.
If I have 3 positions open and a news spike or other major player intervention quickly turns the market the other way should I be placing a trailing stop on that last 3 troop unit as it goes along so it will not get caught up in a slippage nightmare?
In MT4 it could feasibly take a few deadly precious pip moments to close out three positions when the market is changing very rapidly. The time it would take to open up the trade and close it out and then move on to the next one and do the same thing, then each succesive one could be very costly. For now I guess I would just manually already have the 3 troop trade window open just waiting for a simple click to close the trade if needed and then deal with the other two positions as quickly as I could attend to them.
Hi piphitman,
As combination of spiral 1,1,3 would be a better combination as your attck would be stronger. howerever 112 gives you the 1123 range of capabilities.
when attack is over, the winding down should leave normally only base.
ie scout. On second wave when you do a 113 again, the effective is actually on 2 base as one was left over, 2,1,3 then on wave 3 the base becomes as large as the attack, effectively 3,1,3 as 2 was left over. if the short term trend ride was succesful the base should be winded to the original of 1.
You can work in multiples of the base as per capitalisation.
I found this most effective.
In terms of using MT4, I found that their accounting of positions is unorthodox, and much prefer , FIFO, or netting off , as it its the interbank accounting standard.
You may like to refer this at merlins thread about "hedging" in the Trading Room. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=68598
Its really non professional , and tedious at best.
Having said that it is your choice to determine which platform is available for your trading. Remember that time constrain in position managing is not confine to pip slippage only . In combination with the price spreads and re-quotes, your slippage is actually very large in relations to leg ranges.
In my opinion , too much to give to broker.
fti,
I agree I need to read this thread over again, actually a couple times over.
As you might recall I'm new at this and didn't know anything and probably still don't but at least you got me thinking about matters.
So I'm trying to figure out the overall trend so I thought it would best to begin with the weekly trying to understand which way the day might be going so I'm on the right side of the road.
As far as the spiral I was trying to prepare myself for a rescue from watching this pair it seemed that those 3 seemed to be areas where price may rotate back. Maybe I'm trying to hard to see characteristics or patterns.
thanks for keeping me going in the right direction.
Hi lilpip,
Not to worry, go slow, it will come to you.
The thingy about weekly reads , is actuality it tell you nothing , as the trade time scope will be going into years of market participnation, so really looking there, give the trader nothing.
Already if you traded a 5 min sequence, your exposure could be into days of babysitting, and that is if you got the stamina to do that.
The daily reference helps you if you happen to carry overnights while riding smooth trends, and these comes by only occassionally. Probably less than 5 or so in a year.
Ifyou are on rescues , try to limit to daylight.
Be absolutely careful when you think fibo in price scales. Price movements move in impulse wave thrust and equilibrium setting. So it is linear and 2 dimensional. position and P&L snowballing can be build on 3 dimensional models due to its geometrical undertones. I understand that there are a lot of disillusional material floating in markets on 3 dimensional price predictive models. Be clear that that is pure rubbish and is used as marketing BS. fibo leveling can be used to extend the position modelling to allow for illiquid markets,to stretch, but as a rule of thumb, I discourage traders from trading illiquid markets. manipulation is likely to be rampant in those.
regards
PS: also note that from trade clearing data 80% of all forex transactions are accredited to the 4 majors. Used to be the USD/DMK was most liquid, Now it is the EUR/USD. followed by USD/YEN, then Cable and CHF. The reson why london is lsrgest fx center is due to location of interlocking time zones. In interbank , all the other pairs are considered exotics.
Hi lilpip,
Not to worry, go slow, it will come to you.
The thingy about weekly reads , is actuality it tell you nothing , as the trade time scope will be going into years of market participnation, so really looking there, give the trader nothing.
Already if you traded a 5 min sequence, your exposure could be into days of babysitting, and that is if you got the stamina to do that.
The daily reference helps you if you happen to carry overnights while riding smooth trends, and these comes by only occassionally. Probably less than 5 or so in a year.
Ifyou are on rescues , try to limit to daylight.
Be absolutely careful when you think fibo in price scales. Price movements move in impulse wave thrust and equilibrium setting. So it is linear and 2 dimensional. position and P&L snowballing can be build on 3 dimensional models due to its geometrical undertones. I understand that there are a lot of disillusional material floating in markets on 3 dimensional price predictive models. Be clear that that is pure rubbish and is used as marketing BS. fibo leveling can be used to extend the position modelling to allow for illiquid markets,to stretch, but as a rule of thumb, I discourage traders from trading illiquid markets. manipulation is likely to be rampant in those.
regards
PS: also note that from trade clearing data 80% of all forex transactions are accredited to the 4 majors. Used to be the USD/DMK was most liquid, Now it is the EUR/USD. followed by USD/YEN, then Cable and CHF. The reson why london is lsrgest fx center is due to location of interlocking time zones. In interbank , all the other pairs are considered exotics.
Another thing is that, if you were away from the thread for some time. There are some files that were given and they are not on thread. You may like to ask others here, privately for them.
i did a demo trade a while ago following your reccomended 113 attack sequence using the 10min charts.
Marked below are the entries i took at the close of each bar. Say once price reached its target (do you even use targets?), i'd liquidate and leave the 'scout' in. As of now, i'm preparing to make a second wave at it, which will eventually make my skew to a 213 right?
a few qns, pardon my naivety
What combination would you reccomend when i am trying to do a rescue for 113(5troops), 213(6troops) and 313(7troops) combo?
Can the 113 sequence be used as a skew for doing a rescue too, i am asking coz i saw lusan's journal and his skew sorta puzzled me?
attack with 1, 2, 3
rescue with 3, 9 , 20
does this mean that if i have
- 1 troop to rescue I will send 3?
- 2 troop to rescue I will send 9?
- 3 troop to rescue I will send 20?
or
- 1 troop to rescue I will send 3?
- 3 troop to rescue I will send 9?
- 6 troop to rescue I will send 20?
regards
jest
Hi jest081,
Interesting,
1. I am sorry to say that I would not be as sharp as you. In the sense of the ability to pick tops.
2. That you are on an extended compressed time frame that there will be little decision making reads.
since this was the time frame you chosed then I will try to explain it in sync.
3.Before we go on, I would like to enquire with you if you know the daily trend, and at what zone of possibly sequences that may occur?
My take on the daily trend is bullish EUR with a strong key reversal influence.
Base on your short chart (10min) if I was to attempt this trades, I would probably be short E/U at point marked 1.
Since we are in a range sequence, I an afraid that, that would be my only possition for up to where your chart stopped. This is because we are in a range bound scenario.
There is no attack sequence possibility until more info comes on stream.
I would like to further enquire your reasons for your position 2 where you sold another position, to rescue your scout. Based on the position of the scout, there seemed no rescue necessary, as it was never out of money.
The 3rd position further is at question based on that again there presented no such necessity.
I think you must have confused that you must always impliment rescue, even if the position was not emcumbered. Please reanalyse your position.
Further do not be confused that the attack sequence and the rescue sequence both take on the geometric basis. The purpose of rescue MO is to recover the scout , when encumbbered, therefore the minimum reponse is at least a fibo progression sequence.
The attack sequence is for press therefore should at least be a reverst fibo, to protect from possible retracement against possition.
Another point is that when a rescue gets into trouble, the next "spiral within a spiral" possibility would insist that the next rescue sequence , if attempted on would have to take the form of size of minimum next in order from the exposed base.
ie a martingale of base.
example.
if 1 scout was in trouble, u sent in 1 to rescue then 3 to rescue if unsuccessful, if more rescue was required then the next squad would be ?
ten,, did you get it right?
based on this progression what would be the next required rescue?
thirty, did you get this right?
what's next, ninety.... see now.
lets say you use a 1,2,3
then requried rescue is 18, 50, 150,
i best not show you level 3....
if you evaluate your rescue risk snowball....
now do a rough guesstimate for every pip run against you,it will cost your book?
By the 2 nd level at least a quarter of book is at risk.
So try not to get yourself into this often, for the sake of sanity, unless you are a bank.
The focus should however be on attack sequence, where you have foreign capital protection to a certain extend.
Pressing should however be initiated only once trend is entrenched, normally on wave 2 onwards.
and should be on reverse fibo summation up to limit, if foreign capital reserves allow.
Of course when you first set out, there is little foreign reserves to lean on, so then you must be very conservative, until you have the nesting.
As sitoca rightly pointed out, the MM is to hold to proper sizing, the profits comes from dancing correctly. Dance badly, and the most the MM can do for you is to minimise drawdown at very high risk of ruin. Maybe you would like to show if there was any other way?
And MM management on profitaking should be on LIFO as Lusan suggested.
As i have mentioned to Lusan, his time stretch is very on the market.
But i can understand that his market time exposure is short for him.
So long as he stay within his "safe" mindset , he should be alright.
Even when I train, juniors, different performances are sighted , due to their different risk tolerance and charcters, so long as they understand the concept and stay within "safe" self guided limits, its mostly fine.
However, I would like to impress on many that when I was in room rescue senerios, even my hands may shake . And if them shaking their legs. is anything to observe, we were all probably shivering. So don't take this lightly.
There is no necessity to carbon copy me, find your own comfort zone.
But stay on real sizes based on your tolerance. Even now as a retiree, I am still in search of my zone. Due to that I am no longer a bank, I have to re-aline to risk appitite. For newbies , do the 1,1,1, and slowly find your equilibrium. But of course when you do that you may not always come to BE, but you unnecessary loss cutting would mean alot to your book in the long run , not forgeting your rubustness and nimbleness in the dancing with the market, improves tremendeously and very quickly. This is the real power of the human mind's ability to sync.
I am sorry that I have no magic bullet, just a technique in developing trading prudence. In fact I do not expect any to be able to be super, not within the year at least.
But if you can internalise the concepts and grow with it, It will provide well for those who stay conservative, holding to methodology and provide smooth income source.
"Would leighswww or fti or any of the oldtimers in this thread care to give an example say for a 100k account?"
If a trader needs me to help work out his exposure tolerance for him, without the liberty of tuely able to size him up. Then it becomes dangerous.
What would he do when I am not around to troubleshoot?
Moreover what can I do for him, when I am possibly a world away , that I cannot gauge trader's state of mind?
Best to find this out by demoing to find self first.
The market is the greatest teacher.
For this part, i was not doing a rescue sequence but the attack sequence you reccomended, am i wrong or am i missing anything? I thought lusan and a few others did the same? Pls advise
Further do not be confused that the attack sequence and the rescue sequence both take on the geometric basis. The purpose of rescue MO is to recover the scout , when encumbbered, therefore the minimum reponse is at least a fibo progression sequence.
The attack sequence is for press therefore should at least be a reverst fibo, to protect from possible retracement against possition.
The base of which could be the sum of all available ammo left over from the original rescue or scouts possitioned, whichever is applicable. If it slipped you, there is no possibility of further pressing when the base is not in the money. I mean well in the money.
Just for side note, my exposure had ever gone as far as approx50% of book in a few instances in the many years.
From the market squence you posted my position looks like this.
Due to trading against trend the rescue sequence should be 1,1,3
coresponding to marked 1,2,3 on chart.
selling Eur/dlr, and position would still be in limbo waiting for further developments.
yes sitoca,
the idea now if caught in such a situation is to try to clear position 3 with minimal damage, give the position 1 and 2 (dead in water)away. and await new developments to recover. but definately not going long here, so its going to be a long night for this trader.
So is selling an option here, the answer is NO.
In reality we are playing a broad volatility range and awaiting new developments. I believe most on the short charts may be long and taking profits here.
Note that from here the market is neutral, and there is no possible directional play, and positions must be squared.
It is most likely to be range bound.for some time.
aside is the best position.
regards
What I am trying to point out is that market bias have to be in relates to its impulse wave. Opinions, like lines on the chart blinds. And also that 10 mins charts are too in the middle of the road to provide sufficient data for dicision making, as well as forcing for longer babysitting requirements on exposure. this would be similar for those trading day charts.
Non impluse responsive is the word, I think.
So dance lots in demo, and the market will teach you.
Feel lucky, because in my time, we learned it the hard way.
Was Long earlier now flat. Looking to go short now. Nimble is the key if going down.
My concern is the E/U & U/J which still seems to be quite strong and not in sync with the G/U if going short.
This is market crosses tearing, when they align then the trend in the Eur/Usd will clear up for impulse push.
There are strategies to capitalise on this but don't go there yet.
Leave those piping techs to market makers.
Lets say you bad, are zooming out and if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters"
So what must you do?
> Exit Trade at BE if possible with foreign capital. If no foreign capital then take the loss.
If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right?
When this happens, what is the mindset to adopt?
> Exit trade and wait for opportunity to turn into direction of the current trend.
If you decide to fight instead, you are trading against the trend,
so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO?
> Do a quick rescue to exit with minimal damage. Do not overstay in the rescue too long.
Remember when you try to turn "on wind again" you work against the law of motion.
What does newtons law of motion states about the law?
Think thrust & distance.
> Assuming our initial Trend analysis is correct but we mistimed or wrongly position our entry, then when we turn into the wind, we are likely entering into a period where market is going to reverse against our position.
If you decide to turn, WHERE do you look for that fresh timing?
and if you use $$$ to turn,how much ground must be lost before the turn is effective?
> ???? Help! Need clues and hints!
Understand the MM tables.
When risk snowballs , what is the best alternative.
> Reduce position size?
Even if turning is the way to go to flow back into the trend, Whats the purpose? Whats the MO supposed to be?
> MO is the rescue sequence. Purpose to recover back the previous loss.
You try to use attack MO and the MM WILL kill your portfolio.
> ???? Help! More hints pls.
In effects , what I just demoed for you should answer the questions here.
You are in effects correct.
In reality , you need to practise the thought sequenses out under many scenerios, most you may get correct, but its the ones that you may deviate from the thought sequense that may endanger , your book.
So practise , practise and practise.
It is easy when guided, prove that you can think in this mindframe when positions are in market. You may be surprised, so practise.
@ sitoca,
there is nothing written in stone.
It depends on your risk tolerance.
but try not to go beyond, 3X normal average daily P&L
or it get very scary and can build on you very swiftly, normally without your realising.
Of course at banks we go as far as daylight loss threshold,
but don't be like that, you can burn out very fast.
The toll it take onyou physically is tremendous, so try to trade cool.
esp if you do smoke and drink.
Don't force. If losses are not too much , just cut.( that is unlessyou really see opportunity, don't guess)
Once a while your resolve may be tested, thats to be expected.
By far, the fact that thetrader manages the exposure on realtime would fare better than stop loss order traders by leaps , who often will get kicked in the groin for no apparent reason, except for position gambling.
Yes, I do smoke but its getting too ex now and too many restrictions in place. Its discrimation against smokers!!
Hi sitoca,
thats because the whole world is gearing for the kyoto protocol.
Just for info SGX will soon be trading Carbon certificates.
Soon we will have to pay to emit CO2.
Ponder having to pay to breath.
What is the world becoming?
fti, since I trade early every morning, it reminds me of my days of Zen meditation. This is a tough and demanding job for the mind, almost a spiritual practice. I guess I do Forex meditation!
Hey...I bought a hard copy of "the art of war" and a read a little every evening before sleep...I cannot image anyone doing forex without knowing what this book contains...I am slowly losing my mind!
Hi Lusan,
yeah, it has a kind of invisible hold on the mind.
Starting to expect their continuios intervention now, although it doesn't make me too happy. Messes up my charts with the big bars.
Hi DutchAngel,
Well, Mostly traders on daily charts probably won't feel much.
Except that it sure is a pain,,, to see a day key reversal fail, not being aware of the invisible hands that came manipulating.
And for the CB, at least we know that, they are on the job and trying to back paddle. This IS the markets.
Hi, fti! Do you mean that this sharp downward move is a feds job? How do you know that? I can have a clue now after some reading of ky,,,,, but not exactly. Thank you for that, btw.
Alex
Hi Alex,
Think nothing of it.
Please may I ask if you would remove name of file, thanks
we refer to it as ky.. in future, ok
By the way the short chart pattern, indicates that the CB is quite serious about the support for the USD, at least for now.Trade carefully.
regards
PS: About the CB,
well lets say a little bird told me they were checking.
Tis is very tiring, when the elephants fight, all little ants can do is to sit and watch, waiting for the right time to pick up the spoils.
gotta go , trade careful
fti I would like to thank you for all your efforts in educating & guiding us through the crocodile infested waters of the forex market.
I find the hardest part of your technique to come to terms with is the removal of protective stops.
I think I know how the market rythem works in processing stoploss & limit orders, and the illogical idea that you can safely put an order in the market with a 50pip stoploss & a 100pip take profit without the stop being hit before the take profit. After all isn't the market just a machine that processes orders.
With that said I continue to use a fail safe protective stop which I place a minimun of 100pips away from entry.
In most other respects I think I understand the logic of your ways, and as yet I haven't had a losing trade since 24th February trading Eur/Usd 1min 5min & 15min charts, following the hourly trend.
Regards,
BabeFX.
I am wrong until the market proves me right.
Hi BabeFX,
Glad to have helped.
Steady as she goes. Stay nimble.
What a elephant stampede?
Will be opportunities for us ants tom.I hope
Anyone danced this two step?
Funny managers, they open the flood gates ,
now they stand in front of the avalanche.LOL
Some may get the surprise , that
the 2 step may be even more profitable than just riding trends,
not that riding is bad , just difficult to keep balance.
Good traders makes $$ in all market conditions.
regards
PS: be careful of 1 min charts , very slippery.
if you follow close, 5min, 1hr, day is enough.
anyway whatever makes you the $$s
Hi mijamoto,
Since you are here,
some material for your education enclosed.
its from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Study well. http://www.newyorkfed.org/education/fx/index.html
The link and the pdf is the same.
I hope you manage to get the other 2 pdfs.
otherwise email me.
regard
PS: here goes, the cats away the mouse starts to play.LOL
Although long, it is filled with truth and experience.
In my 26 years as a pro market maker and manager in the forex markets, I have had the opportunity to see countless traders, not so unlike yourself who had given much in the pursuit of the search for that illusive niche in the markets.
This, as well as the desire to assist Leighsww whom I bumped into at Forex Factory lead me to starting this thread to see if I could impart my experience to the trading community at large. So here we are.
Be assured that there is a whole generation of traders and newbies out there in the same quest, as those that went before them. Mostly all, guided by their itch to riches and fostered by business hungry facilitators.
From material that I read in regards to the developments, I find that most if not all that is available in the print media, hasten their ruin, by introduction of bias foundations in their education. Being retire partly due to bad "health", I hoped that by spending some time to present my experience of taming the markets, it may do its little part in helping some along in their quest.
With your experiences and education of the "animal" that we call the markets, I am confident that you will most surely be able to grasp what I have presented.
Read the thread slowly, pausing to ponder that I had presented and see if much of it will help you ...................
More if it suits , I may like to ask if you would post this message on the thread, as a beacon, for some there, lest they are determined to reinvent the wheel, which goes in a full circle.
I am glad to have you onboard the thread.
Good Fortune
regards
Hi Lucky57,
Thank you for obliging to post.
I am sure many here, will learn alot from what you have presented.
Probably many questions too, which we will deal with as we move along.
Now, if you will slowly digest, this thread, you will find a perspective, that I hope will improve your quest to successful trading. Especially that you have gone into trading professionally.(taking the bull by the horns)
Welcome to the Naked club. You might want to read the whole thing because it does not agree with Mr. Tharp and other writers. fti has its own way of doing thing.
Hi Lusan,
I am not very sure what Mr Tharp's style is, but if you read what Lucky57 wrote, and he is well read, it reinforces what I do. But we will get to that soon. Of course, no two traders are alike. The principles that carry us should be similar. There are some issues but I am quite sure indepth analysis is likely to show where it syncs.This is a good direction to go, as you will see where the similarities for success are. And it is likely that we are singing the same song.
regards
PS: There is lots of development in the mkt front today, oil's gone thru the roof again,similarly gold and the wohole world is now readjusting, Be watchful.
Good point brought up about stop loss.
Before we go into dissection of the points, facts and practices.
Let me say something very important.
One very important trait of a good trader is that they do not take most things lying down, unless they have no opinion of the issues.
This is because good traders are very proactive in their actions, seldom sitting on sidelines. This characteristics translate into their trading, mindset and proactive levels.
If one sits on the side like spectators, chances are that they are non-reactive and dormant in actions during their trading as well, or slow to reactions.
Let me try to explain in an analogy.
If a person watches a marathon race,chances are that unless that same has been participants before, the likely hood is that they have the opinion (feel) that they can do better. That is until they come on as participation, before they can empathies with the scene.Mostly we believe that we can do stuff well, until, we are truly tested. So trading like most things in life is cannot be learn from "learning by watching". There is mark difference in knowing and having the ability to do.
One thingy I watch out for in training dealers is to watch for this. I KNOW that those who ask questions and participate in the "fight " comes out educated, benefiting from the "fight", whereas those that behave like spectators gain nothing, because they only learn from one faculty, whereas those that fought went in with all faculties. The most important is "feel" which one can only get from being party to event. there is also the body chemical aspect of endophines levels , which is part of the mind memory process. This is quite similar to muscle memory as in golf.
Perhaps the number one rule of trading is to cut your losses short and let your profits run. Those who can follow this simple rule tend to make large fortunes in the market.
....I guess we will never make it. I NEVER NEVER cut my losses short. I fight my battles to have not loses. Our ways of trading is so different to his approch that it might sound very ilogical. Imagine we do not use stop loses. I have none and I trade everyday. At the beginning I was full of fear.Now I would finding unthinkable.
You might disagree with the logic of placing an emergency stop (disaster) loss, I do hope you have the pockets big enough to protect you in the event of a major disaster or massive C.B. intervention.
Take care,
It is too late to close the stable door once the horse has bolted.
BabeFX.
I am wrong until the market proves me right (POP. Phantom of the Pits).
In truth, Lusan is absolutely on the money in his mindset and approach.
Just that, from a casual view, it is difficult for many to understand that Lusan is one up. And I can assure all that if you have traveled the road taken , one will realise the strength embedded.
Whhy I say that will become apparent as we dissect this stop loss issue.
We are dealing with psychology. I keep enough troops in my domain that I believe that I can bring more and more to save the day if I have to. Of course, my constrains are very well define: I trade the 5M for only 1 hour, I do not commit to trading more than 25 % of my potential trading capital.
My number 1 rule: Preservation of capital. I mean: I am a total coward. I want to win a war with the fewer number of battles, so I fight every 5M bar. Illogical? will that limit my profit potential? probably. I just want to win day in and day out, any number larger than zero is delicious. Everyone has to define their own pain level. For some is 1% for other is 2 %.
I play very small because I still do not know what is my threahold for pain...but I tell you that an stop loss set is hell for me..Today I was losing 200 pips and I just followed the teaching and rescue the troops for another win day. Why? I screw up. I did not understand PA...no indicator to blame, no system to blame but my own blindness.
If I am in trouble I might play for another hour then I will take my loses and go to bed and cry. I will stop. So far, in more than 30 wars, the only time I have a loss was when the computer acted on me and I lost my mindset.
Protection against a major disaster? I already have it. I only need to close the trades. I mean, I babysit my trades as if they were my own children. Could that happen? Yes, if you play when US news are coming out. Do I do it? No news trading for me. I already got burned once. It will never happen AGAIM in my whole life... Of course...I am just learning and in training.
There you have it, on the money Lusan.
And I believe he didin't had the liberty to read my posting at feb???? 's thread.
Where I stressed .
rule #1 preservation of cap
rule #2 preservation of cap.
rule #3 don't forget rule #1
You can reference Leighsww about that, as I am not sure where'smy copy.
Although Lusan's excuse is that he's coward, which may be for the wrong reasons. the mindset is howerver correctly on the money, absolutely.
The ISSUE stop loss order.
--------------------------
What is a stop loss order?
A stop loss order is basically a limit order.
This limit order automatically becomes a market order to fill, once limit specification is triggered.
Stop Limit orders: specify limits of slippage, exceeding which the order resinds.
The use of this sort of orders are normally placed at critical "BREAK" zones , either to prevent over losses in fast market situations or to limit exposures.
"Smart" traders use it as entries for break of ranges. To captalise on getting on runs after breaks. So it is the "stupid" traders that will sit at these levels to give away positions on breaks. Thats what many is lead to believe. The truth is that these zones are vacuum zones in reality. As even the most "stupid" traders in the world know how not to trade against breaks.
Stop orders normally fill with slippage to the disadvantage of the order always. There is no OB possibilities, if any trader gets an OB fill , please come and tell me.
If you had ever seen 3 phenning (300 pips)gaps , you would understand what I am talking about. I believe many may not have seen this as most retail traders are new to the business. This brings us to the subject of liquidity and illiquid markets, another topic ,,,,later.
In the futures market context, ask any pit trader , if they had seen possibilities of fill upon market at day limit. Ask any pork bellies trader, coffee,sugar,....etc, what happens when the market goes on 5 continuous limits. Ask them about stop loss fills.
Fortunately Forex markets have no day limits, nevertheless 300 pips gaps, although not prevalent is nevertheless possible. Pray that you do not live to see market meltdown situations. It will open your eyes. If you have the time , go study what happen to the markets on the nikkei systemic failure that took nick leeson out. Study the event and then come and educate me on what actually happened. Ask option writer about ability to delta neutralise positions in such scenarios.
As a matter of fact, traders gets killed, not because of the price volatility, but because of size caught. In reality it is the stop loss order that will kills the traders, due their belief that the large positions are protected by the stops. In effects they get the fills at the extremes when markets unlock and swing back after the market has found equlibrium.
For pros , they are always on the look out for the possibilities , therefore as rule of thumb , always have contingencies in excess of up to 90% of cap as contingencies for the eventualities. These can survive the abrasion in these mkts. This are dangers of mkt's possibility at extreme.
What's really disturbing , is the abuse of stop loss order by overleveraged & undercapitalised traders , normally putting then at vacuum zones , within the volatility band of possibilities. This is prevalent for day chart traders, who, are in actuality putting stops in markets based on day volatilities bands, while trading on the weeks or months volatility bands because they are not watching their babies.
Ask any true market gurus, if they have to put stops , these are placed leaps off extreme tops and bottoms for ride capabilities. They pray that the stops never fills, as being stopped out could mean heavy %es off the book. Then there are pseudo gurus who advocates close stop strategies, by marketing long trend runs scenarios to sell wares. And the masses swallow hook ,line and sinker.
There are many long term position traders in mkts, subscribing to their ability to hold mindset for weeks and months, going against the grains of the human nature composition. One of the strongest human emotional mindset capabilities is the sexual urge. How long do you think you can maintain that mindset? And we can be sold that the human can be disciplined enough to hold infinite expectancy mindset if we follow a "system". Mostly only failing and not taking profits due to mindset failure.
Mostly allowing profits to turn to losses or capturing head and tails of movements at best. And they ask, why they fail. Sure once in a blue moon , they may ride a satisfactory run, But mostly in detriment. Can we call them professionals?
I put it to you , that the pro, works like ants . collecting daily. Once in a blue moon , he gets caught in an unexpected attrition, but only due to inattentiveness, probably still coming out in the plus, net off.
The truth of the matter is if you have to trade with stops, "if you cannot take the heat, don;t get into the kitchen." Let alone gearing it.
I say beware the trap in your mindset, not the curve ball.
oh i just saw this post while i was tracing back the thread.
I must say sorry, my bad.
I have traded for sometime, well not as long as you but this is my sixth year since i have started trading.
It took me 4 long years to finally find myself in a profitable position, losing and losing, profit and losing again until i understood what stability truely is. I guess im a slow learner. And 2 years down the road i am still working hard to get myself to become financially free.
My reason for seeking your assistance in giving examples is:
1. In many instances, you will not be ard to police our trading, live.
2. In many cases, when martingling is involved, no matter how much books or words in psychology, there is bound to be many traders who will find themselve in an extremely bad position. The mental strength required to be in such a position is extremely huge. Even you conceded that you tremble at times. Getting the balls of steel is no mean feat.
but nevertheless after re-reading this thread a few times (yes i did, i'm a lurker ), i am slowly getting the point. The risks are small, but its starting to worry me that some already preffered doing rescues than making a clean attack? is it because a clean attack usaually results in smaller profits?
I'll continue demoing and try to learn as much as possible, it may take sometime, probably a long time. Thanks fti and all. Again, my sincere apologies.
best regards
jest
Hi jest,
Really no apologies is necessary.
I do like to stress a very important point since it creeped into my mind.
Do not think that all positions are to be rescued.
The invokement of the MO, is dependent on the dance sequence as well as the cap position of the trader. This is especially so if the dance in in effect out of sync with trader. ie caught on wrong side of the trend. Under this circumstances rescue is fool hardy. You can see this example in the position on the Euro recently. To rescue a "dead in the waters" case is craziness. With dance experience, you will notice that every nerve in the body is in revolt to your such decision and in effect a gambling mindset takes hold. If in doubt when you become too nervous on position rescues, listen to your body. Bite the bullet and take the pain and Imean cut loose. For newbies it may be hard to differentiate this body language that their bicam mind sends out, as they are probably even nervous even with the scout. For seasoned traders, it becomes very recognisable.
As in the story that was posted , when Karl, made the statement that he cannot lose somuch. iTs SIGN but already way overdued. Normally others around the trader can recognise this signs eaily, due to not in state of mindframe. The worst is for traders in the same state to come in consolation of each other. That is why , I have the buddy system in the rooms. So that another of senior capacity comes in rescue of an "outed" trader. Never trade against trend, trend based on the highs and lows relationship. NEVER try to rescue those. Rescue there will lead to rogue trading. That's where "cutting your losses short", comes in play. Sad to say nick lost his head to egor there. So please, no more bad sheeps. This being my greatest fear for some of you.
Another thing is that tables of MM are helpful initially for training. Once experienced , these tend to get in the way of reflex capabilities. Drop that training wheel (borrowed from northpro, thanks), as soon as you feel that the mindset is developing so as to advance the mind development. Alway be mindful of the geometrical nature of rescues. No two rescue will be the same.This is hard to explain, I hope I come across clearly.
Remember , the MM has a form (shape), but it is never rigid, otherwise it becomes the archeles heel.
regards
By the way, it was honourable of you to try to show the others the spreadsheet concept of calculus. Much appreciated. Remember, ditch it once it out live its usefulness. Let the mind learn, you will be surprise as to its capabilities. Divert the focus to the dance instead. Your minds guesstimates will probably be only slightly out. It is better even to stick to preconceived parameters than to have divided attention. This is because your mind will never violate its own threshhold for pain, so even if you had the figures , your mindset may reject due to out of comfort zone. Keep it always in your comfort zone. Under adverse worst case scenarios , that may just save your b,,t.
Well i do think its neccesary for me, as of now. Coz there are many things abt skews which are not at my finger tips yet. I will not feel easy until i can get the concept and calculations of averaging at my fingertips.
I'll need to note that as my position size grow, so does the value of 1 pip, and if i do not know my average price, i will never know how much i am losing, how much i may risk and worse still not having any idea the cost of 1pip with 12 troops in the hot soup. I may sound crazy but, thats they way it is for me, (i guess), as long as i do not understand the concepts of my skews and the risks that i am carrying, i won't feel easy.
It may take sometime for me to get used to this, but to me this is the base which will ultimately be my MM and only with a full understanding of my MM (its maths, logics etc), will it complement my MO.
Of course for an experienced tarder like you, the concepts and calculations are like plucking grapes, not for me, at least not yet. .
Which reminds me, its like im starting all over again. Its like how i first started out trading, its so hard to remember the currency quotes, you'll just have to get used to em till it just sticks at the back of your head.
Understood, that's why I didn't ask you to ditch it now. It was clever of you to have d.evised your own "baby walker".
What you mentioned is called experience, it comes with practise, then it become internalised , then it becomes difficult to unlearn.
If you do not use it much, then it becomes rusty,a nuisance, like the male pecker. LOL
im sure a many of us would beg to differ, at least not...."gulp"...yet.
Hi jest,
ROFLOL.
@M-H Trader,
Other than respect for CB, yes,seem so.
But that is if the charts can sing the star & stripes.
But there's no chart evidence of it singing that yet, although it tried.
So trading with the swings is the way to go for now.
Some good points here but isn't demoing a form of backtest too? Once you are done with the demo and ready to go live, the results obtain from demo are historical.
I believe its how a trader backtest, using the appropriate methods that will determine the validity of the results. Its a tool that if used properly will be beneficial to the trader but if wrongly applied then.......
Its similar to the MM and MO that Fti teaches us here. Who would have thought of trading without a SL or averaging into a loss trade? Again, in the wrong hands it is dangerous.
@ sitoca
In essence , you are right.
the slight marked differences in demoing and back testing is in the application of it, like you mentioned.
If the use is in testing, participant's abilities to feel and mindset training, it give in heaps. But if to show profitability , the result carrys little benefits, other than to convince one self.
The problem that historical back testing does not give sentiment feel to participant is its weakness, carrying no real value.
Having said that, however if the participant can create self imposed environment, where a point in the past is chosen and to test forward with it, then there is some value. The problem with cheating does also become an issue, as the participant cannot force the mind to forget, and the mind actually remembers the flow quite clearly. esp if testing was done more than once. You may start from different points in time, but the mind remembers the flow , including the volatility.
However it is sliced, the inability to create urgency in the mindset of the participant is still a factor. So to duplicate the most realistic, its best to demo, and even that has the weakness that the participant, will be aware of the lithal nature of the endevour.
In the stone ages were I traded and trained , we didn't had the liberty of demo, only historical data testing. This is only available due to current developments. Back then even accurate historical data was difficult to come by and it was expensive.
As you mentioned, this is a very sharp double edge sword. It can take you head off, if you cannot master it properly. When mastered, it is a very powerful, essentially very relaxing way to tame the markets, and if especially so if it was not your own $$$ at risk and if you had generated lots of foreign capital over time.
Confidence begets confidence.
regards
A more accurate way of looking at it is,
A managed stop loss and $$ cost averaging to regain footing on losses.
In terms of managing profit, I would say that mostly,
if you had a good head, it would be in essence managing itself, its the losses that needs the attention and massaging.
So sitoca, your perspective of it is essentially correct, the practising of this "under fire", The question, do you have what it takes with the correct mindset, mo,mm to survive live "running battles". That, you have to find out for yourself. In the end its all "YOU".
i believe it would be better to be in the attack...
coz MO requires us to dance with the market rhythm, thus the purpose of the scout is to confirm that we are doing the right limbo.
Once we find outselve in a rescue mode, it somehow confirms to a certain extent that we have essentially entered a the dance on the wrong foot.
Resulting swings would therefore confirm that all sense of rescue may prove worthless.
personally, i'll wanna be very wary of the rescues, maybe its just habit.
after a few rounds demoing the dance on 5min charts, i just find it hard to conduct a rescue beyond level 3, its nerve wrecking. Maybe its due to the MM.
@sitoca,
Be aware, ability to rescue, brings home the bread and butter. ability to execute good attack, bring home the bacon.
If I gave you a mio$ to back up your trading of the retail size positions, all you nerve wrecking would simply disappear. It is all just relative. You felt the nerves, probably due to captilisation and possibly because this MO is new to you.
Thank you for your link to globex. I shall not comment on that again, as I have posted about it here before. They have to prove their worthyness & efficiency to me, to erase their old bad records, and I am not so young that I should waste another 30 years to see if they can find their feets. The innovations and development I see in the retail forex is way ahead. Seems not so unlike, SMAs they seem to b always lagging behind
Not really. I am just learning...a beginner...I just try to apply what I learn here to my own way of doing things. You see, for me, the point is NOT making money, but to become the best trader I can be...then profit will be there, righ?
Lusan,
correct, "take care of the losses, and the profits will take care of themselves."
Good head.
regards
Sidenote: the feds wins again for now, but for how long? I take my hats off for their resilience, very pro, fighting tooth and nails.
what a roller coaster ride...
I take a break , before going into tralling stops. as am very tired, and preparing to see hoew laet london and Ny will fare tonight.
Lucky 57 thx for a sharing your life in forex. It is very useful for a young traders as i am to see how traders can kill theirself without strong mindset. I like the most your story about the student and when you explained how people trade among of their belief and not with some rational view how the current situation is. The biggest problem i see in traders, they don't know when to trade and when to not. If you know at least this it's much easier work. For instance it's much easier when you go in a silent markets with a winning side (you win slowly but with lesser risk) than in markerts as last days are. Huge volatility imposible for us retails to know what will big players do I traded till now only with one account of 50 USD which i screwd up and that was a million dollar valuble lesson for me. The only way to succed in any market is to have a many years of experiences because markets are moving in cycles and when you feel on your skin few of them you start to understand them :P
Regards and i hope you people weren't today sucked in market
Hi mijamoto,
Why are you doing trades when you should be studying what I posted for you?
One of the most important character of a dealer is..
YOUR WORD IS YOUR BOND.
You were supposed to try to take a job at the broking house , you mentioned.
on your vacation first , remember. and try to understand the business.
You try to take on the ,market, undercapitalised and not trained, and it will teach you lessons, and it will continue to teach you that same lesson , until you learn it.
You are young, prepare your self slowly. You develop bad habits, and you will spend the rest of your life trying to unlearn them.
Markets are testing CB resolve, these are the toughest markets to handle. Only the nimblest can survive in these. You are not ready.
I am doing what you said me! This hour i reread Lucky57 post and thought about it and i just make a comment. Thats true i want to come in brokerage house but i think they will put me for some administrative work (like typing some numbers and facts on computer and to send mails) but if you want to progress in any job you have to start from a bottom. I am not DEMO trading now for a 2 weeks beacuse i was whole day in schools and i am studying right now about international trade and stuff which you sended me. I am aware when you get a bad habits it's imposible to remove them
Then what about , the you lost 50 usd today stuff?
or did you mean last time?
Don't preconceive what they wnat you to do , its like trying to predict market. Just get the job, see how the people trade and the mistakes they make. Watch out for good traders, and how they trade, compare whats their MO. In short LEARN. and save money for capital.
If you are posted to back office ops, then learn how they clear trades, the processing of trades , how its done... there so much to learn.
When you are ready, only then make your mark in the market.Ok buddy?
Sorry! I expressed myself wrongly. It's a lil bit hard when english is not your mother language and you use phrases which have a different meaning in english. I wanted to say that in my whole life i lost 50 USD on one microacount and that was half a year ago :P
@ mijamoto,
So sorry buddy, my bad.
I just realised.
yeah, sometimes I tend to misread.
Sorry again.
It was good that you read that posting by Lucky57, he is well read.
It was nice of you to comment.
regards
Moreover when you are at the brokerage, you may bump on to big traders. If you were so lucky to meet up with people like Richard Dennis and were training turtles, it may just shoot you to the big time. If you are hardworking and possesses dealer attributes, which I believe you have, and tough and honest. You never know what opportunities may come your way in life.
I was able to become what I became, because someone gave me the opportunity, when I was young. In life you'll never know. When you are near people who are doing what you like to do, when you find a door open for you, alot of things can happen for you, Remember you are young, there's lots of opportunities open.
"Before Heaven gives a person high responsibilities, he will be tested to the bone before it is bestowed upon him."--Confucious
Hi Lusan,
the pic is just jesting.
Seriously, You probably wasn't aware of the USD devaluation from 2000 till now.
You must always remember that your neutral currency as an american is the USD.
Well to protect your Purchasing Power parity. (PPP)
To kill two birds with one stone, you could offer your USD to marry an arab.
To do that,you have to convert your USD. cos then your neutral currency won't be USD anymore,
your neutral currency would be Dinars and the dowry in gold.
AND try to find one that has at least two wells.One water and one oil.
I guess if you achieve that, you are fully hedged.LOL
Hi Lusan,
Those were just jokes,because you sounded in a panic when you asked. LOL
Heres the serious one.
As a matter of timing, you are at the extreme end.
So it is not prudent to hedge.
Nevertheless we don't know where or when the USD can bottom out.
With this resurfacing of the US subprime thingy, its hard to tell.
That Bush plan didn't do its trick, so who knows, where its headed.
If the Fed's insistance to support the USD,
may be we may have a little reprieve before it heads south again.
That would have to be traded.
OK, what are your options?
Here's what I did, so it may help you with some ideas.
you mentioned gold. Since when gold was trading 300USDper troy ounce, I had been buying it and storing it in safe place for my children's education fund. So over the years, cost averaged of the holding is around 500+ for that portfolio. Now that gold is above the 1000 USD, its expansive. What I do was that I bought quaterly with 5% of my paycheck until I retired.
Please be clear that the gold holdings is in Bullion (999.99) gold purity and not gold from the goldsmith shops. Those are handicraft gold, and you pay alot for workmanship and design. So that's no hedge.
Your option for bullion supply is limited to , if you know any bullion smelters(wholesalers).
Alternatively, since you are in the US is the maple leaf coins produced by the Royal Canadian Mint, you can buy at banks.
the European alternative is the swiss gold bars, not the chocolate flavoured ones,ok LOL
The Credit Suisse Gold Bullion Bar, come in various sizes.
The others is the kuggarand Gold Silver Bullion Coins Bars or
if you are in asia, the Sun Hung Kai Bullion coins, Moncatta gold and silver bullion bars,
Australia's Kangaroo Nugget bullion coins. ( some people like Asian Bullion more, because it is darker orange in colour compared to gold mined from other parts of the world)
Never buy bullion bars from unknown or unmarked sources. If you do get it assayed and certified first. Remember, never do paper gold or accounts gold, theses gold carries "cost of carry fees" embedded into the price. Best stay on physical bullion but of course you will have security risk for that, unless no one knows you got any. Beware of bandits and highway robbers. ( oh sorry, wrong century) LOL.
Other possibilities is silver, palladium and diamonds. And the latest instrument, titanium. For that I bought a few more golf clubs (drivers) than I needed. But was told that it was supposed to be in ingots. So now I am awaiting the introduction of titanium coinage.LOL
As you mentioned, you could open accounts in UK or Europe in your non neutral currencies accounts.eg in Stirling or EQ. Don't try to hold renminbi(China currency), its not freely exchangeable, at least not yet.
You best hedge is to hold a diversified holding of all the above mentioned. Aportioning the ratios of that holding to your fancy and dollar costing your purchases over a long period like what I did for my children's fund.
OR you may like the marry option, thats fun, they allow for harams.LOL
Oh , almost forgot, well, if you get caught in a depression holding your USD, you may like to snap up cheap agriculture land and convert them to commercial and residential land over time. This one could make you a LANDLORD aka king.
fti, thanks for the reminder. I might be a total fool but if I have to trade that chart, I would short it because my gut tell me of an upcoming pullback. If so, I should keep my saving in USD and wait for the pullback and then go EUR long crazy. Not too far away from my thoughts this afternoon, the rumor is that the FED will drop again the rate. This is close to zero...they will have to revert and then the PA will revert to fight a crazy inflation...at least for while
Note not prediction here: just chart reading! If it looks like a trend is confirmed, then a million traders saw the same and will play against it...so a reversal is coming...my foolish thoughts.
Dear Lusan,
Don't get weird, read that chart carefully, its a monthly bar chart,.
If you traded that chart, you would be holding your position for years and probably have to pass the positions down to the next generation to manage. LOL
regards
PS: another thing is , if you chosed to use the precious metals hedge, you incur, cost of holdings, as you will not be getting interest for your holdings. Normally the appreciation in value takes care of that, but it can be negative costing, sometimes.
Some people buy in to bullion and lend it out to source and get "consideration returns" but for me that incurs counterparty risk. So I rather hold to the physical as I am aware that I may not be around to see the liquidation of that portfolio.
AND reading into expectations and pre emtive action is unhealthy trading mindset. trade whats happening, not whats expected. Careful there!.
FTI whats your oppinion about gold. I was once on a seminar of Mark Faber ( i didn't know who this really as long as somebody few hours before seminar explained me) . He showed some ratios between Dow and Gold than he said that U.S money printing will kill the dollar and beacuse of consumption from EM it will rise to 4000. He also said swiss bank sold it for low money and they will buy it back at 2000 and 3000. In short everybody on this planet is yelling metals will go up and i don't like it. I think in metals is now one bubble rising which is a consequence of U.S economy turmoil and bernanke's pumping. regards
Hi mijamoto,
I am sorry, I am just a retired trader.
I don't have crystal ball like all those clowns.
So I just trade everyday the best i can.
Ride smaller overnight positions when I have opportunity.
Save part of my earnings and profits from markets for the family.
I guess intelligence is not my forte, just an old trader.
I check what the markets do , logic out the impact if any, and trust my charts and skills. Basket of precious metals and basket of currencies holding s is just hedge for PPP and savings for my family.
Your chart, monthly, and that is even worse, does not bear good for US.
Me? My plans are simple:
1. Protect my savings. Gld etf and oil etf for my 401K. I made 20 % in 2 months. That is not a good indication for US economy. Maybe get into some euro etf, and keep the rest in us currency. I distrust quick money.
2. Trade and trade every day as I do.
But this does not answer the key question. Where to park the non-trading money while keep high liquidty to take advantage of trading opportunities?
Is that I need to develop a much longer trading strategy for the "parked" cash while I develop my 5M skills? That is the question? Currently I have a bunch of $ in CDs and US cash. Playing the 1D chart with no leverage is interesting but it is NOT our way of doing things.
Am I trader? ...yes, well. I am a want a be trader... So I must be liquid to trade. righ?
Am I panicking? Sure. The FED is taking action almost everyweek. They behave as if the sky is falling. It seems to be falling...
In your non-serious message you mentioned arab money. That is a good thought. Today I learned that gas is already $5/gallons in CA. That is big news and not so good for US economy.
Maybe I should plan to move to Colombia or Poland! Hehe...hehe...
Hi Lusan,
there is no perfect hedge in this world. Basket of Precious metals are about the only possibilities. The others , they all gotta be traded. Whats most worrysome for you is the CDs , thats just paper.
The USDs can be mobilised at will.
If you take the options to migrate , then you may just be jumping from the pot into the fire. What makes you so sure that the others will not be hyper inflating as well.
I have seen the feds got themselves out of very bad situations before, and had even assisted them, in open market operations before. They are very professional, so this is just for now. Only that, the new team of administrators have to find their feet and not make more errs to compound their initial err.
If you think this is scary, you would be scared out of your skin , during the osmarks period. So steady, if you're not hedged , this is no time to panic.
I thought most 401K monry already sunk with enron already, so whats there to do. Just bite the bullet and flow with the tide. Thats the problem with all the funny plans govts do in micro managing citizens money, well thats govt issues.
I totally agree. I will (1) purchse more gold, silver and oil etf for me while leaving some cash at the side -I exited the US stock market at the top. (2) migrating away from US was not serious but I will use my availabe cash to increase my trading funds, and (3) trade, trade, trade.
There is nothing else to do. I wish we have more clarity but entropy is always there.
Lusan,
Remember, $$ cost averaging starts froma base and slowly builds.
Don't go and run your free funds in to gold and find that you cannot $$ cost ave,so think carefully how you must do it. Its not so simple now at all extremes.
I started my gold portfolio nearly 30 years ago, this was one of the things my dad's education did for me, in learning to "keep wood stockpiles, for rainy days".
As a trader now, I hope you know how to do it correctly. Its not so different from your forex trading.
regards
I guess, Lusan, you are not following closely. If you had read Paper Money" as I had suggested you , would understand. Its not so different now from then. I suggest that you study this thread very carefully.
Scouts honour.
"The central bank approved a cut to its lending rate to financial institutions to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent, effective immediately, and created another lending facility for big investment banks to secure short-term loans."
I tell you. I never expected to see so many rate changes from the FED in such a short time. Another rate cut and done in a Sunday! So the expected a major mess tomorrow morning!
Lusan,
Thats their prorogative, we the market will judge if its right or not by our positions. They can do anything they have to. This is the reasons why , I do not like to carry large exposures overnight, people does things thats impacts markets which may be hard to be reactive to.
I will greatly appreciate if you comment the little "chat" between me and LuSan where position trading in trending markets came up. It seems to me similar to the portfolio building you have mentioned. The way I try to do it is getting into step by step, as long as there is a clear trend, always alert to the possibility of change. Short targeted rescues along the way if wrong timing occurs, the "scout" left to build up the position. Do you think this is fine or is there a better way to trade the trend?
Thank you very much for any input.
Hi Jairo,
There's little for me to say.
I have given my opinions mostly.
To trade professionally, one has to be professional.
No professional, can afford to be caught gambling the markets, but most do,esp those managing OPM (other people's money).
To me these are non professional, but thats the latest fashion, so let them learn. And they will continue to learn the lesson until they get it right.
There are true professionals in the markets, and most will benefit from the ego of the pseudo gurus.
There are too many "pseudo pros" who only got paper, but these are not market warriors, are they?
regards
PS: It would be erroneous ,if traders only know how to trade term positions ( mostly based on predictive methodology). The pros use term positions only to enhance, normal daily revenue.
Well, thats just my take.
If there is any term positions to carry , it MUST always be an extension of the positions from the short charts trading and reduced to a fraction of babysitted positions , with absolute range backing from foreign capital that has been taken into book for any eventualities that may occur.
Thanks I am out: no short nor long. I just play 1-2 hr session trades. There will be many surprises tomorrow morning. I guess that the dollar will be even weaker.
Tomorrow morning, when I awake up for my trade, I would be fun to see what the london market will do. My guest that the day will be EUR/USD long. Of course, I will play whatever make sense to my poor trading sense. Short and cautions with the 5M and long and happy if the 5M say so: a 5M bar at the time, that is my motto.
Still, I never expected them to take action on Sunday Evening.
Lusan,
Its better not to guess. Reaccess the situation when you approach the market and try to get into the flow. Don't guess!
dam it, I just brought a few bars of those for easter.. :-(
argh, I guess I have to store them in my stomach. they will be safe there. ;-)
btw, fti, do u have a partner or a team that also helps u to manage the current open trades(exposures), when u have lunch or breaks.. or do u have to command the battle fully until u can get most of your troops back home(reduce exposure) before the loo break etc.?
thanks.
regards,
bl
Hi gfsr,
LOL, yeah thats good, my dad also taught me that thingy.
Seems, the stomach is the only place, to safely store.
Unfortunately, thats not long term store of value.
Yes, I have a team. For now I work mostly alone, but I have a "towkay" that I used to train at the institutions, helping. By the way "towkay" is his "pet name". He's trained. So if you like , its a two man team. We wouldn't be into each others blotter. Its works more like "check and balances". We are responsible for our own money and trades.
The truth is if position were build-up there's no such thing as meal breaks, and the likes. When exposed, the managing is paramount.
For the mom, the positions are "restricted" partly due to inability to source trust worthy broking, but this may change rapidly as this retail industry matures and the broking becomes more robust and genuine.
Hi ALL,
In effects, I don't know what the plans are.
But it is getting very cheap to borrow, but the qualification to borrow becomes very tight due to eligibality to do so(sub prime failure). So I wonder where all the cheap funds are flowng toward. Very dangerous indeed.The question is who the benefactors will be , ultimately? And who's paying the bills for this feast?
regards
If this is their plans to pry open china's exchange mechanism by galloping her hyper inflated state, I got this sinking feeling of a back lash. She sure has her plates full though, with the tibet issues and her hyper inflation to deal with. So looks like olympics starts earlier than expected. LOL
Thanks for the reminder to avoid any guess or predictions.
Today when I traded, I noticed the response of 5M to the news and it reversal...what to do? Simple, the news is saying go long because this is not good for the dollar, the chart was telling me to go short because is the post-news effect..The chart was telling me to get ready for a reversal...so I waited a couple bar drinking some nice water and I went...LONG...got some quick punches and ended the day...
You are absolutely correct. When I trade I MUST keep any news influence from my decision...I must be totally neutral and listen to the 5M music othewise my feet will not able to dance.
Regards
Hi Lusan ,
Absolutely on the money.
Abilitity to understand whats happening i markets is essential.
Its like if you are dancing 2 steps, you are aware that the band may change the music , sometime, You don't know when or how fast that will come. Although you are aware, your focus must be on now. This is because if you mind is on what might happen, you loose focus on what is happening and there is a high lightly hood that you will stumble. So be aware, but do not let it impact your dancing. If the analysis is that the music may change soon , then go to the edge of the floor ( deflate your possitions slowly) and bail out when there's signs to spook you. But stay on the "NOW DANCE" until that change comes.
Also don't be too smart and jump the gun.
You wouldn't want to be dancing boogie, when the music is 2 step.
One very wise man taught me this.
"The worst things in life is to wait for something that comes not.
and go to bed and sleep not."
fti, do you ever make use of limit orders? You mentioned that "smart" traders use it as entries for break of ranges. But that is introducing rigidity into the system right? As you mentioned, sweeps are fairly common so limit orders on the break could be triggered by a sweep and would be no better than a stop loss. So it seems that going back to observing action would be the best bet - something like a throwback would be a good sign to enter, would it not?
Also, what is an OB fill?
Hi Zoran,
when I said "smart", I meant the traders that thinks too highly of themselves, for their own good. That was why the smart was in quotes. The kind of traders that knows all, except how to be consistently profitable. And there are many such traders, they consistently lose money, but they seems to be very knowledgable about markets and technical analysis.
The context , that it was used was to describe those traders who uses stops orders for entries on breakouts, have rigid stoploss orders and consistently gets stopped out, but insist that, it is the correct way to trade. Some even goes so far as to claim that they can be stopped out 10:1 ratio and still be profitable. And if they didn't caught the one, that would putl their books to profit, it was always someones elses or some unforeseen event's fault.
OB in golf stands for "ball out of bounds".
OB in trading orders stands for "Or better"
When you put an order to the broker to buy limit X.XXXX OB ,
The order is to buy at price X.XXXX or better. So the fill can only be either X.XXXX or lower than X.XXXX. In the interbank brokers the term used is "bid".
Similarly when you put an order to sell limit X.XXXX OB,
The order is to sell at price X.XXXX or better, therefore the fill can only be at price X.XXXX or higher than X.XXXX. In the interbank brokers the term used is "comes"
So for OB fill, it stands for or better fill. Which mean at limit price or better.
The context that it was used was to mean better price fill than the limit specified.
Regarding your question on whether I use limit orders,the answer is no.
I alway use market orders for trading.
When I was market making for teir 1, I was the two way price, so effectively I was the market.
Limit orders are instructions to fill orders within specific demarcated prices zones, with discretion , and I don't see the benefits from such action. Other than that the trader doesn't have to watch the market.
I believe you may already know my opinion of traders who do not watch markets.
I greatly appreciate your style of trading and I am very thankful to you for all your teachings in this thread, including direct answers to my foolish questions. But I think there are thousands of ways to win in the markets (of course, there are millions of ways to lose!). I would not be so ... rigid ... about traders who don't follow the markets. There are probably a few profitable people among them. And there are investors... Warren Buffett doesn't care at all about 5 minutes or daily bar charts...
Hi Jairo,
Thank you, for your kind words.
I do not believe that any questions are foolish, just that some traders may be misled in mindset and find difficulty to realign to see the truth. I note your insistence to believe that the methodology I presented could be successfully modified to cater for term trading. This is very far from the truth, because the strength in the methodology is in its ability to troubleshoot quickly when not in sync with the markets flow.When such is transposed to daily time frame, the practise become dangerous, as the trader is unable to sync quickly to correct he err. This is because on such time scope, the non reactive response by the trader incurrs slippage. If you can appreciate that the volatility on a singular 5 min bar can be up to 50 to 300 pips in an extreme environment, you must appreciate that the the volatility AND slippage on a day scope would be much larger. And it is my belief that traders do not have the capitalisation , nor the stomach for that kind of risk. That is in, trading outright exposure, letting alone snowballing risk with high gearing, as this MO requires.
I do not have figures to tell what the success rate of traders are, when they trade such time trame, but I can atest that all the traders of whom I had the opportunity to meet (doing that) have failed in such endevours. I have drawn my conclusion based on that , concluding that , it is not the prudent way. Not withstanding , the having experienced my methodology, for the numbers of years I was at the banks.
If you believe there is validity in your modifications and that it may be successful, please by all means, go ahead and prove it to your complete satisfaction.
You sighted Warren B's modus operandi, and I would like to high light to you, that as you so mention, he is an investor. Therefore he operates with a different MO. You seem confused with the differences between trading and investing. If I may be allowed to highlight to you, Mr B does not even trade the stocks market, his MO is in buying and selling companies. In the financial circles, it is known as raiding. Have you ever heard of company raiders?
Although, I can excuse your misinformation due to your indoctrination and education. Please be so kind as to compare apples with apples and not bring forward an orange, siteing that because they are all fruits, that they are the same.
Please do not take my response as disrespectful, It is just that we stand very far apart in doctrine, and from my many years of experience, I can see that you are unaware of your follies.
regards.
PS: Please do not feel other than that I have the utmost respect for Mr Warrant Buffet, a prudent and honest man. One does not become 2nd richest in the world by being careless, but I must point out that he is not within the same platform that forex traders/dealers stands.
Afraid of trading because of the FED? I have the same feeling this morning...I thought..."Hey... fear of the FED means to stop trading....F*** the FED, I will trade today otherwise I develop a terrible habit." So I trade and I ended my session with 47 happy pips..Even again the 1H trend...
Hi lusan,
Good for you.
BUT, please have some respect for the feds.
1.You are trading his markets.
2. They are just doing their job the best they can.
BUT, is this a case of overconfidence, I am seeing.
Careful there, as the ego thingy have been the downfall of many a good traders.
The vulgarity was not necessary and unbecoming.
Count the money quick and laugh all the way to the Bank, while you're at it.
Amazing!
Any way, fti we are here. My sucess rate after incorporating whatever I understand of your method is +90 %. Before your teaching, I did not undertand a thing about the 5M and my target was 10 pips/da, today because of the little understanding I learned, I am confidet that 30 to 100 pips per day within the hour is possible. But who cares!
What I mean? ...I mean that I am grateful of your teaching.
Hi Lusan,
I am glad for you.
Do pat yourself on the back.
You see, your success was due to your openmidedness and attitude and dedication.
I just pointed the direction.
Ultimately, it will always be "YOU"
So be nimble and guard against the ego, then you will be fine.
As always, thank you for your attention and patience.
According to Forbes, Warren Buffett is the n. 1 now!
When the FED came in with their 200 billion last week, the EUR suddenly plummeted. I had some small positions then. Thanks to the trend I was in profit. I looked at price action and saw a possible big stop hunting approaching. Bought 1/100th of the maximum allowed by my broker (0.09 lots) during the second big dip. I thought of that moment as a panic sell off. There probably is no better moment to buy! I don't remember to have felt any emotion when I hit the buy button. Later I closed the other positions in profit and I am still holding that 0,09 lots position (now for 439 pips profit). Ended up the week +6,4% on equity. Do you think I was crazy and lucky? I think there was logic in my procedure. The market was in very strong hands when I jumped in, imho. Big players don't sell in panic. The small fish heads were being cut off. Am I seeing ghosts?
Hi Jairo,
You seem to be on a streak.
The USD seems to be very weak, with mostly all factors working against it.
The feds will no doubt , be in sometimes to stabilise the devaluation. Thats their job.
Be mindful though, of catching falling knifes.
You got out fine, bookwise, be be mindful that you are not excessively exposed in dangerous maneuvers. But I see that ypou kept it small, for managing. So that's a point up for you.
"This is an important fighting method for one man against many. Strike down the
enemies in one quarter, or drive them back, then grasp the timing and attack
further strong points to right and left, as if on a winding mountain path, weighing
up the enemies' disposition. When you know the enemies' level, attack strongly
with no trace of retreating spirit."- Ni To (Two swords) miyamoto m. san
"In strategy your spiritual bearing must not be any different from normal. Both in fighting and in everyday life you should be determined though yin yang.(equilibrium calm)
These things cannot be explained in detail. From one thing, know ten thousand
things. When you attain the Way of strategy there will not be one thing you
cannot see. You must study hard" - waterbook, miyamoto m. san
"There is timing in everything. Timing in strategy cannot be mastered without a
great deal of practice
There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in his thriving and declining, in his
harmony and discord. Similarly, there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the
rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able
to discern this. In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the
outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from
among the large and small things and the fast and slow timings find the relevant
timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the
main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing,
otherwise your strategy will become uncertain.
You win in battles with the timing in the Void born of the timing of cunning by
knowing the enemies' timing, and this using a timing which the enemy does not
expect.
-Do not think dishonestly.
- The Way is in training.
- Become aquainted with every art.
- Know the Ways of all professions.
- Distinguish between gain and loss in worldly matters.
- Develop intuitive judgement and understanding for everything.
- Perceive those things which cannot be seen.
- Pay attention even to trifles.
- Do nothing which is of no use."
-- Nito Ichi Ryu,(two swords one school), miyamoto musashi san, 1645, aka Shinmen Musashi No Kami Fujiwara No Geshin.
But On monday I made terrible mistake
I enter market where I'm not supposed
Rescue team was sent not in right time
So after two mistakes I could not manage myself to cut losses ASAP
So i was stuck for 3 days
Yesterday teams helped a little, I was really careful,
So only today I could attack in full
FTI:
Thank you for encouraging to fight
But as far as I understood, It's better to surrender when We see that hourly and daily against us.
Could you elaborate on this again
Sorry...
And Thank you for your teachings
I'm learning not so fast but it is processsssss;-)
What i found that for me is much simpler to use attack sequence than rescue, if i'm on rescue mode it looks like I made fundamental mistake (i'm against trend and i need full courage to get out properly and within reasonable time)
Hi zenseven,
I am happy for you, that you came out alright.
The fact that you could, impliment rescue, and then further attack, meant that you probably had MM well.
That, as well that the 3rd day timing, probably saved you. So you must remember to time you rescues well, is the lesson that it should teach you, remember it.
Then move on, the next battle will be different, and more lessons will be learnt.If you remember to hold to good MM, you will have good chance to survival, in the markets.
"full courage"as you have learned is a prerequisite for living. Be mindful of swiming against the tide.
Yes, he was/is the model of the master samurai. Book of 5 rings? I think I should re-read it. Although I keep loving the AOW and I just discussed it with my wife...What a wonderful book!
To be accurate, he was ronin, but master (ni to) swordsman.
What a dream, training the masses has been for me.
Hi fti, you mentioned you would at times leave small positions open overnight. Can you explain the MO for these positions? If in profit, do you lock it in?
It doesn't matter what I do, Its what you would do,and "the void" you carry within you, that determines your survival.
"small" is relative to book limit.
"All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer,
but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved."--Sun Zi
I understand the positions are small, but I still don't understand why you do it as your teachings discourage it. If we are not there to look after our babies, I was just thinking you would leave something open if already in profit and the signs are it will continue but if that is the case, would you lock some profit in?
I would prefer not to leave anything open overnight.
How are you gonna ride major trend runs, otherwise?
regards
You have err, on what has been taught.
I can cut hand to hand with my short sword, what do you think I can do with the long sword?
Skypeters, do not lose hope. This thing works. What about reducing your sizes to very small (0.001 lot) and practice attack/rescue for a while?
These are my two cents. Fti has the first and final word. I hope I am not writing too much in this thread. My excuse, fti, I get carry away.
Regards
hi Lusan,
No problem, carry on.
In effects, like I said the presentation, had already ended some time back.
I am just tying loose ends, to help if any may be going the wrong direction.
One "old timer" on this thread, Zoran , just found his foot as he emailed me.
If he is willing to share what he learned, it may be eye opener for some here.
You in effect . learned very fast, probably because of your background foundation. There' re some tweaks and alignments for your style. But essentially the mindset, MM, is ok, the MO is your own, which is good for the restrictions you may have in terms of time constrains. Eventually it will all come to you, just have patience and practise,practise and practise.
Here's something to help you along. Remember, knowing how to use short sword although can bring home bread and butter. Its the ability to combine both the short and long that brings home the bacon.
Trade well and do not forget to be a sandpiper for some of the unfortunate, with some profits when you can. Then it makes it all worthwhile. When was the last time you did something nice for your family or strangers in need?
Most do not help others, because they cannot afford to. When you have means and not do it, then its somethings else, deep within. And this goes for all who can find their way from this thread. Otherwise watch that mindset. Remember. tt can eat you from within.
"Beware, the enemy within you."
In regards to the triangle I mentioned, I was not trying to analyze for patterns, just noticed that PA was consolidating and volatility was waning. Hard to dance with a partner who is standing still. Definitely wasn't trying to analyze anything in order to predict.
Hi skypeter,
If you think it is hard to dance with a dormant partner. How do you think you would fare dancing with a partner thats all over the place. There are a million variations and possibilities althought the decision is binomial in nature.
Seek for the master timer within self. Deal with every situation as best you can, and as best you can handle.
Check your own rythem ( know self), before you try to check the markets rythem. Re-access the time frame you are observing. Slow and steady, never rush. It creates bad ability to feel. And never allow frustration to get the upper hand, tame it. Be relaxed and focused. Glide with the flow, don't force.
All,
Another great week on the markets as patience paid once again, wish the same for everyone. Wishing you all a very happy holiday weekend, see you all next week.
Regards,
NP
hi Northpro,
Great, Make me feel good that you are doing great.
Keep it up. Happy holidays.
I have experienced these strong moves (that we have been calling market "tsunamis") with real money 4 times. God pitied me (or my family, probably I don't deserve His protection), they were all in my favour!! Not large money, but real. Two times I went after it, but that is not prudent. If I had taken the wrong side...
It is very hard for me to find something useful to tell you. I know now that you are aware of the risks (I confess I thought that was not the case, I apologize for my error). But I would never tell you something that could risk discourage you from experimenting. I began in the stock market in 1997. Forex in 2006. Though surviving (I never wiped out an account), I was a net loser. After finding this thread I turned into positive territory and I am holding there. But I don't think my results are convincing. I keep track of weekly and monthly equity changes and perform statistics on them in an Excel spreadsheet.
I am curious to know the average return you have been obtaining but I don't want to lead you astray or take time from your search. I made some experiments trading for 1 to 2 hours a day. Still make some short raids into the market, but not systematically...
Don't know what more to say. I wish you continued success in the markets..
Hi ALL,
@ Jairo,
I hear you.
If I may, be so arrogant, as to tell you.
I see clearly where your status is at this moment.
In the pro circles, we call it "burnt out".You are quite finished as a trader.
I have seen very many such cases in my lifetime and some of them are very profitable traders.
There's many causes, some just burns out after deep protracted battle, some just snap, because of mental stress, even after successful campaigning. In so many ways, I am there too. Thats one of the reasons why I have given my most treasured trading ways to this thread in public. Hoping that someone can pick it up.
Someone, not to mention names, sent me email proposing for me to handle 100 traders accounts as a business proposition. I have been laughing, thinking, what promted that I would consider doing that.
I can easily go back into the banks or funds managing, with my credentials and profitability, but will not.
The reason is that I still feel "burnt out" and in r & r. What I used to make in income for being in work for one year, I can safely sit back for 10 years just spending it. Just to suggest my nestings. There's only so much 6 stars corp perks that it become meaningless. In effects, I have become very simple in my living, that even my family wonders where i am at mentally.Whats on my mind is to trade sparingly when I feel like it, and take good supplement money monthly to compliment my nestings and live simply, instead of subjecting myself to boards directives or unnecessary pressure on carrying books, or training new front lines. Not withstanding being accused of intentionally suppressing the books performance.
Why am I telling you this?
It may become clear if you can understand.
You are burnt out because of the battles that have spooked your bicam mind, and there is no way to erase that. Its a scar, you have to learn to adjust to.
The possible direction that you can go, is this, that I have done for some of my best men who had burnt out. What I did to preserve their ability to trade, was to cut their trading lines to half their normal. And to further halfing it until I find that they are operating, without pain until they had recovered. In the banks, its a little difficult , as there is minimim performance to account for. And there's only so much off their behind that I can try to cover. For people trading their own funds, it just a matter of parking your dreams for the "pot of gold" ( put it on hold) and being contented with small profitability to sustain your lifestyle and to accumulated "rainy day wood" in case of difficult times. Try if this may help you. Re-access your pain threshold objectively. In some cases, it helps revive a new trader. If this cannot help you, I then suggest a "change of life" towards different directions.
Rest assured that in a burnt out state, if you force it, it will get ugly, and I have seen it happen to many of my peers. I seriously ask for you to reflect on what I have said. To be a successful trader, the mindset hold is paramount, inability to sustain peak, can take your book to very dark cold and hard places. The traders life is very lonely, usually between him and himself.
So if you insist to be functional, slow down, "smell the roses" and glide along s.....slow, until you are numb to your mental state. I cannot be absolutely sure where you are on the scale, but I get a fuuny feel from reading your post , that 1 more "tsunami" as you call it , it may just push you off the edge.
Like I said, in trading "the spirit" has to be strong,
never allow that to be broken.
In the room , I alway tell my boys,
"its ok to lose money, we can make it back, but lose the balls, and its game over."
When I retired , when I felt burnt out, my boys kept asking, why?.
I told them,
When I am there, I motivate and held them up when they fall,
But when the motivator burns out, who can motivate the motivator?
till this day, the reply I constantly get is, that they are sure that I will return, its a mot (matter of time).
So here I am, you are not all alone. But only you can help yourself, and only if you want to, bad enough.
Take time off, if you must. Even the strongest can fall. Just ponder, why even legends like WD Gann ultimately turned to selling advisory. Its called re-adjustment.
Another alternative , if suits, is to learn to trade using option model ( Black Scholes ), its called theoritical edge trading. That isn't so stressful. I coined a word for that, "educated trading". And if you think spot trading is ants work, thats like working at bacterial levels. LOL. Safest profitable methodology in the world, and even nick can screw up doing that. Tells heaps about mindset & risk, doesn't it.
So i repeat, RE-ADJUST or REST the balls. ( no vulgarity intended)
@ Lusan,
And for you, whenever you are in "total darkness and the path forward is not visible". You better know who's in command. Blind warriors don't go places.
regards
PS: lusan, actually your book seems very healthy. just add zeros behund the pL and you can ride clouds of possibilities. You are doing 90%+ accuracy in less than a quarter, quite impressive. now the only problem is, will your mindset agree with you in your quest, If its negative, then you have to go slowly to build. But stay with new levels at least 1 or 2 quarters before going up the ladder. And be comfortable in terms of foreign capital before climbing that ladder. Don't waste the ant hill.
I meant that I face PA without much preconceptions and that the path pathfoward is invisible because it has not arrived yet, and I do not make predictions: I react to pair action...
I know who are in charge: PA plays its tunes and my index finger does the dancing...It is dance of three: PA, me, and myself.
Your advise was excellent. To have an index finger injury...that is serious business and healing would be needed...I guess time, taking the mindset to the hospiltal, R&R, and downsizing would help...
Regards,
Lusan,
So you meant that you are prepared for action, just that you are timing the move.
Sorry , I sort of miss read that.
OK. dance gracefully.
Thanks for the encouragement. I know that just adding zero and the sky is...Yes...Mindset? that is the key...could I hold it as I move up?...that will be the test...It is NOT the tactics and the trading mechanics but the strategy and the mindset that will determine our limits...
so I will follow your advise: 1-3-6-9 size levels. Then reevaluate my emotional training...Currently I am in the first level so the plan is to move to the second level on May 1.
...Just to keep myself adjusted I began bringing new capital to my trading account and I will be keep adding until max capitalization...after all Oanda pays interest on balance...It is just a money market account with trading capability...you figure..
Regards,
Lusan,
Add money is a personal issue, try to keep PL within scope of mindset and foreign capital.
Don't ever let the market scar your mindset, you are not trading banks funds. Thers no need to rush ROI, ok
regards
1,3,6,9 not so fine progression.
note the 3 rescue is strong, too strong in front,
and then 6 martingales.
the 9 drops back to fibo.
I feel for you, that the front is very strong for rescue. and your back rescues are weak, so seems you are stacked in front.
this is better for attack than rescue, and for attack this is very very strong.
Please rethink.
That is unless from your experience, your dance rescue is very sharp.
If in 2 steps you can time right then the attack is very very strong.
Is your wife influencing you on the aggression?
I conclude, that this is dangerous for you,
do you know you risk snowball skew rate?
Seems out of line and unstable.
When Did I suggest this skew?
By the way, do check your brokers credit risk before putting too much funds in. Also check if they segregate customers money.
Sorry, but I did not explain myself clear...1-3-6-9 means that I will be increasing the number of units in my tropps to 3X by May 1 and then every quarter I will be increasing again by the same amount....If sucessful I will be playing mini lots by early fall and the we will see..
Currently my battle are set as:
Attack: 1-2-3 (Linear)
Rescue: 3-9-20 (Almost geometrical)
I definitely do not want to have more than 3 wave attacks since I feel that there is a reversal waiting after the third wave.. If I have so send more troops then I am in rescue mode...then I just become a crazy Musashi fighting with two words and ready to kill any enemy in sight...
Warning: I am free to change anything and go 1-2-3 which is followe by 3 or 6 quick punches to bring supplies to the fort. I have done it many times. Nothing is fixed; it depends on the tune that 5M is playing. I just react to the music. My dance is not mechanical at all. I live every trade.
I demo explored the attack sequence 1-3-9 and I found that the 9 was too strong and very risky. Probably the best for me is the 1-1-2 (normal martin) but then my sizing woul be very different...Something that we have not discussed here, as far as I am aware, the relationship between three elements: attack sequence, total army size and number of units in each troop....This is one of the aspect that I am still exploring...1-2-3 works very well for me...Now I am just increasing the the number of units in my troops...that is the meaning of the 1-3-6-9.
My ideal attack sequence is 9 and then prun the tree as you did in you example...but I am not a master...so...I act within my limits...
By the way, a piece of trivia, I downloaded every single message from this thread and I have a 1141 pages word document. I am very sorry of the newcomer having to read so many posts!
Regards,
Lusan,
Ok noted
Yeah about the too many posts for saving.
Too bad that , the thread lived too long. LOL
Just life I guess.
Still better than if I had put pieces, all over this forum instead.
Then the search would drive most boonk.
Anyway, not all is important, gotta sieve out some posts, I guess
Again I have the only option to thank you very much for the amazingly insightful reply. Open hearted as it was, demands the same on my side (as hard as it is for me). I feel a lot burnt out in fact, but I am a strange kind of alien thing. Though I am 48 years old and began at 37 (a big latecomer!), I can't give up as I maybe should after 11 years in the red in the stock market and (at first) in the forex market. I laugh at myself but still try insistently to reach my goal of consistent profitability. I am not after big figures, but regular and reliable ones. Life will NOT allow me to throw the towel. I can't go higher professionally outside the markets. I know my limitations. Here is my only chance.
I trade with aproximately 3% of my savings. 97% is in fixed income until I prove to be able to trade safely and consistently. You may ROFL, but I have the ideal of trading OPMs!!! A sales representative of my broker said that 2 to 5% monthly on equity is a "professional level" result. Indeed? My average is above that but I am not consistent. Statistics says I may have been only lucky recently..........................
Hi jairo,
Thanks for your detailed reply.
In many ways, it shows that you are a success in life. The resilence you have shown, inspike of the the mounting odds, stacked against you for 11 years, when you started on this trading quest. On this alone , I am opinioned that surely that you are victorious with "flying colours" in other aspects of your life's persuits.
If I may be so bold as to ask you, to reconsider the directions that a "sales rep" tried to sell you. To illustrate the point , I would like to tell you a story that I had learned.
This wisdom was told me by one of my Malayan friends.
There once upon a time was a fisherman, lazyly resting under a coconut tree. ( In malayan stories, there is alway one resting underneath a coconut tree and wearing a "sarong" , a one piece warp around the body cloth.) He was a successful fisherman as he owned two fishing boats and had 20 employed fishing for him, while he rested under the coconut tree.
Along came a "sales rep" praising him for his success. Nevertheless, the rep continued that , with his success, why didn't he considered, setting up a bigger structure by borrowing funds from others. (going public, if you like)
That would afford that with the additional capital, he could buy 10 more boats and employed 100s of workers to fish for him. So with his capabilities , he can become rich.
The man pondered for a while, thinking deeply.
Then he asked the rep, a question.
He asked the rep, that, with all the riches he could get. What could he do?
The rep replied, "Anything in life", what would you like to do?
The man replied. Resting under a coconut tree.
The rep replied, Why, you can do that too.
And the man answered, the rep, what do you think I am doing now?
I hope this may give you some insights as you ponder on the story.
This is also the reason, why I sat laughing by myself for the longest time.
leighsww, finally, someone helped a dummy out. i appreciate hw u always show mercy time and time again to the slow ones.
u see, i work long hrs and i knw i shldnt be complaining so i'll skip my personal problems.
thanks for ur reply, i was waiting all along. u see, since this thread i have been rescuing trades entering in the "opposite direction" (eg sell) when i gauge price moving strong enough against my initial entry position (eg buy) to reaverage me out.
i have 133 trades with 11 loses, so it has worked. bt looking at ur charts, it seems that ur rescue is still in ur initial direction of entry, u just wait for the price to resume initial direction.
my questn was, if that is the case, hw are u always sure price wld resume ur initial direction ie buy or i guess even in a trend change there are always entry options as price doesnt move in straight lines.
(aggh, hope i explained well enough)
Hi jku,
Much agreed, Leighsww has a golden heart, and zooms about like the mother theresa of traders.
In effects your results are ok, just that I believe that the 11 losses may have taken away more thanhalf of your profits, right. That needs to be looked into.
Of course untimately it is more meaningful if you can find and fix it yourself. Nevertheless, there's many here that may be of assistance, if you call out.
Alternatively, you may like to search thru the thread for the needle, Its actuallt there.
Like you I have a scientific and business background...many titles, patents, and other skills full of tricks and math knowledge-I even have patented NN innovations...
Welcome to the 5M dance.
Hi Lusan,
huh, your cover blown.
no wonder you caught on so quickly.
have been reading this thread last month but was put off by my inability to understand much. decided to come back to read last week and now able to understand a bit more....thanks to leighswww & many others who have posted answers to questions raised.
i'm on a 1 year no-pay-leave bec of family circumstance and decided to use whatever free time to explore if forex is a potential source of income.
back here in singapore, numerous forex courses are available ranging from $500 to $3k...and the feedback from students have been mostly negative.
that's why i am very thankful to fti for his generous spirit in sharing in this thread. though i have yet to start any trading, he has already helped me saved much $ and time. his spirit has definitely rubbed off on some forumers here who have shared many helpful tips & pointers...and i just want to say a big thank you to all those who have contributed.
hope to be able to share on my trading journey in fututre...
tangoandrew
Welcome to the difficult side.
Take you time read, think read again, think again.....
It will come to you ,if you practise and practise......
no amount of reading without practise will help.
You have been told.
Thanks for the reply luSan. Today I have been like Dr Strangelove. If you remeber the film with Peter Sellers - he would occassionaly try to strangle himslef with his left hand - and his right hand would have to come to the rescue. Went long USDJPY today at 10060 - went against me so I hedged -.... Net result 60 pips down.
I'm going to use demo (I use a very small account to trade normally, but snowballing raises the stakes). I know what I have habitually done over the last few years is misidrected and ineffective - but like a heroin adict it's going to be hard giving it up. If I had rescued my scout at 10000 I could have got out BE.
Hi bigblue,
Welcome, you seem intelligent, this would just be walk in the park for you.
But for your other part.
Nothing that cannot be corrected.
Just drop you pants,
I'll get Leighsww to give you a good wiping
and then she 'll give you the jab and medication,
You won't feel a thing. LOL
Really, don't you think you should give that shadow of yours a good heart to heart. It may have had difficulty in understanding the value of money.
Ian, I left out the time frames and data on the charts on purpose, as to me it does not matter what time frame you trade, the criteria is still the same. The charts look the same just more waves as we start breaking down the subsets.
I will try to post a more detailed look at this from the higher time frames down which will pull together some of my earlier posts but it will take some time.
I agree that using my setup Fig #3 if the bottom fails it spells change of direction, I have looked into a stop and reverse but it favors (in my mind at least ) as a break out trade in the opposite direction, not in my original intent.
There are some stop sweep issues to take into consideration as well as dancing in the direction of the higher time frames, but i will try to pull it all together.
I am comfortable with the approach, but I feel the MM needs tweaking for optimization, and I dont want to lay a minefield for my self in doing so.
@ Leighsww, agreed, there are more pips to be had when we trade the small waves, but it requires more screen time to manage them. One of my mentors always said that a good trader will take a 100 pip move and get 200 or more out of it.
a
Hi auxesis,
I have studied your chart and analysis.
Seems you have forgotten to use your short sword.
Ability in using the long sword may look impressive, but without short sword ability, won't mean much to book, except the gamble factor becomes very high.
Moreover your rigidity in 50 % retracements and wave mirroring seems dangerous mindset, that may be you achellies heel.
That makes a lot of sense to me. I reflected on ways to translate my way of dancing to your ways, and I came to this conclusion:just translate the dance to a higher time frame just as-is. For example, "13 5M bars in 1h is similar to 13 15M bars in 4H." It is almost the same dance, but we have more pips to capture for the longer war. This is something to reflect about. Nothing change but the mindset, personality, and patience.
Regards
Hey Lusan,
I hope both you and Leighsww, don't start confusing each other.
My wife is much smarter than me. When I told her the story of the coconut tree, she immediately understood that the salesman was intended to be ME. That idea never crossed my mind. I am so bad a salesman that I had to quit a 16 years job for not being able to sell decently. In fact, I am so sell-adverse that I know it is a serious limitation. My wife is not a seller, too. But at least she is smart, like most sellers! I think it is clear now why I take the wrong side of the market so frequently: I use to take the messages in the opposite sense. That for sure has been a big disadvantage in my trading career. I think I am the dumbest trader (trader?!?) in this forum. I should take trading advices from my wife!...
P.S.: hmmm... on second thought, my wife is not all that smart. She married me...
Hey jairo,
Not so bad, la
There are other perspectives as well.
Haven't you heard.
Behind every successful man is a smart woman
peeking thru his arm pit, watching out for him.
My 2 cents...The answer will depend on the higher time frame trend and you own understanding and gut...
For example...
if you trade the 5M...and 15M and 1H are trending in favor of the scout... then rescue and book profit...
if 15M and 1H are against scout...rescue, kill scout, and reverse....or rescue and wait to see how the trend will go...
If you feel brave rescue and book the money and wait and see...
By the way...nice combination of the 123 and AOW approach...but is it no fair not to tell us about your time frame...it appears the 5M in a compressed form...Sure time frame are fractals...there is a book about it...and all frames are the same, etc...but still I have not seen 3 touches trend in 5M...but that is another topic...you are correct about the analysis...I moved away from it...and I have to reread it to see it clearly. Why? The trend lines and the bulkowski's measure that I rejected were back! Scary! They brough memories of long forgotten days...
Happy pipping.
Lusan,
huh!, playing with the dark side.
May the force not kick you in the ...
Yes, I certainly believe a good trader can do that, but what fti is teaching us here goes beyond just being a good trader, he's teaching us the skills of a "Pro" trader, one who exceeds the boundaries of just good.
Putting our money into CDs (Certificate of Deposit) can be considered good, but trading the Forex, we can all agree (well, those who are profitable, that is) is even better. The latter is how I feel about fti and his trainings/method.
I always thought that a "Pro" trader was one who traded the higher timeframes (overnight/long-term), who made the 100 - 200 pip moves, who put stop losses into place, but I now know better and realize that's a misnomer.
I don't believe most people ever truly get to meet a "Pro" forex tier 1 bank trader, thus never get the behind-the-scenes look/info of how it's actually done.
We have been very fortunate to have such a person in our midst who is truly what is known as a "Pro" trader (aka "the Big Guys"). Not only was he a Pro trader, but he moved up the ranks to some very high positions in his industry. You can't be mediocre and get to those positions, I can tell ya.
For me, the only thing that matters is RESULTS (as this too, I have mentioned before in this thread). I cannot say I have actually seen any other "Pro" traders' results, but I have seen fti's and I doubt very many traders can match his skill.
But, this has already been mentioned several times in this thread, so I should not have to repeat it. Also, fti's head will get too big for his own good, haha.
fti has said that it is very hard to train veteran traders, because they are too stuck in their set ways and bad habits to change their mindset and way of thinking. I think maybe that is why luSan is succeeding as well as he is, because he was totally open to being trained and didn't let any bad habits (if he had any) sabotage him.
New traders will probably make better traders than veterans with fti's method, because they are trainable.
Unfortunately, it's the "Scorpion" story for many who cannot surrender themselves to grasping the powerful treasures that have been shared with us. fti's results should speak for themselves.
Everyone who reads this thread needs to ask themselves ... am I happy with my current trading results? Am I as profitable as I'd like to be?
If the answer to those two questions is "NO" then make that change for yourself. Switch your gears and let go of all your bad habits and old trading style, because obviously it's not working for you. Stop sabotaging yourself!!
However, if you are happy with your results, then keep doing what you're doing.
If you've made it through reading this entire thread, then at this point, those of us who want to be better traders rather than just good traders, need to stop resisting and start accepting what is being taught here by fti so that we can consider ourselves "Pro" Traders or at least wannabes, anywho! : (it's for our own good, really it is!)
Hi Leighsww,
Thanks.
Like Voltare said (I believe), its hard to break the chains that people ( whats the word) reviers.
So To each their own.
Hey, I've sent comments emails to you, hit the sack, already?
what i found most dreadful and unappealing is gambling, please in what way can one trade without being referred to as a gambler. in all honesty, i agree with all the fact tabled on the above subject.
Hi yinkulo,
In life most activities, including crossing the road is a gamble.
But if one trades with brains and manage the MO, MM and capital well, then its basically business.
Of course if one chose to be reckless and find excuses otherwise.
So unless one is trading OPM, then the issue is with self.
I am sure I will not allow the cat, to look after my baby,and the stars as well.
Good to see this thread alive and well after a short break.
I've been in threads that have reached 2000 or 3000 pages and people were asked to read the whole thing so I don't think it's too much to ask to read this one. It may come to a point where there is too much clutter but probably not for a while. I am intending to re-read it slowly and I'm prepared to pick out the important lessons and put it into a document if fti thinks this is worthwhile and is prepared to proof read it. What do you think fti?
Hi Zoran,
Nice to see you back.
Hey just save the whole thingy and read la
How would you know whats important and what not.
If you did you probably won't need to reread.
Did you have a nice easter?
regards
Actually saving to read is a bad idea.
There are files and stuff posted, best just read from thread.
Then print what you think is important.
But reading should be from thread.I think.
For me I won't save all this junk, I live it.
Actually I feel a little sorry, for the new comers.
Its for them like in historical testing. Ther's no time to pause, there's no brain process, there's no patience and awu training. Its very different.
Ask those who went thru the process here. Its very different.
So if this was published in book and sold , it does swat for the readers.
Only mind fart. Sorry for bad, but its the truth.
ACK!!! Hey, watch the spelling!! I don't WIPE anybody!!! The word is WHIP , WHIP!!!
What do you mean by "already"?!! It was dang late for me!!! Sheesh!!
Hey Hi Leighsww,
So sorry la,
Haha , my sides hurts from laughing.
I'll check my enrollment for spelling classes, but really its dificult that so many kids are staring at me.
Yeah I just realised that, I forgot, I thought you would be trading as usual until 3 NY time as during the simulations.
Sorry to disturb,
But what are you doing replying, The bed bugs bite?
Never...No dark side...thoughts and memories...I stick to my MO and mindset...I read that Encyclopedia of Pattern twice...I diggested every single charts...and I came to the conclusion... that I could not do it...In my initial days with forex I was playing with triangles, flags, and penants....I failed...
No...No change...As far as I am concerned when I trade it is PA, me, and myself...I do not draw a single line nor I have time for it...How to do it when I am in the middle of the storm!...and Why to change what nicely is working?
I love when the dance is pure noise, just rock and roll...then is supply and demand...similar to early this morning... 67 pis in 25 min....to easy...but dangerous because if too much self confidence then the dragon comes and feed on me....
Regards,
Hi Lusan,
Yeah ok.ok, these disco junkies.
Good for you,
By the way have you enlisted for spelling school as well.
67 pis, in 25 minutes, goosh, you better get some diapers.
the walk to the loo, sure would disrupt the trading!.LOL just jesting.
regards
Gosh, what a day,
I get Zoran sounding like me.
As I await an email from Leighsww,
Then I receive an email that reads,
"Some People Shouldn't Reproduce" instead, Got a shock.
LOL http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...080325-01.html
well. its all in the timing. Must be the effects of the laughing at Leighsww, spilling over.
Sorry , that I have been away. But it was out of my hands.
I see that much is developing, it is much within that should be expected, as the skills develop. I however I like to caution that you must ,"return to basics" if you find that the forward movement, does not contribute to productivity.
I believe many here have a good head on their shou;der and will be able to navigate your development par excellence, as you progress.
I also realise that some of yo are begining to uncover some "hiddens" as you reread the thread. Although, I will never be giving you my MO in totality, I shall however guide you in your educatonal reaearch and quest when able. Mostly all had been given, just that it may not be obvious.
So if you do have questions, do ask. Apart from myself , I believe all here probably have their own stance to the issues, apart from ego trip reponses, I believe all can benefit from honest and polite debate.
As I shall be catching up on the reading the thread, I shall be replying to important questions, when I am able to.
regards
For those who may feel that this is stressful or too difficult.
Well all I can say is that most thngs in life seems to be very difficult , but for those who had given good thoughs and reasearch , then it becomes very simple and second nature.
It is alway most difficult when on the learning process, as many will have to reset and educate themselves new mindsets. Moreover some of you are going thru thought processes that took me some years to arrive at.
So in effects you are very intelligent, to be able to compress all the years of knowledge.
And for those who think that this is dangerous, I can only direct you to the risk disclosure staements that you sign as you undertake thi s endevour.
Green_David, jest1081, zenseven, luSan, and all well wishers, Its nice to be back at FF. I am good, considering the circumstances.
Lusan, I am not sure, but from glancing thru some postings, I believe that someone slamed into the wall , huh.
What happened?
If some details can be posted , I would like to dissect to examine the situation, as I have not been current to market sequenses.
Anyway remember not to trade against the trend, also be weary when there are strong impluse waves. those are prilimanry signs to possible change in market undercurrents.
I am catching up with the thread which I missed, more coming into radar soon.
regards
PS:Lusan, not too much wine yet, but surely the floor should be sweeped, LOL.
BabeFX,alexfot,Northpro,seeit,Zoran ,skypeters, et al
I hope all are well.
Thanks for the kind words.
It's nice to be kicking again. Got good pips today.1st day trading after a long spell.
There are some info about the market structure development that I think is important for traders, only that it may attaract unwelcome attention that I have not given it out. Let me see how I can do that without rocking the boat(market).
There's also some wiping for some of you , to get you back to basics. It be forthcoming as we troddle along.
Hey friend, the train didn't came to hit you.
You actually chosed to test if you were invincible.LOL.
In fact, from what you are saying, you ran into the train, not the other way around.
Better be watchful of that scorpion inside, huh.
This can happen, sometimes, normally when we become bored and complacent as we become too profitable.The recklessness for change, was probably to break monotomy.
Nevermind , remember the lesson, otherwise it will come to thrill you again.
Another issue , is that, many dealers tend to get more rigid and hard in the arteries in their MO over time. This is because of boredom and overconfidence. So do watch out for that as well.
The reality is, this will happen subtlely, and creeps into your MO unnoticed.
It is nice to have someone do a reality check, once awhile.
Try not to be so rigid in your "surrender" conditions.
What you can do (if this is important issue to you) is to listen to your own conviction, when situations become too uncomfortable, Listen to your instincts.
and mark it relative to your normal daily P&L over time as I mentioned before.
A good benchmark would be 2X your average norm P&L.
There are some gurus that benchmark it to 2 SD (standard deviations) of charted performance
(if you are mathematically apped.) Remember that you are not a BANK.
When the coping with steadyness becomes a problem, you have no choice but to cut it loose and bite the bullet and take the pain.
I personally prefer to peg to market dance to determine my response instead.
Tip is to watch out for impulse volitility.
When the volitility maintains or increases when direction of the thrust is changed,
then rescue is red flaged and must be attempted with caution.
The probability of a trend change comes into radar. When thishappens readjust your MM skew. Formulate spirals within spirals. In this case skew-in.
Whereas , if the volatility maintains or decreases, and the impulse is still intact, then,
aggressive rescue has stronger chances to succeed.
Rigidity in ability to risk should only be conditionally to financial inability or
when such is beyond the capacity of mindset to cope.
However one is always free to decide
which frame of mind is reasonable and workable by your own tolerance factor.
There is no rules in stone , as each technique has is ownstrengths and weakness,
what I suggested is basically "best practice" based on personal experience.
I did noticed that there was some spliting of hairs on this issue ,
maybe some may like to bring their outlook to the table for some deliberation.
The ball i in your court!
regards
@piphitman. chiang, sitoca,
all is as well as can be. Thanks for your concern, friends.
I hope you are trading well.
PS for thos in the market , today is going to be a difficult day,
the USD is testing uninhabitable grounds, be nimble, and wind down risk.
if you can. Just my view.
My general impression from reading the responses in this thread was that you and sitoca, Lusan and to a certain xtent Dutchangel, shreem and a many others, and of course Leighsww and coming on stream Zoran just to nam a few, are quite on the ball, in terms of the concept embeded in my presentation here.
That a few of you got caught in the wreak, prompts me that the sudden surge of volitility in the negative was probably a shadowless knife that swing into form from the blues to entrap the trend ride. It would be interesting if you could post the section of the chart to see if I can make any sense of the analytics then, although it is from hindsight.
I am glad that you held true and have made adjustments to regain stance.
regards.
PS: One example of these shadowless knifes in Forex is CB activity at odd times. These are tools in their strategy tool boxes. I had ever intervene markets for CBs during Far East Lunch times. If You were a trader leaving exposures during lunch time and met acivities of this nature, It can give you a whole new perspective, in considering when it's safe not to babysit.
Basically, like you ,mentioned, "from market actions/movement"
coupled with some battlefield experience and pattern recognition.
party well.
@ Jairo,
Oh, you must watch the mindset and ambition.
My feeling is with piccolo, you must control that greed.
I believe that you must have your personal reasons, nevertheless,the greed factor was too strong.
From hindsight you may recognise it, but in trading we have to suppress it in foresight. we call that prudence and discipline.
It was small money, but I guess the lesson is priceless.
Do better next time, my friend.
ADD: You touched on a very important point about over-gearing. That's one big killer of many good traders. The secondary impact it has on traders using stop loss orders, is a killer concoction.
as you have read, I am one of the few who had a train wreck too. lol. But all is well now. I still apply the method albeit with smaller risk. I also have decided to reduce my skews and thus far I hadn't had a loss from then.
I would also like to consult your personal opinion on using ticks. I have realised that tick (i use 200) has a tendency to show better technical price forms and movements, this is of course just my own opinion, lol the never ending search, yes but im serious...heeeheee. I can load some charts if you'd like but that will have to be a little later coz im at work right now.
My approach has been geared towards timing my entries, and if im caught in the wrong side, i'll allow the market to stretch and then conduct a quick rescue, once that is settled, i'll re-assess if my position should be maintained or abandoned. Yeap back to basics and that has been most helpful to me in my trading thus far. Thanks!
regards
jest
Hi jest,
almost missed this one.
When you mentioned tics, I presume, you are talking about futures trading.
Well, foundationally, my feeling is that the contract sizes there are a little too large for smaller cap traders, more inline for corporate risk management.
It needs a bigger cap to manage the skews, as the snowballing is from a larger base with rounding off characteristics. If you were well funded, ratio wise, I do not see much problem. Try not to stay too rigid with absolute tics. As you become more experienced you will realise the power of flexibility. Moreover futures FX contracts trade reciprocal quotes and therefore a tic is much larger than the pip, theredore increasing quote spread ranges, not withstanding arbitrage overruns.
regards
PS: Futures exchanges realising this structural weakness , are begining to introduce mini contracts. As these are not across the board yet. I guess it will take some time for it becoming widely implimented. Nevertheless, the spot FX's flexibility is hard to curcumvent.
Hi All,
Sorry friends, today I am tired, so I'll try to answer some questions tomorrow, if suits
regards
Below is my all time favourite.
Born Free (lyrics)
Born free, as free as the winds blow.
As free as the grass grows,
Born free to follow your heart.
Live free, and beauty surrounds you.
The world still astounds you,
Each time you look at the stars
Stay free, where no walls divides you,
You're free as a roaring tide,
So, there's no need to hide.
Born free, and life is worth living,
And only worth living,
Cause you're born Free.
creator's cage.
--------------------
by fti. copynorighted
In the begining,
0 was all, and all was 0.
; For freedom from that cage,
; 0 created the universe,
;Then 0 created all things,
; all things was set FREE, to create itself and multiply.
; that it was not caged in; in itself again.
; 0 then created itself
; and set it free, in it's own creation,
; no longer the all; to be free.
; since then, all that itself creates, other than itself (offsprings)
: is the cage, to box it in again.
Think about the things that you created.
Think about all the things that mankind has created.
Think about the ever changing cages that it has created to box itself in.
Think about the mind's creations, the laws, the systems, the protocols, the institutions.
Then think about nature and its everlastingness.
Nature is everlasting because it is not the all and caged in.
Those others that 0 created, it has only created themselves and multiplied.
So be careful of the things that you may like to create, other than yourselfs (offsprings)
Be mindful, that it is not a box to cage you in.
Free your mind ! Do not be decieve, that it is that which created all.
Can creation be greater than that which created it?
Should you send yourself to school, or should you send your computer instead?
Be mindful of the cages in your mind.
Sorry this is a bit off topic but, how did trading all start for you? Im just finishing off high school and i really really want to do this for a living. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
Hi M-H Trader,
In a nut shell, I stated after Junior college , as a kadet in military flight school,
but was clipped during jet conversion. Left that behind and took up a low pay job in futures broking, until I was discovered by my mentor in a bank. Since then I have sored high in the trading arena until retirement recently. Of course as in life, there were highs and lows.
And just before I go to bed (and finish off my wine).
1=(self) destruction - the end of
0=creation (purpose) - the beginning of
--------------------------------------------------
Now we all need to do something important. We need to tune into the vibrations of the universe and help ourselves by contacting fti. There is an important message waiting for him.
That message was sent to him about 2 months ago. There is something stopping him and we need him to get over it and learn the message. If we succeed then he will be here to help us.
The message we need to send is that there is purpose so no reason for self-destruction. Read the message but know the purpose!
Hi Zoran,
As everything in life, I can only nudge you lightly.
Because if I pushed, and you were not in stance, You could trip and hurt something. So I will guide as best I can, you would have to do the dancing and watching out for your own rhythm and mindset.
Moreover it is crazy, to put my trading protocol in public. I can only help you with the concepts, the protocol, you have to find it within you.
LOL, I'm not even drinking any wine and I understand completely what Zoran is saying
He is referring to fti's health and the cause of his recent incident with it.
---------
Welcome back, fti!
Hi Leighsww,
Its nice to be back.
I hear you,but copd is not something that can be reversed, so only onwards, But I ll try to watch the dirty habit, now on pipes , it may mitigate the time left.LOL.
You flew the sf260, my senior? Looks like you cleared basic training phase. Good thing you were attritiated, we might not see this thread if you were a pilot.
Hi Barak,
Sorry, was on different colours, did by oil burners elsewhere.
Was young then and F5Es were just coming in. I completed, ground school,soloshrs, and IR, but for jet convert hitted a quota listing, and couldn't find alternative source for training. Could have gone rotor, but back then there were not much scope for that for fixed wings boys. Htting the lows , I went different direction in life.
On pipes..... I have the same problem. Replace the habit with something else. When the urge came up, I immediately try to do something else to stop thinking about it. The key is the awareness to know that you have the urge and then replace it with something else. Once its out of the mind the urge will go away as well. Keep yourself busy to replace the habit.
Works for me....almost anyway. Can't help myself though when I have the occasion alcohol. It goes hand in hand...
Hi sitoca,
no offense taken, Had been on the chews, patch, titbits.
Somehow when the fights gets interesting , hand reaches out for the fix.
Had been on and off the wagon.
Discipline problem mostly, (the more discipline , the harder head , I guess) Problem is that this was the fix during hard times, seems like a friend. Anyways, my grandpa (motherside), he's a rubber farmer, fit as a fiddle, still with us and hitting 100 years soon. Doesn't do the bottle nor smokes. But when I look at his quality of life , am quite sad. My dad's shares the same bad habits I have, he went home in his mid 70's. Didn't suffer long, although had some inconveniences though. So as a matter of fact , If I can hit mid 70's , would be much glad. Having the diabetic gene doesn't help though nevertheless I stay optimistic. LOL.
Advice on how to stop smoking from someone who has not stopped is not very useful I think.
However, I was a smoker for about 17 years and my wife a little longer. After reading a book we both stopped and have not picked one up since. It has been about 5 years now.
Also, I recommended the book to my friend who was a heavy smoker and he stopped after reading it. His mother, who is not very good with English also read it (her first English book) and stopped (after smoking for around 30 years).
Now I have not felt any better since stopping and all I can say is if anyone has the desire, you only have to read this book. It encourages you to keep smoking while reading it and when finished, you have two choices - continue to smoke or stop so it's not like you have anything to lose. You can only gain.
Anyway, the book is called "Easyway to stop smoking" by Allen Carr.
I must admit that I have a deep concern for fti's health so I emailed him the book and will purchase it (for him) if he decides to read it. It was my present to him for the effort he has put into this thread.
Slight hangover today.
Hi Zoran,
Thanks vv much, I had peruse the ebook you gave on smoking, at the end of the day, Its I that have to decide to put the old friend to rest. Lets see. Still hard to put down, light wiskey, smokes and masterful music. The scorpion in me.
For your hangover , I recommend that you go get the bottle out and throw in a gulp , nothing works like poison on poison.
regards
This markets are getting to be a pain isn't it. Hard to get too much pips on. still dragging its feet.LOL many crosses still dominating play. Patience , the virtue.
Does anyone seriously know someone who has stopped with gum, patches, etc... and has not started again? It doesn't work and I can tell you that from first hand (as it tends only to be temporary). People tend to start for the same reasons they always have.
We have come to this thread and are guided by a master and have had great insight into the world of successful trading but we are aware of the fallacy. There is also a fallacy about smoking and that book explains it very well.
We can ignore the trading fallacy and continue using triggers in our trading but will likely fail miserably. The same goes for smoking, ignore the fallacy and you'll continue to believe it.
Here is a message from fti to fti:
Think about the things that you created.
Think about all the things that mankind has created.
Think about the ever changing cages that it has created to box itself in.
So that's about it.
fti, are you saying that you have read the whole book? From cover to cover? Please confirm.
Hi Zoran,
Sorry my bad, I did, like many here, glanced into, then Oh, I see that, I know that already, sort of attitute. You see, life is winding down a lot for me, slowing down too much, and these vices had become like the last strings I am hanging on to , that, may resemble anything close to what life was like for a long time.
I try to whip myself a bit and reading finish the book you gave, but I guess I am a hard head too. Losing lifeways scares me more than losing life. And like many, I guess I cannot change much, hanging on to the same old ways. Difficult, for old dogs to learn new tricks, huh. Imperfection, the mysteries of life.
Lets see If I can find new hobbies to replace the bad habits. Gotta find new hobbies! Thats the reason why I am listening to my young boy collection, now that just prompted me to take out my eartha kitt collection! LOL, the cabaret days.
regards
On the market front, I am listening closely to the ground, its coiling again for somebiggie event. And am trying to stay unengaged, lest I be caught when the big waves catch me pants down.
Hi All,
Dutchangel,
oops, seems cannot be dancing already.
One lesson, if your market access, is lost due to acts of god, call in and get out, can't dance in the dark, however good dancer. Now you probably lost rhythm and mindset. However you try, its hard. To save that baby, you will have to commit huge resources and will probably not be dancing close to market. So seems you have a hard decision ahead, You gotta risk huge to save that baby, if you wanna come out intact. So if the pain is not leathal, bite the bullet, if you must. Then start all over again to built the ant hill. You done it before you can do it again. Now you should be a little wiser to the risk.
The problem was small exposure , thats why you let it slip from you, had it been large, you probably would have done the necessary. However if you think that you can afford the resources to save this baby, be prepared for a death match. But remember , you must dance. And watch the skew, ease off , and don't try to get it all back in one go. rebuiltd the rhythm, just get back enough pips to feel confidence and dance the rhythm.
It seems that the market has lost impluse thrust, so try to get back from signs it gives. Do not think from position, think from market signs. This is vv important. Do not think from position.
If you can afford the lost , bite the bullet, get the book squared and rebuild. This is the best way, to recover. Do not sit on hope, thats what got you into trouble after the access lost, in the first place.
Give it careful thought, your decision is critical now. Finding the rhythm may be a little difficult. The more you can think, without the position bias creeping in, the faster the recovery. You have to find a way to rid the feelings before attempting to tame the market again. Talk to someone close. Is there any traders in your family,seek second opinion on your frame of mind.
Otherwise , if you are mindset tough, go into death match mindset, and fight your way out, make sure the financials are sufficient, the snowballing will get scary, so think carefully. Consider your financial position if rescue fails. If rescue improves the postion do it, once you do not feel it improving, then your mindset is not in sync, you must then cut loose and take the pain.
Let us know your frame of mind.
Reminder 10 big fig out of court is deep "dead in the water" situation.
regards
Are you prepared to do death match? evaluate your financials.
Were you prepared for this, if you are then you can fight.
Otherwise "Run away , fight another day to rebuild."
I know you will have the "murphy ghosts" distrubing you.
All the what if questions.
Pay them no attention, you have to evaluate your status.
Decide to do what you have to do.
Put it in action, No regrets what ever the outcome.
It s just battle decisions.
OK, now I understand.
You are a good trader.
What you are doing is GOOD.
You have strong character. Focus now on how you would like to handle the situation. I believe you are on the driver seat, just listen to yourself.
"Financially i can afford the loss and I think i resigned myself to the loss emotionally a while back."
This is masterful mindset, kudos to you.
USD strength seems developing, trying to timing into window.
Staying light footed and nimble. 3 kingdom intact strong USD.
Just trying. no strong impluses convictions yet.
Still looking for more signs.
regards
oops losing the window, reset to wait again.
The sweeps are both directions and vv deep,
Have feeling that the impluse is not this week,
with far east out on monday , dueto wesak day.
follow trhu may not be there.
Now just watching for window, which is not expected to come,
nevertheless, the task is to follow to see if can find it.
and back to musical escapade.LOL
Hi Jairo,
Thats not true.
Have been out of market for a time.
I gotta feel my way back for the rhythm,
Problem is market is in wide sideways sweeps and i am trying to flow into trend which is not there.
Under normal dance, I would be trying into the swings, butnot until I get into the market form.
So I will look like cow singing to the moon, until I get into mkt form.
Not making , 1 minute sequences.
Reading 5 min building of form and trying to seek window of form, which for the moment is doing both ways yet.
Dailys are non indicative, and short charts are doing the chicken(borrowed from leighsww)
oil.. Goldman released a report, they probably were long..
Hi piccolo,
I never listen to broker bs. They are good story writers. Mostly predictive attempts. but never accountable for what they publish. Good names never publish reports unless they have issues. These people publish reports by deadline for reading materials to entertain customers.
regards
this markets are liquidity dead for the mom. Mostly two way sweeps. So I am gonna waste time on real, music entertainment for tonight.
cu
Hi All,
The silk road in trouble.
This is what you get for atrocities against the innocent.
First in Myanmar , now in Si chuan ( Chinese silk road ).
If man thinks they have the power to create and destroy.
The almight has proven a point clearly. If he willed, then all is no match.
If man thinks he has power to kill the innocent, it is still no match to what the almight can do in sacrificing of innocent lambs.
Hear the lessons, repent, and be filled with the spirit.
The message is clear, this is no coincidence.
Return to the heart and help those who survived the ordeal in both locations, as best you can do. Remember , mankind is given the chance, to show what you are truly.
Do not just morn, do something, anything.
Arise keepers of creation.
M't:3:8: Bring forth therefore fruits meet for repentance:
M't:3:9: And think not to say within yourselves, We have Abraham to our father: for I say unto you, that God is able of these stones to raise up children unto Abraham.
M't:3:10: And now also the axe is laid unto the root of the trees: therefore every tree which bringeth not forth good fruit is hewn down, and cast into the fire.
I speak loud and I will be target. http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/2008052...7-231650b.html And When You Do Alms..
M't:6:1: Take heed that ye do not your alms before men, to be seen of them: otherwise ye have no reward of your Father which is in heaven.
M't:6:2: Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:3: But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth:
M't:6:4: That thine alms may be in secret: and thy Father which seeth in secret himself shall reward thee openly. And When you Pray..
M't:6:5: And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:6: But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.
M't:6:7: But when ye pray, use not vain repetitions, as the heathen do: for they think that they shall be heard for their much speaking.
M't:6:8: Be not ye therefore like unto them: for your Father knoweth what things ye have need of, before ye ask him.
M't:6:9: After this manner therefore pray ye: Our Father which art in heaven, Hallowed be thy name.
M't:6:10: Thy kingdom come.
Thy will be done in earth, as it is in heaven.
M't:6:11: Give us this day our daily bread.
M't:6:12: And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors.
M't:6:13: And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil:
For thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory, for ever. Amen. When you Forgive..
M't:6:14: For if ye forgive men their trespasses, your heavenly Father will also forgive you:
M't:6:15: But if ye forgive not men their trespasses, neither will your Father forgive your trespasses.
When you fast..
M't:6:16: Moreover when ye fast, be not, as the hypocrites, of a sad countenance: for they disfigure their faces, that they may appear unto men to fast. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:17: But thou, when thou fastest, anoint thine head, and wash thy face;
M't:6:18: That thou appear not unto men to fast, but unto thy Father which is in secret: and thy Father, which seeth in secret, shall reward thee openly.
M't= The Book of Matthew, A testament of the Lord. aka The Gospel of the bible, aka Injin of Muhamad's reference, peace be upon him.
When God's sun rises it shine on all, the innocent as well as the guilty.
When God's rain come on to the earth, it rains on the innocent and well as the guilty. All is good and all is bad. For all man has sinned and fall short the glory of its Creator.
All is good and all is evil.
For how could man see what good there is , if man cannot see that which is evil. The price to see that which is good and evil is so expensive that, some of creation paid the highest price that can be paid that all may see it. That the sacrificial meat be laid upon your table daily, and yet no realisation's of the essence of life.
Let not the sacrificial lessons fall on the deaf and blind.
Cain, put away your weapons that kills your brother, Abel.
Cain shall create the lesson.
Abel shall pay the sacrificial price for the lesson.
Seth must immortalise the lesson his brothers taught.
: referenced the books of Creation by Moses( Old Testament ),aka the Torah.
regards
My prayer and meditation for those lost and those in pain.
From what you are telling me, I am afraid.
You can double your account monthly, so if all goes well, you will in effects be looking at 1200% returns annually. To be absolutely frank , when I was trading for bank, I used no leverage, and did ROI of about 40+% returns on cap annually, and I was already king of the hill.But I would pale in comparison to you.
My feeling is if that you are experiencing drawdown due to your extreme leverage as you pointed out. Even if you doubled your cap quarterly, even Warrent B would have to kowtow to you. So maybe if you would reanalyse your exposure, it may help.
One of my MO is that I do take high risk at the beginning of the book year, then ease off on exposure as the book makes money , so as to make it impossible for the market to get me red. But of course this was done to protect the room.
You already is super performing, so therefore you have to decide how you wanna scale your exposure.
Another way is to improve on your market form analysis and to try to fit your size exposures in line with you aspirations. Try to sustain form and scale back when your performance begins to wane. Really its for you to figure it out.You are in effects doing very well, so in reality you have made the cut. Its that you have to find your equilibrium and forge sustained profitability instead of the whippy rides in P&L. Try play around with your leverage and book exposures to find comfort zone.
The second problem with rescue operation is that, some times(not all the time), I found out, it would be better to try rescue(or re-entry in my opinion) after 100 pips away for EUR/USD. It is very difficult to capitalize a 20 pips movement when trading against intra-day trend.
Any suggestion?
Thanks.
You are about right, based on my experience, the requirement to zoom out for fight is about the 100 to 150 pips threshold.
Try to only commit to large scale skews only if your analysis requires it absolutely, You don't have to make a battle out of every skirmish, this is esp if you had taken good profits already. You may like to stay flatter with the skews and expected profits in this scenerio.
Thanks for the compliment. You confirmed that the fast dance is possible for other people beside lusan.
I am not so systematic...I just watch the 30 s and the 5M and decide what to do after the trend is biased by the 1D and 15M...does it work?...It seems so..you obtain similar results to the one that I got by my carefully watching the 5M and 30S...about 0.5 % ROE...and this happens very very fast...WARNING: you heart might break if you are not ready for fast action. There is no much time to think...anyone who want to dance like this better practice a lot...Avoid my style if your finger are slow..I am still exploring its potential and risks.
today I showed some people at my previous work how I forex trade and they were in shock when I demonstrated how easy is to trade for 0.5 % ROE/hour...and that is a trouble...because fti shows how to do this, winning seems too easy and we slowly might fall into the invinsibility trap!...I did once and I am still trying to figure out how not do to it again...
Since I just became a full time forex trading...OOPS!!...until I find another job..I will see how I do...I will be trading 5 days/week with a 0.5 % ROE daily target...I just funded my initial account with 10k...my target will be $25/day and then $50/day...That is not much to ask, right? Just enough to make a living while I learn more about forex and find another job....
Who knows? I might just do forex for the rest of my life...we will see...
I wonder what the chief, fit, would say...damn it! I love forex trading...I had too much vodka!:blushing:
Regards,
Hey Lusan,
Don't think negative. You lost nothing except the chains that restrained you. They are the ones who lost a good mind.
Get on with it, Things works in mysterious ways.
Decide what you wanna do, and get on, don't give it too much mind.
And don't go drown sorrows on the bottle, create bad.
Drink when you are happy or very very scared. Be like me. LOL
@johnnykanoo
Thank you for your kind words.
Hope you will reflect on the study and be a prudent trader.
@ Green_David,
The skew is still in infancy experimental stage.
Generally We are working on the multiples of 1,1,2,3,5,8 skew with the base of 2 and the rescue sequence of inward skew to two attempts of the higher (eg 5= 2&3, 8=3&5 ) with residue as attack to two of lower. Although it is comfortable the ROI is not expected to be high, as we are working on 5X on deposits and gearing of positions margining at 50:1 (the max allowed in Sg). There is much scope for improvement, But for the moment we are comfortable and reading at 100% accuracy. Will be looking to tweak the exposures , when we are able to see the downside risk possibilities, when it happens.
If we are able to be stable on the 100% performance , we will review the exposure this December, in line with the annualised volitility . We are not deluded to the fact that the 100% performance is due to the short tenure, so I can say that there will be tweaks.
For each we must find our own equilibrium. Try not to duplicate each other , as all are different in many aspects. My personally feeling is 10K USD is too tight for proper MM, nevertheless each of us have to work within our own financials.
Yeah, I know what you are saying. Politics , creeping into the working of relief orgs. But like I said a bad govt is better than none,. Similarly, having bad relief work orgs are better than none. Just don't give money, the poor souls don't need money , only necessities for living.Money is a bad medium of relief, will often go to wrong channels.
For your questions.
1. Orders don't move markets, only trade matches can move the markets. The most orders movements can do is to confuse market makers who are looking at the internal order flows.The impact of removal of trades volume may create high volitility in illiquid markets at best for short time frames. Standing orders have no real impact on the market , only on some participating parties, esp bucketshops.
Frankly I don't believe your classmate has knowledge on the workings nor structure of the forex markets. May be you should share your documents from the Fed Banks with him for his education.
"that is illegal to hedge your costumers positions"
What do you mean?
For discussion only. The fibo skew is nice, since if the price have fibo retracement, the net book will break even. However, for me, I changed into an easier way, say, the base is 2, first, tester/scout 1, if I think my trade direction is right, I will add 3, and later at the end of wave 2 ideally, add another 2. Since if I add at the end of wave 4, I increased the risk, since wave 5 is not stable.
Also, for discussion only, the general opinion on add-on is the pyramid style, i.e. as the more prices go on in favor of the positions, the less positions added. This is of course in contrast to your skew way. I am also not clear about this.
Thanks. Best regards to you also. Xie xie.
David
Hi Green_David,
The skew for a ride must be as you mentioned a pyramid, after attack. Otherwise you would be drawing your cost average too close to market to manage possible retracements.It is the inward skew that I mentioned. Therefore we are the same.You can achieve this by moving left or right on the fibo table.
The sequence of outward skew is for rescue, and as I had mentioned is minimum of a fibo expansion, but of course one can front end weight it or backend weight it or hump weight it as well flat or stepped ladder to flat weighted.
Be aware that each methodology has its own characteristics of risk snowball effect and impact on P&L. This is very important to be suited to comfortable financial capacity and adapted to the accuracy factor ( market read) of the trader.
What you described is a hump front weighted sequense.
Another point I like to clearify is that the base mentioned is the "scout".
I now understand why you listen all the funny music!.. The focus required for trading...demands...Ennya and Loreena Mckennit...indeed.....sooth ing music while we watch the action!
No alcohol- it is not good for my trading...only on weekend...
Freedom...scary...I just danced my style for less than 1 hr and closed the day with my daily profit target...I am free for the day...Is this life!?
Thanks for your teachings.
Hi Lusan,
LOL. yeah sometimes I wonder as well. Just my bad ears are so "audiophiled" that I spend a small fortune on it. We all have our vices. I seem to have more than my share.
Well , my friend, life is what we make of it. There's no manual. So we learn as we go along.The Almighty gave us the freedom of choice. What ever we do, it cannot be all wrong or all right, moreover our earthly time span is finite so it really doesn't matter. Good doesn't last forever, neither does bad.
Well, very nice you confirmed what I am thinking about add-ons.
The outward skew for rescue, it makes sense, since the pullback/retracement is always smaller.
It is my first time to ever hear about 'front end weight it or backend weight it or hump weight', can you explain these to me using some figures.
I felt 1-3-2 style as you described as hump weight makes me more comfortable.
The meaning of base doesn't matter, it is OK. My tester/scout size follows my rule, say, if it has -100 pips loss, the book loss shall be less than 10%, or 5% better. Of course, controlling of position size and watch myself for the scorpion is important. To me, make profits out of volitility less than 50 pips are too difficult.
My suffering threshhold is 10%~20%, of course it is high, in the future, if the capital reaches to some level, I will reduce the size. Risk adverse.
These questions I wanted to ask you before. Luckily you came back!
Zai ci gan xie.
David
David,
It just mean that, if you weighted it front , you are very confident on your initial form read. If you weighted it on the back end you are no so confident of your dance but would be aggressive in rescuing your book if needed be.
As you mentioned you like the hump. Which means that you are very aggressive, and have a strong option to abandon the scout if things didin't work out so well, but would like to press when he is well positioned. And that you are not too concerned to press on trend runs, and like to conservatively position when on runs.
Basically the terminology and strategy is a derivation of yield curve shapes. ie managing money market expectancies.
If you had not noticed, if you master my presentation, you would find that you are well position to tackle congestions ( which is 70% of market sequenses) as well as trends, although the basis of analysis is on trends. The nimbleness it affords youallows you to maneuver from one mode to the other easily provided your ego is not in the driver seat and you are in non predictive mindset. Funny that no one noticed it. Of course the prerequisite is that you have to be re analysing your position and constantly re-mapping yourself against the terrain.
Like I have very strongly stressed all the time,that any analyst , mutating his methodology to be predictive, have flew over the cookoo's nest and had become irrational and unstable in his mind. After a little time they become incoherent to themselves. Most of these have little skill and are heavily dependant on hope of past performance, of which the disclosure statement of past performance, will quickly put them to rest.
Well I guess that many believes that the historical and past performance disclosure statement is supposed to be a joke or was just put to traders for fun. Then the jokes on them.
Remember always , that, the market is alive and multi dimensional in its variables which will always affect its behaviour, thereby to tame it , you would need to use a very superior tool , that can adapt to it's millions of colouration, our mind.
regards
PS: I guess one of the reasons I am very attached to music and sound is its variance in colouration, which does keep my mind warmed up and active. Do you think in colours?
When I say a horse, think about a horse. You see form and shape but is it in colour?
Also , what language do you think in?
I sometimes have difficulty in this area. For different subjects , I think in different languages. Thats why mostly I am difficult to understand. Things get lost in transit. This the reason, why I keep editing my posting. Thioughts come in pieces also recently I am getting very forgetful.
Hi textor,
Glad that I could help.
Thank you for your kind words.
@ spotless1212,
Sorry , that the thread is long, basically this just a discussion thread, so as we chat, the longer it will get.I hope you can find the needle that you need as you dig thru this haystack.
As for pivots, I only use the hourly average (12sma on 5 min charts ) as a pivot guide, I Don't even plot it on the chart.Of any value it is comprised of more data points as opposed to traditional pivots plottings, If I understand your question correctly. It sort of give me a feel of the sigma,(rate of change) equilibrium, which of course changes over time as well. So really, its a moving equlibrium, if you like. Doesn't do much for the dance. I do look at it if I lost my rhythm, to try to decide of what speed, I should try to retime as I zoom out in time frame. Otherwise have little analytical value to me.
fti, when you have time, maybe you can post some scenario you have taken in the market. playing either rescue or attack or both.
Sorry , I am too engaged to do this again. May be you may like to figure it out from this thread slowly.
when you boil it down to math then adding to position with increased size terribly reduces your win rate (attack). doing the same on a loosing position (in red but not dead in water).. will increase the win rate allowing you to trade 100% (rescue).
I think you are mistaken here. Read my responses to Green_David on attack piramids, as he calls it, just a few postings above.
I haven't found the equilibrium for myself yet.. trial and error will teach me.
If you are in attack mode and fully loaded then it is very important to dump the load if you hit a train (even book a loss).
Yes, If you hit a train as you attack , the positions will quickly be "dead in the water", the MO is to unload the attack bulk, and dance with the scout and rescue load to recover, adding rescue to recover some losses from the attack failure if opportunities arises. (damage control) Turning in this situation is very dangerous, as you may be caught at extreme of run, and if that was to happen you will be trapped between both the bull and bear "dead in the water" predicament.
I really enjoy reading this thread and I am learning as we go on.
Late friday I did a small experiment (feeding the scorpion in me). Opened positions on 19 pairs, one scout per each. This was like snowballing my mindset for trading. Even tho it went -650 pips in net total, I exited my last positions today at the net win of 300 pips. After successful rescues on 2 pairs that I was comfortable trading I made one dead in the water loss. My euraud long position was -140 and it had broken all support lines and longer term trend.. as this pair is not on my usual radar I did not feel like I could time the rescues well, so I bit the bullet at -42 when I felt it hit the previous support, current resistance. Didn't want to sit another day babysitting it (in hindsight turned out i should have, then I would have ended in profit on all 19 pairs, lol). Made 1.5% of account.
WOW, At the bank, I had nearly 30 dealers on shifts to handle 4 major currencies.plus some more on strategic arbitrage and trading and more on the futures and money desk. Mostly a dealer focuses on a single currency pair. If any one can handle two pairs they are effectively watching crosses.
Most times I will manage exotic crosses and nostros benchmarked to USD deltas and sometime manage two pairs, if the need arises. But 19 pairs, is totally out of my league.
You gotta be super trader, or gambling. Consider slowing down , with real $$, babysitting 19 monsters, can burn you out very fast. Its ok if every pair is going fine, remeber when they work against you, it can be a mindfull.
Anyway, now I feel I can manage a trade.. not just watch and hope.
I have read the thread through thoroughly and I will experiment with the attack to learn it as I have understood it. As you said, fti, I don't have to copy you (I am sure it would be better to copy than invent my own, lol). Given the recent circumstances I don't want you to get involved, sorry for pushing it.
Of course I was gambling with the 19 pairs and I had to take 140-150 pip drawdowns on some pairs to capture 30-40 pips eventually (I must admin that for some I booked the profits without opening a chart, lol). This was just my way of learning position rescues & dead in water situations. A little fast forward maybe.
Even when I trade 1 or 2 pairs I like to watch all the majors to see if anyone is leading the dance.
Hi piccolo,
I think I may have alittle idea of what you are trying to do.
Generally , I am opinioned that rigidity in MO is dangerous,
but I think you may not be on the wrong direction intotality, if my guess of your MO is correct.
Be forewarned that to operate in stockist mode requires very high cap requirements for small returns. The economies of scale rule would be the backbone for your market endeavour.
If you may like to start a journal of your MO, I may be enlightened as to your
motivation and MO. Offhand I believe your MO is oto.
I enjoyed video immensely. I do voluntary work once a week at my daughter's school, and yesterday i experienced a similar political manouvre between two alpha males both of whom are 5 years old (albeit not as sophisticated. Maybe girls are more manipulative than boys.). We had really great weather so the kids were allowed to eat outside. One boy had a new lunchbox with his favourite football team depicted on it and was getting a lot of attention from the other boys. This didn't go down well with another boy, so he grabbed the lunchbox and threw it over the fence into a water filled ditch. Problem solved. All attention was then focused on him again for being so naughty. Not very sophisticated, but effective.
Hi DutchAngel,
I am glad that you enjoyed the clip.
I was a very surprised, as I have only boys, and they were not so sophisticated when they were preschool. Comparatively, they were shy and introverts then.
Needless to say, I grew up in very different setting.
I am mostly shocked at the sophistication and maturity.
Do not know whether to take this as orchestrated or for real.
LOL.
The world has changed, from the ground level up if this is real.
The alpha males I still believe, as similar to the incident you described.
Not tactful, mostly brute force.
But the girl was meticulous and manipulative, for lack of better word.
Most surprising was the organised nature of her frame of mindset.
Are girls like as in the video? Powerful mindset.
A dinosaur I do feel myself. Gotta let it settle in the mind yet.LOL.
OK, I will just shut up. My MO is under development and not written in stone.
I am just experimenting and training myself:
- not to take losses (manage the way out of them)
- to take dead in water losses
- aim small, better 5x 30 pips than wait for the 150 home run which could take a week or more on eurusd.
- to be swift in doing so
nothing kills the mood more than a TP missed by one pip. this is my new enemy.
Hi piccolo,
In actual fact, you don't have to shut up as you suggested.
I actually found your creativity interesting.only that I was afraid that you would run into a wall, doing what you do.
I figured that you are automating the decision process.
1. as suggested by your call sign descriptor.
2. That you are handling 19 pairs at a go.
3. Your take profit being uniform.
Further you describe to Lusan, that you could go to 100X of base, so you are stockist. ie behaving close to bank MO.
That which really stands out is that with 19 pairs , its impossible to dance.
Unless there is choreography. thats where I suggested rigidity.
Initially I felt you were quite easy going, but you seem to be getting agitated with people probing you, why, what's happening.
Probing is something ppl on the internet does, until they get to know each other better. Guess what me and leighsww went thru to bring my messages to those here.
So why are you getting agitated, anyone hit a sensitive vein? All Lusan was doing was to try to help you with some thoughts.And me too, trying to figure you out to help you if I can.
Lighten up , buddy, I hope is not after effects of dancing 19 partners, easy, breath, relax.LOL
@ picolo
There, I was right, much of the same, but then there's something thats very different. You are gutsy and have speed. Things any good dealer, must have, and what every burnt out dealer wish they still have.
Your quote is true and correct but I don't remember saying that in FF.
Keep us posted on your experiments, very interesting, there's an itcy here somewhere , but I can't manage to scratch it yet. I am sure the gang here will help me find that spot,
@ textor,
well beside expeience in reading market form, attention to less of multiple indicators and the same that confuses you will certainly help in your timing.
Ponder this, I hope its appropriate analogy.
If you sat at the table having dinner with your family. And a pretty young thing comes along and invites you to fun on the dance floor, what will happen if you went consulting your dad , mom, brothers, sisters before taking action?? Yes, you are likely gonna lose the window of opportunity.
on the same token, (the reliability of the form reads)
If there were 7 pretty girls in a huddle, whats the chance that you may get enough hints from the bits and pieces that you may get from them individually, to be able to figure out where they are going??
Think about it.
Oh don't worry about the whip, Leighsww 's the one that like to use it.
Me, I just take the concubines heads off if they are bad. By the way , where she??
regards
And just because the girls hinted that they are not going to the ball, and are at the salons, doesn't mean they are not going, its just not going NOW.
I used to have a booklet by the title "Gas station and Cathedrals" a strong thought came from there. Someone stole it, and Its been too long that I cannot remember the story to relate it to you.
Well it all started way back when there was no datafeed charts available.
The first I came into contact with was "compu charts" and later computrac.
initially we used to listen to market form and it registers in memory, and when compuchart came into existance , we had an adiitional aid, ie visually.
First mostly worked on per data charts, which we found to have too much info, nevertheless useful. WE found that unlike out brain, that sieves and compresses the "feel", the computer chart just machanically plots all, so no intelligence.
Personally for me, I chosed the 5 mins parameter.
The story goes like this...
When I was a senior junior officer, there was once a presentation meeting, and the presenters was from Australia. As this was something that management wanted feedback on( by survey forms). A group of 30+ dealers from multiple sectors was gathered at Sg. ( Closest sector to Aust) Some TMs SVP,VPs. However the presenters were late. I noticed that one by one the party left the room, by 5 minutes, all TMs and SVPs were out of the board room, mostly left were junior and mid seniors, by 15 minutes all, were gone. As I was part of host party, we had to wait for the presenters to "receive" them.
This was one of the observations of dealers attention tolerance.
In our Open market ops for CBs ,the active interventions normally is in the scope of about 15 to 25 minutes. By 30 minutes we already have to call up Reuters News and API to inform them of the CBs presence in mkts.
From these observations I came to conclude that 5 minutes was a good gauge of big players attention span and if the tenure was more than 30 minutes then , the sparring party was probably the BIG BIGs.
No real rocket science thingy, just observations.
Moreover, that being non geeks, we used charting services available in the markets, ie Compucharts, Metastocks, Teletrac, Telerate, Knightridder..etc
and most platforms for massaging the data feeds gave options in the sequences of 1 min, 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, Hourly, daily, weekly...
and almost everyone was limited to this parameters.
New dogs learn from old dogs and we go in the loop and here we are these being fixtures of charting.
any one like to test 6 min , or 7 min or 8 min charts?
You could start your own cult, you know.LOL
I always wondered why 6 was afraid of 7.
Thanks to and old friend kitty, now I know, 789.
A week ago I would have answered "no" to this question, but my 10 year old daughter did something this week that shocked me. She too displayed outstanding forward planning, extreme secrecy, powerful mindset and brilliant execution. I know the feeling. My teenage daughter holds the opinion that I grew up in the pre historic period.
So, could anyone explain this charts?
Notice the out of sync
Hi Lusan,
The mkt is not out of sync in terms of the movement, the out of sync is in the volitility. There seems to have movement in "turn based" style. Normally the Eur move first , then the GBP follows when the Eur stalls. Did you noticed this?
From experience, this signify , lack of liquidity. So the same monies is moving from one market then to another. Under this circumstances, traders must be careful as the volitility becomes very uneven and manipulation can surface.
Noticed how the market can do sudden and fast change in directional thrust then sudden lose the same momentum as suddenly as it came. This is deep sweeps..... lack of liquidity again. So volitility increases with wild and swift swings but prices are locked in a band.
regards
There is much propaganda circulating that the Feds will change stance, the end of the year. But I think the market still have not gotten over that the Feds had effectively devalued the USD. So any USD gains will be met with much disbelieve. There seem to be invisible hands try to turn the bear USD around, evident from the daily chart reads. But the turn around seems to not find stability, as the turns are v shaped and find no follow thru. Better stay on short charts now, Term traders may be at a lost for the direction, I think most already disorientated, the posiible reason for liquidity loss.now seem mostly marketmaker liquidity.
The eurusd and usdjpy pairs will move in the opposite direction 86% of the time and the gpdusd and eurusd move in the same direction about 91% of the time. These relationships change for a variety of reasons, the most common of which include diverging monetary policies, a certain currency pair?s sensitivity to commodity prices, as well as unique economic and political factors. I usually just tell myself that its fed interference when this happens.
Hi Dutchangel,
Good, by dealing standards . you have already recovered loss, (we benchmark to 75% of drawdown) . You are riding a recover strategy and have done well. Just keep to faith and push along. No need to rush, slow and steady. Well Done. Stay true to mindset, and don't read too much materials and opinions, just hold to your own rhythm.
fti, a couple of questions. I believe you use compound candle formations perhaps as some confirmation to your feeling the pulse/dance. Do you wait for a candle to complete before entering? Also, do you ever enter when you suspect a sweep is taking place?
Finally, how is reading that book coming along? Managed to finish it? I was also wondering whether you could leave some contact details with someone, maybe Leigh, in case of any future absences, so we can know your status and send our best wishes.
Hi Zoran,
You are right.
I use compound candle reads.
I don't see why it is important whether the bar is completed or not.
If you were waiting for candle completion, then you must be reading something already and is poised for trading.
During this phase , it would probably be level 2 or 3 or 4.
If It was scout, accuracy is of no significance.
at other levels. it is multiples of scout, so you can break that up to try at differnt parts of the bar. On average, it will stilll be on the bar's range , so it doesn't matter.
If this still isn't clear, then rephrase the question and I will try again.
About the book, I would like to afore thank you for your concerns.
Like I mentioned before copd is not reversable.
However, I am reading the book.
But I have the problem that normally after a few paragraphs of his braging how suceesful he is , I tend to get sleepy and drop the book.
Then I try to give the reading another chance, and forgetting where I stopped , start from cover again, and experience the same problem.
I think I have read the first 3 chapters like 3 to 4 time already.
Some how , I will manage to finish it before the year is over.
And I will come on here to give my testimony, if I did or didn't succeed.
Thanks again, Zoran.
There is a econ data release which caused G/U to move up.
4:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.2%
-0.5% -0.2%
By the way, fti. How would your treat news/econ data release?
Hi David, textor,
We have covered this before , I do it again just for your benefits.
I do not give a dime for fig releases, If there are critical Fed releases, or the tankan, then I try to SQUARE all exposures, under worst scenarios I delta neutral banks books.
the reasons for this is because figs are for economist, not for dealers.
When these figs are released for the world's jobless fortune tellers and real economist that plans for countries's think-tanks strategist, some hedgers and speculators get trapped in markets due to their stance. And after the fig releases try to correct their stances desperately.
As the desperations are some times very strong, dealers shade the prices to try filling the customers at extremes by fast market shading.
trading into figs is gambling. For speculators, it is solely that.
The extreme fills for hedgers have no real impact to them because , the price is of no significance to them. Term hedged positions stance is.
At the end of the day , whatever the data presents should have no immediate impact to markets, as the impact take about at least 2 quarters to filter into the economies. Not withstanding that the data may already be a couple of months lagging. So real time window range is about a year at extremes.
Moreover , before the data releases,relavent administrators are already privy to the figs. So if the data was unfavourable, strategies would have been arranged to stabilise the markets for physical traders to hedge or unhedge.
For example, if the figures shows that the US eco was in depression, after the initial volitility impacting the markets , the CBs would be seen doing necessary open markets to stabalise the markets. When this happens , markets will just
U turn on the initial impulse. If you were a speculator , trying to make a quick buck for the ride, then, may the almighty have mercy on your position.
Normally after a knee jerk impulse after fig releases, the volitility frizzles out very quickly to sleepy blue mountain stance. Those trapped , stays trapped, and hedges realigns.
Some unexpected data move the price so violently that it makes rescue or attack difficult. Or, as you mentioned once, not trade into news announcement?
I don't understand, what is there to rescue or attack when you should be squared??
And you always says "be nimble", and no prediction. But how? When we open a position, surely we have a prediction or expectation of which direction it goes and how much it will, right? If no expectation on price move, why shall we open a position?
"be nimble" means to be cautious. To be cautious not to be too highly exposed when either too deep in the money or too out of money. To watch your position sizes that there is room to manouver and that contingencies may be implimentable if required. To reduce size either to accomodate for increase voli or uncertainess. Not to allow greed to take over. What do you think I meant.
I initiate buying and skew buyings on the basis of strong chart formations and sellings on weak chart formations. what does predictions have to do with the positions?
For nimble, we can't be so 'nimble" that we will short when we see a red 5m candle, or buy when a green 5m candle. At least we have to put up with some retracement. A little bit confused, because, we only can tell if a wave is Wave 2 or Wave 3 only after it happened and comfirmed by another wave. But if it happened and confirmed, either it is too late or more risky.
Again, what has whether it is wave 2 or 3 gotta do with the positions.
At best, if it was wave 2, you would have pocketed good profits, and probably have a base position as well that is riding good profits.For wave 3 , you would be already be in super profits.
does this in any way explain the "volatility run of max 7 bars average 3" thingy from one of your earlier post, http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1423 ; that we were all trying to work out. It was kind of derive from one of your many acute observations.
yes, but it was completely way off? no, but it was completely way off? ;-)
The answer to your questions is a little hocus pocus, but I hope you can grasp the essence of the thought.
Ponder this 3 is a primary binary with one abnormality(oddity) or a pair with and odd if you like.
7 is a double pair with and odd.
If you understand the story of eden in the bible, after the creation of the heavens and earth (atmosphere & surface) then "land and sea" and its complimenting inhabitants, then the odd was created. (representative of himself) man. although in the process of creating man and eve, they were considered ONE. Eve was created from Adam. Althought sexually different, they were to be ONE, as eve was created to compimenet adam. So the double to one relationship. All in doubles but mankind in ONE. That's why no other creatures on earth enters into matrimony.
Therefore after the 7th, creation was complete and rested.
:referenced to Genesis, Bible,Torah.
Also ponder this, how many primary colours are there? 3 . correct
How many secondary colours derivations from the primary? 7 correct
Then the shades of the secondary, of different intensity.
:referenced rainbow and colours.
How may primary harmonic in sound ? 3 correct., low, flat, high
And how many secondary notes, derived A to G, 7 correct.
How many octaves? 3 correct, sharp, flat and minor.
then the pitch derivations from the basic octaves.
:referenced Music and Sound.
also reference String theory, Quantum physics.
If you understand plasma heat (NASA technology),
it is surprisingly 3 states of matter, solid, liquid and gases.
then within the ladder is the sub classifications of these. You gotta speak to scientist for details, My understanding is too elementary to explain the different levels up to slate level.
referenced Chemistry.
In the chinese Octogen , Pa Quah, I ching if you like, 2 binary of long , short with a radical. creating 8 possible combinations 2 of which is the solid and the broken deemed as the extremes. Combinationaly 6 +1 (2 extremes). Also the 3 opposing pairs.
:referenced I CHING.
In roulette. is 6 X 6 combinations in a circle with an oddity zero, making the possible combinations inexhaustable (infinite) colour of numerical combinations 3 red , black and green.
:Reference Roulete and Odds.
Sometime not so long ago , Afriend was explaining to me about data compression, and explaining something called "rice-compression",if not mistaken. About how with binary pairs, using hex and bits and bytes, a binany pair wit a predictor can guess lost data pieces, You gotta ask a geek about this one.
I can give you loads more but I think you get the idea.
Unfortunately , I am still unable to give you empirical evidence of this abnormality scientifically, so I will just say that 3 and 7 to me are important primes.
love your teaching style, I'm getting these new valuable distinctions in trading as you correct us, from many of your story-nuggets. gold.
with teaching to new trainee at Bank's Treasury, how did u handle new trainee that had bad days? and in low volatility days(limited market action)? and fti, u mentioned that attrition rate for traders in general is high.. what do u need to see in someone or what do they have to develop(show) that they got, to be accounted for further training and straighting up to become better traders? apologies for all these general questions.. just in a curious/questionary/(nosy?) mood today... feel free to bypass...
New trainee on bad days are assigned to the senior buddies to assist and learn. They are at liberty to return to their own portfolio the next daylight , with new lines.
It is very difficult to define the par excellence trainees,
Some of the qualities are Good health, speed, decisiveness( aggressiveness).
mathematically sound, ( can add 1+1), openmidedness and ability to learn and adapt. Normally decisive dealers have high egos, so we watch their exposures a little more closely.
There is no benchmark rules, not unlike trades, I tend to "feel" their characters. However, Noone gets to screw around with my book up 3 times and get away with it without review of skills.
anyway, cheers...
Hi gfsr,
I hope the above explainations helps your understanding.
Sure I am concerned but it is probably my own selfishness that would like to see you here writing to us instead of in a hospital bed. OK, so COPD may not be reversible but I suspect it can be controlled, however, that little scorpion probably has other things in mind. Not that health concerns will make a smoker stop! In fact it will probably make them light one up. There is a reason why twice as many cigarette butts are found outside the cancer ward than any other.
What I find interesting though, is that I have never seen people play games while reading a book except with this one. I know a few people who just couldn't seem to get past a certain section, like it's a horror book or something. I believe I know why but really, this book isn't that difficult or scary to read. I'm a pretty slow reader and I did it in a few casual days so I'm sure more capable readers like yourself can whiz through it. So seriously, will it really take over 7 months to read it?
How about starting half way through chapter 3 next time you pick it up? I don't remember this guy bragging but you can spare yourself the agony (for the fifth time) by skipping it?
Peace to you my friend.
Hi Zoran,
You may be right, It could be my mind is playing mind games with me.
Somehow, reading it make me very sleepy, I don't know why. And I do stop frequently asking myself question. Mostly , what kind of stuff is the 30 sticks a day smoker trying to sell me.
Tells me that I will probably quit, and then asks me to light up.
Funny thingy is I comply, and I didn't even had the want until the suggestion.
It seems there's some mind play there and , My mind seems to fight back.
Nevertheless, let see where it goes, really hard to get over the Chapter 3 mind block. Probably just me.
thanks, its a good thing, you are trying to do.
Just my bad.
regards
I think it's good that you managed to get to chapter 3 as the next step is to get to chapter 7.
Regards.
OK, OK, getting on it this weekend.
Something threw me off , when I read he said he smoked 30 packets a day. and managed to give up. My thought was if he smoked 30 packs a day, he would be dead in a couple of months. LOL
Could be typo, or my eyes playing tricks, I'll just ride this camel again, this weekend, when I can, LOL.
30 packets a day? That's impossible. I remember that he was a 100 cigarette a day smoker, which if you calculate, was a chain smoker - One after the other.
100/16 = 6 an hour = 1 every 10 mins
Ok, so I could have read wrong, wonder why?
But 100 sticks a day, he does it 1 year and will still send him to my state of heath in a jiffy. LOL
Ok , promise , I will try to ride this camel, this weekend.
Thank you for your patience, that helped me a lot.
Rgs,
Textor
Hi textor,
Glad to have helped.
Eg today , I got caught in 2 sweeps, on the wrong end.
If not for the nimbleness, I would have "died in the waters" from hindsight.
Luckky for me The bulk was out becafore I got caught again in another sweep , which invoked a heart stopping rescue to level 3 before I could see the light of day. Although I lost a little pips in the process, I dread , to think the alternative. if I had been stubborn. However , am glad for the day , made small pips for a heck of alot of battling.
Extraordinary, especially the first link. I used to hate potpourris, but I will have to rethink now...
Hi Jairo,
If you think the files on youtube sounds good. Guess what I am listening to on my sound system at audiophile resolution multichannelling HRDVD, mono block amplified stereo, with multisignal processor advance digital TBC , it will take you to 7 heavens. Its a journey all of its own.
This is especially so for Kitaro's Matsuri. That one takes me on space flights.
Actually, I also try to keep my positions reduced to safe size before news anouncement. You are right, it is MM which kills a trader' trading.
To be "nimble", you are definately right and confirmed my thinking. Great!
About smoking, I am also a heavy smoker, one box (20 sticks) of Light
Marbolo a day. Light Marbolo is better, it contains less nicoltine and tar. I am also trying to quit smoking for many years, but only succeeded for 3 days. To reduce smoking, I tried to eat some snacks, like peanuts etc.
About 12 Girls Band (12 女子乐坊), they were sort of popular about several years ago in China. I think they were hinted and followed Malisa Mae(陈美), a violin player.
I think its Vanessa Mae
Besr regards. Wish you Kai Xin!!
Kai Xin, Xie.
David
Hope that you are very clear about the mindset now.
Trade carefully , friend.
@ David , yes its old Hokkien song, but do you under stand the meaning ?
Careful , I am detecting possible turn of 2 Kingdoms, the USD may be doing an intermediate bottom. Watch out for uSD strength, now.
Hope you are in soaring spirites fti.
When I am trading I have this voice inside me which some times stops me from taking a trade even if i think I should or asks me to wait, and if i dont heed this advice I find my self in trouble, is this the feel we talk about, also can i read more about market's sigma and Vega you had mentioned much earlier?
Thanks
Hi ksl,
Sorry with late reply, was caught in discussion with property brokers. Its nice time to sell some props in Sg, Market very hot.
The voice you are talking about, it can be a voice of reason and good sense , if you have good experience then its voice of reason. It all depends on you, it could also be greed,or fear if that was the predominant frame of mind.However that s all you got to work with, and with some safety parameters you have to work it. I am afraid no one can tell you exactly how to deal with it, it all depends on your mindset.
Sigma is speed of move, you can determine that from the gradient or slope of price movement. The Vega is the volitility or rate of gyration of the market and you can determine that from the range (or Average true range) of the bars. Both can be guesstimated from the chart and must be read in relative to its historical characteristics. If you want to understand this in empirical formulation, you will find the treatment from a study of how options are priced and how they impact the premium pricing of the underlying instrument. They are sometimes refered to as "the greeks" as that is how they are empirically written. I use it in analytical visual method, so I deal with the guesstimates of the changing environment more than the formulation. For me its the impact that I watch out for (whether its thrust is intact or if its stalling), and not in absolutes. A lot of experience and time spent on the pair helps in the ability to recognise "the change" that is happening. I usually analyst on in the USD perspective and then relating to 3 kingdoms to determine the carrier currency.
I believe that your understanding is good as you are asking very performance critical questions.
For your questions on Hip and Lops, well many analyst use it in many ways, You may have come across it in some technical studies, Wilders has some specific on it but I am not at liberty to publish it, due to my respect and agreement for his teachings. In some circles, it is known as "High Point" and "Low Point". Sorry that I cannot be more specific.
Yes sir!! I understand the meaning, perfectly. Then Min Nan dialect is too different from Mandarin and Cantonese.
"Life is just like sea waves, there are ups and downs. Good luck, or bad luck, you have to carry on hard work. Success relies 30% on good luck, and 70% on hard work(fight and struggle). Fight and you will win."
I also noticed USD getting stronger, today banked in some pips by shorting G/U and E/U, still held some short positions but with -100 pips(I closed my long positions too early, and started U-turn too early last week, bad timing),
luckily, the equity is still growing, since I did rescue operation since May 20.
Thanks again and regards.
David
Hi David.
Its good that you understand, Lucky I didn't speak to you in my mother-tongue, Fu Zhou ( the main not the well dialects), You may think I came from other space, In some ways I am not really Han.
In essence , I think you are already quite clear about my methodology, Only that other knowledge may be creating small impasses for you. As you go along , you will slowly see the intricacies of my methodology , the questions then would be , if you can hold to the faith and work it true to basics.
Keep in mind always , that the difference between being in profit or loss , is separated by a thin line of the decision process. Small differences can be a bon or or curse , and only when the results are out that we will be wiser to its power. So remember, the difference between the loser and the winner is seperated by only a nose.
Good Fortune.
regards
@ Zoran, I am so sorry that I still have not finish the book you gave me. Seems I am reluctant, mostly because I seem not to want to give up the puffing. My bad. Nevertheless be assured of my gratitude for your attempts to help me. I will however , sound my trumpet to you , when I had achieve the said, and also of its impact if any. Thank you , my friend.
1. I notice that PA tends to bounce away on the first touch of a S/R. Is this correct?
No. it is wrong to assume that. Support /Resistance Zones are test zones. Mostly the market 's behaviour at these areas either are very volatile or congested. Being test zones, its behaviour would be derived by the volitility when this is tested. High volitility suggest continuation after a few sweeps, while low volitility thrust indicate distribution. It is impossible to read into distribution, suggest that positions be off loaded or squared off if distribution is detected, and to follow development until impulse re-surfaces.
2. Why is the london open a much better market than the US? The music is so different that I am considering starting waking up again at 3: am?
I do not understand what you mean by better.
Generally, the market structure and characteristics changes from sector to sector. This is due to the market liquidity differences caused by operators
and participants.
London sector seems most liquid, as it is a confluence of orders from Far East International trade, as well as the influence from Eurodollar deposits ( USD deposits held outside of US) predominantly oil money and activities from the swiss banking system, where lots of USD are parked dues to its non reporting environment. Although London may look to be where the volume congregates, in fact the bulk of the sparing takes place off London eg Dussodolf , copenhagen,antwarp etc. Activities in swiss gold, Middle eastern black gold , diamonds, cold war block USD switches (ie arms moneies) etc, imposes the liquidity. Of course this is complimented by the 24hr dealing rooms in Tokyo and to some extent HongKong and Singapore.
As most dealers around the world are sparring in the GMT zone, lots of name switches and realignment of credit risk takes place through the European Money broking system.
In contrast to London Zone activities, the majority of liquidity in North Americas is derivative of order activities of hedger position and realignments to US data releases and USD monetary and fiscal policies. These are normally done with by NY lunchtime, otherwise late afternoons. So the North American mornings have good liquidity while London Zone squares out.
In the NY afternoons, the derivatives exchanges is the liquidity, as US banks are not active in the direct, in the afternoons. So the market goes into non market maker territories, public domain if you please.
It is for these reasons that you may find that the character of the market may differ with the changing time zones. Its mostly due to market structure.
So many questions, I will answer them one by one slowly, as I am sort of drained now and am capitalising on the realignment to selling USD positions now.
When I prompted on the USD strength, please do not think that I am giving predictions.
I was just prompting from my position.
Evidently , if you had, danced the PA you would have picked up good trading opportunities on the bull USD.. However , as I will not be calling in all my actions ( as I cannot hand hold anyone while actively managing my own exposures), no one should follow my trading, rather you should think , if what you feel from the rhythm is in line with what I said. Moreover you have to dance as best to your financial status. You are in the deep end, so analyse , think then strategise your own MO.
Tired as I am I would like to highligh something , which I had alwaysbeen trying to encourage. And the opportunity has arisen for me to present it again.
Remember , that to trade profitably , you must as atrader , think, as that is your learning curve. Then making good use of your skills and talent is important. If you like the following story , say very well all that I had been trying to present.
Do you estimate (because your experience) the Vega and the Sigma with
the 12 sma in the 5 min chart?
Regards,
Textor
Hi textor,
The volitility and sigma has nothing to do with the hourly sma.
All the hourly sma can do is to benchmark for retime , reset timing of dance if you like to realign the rhythm when out of line with the exposure.
The vol and sigma is analysis of market behaviour, while hourly sma is timing corrector.
I hope I explained clearly.
how to dance with the market and not predicting?
I understood one of the technique used to dance were compound bar charts formations.
But isnt bar charts/candlestick formations are predictive as well? like when we see 3 black crows or a reversal bar and then we put in the attack/rescue troops, we are actually anticipating that a reversal/continuation will happen. But since a reversal bar doesnt always reverse the price, doesn't it mean we are (predicting/hoping) for it to reverse when we buy? Afterall trading is about probabilities right?
please help explain to me, thanks
Hi woopypooky,
What zenseven replied to you is very valid. That should be your basic frame of mind.
As i do believe non of us have the crystal ball nor the time travel machine, it is impossible to predict the outcome of any positions. Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead".
So if you understand the mindset, your position must not give you confidence when right, nor despair when wrong, you have to manage it as per what is happening in the market now, and now keeps changing as time forwards, and yor strategies have to be adjusted to the changing market , only mindset holds firm. Therefore as per your example, if you see the 3 crows, you may want to initiate some position, however its what the market does after you're position that determines your forward strategies, not the crows any more, they are history. New developments will tell you what you must do to be profitable.
Probabilities won't make you money , only tells you odds. Its your strategic reaction to market conditions that can make you money and your ability to keep in rhythm.
On the flip, odds mostly will serve to harden your ability to feel and may make you candidates for pain threshold tests. Try to stay nimble, but focused on the dance. Remember, rigidity kills.
You can chose to make the price patterns predictive indications, or you can use them as hints for strategic reaction, it depends on your mindset.
regards
Sorry but I will leave the other questions until tomorrow, sorry too tired already and still trading.
"Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead"."
So we are Position managers...oops!...
I wonder about the Mozart girl...It was really amazing!
Is the lesson, "pro traderd have clear and open mind...they are like that girl just listening once and playing that tune?"
Done for the day...Now I guess we might want to see the dollar getting weaker again...Ah...Maybe.....We will see...I do not know...
Hi Lusan,
Good thinking,
When you stop imposing wrong perceptions to your own mind, then, things begins to become clear to it.
As for the little girl, her mind is purely uninhibited, the piano to her does not look like what it is( she has never seen one), thats why she can handle all the viarations in harmonics and its flows. In her mind, her piano have no borders.
Since she has no sight, she lives in her mind mostly. Thats why her skills are so honed, because she is allowed to create what she percieves.
For her, if her sight is restored she may lose "her gift". And if she was to be "trained" by mankinds rigid education protocol (ie masters), she may just lost her gift as well. Here is a case of a mind , searching for itself. And in the quest finding its own skills. A mind like that should be nurtured, never taught.
How can one mind teach another, but to make another a carbon copy instead.
At least for now, as she is blind, she has all the space to be herself. As she grows, I believe, it becomes less and less. We are all mostly like her, if we enlighten ourselves to the watts within.
It is very human to destroy, in the name of betterment, only to rigidly stream thoughts and lose the real power instead.
Oic, i think i understand the answers to my question.thanks.Having the correct mindset is critical to trading success. Now i know there are 2 types of trading; trading with position managing and trading with predictions.
fti, why do you believe that you have to give something up? It really is just a short book and no-one is asking you to stop smoking while reading it. Why are you so reluctant? You can continue on with your life as you please when it is finished. Do you really believe this book will make you stop after what, 30 or 40 years of heavy smoking?
You know that you will never stop for health reasons. As far as I can tell, we almost lost you about a month ago and even you admit your "very very heavy smoking will probably switch off your lights". But you continue to do it. In fact, the cigarette companies love those TV ads that show the health risks and people dying. They know it helps sales.
So can you tell me the real reason for not reading it? You come across as a wise man with balls of steal, like one of those Kung fu masters sharing their wisdom with their students and beating up the bad guys when provoked. I remember watching some of those shows as a child but I don't remember any lighting one up after sharing their wisdom.
Anyway, I will leave you alone if you can tell me the real reason for not wanting to read the book (or if you read the book). Are you able to do that?
Regards
Hi Zoran,
I think your perceptions of me is not so accurate.
I am a simple man , only that I have traded the markets all my life that I know the truth about it, so I try to make my perspective available for all who may be willing to explore to find this truth for themselves.
The heros that you percieve me to be, well that s onlly in your mind, I am as human as everyone else. I much prefer to the alive, than be dead hero. However, I do believe that I will never live forever. Immortality is not the way of nature.
I have been to Fu Zhou twice, 1992, and 2000. It is a nice city, lot of Indonesian Chinese live there. Fu Zhou dialect is also different from Min Nan dialect(so called Taiwan language). Very difficult to learn. Wonder if you ever been to Fu Zhou. Fujian is one of the richest provice in China. The richest province is Taiwan, of course. And then, maybe Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shandong.
Thank you for your great teachings. But,
I have a problem I wish you could help me. My biggest problem is no ability to hold. You see, today I shorted E/U around 5737, but majority closed around @5690, now it is 5650; shorted G/U around 9810, but majority closed @9788, now it is 9730.
Of course, I am still holding some short postions now which is in fact set up one week ago.
Any good idea to improve my ability to hold? Of course, my size is sort of heavy, that is one of reasons I couldn't expose my positions too long in the market.
Thanks, regards.
David
Hi David,
I've not had any reasons to visit Fuzhou, China. 4 generation ago my great grandfather left there ,to do missionary work for the Methodist Church. Fuzhou is the capital of Fujian aka Fujian 頭 and being the influence to Min Dong language. Although traditionally called a dialect, Foochowese is actually a separate language according to linguistic standards, because it is not mutually intelligible with other branches of Min Language and other Chinese languages. I am the 龍頭長孫 of the 團幟 branch in the family book.
You already know where your problems are. You just gotta find your size equilibrium, and until you can find it, you will never solve your predicament.
Try to tame your ambitions to your capacity. Remember that, "large" or "heavy" is relative.
Not so simple I think, for the journey you have taken me on has been incredible. Still dance with two left feet, but the lessons on mindset I believe have made me a better person.
I thank you.
Hi aud,
I thank you too, for thanking me.
Now I can go tell my wife. She always says I am such a simpleton.
Textor,
the explanation.
1 = the first indication of key reversal.
A = the first impulse after the reversal, you may or may not have caught this bus. Most dancing , would have at least got a foothold there.
2 = the first pause , stall if you like, of the impulse.
chance to prepare and execute attack, or to bail out if you were caught on wrong foot.
then the 2nd impulse came after a shallow stall. Indicates possiblly downward press may be strong.
B = 2nd stall, notice shape of your "15 bars" shaped rounded pointing down, therefore , more weakness expected.
if stall was in shape of "C"(saucer shaped) then rounding would suggest bottoming distribution.
However since distribution was in shape of "B" likely to be down.
Note that ypu have rode 2 waves down. So if this was wave 3, then would be hairy. So scaling down skew woukld be prudent, as the nest test could be very violent either way.
So 3 came , how from here?
Send army home, and use scouts.
regards
It is easy from hindsight, mindset gotta be firm,when trading.
However I did trade this waves so gebnerally this were my MO then.
NOTE: Your attempt at the circle you marked suggests to me ,that you are trading "band breakouts", dangerous and late.
I was trading with as per your teachings and inching up regularly. I got confident and now (due to my lack of nimbleness, I think) , EURUSD snowballed against me.
I am Long 10 mini contract with average price of 1.5667. Just could not book loss in the "hope" that Buck can't be strong for long. Need your help and suggestion.
I had to infuse extra captial to avoid margin calls and now too scared to do any rescue. Lesson's learnt hard way to be nimble.
Any suggestion or advise will be really helpful.
(I think DutchAngel was in similar situation .....any words of advise DutchAngel)
Regards,
Hi hemal011,
Sorry that you are in a fix.
Let me give you some general advice first.
You may think that you are following my MO .
In fact I believe that you are not, for the following reasons.
1. If you have risked more than 10% on this battle, If you have not and have followed my advice then you will still have sufficient to rescue this situation.
2. You are not dancing the rhythm, if you think you are then something is out of line . as I can see lots of opportunities for good rescues. Moreover it seemed to me that you were trading against trend. ( big NO,No)
I cannot tell where you placed scout a. then rescued, probably more than twice ( just my guess), but the average you gave suggested that you traded against 2 bear impluse waves. Your rescue time window is getting shallow as we move into last leg. ie either 3 impulse or extended 5 wave impulse. Either way the impluse will be shallow and swift.
Otherwise you would have moved into changed trend and the impulse would be going your way, so you would have to re-access for attack instead as a means to recover. This requires lots more capitalisation. At your experience level, I dare not suggest this for you.
If you must.
break your positions into 3 levels, 3,7,10
treat that you have initiated 3 and 7 , so you are waiting for timing to send rescue 10. This must not fail. Time yourself well.
When the 10 is sent for the rescue, do not allow them to over stay.
enter on the turn as best you can, then take them out with whatever profits you can recover confortably, when taking them out take the 7 out as well.
Next attempt. rescue with 7 and take all out as best you can ride.
Calculate your per pip exposure , it is now USD 20 per pip move , so make sure that you can comfoetabily take pain for at least 150 pip.
You may not recover all your lost, probably up to 70% of lost. but this may recover some lost pips for capitalisation for next battles ahead. This seems your best options out. otherwise "bite the bullet" and cut the cancer.
Remember , never trade against day trend or hourly chart trend again.
Not unless you are expert and can maneuver like one.
Do re-read the thread again slowly, if suit, you have missed some critical knowledge and training.
Trade Carefully.
regards
PS If you are cash tight, the you may like to attempt what Lusan suggested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by luSan
Thoughts:
You are so far away... and 10 mini-lots!...so you are brave and probably already got a lot of foreign capital...and it is Friday...!!!
So either
1) Many rescues with level 1 and 2 when EMA(12) in 5M is long and away from resistance...
Edit: 2) Close some positions _yes, with a lose_ and use the funds to rescue the left behind...
3) Pull the plug and promise never to go against 15M...See it as a the price to learn a lesson...
it is easy to give advise but hard to take it...I got beaten into the ground today...I paid my entry ticket into a new universe and I learned 5 big lessons. I want to share it with you:
1. Friday trading...be specially careful because traders wrap the day and the day is very short...We have not much time to rescue.
2. End of month trading...probably avoid them...Winners want to lock their profits and loser want to reduces it...so very odd volatility...
3. Sometimes we must let go and fight another day. Do not hesistate to close a trade.
4. Trading is easy but it takes a long time to really learned. I must be patient. I learned something new everyday...so I need to keep my size small until the rate of learning slow down. I do not want to thousand dollars lessons that could be bought for pennies.
5. Confidence is built by practicing with small size and gradually building up. It is like weigh lifting...first we do 20 and then 30 pounds,,,until we reach our limits...there will be pain along the way...so we slow down but do not stop...
...still it hurts like hell...
Regards,
Lusan, I have no problems with 3,4 5
But about trading time.
I would like to add.
A normal trade day is one, where you come out with a profit for the day.
A great trade day is one where you came out with a profit , inspike that most of the day you were fighting with a loss book.
A bad day is one where you came out flat for the day.
The day that you come out with a loss, its a longest day.
To fix and stereo-type trading days or hours is unhealthy for a trader. It is rigid thinking. A good trader will stay with the battle , for as long as necessary to see accomplishment and to stay out of battles that are protracted.
Strategies for week ends and month book closings, should be designed for swift take downs, and therefore should be skewed-in for fast action.
I always remembered what my dad always warned me. 小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎
( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)
regards
My advice would be to read this thread and practice the principles. There is no hand holding here and if you get in trouble then you will normally have to learn the lesson until you get it.
As babies, when we learnt to walk, we all fell down and hurt ourselves. Just like riding a bike. But once you get it, it's with you forever. So keep at it and keep learning, but to have a true master here with us, it makes the journey ever so shorter.
My simple advice is, please do not over expose yourself. Do not be greedy as that is a sure way to kill your account. Find your balance.
One single little intervention in the smoking issue. Your trading career was (and is) brilliant. Your technique is excellent and difficult to master. You have done it. Saving the banks' books is stressful. Correcting other people's errors is stressful. Babysitting positions is stressful. Snowballing is stressful. The reward to risk of the MO is stressful. You achieved great success in all that. You are a winner. Many people (including winners like you) smoke to lower stress. I have never done it. I hate smoking but I understand the smoker.
As I have already said a lot of times, I am immensely thankful for all your efforts in teaching us. So I wish you a very long life, enjoying the success you so hardly conquered.
Glad you still maintain Chinese culture. On the contrary, I have met a lot Malaysian and Singaporean "bananas". You know what I mean. So to keep your family tree book, you need have sons.
Since 20 May, I started to short G/u and E/u. Bad timing. Until now, I am still holding some G/U short positions opened @9676 on average with -60 pips gain. However with some rescue operations, my equity is still growing during these days with rate of return which Buffet could kowtow to me .
The key is M/M. Thank you fti, I wish I could be one of your best students in the end.
By the way, where is Leighswww, our cheer leader. Wonder how is her trading going? Any news from her?
Best regards, sincerely.
David
Hi David,
You understand , correctly.
However 一山比有一山高 , 強還有彊沖手
(There is always a higher hill, there is always a stronger adversary.)
So humility will accord , the peace of soul.
Last I heard from Leighsww,
she was very busy settling her sister's affairs and business and also her own.
She is a very engaged and successful business woman so mostly her time is very precious. It is so very gracious of her to have given this thread so much of herself already.
Moreover, as she had revealed, she is on "secret" experimentation, and will be giving us a full performance report asap. So be patience, she's be here to whip us, as soon as she can find some time to spare, I believe.
hi guys, i want to ask how to determine the trend on larger timeframe? i.e 15M or daily
I used to have indicators such as median lines and moving averages to determine the trend. If prices are above the MA, then i would assume it to be uptrend.
Since you guys here trade naked, i am curious about it. And i want to join too.
Can i know what technique used to feel the trend? Is it bar charts/candlestick to determine your bias?
Hi woopypooky,
For daily as well asfor all timeframes, How is a trend determined?
Well basically the same, how any trend is determined. Check out the basic defination of a trend. Did you actually read this thread?
How is a depression defined? Well, the concepts are the same.
what technique used to feel the trend? Focus with brain, on behaviour of pulse. ie "feel" aka "form"
Read this thread slowly, no need to rush and miss out the info contained within.
regards
Be watchful, that USD/YEN is suggesting something, and the EUR and Cable is behaving quire.
" Never do this, never ask for other's views neither make predictive assumptions.
ASSUME= makes an ASS of U and ME. "
Another life lesson we all can use... when we are by nature a meaning making machine. Thanks.
When you say "I try to recognise the compounded formatioms in the bar charts."
I have studied steve nison's book Beyond Candlesticks and patterns from http://thepatternsite.com/
is there any other source we can use because when you say some thing like
" if stall was in shape of "C"(saucer shaped) then rounding would suggest bottoming distribution.
However since distribution was in shape of "B" likely to be down."
I know that I am missing out a lot.
Thanks
ksl
Hi ksl,
What I highlighted is basic continuation and reversal characteristics of bar charts. This is bare basic, so any tech analyst can spot it on the big picture patterns,
Distributions are very hard to decipher, whether if its continuation or reversal. The trick is to use scout positions. From experience, I find that the pulse becomes clear if having positions, whereas without exposures it seems harder to feel the form thats developing. But of course the scout can be wrong, then you know what you must do.
The key is in the consistency, your scout can be consistently wrong or consistently right. It depends on your skill & experience in the markets. No matter if you are either, you can formulate good strategies to handle the market. And of course your MM helps a lot, in cases where you are mostly wrong.
Your exposure coupled with your attention on the volitility of the distribution will que you into the "form" readings.
It is very difficult to describe. Once you tune into it from practise, you can actually "feel" it.
regards
PS: Some of my trainees (at banks)had ever asked about having deployed scouts numerous times and still be on the wrong side of the impulse. In these instances , it is very clear that you will be against the major trend. So you must formulate careful exit strategies as you are not supposed to trade against the trend. Under these situations ,the exitings can become painful and labourous.
Rule of thumb is to risk enter positions quickly and when the feel is discovered, to exit the positions slowly with masterful strategems, for book preservation.
Hi All,
So bernanke speaks, but what is he saying.
Are they gonna spend less on the fireworks, or is yhere gonna be sponsors (suckers). LOL
Looks like 4th july fever is alive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.
High oil prices are a double-edged sword that can both put a damper on already weak growth and spread inflation,
Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off.
Economic growth in the current quarter, he acknowledged, is "likely to be relatively weak." Even as he reiterated the Fed's hope for a pickup in growth in the second half of this year and into 2009, Bernanke said the economy continues to battle against a trio of negative forces _ a housing slump, credit problems and fragile financial markets.
Hi,fti! How are you doing today? You did not answer my question, I' like to ask it again.
Alex
Hi Alexfot. I am doing very well , thanks.
I thought I already answered this question.
If not here goes again.
The Structure of the FOREX market is OTC (over the counter), so evry body is going to every body elses counters and asking for a bid and offer price to trade.
Lets say I am tier 1 bank LMB,
You see the market data feed is trading 1.0000/02
You come to my counter asking for price to deal for 10 mio USD
I quote you 1.0050/52. So the answer is YES I have the freedom to move market wherever I like to.
But if you can buy your USD at 1.0002 somewhere ,as suggested above.
You would surely sell me the 10 mio USD at 1.0050 and buy elsewhere at 1.0002 and get an arbitrage profit of 48 pips in 1 second.
And will continue to buy elsewhere and sell me until you cannot arbitrage for profits.
So the answer is also NO , in that we cannot simply quote wherever we want to as we carry a ball and chain of 2 pips spread. and if we where out of the market , someone will arbitrage for profits.
Hope you understand now.
regards
This is not so for retail., as you trade with leverage facilities from the broker, you have to buy or sell with them.
So the direct answer to your question is , YES market makers can move the market anywhere they like , even without dealing. BUT the market can catch them for arbitrage if it disagrees, ( if they can profit by the actions)
"Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.
Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off."
Maybe this is the reason why USD strenthened.
The market reacted so voilently, almost 200 pips in one hour for E/U!
Why GBP/USD is stronger compared to E/U, Fti?
Regards.
David
Hi David,
Why?
Well I never ponder, why? Only what I must do "strategies" to get into the flow.
"The US dollar was on the defensive heading into the US session before Fed Chairman Bernanke finally conceded that the weaker dollar was contributing to higher inflation in the US."
From the commentary statement that I read, it seems that the chair may be saying that he blundered when he knife drove the US rates. Question is what will be his next action. Hope that its not another blunder. Like raise rates!!
Lets see if he can find the rates equilibrium first before he acts again.
I don't know wheresome people read their economics,.
But of course when they move to devalue their currency ,
their PPP (purchasing power parity) loses ,
so prices of good & services will inflate.
Why are they so surprised that their action is causing inflation.
What's really horrible is that their actions is causing troubles in other economies, through the black gold (oil) proxy.
My god, what schools didi they go to?
So be watchful, there seems no real reasons for USD strength.
However stay nimble for new developments always.
Obama wants change, lets see if he got what it takes!!
I am fully aware that I have a strong tendency to fight the trend. I know there are always conflicting trends in the market but almost invariably I end up going against the trend I have initially chosen to follow! I have survived through prudence (small lots) and patience. But I am becoming tired of this. I am not sure if it is indiscipline or the scorpion in me (or both). What can I do to overcome this? Hmmm... I am 48 years old but not closed to changes... (hopefully).
Hi Jairo,
I believe your style of trading is called contrarian trading.
If this is your style , then trade congestions,
once you see trend developing get out.
This is a "personality complex".
You tend to like to go against the grains of things.
If you like ,"Go against the crowd" tendency.
you can only change this behaviour by under-going hypnosis correction.
This is serious matter, seek professional assist.
Were you very rebellious , when you were young?
I'm relatively new to this Forex War. I've done away with indicators as such. Becuase indicators are just an algorithm of price to some extent and just follow price.
At this stage I'm more interested in Previous Highs and Lows. Areas on the Chart where Price is respecting a certain level. Which means once it reaches a certain level it is either bought or sold.
Trend Lines, Support and Resistance Lines formed from previous highs and lows is about as simple as you can make it.
Follow the trend at all times. Trading counter trend is dangerous to say the least. Trading the Ranges is easier. Using stops just outside the range is the best way. When price breaks the range stops protect you. It's up to you to jump on when the Range Breaks.
"Using stops just outside the range". Careful with that, it amounts to trading breakouts. This is a whole different school of discipline. Be wary of sweep ranges.
Technically speaking you could draw a line anywhere on the chart where price action is. You could say to yourself. Ok if price passes this line I will buy long or sell short. You can't make it any simpler than that.
Give this deeper thought. Generally, you are contradicting your earlier thoughts. At this stage I'm more interested in Previous Highs and Lows. Areas on the Chart where Price is respecting a certain level. Which means once it reaches a certain level it is either bought or sold.you said this earlier.
If anyone knows a great exit strategy to take profits I'm all ears. Taking the losers is easy. Knowing when to take the winners is Very Hard.
Taking profits, however much or little is a good exit strategy.
"Excellence, we can achieve, perfection is God's work".. WB
---There is only one Certainty in Trading, There is no Certainty ---
This is because the only constant in markets is change.
Try to understand the thread better and it will come to you.
Finally someone explains clearly the foundations we need to trade intelligently.
I am a novice trader and have spent the past year+ mostly in demo accounts, study, practice, backtesting different approaches, EA development, etc. But until reading this thread, I did not consider myself to have a strong enough foundation for live trading. Now I'm at least pointed in the right direction, and standing with two feet on solid ground.
After a week of trading based on these principles, our troops are up 40% on a demo account, with max drawdown < 10% (while experimenting with some aggressive rescue tactics), typical drawdown < 5%. All attacks finished in the positive, so drawdown is only ever seen between the launch of an attack and the inevitable victory. This is part of the beauty of the Art of War MM strategy, IMO, as real drawdowns (losing battles) will be rare, allowing for more consistent geometric growth of the account.
Even with all my room for improvement as a trader, I "get" the basic approach and it suits my style and personality very well.
My first post here is just to give a big heartfelt thank-you to brother FTI for sharing so generously and to all active participants on this thread for keeping it alive.
Bless.
Hi onedrop,
Welcome.
Thanks for your kind words.
Nice to hear that you are doing well in your demo.
Trade well.
Through my weekly adventures I came across some wisdom this week that I thought I would share in this thread. To fti for one reason and everyone else as a compliment to this thread. To all of our health and well-being!
Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.
Hi Zoran,
Wow, you quote the bible well.
You seem to have found the "way".
Good for you.
Right mindset, right behaviour, right reaction. right results.
Trading congestions, or ranges is easy for the counter trade, as the boundaries or the range are easily identified, trade the edges taking profit at the other side, if you like leave some to try to break the opposite side in the direction you feel the trend will go, normally in the direction they entered, unless its an exhustion range then normally a small retrace before resuming.
Fwiw,
You are right, but thats only part of the dance MO.
However, it is the critical part of the dance.
The teleporting of mind, to trend mode and the timing of it, is also essential for book health.
Your advise to Jairo is sound, and helpful for his peruse.
Good music. Market wizard that Ed Seykota. Never knew he sings though.
Thanks for link.
Some sound MO he trades by, for a futures trend riding.
The train cho cho beat , reminds me of the hobo traders MO. aka Adam Theory.
I know that Seykota is a famous trader, but
I don't know about his work, what market he trade, etc....
I found the music funny....
Regards,
Textor.
Hi textor,
Ed is one of the big boys of futures trading. (Market wizard)
His MO is Dochanian style, ie trend rider(follower) .
This MO is also the MO of Richard's turtle traders.
Main component is
"Cut losses Short , let profits run."
This is good MO for managing term money.
But it has its weaknesses, as experienced by Richard in 2000.
My personal view is that the EUR 5m and 15m look good for a sell around now, but this is against the direction of the 1hr, and the 4hr and daily seem congested.
to help with my understanding of the "feel" of the market i was wondering if in a situation like now beacuse of the higher time frames it would be unsafe to short the EUR?
Hi Acs,
Yes , currently trading.
I had been short 1.5800+ levels had been riding , on 5 wave of the 3 rd.
Whats happening is that because of the fed chair , suggesting that he may have been too heasty in the rate cuts, and had caused inflation. He effectvely is saying , no more cuts expected anytime soon. I think he is taking a lot of fire from the economies that are hyper inflating because of black gold proxy response to the devaluation of the greenbag. So I shall be expecting to meet less of the feds in the market place for a while.
But remember that he iterated that his action of lower rates is correct protocol, so I would read him as saying that he has done the necessary , althought a little too hastely, nevertheless he feel that his actions will bring longer term benefitd to the US economy.
This is the reasons why we are experiencing knee jerk actions in the markets and the crosses are going quire. In reality the markets are non directional, and reacting to any impac info that floats into sight.
To tame this directionless terrain, try to follow the flow , both long and shorts can be profitable. But skew down exposure front end and weight on the rescues (rear) for stronger fire power.
Keep the crude prices in sight, for possible hints, notice that the OPEC is too silent, something may come up.
Keep gold in sights, for inflation in PPP.
If you find the fundamentals front too confusing , then stay peeled on the market rythym and dance both-sides of the dance ,try not to overstay.
Both the daily and hourly is indicating USD weakness agst EUR and cable, but very strong against yen. however its testing dead zone. (S/R) So can be volatile and playing both ends.Like I said, can make money on both longs and shorts, only try not to be too committed to either direction until the market form changes.
General bias is Devalued USD scenerio, gotta dance the form to find the way that this will pan out. I am inclined to be more aggressive USD seller vis a vis when USD buying.
regards
Just that you are aware, 15 min is a spill over managed rescue chart, so does not come into the analytics picture. and i do not use 4 hr charts. It does not mean that you should not use them, just that its is off scope for discussions with me.
Hi All,
Many repeated questions.
So sorry. Am drained today, dealing with the Benana Bull----s. Was good ride today on the greenbag bull, however my energies are low , so I will chat when suits.
Now I will just relax with my favourite Japanese Song.
Its a beautiful song, so join me please.
Hibari Misora's "Like the flow of the river "
(Kawa no nagare no yō ni) (川の流れのように)
This was the last song released by Japanese enka singer Hibari Misora, January 11, 1989 just before her death June 24,1989. Composed by Akira Mitake, Lyrics by Yasushi Akimoto.
Hibari Misora's "Like the flow of the river "
(Kawa no nagare no yō ni) (川の流れのように)
This was the last song released by Japanese enka singer Hibari Misora, January 11, 1989 just before her death June 24,1989. Composed by Akira Mitake, Lyrics by Yasushi Akimoto.
WOW fti,
I am blown away by the music specially the first one I belive her last song.
I do not understand japnese but then music has its own language
Hi,
for you.
川_の_流_れ_の_よ_う_に
Like the flow of the River
Without knowing it I have been walking, along a long and narrow path.
Looking over my shoulder toward my home village far away, and the road, rough and winding,
I find myself to have been leading a life, without even a map for guidance.
Ah, like the flow of the river, gently, time, little by little, goes by;
Ah, like the flow of the river, uninterruptedly, the sky is now dyed rosy-pink by the dusk.
To live is to make a journey, always on the move,
with a lovable companion close by, searching for the dream world.
Even though I'm now forced to walk down a muddy road in the rain
I believe I'll be blessed with glorious weather again one of these days.
Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, the time of the year is also moving,
now on the tiptoe of expectation, toward the snow-thawing season.
Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, as long as I live, I'd like to feel the murmuring of the blue stream.
I am still learning...it is tough transitions...specially when US news are all over during the trading day...I am taking notes and modifying my style...it is getting easier and easier as long as I stay away from news announcements...but then I might end up in a range...and happy!
Yes...congestions are wonderfull...they are teaching me an important lesson: when my trend is broken, I MUST get fast out of the way and reverse...Indeed, the only risk of a congestion is when we try to impose our will on PA..dilussional, madness and a loss!
As part of my transition I created my 10 trading commandments. Here I go:
You shall
Never trade during major news
Never have more than 3 open positions
Never trade aggressively against the hour trend
Never trade against the 5M trend
Never stay on a broken trend
Never trade with low volatility
Never execute more than 2 rescue operations
Never trade without a relaxed and clear mind
Never trade beyond your entry signal
Never trade with the hope of winning
I believe that they will evolve with time but they are the law of my land...They costed me blood and $$$. I wonder what the supreme court will say? I mean...fti!
Regards,
Hi Lusan,
This, the deep end, no more baby pool.
Looks like you're turning Moses already.
This the new testament.
As you go along you will find more and more tweaks.
Then you will revert back to basics, and it will encompass all.
Ahh, I have been wondering about that. Reversing but I am not certain. If my rescue point is 100 or 200 pips away, do I wait, perhaps unload a bit and rescue or do I reverse?
Hi Zoran ,
I say again, 小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎
( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)
When you are scout mode, turning is easy ,
when you are in rescue , turning leaves too much resources behind.
Turning is an option for sudden change of impulse,
and only when in scout mode or early level rescue.
when you are in rescue or attack mode , then you are committed,
for good or bad, in sickness or health, till d do you part.
therefore turning is no-longer an option.
Note that when you decide to turn.
you have to move to the next spiral within the spiral,
therefore you move to stage 2 of the preceeding stage.
This is very cap intensive protocol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoran
You see, what confuses me is that bulls make money and so do bears, but pigs get slaughtered. Is this restricted to congestion areas or can we break the rule otherwise?
Maybe fti can clarify?
When in congested band , stay with the scout ,
either in bull or bear mode never both. Never be a pig.
When in trend mode, stay with trend, if scout mode turn on wind.
If committed, first rescue then after successful rescue, try to turn on wind.
(remember that by now it should mid trend levels [probably wave 2 or 3 ]therefore skew down the risk, to accommodate attack.) . Similarly Again never be a pig.
regards
USD strength seems manipulative. Benana lip intervention is bad strategy. Hourly Saucer shape charts indicate market will. Time your strategies well.
Now during those times when we must bite the bullet, not so much about sailing in the wind but when we hit the unexpected hurricane, a time when our scorpion comes to visit, do we just bite the bullet and walk away? What do you normally do or recommend in those situations?
Hi Zoran,
I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.
OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education.
Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes.
If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread.
If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.
If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .
If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".
I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.
Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.
Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.
Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.
The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.
This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."
I changed No. 9 to: "never be a pig on reversal."...which means: if the trend change, then I reverse but twice as aggresive...why? because if I am correct, then I am at the beginning of the trend...If I am wrong?...Out out out...and pause...I began practicing compliance to law #9
Regards,
This is correct, but read my response to zoran above.