G7 coal exit goal puts focus on Germany, Japan and US
A G7 countries commitment to phase out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 focuses attention on Germany, Japan and the US for charting a concrete coal-exit path, but provides some flexibility on timelines.
The G7 commitment does not mark a departure from the previous course and provides a caveat by stating the unabated coal exit will take place by 2035or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member.
The announcement calls for accelerating "efforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal power generation", but does not suggest policy action. It calls for reducing "as much as possible", providing room for manoeuvre to Germany, Japan and the US. Coal exports are not mentioned in the communique. Canada and the US are net coal exporters.
France, which predominantly uses nuclear power in its generation mix is already scheduled to close its two remaining coal plants by the end of this year. The UK will shut its last coal-fired plant Ratcliffe in September.
Italy has ended its emergency "coal maximisation plan" and has been less reliant on coal-fired generation, except in Sardinia. The country has 6GW of installed coal-fired power capacity, with state-controlled utility Enel operating 4.7GW of this. The operator said it wanted to shut all its coal-fired plants by 2027.
Canada announced a coal exit by 2030 in 2016 and currently has 4.7GW of operational coal-fired capacity. In 2021-23, the country imported an average of 5.7mn t of coal each year, mainly from the US.
Germany
Germany has a legal obligation to shut down all its coal plants by 2038, but the country's nuclear fleet retirement in 2023, coupled with LNG shortages after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, led to an increase in coal use.
Germany pushed for an informal target to phase out coal by 2030, but the grid regulator Bnetza's timeline still anticipates the last units going offline in 2038.
The G7 agreement puts into questions how the country will treat its current reliance on coal as a backup fuel. The grid regulator requires "systematically relevant" coal plants to remain available as emergency power sources until the end of March 2031.
Germany generated 9.5TWh of electricity from hard-coal fired generation so far this year, according to European grid operator association Entso-E. Extending the current rate of generation, Germany's theoretical coal burn could reach about 8.8mn t.
Japan
Japan's operational coal capacity has increased since 2022, with over 3GW of new units connected to the grid, according to the latest analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
Less than 5pc of Japan's operational coal fleet has a planned retirement year, and these comprise the oldest and least efficient plants. Coal capacity built in the last decade, following the Fukushima disaster, is unlikely to receive a retirement date without a country-wide policy that calls for a coal exit.
Returning nuclear fleet capacity is curtailing any additional coal-fired generation in Japan, but it will have to build equivalent capacity to replace its 53GW of coal generation. And, according to IEA figures, Japan will only boost renewables up to 24pc until 2030.
The US
The US operates the third-largest coal-power generation fleet in the world, with 212GW operational capacity.
Only 37pc of this capacity has a known retirement date before 2031. After 2031, the US will have to retire coal-fired capacity at a rate of 33GW/yr for four years to be able to meet the 2035 phase-out deadline.
Related news posts
Australia’s Queensland bans CCS in Great Artesian Basin
Australia’s Queensland bans CCS in Great Artesian Basin
Sydney, 31 May (Argus) — Australia's Queensland state government announced today it will ban carbon capture and storage (CCS) in its portion of the Great Artesian Basin. Greenhouse gas (GHG) storage activities, including CCS projects, will be permanently prohibited in the basin as the government looks to protect its water resources, Queensland premier Steven Miles said on 31 May. The ban, which will be legislated, also includes enhanced oil or petroleum recovery activities that use a greenhouse gas stream. Activities involving GHG storage or the injection of GHG streams into underground formations may be able to continue in other parts of the state, subject to existing assessment and approval processes. The government will appoint an expert panel to review projects outside the Great Artesian Basin, which will report back in 2025. The Great Artesian Basin is Australia's largest groundwater aquifer. It is made up of several sedimentary basins spanning over 1.7mn m² across Queensland, the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales. Water extracted from the basin is used for agriculture, irrigation and stock watering, as well as for industry and household supply in over 80 Queensland towns, according to the government. Queensland's Department of Environment, Science and Innovation last week rejected the environmental impact statement for commodities producer and trading firm Glencore's CTSCo Surat Basin CCS project, which aimed to demonstrate carbon capture from a coal-fired power station and the permanent storage of CO2. The project was unsuitable to proceed because of the potential impact on groundwater resources in the Great Artesian Basin, the department said. The CCS ban follows the state's decision late last year to ban unconventional oil and gas extraction in its portion of the Lake Eyre basin to protect inland waterways, as well as conventional production alongside rivers and on floodplains. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump found guilty in criminal 'hush money' case
Trump found guilty in criminal 'hush money' case
Washington, 30 May (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump was found guilty today on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in relation to the reimbursement of a $130,000 payment to an adult film star ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The unanimous guilty verdict, from a 12-member jury in New York, will inject further uncertainty into the presidential election on 5 November, where Trump is the presumed Republican nominee and is leading in many polls against President Joe Biden. Trump is the first former US president to face a criminal trial, and his conviction means he will run for office — on a campaign focused in part on rolling back energy sector regulations and expanding drilling — as a convicted felon. Sentencing is scheduled for 11 July. Trump has argued the criminal charges, filed by New York state prosecutors, were "ridiculous" and were a politically motivated attempt to interfere with his campaign. At trial, Trump's attorneys argued against the credibility of a key witness, Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen, who testified that Trump directed the falsification of the business records to conceal a "hush money" payment to the adult film star following an alleged affair. "This was a rigged, disgraceful trial," Trump said following the verdict, "but the real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people, and they know what happened here." Despite the conviction, Trump, if elected, could still serve as president. Trump could face up to four years in prison, and sentencing will be decided by the judge overseeing the case. Trump is separately facing dozens of other felony charges in federal and Georgia state court, but those cases have faced delays and may not go to trial before the election. President Joe Biden's campaign said Trump has "always mistakenly believed" he would not face consequences. Biden's campaign said that despite the verdict, it would be up to voters to decide whether Trump is re-elected. "Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president," Biden's campaign said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Takahama reactors win nod to extend lifespan
Japan’s Takahama reactors win nod to extend lifespan
Osaka, 30 May (Argus) — Japanese utility Kansai Electric Power has secured approval to continue operating the 870MW No.3 and No.4 reactors at its Takahama nuclear power plant past their 40-year lifespan. Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) on 29 May granted approval for the Takahama reactors in Fukui prefecture to extend their operational lifespan by 20 years to 60 years. This comes 13 months after Kansai filed an application in April 2023. The Takahama No.3 and No.4 reactors started operating in 1985, meaning they would reach their 40th year of operation in 2025. Japan's nuclear guidelines in principle limit a reactor's service lifespan to 40 years. But the rules allow nuclear operators to extend the lifespan by up to 20 years just once with permission from the NRA. Last year's update to the nuclear rules , which will take effect in June 2025, will also allow nuclear operators to use reactors beyond the maximum 60 years by excluding the time spent on stricter safety scrutiny following Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. This is subject to approval from the trade and industry minister. Tokyo is gearing up efforts to restore more nuclear capacity at existing reactors to enhance the country's energy security and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under the current basic energy policy, Japan aims to cut GHG emissions by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year against the 2013-14 level. This goal assumes nuclear will make up 20-22pc of the power mix, up from 9pc in 2023-24, requiring the restart of many more reactors. Japan currently has 33 nuclear reactors, with 12 operational that comprise 11.6GW of power generation capacity. To achieve the 2030-31 nuclear goal, Japan needs to increase operational capacity to 21-23GW, based on Tokyo's power generation target of 934TWh in 2030-31. This suggests Japan would have to restart all five reactors, which a combined capacity of 5.5GW, that have already passed the NRA's safety scrutiny and many of the reactors that are currently under the NRA's investigation, whose capacity totals 7.9GW, over the remaining six years. The government started discussions to review the energy policy on 15 May, aiming to revise it by the end of this fiscal year. It is still unclear what year it is targeting and what ratio will be set for nuclear and other power sources in the new policy. But the deliberation would form a key part of efforts to update the GHG emissions reduction goal, ahead of a submission of the country's new nationally determined contribution in 2025, with a timeframe for implementation until 2035. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pasture-for-biofuels can boost LatAm output
Pasture-for-biofuels can boost LatAm output
Belo Horizonte, 29 May (Argus) — Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Guatemala can double their combined biofuel production by turning existing pasture land into crops for biofuel feedstocks, according to a University of Sao Paulo professor. The four countries already produce 24pc of global biofuels, including 29pc of all ethanol, Glaucia Mendes Souza said during a G20 Energy Transition Working Group meeting in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, today. But converting pastures to grow sugarcane, palm oil, corn and soybeans could increase that significantly and cut total CO2 emissions, she said. Souza highlighted six other nations with potential to greatly increase biofuel crops: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Thailand. If these 10 countries combined can turn 11pc of their current pastures into land to produce biomass or biofuel feedstocks, global biodiesel production would grow by 45.7bn l/yr (792,550 b/d), while global output of ethanol could increase by 64.7bn l/yr, she said. Brazil alone would increase ethanol production by 55pc. The country produced 35.4bn l of ethanol in 2023, according to hydrocarbons regulator ANP. For the four Latin American nations converting that much land toward biofuels would avoid 120mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)/yr, up from the 63.8mn t of CO2e/yr avoided under current biofuels production, Souza said. For all 10 countries a combined 300mn t of CO2e/yr could be avoided. Brazil has the opportunity to "set an example" to the rest of the world, Souza said on the sidelines of the conference, as the country already serves as a benchmark for biofuel production. Key programs, such as the Renovabio biofuel policy, have helped turn Brazil into an energy transition leader, she said, while the pending fuel of the future bill could further those moves. But Brazil has plenty of room to improve, especially in the environmental arena, she said. "Brazil's deforestation rates contaminate our entire speech," she said. The rate of deforestation in Brazil's Amazon basin in the first quarter fell by 50pc from 2022 to 2023, and is down by 40pc in the first quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, according to government figures. But deforestation in the Cerrado tropical savanna biome, mostly located in the main Brazilian grain-producing state of Mato Grosso, grew by 68pc in 2023 from a year before, according to NGO Mapbiomas, which maps the country's land. Souza also called for more fiscal incentives for using crop byproducts, such as sugarcane bagasse, to produce biofuels. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more